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Above-normal rainfall is expected during the 2024 southwest <keyword id="6358301" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon" source="Orion">monsoon</keyword> season over most parts of <keyword id="19897710" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="south-Asia" source="keywords">south Asia</keyword>, the South Asian <keyword id="21481676" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-outlook" source="keywords">Climate Outlook</keyword> Forum said on Tuesday. The forecast follows the prediction of above-normal rain in the monsoon season in <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword> on the back of favourable <keyword id="20146476" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="La-Nina" source="keywords">La Nina</keyword> conditions, expected to set in by August-September. <br /><br />"Above normal rainfall is most likely during the 2024 southwest monsoon season (June-September) over most parts of south Asia, except some areas over northern, eastern, and northeastern parts of the region, where below-normal rainfall is most likely," the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) said. <br /><br />Above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures are predicted over most parts of south Asia during the season, except a few areas over the southeastern part of the region where normal temperatures are most likely. <br /><br />This regional climate outlook for the 2024 southwest monsoon season has been developed by all nine National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of south Asia with support from international experts at the 28th session of SASCOF-28, conducted online. <br /><br />SASCOF said moderate <keyword id="19949878" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="El-Nino" source="keywords">El Nino</keyword> conditions are prevailing at present. ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions are expected in the first half of the monsoon season. Thereafter, La Nina conditions may set in by the second half. <br /><br />El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India. <br /><br />La Nina conditions -- the antithesis of El Nino -- are the dominant factor in the likelihood of "above-normal" rainfall during the monsoon season, DS Pai, a senior scientist at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), told PTI. <br /><br />Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, favourable for the Indian monsoon, are predicted in the later part of the season. Additionally, the snow cover in the northern hemisphere is low. The northern hemisphere winter and spring snow cover extent generally have an inverse relationship with the subsequent southwest <keyword id="20575709" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon-rainfall" source="keywords">monsoon rainfall</keyword> over south Asia. <br /><br />Earlier this month, the IMD said the seasonal rainfall in India will be on the higher side of 'above-normal' and pegged it at 106 per cent of the long-period average (87 cm).<br /><br /><b>SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/mahindra-xuv-3xo-compact-suv-launched-in-india-starting-at-7-49-lakh/slidelist/109715525.cms" target="_blank"></a></b><br /><br /> <b><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/mahindra-xuv-3xo-compact-suv-launched-in-india-starting-at-7-49-lakh/slidelist/109715525.cms" target="_blank">Mahindra XUV 3XO compact SUV launched in India starting at ₹7.49 lakh</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/upcoming-cars-and-two-wheelers-launching-in-india-in-may-2024/slidelist/109723620.cms" target="_blank"></a></b><br /><br /> <b><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/upcoming-cars-and-two-wheelers-launching-in-india-in-may-2024/slidelist/109723620.cms" target="_blank">Upcoming cars and two-wheelers launching in India in May 2024</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/upcoming-smartphones-launching-in-india-in-may-2024/slidelist/109682003.cms" target="_blank"></a></b><br /><br /> <b><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/upcoming-smartphones-launching-in-india-in-may-2024/slidelist/109682003.cms" target="_blank">Upcoming smartphones launching in India in May 2024</a></b><br />

Above-normal monsoon rainfall predicted in south Asia

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Sean Gallup / Staff / Getty Images</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>After a recent <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/life-and-death-el-ni%C3%B1o">incredibly strong El Niño episode</a>, it looks like the tides - or at least the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures - have shifted.</p><p>Conditions have aligned (in some cases barely, but enough) to the point that "La Niña has officially arrived," according to Emily Becker, writing over at the <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/november-2016-la-ni%C3%B1a-update-hello-lady">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) ENSO blog</a>.</p><p>And though these aren't strong La Niña conditions, they <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-expect-winter-noaa%E2%80%99s-2016-17-winter-outlook">will affect the winter weather forecast for the United States</a>. Basically, they increase the chances that winter will be drier and warmer in the southern US, but the north of the country is likely to be colder, wetter, and therefore, snowier than normal.</p><p>These predictions are at least fairly similar to those of rough-looking <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/accuweather-forecast-winter-snow-2016-9">winter forecast that Accuweather sent to Business Insider</a>, predicting mild temperatures in the South and particularly cold temperatures in the upper Midwest, along with wet and stormy conditions in the Northeast (though the La Niña predictions are still uncertain for the Northeast).</p><p>La Niña is basically the opposite of El Niño, meaning that instead of warm conditions in a particular part of the equatorial Pacific, the water is cooler than average. Since surface temperatures are more than half a degree cooler than average, there's strong atmospheric circulation in the tropics of the Pacific, and forecasters think it will stay cooler for several overlapping three month periods (July to September and August to October both count), we've officially hit the La Niña point.</p><p>This - just like when the opposite happens - can change weather around the globe.</p><p>Still, these particular conditions are fairly mild, and the effects are slightly complicated by the fact that the Niño region is surrounded by shockingly warm waters.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>NOAA</span></p><p class="caption">Average sea surface temperature during October 2016, compared to the 1981-2010 average. The blue patch is what defines the current La Niña.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Chances are about 55% that these conditions persist through midwinter.</p><p>Here are some of the other specific effects we might see:</p><ul><li>More clounds and rain over Indonesia.</li><li>Strong winds over Hawaii.</li><li>A wet and cold winter in northern states, especially in the upper Midwest (see maps below).</li><li>Drought persisting in California and the Southwest, potentially expanding into the Southeast.</li></ul><p>Here are NOAA's precipitation predictions:</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="NOAA" title_caption="Precipitation outlook for the United States." class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5825d63a691e888b588b5bd1-960/precipitationoutlook_winter2016_4960_with_legend.png"><span class="sprites click-to-enlarge-icon" title="Click to enlarge"></span></a><p class="source"><span>NOAA</span></p><p class="caption">Precipitation outlook for the United States.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>And temperature projections:</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>NOAA</span></p><p class="caption">NOAA temperature projections.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>There are still a lot of unknowns here, mostly because long term seasonal forecasts are still really complicated, according to Mike Halpert, also <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-expect-winter-noaa%E2%80%99s-2016-17-winter-outlook">writing for NOAA's ENSO blog</a>.</p><p>"Seasonal climate forecasts are not as skillful as weather predictions," Halpert writes, "and phenomena like El Niño or La Niña only provide some clues, not certainty, as to what might occur during an upcoming season."</p><p>It's possible that conditions won't match the predictions, according to Halpert, though over the long term, he says they're still more right than wrong. So if that's the case and you live in a northern state, you might want to get your coats and boots ready.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/dematologist-reveals-mistakes-men-make-workout-2016-10">A dermatologist explains the mistakes men make after working out</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="cyb2szNzE6B-AeZvy_labrKfc8c-T3MZ" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

