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<ul class="summary-list"><li>North Korea fighting alongside Russia would be a serious escalation to the Ukraine war.</li><li>NATO and Western allies are facing pressure to respond — but have historically been hesitant.</li></ul>Western allies have options to react to the threat of North Korean troops in Russia, but are hamstrung by fears of escalation, military experts told Business Insider. On Monday, the Pentagon<a target="_blank" href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/article/3948100/pentagon-deputy-press-secretary-sabrina-singh-holds-an-off-camera-on-the-record/"> said</a> that 10,000 North Korean troops had been shipped to Russia for training and were likely to join Russian forces"over the next several weeks." NATO chief Mark Rutte said that some troops are already in Kursk, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_230105.htm">calling</a> the move "a significant escalation." He added that it is "yet another" contravention of UN Security Council resolutions. He said the bloc is "actively consulting" on what to do next. Despite these statements — and a similar chorus of condemnation from Western governments — few commitments have been made. On Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed frustration, saying that his allies' response was "not so loud as it has to be" in reaction to the North Korean threat,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-war-in-ukraine-russia-north-korean-troops-western-allies-response/"> Politico reported</a>. "Till now, we heard some reactions, but it is not strong enough," he added. <h2>A watershed moment?</h2>In itself, 10,000 more troops in Russia's war in Ukraine is not a game changer, Patrick Bury, a military analyst at the UK's University of Bath, told BI. The troops, many with no experience in real war situations, could also be of limited help. There is reason, however, to imagine the numbers could rise. North Korea has steadily ramped up its cooperation with Russia, reportedly supplying<a target="_blank" href="https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/north-korea-supplies-half-of-the-shells-used-by-russia-in-ukraine-d3fkhppjs"> half of all artillery shells</a> used in Ukraine in the last year. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has the fourth-largest standing army in the world, so there is no shortage of troops. Crucially, experts consider his regime to be receiving<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-military-officials-helping-russia-ukraine-win-for-kim-2024-10"> an economic and technological lifeline</a> in exchange. Edward Hunter Christie, a former NATO official and a research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, described the dangers of the partnership as "a much more serious test of resolve for the West than most people currently realize." He added: "There's a reluctance to act." This at least means there will be no rash decisions, he said. Christie, along with other experts BI spoke to, described a hesitancy and fear of escalation among Ukraine's biggest Western partners that amounts to alack of overall strategy. <h2>The West has some options — and a history of slapping them down</h2>When it comes to options for the US and Europe, "the tools are the same tools that have been there all along," Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com./news/articles/2024-10-28/ukraine-allies-face-limited-options-as-north-korea-troops-arrive?embedded-checkout=true"> told Bloomberg.</a> That includes the ad-hoc trickling through of aid packages like one<a target="_blank" href="https://kyivindependent.com/norways-pm-announces-new-500-million-euro-aid-package-for-ukraine/"> recently announced by Norway</a>. It also includes things that have long been ruled out, like allowing Ukraine to make long-range strikes in Russia with Western-supplied missiles. A bipartisan group in Congress has called on Biden to allow Poland to intercept Russian missiles in Ukrainian airspace, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4960374-biden-poland-air-defense-ukraine/">The Hill reported</a>. It's a move that NATO's former chief Jens Stoltenberg had earlier ruled out, saying it would risk the alliance "becoming part of the conflict," the outlet reported. South Korea, too, has said it is considering sending military aid directly to Ukraine. It's an unprecedented move that could prove highly beneficial, but which the state is hesitant to make,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-ukraine-weapons-big-difference-russia-north-korea-2024-10"> experts told BI</a>. Lithuania's foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, has also revived a suggestion made in February by France's President Emmanuel Macron of not ruling out the deployment of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/french-president-wont-rule-out-sending-troops-ukraine-2024-2">NATO troops in Ukraine</a>, in support roles. "We are still on the back foot, reacting to escalation instead of reversing it,"<a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/GLandsbergis/status/1848006509013225679"> Landsbergis wrote on X</a>. "Macron's ideas should now be revisited." That idea was earlier<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/everyone-angry-germany-series-screw-ups-leaks-scholz-macron-ukraine-2024-3"> publicly