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India is poised to remain the fastest-growing major economy in 2024-25, Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said in a press conference after the tabling of the <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> in the Parliament on Monday. The Economic Survey tabled today projected India to grow at 6.5-7.0 per cent in 2024-25. Global institutions, including <keyword id="19896779" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IMF" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="IMF" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="IMF">IMF</keyword>, OECD, World Bank, S&amp;P, ADB, and Fitch, have projected India to grow in a range of 6.6-7.2 per cent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest outlook, has raised India's growth projections for 2024 from 6.8 per cent earlier to 7 per cent, with the country maintaining the fastest-growing status in emerging markets and developing economies. According to official data of the Indian government, the country's GDP grew at an impressive 8.2 per cent during the financial year 2023-24. India's economy grew 7.2 per cent in 2022-23 and 8.7 per cent in 2021-22 respectively. Further, the CEA in his press conference projected that India's <keyword id="20089672" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="per-capita-income" source="keywords">per capita income</keyword> is expected to increase from around Rs 2 lakh in 2022-23 to Rs 14.9 lakh in 2046-47. Further, CEA said <keyword id="20751315" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="household-savings" source="keywords">household savings</keyword> of Indians in physical assets have been increasing over the past three financial years through 2023-24. The CEA, addressing the press conference, said household savings in physical assets rose from 8 per cent in 2020-21 to 12.9 per cent in 2022-23. "Households are not in distress, they are investing in <keyword id="20792385" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-assets" source="keywords">financial assets</keyword> that have done very well. Financial assets of households are not marked to market so households are doing quite well in the aggregate," he said. India needs both banks and capital markets to provide the required finances sourced from a sustained high level of household savings, according to the Survey. <keyword id="20385790" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Finance-Minister" source="keywords">Union Finance Minister</keyword> Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday tabled the economic survey in Parliament, a day ahead of the full Budget presentation for 2024-25. The Economic Survey document, prepared by the Economic Division of the Department of Economic Affairs in the Ministry of Finance and formulated under the supervision of the chief economic adviser, gives insights into the state of the economy and various indicators of 2023-24 (April-March) and some outlook for the current year. The Economy Survey document also gave some idea about the tone and texture of the actual Budget for 2024-25, to be presented on Tuesday. (ANI)

India to remain fastest growing major economy in 2024-25, says CEA Nageswaran

I've spent the past couple of years gently correcting the people in my life that, despite their frustrations with the economy, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/are-we-in-a-recession">we are not in a recession</a>. Yes, prices are higher, but workers' pay is, too — and the sticker shock <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hate-spending-consumers-economic-sentiment-retail-sales-inflation-gdp-growth-2024-4">has not stopped consumers from spending a ton</a>. Blue-collar workers in particular have seen solid gains, and as much as there's chatter about a white-collar recession, the unemployment rate for college-educated workers remains low.But lately I've had a harder time painting such a rosy picture. The economy's not bad, but the overall situation is increasingly frustrating. As much as the inflation rate has fallen, 2019 prices aren't coming back. The Federal Reserve is going to start to cut interest rates soon and deliver some relief, but if you're considering buying a new house or car, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-housing-market-mortgage-buying-car-interest-rates-new-jobs-2024-3">you're probably still better off waiting</a>. The same goes for switching jobs — given the state of the labor market, it's best to stay where you are, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hiring-slump-professional-white-collar-jobs-recession-high-salary-2024-4">especially for the white-collar crowd</a>.For months and months it's felt like the other shoe on the economy is about to drop. I mean, in October 2022, Bloomberg's economic model was saying there was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden">a 100% chance of a recession over the next year</a>. That recession didn't happen, but the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vibecession-recession-hiring-outlook-american-economic-sentiment-rising-prices-recovery-2022-8">vibecession</a> did. Now, economic indicators aren't flashing red, but they're not flashing green either. We're in wait-and-see mode."There's a little bit of collective breath-holding," said Allison Shrivastava, an associate economist at Indeed. "Are we going to stick this landing, or are things going to continue in a downward trend? We expected there to be a cooling labor market — that's kind of the goal — and it's always just, you know, how cool?"The economic uncertainty is exhausting, and it's being compounded by the coming election."We have a lot of consumers who are telling us they're reserving judgment about what's happening until the election is resolved," said Joanne Hsu, the director of consumer surveys at the University of Michigan. "They're saying there's just no way to tell.""It's so over" has become a bit of an annoying internet trope as of late. It signals a downward turn of events, things not going your way — the opposite of "we're so back," when things are on the upswing. That being said, when it comes to the labor market … <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-report-labor-market-hiring-layoffs-quits-recession-sahm-rule-2024-8">it is, in fact, so over</a>. The jobs boom the US was seeing in 2021 and 2022 is well in the past, and there are clear signs of slowing.The economy added 142,000 jobs in August, and the unemployment rate ticked down slightly, to 4.2%. That's an improvement over July's 4.3% unemployment rate, but overall, the jobs market in the US is cooling off. Job openings in July were back at 2021 levels. The rates of hires and quits ticked up for the month, but they're back at pre-pandemic levels, though layoffs remain low. What that means is that if you have a job, you're likely to be able to hold on to it, but if you want to move around or are unemployed and looking for work, you might be in for a tough time.Much of this is to be expected — part of the reason the Fed raised interest rates was to slow down the economy, including the labor market. It's not reasonable to expect the economy to add jobs at the clip it was in the immediate wake of the pandemic."If you imagine a labor market like a bathtub, the bathtub is full," said Dana Peterson, the chief economist at the Conference Board. "So you don't need to run the water, don't need to run the faucet hard anymore."Still, the end of a party is never particularly fun. Now, even just the knowledge that the labor market is on shakier ground is anxiety-inducing — average monthly job gains are dropping consistently, and there's no telling what will make that drop stop. Some of the story varies by sector — if you work in tech, it might be a trickier time to find a job than if you were looking for something in healthcare or construction. Some workers feel like they missed the boat on all the job hopping over the past couple of years, and now it seems like the opportunity to participate has passed. Despite the strong labor market, they're sending endless résumés into the ether without getting any bites, and they don't understand why. Jaime-Alexis Fowler, the founder of Empower Work, a nonprofit that provides a text hotline for workers, said she'd heard a lot of frustration from workers searching for good jobs and being unable to find them. That's led some of them to fall for scams and has fostered animosity among those who work in person but want to work from home."People were feeling there was just this dissonance between their direct experience and what they were hearing was happening with the economy," she said. "And so it felt like there was something wrong with them. 'I'm not hearing back.'"For a lot of people, the current environment just feels a little blech. There are so many unknowns that make it hard to figure out what's the right move.Do I buy the house now and pay a higher mortgage rate, or do I wait and risk home prices getting even higher six months from now? Do I try to leave this stupid job, or do I stick it out because at least maybe the higher-ups will feel a slight pang before laying me off? Do I hire someone new at my small business or just keep staffing as is? Is this the stock-market dip I should buy, or should I continue to hold out because The Big One is finally coming? Or maybe I should just buy and sell at random, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gambling-young-men-sports-betting-crypto-meme-stock-market-addiction-2024-4">because everything is kind of a casino anyway, right</a>?Hsu said consumer sentiment is better than it was at its mid-2022 low, but it's still below its historical average. There are also some serious disparities in how different groups view the economy."People in the lower part of the income distribution don't actually feel all that much better than they did two years ago," Hsu said, "whereas higher-income and wealthier people feel much, much better."Even if the labor market isn't as awesome for them, those at the higher end of the income distribution are enjoying the stock market's recent gains and the appreciation of their home values. Those on the lower end, on the other hand, aren't really benefiting from what's happening in the markets, and higher housing prices are making them poorer, because they're renters. Some economic trends that are positive in the long term aren't delivering instant effects. Michael Madowitz, the principal economist at the Roosevelt Institute, a progressive think tank, pointed out that worker productivity — an economic measure looking at how much output workers create in the hours they're on the job — is something that gets economic nerds excited, but not so much the workers doing the producing. "Productivity growth is a marathon," he said. "Vibes are a sprint."The uncertainty around the outcome of the 2024 election really does hang over everything. Hsu said consumers were incorporating who they expect to win the election into their views of the economy. If X candidate comes out ahead in November, some will say that things will be great, and others will say that things will be terrible; if Y comes out ahead, they'll flip. The race is very tight, adding to the uncertainty and unease around the economy. Even though the election won't immediately change the country's economic course, it will change how people feel about it."With interest rates falling and getting past the election, people probably will feel better," Peterson said. (As long as we don't have a 2020-esque situation where we don't know the outcome for days and one of the candidates refuses to accept the results.)Not to sound like a broken record here, but the economy is decent. The labor market is OK, if slipping a little. Consumer spending is strong, and incomes are higher than they were before the pandemic. GDP growth is probably slowing, but it doesn't seem like it will fall into recession territory anytime soon. There are reasons for concern — pandemic savings have dried up, and credit-card delinquencies are rising — but there's no need to declare disaster yet.Things are just kind of slowing down and stalling out, and after a few years of strong momentum, that's making people nervous. Even a slight deterioration is uncomfortable for everybody, and for some people, it can feel dire. We're stuck in limbo, and that limbo is just not a fun place to be.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/emily-stewart">Emily Stewart</a> is a senior correspondent at Business Insider, writing about business and the economy.