La Nina has officially arrived

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Danish Siddiqui/Reuters</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>One of the biggest drivers of Asian currencies in the coming months could be the weather. </p><p>In a note out Wednesday, strategists at Deutsche Bank examined the impact that the climate pattern <span>La Niña could have on Asian economies, and </span>how a pass through effect from the weather<span> could ease a jump in inflation and eventually weaken currencies. </span></p><p><span><span>The National Oceanic Administration Agency has confirmed that <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/la-nina-is-coming-2016-4">La Niña is coming</a><span>. It will follow a record-setting El<span> Niño, which is marked by unusually dry weather. </span></span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>La Niña is characterized by powerful monsoons that could flood low-lying areas; Thailand was slammed by heavy flooding in 2011, for example. </span></span></span><span><span><span><span>The cycle between both</span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span>, which occasionally happens every two to seven years, is known as the El <span>Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.</span></span></span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span><span><span>The main economic impact across much of Asia will be on inflation, via food prices - the largest component of the consumer price index in most Asian countries, </span></span></span></span></span>Deutsche Bank wrote. Drought conditions in the recent <span>El</span><span> Niño pushed up fruit and vegetable costs.</span></p><p>Here's Deutsche Bank's John Tierney and team (emphasis added):</p><p style="padding-left: 60px;">"With the ENSO cycle normalizing and La Niña possibly coming, food inflation should settle down along with feed stock prices. This should lead to lower meat prices, which is positive for China, Hong Kong, Korea, and Taiwan. <strong>Lower inflation may also, at the margins, lead to lower rates in these countries, and a narrowing of interest rate differentials versus the dollar which, in turn, could contribute to a weakening of currencies in these countries</strong>."</p><p>China has sharply devalued the yuan to make its exports more competitive. Other export-heavy nations like Taiwan and South Korea would also rather have a weaker currency for this reason. </p><p>And in addition to weather-related impacts, Deutsche Bank expects the Malaysian ringgit and Philippine peso may already skew to weakness given other domestic factors, boosting the export prospects for these nations. </p><p>The only country that could be adversely affected by all of this is Thailand, the analysts said, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/good-news-thailand-rice-stockpile-2016-5">because the government steps in</a> to provide above-market prices for crops which could offset any weather-related impacts. </p>      <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/extreme-weather-forecast-for-2016-hurricanes-mudslides-el-nino-global-warming-2016-1">The weather forecast for 2016 is terrifying</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="5rMjYyMDE6KgrZop_XAT6eyvkRRkzwKr" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

A major weather pattern is about to dominate global currency markets

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>CIRA/RAMMB; GOES-16/NOAA</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul><li><strong>The 2018 hurricane season begins June 1.</strong></li><li><strong>Most forecasts predict that the number of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/hurricanes">hurricanes</a> will be a slightly above average, but more or fewer are always possible.</strong></li><li><strong>Last year predictions were similar, but we had one of the most disastrous, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/atlantic-hurricane-season-records-2017-11">extremely active hurricane seasons</a> on record.</strong></li></ul><p><br />The 2018 hurricane season begins June 1.</p><p>Most initial forecasts project that the number of storms will be above average, and several forecasts indicate an above-average likelihood that a major hurricane will make landfall in the Caribbean, the Gulf Coast, or the East Coast.</p><p>For residents still picking up after Hurricanes <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/hurricane-harvey">Harvey</a>, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/hurricane-irma">Irma</a>, and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/hurricane-maria">Maria</a>, it's too soon.</p><p>Before the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-season-2017-maria-irma-harvey-2017-9">2017 hurricane season</a> started, forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project, and The Weather Channel had pegged that year as likely to be above average but not extreme. It turned out to be one of the most disastrous, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-goddard-visualization-hurricane-season-atmosphere-2017-11">extremely active hurricane seasons</a> on record.</p><p>So it's important to remember that the current forecasts are still preliminary and will be updated at the start of the season and during the season.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins</span></p><p class="caption">A man looks for valuables in the damaged house of a relative after the area was hit by Hurricane Maria in Guayama, Puerto Rico September 20, 2017.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>What to expect for 2018</h2><p>An average hurricane season is based on the 30-year average from 1981-2010.  By that definition, an average season includes 12 named storms and six hurricanes, with three of those being major hurricanes - storms that qualify as <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-hurricane-damage-as-measured-by-saffir-simpson-scale-2017-8">category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale</a>.</p><p>The researchers at <a href="https://tropical.colostate.edu/">Colorado State's Tropical Meteorology Project</a> issued their <a href="https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2018/04/2018-04.pdf">extended range forecast</a> for the 2018 season on April 5, predicting 14 named storms. Of those, they forecast seven hurricanes, three of which could be major.</p><p><a href="https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-04-19-2018-hurricane-season-forecast-the-weather-company-ibm-april">The Weather Channel's early predictions</a> suggest a more average year, with 13 named storms and six hurricanes, two that qualify as major hurricanes. A team at <a href="https://news.ncsu.edu/2018/04/2018-hurricane-prediction/">North Carolina State announced April 16</a> that they predict 14 to 18 named storms, seven to 11 of which are hurricanes. Of those, they expect three to five to be major. </p><p>The <a href="http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has yet to release</a> their early season guidance.</p><p>Hurricanes in the Atlantic are formed by a confluence of global conditions, including ocean temperatures in both the Atlantic and Pacific (which can affect winds), long-term ocean currents, and atmospheric winds. Right now, the western Atlantic is abnormally warm, but the eastern and northern Atlantic are abnormally cool. A weak La Niña event in the Pacific (which means that waters are cool) is expected to transition to a state of "ENSO-neutral," meaning there won't be any La Niña or El Niño conditions. That was the situation last year as well.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Thomas B. Shea/AFP/Getty Images</span></p><p class="caption">People walk through the flooded waters of Telephone Road in Houston on Sunday as the city battles with tropical storm Harvey and resulting floods.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>It takes just one storm</h2><p>No matter how many storms end up forming in the coming months, it's important to remember that it takes only one hurricane hitting a populated area to make a season "active" for coastal residents.</p><p>Even storms that don't qualify as major hurricanes can still have major consequences. Harvey qualified as a tropical storm, not a hurricane, when it dumped record-setting rains on Houston and other parts of the Gulf Coast, causing the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/weather-disasters-damage-cost-record-306-billion-in-2017-2018-1">majority of the $125 billion worth of damage</a>.</p><p>A <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL077597">recent study found</a> that in recent years, storms have become more intense in a short period of time, undergoing rapid intensification. That was the case for several of the most destructive storms of last summer and fall. Researchers also say that <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/did-climate-change-contribute-to-hurricane-harvey-2017-8">as the world gets warmer</a>, we can expect to see more intense storms that dump more rain, causing floods.</p><p>Even though hurricane season starts soon, the season typically becomes more active later in the summer, <a href="https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/996071339113902080">reaching a peak in September</a>.</p><p>For residents of the still-storm-battered Caribbean, the hope is for a respite in 2018. But it's time to start preparing.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/time-lapse-shows-hurricane-irma-slamming-miami-beach-2017-9">This time-lapse shows Hurricane Irma slamming Miami Beach</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

