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It is a momentous day for the country as we finally enter the vote-counting phase of the <keyword id="20181062" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="2024-Lok-Sabha-election" source="keywords">2024 Lok Sabha election</keyword> process on June 4. The 80-day, seven-phase-long process has been marred with a wide range of issues ranging from weather turmoil to vote tampering and reelections. As the final leg of counting concludes in a few hours, here’s what the vote tallying process looks like, and what is likely to happen after after the final results are announced. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Vote counting" comment="subhead" text="Vote counting"><keyword id="389062" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="vote-counting" source="Orion">Vote counting</keyword></cmsannotation> While the election process takes place in several stages, the vote tallying process is carried out simultaneously in all of the country’s 543 constituencies, with typically one counting centre in each. The tallying is done by a ‘Returning Officer’ and their assistants — officials appointed by the <keyword id="19895876" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Election-Commission-of-India" source="keywords">Election Commission of India</keyword> — in several rounds, or ‘leads’. This year, the counting process began at 8 AM IST on June 4, and is expected to carry on till beyond the afternoon. It will start with the tallying of postal ballots — ballot papers distributed to some categories of people — followed by the <keyword id="21930663" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="EVM-count" source="keywords">EVM count</keyword>. Periodically, the results of the ongoing count are announced to the media and then televised, helping the nation learn of the current political trend. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="The counting process for the Lok Sabha Election" comment="subhead" text="The counting process for the Lok Sabha Election">The counting process for the Lok Sabha Election</cmsannotation> Under Rule 54 A of the Conduct of Elections Rules 1961, the process for counting votes starts with postal ballots at the Returning Officer's (RO) table. Thirty minutes into postal ballot counting, Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) votes can be counted, or immediately if no postal ballots are present. Counting officials must ensure that the EVM's Control Unit (CU) seal is intact and that the total votes match Form 17C before counting. Results from the CU are recorded in Part-II of Form 17C, and verified by the counting supervisor, micro observer, and candidate agents. If the CU's display fails, <keyword id="20991106" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="VVPAT-slips" source="keywords">VVPAT slips</keyword> are counted post-CU counting. Results for each CU are documented and signed in Form 17C, which is then sent for compiling the final result in Form 20. VVPAT slip counting starts after CU votes are counted, with mandatory verification of VVPAT slips from five random polling stations per constituency. If the victory margin is less than the rejected postal ballots, those ballots are re-verified before declaring the result. In case of a tie, the winner is determined by a draw of lots. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Results are announced" comment="subhead" text="Results are announced">Results are announced</cmsannotation> The outcome for each constituency is announced as soon as counting concludes. As per <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword>’s counting system, the candidate with the highest number of votes will win for a particular constituency, regardless of whether they are able to manage a majority. These results are generally televised throughout the day. After the <keyword id="19895782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="election-commission" source="keywords">Election Commission</keyword> of India (ECI) has tallied all 64 crore votes that were cast this year, the constitutional body will announce the results for all 543 seats. Subsequently, if the winning party of the alliance has secured at least 272 seats, the institution’s president will call upon the leader of the winning party to form a government for the next five-year term. If no group is able to achieve a clear majority, political parties may form coalitions to reach the 272 magic number. If all negotiations fail and a “minority government” cannot be formed by the largest party, the President of India may dissolve the Lok Sabha (lower house of Parliament) and announce fresh elections. The next Lok Sabha must be announced before the current term ends on June 16. Most exit polls have indicated another landslide victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance, with a third term for Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword>. However, early trends suggest that the Congress-led INDIA bloc is performing far better than expected. Results are expected to be clearer by the afternoon.

What will happen after the election commission finishes counting all Lok Sabha votes?

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="19918985" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Donald-Trump" source="keywords">Donald Trump</keyword> won the election with the help of personalities like <keyword id="20341465" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Joe-Rogan" source="keywords">Joe Rogan</keyword>.</li><li>Rogan is a podcaster, right? Well, yes, but he's also a YouTuber.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-joe-rogan-tony-hinchcliffe-rally-election-campaign-2024-10">Podcasts played a huge role in getting Donald Trump re-elected</a> this week. Right? Or maybe it was Twitter. Or TikTok. Could be all of them. And it could also be that people interested in those mediums and platforms have reasons to want to believe they were important. But if you're going to look at the way the internet played a role in the election and you're not talking about YouTube, you're doing it wrong. So, once again: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/youtube-valuation-mrbeast-how-much-worth-2024-3">YouTube is massive</a> — so massive <a target="_blank" href="https://abc.xyz/assets/71/a5/78197a7540c987f13d247728a371/2024q3-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf">it generated $50 billion in revenue over the last year</a>, with the majority of that coming from advertising. Advertisers are spending that money because that's where the eyeballs are. And certainly, some of those eyeballs consumed a lot of political/election content over the last year. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pewresearch.org/journalism/fact-sheet/social-media-and-news-fact-sheet/">Pew Research</a> says 32% of American adults regularly get their news from YouTube — more than any other social media platform except for Facebook, at 33%. And I'm very confident — based on my non-scientific poll of my teenage sons, who inhale YouTube — that those numbers are way, way bigger for young people. What do people who watch political stuff watch on YouTube? In some cases, it's just another version of TV: Fox News reportedly drew as many as 1.1 million concurrent viewers for its election-day livestream on YouTube. That was about 10% of its conventional TV audience, but still notable for a platform that skews very young. Overall, YouTube viewers consumed 67 million hours of live streams on Election Day, per <a target="_blank" href="https://fortune.com/2024/11/06/youtube-election-news-trump-harris-twitch-rumble-stream-fox-nbc/">Streams Charts</a>. But what was most interesting about the election was the way the Trump campaign spent the summer embracing YouTube personalities. Starting with people you've heard of, like Joe Rogan, down to ones you may have never heard of before this year, like the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/FULLSENDPODCAST">Nelk Boys</a>. Wait a minute! I can hear you saying. Isn't Joe Rogan a podcaster? Absolutely. But Rogan, like many other creators/influencers/personalities, creates content that lives on multiple platforms at the same time. You can listen to his <keyword id="20677488" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="podcasts" source="keywords">podcasts</keyword> on Spotify, but you can listen to them — and watch them — on YouTube. And that happens way more often than you might think. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.edisonresearch.com/youtube-is-the-preferred-podcast-listening-service/">Edison Research</a> says YouTube — including both regular, free YouTube and YouTube's paid YouTube Music service — is the most popular way for people to listen to (or watch) podcasts. You can see it in some of the numbers. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBMoPUAeLnY">Rogan's October interview with Trump</a> has drawn a staggering 47 million views (note: Don't try comparing this to a TV rating, since YouTube reportedly counts a "view" as 30 seconds of watching — and someone who watches for a bit, stops and comes back to the same video later in the day, will count as a second view). <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRyyTAs1XY8">The one he did with JD Vance</a> this month is now above 15 million. But even <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/@joerogan">a standard-issue Rogan interview</a> can generate 2 million views or more. And there is a universe of conservative podcasts, or podcasts that aren't political but are open to conservative guests that do big numbers on YouTube, from former Fox hosts Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly to former reality TV star Theo Von. Trump visited all of them. You can also find bits of their shows on places like Instagram and TikTok. But they focus their efforts on YouTube, for the reasons many creators do. For starters, you can find a big audience there. And YouTube's algorithmic discovery mechanism means creators can get themselves in front of audiences that weren't looking for them. Podcast audiences, by contrast, grow slowly — but tend to stick around once they connect with someone they like, says Chris Balfe, CEO of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.redseatventures.com/clients">Red Seat Ventures</a>, a company that helps the likes of Carlson, Kelly and The Free Press' Bari Weiss sell ads for their shows. And, unlike platforms like Instagram and TikTok — podcasters can get a meaningful share of the <keyword id="20015770" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="advertising-revenue" source="keywords">advertising revenue</keyword> generated by their YouTube audiences. (There are also liberal/left podcasters/YouTubers, like Crooked Media, the company behind Pod Save America. But there aren't nearly as many of them, and they don't have the same kind of reach, as journalist <a target="_blank" href="https://www.usermag.co/p/why-democrats-wont-build-their-own">Taylor Lorenz notes</a>.) So should we be calling these folks podcasters? Or YouTubers? Yes, says Balfe. "I think they're the same thing. We should think about it as a podcast plus a <keyword id="23944857" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="YouTube-election" source="keywords">YouTube election</keyword>," he says. "Or a <keyword id="20437786" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="creator-economy" source="keywords">creator economy</keyword> election. The best-performing talents do well everywhere." Correction: November 11, 2024 — Streams Charts is the name of the company that tallied Election Day YouTube live-stream viewing, not Stream Charts.