The agonizing uncertainty of America's so-so economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, way under the forecast of 106,000.</li><li>The unemployment rate remained at 4.1% as expected.</li></ul>The US economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, falling way short of the forecast of 106,000.The unemployment rate in October matched expectations and held steady at 4.1%.Economists and labor market watchers expected job growth to slow after the back-to-back natural disasters of Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton in late September and early October disrupted life in several states."October data from the household and establishment surveys are the first collected since Hurricanes Helene and Milton struck the United States," a news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday said. "These hurricanes caused severe damage in the southeast portion of the country."Labor strife also probably weakened October's job growth numbers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said before Friday's news release that around 44,000 hotel workers, Boeing workers, and others were on strike as data for the report was being gathered.Those two factors weighing on the headline job creation numbers mean the Federal Reserve will likely take this month's report with a grain of salt when deciding whether to pause or continue its interest rate cuts."The Federal Reserve will likely look through the noisy October jobs report and rely on the totality of labor market data which continues to point to a controlled downshift in job creation and labor supply absorption," EY senior economist Lydia Boussour said ahead of the report.The mixed results in the jobs report could complicate the Fed's interest rate plans into next year. The report is just one of many pieces of data Fed members will rely on when making their decision next week. Before the new data release, traders overwhelmingly thought the Fed would cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, which would be less than the previous 50-basis-point cut in September.The new jobs report is the last US employment report before the presidential election on November 5. An October survey from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnorc.org/projects/registered-voters-are-split-on-trusting-harris-or-trump-to-handle-economic-issues/">AP-NORC</a> found that 43% of registered voters "trust" Kamala Harris can do a better job handling jobs and unemployment, close to the 41% of registered voters that said Donald Trump.This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

