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<ul class="summary-list"><li>North Korea conducted a short-range ballistic missile launch hours before US Election Day.</li><li>Data shows that North Korea ramps up its missile and military activity around US elections.</li></ul>North Korea fired off multiple short-range ballistic missiles just hours before Election Day in the US and just a few days after an intercontinental ballistic missile launch.Research has shown that Pyongyang typically engages in provocations, such as displays of its prohibited missile program, around US elections, stirring up a certain degree of trouble. The latest provocations come as North Korea draws closer to Russia and amid confirmations that thousands of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-north-korea-would-go-to-war-for-russia-2024-10">North Korean troops are aiding Russia in its war against Ukraine</a>.On Tuesday, North Korea launched several ballistic missiles toward the East Sea/Sea of Japan, South Korea's military said. Japan also confirmed the launch, with its defense ministry saying the missiles were believed to have landed in the sea shortly after launch.The launch came on the heels of a test of North Korea's newest intercontinental ballistic missile believed to be capable of striking the US mainland. The missile, identified as the Hwasong-19, is a massive solid-fueled missile.The ICBM launch, which was directly overseen by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, was met by a joint US-South Korean-Japanese drill, which included the involvement of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/b-1-bomber-message-iranian-proxies-us-air-force-colonel-2024-2">US B-1B supersonic bomber</a>. The exercise drew criticism from Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, who accused the US and its allies of engaging in aggressive and dangerous actions toward North Korea.North Korea's missile launches didn't necessarily come as a surprise to the US and South Korea, the latter of which said that Pyongyang was likely to engage in provocative military displays ahead of the US election.<div type="image" title="North Korea's &quot;Hwasong-19&quot; missile rises into the sky with smoke trailing from its tail." height="3321" width="5000" msid="114992212" hostid="261" sizebytes="156092"></div>Past Korea research has suggested that North Korea prioritizes such showcases around pivotal moments for Washington, such as presidential elections.A <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://beyondparallel.csis.org/dprk-provocations-likely-around-u-s-presidential-election/">report</a> by Victor Cha, a leading Korea expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the former director for Asian Affairs on the White House's National Security Council, shows patterns in North Korean behavior around US elections.Over the course of 32 elections since 1956, the report found that the provocation window has narrowed over time — meaning "North Korean provocations have clustered increasingly closer to US presidential and congressional midterm elections." That trend has been especially evident, the 2020 report said, in the last few elections.Cha wrote that "the average window for a North Korean provocation bracketed around all US national elections (i.e., before or after)," under Kim Jong Un, is 4.5 weeks. That is a much tighter window than the world saw during the rule of his predecessors.Notably, these numbers don't include the 2018 midterm election, "where there was a prolonged and anomalous period of no provocations as a result of the Trump-Kim Singapore summit," the CSIS Beyond the Parallel report said. During former President Donald Trump's first term, his priorities in US-North Korean relations were focused on negotiations and denuclearization, which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-sitting-pretty-as-russia-china-vie-for-attention-2024-1">ultimately failed after a 2019 summit in Vietnam</a>.There have been three instances where North Korea has engaged in a provocation on the same day as an election: the 1978 midterm and the 1980 and 1996 presidential elections.The CSIS study also notes that there could be "multiple causes," including scientific, military, and domestic reasons, for North Korea's timing of its launches and military actions, but the clustering is still significant and aligns with assessments from the US and its allies.<div type="image" title="A news program shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and three men standing next to cylinders used to produce weapon-grade nuclear material." height="2920" width="5000" msid="114992216" hostid="261" sizebytes="554692"></div>North Korea's missile launches come on the heels of confirmation that it has sent approximately 10,000 troops to Russia to aid Moscow's forces in its war in Ukraine. The US confirmed the presence of the troops late last month after South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence agencies reported the soldiers were training at Russian military bases. Pyongyang's decision to send troops is part of a strengthening partnership between North Korea and Russia.Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kim held several high-profile meetings on North Korean military assistance to Russia, which included an arms deal, and North Korean ammunition, including artillery ammo and missiles, has been documented <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-new-north-korean-missiles-made-this-year-ukraine-2024-9">in use in the war in Ukraine</a>. Experts remain concerned about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/most-worrying-military-tech-north-korea-could-get-from-russia-2024-6">what North Korea could be receiving in return for its support for Russia</a>, which some American officials and analysts have suspected could be advanced military technology for satellites and nuclear submarines, as well as support for Pyongyang's missile and nuclear programs.

North Korea likes to stir up trouble around US elections, and this time around, it's been at it with missiles