The 2018 hurricane season begins in 2 weeks, and early forecasts predict more storms than average - again

Brace  yourself for an  extended summer season and scanty rainfall along with rise in prices of food items this year as the Australian Meteorological Department predicted on Tuesday that the tropical Pacific was in early stages of the El Nino weather phenomenon.<br />
 <br /> The bureau’s current observations state that India's south-west monsoon will be deficient and it has already been predicted by the <keyword id="6355166" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="India-Meteorological-Department">India Meteorological Department</keyword> in April, as per an Economic Times report. <br />
 <br />
El Nino refers to the warming of Pacific waters and is seen as having a wide-ranging impact on global weather.<br />
 <br /> This comes as bad news for India as the <keyword id="390879" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="monsoon-season">monsoon season</keyword>, which runs from June to September in the country, is the main source of water for the agriculture sector. This will affect the <keyword id="2848024" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Agriculture-based-industries">agriculture-based industries</keyword> and the food industry. <br />
 <br />
In the wake of poor rainfall last year and unseasonal rains and snowfall in recent months, India's revival plans and economic growth will also be hampered.<br />
 <br />
According to the Australian weather office, the El Nino Southern Oscillation ( ENSO) indicators have shown a steady trend toward El Nino levels since the start of the year. The temperatures of sea surface in the tropical Pacific Ocean have also exceeded El Nino thresholds recently.<br />
 <br />
Moreover, such changes are also supported by warmer-than-average waters below the surface which will worsen the weather condition.<br />
 <br />
Trade winds have remained consistently weaker than average since the start of the year. "These indicators suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have started to couple and reinforce each other, indicating El Nino is likely to persist in the coming months," the Australian weather office said.<br />
 <br />
International climate models surveyed by the bureau indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain above El Nino thresholds through the coming winter and at least into spring.<br />
<br />
(Image:Reuters) <br />

El Nino brings bad news for India. Here’s how

<br /> Prepare yourself for the extended summer season and scanty rainfall along with rise in food items this year too as the <keyword id="2847281" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Australian-Meteorological-Department">Australian Meteorological Department</keyword> predicted on Tuesday that the tropical Pacific is in the early stages of the El Nino weather phenomenon.<br />
 <br /> The bureau’s current observations tell that India's southwest monsoon will be deficient and it has already been predicted by the <keyword id="6355166" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="India-Meteorological-Department">India Meteorological Department</keyword> in April, as per an Economic Times report. <br />
 <br />
The monsoon season runs from June to September in India and is the main source of water for the country's agriculture sector. This will affect the agriculture-based industries and the food industry. <br />
 <br />
In the wake of poor rainfall last year and unseasonal rains and snowfall in recent months, India's revival plans and economic growth will hampered.<br />
 <br />
Meanwhile, El Nino refers to the warming of Pacific waters and is seen as having a wide-ranging impact on global weather.<br />
 <br /> According to the Australian weather office, the El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO indicators have shown a steady trend toward El Nino levels since the start of the year. The temperatures of sea surface in the tropical <keyword id="90495" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Pacific-Ocean">Pacific Ocean</keyword> have also exceeded El Nino thresholds recently.<br />
 <br />
Moreover, such changes are also supported by warmer-than-average waters below the surface which will worsen the weather condition.<br />
 <br /> Trade winds have remained consistently weaker than average since the start of the year. "These indicators suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean and <keyword id="6366415" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="atmosphere">atmosphere</keyword> have started to couple and reinforce each other, indicating El Nino is likely to persist in the coming months," the Australian weather office said.<br />
 <br />
International climate models surveyed by the bureau indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain above El Nino thresholds through the coming winter and at least into spring.<br />
<br />
(Image : Reuters)<br />
 <br />

​El Nino on its way again

<p><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image"><p class="source"><span>NOAA</span></p><p class="caption"> Forecast models show an increase in sea surface temperature anomalies later this year.</p></div><p></p></div></div></span>On Wednesday, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html" target="_blank">issued an El Niño watch</a>, with a roughly 50% chance of development in the summer or fall of this year. </p>
<p>El <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html" target="_blank">Niño</a>, also called the southern oscillation, is a warming of the tropical Pacific ocean that happens about every five years. This warming changes wind patterns and affects weather and storm systems around the world. </p>
<p>On the East Coast, for example, strong El Niño events generally result in warmer, dryer than average winters. It could also lead to fewer storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. </p>
<p>"El Niño conditions tend to make quieter than average Atlantic hurricane seasons, due to an increase in upper-level winds that create strong wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic," according to <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2642" target="_blank">Wunderblog's Jeff Masters</a>.<a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2642" target="_blank"></a><a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2642" target="_blank"></a></p>
<p>For an El Niño event to be declared, average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer for three months in a row - so there's now a 50% chance these temperature anomalies will happen later this year. </p>
<p>Here's an animation <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtml" target="_blank">from NOAA</a> of weekly average sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific for the past three months.</p>
<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><p class="source"><span>NOAA</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p>
<p>The El Niño watch doesn't necessarily mean that El Niño will occur. "A watch simply means that conditions across the tropical Pacific are favorable for the development of El Niño during the next, roughly, three to six months," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center, <a href="http://www.weather.com/news/el-nino-enso-warming-ocean-pacific-drought-hurricane-20140306" target="_blank">according to Weather.com</a>. </p>
<p>"While all models predict warming in the tropical Pacific, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether El Niño will develop during the summer or fall," NOAA said in an alert. "If westerly winds continue to emerge in the western equatorial Pacific, the development of El Niño would become more likely. However, the lower forecast skill during the spring and overall propensity for cooler conditions over the last decade still justify significant probabilities for ENSO-neutral."</p>