slapped down</a> by Germany's Chancellor, Olaf Scholz. Such a move "would free up a lot of resources for Ukraine," said Ann Marie Dailey, a geopolitical strategist at RAND. It would also send an important signal to Russia, she said: "That they don't have dominance on the escalation ladder." <h2>The escalation trap</h2>President Joe Biden's administration — along with much of Western Europe — has largely avoided actions that could be seen as escalating the conflict. The fact that now a serious escalation looks possible thanks to North Korea is an indication of the failure of that policy, Christie told BI. The US presidential election and the impending change of administration also puts a chilling effect on any dramatic changes in policy for the coming months, he said. "We live in an age of US-led hesitancy within the Western world, which just keeps on failing us, which just keeps on increasing the level of danger to the security of the collective West," he said. The bind for the Biden administration is not only in dealing with two nuclear states, but also that North Korea's belligerence could cause the conflict to spill over toward its southern neighbor and<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-muted-response-russia-north-korea-alliance-costly-ukraine-economy-2024-10">damage relations with China.</a> Western states are likely to have been quietly hoping that China might step in diplomatically and dissuade North Korea, Christie said. At some point, the West has to react decisively, he argued. Dailey told BI: "The problem with having a strategy of de-escalation is that if that is your stated strategy, you've already ceded every step on the escalation ladder to the enemy." In Bury's view, the West's problem is that it cannot even agree on its broader strategy, let alone decide how to implement it. "The broader point here is: the West, we're not doing the strategy," he said. "We're muddling through."

What can the West do about North Korea giving troops to Russia? Not much it hasn't already flinched from.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Brazil, India, South Africa, and Saudi Arabia declined to endorse Ukraine's sovereignty this weekend.</li><li>It came at the end of a Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland. </li></ul>Over the weekend, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rallied countries from around the world to support his call for Russia to end its invasion."Russia can start negotiations tomorrow if they pull out of our territories," Zelenskyy said at a peace conference in Switzerland, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cxrr1kyp04eo">BBC</a>.The conference is one of the most high-profile attempts to date to find an agreement on routes to peace.But there are some crucial problems. Russia wasn't there, nor was its key global backer, China.Nearly 100 countries did send delegations, including many of Ukraine's most important allies and major non-Western powers.At the end of the conference, about 80 signed a document blaming the war on Russia and affirming Ukraine's territorial integrity.But it was telling who didn't sign — Saudi Arabia, Brazil (which didn't formally attend but sent a delegation), India, and South Africa."Unfortunately, there are people who are still balancing," Zelenskyy said of the abstentions.He said Russia was seeking to divide the world against Ukraine — evidently with some success.Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to drive a wedge between those countries and the West, using oil, propaganda, and diplomacy.It has been especially effective in the "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sc/why-support-from-the-global-south-is-critical-for-peace-in-ukraine">Global South</a>" of non-Western powers whose wealth and influence on world affairs is growing.<h2 id="5c80b91d-831c-4174-98e8-dae7b6103ecc">Exploiting global divisions</h2>In the wake of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US assembled a coalition of countries to impose sanctions on Russia and isolate it diplomatically.But powerful non-Western countries refused to take part.Each of the countries that refused to sign the Ukraine document has strong ties with the US, particularly India and Saudi Arabia, which want American help in regional power struggles.But each has also maintained good relations with Moscow, with Putin using Russia's oil and diplomacy to cultivate relations.To offset Western sanctions, Russia sold oil at cut-price rates to India and Brazil and has worked closely with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-mohammed-bin-salman-power-broker-mbs-crown-prince-2023-12">Saudi Arabia</a> to control global prices.The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/05/russia-using-soviet-playbook-global-south-challenge-west-and-it-working">Chatham House</a> analyst Natalie Sabanadze wrote in May that Russia had succeeded in "bringing deep-seated resentment against the West to the fore.""Many states have relished the opportunity to defy Western pressure by helping Russia evade sanctions and reaping benefits for themselves in the process," Sabanadze continued.Putin has exploited long-standing grievances about Western imperialism and has renewed alliances forged during the Soviet era.