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ukraine is facing a grim outlook along sectors of the front, especially in the east.</li><li>Kyiv's struggling with manpower and equipment shortages, among other challenges.</li></ul>Russia's grinding offensive operations have been gaining momentum in eastern Ukraine as challenges for the defenders mount. At the moment, Ukrainian forces in the east have a problem.Over the weekend, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi said his soldiers were facing one of Russia's "most powerful" offensives since the start of war in February 2022 along various sectors of the front line.Ukraine's shocking invasion of Russia's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russia-kursk-incursion-ww2-battle-of-the-bulge-2024-11">Kursk region</a> briefly took the focus off the fighting in the Donbas, but now Ukraine is losing ground both inside Russia and at home.In the Donbas, Ukrainian troops are falling back from defensive positions in towns throughout the Donetsk area. Last month, Russia made its most territorial gains in a single month since the summer of 2022, more than 150 square miles. Its costly attacks appear to be achieving some success.Russia's advances raise concerns that it could capture Pokrovsk, which serves as an important center for Ukrainian military logistics and operations in the Donbas, where the fighting in Ukraine first began a decade ago.<div type="image" title="A dark outline of a Ukrainian soldier standing on top of the ground with trees in the background. Everything is black and set against a grey sky." height="4000" width="6000" msid="114959778" hostid="261" sizebytes="1839280"></div>And inside Russia's Kursk region, Ukrainian troops are also losing territory they've occupied since the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-can-pull-off-shock-complex-invasion-of-russia-2024-8">August 6 invasion</a>, and while the Russians face a tough fight to kick the Ukrainians out, Kyiv's forces inside Russia face challenges as well. On Monday, Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder said the US believed at least 10,000 North Korean troops were in Kursk to help back the territory from Ukraine.<h2 id="40ff497a-97db-40bf-b60b-d23e8d6d3a70">A tough fight in eastern Ukraine</h2>Russia's campaign in Ukraine has been costly. Western intelligence estimated in early September that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-suffered-hundreds-thousands-casualties-in-ukraine-western-intelligence-2024-9">over 600,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded</a> since the start of the war. Russia has also seen tremendous equipment losses, including thousands of armored vehicles."Despite the costs, both to matériel and personnel," Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and war analyst, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/ukraine-war-why-russia-is-in-more-trouble-than-it-looks.html">told</a> the Intelligencer last month, the Russians have "been making fairly steady incremental gains."Russia has built up certain meaningful advantages in manpower, industrial capacity, and matériel, and it has largely held the initiative this year, leveraging that for gains on the battlefield.Jack Watling, a land warfare expert at the Royal United Services Institute, recently painted a bleak picture in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukraine-must-turn-tide-it-can-negotiate">Foreign Affairs</a> article, writing that the Ukrainian forces are stretched thin along the conflict's 600-mile front line and are struggling with shortages of armored combat vehicles, artillery, and ammunition.<div type="image" title="Four Russian soldiers riding a self-propelled mortar on a dusty track." height="1438" width="2555" msid="114959772" hostid="261" sizebytes="422596"></div>"The more it lacks these key types of equipment and weaponry, the more it must depend on infantry to hold the front, causing an associated rise in casualties," he wrote.And Ukraine cannot sustain significant losses, as manpower shortfalls have been a constant challenge.Late last month, the secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council told Kyiv's Parliament it would draft an additional 160,000 people; in the past, Ukrainian officials have considered various changes to conscription and recruitment, but the country has largely avoided taking what some observers see as necessary mobilization steps. Last weekend, the Ukrainian Air Force <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://t.co/ftCbACIupE">said</a> that it will transfer some of its personnel to serve as infantry.Watling noted that the thinning of Ukraine's tactical air defense has given Russian reconnaissance drones <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-downed-s70-drone-ukraine-still-got-it-uk-intel-2024-10">more freedom to provide critical targeting data</a> from locations deeper inside the country, allowing the Russians to then use missiles and loitering munitions to target key assets. Russia's improved intelligence, reconnaissance, and surveillance picture has been important, as have accelerated kill chains.Furthermore, Russian troops continue to execute relentless wave attacks that expose Ukrainian positions. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-hit-ukraine-hundreds-of-glide-bombs-less-than-week-2024-3">Glide bombs</a> are used to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-air-superiority-avdiivka-could-be-devastating-for-ukraine-2024-2">shatter defenses and drive back Ukrainian artillery</a>, letting Russia move its artillery forward.<div type="image" title="A US-provided M142 HIMARS launches a rocket on Russian positions on December 29 in Ukraine." height="1436" width="2160" msid="114959781" hostid="261" sizebytes="203660"></div>And then when Ukraine's defenses are broken, Watling wrote, the Russians push forward and raid the trenches to capture ground. These are bloody operations, but they appear to be yielding results.Russia's successful advances have prompted pessimism and low morale among some in Washington and Kyiv, officials <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/01/us/politics/russia-ukraine-war.html?smid=tw-share">told</a> The New York Times last week, and raise questions about what's next for Ukraine.The Russian army is not unstoppable, though. Kofman argued in his recent interview that "Russia's actually operating under very <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-mass-advantage-should-decline-winter-or-2025-war-expert-2024-10">significant constraints</a>," adding that "its advantage on the battlefield is likely to decline as we get into this winter and look further ahead into 2025." Russia can't keep up the kind of losses it's been absorbing indefinitely, and its offensive will eventually culminate, with the possibility that it might be difficult for it to kick off a new one.US officials told The New York Times that a window of opportunity could open next summer for Ukraine to take advantage of expected Russian manpower and equipment shortages, but that possibility is conditional on whether US and Western support for Ukraine continues.<div type="image" title="Trump" height="2422" width="3804" msid="114959770" hostid="261" sizebytes="397396"></div>Right now, a big question mark for Kyiv is who will win the 2024 election. Former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris have presented voters with completely different approaches for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-could-handle-ukraine-war-if-reelected-scenarios-2024-10">how they'd handle the war in Ukraine</a>. While Trump has made a variety of claims about ending the war quickly, Harris has suggested she'd stay the course on supporting Ukraine's fight.But regardless of who wins, the party that controls Congress will also have a major impact on how much aid the US gives to Ukraine. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-vote-could-make-break-ukraine-in-war-with-russia-2024-4">Republicans in Congress notably blocked US assistance packages</a> to Ukraine late last year and into this year, which had consequences for Ukraine's ability to fight on the battlefield.

