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<div class="KonaFilter image-container"><div class="image">NOAASea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean (above). El Niño is characterized by unusually warm temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.</div></div>
The "El Nino" phenomenon, which sparks climate extremes around the globe, is likely to take hold in the Pacific Ocean by the end of the year and could even do so within weeks, the UN said on Thursday.
There was an 80 percent likelihood that El Nino could start between October and November and 60 percent that it would do so between now and end of August, said the UN's weather agency, the World Meteorological Organization.
The El Nino phenomenon -- which can lead to extremes including droughts and heavy rainfall across the globe -- occurs every two to seven years, when the prevailing trade winds that circulate over surface waters in the tropical Pacific start to weaken.
The phenomenon, which last occurred between June 2009 and May 2010, can play havoc for farmers and global agricultural markets.
It leaves countries like India, Indonesia and Australia drier, increasing chances of wildfires and lower crop production, while leading to heavier rainfall in the eastern Pacific and South American nations, raising the spectre of floods and landslides.
"El Nino leads to extreme events and has a pronounced warming effect," said WMO chief Michel Jarraud.
El Nino drags precipitation across the Pacific, leaving countries including India and Indonesia drier.
India's monsoon rains have already arrived five days later than normal, and the prospect of a weak rainy season has raised fears of lower crop production and rising food prices.
In Indonesia, there are concerns that dry conditions could fan wildfires caused by slash-and-burn techniques used to clear land quickly and cheaply.
Fires on Indonesia's western Sumatra island last June already caused the worst haze in Southeast Asia for more than a decade, affecting daily life for millions and sparking a heated diplomatic row with neighboring Singapore and Malaysia.
Australia also tends to be drier during an El Nino, increasing the risk of bush fires.
El Nino-year winters are generally drier in the north of the United States and Europe.
El Nino also causes heavier-than-normal rainfall in the eastern Pacific and South America -- raising the spectre of floods and landslides, as well as shifting nutrient-rich ocean currents that lure fish.
In the past, that has battered local fishing industries and caused diplomatic battles over shifting fishing zones.
The southwest United States and southern Africa, meanwhile, tend to be drier, while east Africa faces heavy rainfall.
- Vulnerable to 'force of nature' -
The name El Nino is believed to have been coined in the 19th century after Peruvian fisherman observed it around Christmas -- the word is Spanish for "boy", in reference to the infant Jesus Christ.
La Nina, the word for "girl", was devised later to label the reverse phenomenon, which is characterized by unusually cool ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, the last of which ended in April 2012.
Both are significant markers of global climate fluctuations.
"Our understanding of El Nino and La Nina has increased dramatically in recent years and this knowledge has enabled us to develop very successful climate services for society," said Jarraud.
"Advance warning has given governments around the world time to make contingency plans for the impact of this year's expected El Nino on the agriculture, water management, health and other climate-sensitive sectors," he said.
"We remain vulnerable to this force of nature but we can protect ourselves by being better prepared," he added.
The two climate patterns are watched carefully by scientists who say that, while they are not caused by climate change, rising ocean temperatures stoked by global warming may affect their intensity and frequency.
"It is too early to assess the precise impact on global temperatures in 2014, but we expect the long-term warming trend to continue as a result of rising greenhouse gas concentrations," noted Jarraud.
<div>
Copyright (2014) AFP. All rights reserved.
</div>

Prepare For El Nino

As expected, the <keyword id="6354335" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="30067" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="RBI">RBI</keyword>) kept key rates unchanged. While the repo rate was maintained at 8% and reverse repo rate at 7%, the <keyword id="6493444" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="statutory-liquidity-ratio">statutory liquidity ratio</keyword> (SLR) was slashed by 50 basis points. 

	The cash reserve ratio was also kept unchanged at 4%. 
 "At this juncture, it is appropriate to leave the policy rate unchanged and to allow the disinflationary effects of rate increases undertaken during September 2013-January 2014 to mitigate inflationary pressures in the economy," said RBI governor <keyword id="6358908" type="PERSON" weightage="100" keywordseo="Raghuram-Rajan">Raghuram Rajan</keyword>. 