<h2 id="e6b0addd-33f6-4653-ae60-234187bebda4">Russia renews Cold War-era alliances</h2>During South Africa's period of racial apartheid, tolerated by many in the West, the USSR opposed it and supported the African National Congress party, which has ruled since apartheid ended.The Soviet Union also helped India in its Cold War-era clashes with Pakistan.Some of those allegiances appear to have held firm.Over the past year, Russia has organized conferences with African and Latin American nations. It's seeking to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-xi-meeting-china-plan-supplant-us-working-apec-summit-2023-11">expand the BRICS group</a> of major non-Western economies, viewing it as a bulwark against Western powers.Russia has also seized on claims that Western support for Israel in its war against Hamas is evidence of hypocrisy.It's to Putin's advantage when those countries see Russia vs. Ukraine and Israel vs. Hamas as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-wants-world-think-wars-gaza-ukraine-western-plot-russia-2023-10">equivalent struggles</a>, both complex enough to avoid taking a side.Some analysts have also suggested a more cynical calculus, telling Business Insider that some countries are simply hedging their bets by refusing to back either Russia or Ukraine.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-mohammed-bin-salmans-biden-threat-appears-pay-off-oil-2023-6">Saudi Arabia</a> and India have both trod this middle path.<a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/smita_sharma/status/1802283282693865873?s=46&amp;t=itcSHGtE0ezHJx3yL_GcHA">Pavan Kapoor</a>, a senior Indian diplomat, said from Switzerland that his country didn't endorse the statement because "only those options acceptable to both parties can lead to abiding peace."For Putin, that fence-sitting is proof of success.

Key holdouts at a Ukrainian diplomatic summit are proof that Putin's diplomatic playbook is working

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US says that Chinese students are welcome to study in the US, but in arts, not the sciences.</li><li>Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said that Indian students can fill the gap in STEM fields.</li></ul>Chinese students are still welcome in the US, but less so in fields of science where sensitive tech could be involved, Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/live/zj6BmmyePX8">Speaking to the Council of Foreign Relations think tank</a> on Monday, Campbell said more students were needed in STEM fields because Americans were not filling out those spots in universities.However, the ideal international students for these fields are Indians, not Chinese, Campbell said. But he added that the US does need more Chinese students, too — just not in STEM."I would like to see more Chinese students coming to the United States to study humanities and social sciences, not particle physics," Campbell said.He also cited security concerns about letting Chinese students access sensitive technology."There's been careful attempts now across most American universities to support continuing higher education, but to be careful about the labs, some of the activities of Chinese students," he said.He added: "I do think it is possible to curtail and to limit certain kinds of access, and we have seen that generally, particularly in technological programs across the United States."<h2 id="57d14d2c-30b3-4ece-9b47-7abf82293431">Chinese academics have already faced Trump-era restrictions</h2>Back in the Trump era, there were policies in place to restrict Chinese access to developments in the US academic space — like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2021/08/10/biden-keeps-costly-trump-visa-policy-denying-chinese-grad-students/">denying visas to Chinese graduate students</a> based on the Chinese universities they attended.Former President Donald Trump also enacted the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/justice-department-china-initiative-trump-2022-2">China Initiative,</a> a program aimed at countering China's economic espionage and preventing trade secret theft. The China Initiative was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/justice-department-china-initiative-trump-2022-2">scrapped by the Department of Justice</a> in 2022 after critics said it promoted an anti-Asian bias.But even now, Chinese students say that they have been facing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/14/china-united-states-university-students-border/">extra scrutiny while entering the US</a>. The Washington Post, citing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.zhihu.com/question/638299464">online discussion forums</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/14/china-united-states-university-students-border/">reported</a> in March that Chinese students were questioned for hours at US border controls, or had their visas canceled without valid reasons.Chinese students make up the largest international student body in the US, with almost 290,000 students enrolled in US institutions in the 2022-23 academic year, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://opendoorsdata.org/fast_facts/fast-facts-2023/">Institute of International Education</a>.Indian students are the second largest group, with about 270,000 enrolled in the 2022-23 academic year. And Campbell said that there is space for this group to grow."I believe that the largest increase that we need to see going forward would be much larger numbers of Indian students that come to study in American universities on a range of technology and other fields," he told the think tank on Monday.