Ukraine is facing serious problems in the east, where Russia's forces are grinding forward

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A slew of states and cities voted on housing measures this week.</li><li>Many of the efforts were focused on allocating more funds for affordable housing.</li></ul>On Tuesday, voters in many states and cities had a chance to weigh in directly on housing proposals.They voted for a slew of measures, most of which will create additional funding for affordable housing. On the whole, the pro-housing YIMBY — "Yes in My Backyard" — movement, which advocates for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/yimbys-winning-lower-house-prices-rents-build-more-homes-neighborhoods-2023-9">more housing construction</a> — had a good night on Tuesday in those state and local races, with one exception.At the same time, many parts of President-elect Donald Trump's agenda are set to push up housing costs. Trump and the Republican Party have supported cuts to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-congressional-funding-fights-take-toll-housing-aid-programs-2024-03-17/">federal housing assistance</a>, a reduction in the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-said-migrants-to-blame-for-expensive-homes-wrong-2024-8">immigrant labor force</a> that powers the homebuilding industry, and tariffs that would <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-drilling-oil-housing-rent-home-prices-construction-2024-10">inflate the cost of building materials</a>.Here are five big housing measures that were on the ballot Tuesday night.<h2 id="a2459e56-db69-466f-b0d4-fb87cc8d76a4">$1 billion annually to fight homelessness in Los Angeles</h2>Perhaps the most significant affordable housing measure on any state ballot in the country this week was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://calmatters.org/commentary/2024/10/los-angeles-homelessness-measure-a/">Measure A</a> in Los Angeles County. The measure — which appeared set to pass on Wednesday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-11-05/la-county-voters-measure-g-measure-a-2024-election">based on early returns</a> — will send about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theeastsiderla.com/news/government_and_politics/measure-a-l-a-voters-to-decide-whether-to-impose-a-half-cent-sales-tax/article_1eb593da-9b31-11ef-8959-27cf72160fd4.html">$1 billion annually</a> in perpetuity to initiatives to combat homelessness, build affordable housing, and expand mental health and addiction treatment. It will be paid for by replacing a quarter-cent county sales tax passed by voters in 2017 that also funded anti-homelessness programs with a permanent half-cent sales tax.Pro-housing advocates celebrated Measure A as a major victory for the lowest-income households in LA — and a model for the rest of the country. Yonah Freemark, a researcher at the Urban Institute who's closely followed this and other housing measures, said it offers a path forward for cities serious about boosting housing affordability.Measure A, he argued, is "the kind of thing we're going to need to see from state and local governments if the federal government pulls back on supporting affordable housing investments."LA Mayor Karen Bass, who pushed for Measure A, has made addressing homelessness a top priority in a city with tens of thousands of unhoused residents. Measure A was widely <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://calmatters.org/commentary/2024/10/los-angeles-homelessness-measure-a/">viewed as a test</a> of whether Angelenos wanted to double down on her efforts.Opponents of the measure, including small government conservatives, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.dailynews.com/2024/10/14/the-dishonest-campaign-for-measure-a-must-be-rejected-by-los-angeles-county-voters/">argued</a> it would be a waste of taxpayer money. They cited the dramatic rise in homelessness since the 2017 sales tax was imposed to fund the County's affordable housing and anti-homelessness initiatives. They also argued that a sales tax is regressive and that implementing it without an end date wouldn't give voters a chance to evaluate its impact down the road.<h2 id="8a05dff5-3572-4fb4-a5a9-889c0746f68f">Affordable housing bonds in Rhode Island, North Carolina, and Baltimore</h2>Several cities and states along the East Coast voted on Tuesday to fund affordable housing bonds.In Rhode Island, voters approved the state <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/05/ri-ballot-questions-what-to-know-about-bonds-convention/76067202007/">issuing $120 million in bonds</a> for affordable housing initiatives, including boosting the supply of homes for low- and moderate-income renters and homebuyers. Part of the fund — $10 million — would go to acquiring and revitalizing property, in a new state initiative to directly create public housing.Four North Carolina cities voted to invest in lots of new affordable housing. Charlotte voted to send $100 million to affordable housing efforts, mostly to produce new rental housing and boost supportive housing and shelter capacity. Chapel Hill similarly supported a measure to spend $15 million on affordable housing, while Asheville approved $20 million in additional bonds for its housing trust fund, which will mostly go toward low- or no-interest loans for affordable housing developers.The city of Baltimore similarly passed $20 million in additional affordable housing bonds.<h2 id="ac5b128c-3e28-443e-8b1b-f3244c50d35e">Shoring up housing trust funds in New Orleans and Orlando</h2>In New Orleans, a majority of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nola.com/gambit/news/the_latest/voters-back-workers-bill-of-rights-affordable-housing-fund-in-new-orleans/article_014112f6-9c27-11ef-b465-13dca0ac6ed9.html">voters supported a measure</a> to create a dedicated housing trust fund for affordable housing construction, boosting aid for first-time homebuyers, and rehabilitating affordable rental housing.The measure will require the city, which faces a steep shortage of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.housingnola.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Gap-Report_2023.pdf">more than 47,000 affordable homes,</a> to invest at least 2% of its annual general budget in the trust fund, amounting to about $17 million annually.Orlando, Florida, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.clickorlando.com/results-2024/2024/11/06/all-orange-county-charter-amendments-pass-in-the-nov-5-2024-election-see-the-results/">also shored up</a> its housing trust fund, which supports the construction and preservation of affordable housing.<h2 id="79af5b7e-a2db-4194-808c-907ef8c832da">Denver rejects $100 million a year for affordable housing</h2>The pro-housing movement also took some hits on Tuesday, perhaps most notably in Denver, where voters <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2024/11/06/denver-ballot-measures-election-results">are poised to reject</a> a sales tax to fund affordable housing construction. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://coloradosun.com/2024/10/17/denver-ballot-issue-2r-explained/">Ballot Issue 2R</a> would have raised the city sales tax by five cents on every $10 spent and used the revenue — an expected $100 million a year — to build new affordable housing. The measure was expected to create about 40,000 new homes over the next 10 years, as well as provide rental assistance for low-income tenants and downpayment assistance for certain homebuyers.<h2 id="ad5669e5-a801-48ba-afcb-e0ed438619c3">Mixed response to rent control</h2>At the same time, voters across the country delivered mixed responses to rent control and stabilization measures.In California, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-11-05/california-election-night-proposition-33-and-proposition-34">voters rejected Prop 33</a>, which would have repealed a state law that limits how much cities can control rent — including by prohibiting rent control on single-family homes and on all housing built since 1995. The measure would have allowed cities to limit rent increases as much as they see fit and on all types of housing.Rent control measures in at least <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.kqed.org/news/12012553/californians-appear-to-reject-many-rent-control-measures">two California cities</a> — Larkspur and San Anselmo — also failed.Meanwhile, on the opposite coast, voters in Hoboken, New Jersey, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nj.com/hudson/2024/11/hoboken-voters-reject-rent-control-referendum.html">rejected a measure</a> that would've allowed landlords to raise rents on vacant apartments as much as they want. Currently, the city limits rental increases to 25% between tenants.Proponents of stricter rent control say preventing landlords from price gauging is key to protecting the most vulnerable tenants. But rent stabilization is controversial among pro-housing advocates. Some advocates and economists argue that it discourages new construction and investment in housing, worsening the housing supply shortage.Freemark argued that it's unclear what the mixed results on rent control mean for the pro-housing movement."Rent control is such a fraught subject in the housing world, so I'm not sure how much to read into it," he said.