Let's call it the YouTube election

New Delhi [India], June 4 (ANI): The mammoth exercise to count votes polled for the Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 elections will begin at 8 am on Tuesday, with trends and results following shortly thereafter. Results of the <keyword id="6372146" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Assembly-elections" source="Orion">Assembly elections</keyword> in Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh were held simultaneously with voting for the 543-member Lok Sabha. Results of 175 Assembly constituencies in Andhra Pradesh and 147 Assembly constituencies in Odisha and results of bypolls in 25 Assembly constituencies will also be declared today. Here're the LIVE results: <div type="javascript" title="Custom" contenttype="Infographic"><cdata><![CDATA[]]></cdata></div> Strict security has been put in place for the smooth conduct of counting of votes for over 8,000 candidates in this general elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek a third consecutive term in government, while the Congress-led opposition aims to unseat them. Most <keyword id="43771" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exit-polls" source="Orion">exit polls</keyword> have predicted a return of PM Modi to power, a development which will make him the first Prime Minister since Jawaharlal Nehru to secure a third successive term in power, Meanwhile, a delegation of Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc leaders met with the Election Commission of India urging it to ensure that postal ballots are counted and their results declared before the outcome of the EVMs is announced. Earlier, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar had said that a "very robust system" has been put in place. "There are around 10.5 lakh booths. Each booth will have 14 tables. There are observers and micro-observers. Nearly, 70-80 lakh people are involved in the process," he said. The national capital is all set to witness the battle. With tight security arrangements in place, Delhi is well-prepared to watch the results of the 2024 <keyword id="19923279" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-Elections" source="keywords">Lok Sabha elections</keyword>. Around 70 companies of the security forces will be deployed at all seven counting centres across the national capital as part of the elaborate security arrangements made by the Delhi Police for today. Delhi traffic police issued a fresh advisory ahead of the counting of votes scheduled for Tuesday, listing key roads where traffic restrictions and diversions will start from 5 am onwards to ensure smooth vehicular movement. Prime Minister Modi's hometown, Gujarat, is also preparing for the vote-counting day as security forces rehearse and perform drills for the effortless conduct of D-day. Exit polls have predicted the return of the BJP to power. Various exit polls have given the BJP more than 64 seats in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is poised for a hat-trick win in Lok Sabha polls with a massive majority. Exit polls were predicted on Saturday and indicated that the ruling party at the Centre would improve its performance in several states ruled by other parties. A few exit polls predicted that the BJP-led NDA could reach the goal of "400 paar" stated by BJP leaders in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls. The exit polls predicted that the ruling BJP-led NDA is poised to improve its performance over its 2019 record when it won 352 seats. Two polls predicted the BJP would also improve its numbers from the 303 seats it won in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In the 2019 elections, NDA wrested 353 seats, of which the BJP won 303 alone. The Opposition's UPA got only 93 seats of which the Congress got 52. The Lok Sabha elections were conducted in seven phases- on April 19, April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, May 25 and June 1. The counting trends and results, as per data entered by RO/ARO for AC/PC will be available on the ECI website as well as on the Voter Helpline App, both iOS and Android Mobile Apps, according to the ECI. The Voter Helpline App can be downloaded from the Google Play Store or Apple Play Store. Users can use the available filter to find out the winning/leading or trailing candidate details, along with the constituency-wise or State-wise results from the Voter Helpline App. The local display of the trends and results by the CEOs/ROs/DEOs may also be done through the Digital Display Panels, it said.