NOAA Issues An El Nino Watch, Says There's A 50% Chance For Development Later This Year

<p>&#xa0;</p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div>The 2015-16 El Niño has <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/">likely reached its end</a>. Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, trade winds, cloud and pressure patterns have all dropped back to near normal, although clearly the event's impacts around the globe are still being felt.<p>Recent changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures have been comparable to the decline seen at the end of the 1998 El Niño, although temperatures remain warmer than at the end of the most recent El Niño in 2010. Models suggest that ocean cooling will continue, with little chance of a return to El Niño levels in the immediate future.</p><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div><p>The 2015-16 El Niño will go down as one of the three strongest El Niño events since 1950. Every El Niño is different, but typically the stronger the event, the greater its global impact. The 2015-16 El Niño was no exception, with wide-ranging effects felt around the world.</p><p>El Niño also added to the globe's warming trend, making <a href="https://theconversation.com/2016-is-likely-to-be-the-worlds-hottest-year-heres-why-59378">2015 the world's hottest calendar year on record</a>. Early indications are that 2016 could be hotter still.</p><p>So as El Niño fades, let's take stock of its impacts worldwide.</p><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div><h2>Africa</h2><p>Drought meant that <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/business/news/farmers-owe-banks-r125bn-as-crops-wither-1971244">South African food production</a> was around six million tonnes below normal levels - the lowest since 1995.</p><p>In Zimbabwe, Malawi and Mozambique, maize prices were at least 50% higher than usual, with drought unlikely to break until rains in summer 2016-17. In the <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/not-so-rainy-season-drought-southern-africa-january-2016">driest areas of Zimbabwe</a>, more than 75% of crops were lost. In May 2016, Zimbabwean national parks put wildlife up for sale in a bid to save animals from drought.</p><p>The <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/the-times/chocolate-prices-to-rise-as-el-nino-brings-big-dry-to-west-africa/news-story/7b68da82787af93e2557435638699c47">cost of chocolate</a> hit a four-year high as a result of drought and lost production in the world's major cocoa producer, Ivory Coast.</p><p>Drought also affected Ethiopia, Somalia, Swaziland, Zambia and parts of Madagascar, with more than 10 million Ethiopians in need of food aid.</p><p>In December 2015, <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5282e.pdf">Rift Valley fever</a> was reported in East Africa. The disease is associated with heavy rainfall providing a fertile breeding ground for the mosquitoes that carry the virus.</p><p>In Tanzania, <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/el-nino-induced-floods-ravage-east-africa/a-19245333">heavy rain destroyed crops and food reserves</a>, while in Kenya <a href="http://www.unocha.org/el-nino-southern-africa">heavy rains aggravated cholera outbreaks</a>. In May 2016, landslides in Rwanda cost many lives and heavy rains damaged infrastructure and hundreds of homes.</p><h2>The Pacific region</h2><p>El Niño is often, but not always, associated with <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-the-indian-ocean-and-el-nino-join-forces-things-can-get-hot-and-dry-48969">drought in Australia</a>. But the drying influence of the 2015-16 El Niño was initially tempered somewhat by very warm temperatures in the Indian Ocean. From April to August, above-average rainfall fell over parts of inland Western Australia, New South Wales and eastern Victoria.</p><p>But by spring, the Indian Ocean was helping El Niño, resulting in Australia's third-driest spring on record, limiting growth at the end of the cropping season. A record early heatwave in October further <a href="http://www.farmonline.com.au/news/agriculture/cropping/grains/el-nio-hammers-wheat-crop/2745601.aspx">reduced crop production in the Murray-Darling Basin</a>.</p><p>However, the lack of heavy rains in the north and west meant <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mining-australia-elnino-idUSKCN0S601W20151012">reduced downtime for mining</a>.</p><p>The northern wet season produced a record-low three tropical cyclones in the Australian region. The previous record was five, which happened in 1987-88 and again in 2006-07 - both El Niño years.</p><p>Fewer clouds and less tropical rain contributed to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/coral-bleaching">most severe coral bleaching</a> event on record for the Great Barrier Reef.</p><p>The combination of heat and low rainfall brought a very early start to the fire season, with more than 70 fires burning in Victoria and around 55 fires in Tasmania during October. Dry conditions in Tasmania also resulted in hundreds of fires being started by dry lightning in mid-January 2016. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/fires-in-tasmanias-ancient-forests-are-a-warning-for-all-of-us-53806">fires damaged large areas of the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area</a>, including areas of rainforest and bogs, which may not have seen fire for centuries.</p><p>In Papua New Guinea, <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-papua-new-guinea-faces-worsening-drought-a-past-disaster-could-save-lives-46390">drought and frost led to crop failures and food shortages</a>. Staple sweet potato crops in the highlands were severely damaged by August frosts - the result of El Niño reducing night-time cloud cover - which also destroyed wild plants that are usually eaten as a backup source of food.</p><p>Vanuatu, Fiji, the Solomon Islands, Samoa and Tonga experienced <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2015/12/14/el-nino-warning-bells-ringing-oxfam">worsening drought</a>. Islands closer to the Equator such as Kiribati and Tuvalu had intense rain causing flooding, as well as higher sea levels due to warmer waters and weaker trade winds.</p><h2>Asia</h2><p>In the Philippines, drought was declared in 85% of provinces. Indonesia experienced its worst drought in 18 years. <a href="https://theconversation.com/indonesia-fires-threaten-to-send-even-modest-climate-ambitions-up-in-smoke-49155">Forest fires caused poor air quality</a> over vast neighbouring areas including Singapore, Malaysia, southern Thailand and the southern Philippines.</p><p>In the Mekong Basin, delayed monsoon rains reduced rice production, with significant reductions in Vietnam. In Thailand, severe water shortages led to water rationing and delayed rice planting. The Thai government <a href="http://time.com/3960462/thailand-drought/">lowered its forecast for rice exports</a> by two million tonnes. This led to some African countries increasing their imports, fearing a price rise.