4 major wins for YIMBYs on election night — and one loss

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The UN Security Council met on Monday to press North Korea on nuclear non-proliferation.</li><li>Pyongyang had days earlier launched a new ICBM, which recorded North Korea's longest launch trajectory.</li></ul>Pyongyang went loud and proud on Monday about its plans for nuclear weapons as the United Nations grilled its representative over a recent missile launch."We will accelerate and will not let up on the build-up of our nuclear force that can counter any threat presented by hostile nuclear weapons states," said Kim Song, the North Korean ambassador to the UN, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbH_GEkkaw4">at a Security Council meeting.</a>"There will ever never be any change in this line," he added, referring to North Korea as a "responsible nuclear weapon state."Kim's statement comes as Japan reported that North Korea fired at least <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-fires-missile-south-korea-military-says-2024-11-04/">seven short-range ballistic missiles</a> from its east coast that ultimately fell into Japan-administrated waters.Launched on the eve of the US election, the missiles were characterized by Pyongyang as a response to recent joint military drills between the US, South Korea, and Japan involving their long-range bombers.Those joint drills were a signal to North Korea after its Thursday launch of what it said was a new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile dubbed the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-new-icbm-missile-test-how-effective-2024-11">Hwasong-19</a>, which also landed in the Sea of Japan.Its trajectory was recorded as Pyongyang's longest-ever ballistic missile test, reaching an altitude of about 4,780 miles, though <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-responsible-for-new-north-korea-icbm-weapon-experts-say-2023-8">previous tests</a> have extended further in latitudinal distance.The US, Japan, and South Korea have condemned the launch.In his comments to the UN, Kim said the Hwasong-19 had "no slightest negative impact on the security of the neighboring countries."The UN Security Council had met on Monday to discuss the Hwasong-19 launch and to press North Korea on nuclear non-proliferation, but Kim instead blasted the meeting as "unlawful.""Today, the nuclear threat of the United States against the DPRK has already reached a critical point in terms of its scale and dangerous level," he said.<h2 id="0a21b4c2-3483-489e-b89e-c50366c67c1b">The US says North Korea 'emboldened' by Russia and China</h2>The US, in turn, accused Russia and China of protecting North Korea."Shielded from closer scrutiny of its sanctions-violating activities by Moscow and Beijing, Pyongyang, unsurprisingly, has been emboldened to continue advancing its unlawful ballistic missile and nuclear WMD programs," said Robert Wood, the deputy US ambassador to the UN.North Korean ties with Russia have more recently come under the spotlight as Moscow <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/zelenskyy-ukraine-north-korean-troops-preemptively-long-range-strike-restrictions-2024-11">receives manpower</a> and arms from Pyongyang to fuel its war in Ukraine. South Korea said earlier this year that in return, North Korea has been acquiring food, raw materials, and tech expertise from Russia.Ukraine, the US, and the UK have estimated that as many as 10,000 North Korean troops may be embedded with Russian forces, and that at least <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korean-troops-ukraine-russia-kursk-8000-front-lines-2024-11">8,000 may soon be deployed to the front lines.</a>NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the manpower injection has given Russia a crucial way to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-cant-sustain-ukraine-attack-without-north-korea-nato-chief-2024-10">sustain its attack on Ukraine</a>, where Moscow has been estimated to be losing about 1,000 soldiers a day.Meanwhile, the Kremlin appears to be struggling to recruit new Russian men for the war, with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-sign-up-bonuses-reaching-on-par-with-us-military-2024-7">soaring sign-up bonuses</a> in some cities indicating that the supply of applicants is running low.

North Korea told the UN point blank that it's speeding up nuclear weapons development