<h2 id="b0a55766-8e6e-4ffd-8092-de27fd97dfcc">Worsening US-China relations</h2>Campbell's comments also come amid worsening <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/us-china-trade-war">US-China relations</a>, particularly in the tech space.In April, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/senate-passes-tiktok-ban-2024-4">Senate passed a bill</a> that, if signed into law by President Joe Biden, will force Chinese tech company Bytedance to sell video site TikTok.The White House also announced in May that it would impose tariffs on $18 billion of Chinese goods.In particular, new measures target Chinese electric vehicles, with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-joe-biden-hikes-tariffs-on-chinese-made-evs-2024-5#:~:text=The%20White%20House%20has%20announced,the%20US%20market%20are%20growing.">tariffs rising from 25% to 100%</a>. This provided relief for American EV companies nervous about the competition from cheap Chinese EVs entering the market.China, meanwhile, is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-squeezing-us-firms-apple-tesla-hard-painful-business-lesson-2024-3">squeezing the US tech companies</a> that operate within its borders. Apple is one of them, with its iPhone sales in China dropping 24% in the first six weeks of the year, <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-iphone-sales-china-down-huawei-vivo-smartphone-2024-3#:~:text=Apple%20is%20no%20longer%20the,Vivo%2C%20Huawei%2C%20and%20Honor.">according to data from Counterpoint Research</a>.And homegrown Chinese companies are taking a larger share of the domestic pie, aided by the state.China <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-iphone-ban-office-workers-worry-bosses-apple-huawei-2023-9">banned its officials from using iPhones</a> in September, a move that coincided with Huawei's launch of its Mate 60 Pro, a breakthrough phone whose capabilities rivaled those of the iPhone.Sure enough, unit sales of Huawei phones <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/apples-china-iphone-sales-plunge-24-first-six-weeks-2024-report-says-2024-03-05/">climbed 64%</a> in the same period iPhone unit sales fell by almost a quarter.The Council of Foreign Relations think tank and representatives of Campbell didn't immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider, made outside normal working hours.

A US diplomat says US colleges need more Chinese students to enroll — but in the arts, so they can be walled off from accessing sensitive tech

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Korean boyband <keyword id="11901404" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="bts" source="Orion">BTS</keyword> visited the <keyword id="11896084" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="white-house" source="Orion">White House</keyword> on Tuesday to push for an end to anti-Asian hate crimes.</li><li>The visit included a meeting with President Joe <keyword id="60973" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="biden" source="Orion">Biden</keyword> in the Oval Office to discuss the issue.</li></ul><a href="https://www.insider.com/grammys-bts-performance-video-butter-2022-4">Grammy-nominated Korean supergroup BTS</a> visited the White House on Tuesday, ramping up their boyband diplomacy from speaking engagements at the UN to political activism against anti-Asian hate crimes. The Korean septet's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-bts-korean-pop-group-anti-asian-hate-crimes-2022-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">visit</a> came on the last day of the Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander Heritage Month. President Joe Biden shared a minute-long clip of his private meeting with the group, which showed the seven men in matching black-and-white suits being ushered into the Oval Office. "A lot of our Asian-American friends have been subject to real discrimination," Biden told BTS. "Hate only hides. When good people talk about it and say how bad it is, it goes down."In response, BTS band leader Kim Namjoon, better known as RM, said he was thankful to Biden for <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/05/20/998599775/biden-to-sign-the-covid-19-hate-crimes-bill-as-anti-asian-american-attacks-rise">signing the COVID-19 Hate Crimes Act into law</a>."We just want to be a little help, and we truly appreciate the White House and the government's trying to find solutions," Kim said. Before meeting Biden, the group attended a press briefing where they spoke about how they were grateful for the opportunity to advocate for the cause. At the press conference, BTS member Park Ji-min, better known as Jimin, said the band members were "devastated by the recent surge of hate crimes" in the US. Meanwhile, rapper Min Yoongi, known by his stage name Suga, said: "It's not wrong to be different. I think equality begins when we open up and embrace all of our differences."The live press briefing was, per <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/31/dynamite-guest-white-house-bts-meets-with-biden-anti-asian-discrimination/?utm_source=feedly&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=wp_homepage">The Washington Post</a>, watched by more than 300,000 people at one point, which far exceeded the hundreds of viewers that usually tune in to such streams.However, not everyone was a fan of the boy band's appearance at the White House lectern.