Lok Sabha elections 2024 results: Mammoth vote-counting exercise set to begin at 8 am, amid high security

Citing the Conduct of <keyword id="19895095" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="election" source="keywords">Election</keyword> Rules, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar on Monday said the <keyword id="21922459" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="count" source="keywords">count</keyword> of <keyword id="20105752" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="postal-ballots" source="keywords">postal ballots</keyword> will start first across all counting centres and asserted that there was "no doubt about it". Responding to questions at a press conference here, he said after half-an-hour of the start of the postal ballot count, the counting of votes recorded in the electronic voting machines will commence. A delegation of the opposition parties had on Sunday met the Commission to demand that postal ballot count should start first and the results of postal ballots should be announced first. "Rules clearly state (Rule 54A) that postal ballot count will start first. On all centres in the country it will start first, no doubt about it. After half-an-hour we start the <keyword id="20041623" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="EVM" source="keywords">EVM</keyword> count. So, there are three countings which are happening simultaneously - it happened in the 2019 elections, it happened in all the assembly polls held thereafter. It happened yesterday also in case of Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim assembly (vote count). We can't change anything mid course. Why can't we change, because it is compliant with the rules," he said. He said the postal ballot count and then the EVM count and finally the marching of VVPT slips with EVM results will continue. In majority of the booths, the number of postal ballot is less. It will automatically end first, he pointed out. Since 2019, VVPAT (paper-trail machine) slips from five randomly selected polling stations per assembly constituency (or segment in cases of <keyword id="19895394" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="lok-sabha" source="keywords">Lok Sabha</keyword> seats) are matched with the EVM count for greater transparency.

Count of postal ballots will commence first: CEC

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Markets are moving on early US election results that favor Donald Trump.</li><li>US Treasury yields and the dollar are rising, with futures and cryptocurrencies also gaining.</li></ul>Markets are turning to the Trump trade on election night as betting odds move in favor of Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump.While the election is far too early to call, online betting sites, including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election">PredictIt</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024">Polymarket,</a> show Trump ahead in the race for the top job.This turn in sentiment supported the so-called <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/donald-trump-trade-rally-betting-markets-kamala-harris-bitcoin-djt-2024-10">Trump trade</a>, which is predicated on corporate tax cuts and significant deficit spending, as well as hawkish trade and foreign policy, Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at <a target="_blank" href="http://Capital.com">Capital.com,</a> said in a note on election night."Deeper deficit spending implies stronger US growth, higher corporate profits (juiced by tax cuts), higher levels of debt, greater Treasury issuance, and marginally higher inflation," wrote Rodda."This dynamic draws investors into equities, especially 'old' or 'real' economy companies in the industrials, financials, materials and energy sectors, with the Dollar rising because of higher rates and upward pressure on yields from higher inflationary pressures and debt issuance," he added.US Treasury yields rose across the board on Tuesday night as investors view a second Trump presidential term as <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*4j037*_ga*MTM0MjM1NDU5My4xNjg1MTUzMTcw*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDg1ODYyOS4xNDM0LjEuMTczMDg1OTIxMC42MC4wLjA.">an inflationary event.</a> Trump has pledged to impose <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-trade-tax-proposal-inflation-interest-rates-outlooks-predictions-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">sweeping tariffs on imports</a>, which would stem currency outflow and drive up inflation and interest rates.The benchmark <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-10-years">10-year Treasury yield</a> climbed about 14 basis points to about 4.4315% as of 10:26 p.m. ET. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-2-years">two-year yield</a> gained 7 basis points to 4.2699%.Bets on higher interest rates sent the US dollar higher. The <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">US Dollar Index,</a> which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was trading 1.43% higher.The dollar gained 1.5% against the Japanese yen, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-jpy">USD/JPY</a> currency pair at 153.9. Meanwhile, the greenback was 1.5% higher against the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-eur">euro</a> and 3% higher against the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-mxn">Mexican peso.</a>Meanwhile, US futures moved higher on increasing prospects of a Trump win. Supporters of Trump's proposed tax and regulatory policies view them as pro-business moves that would boost corporate profits and deal activity.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/s&amp;p-500-futures">S&amp;P 500 futures</a> were up 1.25% higher, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/dow-futures">Dow Jones Industrial Average futures</a> were up 1.2%. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/nasdaq-100-futures">Nasdaq 100 futures</a> gained 1.2%.Cryptocurrencies are also gaining, with Bitcoin up 6.8%. Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-bitcoin-stance-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">endorsed digital assets</a> in recent years, and some investors are buying the asset as an inflation hedge.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/djt-stock">Trump Media and Technology Group</a> shares rallied 10.4% in after-hours trade after reporting third-quarter earnings, which initially sent shares down. The social media company, which trades under Trump's initials, reported an operating loss of $23.7 million and a net loss of $19.2 million. But it has no debt and a balance of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments of $673 million as of September 30 — sharply higher than in the second quarter."Markets are very thin and skittish, DJT exceptionally so," Steve Sosnick, the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told CNN.Rodda wrote that even though the Trump trade is playing out hours after the polls closed, it's still too early for confident calls."Ultimately, the counting is only just starting and a clear result is some way from being found. While some states have already been called by the media, most swing states have either just closed the polls and have just started tabulating votes, or are still open," he added.