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russian President Vladimir Putin is engaging in a war of attrition in Ukraine.</li><li>Russia has more to gain by prolonging the war, regardless of who wins the US presidential election.</li></ul>Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have starkly different visions of how they'll seek to end one of the gravest security crises in recent decades: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/zelenskyy-ukraine-north-korean-troops-preemptively-long-range-strike-restrictions-2024-11">the</a><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/zelenskyy-ukraine-north-korean-troops-preemptively-long-range-strike-restrictions-2024-11"> Ukraine war.</a>Harris has pledged to continue the policy of President Joe Biden, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-soldiers-look-up-abrams-tanks-face-new-threats-ukraine-2024-8">arming Ukraine to defend itself </a>against Russia's two-year invasion.Trump, meanwhile, claims he can bring about a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-could-handle-ukraine-war-if-reelected-scenarios-2024-10">rapid end to the conflict </a>through negotiations.Whoever is in charge in the White House come January, analysts believe Putin is likely wagering that he has more to gain by prolonging his war of attrition than ending it.<h2 id="3a744150-ba82-4dfb-b30b-8811820f42fe">Pressure mounts on Ukraine</h2>Russia has, in recent months, been ratcheting up pressure on Ukraine, bringing its larger troop numbers and artillery supplies to bear, and making incremental but important gains on the front lines."There are plans to call up more than 160,000 people," the secretary of Ukraine's National Security Council, Oleksandr Lytvynenko, told parliament last week.North Korea is also believed to have <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/video-appears-show-north-korean-soldiers-gearing-up-in-russia-2024-10">sent thousands of troops</a> to aid Russia in its war against Ukraine, per officials from South Korea, Ukraine, and the US."The key advantage gained by Russia [in prolonging the war] is 'events'" Robert Dover, Professor of Intelligence and National Security at the University of Hull in the UK told Business Insider."Ukraine seems to be highly strained by the conflict, and this is - in part - a product of the numbers Russia is able to throw into the conflict," he said.<div type="image" title="Trump n Putin" height="820" width="1024" msid="114953184" hostid="261" sizebytes="31598"></div><h2 id="712a570c-ce6b-49c6-b90b-0c08b2faeb64">Trump's peace plans could embolden Russia</h2>The terms on which Trump would seek to broker peace in Ukraine are unclear, though he's criticized the aid Biden sent to Ukraine, suggesting it could be used as leverage.He has also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://newrepublic.com/post/185652/trump-sanctions-promise-adviser-charged-russia-media">questioned the effectiveness </a>of the administration's sanctions against Russia.His running mate, JD Vance<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-could-handle-ukraine-war-if-reelected-scenarios-2024-10">, recently outlined a </a><a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/12/vance-trump-ukraine-russia-war-plan/">plan for ending the war in Ukraine</a> under a possible Trump administration, with the establishment of a "demilitarized zone" in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories.Both candidates have also questioned US commitments to NATO, the security pact that has been the main bulwark against Russian aggression in Europe.However, in reducing aid to Ukraine and, in effect, handing over swaths of territory to Russia, the US would likely embolden Kremlin aggression, say critics."If Russia knows its territorial revisionism in Ukraine can be permissible by Washington, it is hard to see how Moscow will not see the same elsewhere (or even further in Ukraine, like it did after 2014)," Paul Cormarie, a policy analyst at the RAND Coproration, told BI."Peace in Ukraine in favor of Russia isn't peace, it's a truce."Undermining Western unity by criticizing NATO could have much the same effect.<div type="image" title="Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Joe Biden shake hands during a joint press conference at the Masseria San Domenico on the sidelines of the G7 Summit hosted by Italy." height="683" width="1024" msid="114953181" hostid="261" sizebytes="29734"></div><h2 id="43d5159f-1892-46df-b087-cadcd5c43edf">Harris pledges to continue backing Ukraine – but it likely won't be enough</h2>Harris, by contrast, has pledged to continue US support for Ukraine, which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/#:~:text=To%20date%2C%20we%20have%20provided,invasion%20of%20Ukraine%20in%202014.">has cost $64.1 billion</a> in military assistance since the 2022 Russian invasion.US aid has played a key role in helping Ukraine fend off the Russian invasion and inflict vast losses on Russia's forces.But the Biden administration has long placed limits on how Ukraine can use the weapons. Ukraine also says US aid often arrives in a piecemeal way.It's part of a US effort to balance support for Ukraine with not provoking Russia and causing a bigger war.But it means that Putin likely believes he can continue to wage his war of attrition against Ukraine with Harris as president as she likely won't provide enough military aid to defeat his forces.It's a war Putin has staked Russia's economic future on, underlining the importance of victory for the Russian leader.One key tool Biden has used to punish Russia is sanctions designed to damage its economy by limiting its capacity to sell oil and gas internationally.However, Russia has managed to open new export markets in major economies including China and India, making the economic damage of the sanctions has been more limited than some experts projected.Economist <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-crisis-ukraine-war-moscow-inflation-sanctions-putin-spending-2024-10">Alexander Mertens recently wrote</a> that Russia would likely suffer economic damage regardless of whether it continues the war or not, meaning there's not a major incentive for Putin to stop now.<div type="image" title="Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping enter the hall for Russian-Chinese talks on May 16, 2024 in Beijing, China." height="760" width="1024" msid="114953186" hostid="261" sizebytes="24578"></div><h2 id="41991dd2-f4c0-4eea-aac2-1fdc873df772">Putin plays the long game</h2>Putin's thinking about the global picture, too said Dover.China is observing the Ukraine conflict closely as it weighs whether to launch an invasion of US-ally Taiwan, say analysts, while the Middle East is engulfed in a conflict that could spiral into a much bigger war.Dover said a major conflict in either region could draw in US resources and energy and distract from Ukraine."A regional conflict in the Middle East will help Russia maintain a conflict in Ukraine, with lower risks," he said, cautioning though that the situation was a "fluid assessment conditioned by events."Overall, Putin's mission is to not just seize Ukraine but also work in tandem with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-china-brink-military-alliance-may-overwhelm-us-putin-xi-2023-12">other authoritarian leaders</a> to damage US global power."In the near-term, Russia and China have embraced a strategy of joint confrontation with the United States and its Allies in Europe and Asia respectively," analyst Jonathan Ward of the Hudson Institute told BI last year.Neither Harris nor Trump are likely to get Putin to change course in his pursuit of victory in Ukraine, and his bigger global ambition."He has taken personal responsibility for achieving that outcome and likely judges it as worth nearly any cost. Trying to coerce him into giving up is a fruitless exercise that just wastes lives and resources," wrote Peter Schroeder, former Principal Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council, for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://archive.is/Y92WB#selection-1479.348-1479.412">Foreign Relations in September.</a>The best course, writes Schroeder, is for the US to play Putin at his own game and outlast him in his war of attrition, waiting for him to die or leave office."Only then will there be a chance for a lasting peace in Ukraine," he said.