</p><p><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-28/malaysian-palm-oil-production-to-worsen-on-el-nino-mistry-says">Palm oil prices rose</a> as supplies became limited due to drought in Malaysia and Indonesia. In April 2016, a heatwave set national temperature records for Thailand, Laos and Cambodia.</p><p>Northern parts of China experienced drought in 2015. Heavy rainfall in southern China persisted through the second half of 2015, with flooding and landslides recorded along the Yangtze River Valley. China's December-to-February rainfall was approximately 50% above normal. In May 2016, heavy rain caused <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/1949392/torrential-rains-claim-eight-lives-southern-chinas-guangdong">flooding and landslides in China's Guangdong province</a>.</p><p>In India, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-03/india-is-suffering-one-of-its-worst-droughts-in-decades">below-average monsoon rains</a> in June to September led to reduced rice, corn, cotton and sugar output in 2015. Below-average rainfall between October and December also affected India's wheat harvest. Major water shortages emerged in some areas, including Mumbai - the result of two years of failed rains.</p><p>Indian Premier League cricket matches were relocated from Mumbai, Pune and Nagpur due to water restrictions. Record heat affected the north and west of the country in May, setting a <a href="http://reliefweb.int/report/india/india-sets-new-heat-record-temperatures-soar">new national record of 51?</a> in Phalodi.</p><p>Conversely, some <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/12/10/before-and-after-satellite-imagery-of-the-historic-flooding-in-chennai-india/">southern parts of India had exceptionally wet conditions</a>, with record-breaking rains and widespread flooding in Chennai in November and December. The city received over 300mm of rainfall on December 1, 2015; the wettest day in more than a century.</p><h2>South and Central America</h2><p>Peru experienced widespread flooding and mudslides in early 2016, with heavy rain leaving more than 5,000 people homeless. In Ecuador, flooding and landslides damaged properties and affected shrimp production.</p><p>More than 150,000 people were evacuated from <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-35184793">flooded areas in Paraguay, Uruguay, Brazil, and Argentina</a> in December 2015. Some experts have linked El Niño flooding to outbreaks of <a href="http://who.int/hac/crises/el-nino/22february2016/en/">mosquito-borne diseases such as Zika virus</a>.</p><p>In January 2016, Argentina experienced its worst locust plague since 1954, following heavy rains and warm temperatures. Heavy rains returned to Argentina and Paraguay in April 2016, causing large agricultural losses.</p><p>In contrast, <a href="http://latincorrespondent.com/2016/02/el-nino-wreaks-havoc-in-colombia/">Colombia experienced drought and forest fires</a>, which caused severe damage to crops and pushed up food prices, leading to malnutrition in some areas. In November 2015, the United Nations warned that 2.3 million people would need food aid in Central America.</p><p>The Caribbean also experienced drought; Cuba had its most severe dry season in 115 years; Barbados, Dominica, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Antigua, Barbuda and Saint Lucia experienced water shortages, with the latter declaring a national emergency. The Dominican Republic experienced serious agricultural losses.</p><p>Brazil had a particularly high number of forest fires during 2015, exacerbated by ongoing drought conditions in the Amazon region. Drought in Brazil and Colombia (and Indonesia) meant <a href="https://weather.com/science/environment/news/el-nino-weather-damages-coffee-crops">coffee prices soared</a> as dry conditions affected all the major coffee-producing countries.</p><p>In contrast, excess rain in northeast Brazil flooded crops, leading to rises in the sugar price worldwide.</p><h2>North America</h2><p>In California, many hoped that El Niño would bring relief from five years of drought. But despite some regions getting heavy rain more typical of El Niño, leading to mudslides, El Niño failed to end the long-term dry.</p><p>In the southeast and south-central United States, rainfall was above normal. Major flooding occurred along the Mississippi River. Missouri received three times its normal rainfall during November and December 2015.</p><p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-17/crabs-carpet-california-beaches/7420956">Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures</a> offshore meant warm water species such as sea snakes, red tuna crabs and hammerhead sharks were found on Californian beaches.</p><p><em>For information on the current and forecast state of ENSO, keep an eye on <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/">the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up</a>.</em></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container"><div class="image"><div class="KonaFilter image-container"><div class="image"></div></div></div></div><p><span><a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/alison-cook-269168">Alison Cook</a>, Climatologist, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/the-bureau-of-meteorology">Australian Bureau of Meteorology</a></em>; <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-b-watkins-2818">Andrew B. Watkins</a>, Manager of Climate Prediction Services, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/the-bureau-of-meteorology">Australian Bureau of Meteorology</a></em>; <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/blair-trewin-3692">Blair Trewin</a>, Climatologist, National Climate Centre, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/the-bureau-of-meteorology">Australian Bureau of Meteorology</a></em>, and <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/catherine-ganter-259928">Catherine Ganter</a>, Senior Climatologist, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/the-bureau-of-meteorology">Australian Bureau of Meteorology</a></em></span></p><p>This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/el-nino-is-over-but-has-left-its-mark-across-the-world-59993">original article</a>.</p><div class="KonaFilter image-container"><div class="image"><div class="KonaFilter image-container"><div class="image"></div></div></div></div>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/weather-system-in-a-box-2016-3">This is a weather system in a box</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="E0dTNpMTE6pr_yrk_cImaAg0baJy6XE7" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