The US added very few jobs in October after hurricanes and strikes shook the economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Unemployment claims have already climbed following Hurricane Helene.</li><li>Additional disruptions from Hurricane Milton complicate the data collection for October's jobs report.</li></ul>Hurricanes continue to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-helene-asheville-wcu-north-carolina-college-students-disruption-classes-2024-10">devastate communities</a> across the Southern US, and the fallout is already reflected in the latest economic data.As the election nears, it means Americans will have a murky picture of the economy, which consistently ranks as a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/issues-and-the-2024-election/">top issue for voters</a>.It started with initial jobless claims data released by the Labor Department on Thursday, which surged far higher than expected in the first week of October, rising to 258,000 — a 33,000 increase from the week prior. This surge is likely due in part to jobs being affected by Hurricane Helene in Southeastern states like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-helene-milton-tampa-florida-desantis-clean-disaster-dangerous-2024-10">Florida</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-helene-destroyed-asheville-genz-residents-rebuild-climate-safe-haven-2024-10">North Carolina</a>.Unemployment claims are a useful gauge of the labor market, as they are updated weekly and can offer an early sign of large-scale layoffs.The impacts of Hurricane Helene and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-landfall-florida-housing-market-insurance-fema-2024-10">Hurricane Milton</a>, the latter of which made landfall on Wednesday, will likely distort upcoming economic data, particularly the October jobs report set to come out just four days before election day.The monthly jobs report is always a closely watched measure of the economy, but especially now as recent months have shown it cooling off. To stimulate hiring, the Federal Reserve began cutting <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">interest rates in September</a>, and the jobs report will strongly inform its path forward."In terms of Hurricane Helene, it is difficult to get a concrete estimate of the potential impact on October employment," Dante DeAntonio, Moody's Analytics labor economist, told Business Insider in a statement. "Next week's jobless claims data will provide better insight into the potential magnitude, but I wouldn't be surprised if the storm subtracted at least 50,000 from headline employment given the wide geographic area of impact."With the election less than a month away, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blockbuster-jobs-report-kamala-harris-election-trump-inflation-economy-2024-10">the economy is a focal point for voters</a>, especially as consumers still hold largely negative views of the post-pandemic economic situation. Positive data is especially critical for Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden, as the economy has been a weak spot for the administration — the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment showed that while people were feeling more positive in September than in August, their economic views remained weak.<h2 id="42dd0eb4-851f-4507-a440-0543e54f480c">The timing of the disruptions from the hurricanes is key</h2>The Department of Labor will begin collecting data on Americans' employment statuses next week to inform the October jobs report. If people impacted by the hurricane are out of work and are continuing to experience disruptions to their businesses, the Bureau of Labor Statistics may mark them as unemployed.That means that the next jobs report, which comes out in November, could be abnormally weak, given that it will use data on job disruptions that occurred during a natural disaster. The household survey, which will be used to find October's unemployment rate and other labor-market figures, will cover respondents' employment situations from October 6 to 12, a Bureau of Labor Statistics spokesperson told BI in a statement. Similarly, the establishment survey, which provides the headline job creation numbers, covers the pay period that includes the 12th.The chaos from the storms could even affect data collection itself. Daniel Zhao, a lead economist at Glassdoor, told BI that "because Milton is hitting right when the reference week is for survey respondents, there are probably people who just can't respond to the survey because they're evacuated or they don't have access to the internet or power," adding that "October data will be particularly muddy and subject to more noise or greater revisions later down. "DeAntonio said that the ongoing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-strike-negotiations-union-leaders-break-down-after-two-days-2024-10">Boeing strike</a>, which involves around 33,000 workers and could affect the aircraft giant's suppliers, may also have a major impact on job growth."Put together, that means that headline job gains could be reduced by as much as 100,000 in October because of one-time factors," DeAntonio said about Hurricane Helene and the Boeing workers on strike.Despite the economy being at the forefront of voters' minds, an anomalously weak October jobs report might not be enough to shift how people will vote."I wouldn't expect these events to materially change how Americans view the economy before the election," DeAntonio said. "Strikes and severe storms routinely impact employment estimates, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics is typically proactive in communicating the magnitude of such events."The Bureau of Labor Statistics is aware of potential disruptions to the data. For example, it <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">noted</a> in its release last week Hurricane Francine, which hit Louisiana in early September, "had no discernible effect" on the employment data it collected."For severe weather conditions to reduce employment estimates, employees must be off work without pay for the entire pay period," a Bureau of Labor Statistics spokesperson told BI. "Employees who receive pay for any part of the pay period, even 1 hour, are counted in the payroll employment figures."Any effects from the hurricanes could lead to an October jobs report that shows a more pessimistic view of the economy than underlying conditions would suggest. Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, told BI because of temporary disruptions from the hurricanes and strikes, "we're going to see a lot of noise in October jobs data that will obscure the more fundamental trend everyone is interested in: is the labor market still getting gradually cooler and weaker as it did earlier this year."Issues with supply chains caused by the storms' devastation could increase inflation in the coming months, but that wouldn't start to be reflected in published data until mid-November when the new consumer price index data is released.

Hurricane season is set to scramble Americans' view of the economy before the election 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The post-election rally has led stock exposure to jump to its highest level in 11 years, BofA says.</li><li>The bank's fund manager survey says US stocks will continue to rally, and are set up to be the best performing asset in 2025.</li></ul>Donald Trump's election win has sparked a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">rally in US stocks</a>, pushing investors' equities exposure to jump to its highest level in 11 years.That bullishness is set to continue, too, according to a Bank of America survey of fund managers. The survey showed fund managers predict US equities will be the best-performing asset next year, fueled by the promise of pro-business policies under Trump.The survey showed a marked "surge in bulls," strategist Michael Hartnett said.Now, a net 28% of those investors expect the US economy to grow at a stronger pace in the next year. That's a stark shift from last month's survey, when 22% expected weaker growth.The survey participants, who manage a combined $503 billion in assets, say that apart from US stocks, global equities and gold will also perform well next year.Those who made their calls after the election also pointed overwhelmingly to the Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks as the best-performing index for next year.Small-cap stocks are expected to do well in a second Trump presidency due to their lack of international exposure, which will minimize risk from Trump's proposals for sweeping tariffs on imports. Those stocks have also seen inflows since the election, with the Russell 2000 surging almost 6% since Election Day. US stocks have extended their postelection rally into this week. Investors expect that Trump's proposed policies, like corporate tax cuts and less regulation, will be more business-friendly and boost earnings.The widespread rally has sparked massive inflows into Trump trades like <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-record-price-outlook-crypto-trump-election-digital-assets-altcoins-2024-11?_gl=1*3p5vvo*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTQxOTczNy4zOTIuMS4xNzMxNDE5NzQ0LjUzLjAuMA..">bitcoin</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-trillion-valuation-donald-trump-election-win-tsla-2024-11?_gl=1*jyqhh7*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTQxOTczNy4zOTIuMS4xNzMxNDE5NzcxLjI2LjAuMA..">Tesla</a>, as well as shares of banks that are expected to benefit from his policies.The S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have hit record highs since the election.