Putin is in no hurry to end the Ukraine war, no matter who wins the US election

New Delhi, Candidates in Punjab's Jalandhar can spend Rs 15 for a cup of tea and the same price for a samosa they offer to people during public meetings and campaign trails in the <keyword id="19895394" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="lok-sabha" source="keywords">Lok Sabha</keyword> elections. However, those in Madhya Pradesh's Mandla can spend Rs 7 for a cup of tea and another Rs 7.50 for a piece of samosa, considered a staple snack in many parts of the country. With polls to elect the 18th Lok Sabha approaching, district poll panels are fixing the rates for expenses as part of the election expenditure monitoring process. The candidates will have to manage their expenditure within the prescribed limit. These rate cards often become a subject of "meme-fest" on social media about the prices not being in sync with the current inflation level. In most states, including Andhra Pradesh, the expenditure ceiling for a Lok Sabha candidate is set at Rs 95 lakh. However, in Arunachal Pradesh, Goa and Sikkim, the limit is slightly lower at Rs 75 lakh per candidate. Similarly, for Union territories, the expenditure ceiling ranges from Rs 75 lakh to Rs 95 lakh per candidate, depending on the region. In Jalandhar, chole bhature has been capped at Rs 40 while mutton and chicken have been priced at Rs 250 and 500 per kg respectively. Desserts like dhodha (Rs 450 per kg) and ghee pinni (Rs 300 per kg) are also on the menu besides <keyword id="20350738" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="lassi" source="keywords">lassi</keyword> and nimbu pani priced at Rs 20 and 15 per glass respectively. The cost of tea is low at Rs 5 in the rate card of Balaghat in Madhya Pradesh but the samosa is priced higher at Rs 10. The Balaghat rate card also has idli, <keyword id="21122493" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sambhar-vada" source="keywords">sambhar vada</keyword> and poha-jalebi priced at Rs 20 while the cost for dosa and upma has been fixed at Rs 30. In Thoubal district of violence-hit Manipur, tea, samosa, kachori, khajur (dates) and gaja (dessert) have been priced at Rs 10 each. Candidates in the northeastern state's Tengnoupal district, will have to stick to Rs 5 for black tea and Rs 10 for milk tea. The list has a wider spread of non-vegetarian items with duck and pork priced at Rs 300 and Rs 400 per kg respectively. Chicken (broiler) and fish like rohu, mrigal and sareng, are also on the list. In Chennai, the price of tea has been raised from Rs 10 to Rs 15 and coffee from Rs 15 to Rs 20, while the rate of chicken biryani has been reduced from Rs 180 to Rs 150 per packet compared to 2019. In the expenditure card for <keyword id="20035063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gautam-buddha-nagar" source="keywords">Gautam Buddha Nagar</keyword> (Noida/Greater Noida), vegetarian thali comes for Rs 100, a samosa or a cup of tea for Rs 10, kachori for Rs 15, a sandwich for Rs 25, and a kilogram of jalebi for Rs 90 per kg. <keyword id="20009826" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="north-goa" source="keywords">North Goa</keyword> candidates can have batata vada on menu at a cost of Rs 15, same as that for a samosa. The tea has been capped at Rs 15 while coffee can cost Rs 20. The rate card for Haryana's Jind offers the candidates to hire a tandoor for Rs 300 and features delicacies like dal makhni and mix veg for Rs 130 while matar paneer has been priced at 160. Breads like butter nan, <keyword id="19994516" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="missi-roti" source="keywords">missi roti</keyword> and plain roti are also on the platter besides desserts including <keyword id="21122494" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kaju-katli" source="keywords">kaju katli</keyword> and gulab jamun. While parties and candidates often offer workers and voters liquor, none of the rate cards mention alcohol. Other heads which find mention in the rate cards range from expensive infrastructure, such as helipads, luxury vehicles, and farmhouses, to miscellaneous items like flowers, cooler, tower ACs and sofa. The rate cards have also prescribed the ceiling on rates for hiring of different vehicles for campaigning right from a Tata Safari or Scorpio to a Honda City or Ciaz or a bus to ferry to public to rally grounds. Rates have also been set for rose garlands, marigold garlands and bouquet by some poll panels while some have included heads like party merchandise including caps and flags. The rate cards also have an list of permissible rates for hiring venues and accommodation. The expenditure includes the spend for public meetings, rallies, advertisements, hoardings, pamphlets, flexis, campaign material and all other election-related work. At present, there is a ceiling on campaigning funds for individual candidates in the electoral fray but no cap on the money political parties can spend for electioneering. According to the revised guidelines issued by the ECI, the maximum permissible expenditure for campaigning in a Lok Sabha constituency varies across different states and Union territories. Section 77 (1) of the Representation of the People Act, 1951 says candidates are expected to keep an account of expenditure incurred on the elections from the "date on which he has been nominated" till the "date of declaration of the result". Polling for the 543 Lok Sabha seats will be held in seven phases, starting with 102 in the first phase on April 19. The votes will be counted on June 4.

Elections on a plate: Poll panels fix menu & expense ceiling for Samosa, tea, biryani & more