<a href="https://www.mediamatters.org/fox-news/tucker-carlson-attacks-bts-speaking-out-about-hate-crimes-targeting-asian-americans">Right-wing pundit Tucker Carlson</a> hit out at the group, playing a clip of their speech and sarcastically commenting: "Yeah, so we got a Korean pop group to discuss anti-Asian hate crimes in the United States. Okay. Good job, guys."The group's visit to the White House marks a new era in their transition from special diplomatic envoys to political activists taking a harder stance on social issues. The band <a href="https://www.insider.com/k-pop-stars-bts-condemn-anti-asian-racial-discrimination-violence-2021-3">tweeted their stance on the matter in March 2021</a>, condemning anti-Asian racism and calling for an end to violence against Asian Americans.Last July, the band members were also <a href="https://www.insider.com/south-koreas-president-taps-bts-presidential-envoys-for-un-meetings-2021-7">appointed as South Korea's presidential envoys.</a>They were then sworn in and <a href="https://www.insider.com/bts-presidential-envoys-diplomatic-passports-2021-9">given diplomatic passports,</a> with which they attended international conferences like the <a href="https://www.insider.com/bts-music-video-united-nations-k-pop-2021-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">76th United Nations General Assembly</a>, and <a href="https://www.koreaboo.com/news/bts-rm-visiting-met-speaking-two-years/">accompanied the South Korean first lady to The Met for an official visit.</a>This was the group's second outing to the UN, having earlier spoken out against domestic violence during a UN meeting in 2018.

BTS' White House visit marks the start of a new era in the group's boyband diplomacy — going from UN speeches to advocating against hate crimes

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="13290065" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="marie-yovanovitch" source="Orion">Marie Yovanovitch</keyword> said former President Trump's 2016 election win felt like a "slow-motion car crash."</li><li>In her newly-released memoir, Yovanovitch said she questioned Trump's adherence to "bedrock American principles."</li></ul>In November 2016, Marie Yovanovitch had decades of experience as a diplomat under her belt, and as the United States ambassador to <keyword id="11985141" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ukraine" source="Orion">Ukraine</keyword> at the time, she had a leadership role that allowed her to influence policy on the world stage.However, when she woke up in Ukraine on November 9, 2016, hours ahead of the most Americans, she turned on the television to see that CNN was reporting electoral victories in Ohio and Florida by then-Republican presidential nominee <keyword id="11914386" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="donald-trump" source="Orion">Donald Trump</keyword>, realizing that he would with all likelihood soon be the country's next president.In her <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Lessons-Edge-Memoir-Marie-Yovanovitch/dp/0358457548">newly-released memoir</a>, "Lessons from the Edge," Yovanovitch revealed how she was deeply affected by the election results, which seemingly clashed with many of the preexisting beliefs that she held regarding American leadership."As talking heads took turns explaining the significance of the returns, I felt I was watching a slow-moving car crash," she wrote. "Trump was going to be the next president of the United States. I couldn't wrap my mind about what that would mean for the US — and for Ukraine."Yovanovitch said that the thought of Trump in the White House "unsettled" her, as he didn't mirror the values that she felt were a core part of American identity."Trump didn't seem to share many of the bedrock American principles that formed the basis for our partnerships around the world and which had motivated me to join the Foreign Service," she wrote. "He didn't seem to appreciate how alliances with our democratic friends had kept the peace, defeated communism, and enabled us to become prosperous and secure."Yovanovitch then expressed her distaste with Trump's signature "Make America Great Again" slogan, which the then-Republican candidate used to rally disaffected voters to his campaign, pointing to economic and cultural issues that allowed him to attract support in critical swing and rural areas that tipped the race in his direction."Trump wanted to close our borders, halt inclusion, and shut us off from global engagement — in short, to undermine much that in my view made our highly imperfect nation great, not just to ourselves but to the world," she wrote. "It was because of America's greatness, indeed, that the <keyword id="6356001" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="international" source="Orion">international</keyword> community in Ukraine looked to the American embassy, where we represented a country of unmatched principle and power."In her memoir, Yovanovitch