Stock exposure hits 11-year high as investors expect US equities to be the top-performing asset in 2025, BofA survey says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Polling suggests the economy is important to voters in this year's presidential election.</li><li>The economy is doing well across a wide variety of metrics.</li></ul><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-swing-states-election-2024-10">Election</a> Day is less than two weeks away, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-us-economy-would-look-like-with-trump-biden-presidency-2024-5">the economy</a> is top of mind for many Americans.Twenty-eight percent of likely voters in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/13/us/elections/times-siena-poll-likely-electorate-crosstabs.html">poll from The New York Times/Siena College</a> from September 29 to October 6 said the economy was the "most important" issue for their vote, which was the highest share among all issues. A <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/issues-and-the-2024-election/">Pew Research Center</a> survey from August 26 to September 2 found that among registered voters, 68% of Kamala Harris supporters and 93% of Donald Trump supporters said the economy is "very important" to their vote.Additionally, an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnorc.org/projects/registered-voters-are-split-on-trusting-harris-or-trump-to-handle-economic-issues/">Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research</a> poll conducted in October found registered voters were nearly split on who they thought would do a better job handling different areas of the economy, such as jobs and unemployment.The good news is that the economy is broadly doing pretty well these days."We've seen new highs for the stock market's major averages, falling inflation, the Federal Reserve shifting into easing mode and a job market close to the level associated with full employment," Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at the financial services company Bankrate, said in a recent <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bankrate.com/personal-finance/2024-election-and-the-economy-survey/?tpt=a#top-economic-issue">commentary</a>.While data suggests the US economy is robust, Americans may not agree. The index of <a target="_blank" href="http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/">current economic conditions</a> from the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers has stayed stubbornly low throughout the pandemic recovery.Kurt Reiman, cohead of ElectionWatch at UBS Global Wealth Management, told Business Insider that he doesn't think people feel "euphoric" about the economy. "Voters are reminded daily of the high price of goods and services — whether they're renewing their car or home insurance, or they're going to the grocery store," Reiman said.They're not completely off base. There are a few less-rosy data points out there, like rising long-term unemployment and a historically high level of federal debt.As people get ready to head to polling locations or vote by mail, here's how the US economy has been looking.<h2 id="b1568735-2b7f-4c59-a18d-2eedb9252f8b">The unemployment rate has been under 5% since September 2021</h2>After it rose to around 15% during the height of the early pandemic in April 2020, the unemployment rate has fallen to historically low rates. Even though the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% this past July — the highest rate since October 2021 — it has dropped since.While unemployment remains low, the average time unemployed workers were out of a job increased to 22.6 weeks in September. So, those out of work are spending more time looking for their next job.<h2 id="a377c75d-6f92-4f82-9cde-9b55e3445625">Job gains have cooled but remain strong</h2>The economy keeps adding jobs, but the labor market has slowed from its red-hot pandemic recovery.The cooler-but-strong job growth is one indication that the US has continued to avoid a recession — the last one being in 2020.<h2 id="3c79dc9c-b337-418f-8654-44a48ca9035f">There aren't as many job openings per unemployed person as a few years ago</h2>One key measure of the labor market has been turning against job seekers. The number of job openings per unemployed person rose to a record-high ratio in 2022 during the Great Resignation but has declined to 1.1 openings per unemployed person in August and looks more like pre-pandemic levels.It's not impossible to find a job, though; Hamrick said there is "still a reasonable chance that someone who's going to be a job seeker will have a measure of success" depending on their sector and location.<h2 id="b156886f-3057-4ae3-81ab-96249d28aa4c">The inflation rate has slowed dramatically</h2>Inflation has been mostly slowing down after spiking in 2021 and 2022 based on year-over-year increases in the consumer price index.While inflation has slowed, Hamrick said consumers feel constrained by still-high prices. However, Hamrick said, "Americans will continue to claw back some" lost buying power as long as inflation continues to settle down while the job market holds up.Wages have been catching up, and real wages, which are adjusted for inflation, grew 1.5% in September from a year ago.The Federal Reserve has targeted a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-outlook-data-points-to-soft-landing-no-recession-2024-9">soft landing</a> where inflation comes down without mass layoffs. So far, that seems to be happening. Additionally, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-decision-this-week-federal-reserve-powell-inflation-2024-9">Fed cut interest rates in September</a> — the first cut in four years. There's a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">high chance</a> it will decide to do a smaller cut in November, depending on how the data looks and other factors.<h2 id="3d0817c5-b03c-4e0a-a06d-bb0b9cf4edbf">Real disposable personal income per capita has been looking healthy</h2>Real disposable personal income per capita — a widely used measure of the money people have to spend or save — spiked in the early pandemic due to stimulus checks in 2020 and 2021 and the expanded child tax credits for the 2021 tax year.While real disposable personal income per capita cooled off as inflation accelerated in 2022, it has been gradually rising — and is above where it was before the pandemic and close to the pre-pandemic growth trend.<h2 id="28d1bb36-d16a-4262-837c-72d756c3510e">The S&amp;P 500 in 2024 has hit several all-time highs</h2>During 2024, the S&amp;P 500 has been historically high multiple times. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-6-charts-suggest-investors-should-proceed-with-caution-as-s-p-500-hits-47th-record-high-of-2024-197f7c0a">MarketWatch</a> reported it has hit 47 record highs this year. This index of large publicly traded US companies reflects corporate America doing quite well, and the rising figures may be good for people's retirement savings portfolios.Reiman chalks it up to strong consumer spending, slowing inflation, and lower interest rates leading to higher corporate profits and valuations.<h2 id="940327d3-930a-4b04-ae6e-e7a1a18f7e9a">Confidence among home builders is still low compared to recent years</h2>While the labor market is showing a lot of strength, the housing market is one area of the economy where there are some concerns. More single-family builders are feeling better about housing than a few months ago but are falling short of the confidence seen a couple of years ago. That's based on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which tracks the health of the single-family housing market.The index, based on what single-family builders surveyed reported, was a not-too-confident reading of 43 out of 100 in October.<h2 id="5596c1a8-aaad-4fe9-8a2a-12db5abc4c25">Federal public debt as a share of GDP is elevated</h2>Reiman said the Biden administration will be "handing off an economy with higher levels of debt than when taking office." Federal debt is high compared to GDP, even looking beyond the spike of the debt as a share of GDP during the pandemic.While federal debt as a share of GDP was slightly above 100% before the pandemic, recent figures are much higher than in the past. Federal debt was 120% of GDP in the second quarter of this year. In the long run, a high debt-to-GDP ratio may lead to expensive interest costs and future tax hikes or spending cuts.

The economy is a priority for Americans as they head to the polls. Here's what's really going on behind the numbers.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's policies could leave the US economy with two major challenges, Paul Krugman said.</li><li>Krugman pointed to Trump's economic plan, which economists have described as inflationary. </li></ul>The US could be in for twin shocks if Trump becomes president for a second time, Nobel economist Paul Krugman said.The Nobel economist pointed in particular to the former president's plan to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-trade-tax-proposal-inflation-interest-rates-outlooks-predictions-2024-7">raise tariffs on virtually all imported goods</a>, as well as his plan to carry out the "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-immigration-jobs-arizona-economy-mass-deportation-employment-wages-2024-10">largest deportation in the history of our country</a>." Those two policies could have big consequences for the US, Krugman said. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-trump-harris-economy-inflation-stock-market-volatility-risk-orlik-2024-10">Trump's tariff plan</a> — which includes up to 20% tariffs on all imports, and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods — is largely expected to raise prices, with most of the burden falling on the bottom 80% of Americans, according to an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/can-trump-replace-income-taxes-tariffs">analysis</a> from the Peterson Institute for International Economics.Trump's general economic plan is also widely thought to be more inflationary than Harris's. A <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/022bb11b-c340-4059-b9b7-30481a02174c">survey</a> conducted by the Financial Times and the University of Chicago showed that 70% of polled economists believed Trump's economic plan would put more upward pressure on prices than Harris's, Krugman noted."The tariff issue is enormous. We're talking about a radical break not just with recent economic policy, but a radical break with 90 years of US support for ... increased trade. We're talking about an inflationary shock that is bigger than almost anything else that you could do through federal policy," Krugman said.Experts have also taken issue with Trump's plans to ramp up deportation. A one-time operation to remove the 13 million undocumented immigrants living in the US would cost at least $315 billion, with the total cost over the next decade likely mounting to $968 billion, according to an analysis from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/mass-deportation">American Immigration Council</a>.Previously, Krugman also made the case that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/immigration-jobs-economic-impact-inflation-job-market-wages-paul-krugman-2024-7">immigration provides a huge boost</a> to the economy and the job market. That's because immigrant workers add to the supply of labor, help raise wage growth, and possibly even help keep a lid on inflation, he wrote in an op-ed for the New York Times."So the tariff thing, and when you combine that again with mass deportation, those are really, really big negative shocks to the economy," he added.That differs from the view some Americans have, most of whom rate Trump over Harris on economic issues. In a recent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-leads-harris-wsj-poll-779f8516">Wall Street Journal poll</a>, over 50% of surveyed voters said Trump was "best able to handle" the economy, compared to around 40% of voters who said Harris was more able."Different polls are giving you different stories here," Krugman said. "The economists, both academic and business economists, are overwhelmingly of the opinion that Trump will be much worse for the economy, especially on inflation."The economy remains on strong footing, with inflation having cooled dramatically from its highs and edging closer to the Fed's 2% price target. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/">One-year inflation expectations</a> were 3%, according to the New York Fed's latest survey of consumer expectations.