After a 10.2% increase last year, <keyword id="19910265" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="keywords">gold prices</keyword> are expected to rise another 9.9%, <keyword id="22706139" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Infomerics-Ratings" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Infomerics Ratings" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Infomerics Ratings">Infomerics Ratings</keyword> said in a report, attributing largely to the <keyword id="20132853" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Middle-East-crisis" source="keywords">Middle East crisis</keyword> involving Iran and Israel. The dragged <keyword id="20130144" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="geopolitical-crisis" source="keywords">geopolitical crisis</keyword> in the Middle East has spurred a rush into safe-haven assets such as gold. Historically, gold, as an asset, is considered a haven as it typically manages to retain or appreciate its underlying value in times of turbulence. "But this rise would now partly be offset by the reduced duty cut (in India)," said the Infomerics Ratings report. Historical trends, such as the surge during the Russia-Ukraine war, highlight gold's role as a safeguard against inflation and market instability during <keyword id="19982403" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-uncertainties" source="keywords">global uncertainties</keyword>. Prices of gold, considered safe investment bets, have seen a mild correction after the latest stellar bull run. Gold has been in demand for a considerable period, with its prices rallying to hit record highs now and then. Geopolitical conflict in West Asia that stretched for a long time, buying by several central banks, including the RBI, and physical demand, have altogether pushed gold prices northwards. Gold is a scarce commodity, and any mismatch in demand-supply conditions may invariably trigger a sharp price rise. "Gold's diverse uses, in jewellery, technology and by central banks and investors, mean different sectors of the gold market rise to prominence at different points in the global economic cycle. This diversity of demand and self-balancing nature of the gold market underpin gold's robust qualities as an investment asset," said Infomerics Ratings. Festive season buying, a weak dollar, uncertainty surrounding the US elections, and possible Fed rate cuts in September could raise prices, the report noted. In the wake of the presentation of the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> on July 23, 2024, by the Finance Minister, gold prices in India declined sharply. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman slashed the import duty on gold from 15% to 6% in the Budget presented on July 23. Days after the Budget, gold became cheaper by Rs 6,200 in most states of India. In the capital Delhi, the price of 10 grams of 24 carat gold came down to about Rs 69,140. "With surging demand for gold, especially as the <keyword id="19896655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="wedding-season" source="keywords">wedding season</keyword> approaches, gold prices are likely to rise this financial year, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, robust central bank buying, and expectations of <keyword id="21050688" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-Fed-rate-cuts" source="keywords">US Fed rate cuts</keyword>." Infomerics Ratings report said. In India, gold has strong cultural and religious significance. As per <keyword id="20195223" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Gold-Council" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="World Gold Council" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="World Gold Council">World Gold Council</keyword>, India is one of the largest consumers of gold jewellery, accounting for about 25% of global gold demand. The demand for gold in India is primarily driven by weddings and festivals, making it an integral part of the country's culture and traditions. Touching upon regulatory structure and challenges in the gold sector, the report noted that the regulatory landscape for the gold industry in India is fragmented. "The regulatory landscape for the gold industry in India is fragmented, involving multiple circulars and notifications from various authorities such as the RBI, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, DGFT, Customs, and others. This patchwork of regulations leads to confusion, inefficiency, and difficulty in compliance, as stakeholders must navigate through numerous documents to understand the rules," the report read.

Gold shines as demand for safe haven asset strong; Infomerics Ratings anticipates 10% price jump this year