El Nino is over - but its impacts are still being felt across the globe

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span><a href="http://pictures.reuters.com/C.aspx?VP3=SearchResult&amp;VBID=2C0FCI6TZ5TDS&amp;SMLS=1&amp;RW=1440&amp;RH=718&amp;RW=1440&amp;RH=718#/SearchResult&amp;VBID=2C0FCI6TZ5TDS&amp;SMLS=1&amp;RW=1440&amp;RH=718&amp;POPUPPN=53&amp;POPUPIID=2C0BF1L1ID9K">REUTERS/Vladimir Konstantinov</a></span></p><p class="caption">ICAP, or NEX Group, is placing its bets.</p></div><p></p></div></div>ICAP as we know it is dead.</p><p>The £2.9 billion City of London dealer-broker <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/tullett-prebon-agrees-merger-deal-with-icap-2015-11">announced a deal to sell its global broking division to rival Tullett Prebon</a> last year. But on Monday the company, which buys and sells things like derivatives and swaps, revealed it will also sell its brand name, ICAP, with the deal and <a href="http://www.investegate.co.uk/icap-plc--iap-/rns/icap-newco-plc-announces-new-name--nex-group-plc/201605160703032508Y/">reinvent itself as NEX Group.</a></p><p>CEO Michael Spencer, a major Tory party donor, says NEX Group "intends to lead the market in technology innovation in global financial markets." As part of this shift, Spencer says: "Euclid Opportunities, our early-stage fintech investment incubator, which finds these new investments will play a bigger and more important role as we become NEX Group plc."</p><p>ICAP needs to reinvent itself because its traditional business of brokering exotic products for clients is the toilet. In the post-2008 worlds, bankers and finance workers are looking to de-risk their businesses, not indulge in the complex bets that characterized the City in the decade before the crash.</p><p>So Spencer wants to transform ICAP into a venture capital firm to help it find the products and services that finance workers <em>do</em> want now.</p><p>Fintech, or financial technology, is the name given to the wave of startups that have sprung up since the financial crisis that are aiming to refine or reinvent finance using technology. Faster and cheaper tech has made businesses that would have been unthinkable even 5 years ago relatively cheap and easy to do.</p><p>ICAP has been making strategic investments in technology startups since the early 2000s but it has recently been stepping up activities, investing in the last year in:</p><ul><li><strong>Abide Financial:</strong> A regulatory reporting platform;</li><li><strong>Digital Asset Holdings:</strong> <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/blythe-masters-blockchain-company-digital-asset-holdings-opens-london-office-jp-morgan-2016-1">A startup building new market infrastructure based on blockchain tech, the underpinning of bitcoin, and run by former JPMorgan banker Blythe Masters</a>;</li><li><strong>Cloud9:</strong> A cloud-based communication platform for trades;</li><li><strong>Duco:</strong> A data control service;</li><li><strong>AcadiaSoft:</strong> An industry collaboration platform to automate collateral management.</li></ul><p>In April ICAP also acquired ENSO Financial Analytics, a portfolio analytics provider to asset managers and hedge funds. Through deals like this ICAP, or NEX Group as we should now call it, hope to "create the world's leading multi-product global electronic transaction network for OTC products and post-trade services."</p><p>You can already see a theme emerging from ICAP's investments so far - compliance and regulation. These are the watchwords in the City after 2008 and technology offers a way to do smarter and cheaper analytics and recording of what it is you are holding and just how risky it is.</p><p>ICAP announced its plans to bet big on new products and services alongside <a href="http://www.investegate.co.uk/icap-plc--iap-/rns/full-year-results/201605160700072738Y/">a set of full-year results</a> that show just why it needs to reinvent itself. Here are the key figures:</p><ul><li>Revenue down from £1.27 billion to £1.20 billion;</li><li>Pre-tax profit down from £95 million in 2015 to £89 million;</li><li>Profit margin down from 20% to 18%.</li></ul><p>Spencer <a href="http://www.investegate.co.uk/icap-plc--iap-/rns/full-year-results/201605160700072738Y/">says in the results statement</a>:</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">Trading conditions continue to be challenging as a result of the macro economic environment, historically low and negative interest rates and continued bank deleveraging. These headwinds have naturally impacted our performance during the year. In the US in December 2015, we saw the welcome first step in raising interest rates but in what is likely to be a long and slow journey towards more normal market conditions.</p><p>ICAP's deal with Tullett has <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/tullett-prebon-icap-us-information-2016-2">faced some regulatory scrutiny in the US</a> but Spencer says the deal "remains on track to complete later this year."  In 2013, ICAP was fined $87 million (£59 million) for its part in the long-running Libor manipulation scandal by the US Department of Justice.</p><p class="tagline"><div id="categorypromo"><p></p></div></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/regret-avoidance-plays-into-lottery-tickets-2016-5">We tested an economic theory by trying to buy people's lottery tickets for much more than they paid</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="VlOTU2MDE6tCw0GqSor_wM7L40EQEVfv" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