The Trump trade is taking off on election night

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump's win is reducing uncertainty, boosting some employers' confidence about posting jobs.</li><li>Hiring experts anticipate a "Trump bump" for now despite concerns over tariffs and immigration.</li></ul>If you've been <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/finding-job-awful-right-now-drop-in-openings-tough-search-2024-9">looking for a job</a> and haven't had any luck, that could be about to change.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">Donald Trump's decisive win</a> ends some uncertainty about the broad direction of the US — and extinguishes worries that there will be a drawn-out fight over the outcome.Executives focused on hiring told Business Insider that the newfound clarity is already making some employers more willing to post jobs."Our phone was basically ringing off the hook with companies looking to hire," Lief Larson, CEO of Salesfolks, a staffing firm focused on sales roles, told BI. "Regardless of your political persuasion, there is no doubt that the market is anticipating a Trump bump."Knowing who will occupy the White House is a help to employers, employment experts told BI, even as questions remain about the fallout from a potential <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-threat-john-deere-economists-baffled-2024-9">increase in tariffs</a> or a reduction in immigration."Having the uncertainty behind us will prompt many — and encourage many — to start looking at increasing hiring," Tim Glowa, founder and CEO of HRbrain, which develops artificial intelligence tools for human resources, told BI.<h2 id="931ab304-0c3f-4e07-9067-9bcae5537e6c">Demand in tech</h2>It also helps that in the fourth quarter, some employers push to bring on people before the end of the year. Others prepare job descriptions to go up in January, said Michelle Volberg, a longtime recruiter who's founder and CEO of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.withtwill.com/">Twill</a>, a venture-backed startup that pays tech workers to recommend peers for key jobs."We're seeing a pretty healthy number of roles planning to be posted in January, probably more than we even expected," Volberg told BI. Volberg said she's seen an "upward trend" in the past 12 months that's now continuing."I don't see anything currently on the horizon that will challenge the US economy in any way," Volberg said.She said some of the demand is in tech, particularly from companies focused on AI looking to hire in engineering, product, sales, and marketing.That's welcome news because while the overall US unemployment rate remains low, some tech firms have been cutting in some roles and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-job-cuts-indicate-tech-companies-like-recurring-layoffs-2024-10">slow to hire</a> in other areas — much to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/job-seeker-applied-more-than-2000-roles-2024-9">frustration of job seekers</a>.Kathleen Lin Hurtubise, CEO and founder of Aloha Hospitality Professionals, a staffing firm focused on hospitality and light industrial workers, told BI that uncertainty over tax and immigration policies had led some of the company's customers to wait out the politics."We had a handful of clients who put us on pause until the elections," she said. Many employers, Hurtubise said, wanted to know how business decisions they had already made would likely play out once it became clear who would take the White House.<h2 id="11219916-ac03-49a8-ae71-be52cee6d5bf">More employers could turn to automation</h2>Jason Leverant, COO and president at AtWork Group, a staffing firm focused on areas including advanced manufacturing, logistics, and warehousing, told BI that a focus on bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US — so-called <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-manufacturing-production-boom-economy-made-in-america-trade-war-2024-10">reshoring efforts</a> that are already underway — could further help boost momentum in hiring for workers <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/employers-dropping-degree-requirements-slow-to-hire-for-skills-2024-10">without college degrees</a>.Yet, Leverant said, reshoring could be more expensive for employers and, when combined with talent shortages, could push more <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-wont-take-as-many-jobs-as-feared-altman-2024-9">companies to automate</a> where possible.Reduced immigration could also harm industries like construction and agriculture, where immigrants often fill many roles, he said."Do we start seeing a skills gap or a talent gap there?" Leverant said. He said such a chasm could eventually push wages higher in those areas if employers grow desperate for workers.Leverant said a focus by some in Trump's inner circle, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, on areas like workplace <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-optimus-humanoid-robots-robotaxi-day-2024-10">automation</a> could mean as some aspects of jobs go away, workers who get the right training could take on "more complex roles that even advanced robotics can't touch right now."<h2 id="efdae223-ce1f-4c24-b0c3-4c4f63bde68d">A postelection rush to hire</h2>Aaron Cleavinger, a managing partner at Murdoch Mason Executive Search Group, told BI that he's been "inundated" with new search requests from clients since the election.He said that likely reflects a mix of the typical end-of-year ramp-up and also several months' worth of demand by employers, particularly in areas like manufacturing, that held off posting jobs because of political uncertainty."Anything that they've been delaying for the last couple of months, they're finally releasing," Cleavinger said, referring to employers and job postings.Cleavinger said that in many cases, employers might have been agnostic about which candidate won and instead just wanted to know which way it would break."They say, 'Hey, just tell me what I can count on, and then I can build a plan around that,'" he said.Cleavinger said demand for hiring will vary by industry, as it often does. Yet he said for small and medium-sized companies, optimism that there could be tax cuts could help boost budgets for hiring.<h2 id="dfe0f4e6-90ea-4cf9-bd4f-582908e761ca">Obstacles could emerge</h2>Even as some employers look to increase hiring, getting — and keeping — a job might get harder for some workers. Peter Rahbar, an employment attorney and founder of the boutique law firm The Rahbar Group, told BI that he expects to see an erosion of protections afforded to federal workers, including those seeking jobs.If enforcement of antidiscrimination laws becomes deprioritized, Rahbar said, that could make it harder for some people, including women and minorities, to land and retain jobs.Rahbar said reductions to immigration could hurt industries beyond agriculture and construction, including tech. That's because some tech companies needing workers rely on skilled immigrants to fill some roles.For now, though, Cleavinger, from Murdoch Mason Executive Search Group, expects demand for workers will generally heat up."I expect a pretty significant uptick in hiring. We usually see that anyway at the end of the year, but I think it'll be a little more pronounced now," Cleavinger said.

What Trump's election victory means for job seekers

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Polls close Tuesday night, but it's unclear when we'll know the results of the 2024 election.</li><li>Some states' election laws allow for some votes to be counted before polls close; others do not.</li></ul>After nearly two years of campaigning, two assassination attempts, and an unprecedented decision by the sitting president to drop out of the race, the 2024 US presidential election is coming to an end.Polls have closed in some places, and results will begin rolling in soon.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-states-sun-belt-polls-2024-11">final week</a> of the race between Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a> and former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> was all about outrage, with each candidate trying to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-trump-harris-outrage-garbage-mark-cuban-puerto-rico-2024-11">amplify controversial comments</a> from the other's camp to try to shake up a race in which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-state-polls-photo-finish-2024-11">polls remained incredibly tight</a> to the end.The election is expected to come down to just seven states that polling has indicated either candidate could win: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.Each state has different election laws, and some are expected to take longer than others to count the vote. If the race is as tight as polling suggests, there's a very good chance we won't know who won the election until sometime after Tuesday night.Here's the latest — and what to watch for.<h2 id="15729b0a-41c1-4bdf-969a-d43a46391721">When we'll know the results in each state</h2>In some states, we may know the results pretty quickly. In others, counting may take days. Poll closing times listed below are in Eastern Time.7 p.m. — Polls close in Georgia, where a winner could be declared by late Tuesday night. Though the state took days to process mail-in ballots in 2020, a new law allowed election officials to begin tabulating those votes Tuesday morning, speeding up the process.7:30 p.m. — Polls close in North Carolina, which has historically counted votes quickly. A winner could be declared Tuesday night.8 p.m. — Polls close in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Michigan is expected to count ballots relatively quickly and could announce a result Tuesday night or early Wednesday.But the Pennsylvania count is expected to take days. That's because the election is expected to be so close in the Keystone State and because a big chunk of the electorate votes by mail, and officials can't begin to count those votes until polls close.In 2020, most news outlets didn't call Pennsylvania until Saturday — at which point Joe Biden became president-elect.9 p.m. — Polls close in Wisconsin and Arizona. We may not know the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/22/politics/vote-counting-delays-election-states/index.html">results in Wisconsin</a> until Wednesday, a state election official told CNN in September, in part because of the amount of time it takes to count absentee ballots in the heavily Democratic city of Milwaukee.Like Pennsylvania, Arizona's vote count is expected to take days, given that most of the electorate is expected to vote by mail. Initial results probably won't be available until 10 p.m.10 p.m. — Polls close in Nevada, which could also take days to count, given that most of the state is expected to vote by mail.<h2 id="7329bb1b-3a45-4204-887d-e708e935be38">How to read the Electoral College math</h2>The US uses the Electoral College to elect a president. Each state gets a set number of votes that correlates with its population — if a state has two US senators and three House members, it has five electoral votes.The winner must get at least 270 electoral votes — a majority of the 538 total. In the vast majority of states, either Harris or Trump is widely expected to win, leaving the campaigns to fight over the 93 electoral votes up for grabs in the seven battleground states.If Harris wins Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan on Tuesday night or early Wednesday, she will have a projected 273 electoral votes — enough to make her the winner.If Trump sweeps those states, he'll have a projected 266 electoral votes — not enough to be declared the winner but it would him in a very strong position to win.Harris' easiest path to victory would be to win the traditional "blue wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin — a result that should put her at 270 electoral votes. She has generally polled better in these states than the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.For Trump, one path to victory would involve holding on to all or most of the Sun Belt states while also winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin.