The US economy is in for a double shock if Trump is elected president, Nobel economist Paul Krugman says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Consumer confidence plummeted in September, marking the largest drop since August 2021.</li><li>The Conference Board's data shows it's about the job market, which has slowed down in recent months.</li></ul>It's official: The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-report-labor-market-hiring-layoffs-quits-recession-sahm-rule-2024-8">labor market</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/soft-landing-economy-us-on-track-data-cooling-interest-rates-2024-6">vibes</a> are not great.Consumer confidence plummeted in September, according to the Conference Board's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence">latest update</a>. It's the largest tumble in sentiment since August 2021 — and workers' <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-xer-cant-find-job-unemployment-degree-useless-hiring-remote-2024-9">experiences</a> with and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/applied-hundreds-jobs-struggling-get-hired-bridge-job-2024-6">expectations</a> for the labor market are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/finding-job-awful-right-now-drop-in-openings-tough-search-2024-9">partially to blame</a>.It's a new phase of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vibecession-recession-hiring-outlook-american-economic-sentiment-rising-prices-recovery-2022-8">vibecession</a>, as concerns about the economy shift from inflation to jobs. A weaker jobs market — although one that's still <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-rate-job-growth-interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-recession-2024-9">historically strong</a> — is warping Americans' beliefs about the economy. When the Federal Reserve <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cut-explained-inflation-labor-market-conditions-outlook-recession-2024-9">cut interest rates</a> for the first time in four years last Wednesday, Chair Jerome Powell pointed out the sea change: "As inflation has declined and the labor market has cooled, the upside risks to inflation have diminished and the downside risks to employment have increased."While consumers don't anticipate a looming recession, they're still feeling bad about their job prospects. You might be able to chalk some of that up to the roller coaster of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/white-collar-jobs-remote-office-workers-cant-get-hired-2024-9">white-collar job market</a>: In 2021, money was free to borrow and firms scrambled to outbid each other, meaning Americans could relatively easily switch jobs and land raises.However, the job market has cooled. Year-over-year, employment has gone down in the information sector, which encompasses several aspects of the technology industry, as some firms conduct layoffs and many slow hiring.Job seekers can feel the difference. According to the Conference Board, the share of consumers saying jobs were plentiful fell from August, tumbling from 32.7% to 30.9%. At the same time, 18.3% of the surveyed consumers said jobs were hard to get, an increase from 16.8% in August. The "persistent drop" in that measure is a "clear sign that the labor market is not nearly as tight as it once was," Wells Fargo economists Shannon Seery Grein and Jeremiah Kohl wrote in a <a target="_blank" href="https://wellsfargo.bluematrix.com/links2/html/87ad6e82-1582-4626-a5e9-5c3bbd8432f7">September 24 note</a>.That deterioration likely reflects consumers' "concerns about the labor market and reactions to fewer hours, slower payroll increases, fewer job openings—even if the labor market remains quite healthy, with low unemployment, few layoffs and elevated wages," Dana M. Peterson, the Conference Board's chief economist, said in a statement.Consumers also anticipate more gloominess in the months ahead, according to the Conference Board; 13% expect that their incomes will decrease in the next six months — higher than the 11.7% who said the same in August.That consumer confidence data comes as more Americans are looking for jobs. The July iteration of the New York Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Expectations <a target="_blank" href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/labor#/experiences-job-search1">found</a> that the percentage of Americans who have looked for a job over the past four weeks had reached the highest level since March 2014.Meanwhile, Americans have been feeling less confident about their ability to find a job should they lose theirs today, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/jobfind-1">Survey of Consumer Expectations</a>, with their mean probability of finding a new role tumbling since early 2023.That makes sense when taking potential opportunities into account. Per the latest Jobs Opening and Labor Turnover Survey, there were 7.7 million job openings in July 2024 — marking a decrease of 1.1 million openings from the previous year. In July 2023, the information section had 158,000 jobs open; that number plummeted to 113,000 in July 2024.It's not all bad news (and vibes), though. The Federal Reserve finally <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">cut rates</a>, which could loosen up hiring — and make it cheaper for consumers to pay off their credit cards or land a lower mortgage rate. And workers' investments might at least be chugging along as the stock market <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-dow-record-high-rate-cut-hopes-rise-2024-9">reaches record highs</a>. Even so, though, it'll take a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-how-will-they-impact-me-lag-inflation-2024-9">little while</a> for new monetary policy to trickle into daily life and the labor market."This is a labor market where if you have a job you like, you're in a pretty good position," Julia Pollak, the chief economist at ZipRecruiter, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/white-collar-jobs-remote-office-workers-cant-get-hired-2024-9">previously told BI</a>. "If you don't have a job, if you're a new grad, finding a job is actually unusually difficult — especially in the private sector outside of healthcare."Are you having trouble finding a job, or is the job market making you feel bad? Contact this reporter at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:jkaplan@businessinsider.com">jkaplan@businessinsider.com</a>.