One of the City's biggest independent brokers is betting the house on fintech

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>NASA Earth Observatory images by Joshua Stevens and Jesse Allen</span></p><p class="caption">Hurricanes Katia, Irma, and Jose churn their way through the Atlantic and Caribbean.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul><li><strong>The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is "extremely active," according to the definitions used by the National Hurricane Center.</strong></li><li><strong>That's largely because there have been excellent conditions for hurricanes to form: low wind shear and high ocean temperatures.</strong></li><li><strong>This year will set some records but won't necessarily be as bad as 2005.</strong></li></ul><p>First came <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/hurricane-harvey-2017">Harvey</a>, which dumped unprecedented amounts of rain on <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/tropical-storm-harvey-hurricane-updates-map-texas-where-landfall-damage-2017-8">Houston and the Gulf Coast</a>. Then <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/hurricane-irma-2017">Irma</a> rolled over the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-irma-us-virgin-islands-damage-2017-9">Virgin Islands</a>, St. Martin, and other parts of the Caribbean before <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-irma-florida-keys-landfall-photos-damage-videos-2017-9">slamming into</a> Florida. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-maria-path-track-update-2017-9">Maria stripped</a> the roofs off of building after building in Dominica and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/photos-hurricane-maria-puerto-rico-damage-caribbean-2017-9">wiped out the power infrastructure in Puerto Rico</a>. Two of those storms first made landfall as Category 5 hurricanes, the other a Category 4.</p><p>And those are just the major hurricanes (defined as Category 3 or above) of 2017 that have made landfall. Another major hurricane, Jose, threatened some already ravaged Caribbean islands before taking a turn to to the north. So far this year, there have been seven hurricanes in total, and 13 named storms.</p><p>If those numbers make the 2017 hurricane season seem particularly intense, that's because it is.</p><p>The <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization has a formal definition</a> for an "extremely active" Atlantic hurricane season. For that to happen, storms have to generate a certain amount of accumulated cyclone energy - a measure of storm intensity, duration, and frequency. There also have to meet two out of these three conditions: 13 or more named storms, 7 or more hurricanes, and 3 or more major hurricanes.</p><p>Phil Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University, specializes in Atlantic hurricane forecasts and tracks cyclone energy. <a href="https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/910618090844471296">He said on Twitter</a> that by September 20, we'd already met the definition of "extremely active," with enough cyclone energy and all three of the above conditions checked off.</p><p>Hurricane season isn't over until November 30, so there's almost certainly more to come.</p><p>So why do storms keep coming one after another?</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span><a href="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/tatl.html">NOAA</a></span></p><p class="caption">The water vapor from Hurricane Jose, Tropical Storm Maria, and Tropical Depression Lee is seen via satellite on Sunday, September 17, 2017.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>"Extremely active"</h2><p>In many ways, 2017 has had ideal conditions for a lot of big, powerful storms, several experts told Business Insider.</p><p>Two main factors have allowed these massive storms to form: the lack of an El Niño system, and the fact that the Atlantic is unusually warm.</p><p>El Niño systems generate particularly warm temperatures in the Pacific, which tends to create high wind shear in the Atlantic. James Belanger, a senior meteorological scientist with The Weather Company (the group behind the Weather Channel and Weather Underground), <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-irma-effect-on-hurricane-season-2017-9">told Business Insider</a> that wind shear "rips storms apart" before they develop into massive systems.</p><p>But this year, we've had what are referred to as "ENSO-neutral" conditions so far, meaning that there hasn't been any El Niño or La Niña system whose wind shear could prevent hurricanes.</p><p>At the same time, the North Atlantic has been "quite warm," Belanger said. Warm water helps storms intensify since the weather systems absorb heat energy from the water. As <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ClimateStorms/page2.php">NASA puts it</a>, "the more heat energy that goes in, the more vigorously a weather system can churn."</p><p>Warm ocean temperatures in the Caribbean allowed this year's storms to rapidly gain power. Maria, the most recent, is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/19/the-scariest-thing-about-2017s-hurricanes-they-got-really-bad-really-fast/?utm_term=.561a549a975c">likely to set a record</a> for being the most rapidly intensifying hurricane ever measured.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Gerben Van Es/Dutch Defense Ministry via AP</span></p><p class="caption">The aftermath of Hurricane Irma in St. Maarten.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Two combined factors affect on Atlantic temperatures: ocean heat content (a measure of heat stored by the ocean), and sea surface temperatures (measured at the top layer of the ocean). There's no simple explanation for this year's high surface temperatures and ocean heat content, according to Belanger. One possibility is that weaker trade winds and wind speeds in the Atlantic have led to less evaporation, which would normally cool the ocean more. </p><p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/07/the-science-behind-the-u-s-s-strange-hurricane-drought-and-its-sudden-end/?tid=ss_tw&amp;utm_term=.73b6530fc01b">Another factor is climate change</a>, since data indicates that a warmer climate is likely to result in more intense hurricanes and more <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0134.1">rapid storm intensification</a>. Oceans absorb much of the heat that's emitted into the atmosphere, which leads to warmer water. That's one of the reasons researchers say that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/19/why-its-time-to-stop-calling-these-hurricane-disasters-natural/">climate change will lead to more intense storms</a> like the ones we've seen this year.</p><p>Along with raising sea temperatures, climate change also causes sea-level rise - which makes cities more vulnerable to the storm surge that comes with hurricanes. Plus, global warming is expected to lead to a higher concentration of atmospheric water vapor and heavier rainfall. Intense rainfall can be devastating, as Harvey showed in Houston and Maria has shown in Puerto Rico.</p><p>Climate change didn't cause any of the storms that we've seen this year, and we don't yet know how the changing climate affected these specific hurricanes. But climate scientists have warned that the world could see more storms as temperatures rise. If nothing else, this season could serve as an example of what we'll see in the future.</p><p>"There is evidence that we are emerging from an era of messy meteorological data, where we were blind to warming seas strengthening hurricanes because the really damaging ones were rare," meteorologist <a href="http://grist.org/article/harvey-irma-maria-this-is-the-hurricane-season-scientists-expected-and-feared/">Eric Holthaus wrote for Grist</a>. "If that's true, weather historians may look to this year as the beginning of a frightening new phase of superstorms."</p><p>Yet another explanation for the warmer Atlantic Ocean could be changes in high and low pressure systems that caused surface temperatures to fluctuate, according to Michael Ventrice, a meteorological scientist at The Weather Company. <span>Ventrice</span> said a current called the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) may also have played a role - that current is slow moving, and changes conditions on a 20 to 50 year scale. At the start of the 2017 season, meteorologists were unsure whether the AMO was still in a warm phase, <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml">according to NOAA.</a> But if so, that could help explain this season's activity as well.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>NOAA</span></p><p class="caption">Irma after it became a tropical storm.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>A record breaking year</h2><p>Whatever the reason for 2017's seemingly endless bombardment of hurricanes, we have certainly seen records get broken this year.</p><p>This is the first time in known history that the Atlantic has had two storms with 150+ mph winds <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-irma-effect-on-hurricane-season-2017-9">raging at the same time</a>: Irma and Jose.</p><p>Maria went from a tropical depression to a Category 5 storm in two-and-a-half days, a speed that Mark DeMaria, acting deputy director of the National Hurricane Center, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/19/the-scariest-thing-about-2017s-hurricanes-they-got-really-bad-really-fast/?utm_term=.561a549a975c">told the Washington Post</a> is most likely the record for fastest intensification in the Atlantic.</p><p>This year we could also <a href="https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/910161903652970496">very likely set a record</a> for cyclone energy generated in September, according to Phil Klotzbach.</p><p>But this season isn't the worst we've ever seen, as much as it might seem that way. That distinction belongs to 2005.</p><p>That year, there were so many named storms that we ran through the whole alphabetical list of names (the letters  Q, U, X, Y, and Z are not used) and then had to run through the Greek alphabet, using Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta. Fifteen storms in 2005 were hurricanes, with seven being major hurricanes. </p><p>Five storm names were retired that year because of the devastation the hurricanes caused: Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma. We will most likely have at least three names retired after 2017: Harvey, Irma, and Maria.</p><p>Based on the Atlantic hurricane activity so far this year, we're not quite on pace to surpass 2005. But <a href="https://qz.com/1080620/hurricane-maria-jose-irma-harvey-is-hurricane-season-busier-than-usual/">as Molly Rubin recently wrote in Quartz</a>, if you look at both the Atlantic and Pacific simultaneously, the world is on pace for a new record number of named storms overall, outpacing 2012 and 2005.</p><p>After Maria dissipates, we're likely to enter a quieter period in the Atlantic, according to <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/marias-parting-shot-flash-floods-hammer-puerto-rico?__prclt=Fka2n0X7">Dr. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground</a>. But there's still reason to watch for new storms developing in the Caribbean, since water temperatures remain warm.</p><p>And even if we have a quiet week or two, there's plenty more time for storms to come. Hurricane season peaks on September 10, but the period of peak activity lasts though the middle of October. The season isn't over until November 30.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/latest-updates-maria-hurricane-jose-east-coast-us-puerto-rico-virgin-islands-tropical-storm-2017-9">Puerto Rico is completely without power after getting slammed by Hurricane Maria - here's where the storm is heading next</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

Here's why hurricane season has been exceptionally disastrous - and why there's probably more to come