Election results are coming in soon. Here's where things stand.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>In hours, polls will close in the 2024 presidential election.</li><li>Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have fought over Pennsylvania, but both candidates have multiple paths.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-election-predictions-professional-investor-survey-2024-11">Election Day 2024</a> has arrived. Billions have been spent pushing voters to back specific candidates and causes.Vice President Kamala Harris upended the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-state-polls-photo-finish-2024-11">presidential race</a> with her late entry. Pre-election polling showed her race against former President Donald Trump could be the closest in history. The margins are so tight that a potential polling error could result in an unexpected blowout.More than 78 million Americans have already voted early, either in person or by mail. Final turnout may dip slightly from the historic mark set in 2020, but a pre-election Gallup poll showed voter <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/democrats-republicans-voter-enthusiasm-swing-state-polls-2024-10">enthusiasm above 2008 levels.</a>It's not just control of the White House. Congress is up for grabs, too. Republicans are favored to retake the Senate, thanks to key races occurring on favorable turf. The House is tougher to project. Republicans could net a few seats, or Democrats could flip the chamber with an equally narrow majority. Just like in 2018, New York and California, hardly competitive in the presidential race, loom large.Here's what we're watching.<h2 id="dbd2c6b7-9d67-4564-b035-dd49e1633343">How Trump or Harris will win the White House</h2>Harris' easiest path to victory remains what was once President Biden's last resort: holding Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District — the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-blue-wall-economic-message-unions-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin-2024-10">so-called "Blue Wall" </a>and the "Blue Dot." Barring any unexpected upsets, Harris would then win the Electoral College 270 to 268.Trump's easiest route to victory also goes through Pennsylvania, the most important swing state. Winning Pennsylvania would likely allow Trump to retake the White House by holding North Carolina and flipping back Georgia. In that scenario, he could even sustain the blow of losing an Electoral College vote in Nebraska, which pre-election polling shows is very likely.While so much focus is deservedly on Pennsylvania, Trump spent significant time in the race's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-campaign-schedule-final-days-election-north-carolina-pennsylvania-2024-11">final days in North Carolina</a>, even though only two Democrats, Presidents Obama and Carter, have won the Tar Heel state since 1976.<h2 id="33a8541d-7186-485c-9f39-513897c661cf">These are the bellwether counties to watch.</h2>Bucks County, Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro recently called this Philadelphia metro-area county, "the swingiest of all swing counties in the swingiest of all swing states." Hillary Clinton won Bucks by less than 3,000 votes in 2016 and lost both the state and the White House. President Biden won it by just over 17,000 votes four years ago en route to taking his native turf by a roughly 80,000 vote margin. If Trump wants to retake Pennsylvania, doing well here is key.Waukesha County, Wisconsin: Once traditional GOP ground, this Milwaukee-suburban county area has moved closer to Democrats-like suburbs nationwide in the Trump era. Trump routed Clinton here in 2016, but his margin decreased by just over 7 points four years later, as he lost the state by a roughly 21,000-vote margin to Biden.Maricopa County, Arizona: In 2020, the home to Phoenix, the fastest-growing county in the nation, swung to Democrats by just over 2 points. President Biden went on to win the state by just roughly 10,000 votes. In contrast, then-Gov. Doug Ducey, a popular Republican, won the county by almost 14 points two yeas prior.<h2 id="563abb9a-9c88-4a29-ab86-330b0cf1d83b">Here's what early exit polls could tell us:</h2>Exit polls will provide the first major at who turned out to vote early in the evening after the embargo lifts at 5 pm Eastern Time, though specific data on who may win a state is held back until polls close in that area.Though exit polls can offer valuable data, especially about demographics, they are often misleading and are not predictive of an eventual winner.Mark Blumenthal, a contractor at YouGov and previous head of election polling at SurveyMonkey, told Business Insider he will interested in how the vote ends up breaking down by gender and race, particularly given the speculation that Democrats are losing ground among Black and Latino voters.Overall, though, he cautions against making too much of exit polls on election night itself. "As a means of trying to see who is going to win, between the time when they start being released, which is usually 5 pm Eastern tomorrow, and when we get a final count, my advice is to ignore them," Blumenthal said. "Utterly, completely ignore them. Go for a walk. Go take a yoga class, watch something on Netflix, because they're not designed to tell us who's going to be the winner of the presidential election."<h2 id="db285587-345b-4cbd-b4cf-b803271c2358">Republicans are favored to retake control of the Senate.</h2>Michigan: Rep. Elissa Slotkin is trying to hang onto this open senate seat that her fellow Democrats have held for 20 years. Former Congressman Mike Rogers, once a Trump critic, hopes the former president will push him over the top. Rogers and his allies have zeroed in on Slotkin's support for the White House's fuel efficiency standards that do not mandate electric vehicle production but would likely result in the auto industry producing more EVs. Pre-election polling: Slotin was up by roughly 3 points, per RealClearPolitics' averageOhio: Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, has managed to survive past challenges in the former swing state that now tilts toward Republicans. His challenger, Cleveland Businessman Bernie Moreno, has hammered Brown over immigration. According to AdImpact, the Ohio Senate race is the most expensive non-presidential race ever. Pre-election polling: Moreno was up by less than 1 point, per RealClearPolitics' average.Montana: Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat, is facing an even tougher challenge in Montana, a state Trump carried by over 16 points in 2020. Republicans worked hard to elevate <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tim-sheehy-montana-senate-gunshot-wound-questions-tester-2024-11">Tim Sheehy</a>, a wealthy aerospace executive, even though expectations of a bruising primary did not come to pass. Like other Republican hopefuls, Sheehy has done everything possible to tie Harris to Tester. Pre-election polling: Sheehy was up by 6.5 points, per RealClearPolitics' average.<h2 id="55c3c49d-49e9-4d7b-b097-24845da6f374">The House is much closer.</h2>Arizona 1st District: Rep. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/david-schweikert-profile-trump-realignment-arizona-economic-interests-abortion-2024-10">David Schweikert</a>, a Republican, has represented Scottsdale and its surrounding areas in Congress for almost 14 years. Gov. Katie Hobbs and Sen. Mark Kelly easily won the area, one of the most educated districts still held by a Republican. His challenger, former state Rep. Amish Shah, has highlighted his centrist record and is hoping Trump's unpopularity will sink Schweikert.New York 19th: Rep. Marc Molinaro was one of four Republicans who flipped a Democratic-held seat during the 2018 midterms in New York, a margin that proved vital to the GOP retaking the chamber. Democrats are hoping Josh Riley, a lawyer and policy analyst, can win in a rematch two years later with the help of Harris at the top of the ticket. More than $35 million has been spent on the race, making it the most expensive House contest in the nation.California 22nd: Rep. David Valadao is one of 18 House Republicans representing a district President Biden won in 2020. Valadao is also one of the only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the January 6 Capitol riot. Former state Rep. Rudy Salas is like many Democrats in key races, hoping to win in a rematch after falling short two years ago.