There's a new reason people feel bad about the economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The economy is sending a signal for investors to flock to get defensive, Ned Davis Research said.</li><li>M2 money supply is shrinking, an indicator that's typically favored defensive stocks, strategists said.</li></ul>The economy has been flashing a warning sign for more than a year — and it's telling investors that they should be paying more attention to a particular area of the stock market, according to Ned Davis Research.Strategists at the firm pointed to the contraction in the money supply, a measure of how much money is flowing around in markets and the economy.The economy's stock of M2, one class of the money supply, has been shrinking in real terms since the start of 2022. Historically, that signal has preceded the start of a recession, and has typically indicated an environment in which defensive stocks outperform cyclical stocks, the firm wrote in a report.The M2 money supply has been distorted since the early days of the pandemic, the firm said. In 2020 and 2021, the Fed grew its balance sheet, which added to the money supply. But the central banks has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/federal-reserve-balance-sheet-inflation-rate-hike-monetary-policy-crash-2022-11">trimming their balance sheet</a> since it kicked off its fight against inflation, reducing some of the excess liquidity in markets."Stocks have generally performed better when real M2 money supply is rising. Similarly, sector leadership has tended to be more cyclical when y/y growth has been at high levels," the report said. "While the growth rate has been moved higher in 2024, it remains in contraction territory, at levels supporting <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-investing-advice-inflation-april-cpi-fed-morgan-stanley-2024-5">defensive stock leadership</a>."<div type="image" title="Graph showing relationship between money supply and defensive stocks" height="886" width="1042" msid="114992210" hostid="261" sizebytes="68348"></div>That suggests investors should be heading into sectors like utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare, with the latter two sectors being <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/investors-consumer-staples-economic-slowdown-defensive-stocks-recession-stock-market-2024-9">the best-performing</a> when the M2 money supply is running below its long-term average, the strategists added.Other forecasters on Wall Street have pointed to the contraction in the money supply as a potential omen for the economy. Steve Hanke, a Johns Hopkins economist, recently predicted a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-hard-landing-economy-inflation-job-market-signal-slowdown-2024-8">recession by early 2025</a>, pointing to the contraction in M2 as one of the warning signs.Still, the consensus on Wall Street is that the US economy looks to be on solid footing, with GDP expanding in the third quarter even as inflation continued to cool. Economists see the odds of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/economic-indicator-survey/">recession in the next year at just 33%</a>, according to a third-quarter survey conducted by Bankrate.

A warning signal in the economy is telling investors they should load up on defensive stocks, research firm says

Corporate <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword> reported the strongest <keyword id="6357342" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="hiring" source="Orion">hiring</keyword> sentiments globally for the next three months, with 37 per cent of employers planning to increase their staff strength as businesses are bullish about the country's economic position, a survey said on Tuesday. According to the ManpowerGroup <keyword id="6355127" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="employment" source="Orion">Employment</keyword> <keyword id="20206852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="outlook" source="keywords">Outlook</keyword> Survey Q4, 2024, of nearly 3,150 employers across sectors and regions, the <keyword id="20449001" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="net-employment-outlook" source="keywords">Net Employment Outlook</keyword> in India is the strongest worldwide at 37 per cent, followed by Costa Rica (36 per cent) and the US (34 per cent) in the second and third place respectively. The Net Employment Outlook (NEO) is calculated by subtracting the percentage of employers who anticipate reductions to staffing levels from those who plan to hire. The India employment outlook for Q4 (October-December) stood at 37 per cent, up 7 per cent from Q3 2024, and unchanged when compared with the same time last year. "The hiring intention of employers signifies the positive outlook in the country's economic position that has been reinforced by exports as a result of multilateral foreign policies and large-scale infrastructure development. Coupled with this, is our demographic advantage that is expected to boost our competitiveness in the global market," said <keyword id="20933727" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sandeep-gulati" source="keywords">Sandeep Gulati</keyword>, Managing Director, <keyword id="20841782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="manpowergroup-india" source="keywords">ManpowerGroup India</keyword> and Middle East. According to the survey, employers across all sectors report net positive hiring intentions with the financial and real estate industry having the strongest outlook of 47 per cent, followed by information technology (46 per cent), industrials and materials (36 per cent) and consumer goods and services (35 per cent). The least optimistic prospects were witnessed in the communication services (28 per cent). The survey further noted that the Northern region of India continues to dominate the job demand with an outlook of 41 per cent followed by the West (39 per cent). Gulati further noted that "India is expected to focus on its high domestic consumption, economy-booster government schemes, increasing demand for outsourcing services and manufacturing boom. "With increased focus on skill development to meet market demands, India may be able to reduce unemployment and fasten the pace of economic development by creating a more capable and adaptable workforce that meets the needs of the emerging industries." Hiring managers across the Asia-Pacific countries anticipate the second strongest regional Outlook at 27 per cent, an increase of 4 per cent from the previous quarter but decreased when compared to the same time last year. India, Singapore, and China continue to report the strongest employment outlooks in the region. The most cautious employment outlooks were reported by employers in Hong Kong (8 per cent). Survey responses were collected from July 1-31, 2024, and 40,340 employers across 42 countries were asked about their fourth-quarter hiring intentions.