	"Lead indicators point to continuing sluggishness in domestic economic activity in the first quarter of 2014-15. The outlook for agriculture is clouded by the meteorological department's forecasts of a delay in the onset of the south-west monsoon with a 60% chance of the occurrence of El Nino," the RBI said.
 "CPI <keyword id="22195" type="COMPANY" weightage="100" keywordseo="Inflation">inflation</keyword> excluding food and fuel has moderated gradually since September 2013 although it is still elevated," the RBI emphasised. 

	"The risks to the central forecast of 8% CPI inflation by January 2015 remain broadly balanced. Upside risks in the form of a sub-normal/delayed monsoon on account of possible El Nino effects, geo-political tensions and their impact on fuel prices, and uncertainties surrounding the setting of administered prices appear at this stage to be balanced by the possibility of stronger government action on food supply and better fiscal consolidation, as well as the pass through of recent exchange rate appreciation.

RBI Keeps Repo Rate Unchanged; SLR Slashed By 50 BP

The <keyword id="6354335" type="CITY" weightage="80" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) might not go for more <keyword id="6752353" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="80" keywordseo="Rate-cuts">rate cuts</keyword> this year. An <keyword id="6358584" type="CITY" weightage="80" keywordseo="HSBC">HSBC</keyword> report has suggested that weak rainfall, resulting from <keyword id="51549" type="PERSON" weightage="80" keywordseo="El-Nino">El Nino</keyword>, likely to have a substantial impact on food inflation and could directly impact rural household consumption. HSBC's <keyword id="234293" type="POSITION" weightage="80" keywordseo="chief-India-economist">Chief India Economist</keyword> <keyword id="192974" type="PERSON" weightage="80" keywordseo="Pranjul-Bhandari">Pranjul Bhandari</keyword> expects no further easing this year and believes any more rate cuts could hinge on structural reforms, including food infrastructure and agricultural policy. 

	As per a PTI report, the global financial services major has said that El Nino risks cannot be underestimated, and going by the updates from across the world, El Nino conditions are likely to last longer and intensify in the second half of 2015.
 The HSBC report further said the magnitude of the impact would depend on how the government carries out its "<keyword id="972970" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Food-Management">food management</keyword>" processes. In case fear over <keyword id="6358301" type="COMPANY" weightage="80" keywordseo="Monsoon">monsoon</keyword> comes true, the central bank has indicated that the monetary policy would hinge on the government's response to it. 

	The RBI has said, "A conservative strategy would be to wait, especially for more certainty, on both the monsoon out turn as well as the effects of government responses if it turns out to be weak." 
 

	Meanwhile, the central bank has raised its inflation forecast to 6% by January 2016 - slightly higher than the 5.8% forecast in April. 
 

	In the policy review on June 2, the RBI has cut benchmark rate by 0.25% for the third time this year to spur investment and growth, but hinted that there may not be any more reduction in the near term. 
	 
	(Image: Indiatimes)