What to watch for on Election Day as Harris and Trump face off

In response to requests from multiple political parties, the <keyword id="19895782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="election-commission" source="keywords">Election Commission</keyword> (EC) has decided to postpone upcoming by-elections in <keyword id="19894922" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="uttar-pradesh" source="keywords">Uttar Pradesh</keyword>, Kerala, and Punjab. Originally scheduled for November 13, the polls will now take place on November 20. This rescheduling aims to accommodate local festivities and boost voter turnout. The EC’s decision follows appeals from parties like the <keyword id="19895371" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="congress" source="keywords">Congress</keyword> (INC), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and <keyword id="19984283" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rashtriya-lok-dal" source="keywords">Rashtriya Lok Dal</keyword> (RLD), which expressed concerns over potential low turnout due to regional celebrations during the original polling date. The Congress highlighted that in Kerala's 56-Palakkad Assembly Constituency, many residents will participate in the Kalpathi Ratholsavam festival, a major event set to run from November 13 to 15. Similarly, representatives from the BJP, BSP, and RLD raised concerns in Uttar Pradesh, where people begin travelling several days in advance for <keyword id="22124352" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kartik-purnima" source="keywords">Kartik Purnima</keyword>, an important festival observed in the state. In Punjab, the Congress pointed out that celebrations for the 555th Prakash Parv of Sri Guru Nanak Dev Ji are scheduled for November 15, with religious observances starting on November 13. These festivals are expected to draw significant portions of the electorate, particularly in rural areas. The EC has previously demonstrated flexibility to prioritise voter participation by adjusting poll dates to avoid clashes with religious or cultural events. In recent years, polling dates were modified for various elections, including the <keyword id="23790298" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="punjab-state-elections" source="keywords">Punjab State Elections</keyword> 2022 during the Shri Guru Ravidas Jayanti, and the <keyword id="23790297" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="uttar-pradesh-assembly-elections" source="keywords">Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections</keyword> 2012 for <keyword id="23790296" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="barawafat" source="keywords">Barawafat</keyword>. Similar changes were made in Manipur, Mizoram, and Rajasthan to respect community schedules and increase voter convenience. With this adjustment, one assembly constituency in Kerala, four in Punjab, and nine in Uttar Pradesh will now hold their by-polls on November 20, while the dates for vote counting and final poll completion remain set for November 23 and 25, respectively. (With inputs from agencies)

By-polls in Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, and Punjab rescheduled due to clash with religious festivals — check new dates here