Indian employers most bullish globally on Oct-Dec quarter hiring: survey

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will play a pivotal role in the upcoming general election.</li><li>The trio of blue wall states offer promise to Vice President Harris and former President Trump.</li></ul>As Vice President Kamala Harris eyes an electoral path that offers the best opportunity for victory, the "blue wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are front and center for Democrats.It was in these three states where Donald Trump's economic message broke through in 2016, with the Republican making inroads with union members, older voters, and independents. And that message was enough to throw former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton off course — in states where most Democrats had expected her to win.Harris is looking to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-hillary-clinton-wisconsin-rally-dnc-message-2024-8">avoid a repeat</a> of her party's mistakes.After the vice president launched her campaign in July, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wisconsin-kamala-harris-trump-presidential-swing-state-2024-7">one of her first major appearances</a> was in West Allis, Wis., a suburb of Milwaukee. She's worked to rally union workers — a key voting bloc — around her campaign. And Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has added a touch of the Midwest to the Democratic ticket.But will it be enough?The race between Harris and Trump remains very close in the swing states, with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-us-economy-would-look-like-with-trump-biden-presidency-2024-5">both candidates jostling for support</a> among voters by promoting their plans to tackle inflation, promote energy production, strengthen manufacturing, and build more housing.Here's a look at the current state of play in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where voters are poised to determine the next occupant of the White House.<h2 id="79c44346-088c-4215-9843-4a15f5f53dd3">Wisconsin is as competitive as ever</h2>In 2016, Clinton lost Wisconsin by less than one percentage point. And four years ago, President Joe Biden narrowly won the state by roughly 20,000 votes out of nearly 3.3 million ballots cast.Given the closeness of previous presidential races, Harris has been a frequent presence in the state.In August, Harris campaigned in Eau Claire and Milwaukee. In September, she stumped for votes in Madison. And in early October, she <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/03/kamala-harris-campaigns-in-ripon-wisconsin-liz-cheney-today-live-updates-oct-3-2024/75495763007/">campaigned</a> in Ripon — the birthplace of the Republican Party — alongside former Wyoming GOP Rep. Liz Cheney.Harris' visits have been targeted at key groups, particularly base Democratic voters, women, independents, union members, and disaffected Republicans.And the economy is at the top of mind for voters.Harris has leaned into the Biden administration's work to boost jobs in the manufacturing sector. Her campaign has touted the CHIPS and Science Act, which the administration pushed for to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chips-act-bill-to-boost-us-chipmaking-competition-with-china-2022-7">jumpstart semiconductor manufacturing</a> in the US. And she's been vocal about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-economy-proposal-25k-first-time-homebuyers-down-payent-2024-8">her plan</a> to provide $25,000 in down-payment assistance to first-time and first-generation homebuyers, a proposal that has real appeal among Gen Zers and millennials who've been priced out of many housing markets.At this juncture, the race in Wisconsin remains highly competitive.<div type="image" title="Donald Trump speaks in Detroit." height="2168" width="3000" msid="114188643" hostid="261" sizebytes="232084"></div>The latest <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/MLSP82ToplinesLV.html">Marquette University Law School poll</a> showed Harris leading Trump by a four-point margin (52% to 48%) among likely voters.Meanwhile, a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3913">Quinnipiac University poll</a> showed Trump ahead of Harris 48% to 46% among likely Wisconsin voters. In that survey, voters favored Trump over Harris by nine points (53% to 44%) when asked which candidate would be better on economic issues.<h2 id="f525ade4-922d-4b54-ba19-54ed292058b1">The fight for union members in Michigan</h2>For decades, labor unions have largely been viewed as reliably Democratic. But there are caveats to this dynamic.Leaders in unions like the AFL-CIO have largely backed the Democratic Party. And their ties to Biden have been an enduring part of the administration's work to address issues regarding prevailing wages and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.smart-union.org/biden-harris-administration-finalizes-executive-order-requiring-plas-on-large-federal-projects/">project labor agreements</a>.But among the rank and file, support for Democrats isn't a given.In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Trump in 2016 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-won-key-union-workers-in-2016-will-scalia-as-labor-secretary-change-that-for-2020">successfully peeled off</a> blocs of union workers. Some of them switched to Biden in 2020, which allowed the president to flip all three states back into the Democratic column that year.However, some of these voters remain undecided about Harris, who lacks the sort of relationship that Biden had cultivated with working-class voters in these states. And Trump's economic pitch — where he's reiterated his desire to revive the manufacturing sector despite Harris' work on the issue alongside Biden — has been an effective draw for some members.Peter Loge, an associate professor and the director of the School of Media and Public Affairs at George Washington University, told Business Insider that another reason for Trump's inroads with union workers is his strong standing with male voters."A lot of unions are male dominated and Trump is doing very well among men," he said. "There are simply fewer women in a lot of those unions."But Loge also pointed to a newly-released <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2024-state-polls-mixed-movement-across-swing-states-shows-dead-heat/">Emerson College poll</a>, which showed that Harris' union support varied by state. In the survey, Harris had a 26-point lead with Wisconsin union households and a ten-point edge with Michigan union households, but she trailed Trump by ten points with this group in Pennsylvania.This year, the Teamsters declined to endorse Harris or Trump, which marked the first time since 1996 that it had not issued a presidential endorsement. (Several local Teamsters unions <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/aoc-teamsters-union-endorsement-harris-trump-presidential-race-2024-9">announced their support</a> for Harris.)<div type="image" title="Shawn Fain speaks at a Kamala Harris rally in Flint, Michigan." height="5073" width="7610" msid="114188640" hostid="261" sizebytes="2440408"></div>In Michigan, the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) has become a significant issue in the presidential contest, and particularly in the state's marquee US Senate race between Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers.Trump has accused Harris of seeking to implement an EV mandate, which she has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/harris-hits-back-at-trump-on-ev-mandate-claims/">vehemently denied</a>."I will never tell you what kind of car you have to drive," Harris told attendees at a Flint, Mich., campaign event earlier this month. "But here's what I will do: I will invest in communities like Flint, which helped build the auto industry and the UAW."Shawn Fain, the United Auto Workers president, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/2024/10/10/uaw-fain-trump-ev-investments/75607463007/">told reporters</a> on Thursday that the repeal of electric vehicle investments — which Trump has floated — would result in lost jobs."It's factories all over the United States, and it's supply chain factories all over the United States that are being put in place now," Fain said. "So you're talking hundreds of thousands of jobs that Donald Trump is just writing off."For much of September, Harris boasted polling leads in the state. But Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Harris ally, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/whitmer-harris-michigan-polls-presidential-election-democrats-trump-2024-9">argued at the time</a> that the vice president didn't have a sizable advantage in the state.David Dulio, a professor of political science and the director of the Center for Civic Engagement at Oakland University, told BI that Harris' performance in Michigan has so far been "solid.""Harris hasn't done anything to grasp control and make it a done deal in Michigan," he said. "And she also hasn't done anything to sort of lose it, and I think that's reflected in the polls, where every one of them is within the margin of error."The latest <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/09/28/us/elections/times-siena-michigan-crosstabs.html">New York Times/Siena College poll</a> had Harris ahead of Trump by one point (48% to 47%) among likely Michigan voters. But <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3913">Quinnipiac's newest poll</a> gave Trump a four-point advantage (51% to 47%) among likely voters in the state, a reversal from last month, when Harris led by five points (50% to 45%).In the Quinnipiac poll, Michigan voters gave Trump an eight-point edge (53% to 45%) on the economy. But in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/kamala-harris-final-push-economy-donald-trump-polling-rcna174277">recent polls</a>, Harris has made up considerable ground on the issue — a sign that she's found success in forging some separation from Biden.<div type="image" title="Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania." height="4751" width="7126" msid="114188641" hostid="261" sizebytes="558252"></div>It's a shift that could also boost Harris in Pennsylvania, which is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-pennsylvania-presidential-debate-philadelphia-fracking-abortion-2024-9">a critical state</a> for her campaign. Biden won the state narrowly in 2020, besting Trump by one percentage point.From Philadelphia and Pittsburgh to Johnstown and Wilkes-Barre, Harris is aiming to bring together a coalition of union workers, suburbanites, young people, women, and minority voters who fueled Biden's victory four years ago.Harris has dismissed Trump's attacks on her energy record, as she's firmly said she wouldn't ban fracking in the state. And she's aiming to win over voters — especially union workers — in smaller cities where Trump found success in 2016.The latest Quinnipiac poll gave Harris a 49% to 46% advantage over Trump among likely Pennsylvania voters.But when it came to economic matters, Pennsylvania voters favored Trump over Harris by only two points (49% to 47%), another sign that voters have warmed up to some of her plans.