Thanks to El Nino! RBI might not go for more rate cuts

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">REUTERS/Toby MelvilleAn employee uses a cash till behind a chocolate shaped as a one Euro coin and placed for sale in a coffee cup, at a cafe in central London, October 15, 2014.</div></div></div>Persistent drought conditions exacerbated by the <a href="http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/south-america-summer-forecast-2015-2016/53158136">El Niño weather system</a> could damage coffee crops around the world and cause a spike in the crop's price.Dryness in Brazil and Indonesia, the second- and third-largest <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-el-nino-drought-damage-robusta-output-could-drive-up-prices-2015-11" target="_blank">producers</a> of robusta beans, appears likely to be intensified by El Niño, which, according to Reuters, endangers production. (Brazil is the <a href="http://www.ecf-coffee.org/about-coffee/coffee-facts" target="_blank">world's largest</a> overall coffee producer, while Indonesia is number three.)In Colombia, the <a href="http://www.ecf-coffee.org/about-coffee/coffee-facts" target="_blank">second-largest producer</a> of arabica beans after Brazil, El Nino-related dryness seems poised to worsen an already intense drought, which could damage the country's output.Arabica and robusta beans are the two most common types of coffee beans grown around the world. Arabica beans make up <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2009/06/arabica-vs-robusta-no-contest/19780/" target="_blank">the majority</a> of the world's production and are generally <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2009/06/arabica-vs-robusta-no-contest/19780/" target="_blank">regarded</a> as of higher quality than <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2009/06/arabica-vs-robusta-no-contest/19780/" target="_blank">robusta beans</a>, which are grown at lower altitudes and usually <a href="http://www.ico.org/" target="_blank">sell for much cheaper</a>.<h2>The financials</h2>Concerns about Brazilian coffee output - which rose by <a href="http://www.as-coa.org/blogs/s%C3%A3o-paulo-2015-blog-fast-facts-brazils-economy">nearly 24%</a> in the first quarter of this year - focus on the coastal state of Espirito Santo, just north of Rio de Janeiro, which <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-el-nino-drought-damage-robusta-output-could-drive-up-prices-2015-11">leads Brazil</a> in robusta-bean production.The entire country, however, is currently facing a severe drought, and its most populous region is mired in the worst dry spell since data collection began more than <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-30962813">80 years ago</a>. As a result, Benchmark ICE futures for robusta-type coffee reached $1,856 per ton ($1,684 per metric ton) on November 5, likely driven up by worries about supplies diminished by drought related toEl Niño weather conditions in Brazil and Indonesia, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-el-nino-drought-damage-robusta-output-could-drive-up-prices-2015-11">according to Reuters</a>. <div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">REUTERS/Paulo WhitakerA worker carries packs of arabica coffee beans at Conquista farm in Alfenas in the southern Brazilian city of Minas Gerais, July 7, 2008.</div></div></div>Drought in Espirito Santo has caused robusta output in Brazil <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-el-nino-drought-damage-robusta-output-could-drive-up-prices-2015-11" target="_blank">to fall</a> from 13.04 million 132-pound bags during the 2014-2015 season to 10.85 million during the 2015-2016 season, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-el-nino-drought-damage-robusta-output-could-drive-up-prices-2015-11" target="_blank">according to Reuters</a>. Forecasts from earlier this year saw the downturn in robusta production leading <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/25/us-brazil-coffee-output-idUSKBN0ML1OV20150325#S8I5j7yYqLScxIhc.97" target="_blank">an overall decline</a> in Brazilian coffee production. Irrigation bans are in place in Espirito Santo due to the ongoing drought, and, depending on possible rains in the coming days, may to remain in place until the end of this month."At the moment it does not look likely that the authorities will lift the irrigation bans," in Espiritu Santo, Carlos Mera, an analyst with Rabobank, told Reuters.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image">ReutersMaps coffee-producing countries, includes chart of top consumers and prices.</div></div></div>Robusta production in Indonesia, the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-el-nino-drought-damage-robusta-output-could-drive-up-prices-2015-11" target="_blank">third-largest producer</a> of that type of bean, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-el-nino-drought-damage-robusta-output-could-drive-up-prices-2015-11">could drop</a> from 6.7 million 132-pound bags in 2015 to 5.8 million to 6 million bags next year, depending on how badly El Niño affects the crops - a decline that could cause a dramatic spike in the cost of robusta beans,Saimi Saleh, the deputy chairman of the Associate of Indonesian Coffee Exporters and Industries, explained to Reuters.Robusta beans make up <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-02/el-nino-seen-curbing-indonesia-s-coffee-harvest-10-after-record" target="_blank">more than 80%</a> of Indonesia's production, and some observers believe the country will be the hardest-hit producer. "Out of all the effects that El Nino has on coffee production worldwide, its effects on Indonesia are the most likely," Carlos Mera, a Rabobank analyst, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-02/el-nino-seen-curbing-indonesia-s-coffee-harvest-10-after-record" target="_blank">told</a> Bloomberg in October."If El Nino goes on like this, world prices could be doubled," Saleh <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-el-nino-drought-damage-robusta-output-could-drive-up-prices-2015-11" target="_blank">told</a> Reuters.