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table full"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div>El Niño has returned to the Pacific Ocean, according to scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), but it is weak and late and not likely to deliver much precipitation to the <a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/event.php?id=82911">parched American West.</a></p><p>In an El Niño event, surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific become significantly warmer than average, influencing weather patterns and affecting fisheries along the west coasts of North and South America. The pattern sets up when easterly trade winds in the Pacific falter and allow giant waves of warm water to drift from the western Pacific toward the Americas. NOAA's <a href="http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/march-2015-enso-discussion-el-ni%EF%BF%BDo-here">Climate Prediction Center recently observed</a> sea surface temperatures about 0.6°C above average in the central, equatorial Pacific, one of the key indicators of El Niño.</p><p>The map above provides NASA's view of the conditions. It shows the ten-day average of sea surface height (centered on March 13, 2015) in the Pacific Ocean. It is based on data collected by the <a href="https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/ostmjason2/">Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason 2</a> satellite and analyzed by scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.</p><p>Shades of red indicate where the ocean stands above normal sea level-warmer water expands to fill more volume because of thermal expansion. Shades of blue show where sea level and temperatures are lower than average (thermal contraction). Normal sea-level conditions appear in white. Above-normal sea surface heights in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific indicate El Niño conditions, while below-normal heights there indicate La Niña.</p><p>When it is potent, El Niño can have a significant impact on weather and climate far from the tropics. Past events have brought significant snow and rainfall to the Rockies, Sierras, and other mountain ranges in the western U.S.; prompted mild winters in the northeastern U.S.; altered rainfall patterns in the South; and reduced the number (if not the potency) of land-falling hurricanes on the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. But because of its late arrival-El Niño historically peaks between December and April-and its moderate strength, this year's event is not expected to have much impact. It might amplify global temperatures, as El Niño years tend to be warmer globally <a href="http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/85000/85083/graph_gis_2014.pdf">than La Niña or neutral years.</a></p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table Full"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div>Bill Patzert, a climatologist at JPL, has not been enthused about the current El Niño conditions-he called it "El Wimpo" to a local newspaper-but he suggested that a larger pattern could be shifting. He pointed to a wedge of warm water off of Mexico and a horseshoe-shaped pattern of cooler waters in the western Pacific near Papua-New Guinea and the Philippines. He also noted that several <a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=43105">Kelvin waves</a> appear to be marching across the Central Pacific. All three features hint at changes in another Pacific cycle.</p><p>For most of the past 15 years, Pacific Ocean conditions have been dominated by a negative phase of the <a href="https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/pdo/">Pacific Decadal Oscillation</a> (PDO), a long-term pattern of variations in sea surface temperatures that scientists are still trying to understand. In the negative phase, temperatures are warmer in the interior of the Pacific and cooler along the North American coast. Negative PDO is often associated with droughts in the American West. In the positive phase, waters grow warmer along the west coast of North America and cooler in the interior of the North Pacific.</p><p>The signs have been pointing to a positive PDO. "This sea surface height map is a 'keep-your-fingers-crossed, there's-some-hope' image," Patzert noted. "That's not a forecast, but there is a glimmer of hope." NOAA's Northwest Fisheries <keyword id="41551" type="ENTERTAINMENT" weightage="100" keywordseo="science">Science</keyword> Center also recently noted that waters off the West Coast have <a href="http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/news/pressroom/documents/CCIEAPressRelease3-17-15.pdf">become warmer and less productive,</a> which could be another sign of a shifting PDO regime.</p><p>A major shift in the PDO could accelerate global temperature changes and affect jet stream patterns and regional weather. That <em>could</em> mean more precipitation in the American West and milder winters in the East, but there are no guarantees. There are also a host of negative impacts on eastern Pacific fisheries and marine life.</p><p>Patzert adds that neither El Niño nor a positive PDO are the answer to all of the water concerns in the Americas. "El Niño is a temporary blessing or curse," he said, noting that drought problems are affected by-but not necessarily caused or solved by-a change in the weather. "El Niño can't cure an increasing water demand due to population and economic growth."</p><p><strong>References</strong></p><ul><li>Jet Propulsion Laboratory (2015) <a href="https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/elnino/">Historical El Niño/La Niña Watch.</a> Accessed March 16, 2015.</li><li><cite>Nature</cite> (2015, March 5) <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/el-ni%EF%BF%BDo-arrives-later-and-weaker-than-expected-1.17064?WT.mc_id=TWT_NatureNews">El Niño arrives later and weaker than expected.</a> Accessed March 16, 2015.</li><li>NASA Earth Observatory (2014, May 14) <a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=83653">Is El Niño Developing?</a></li><li>NASA Earth Observatory (2013, September 12) <a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=82041">Pacific Waters Remain Stubbornly Stable.</a></li><li>NASA Earth Observatory (2009) <a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/enso.php">World of Change: El Niño, La Niña, and Rainfall.</a></li><li>NOAA (2015, March 5) <a href="http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150305-noaa-advisory-elnino-arrives.html">Elusive El Niño Arrives.</a> Accessed March 16, 2015.</li>f<li>NOAA Climate.gov (2015, March 5) <a href="http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/march-2015-enso-discussion-el-ni%EF%BF%BDo-here">March 2015 ENSO Discussion: El Niño is here.</a> Accessed March 16, 2015.</li><li><cite>San Gabriel Valley Tribune</cite> (2015, March 5) <a href="http://www.sgvtribune.com//environment-and-nature/20150305/el-nixf1o-is-here-but-its-too-little-too-late-to-help-the-drought">El Niño is here, but it's too little, too late to help the drought.</a> Accessed March 16, 2015.</li></ul><div class="feed-footer-wrapper"><div class="feed-footer"><h3>More from NASA Earth Observatory:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/TournamentEarth/?src=eorss-ann">Tournament Earth: Semifinals - vote now!</a></li><li><a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=85582&amp;src=eorss-iotd">In the Aftermath of Cyclone Pam</a></li><li><a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=85582&amp;src=eorss-nh">In the Aftermath of Cyclone Pam</a></li><li><a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=85576&amp;src=eorss-nh">"V" is for Volcano</a></li><li><a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=85567&amp;src=eorss-nh">Wildfires near Chile's Llaima Volcano</a></li></ul></div></div>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-nye-climate-change-solution-2014-11">Bill Nye Reveals Why Climate Change Is So Hard To Stop</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="AxOXZvcTr37R31H5kZhtz25mpv9kUfPu" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

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