The blue wall battlegrounds will be won or lost on the economy. Here's where Harris stands in these critical states.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Kamala Harris has a vision of an 'Opportunity Economy' for America's middle class.</li><li>Her plan includes tax cuts for families and small businesses and going after price-gouging.</li></ul>Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-cuban-kamala-harris-only-candidate-in-founder-mode-2024-9">Kamala Harris</a> says she has a plan for America's middle class— building an "Opportunity Economy" to help them succeed.The term appeared on Harris' campaign website on Sunday evening, accompanying a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://kamalaharris.com/issues/">policy platform</a> addressing issues like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-abortion-presidential-debate-women-reproductive-rights-2024-9">abortion</a>, crime, healthcare, housing, and national security."Vice President Harris grew up in a middle class home as the daughter of a working mom. She believes that when the middle class is strong, America is strong," the Harris campaign wrote in a section titled "Build an Opportunity Economy and Lower Costs for Families.""That's why as President, Kamala Harris will create an Opportunity Economy where everyone has a chance to compete and a chance to succeed — whether they live in a rural area, small town, or big city."Harris <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/16/kamala-harris-economy">first introduced the concept</a> in North Carolina last month, reiterated it in her convention acceptance speech, and mentioned it again during <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/streaming/how-to-watch-presidential-debate-trump-harris-september-2024">her first presidential debate </a>with former President Donald Trump on Tuesday night."I believe in the ambition, the aspirations, the dreams of the American people," Harris said at the debate, "and that is why I imagine and have actually a plan to build what I call an 'Opportunity Economy.'"But just what exactly is Harris looking to do when she says she's going to build up the middle class through her "Opportunity Economy" agenda?<h2 id="b2d7f1f8-cd03-46ab-a91d-2a1a68192079">A mixture of tax cuts for parents and small businesses</h2>Like Trump, Harris is calling for tax cuts as well, though hers are primarily focused on families and small businesses."We know that young families need support to raise their children, and I intend on extending a tax cut for those families of $6,000, which is the largest child tax credit that we have given in a long time," Harris said on Tuesday night.She said this would be so that young families could afford to buy a crib, a car seat, and clothes for their young children.The Biden administration made a similar expansion to the child tax credit in 2021 under the American Rescue Plan.Instead of the usual $2,000 tax credit, parents received a tax credit of $3,600 per child under the age of six and $3,000 for older children.That is in addition to the tax relief she hopes to give to small businesses."I love our small businesses. My plan is to give a<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-small-businesses-tax-breaks-cut-red-tape-2024-9"> $50,000 tax deduction</a> to start-up small businesses, knowing they are part of the backbone of America's economy," Harris said during the debate.That is a ten-fold increase of the current startup expense tax deduction new businesses can claim.During <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-presidential-debate-takeaways-2024-9">the debate,</a> Harris accused Trump of only wanting to offer tax breaks to the richest people, while Trump countered by saying Harris lacked a detailed plan.Despite their disagreements, both candidates agree on a proposal to eliminate federal taxes on tips, while Harris has said she would want to set capital gains and corporate taxes at 28% and has pledged to prevent tax hikes on people making less than $400,000.<h2 id="b2807e73-d92b-456c-bbdc-b15f36259fa3">A 'path to the middle class' via homeownership</h2>During the debate, Harris raised the issue of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-down-payment-assistance-plan-25000-housing-crisis-affordability-zillow-2024-8">housing supply and affordability</a>, later using the topic to draw a wedge between her upbringing and Trump's background."I grew up a middle-class kid raised by a hard-working mother who worked and saved and was able to buy our first home when I was a teenager," Harris said.She continued: "The values I bring to the importance of homeownership — knowing not everybody got handed $400 million on a silver platter and then filed for bankruptcy six times — is a value that I bring to my work."Harris said she hopes to work with the private sector and homebuilders to construct 3 million more homes by the end of her first term as part of an effort to end the nation's housing supply crisis.Her campaign also says Harris would cut red tape to speed up housebuilding, penalize firms that hoard available homes, and sign legislation to outlaw price fixing by corporate landlords.In addition, Harris said during the debate that her administration would seek to provide financial support to first-time homebuyers. "I have a plan that is about allowing people to be able to pursue what has been fleeting in terms of the American dream by offering help with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-down-payment-assistance-plan-25000-housing-crisis-affordability-zillow-2024-8">$25,000 down payment assistance</a> for first-time homebuyers,' Harris said on Tuesday.<h2 id="c882ea3a-5afd-4a7b-9a92-6141945dc39f">Going after price-gouging</h2>Harris has repeatedly pledged to combat anti-competitive practices, specifically targeting price-gouging. Price gouging, which she did not mention in the debates, occurs when companies significantly raise prices above production and investment costs, often due to a lack of competition.In the debate, however, she said her administration would focus on lowering the prices of groceries and medicine.She highlighted the Biden administration's success in securing a $35-per-month cap for seniors with diabetes on their insulin spending, as well as a cap on the cost of prescription medication for seniors at $2,000 a year. The Harris campaign says her administration would want to go "toe to toe with Big Pharma" to negotiate <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cuban-lauding-harris-joining-fight-to-lower-drug-prices-2024-9">lower prescription drug prices.</a><h2 id="d8128593-d10e-4b95-a913-edf9c606d6f2">What do experts make of the plan?</h2><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-added-policy-website-before-trump-debate-venture-capital-startups-2024-9">Business Insider's Alice Tecotzky</a> noted that Harris' policy page is sparse on many specifics, though it does reference venture capital multiple times, suggesting an effort to court the business tech vote.Last month, a group of <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-billionaires-investors-kamala-harris-mark-cuban-reid-hoffman-2024-8">powerful venture capitalists</a> came together to pledge their support, and, more recently, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/murdoch-cuban-corporate-executives-silicon-valley-wall-street-endorse-harris-2024-9">dozens of prominent Wall Street and tech executives signed a letter</a> endorsing Harris.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/goldman-sachs-sees-biggest-boost-us-economy-harris-win-2024-09-04/">Goldman Sachs has predicted</a> that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-political-contributions-by-name-for-trump-vs-harris-2024-8">Harris' plans</a> would likely boost the US economy's growth, whereas economic output would likely take a hit under Trump if he wins in November.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.moodys.com/web/en/us/site-assets/assessing-the-macroeconomic-consequences-of-harris-vs-trump.pdf">And, according to Moody's Analytics</a>, an economic research company, a Harris win could lead to economic growth, with inflation moderating, while a Trump sweep could lead to higher inflation and weaker economic growth.But despite these <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-election-investing-strategy-donald-trump-kamala-harris-2024-9">predictions</a>, voters aren't necessarily convinced.In a recent nationwide <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/09/08/us/politics/times-siena-poll-toplines.html">New York Times/Siena College poll,</a> which surveyed 1,695 registered voters from September 3 to 6, 56% responded that they trusted Trump to do a better job on the economy than Harris.

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