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">REUTERS/YT HaryonoFemale workers sort coffee beans in Medan, Indonesia's North Sumatra province April 25, 2013.</div></div></div>Other observers cautioned that it isn't yet clear what, if any, effect adverse weather conditions could have on prices."Despite El Nino-related losses in Brazil and Indonesia, we cannot get too bullish on robusta prices," a broker in London told Reuters. "This would change if the drought continues for a few more weeks."He also noted it would require a "huge loss" of around 3 million bags to offset additional production from Vietnam. <h2>'We farmers are in total despair'</h2>Brazilian and Indonesian farmers aren't the only ones facing El Niño-related uncertainty either.In Colombia, the world's third-largest producer of coffee, an ongoing drought driven by El Niño <a href="http://www.cafedecolombia.com/bb-fnc-en/index.php/comments/how_el_nino_la_nina_affect_production_of_cafe_de_colombia/">threatens the health</a> of this season's coffee crop, while adverse labor conditions could mean healthy beans get left to spoil.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">REUTERS/Jose Miguel GomezA Colombian coffee grower picks coffee beans in a farm near the small town of Monserrate, July 18, 2008. Monserrate, with about 2,000 inhabitants, is located 1,700 meters high, amid the mountains of the department of Huila.</div></div></div>In October, coffee futures <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-16/coffee-falls-most-since-may-as-more-colombia-supplies-hit-market">fell the most</a> they had in seven months after Colombian coffee growers, who supply the <a href="http://www.ecf-coffee.org/about-coffee/coffee-facts">second-most</a> arabica beans in the world, announced they would ease restrictions on exports to aid farmers who were dealing with drought conditions.Projections announced in October saw Colombian production <a href="http://colombiareports.com/colombia-coffee-producers-face-crisis-due-to-el-nino-water-shortages/">falling 18%</a> in the second half of the year. Roberto Velez, the head of the Colombian Coffee Growers Federation, <a href="http://colombiareports.com/colombia-coffee-producers-face-crisis-due-to-el-nino-water-shortages/">attributed</a> the decrease to El Niño, which will also negatively affect the quality of beans produced.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image"><a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AColombia_location_map_(english).svg">Manuel Balarezo/Wikimedia Commons</a>Colombia's administrative departments. Coffee production occurs mainly in the north and west of the country.</div></div></div>The northern and western parts of Colombia have been experiencing El Niño-related dryness since earlier this year, and conditions are expected to intensify. Water shortages related to the weather phenomenon have prompted some <a href="http://colombiareports.com/colombia-should-declare-state-of-emergency-over-el-nino-inspector-general/">to call for</a> a national state of emergency."It has been nearly six months, and they forecast it will be like this for five months more, Raul Fajardo, a grower in southwestern Nariño state, told <a href="http://colombiareports.com/severe-drought-threatens-colombias-prized-coffee-crops-farmers-say/">Colombia Reports</a>. "That would ruin farmers in this region."Along with protracted drought, coffee growers are now facing competition for labor, as demand <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-19/coffee-rots-as-farm-workers-quit-to-build-colombian-highways">for construction</a> workers, who are paid better than coffee harvesters, has grown; that demand is only expected to increase as public-works projects get underway.Coffee beans that go unharvested become susceptible to rot and pests, which could further drive down production and reduce the quality of beans that do reach the market.Water has, in recent years, had a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/latin-america-clean-water-and-elections-2015-5">dramatic effect</a> on Latin American politics; it now appears to be influencing the region's economic outlook, as well. "We farmers are in total despair," <a href="http://colombiareports.com/severe-drought-threatens-colombias-prized-coffee-crops-farmers-say/">said</a> Fajardo, who fears his harvest "is about to be lost." <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/farmers-are-growing-coffee-in-california-2015-7">California is defying nature by growing coffee beans </a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="lvbGgydjp5pTRjpUQEXIpLNnrDTwOC-K" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