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Gen X and younger voters shifted right in recent polls, favoring Trump more than they did in 2020.</li><li>Economic concerns and social media strategies influenced Gen Z's political shift.</li></ul>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/business-leaders-react-donald-trump-winning-election-silicon-valley-2024-11">2024 election</a> saw some big shifts in how the generations voted, early exit poll data suggested.Democrats lost a lot of ground with Gen Z, while Republicans won Gen X by a much wider margin than in 2020. Meanwhile, millennials had a much smaller rightward shift, and boomers were actually more likely to vote Democratic than four years ago.The results challenge some long-held stereotypes about generations' political positions. For example, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-and-gen-z-will-bring-down-the-gop-2021-7">presumed progressive Gen Zers</a> showed more <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-changes-political-divides-2019-7">conservative leanings</a> this election than the last, and aging boomers <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/there-are-two-americas-and-age-divider">shirked the notion</a> that they're growing more conservative with age.To be sure, early exit poll data has a wide margin of error. As more votes are counted in the coming days and months, more precise data on the shape of the 2024 electorate will be released.The youngest voters and those entering middle age tacked hard to the right. Gen X — which slightly favored president-elect Donald Trump with a one-point margin in 2020 — shifted 9 points toward Trump this cycle. Gen Z favored Vice President Kamala Harris by 11 points, compared to 24 points for President Joe Biden.Meanwhile, millennials and their boomer parents were less likely to move toward Trump. Millennials favored Harris by one point, a five-point shift down from Biden's six-point margin in 2020. Boomers went from supporting Trump by five points in 2020 to a flat tie between the two candidates this year, and were the only age group that voted more Democratic.Gen Z's big shift to the right wasn't entirely unexpected. Teens were twice as likely to identify as more conservative than their parents compared to millennials 20 years ago, per a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theupandup.us/p/gen-z-teens-conservative-shift-gallup-data">Gallup and Walton Family Foundation</a> study conducted last fall.The Trump campaign put a lot of focus on this age group. Andrew Heyward, a former president of CBS News, told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/07/business/media/trump-media-strategy-podcasts.html">The New York Times</a> that Trump has become a "master of evolving media" for partnering with online influencers and personalities. Trump frequently appeared on podcasts, streams, and TikToks <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://business.yougov.com/content/47483-whos-listening-to-the-joe-rogan-experience-men-mostly">consumed predominantly</a> by Gen Z and millennial audiences, including The Joe Rogan Experience.That strategy may have convinced younger voters that the GOP gets them better than the Democrats. "People don't really vote for what they want, they vote for who they are," Jason Brennan, a professor of strategy, public policy, and economics at Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business, told BI."I think a lot of young men look at the messaging of Democrats and are turned off by it," Brennan said, and it could at least partially explain the generational shifts.Gen Z's Gen X-er parents — or at least some of them — are also tilting right, as the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/typical-gen-x-debt-net-worth-income-earnings-caregiving-stress-2021-8">forgotten middle child</a> of generations dramatically shifted toward Trump.Gen X already disapproved of Biden the most among generations, per <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.npr.org/2023/12/27/1217878506/gen-x-conservative-disapprove-biden">late 2023 polling from NPR, PBS NewsHour, and Marist</a>.Their role stuck between caring for children and aging parents <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meet-gen-x-sandwich-generation-tasked-with-parents-kids-care-2022-4">has them</a> in an especially precarious economic spot. They're the generation <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-x-age-income-debt-forgotten-middle-child-struggling-financially-2023-12">most likely</a> to say that they don't feel financially secure. Many are concerned about saving for retirement, while some continue to be stressed out about homebuying. Some long for the success of their boomer and silent generation parents, Amy Walter, a nonpartisan political analyst with The Cook Political Report, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.npr.org/2023/12/27/1217878506/gen-x-conservative-disapprove-biden">told NPR</a>.Meanwhile, boomers are a bit more of a puzzle, according to Brennan. Their shift might come down to a dark demographic reality— male boomers are more likely to die earlier than their female counterparts, and women tend to be more likely to vote Democratic than men. But, more broadly, the results could also be chalked to a lack of enthusiasm."What it takes to win is you have to get your base to come out, and then you have to get the swing voters to shift towards you," Brennan said.Are you a Gen Z who shifted right or a boomer who shifted left? Contact these reporters at <a target="_blank" class="" href="mailto:jkaplan@businessinsider.com">jkaplan@businessinsider.com</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="mailto:nsheidlower@businessinsider.com">nsheidlower@businessinsider.com</a>.

Forget swing states. Here's how the generations flipped on Election Day.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Companies from United to Nestlé have talked about a sales slowdown due to the presidential election.</li><li>Experts say some shoppers are holding back until after November 5 — but not everyone.</li></ul>Companies are bracing for people to shop, travel, and drink less around <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-going-on-with-economy-jobs-inflation-election-voting-2024-10">Election Day</a>.Executives at some major brands have said on earnings calls in recent weeks that they expect their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-impact-companies-trump-harris-2024-10">financial results to take a hit</a> around the time voters will decide between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. They range from Constellation Brands, the maker of Modelo, which expects fewer people to go out drinking around the election, to airlines like United and Delta, which often see passenger counts dip around Election Day.Some companies already have seen political news distract customers. When a gunman died after injuring Trump at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania in July, for instance, Amazon saw some people put off making purchases on the website, CFO Brian Olsavsky said in August."A lot of times, purchases will defer and people will come back and buy what they were going to buy," Olsavsky said on a call with reporters. "And other times — that won't happen."Other companies have invoked the election but not provided details about the dynamics leading consumers to pull back. Anna Manz, CFO of Nestlé, said on the company's earnings call last week that it's facing a slowdown in the US and "concerns around the elections are playing out." Nestlé did not immediately respond to a request for more details from Business Insider.Research suggests that some consumers — though not all — do indeed reduce purchases around the event.Some shoppers are holding off on making purchases until after November 5, according to a September survey of 400 Kroger shoppers by 84.51, the grocer's marketing subsidiary. Eighteen percent of those surveyed said they were holding off on buying big-ticket items such as electronics or appliances. Slightly smaller percentages said they were holding off on an investment decision or buying a car.Consumers might be holding off on big purchases because they need loans and hope that interest rates will fall more in the months after the election, said Alex Trott, director of insights at 84.51. But some might not actually care as much about the election as the seasonal promotions that tend to follow in November and December, she added. "We are also bumping up against a holiday season where there are always sales," Trott said.People under 34 were also more likely than older consumers to put off a major financial commitment until after the election, 84.51 found.Older consumers, such as Baby Boomers and members of Gen X, "can make some of these bigger decisions," said Trott. "Younger people don't have that spending power. They are sensitive to these smaller price changes."Most people — 53%, according to 84.51 — said they weren't delaying any big purchases as a result.This US election is taking place after years of inflation have squeezed consumers. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pennsylvania-grocery-store-voters-talk-economy-inflation-harris-trump-2024-10">The economy is a top concern</a>, voters told BI this week. Deutsche Bank said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sticky-inflation-outlook-risk-cpi-fed-rate-cuts-geopolitics-recession-2024-10">inflation will remain stickier than expected</a>.Many companies are also forecasting that demand will return after either Trump or Harris wins the election. Modelo maker Constellation, for instance, said it expects beer demand to pick up again.Ron Hill, a professor at American University's Kogod School of Business, said consumers' retreat could last longer if determining who won takes weeks.Polls show that the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-presidential-election-swing-state-polls-sun-belt-2024-10">race between Trump and Harris</a> is close to a toss-up just over a week ahead of Election Day. If the race comes down to a single evenly divided state, as it did in 2000, when it took five weeks beyond election day to determine that George W. Bush had won the White House, shoppers might spend more time focused on that news and less time making discretionary purchases, Hill said."That's going to be hell to pay" if that happens, he said.