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A trio of emergencies has all struck just five weeks ahead of the 2024 presidential election.</li><li>Violence in the Middle East, a dockworkers strike, and Hurricane Helene could all impact the polls, experts told BI.</li></ul><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warships-aircraft-ready-fight-more-violence-grips-middle-east-2024-9">Violence in the Middle East</a>, a massive<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dockworkers-port-strike-ila-impacts-2024-10"> labor strike</a> among East Coast and Gulf Coast dockworkers, and the devastation of<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/before-after-satellite-photos-hurricane-helene-destruction-florida-2024-10"> Hurricane Helene</a> all struck with only five weeks before the 2024 presidential election.Hurricane Helene and other storms dumped more than 40 trillion <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/helene-and-other-storms-dumped-40-trillion-gallons-of-rain-on-the-south">gallons</a> of rain throughout much of the Southeast US — including two key swing states — late last month. The death toll crossed 180 this week, and hundreds of people are still missing as rescue efforts continue.Just days later, more than 45,000 dockworkers at ports along the East and Gulf Coast went on strike, kicking off a major work stoppage that is already impacting the US economy and disrupting the supply chain.These two US-based disasters unfolded as the conflict in the Middle East intensified this week. Iran launched at least 180 missiles into Israel on Tuesday, calling the attack a retaliation for a series of critical blows Israel has launched against Hezbollah in Lebanon in recent weeks and the killing of a Hamas leader in Tehran in July. The Iranian strikes came hours after Israel said it had launched a limited ground incursion into southern Lebanon, pushing the region ever closer to all-out war.Political science experts warn that the convergence of these three crises could have an impact on voters' decisions.When events like natural disasters and geopolitical crises happen, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/voters-world-elections-against-ruling-parties-analysis-2024-7">voters usually either blame</a> or reward the party in charge, depending on how that chaos shakes out, Peter Loge, a former Obama adviser and the director of the School of Media and Public Affairs at George Washington University, told Business Insider.The incumbent party — the Democrats, in this case — is typically blamed for negative external events ahead of an election, which would put Vice President Kamala Harris at greater risk than former President Donald Trump, both Loge, and David Jones, an exit pollster and political science professor at Baruch College at the City University of New York, said.This election, however, is anything but typical. Trump was shot in the ear during a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-butler-pennsylvania-rally-secret-service-2024-7">mid-July assassination attempt</a>. Soon after, President Joe Biden announced he was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-presidential-race-2024-7">dropping out of the race</a> following a disastrous June debate. Then, last month, federal <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-ryan-wesley-routh-second-trump-assassination-attempt-suspect-2024-9">prosecutors charged a different man</a> with a separate assassination attempt against Trump.What's more, Americans aren't choosing between a traditional incumbent president and challenger; their options include a former president and<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-favorability-polls-reverse-trump-election-2024-9"> a current vice president</a>, complicating how these current crises could affect the two campaigns, Randall Adkins, a professor of political science at the University of Nebraska Omaha, told BI."I think it's going to be very difficult for the voters to understand a clear message and pick up the contrasting viewpoints from the two candidates on these issues," Adkins said.But that doesn't mean the American electorate isn't paying attention. In the final sprint to election day, voters tend to view global forces through a political lens, Loge said, and uncontrollable situations quickly become political talking points."Roughly four weeks out of a presidential election, it's really difficult to separate global events from politics, which is unfortunate because these are global events that affect real people's lives," Loge said.The<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-tim-walz-vice-presidential-debate-voters-election-2024-10"> vice presidential debate</a> between Sen. JD Vance and Gov. Tim Walz on Tuesday night offered both candidates a platform to<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-tim-walz-vp-debate-agreement-civility-2024-10"> address th</a>e crises.Ahead of the debate, Loge said that he anticipated Vance would work hard to link Harris to current events while Walz would focus on her calm competence. His prediction<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vance-walz-vp-vice-presidential-debate-highlights-2024-10"> came true within minutes</a>.The first question of the night centered on violence between Iran and Israel. In his response, Vance said Iran had received unfrozen assets from the "Kamala Harris administration," trying to paint her as more responsible for America's actions than Biden. Under Trump's leadership, he said there was "peace through strength."Trump's running mate also went after Harris' record on<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-donald-trump-january-6-vp-debate-tim-walz-2024-10"> immigration and inflation</a>, repeatedly saying that she's failed to enact economic change while in office.Walz, for his part, worked to<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-debate-performance-image-rehabilitation-tim-walz-attack-dog-2024-10"> paint Trump as the candidate of chaos</a> and Harris as the stable choice."What we've seen out of Vice President Harris is we've seen steady leadership," he said when talking about the Middle East. "We've seen a calmness that is able to be able to draw on the coalitions, to bring them together, understanding that our allies matter."<div type="image" title="A photo of an East coast port" height="2333" width="3500" msid="113904510" hostid="261" sizebytes="332558"></div><h2 id="d2fec78e-c767-45a8-8e68-7d3009d94bff">The 'sleeper issue'</h2>The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran raises foreign policy concerns, and the devastation of Hurricane Helene has left large swaths of the American Southeast destroyed. But it's a<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/port-strike-could-wreck-us-economy-with-price-increases-scarcity-2024-10"> brewing economic crisis from a dockworkers strike</a> that stands to really disrupt the presidential race, Jones, the pollster, said."The sleeper issue that could end up making the most difference is the<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dockworkers-port-strike-ila-impacts-2024-10"> dockworkers strike</a>, and that's because the No. 1 issue that Americans say when they talk to pollsters is the economy," he told BI.The strike will inevitably lead to<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dockworker-strike-what-will-be-impacted-prices-inflation-martime-longshoremen-2024-9"> complications with the nation's supply chain</a>, which, in turn, could eventually lead to inflation — an outcome that would seriously hurt Harris, he said.Logistics experts told BI that a strike lasting a week or two would create backlogs but minimal<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/port-strike-could-wreck-us-economy-with-price-increases-scarcity-2024-10"> widespread economic costs</a>. Anything longer, however, would result in upward price pressures and shortages, especially at the grocery store.And the affected ports are already feeling the impact: more container vessels are anchored than usual, and analysts at JPMorgan estimate the shutdowns could cost $5 billion a day."There's a lot of <a target="_blank" href="https://www1.cmc.edu/pages/faculty/CShelton/VoterAttribution.pdf">evidence</a> that when people are unhappy with the economy, they blame the incumbent presidential party," Jones told BI.Republicans typically have the upper hand on economic matters among voters, but there is increasing evidence that<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-economy-inflation-polling-donald-trump-joe-biden-2024-8"> Harris' policies on the matter are starting to sway </a>Americans.And while the<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dockworkers-strike-biden-test-unions-harris-trump-election-2024-10"> dockworker strike could spell trouble for Harris</a>, it's also the only crisis of the three that has any real chance of ending before election day, Adkins said.The war in the Middle East will likely worsen before it gets better, and the hurricane cleanup <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/hurricane-helene-recovery-is-going-to-take-years-if-not-a-decade-fmr-fema-administrator-220702789836">could take years</a>. But the longshoremen and ports could reach a deal before voters head to the polls, Adkins said.Jones said that the strike ending could give Harris an opportunity to celebrate; he said he could imagine a photo of her shaking hands with smiling dockworkers.<div type="image" title="A voting sign." height="3648" width="5472" msid="113904509" hostid="261" sizebytes="1182118"></div><h2 id="91823464-11de-43f8-924a-dea6a8029385">Most voters have already decided</h2>Regardless of how the current crises evolve in the coming weeks, the presidential election is ultimately set to be<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/battleground-states-2024-presidential-election-road-white-house-2022-12"> decided by a small number of voters</a> in a small number of states.The country's intense<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/animation-rise-partisanship-congress-house-representatives-60-years-2016-4"> partisanship</a> also means external events just don't sway voters as much as they used to, Jones said."I think at the presidential level right now, probably 19 out of 20 people have already made up their mind," Adkins said.In 2020, Biden won the election thanks to fewer <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/did-biden-win-little-or-lot-answer-yes-n1251845">than 45,000 votes</a> in three key states, Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin.Given how close past presidential races have been, if even a few thousand voters in key districts find themselves energized by war in the Middle East, angered by the impact of the dockworkers strike, or hurt by Helene, the crises could move the needle come November.What matters most now is how the candidates' messaging lands with specific communities impacted by these crises, Loge said. While those in the swing states of North Carolina and Georgia may be most focused on hurricane cleanup, he said voters in must-win Michigan might be more concerned with the ongoing violence overseas.The Biden-Harris administration would be wise to project calm competence in the weeks ahead, according to Loge. Meanwhile, he said he expects the Trump campaign to continue its messaging promoting Trump as the candidate of strength and Harris as the candidate of weakness.Which message voters respond to most will become clear on Election Day.

You Searched For "Elections in North East Delhi" and got 8 results

North Korea likes to stir up trouble around US elections, and this time around, it's been at it with missiles

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Ukraine is facing serious problems in the east, where Russia's forces are grinding forward

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North Korea told the UN point blank that it's speeding up nuclear weapons development

Matthew Loh

Putin is in no hurry to end the Ukraine war, no matter who wins the US election

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Elections on a plate: Poll panels fix menu & expense ceiling for Samosa, tea, biryani & more

PTI

Gold shines as demand for safe haven asset strong; Infomerics Ratings anticipates 10% price jump this year

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A trio of crises threatens to upend the race 5 weeks before Election Day

Alice Tecotzky,Erin Snodgrass

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