El Nino-related weather conditions could endanger coffee crops around the world and drive up prices

NEW DELHI: Despite inflation level dipping consistently, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to maintain a status quo on key rates in its monetray policy review on Arpil 1. 
 
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan, who has made clear that his primary goal is to tame prices, may hold the repo rate at 8% citing inflationary expectations, according to an ET poll. There won't be any change in the repo rate, said 19 of 20 institutions polled by ET. 
 
The broad consensus is that the uncertainty of the election outcome, persistent global economic and geo-political concerns and the likelihood of an upward trend in the inflation trajectory will force the RBI to take a cautious stance. 
 
We take a look at four reasons why Raghuram Rajan may not tinker with key rates: 
 
1) Inflationary expectations: Rajan is living up to the anti-inflation tradition of the Chicago School. A committee headed by deputy governor Urjit Patel has suggested targeting consumer inflation at 4% in a two percentage point band, as part of an evolving monetary policy framework. Although this has not been adopted formally, Rajan has given enough signals that he's inclined to follow that trajectory. 
 
"Whatever level it comes down to, the path is to bring it down to 8% by the end of this year, and 6% by the end of the succeeding year," Rajan has said. 
 
Consumer price inflation, which has averaged about 10% for nearly three years, is showing signs of easing with increasing supplies and a lower increase in support prices. 
 
Retail inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, eased to a two-year low of 8.10% in February from 8.79% in January, having touched a high of 11.24% in November. Inflation based on the wholesale price index fell to a nine-month low of 4.68% in February on the back of a drop in food and fuel prices, having been at 5.05% in January. But data from Barclays shows inflationary expectation is running at 12%, the highest in recent memory. 
 
Sashi Krishnan, CIO at Birla Sun Life Insurance told ET Now, "I do not expect RBI to cut rates at this point of time because though inflation has come down from 8.6 to 8.1 and the trajectory is downwards, the concerns still remain." 
 
"But given the fact that a lot of the macro variables have come under control, especially the fact that our foreign exchange reserves are moving up and have been fairly comfortable, current account deficit is no longer a problem, RBI would be more neutral than hawkish," he added. 
 
"If the RBI intends to guide CPI (consumer price index) inflation down to less than 6% over the next couple of years, as per the recommendation of the (Urjit) Patel committee, more tightening will be needed," said Leif Eskesen, economist at HSBC. "Monetary policy is currently in neutral gear but eventually needs to venture into contractionary territory." 
 
2) Fears of El-Nino: Above average monsoon last year, came as a boon for the Indian farmers. They not only had a good Kharif crop but also had enough water back-up for rabi crops as well. 
 
However, the El Nino phenomenon may turn out to be a spoiler for Indian economy. Historically, average agricultural GDP growth has declined by 2-2.5 per cent, Y-o-Y during El Nino years. 
 
In fact, Rajan may warn that the price decline could easily be reversed if food prices resume their upward climb as rain and hail in some states and El Nino weather conditions crimp farm output in the coming quarters. 
 
SK Ghosh, chief economic advisor at SBI has said, "Inflation has come down due to the base effect." "There is a lot of damage due to hailstorm-like phenomena, which in turn will push up food prices. There is no possibility of rate cut before the December quarter." 
 
"The hailstorm is likely to result in an estimated crop failure of about Rs 12,000 crore (0.1% of the full year GDP) and this could reverse the recent downtrend in retail price inflation," said Jyotivardhan Jaipuria, managing director and head of research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BoA-ML), in a report earlier this month. 
 
Add El- Nino factor to it and we have a tough situation ahead. 
 
"While the next Government has many challenges to address, El Nino is perhaps the last thing that the economy needs now," said a CLSA report. According to the report, potential spike in food inflation due to a possible drought could worsen inflation and rate outlook. 
 
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3) Full budget/election outcome: Furthermore, monetary authorities may also wait for signals from the new government that will present a full budget once it takes office in May. How quickly rate cuts may begin will also depend a lot on how efficient the new government will be in managing its finances. 
 