Election Day stress is affecting some companies' sales

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US election showed shades of the meme stock mania of early 2021.</li><li>Elon Musk and Mark Cuban featured both times, traders bet big, and young men played key roles.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk">Elon Musk</a> and Mark Cuban trumpet their picks and excite their followers on social media. Amateur traders scramble to place speculative bets. Disaffected young men post memes to rally support for their revolution against the elites.That may sound like a description of the frenzied days leading up to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-analysis-harris-immigration-abortion-economy-musk-2024-11">US presidential election</a> this week. It could also describe the meme stock craze of early 2021.The two events have striking similarities. Both featured celebrity billionaires championing their favorites. Musk <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/gamestop-stock-price-elon-musk-gamestonk-tweet-extends-trading-rally-2021-1">tweeted</a> "GameStonk!!" at the height of the short squeeze on GameStop stock in January 2021, then <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/dogecoin-price-elon-musk-twitter-cryptocurrency-market-trading-reddit-doge-2021-2">posted</a> "Dogecoin is the people's crypto" a few days later, causing both assets to spike in price. In September of this year, the Tesla CEO <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/musk-donated-million-ron-desantis-changed-tack-bet-on-trump-2024-10">posted</a> on X: "Unless Trump is elected, America will fall to tyranny."Similarly, in February 2021, Cuban <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-cuban-thanks-wallstreetbets-advises-hold-gamestop-stock-robinhood-reddit-2021-2">thanked</a> members of Reddit's WallStreetBets forum for "changing the game" and "taking on Wall Street." Two months later, the "Shark Tank" star tweeted that dogecoin was the "one coin that people actually use for transactions."Cuban <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-cuban-kamala-harris-donald-trump-economic-plans-2024-8">threw his weight behind</a> Kamala Harris going into the election, praising the Democratic candidate and criticizing Trump in several since-deleted X posts."It's certainly got hallmarks of the kind of vibes-based, personality-based cultish side," Neil Wilson, the chief market analyst at Finalto, told Business Insider about the election conversation this year.<h2 id="7d9e95dc-2060-4569-ac60-cb58c6e78915">Trading frenzy</h2>Retail traders bet big on both occasions. They <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/reddit-traders-memes-crypto-stock-market-wall-street-strikes-back-2021-12">piled</a> into beaten-down stocks, SPACs, crypto, and other high-risk assets in early 2021. Similarly, they <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kalshi-polymarket-top-apple-app-store-downloads-election-betting-surge-2024-11">plowed</a> millions of dollars into Polymarket and other prediction-betting markets before the polls closed and Trump secured victory.Stars emerged both times. Keith "Roaring Kitty" Gill became the face of the GameStop craze for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/keith-gill-gamestop-stock-bet-79-million-one-day-gain-2024-6">ostensibly making</a> tens of millions of dollars on the video game retailer's stock. A French trader known as Théo <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-banked-85-million-profit-trump-president-election-win-2024-11">racked up</a> similar profits betting on Trump via Polymarket.Young men played an outsize role in both sagas. In 2021, they flocked to the WSB subreddit and other social media to share their stock picks, exchange funny memes, and share screenshots of their wins and losses. Their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-trader-made-1300-percent-return-tesla-stock-rally-2020-2">motives</a> ranged from wanting to get rich quickly, to having a laugh, to fighting back against the Wall Street elite they saw as bullying the businesses of their childhood.<h2 id="c1b692d8-9e77-48f8-82d0-4c4d6b810ca3">Winning men</h2>Men under 30 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-2024-election-win-5-stats-to-explain-result-2024-11">rallied behind Trump en masse</a> this year, framing his campaign as a common-sense revolution against an oppressive establishment, lying media, and unfair system. Along with memes, they used AI-generated artwork to paint Trump and those around him as superheroes and patriotic titans. Trump and Musk <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-targets-young-men-theo-von-logan-paul-adin-ross-2024-8">galvanized young men</a> with X posts, speaking to "manosphere" stars such as Joe Rogan, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-joe-rogan-interview-podcast-young-male-voters-2024-10">promoting</a> traditional masculine ideals. The upshot was a stark shift among men under 30 in favor of Republicans compared to previous elections."It is hard not to attribute momentum gains in Trump support among younger male voters to Musk's or Rogan's endorsements," Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert, told BI. He likened the trend to Musk's touting of dogecoin, which boosted the dog-themed crypto. Wall Street traders watched the swings in election betting markets to assess the state of the presidential race and inform their investments, Malek added.<h2 id="5e5ff9c8-86ff-4d6a-bc55-54b2a03ceb6a">Memes with meaning</h2>Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets, told BI he saw "strong similarities" between the two events but with some twists this time."In 2021, WallStreetBets (WSB) aimed at the money bigwigs, rallying against hedge funds. But now, the target list has grown. It's not just Wall Street in the crosshairs. Washington, the media, and what many call the 'establishment' are all fair game," he said."The meme-driven buzz from 2021 has returned, but now it's mixed with a strong ideological element making today's speculative scene wider and longer-lasting."Trump Media &amp; Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social which counts the president-elect as its majority shareholder, unites several of these ideas. It became a proxy for Trump's chances at returning to the White House and has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-us-presidential-election-dollar-treasuries-stocks-crypto-djt-2024-11">swung dramatically</a> in recent days.Tesla stock also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-trump-win-elon-musk-election-tsla-2024-11">surged</a> 15% on Wednesday after Trump won, even as other clean-energy stocks tanked in anticipation of a less green administration. Malek said it was clear that "some sort of premium has been placed on the stock as a result of Musk's very public involvement in Trump's campaign.""Tesla is by no means a meme stock, but its recent move certainly has notes of one," he added.There are clear parallels between the meme stock mania of early 2021 and the social-media chatter and betting-platform activity going into the election. But it's worth acknowledging the difference in scale and stakes between the two episodes."One is selecting someone to run a country and make decisions that will affect millions of people's lives, the other is about a relatively small group of people hoping to make a quick buck," Dan Coatsworth, an investment analyst at AJ Bell, told BI.

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