"Once a new government comes, it will frame its fiscal policy," said Mohan Shenoy, head of treasury at Kotak Mahindra Bank. "Monetary policy will be shaped by the direction of new fiscal policy. Both policies have to go hand-in-hand." 
 
Hopes of a decisive government has led to more than $8.8 billion pouring into Indian markets this year. That could accelerate after May if a stable government takes charge. 
 
"Post June, I expect RBI to begin lowering rates assuming no uncertainties come up in the western world," said Keki Mistry, vice chairman and CEO at HDFC. Still, there's a possibility of the unexpected happening, "which may cause a spike in oil prices or some untoward event that one cannot foresee at this point in time like a bad monsoon." 
 
4) Global concerns: Although the continued tapering of bond purchases by the Federal Reserve is having little impact on India, international factors such as Ukraine, or a shakeup in the US markets could adversely affect the outlook on rates. 
 
(With inputs from Saikat Das, ET Bureau)

Four Reasons Why Raghuram Rajan May Not Tinker With Rates On April 1

The <keyword id="55209" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="80" keywordseo="Indian-Meteorological-Department">Indian Meteorological Department</keyword> (IMD) said the southwest monsoon had arrived in Kerala against the normal date of June 1. 
 
"The rainfall over Kerala has been fairly widespread to widespread for the last 48 hours. Out of the 14 rainfall monitoring stations for monsoon onset over Kerala, more than 70% of stations have reported rainfall higher than 2.5 mm for last consecutive two days," IMD said in its statement. 
 
IMD said monsoon has further advanced into entire south Arabian Sea, some parts of Central Arabian Sea, entire Lakshadweep area and Kerala, some parts of Coastal &amp; South Interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, remaining parts of southeast Bay of Bengal and some parts of central &amp; northeast Bay of Bengal. 
 As IMD as predicted a deficient monsoon this year, private weather forecaster <keyword id="6376779" type="COMPANY" weightage="80" keywordseo="Skymet">Skymet</keyword> rejected IMD's forecast of likely drought. 
 
Skymet predicted that there would be a good monsoon season this year as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon counters an El Nino weather event. 
 
This should dismiss concerns of farmers who have already been hit hard by unseasonal rains earlier this year. 
 
Skymet, which claims its predictions have been correct for the past three years, forecast rains at 102% of the long-term average over the June-September monsoon season, as against IMD's 88%. 
 
Skymet’s chief meteorologist, G.P. Sharma, said the El Nino threat remains, but the positive IOD effect could prove beneficial. 
 
Skymet said positive IOD creates a barrier in the eastern Indian Ocean and all the southwesterly winds blow towards the Indian sub-continent, causing rains there but leading to droughts in parts of Indonesia and Australia. 
Even Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has downplayed fears of a drought. 
Meanwhile, the Indian Government prepared on war footing to implement the MNREGA plans so that livelihood of farmer is not affected. 
 
(Image: Indiatimes)

Private weather forecaster Skymet rejects drought forecast in India

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">REUTERS/Saumya Khandelwal</div></div></div><ul><li>2017 was the second warmest year on record, just ahead of 2015 and behind 2016, according to NASA.</li><li>The five hottest years on record have all occurred since 2010.</li><li>The warming is directly attributable to human-caused greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide. </li></ul> Last year was the second warmest year on record since 1880, second only to 2016, NASA scientists said on Thursday.The global average temperature for 2017 was 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit higher than the average temperature from 1951 through 1980, according to the group of scientists led by Gavin Schmidt at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. 2017 was also the third year in a row in which global temperatures were at least 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit above late nineteenth-century levels. Last year's average temperature was slightly higher than that in 2015, Schmidt said on a call with reporters. Despite the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/cold-weather-bomb-east-coast-snow-record-lows-2018-1">US' recent bout of frigid weather</a> and snowstorms, the planet's overall temperature has risen about 2 degrees Fahrenheit during the last century, and that warming is directly attributable to the greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide that humans have pumped into the atmosphere. "Despite colder than average temperatures in any one part of the world, temperatures over the planet as a whole continue the rapid warming trend we've seen over the last 40 years," Schmidt said, adding, "Basically all the warming in the last 60 years is attributable to human activity. Carbon dioxide emissions are one component of that."<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Credits: NASA's Scientific Visualization StudioThis map shows Earth's average global temperature from 2013 to 2017, as compared to a baseline average from 1951 to 1980, according to an analysis by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Yellows, oranges, and reds show regions warmer than the baseline.</div></div></div>Temperatures in 2015 and 2016 were affected by an El Nino event, in which warmer Pacific Ocean currents cause warming across the globe, NASA said. If El Nino's effect were statistically removed from the record, 2017 would actually have been the warmest year. A separate, independent analysis from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration determined that 2017 was the third-warmest year in their record. The quibble is because NOAA uses a different method to measure temperatures in the planet's polar regions - which are warming faster than anywhere else - Deke Arndt, a climate scientist at NOAA, said on the call with reporters.Both analyses note the same long-term warming trend, however: The five warmest years on record have all taken place since 2010. Last year, scientists also observed massive declines in sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic. When sea ice levels decline, that can create a vicious cycle that increases the rate at which more ice melts."The absence of sea ice means less sunlight is reflected back to the surface, and that tends to add to the heating already underway," Arndt said.The warming planet is already causing wide-ranging problems for endangered species, like <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/green-sea-turtles-are-becoming-feminized-because-of-climate-change-2018-1">green sea turtles</a>, as well as residents of coastal cities.The US spent more money on <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/weather-disasters-damage-cost-record-306-billion-in-2017-2018-1">weather-related disasters</a> like <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/ventura-county-fire">wildfires</a> and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/photos-hurricane-maria-irma-jose-harvey-katia-franklin-damage-florida-puerto-rico-caribbean-2017-9">hurricanes</a> in 2017 than any other year, according to a recent analysis from NOAA. Such extreme events are only expected to get more frequent and severe as the Earth's average temperature continues to rise. <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/earth-500-years-climate-change-life-humans-2016-6">Here's what could happen to Earth over the next 500 years</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

2017 was the second warmest year ever recorded - behind only 2016

The <keyword id="26362" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government" source="Orion">government</keyword> has reduced the <keyword id="6357502" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="import-duty" source="Orion">import duty</keyword> on refined soybean and sunflower oils to 12.5 per cent from 17.5 per cent with effect from Thursday to boost the domestic availability and check prices, a finance ministry notification said. Usually, India imports 'crude' soybean and sunflower oils and not their 'refined' form. Yet, the government has reduced the duty on refined soybean and sunflower oils. With this reduction, the effective duty on refined edible oils stands at 13.7 per cent, including cess on social welfare. The effective duty on all major crude edible oils is 5.5 per cent. Commenting on this, Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) Executive Director B V Mehta said the move may have some temporary impact on market sentiments but unlikely to attract imports. "Basically, government wants to keep the prices of edible oils under check. Even with less duty difference between crude and refined soya and <keyword id="58302" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sunflower-oil" source="Orion">sunflower oil</keyword>s, chances of shipment of refined soya and sunflower <keyword id="6359072" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="oil" source="Orion">oil</keyword> may not be commercially viable but have some temporary sentiment impact on market," Mehta said in a statement. Currently, there are no import of refined soybean and sunflower oils. According to SEA, the delayed onset of monsoon in Kerala by a week led to delay in sowing. "The Met Department has forecast near normal monsoon, however El Nino is not ruled out completely and may spoil the chances of normal monsoon, which may impact kharif crop and domestic availability of vegetable oils in next oil year 2023-24," Mehta added. India relies on imports to fulfill its demand-supply gap in edible oils. It meets nearly 60 per cent of edible oil demand through imports. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/entertainment/news/sonam-kapoor-plans-to-return-to-bollywood-with-2-yrf-films/articleshow/101014785.cms">Sonam Kapoor plans to return to Bollywood with 2 YRF films</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/careers/news/automotive-digital-marketplace-truecar-lays-off-24-of-workforce/articleshow/101013596.cms">Automotive digital marketplace TrueCar lays off 24% of workforce</a>

Govt cuts import duty on refined soybean & sunflower oils to 12.5%

<keyword id="1895647" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-Governor-Raghuram-Rajan">RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan</keyword> spelled out his reasons for not slashing the repo rate and CRR. However, he kept the ball rolling in <keyword id="6391015" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Finance-Minister-Arun-Jaitley">Finance Minister Arun Jaitley</keyword>’s court, saying the <keyword id="6360189" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Budget">Union budget</keyword> will have to do the real reformatory easing. 
 
While announcing the bi-monthly policy, Rajan sounded off alarm bells, hinting that the growth trajectory will not see much momentum before FY17. As we have just begun with the year, this means that momentum in growth will be seen only by the end of two years. 
 
Rajan said the current pace of growth did not meet expectations over the medium term, adding the RBI was being ‘accommodative’. 
 
Here are few factors that RBI hinted at: 
 1. Rajan said the Union Budget, which will be announced on February 29, should announce structural reforms and keep a tight control on spending. He added that the government will have to announce measures to ensure that the <keyword id="22195" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Inflation">inflation</keyword> remains on the set path of 5% by the end of 2016-17. 
 2. Don’t expect any further cuts in tax slabs and more subsidies from the <keyword id="2783177" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Budget-2016">Budget 2016</keyword>. One of the primary ways in which the government can control its expenditures is by being wise about the pay panel recommendations. “How the government implements a planned 24 percent pay hike in salaries and pensions for some 10 million current and former government employees will also be key in determining the path of inflation,” said Rajan. 
 
3. The RBI is also hoping for good monsoons this year as this is also one of the key factors for strengthening growth. After two consecutive years of bad monsoons, Rajan said if the country receives good monsoon, it will increase trade and household incomes. However, an El Nino effect may be seen. 
 
4. While there are rounds of liquidity crunch in the banking system, Rajan said the central bank will use all methods possible to pump in money in the bank. Rajan ditched the perception of a liquidity crunch. The RBI governor has been pushing banks to clear their bad debts in order to have more money to loan, which will lead to propel investments and lead to clearing of stalled infrastructure projects. 
 
5. There has to be a revival in private investment for a higher growth trajectory and it is needed for the government to pay heed to the fiscal deficit. 
 
(Image: Indiatimes)

RBI’s Rajan is sounding off alarm bells for the economy asking the govt to announce a path-changing Budget 2016

Brace yourself for an extended summer season and scanty rainfall along with rise in prices of food items this year as the Australian Meteorological Department predicted on Tuesday that the tropical Pacific was in early stages of the El Nino weather phenomenon. 
 The bureau’s current observations state that India's south-west monsoon will be deficient and it has already been predicted by the <keyword id="6355166" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="India-Meteorological-Department">India Meteorological Department</keyword> in April, as per an Economic Times report. 
 
El Nino refers to the warming of Pacific waters and is seen as having a wide-ranging impact on global weather. 
 This comes as bad news for India as the <keyword id="390879" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="monsoon-season">monsoon season</keyword>, which runs from June to September in the country, is the main source of water for the agriculture sector. This will affect the <keyword id="2848024" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Agriculture-based-industries">agriculture-based industries</keyword> and the food industry. 
 
In the wake of poor rainfall last year and unseasonal rains and snowfall in recent months, India's revival plans and economic growth will also be hampered. 
 
According to the Australian weather office, the El Nino Southern Oscillation ( ENSO) indicators have shown a steady trend toward El Nino levels since the start of the year. The temperatures of sea surface in the tropical Pacific Ocean have also exceeded El Nino thresholds recently. 
 
Moreover, such changes are also supported by warmer-than-average waters below the surface which will worsen the weather condition. 
 
Trade winds have remained consistently weaker than average since the start of the year. "These indicators suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have started to couple and reinforce each other, indicating El Nino is likely to persist in the coming months," the Australian weather office said. 
 
International climate models surveyed by the bureau indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain above El Nino thresholds through the coming winter and at least into spring. 
 
(Image:Reuters)

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