expressed that as a government official at the time, she certainly would not have disclosed her opinions about Trump or his candidacy, but she continued to hold firm to her personal beliefs.As she prepared to give a speech at the America House in downtown Kyiv that morning, she revealed that she appeared with a big smile and a "stiff upper lip" to conceal her "inner turmoil."In her role as ambassador, Yovanovitch's speech was not peppered with skepticism or unease, but with unity, which is what she sought to project in her public remarks that day."The election hadn't been called yet, and it didn't matter who won; it would have been the same speech," she said. "I focused on celebrating American democracy, on the importance of elections — every voice being heard, every vote being counted. I also sought to reassure Ukrainians that whoever won, America's strong bipartisan support for Ukraine would continue as it had for the twenty-five years since the fall of the USSR."In April 2019, Yovanovitch would be recalled from her position by Trump, who cited a lack of trust in her despite being told by a boss that she had "done nothing wrong," <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/11/us/politics/marie-yovanovitch-trump-impeachment.html">according to The New York Times</a>. In reality, a smear campaign to oust her had been engineered in part by Rudy Giuliani, who at the time was the personal lawyer for Trump.The ordeal became a major issue during Trump's first impeachment inquiry, where the House in December 2019 voted to charge the then-president with abuse of power and obstruction of Congress regarding his alleged efforts to solicit Ukraine's interference in the 2020 presidential election.He was acquitted by the Senate on both articles of impeachment in February 2020.

Marie Yovanovitch said Trump's 2016 presidential win felt like a 'slow-motion car crash': book

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is trying to transform the oil-rich Persian Gulf kingdom.</li><li>After a rocky start, he's gained confidence on the world stage and launched bold diplomatic shifts.</li></ul>Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is on a mission to transform his country.He's spending huge amounts of money to reduce Saudi Arabia's reliance on oil revenues and future-proof its economy. But he's also drawing attention for unexpected diplomatic maneuvers and cultural reforms in a still conservative nation.Here's how Saudi Arabia's effective leader got to where he is today.<h2>Crown Prince Mohammed didn't grow up expecting to rule</h2>Born in 1985 as the seventh son to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-king-salman-quietly-isolating-ill-health-mbs-awaits-throne-2021-12">King Salman</a> and his third wife, Fahda bint Falah al-Hithlain, the crown prince was not far up in line for the throne. Unlike his US-educated brothers, he went to King Saud University, where he studied for a bachelor's in law, before shadowing his father as a state minister.With limited responsibility at this point, the crown prince spent some of the $1.4 trillion the House of Saud is <a target="_blank" href="https://houseofsaud.com/saudi-royal-family-net-worth/">estimated to be worth</a> on yachts, residences, and art.<div type="image" title="A Pakistani man waits for transport in front of billboards showing portraits of Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (R) and his father and Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz displayed on a street ahead of the prince's arrival in Islamabad on February 15, 2019." height="2842" width="4000" msid="104245040" hostid="261" sizebytes="449854"></div>In 2015, when King Salman took the throne, he made the country's effective leader — his favorite son — deputy crown prince. Two years later, he became crown prince following the dismissal of Muhammad bin Nayef, the king's nephew. King Salman, 87, gave up the title of prime minister last year and handed it to Crown Prince Mohammed.The crown prince is a "workaholic" who spends 18 hours a day in his office, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/13/mohammad-bin-salman-saudi-arabia-profile-crown-prince">The Guardian reported</a>, but he's also known to relax by gaming, diving, or DJing with friends.<h2>'Rash decision-making'</h2>Crown Prince Mohammed has come quite a way since 2015.From entering what would become a disastrous conflict in Yemen that year, to the dramatic power play two years later when he ordered <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-mohammed-bin-salman-power-grab-2017-11">400 members of the Saudi elite rounded up</a> and detained in the Ritz-Carlton hotel in Riyadh, his early years as crown prince were characterized by a "spate of rash decision-making," Chris Doyle, the director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding, said.<div type="image" title="Ritz-Carlton" height="3712" width="5568" msid="104245041" hostid="261" sizebytes="939746"></div>Eight years on, the crown prince has grown into his role, Doyle said: "He is more experienced in terms of regional dynamics, his policies are more thought out, and he has decided that Saudi must fix its problems with its neighbors."Further purges of clerics, intellectuals, and royal-family members have helped cement Crown Prince Mohammed's grip on power."I think he's pretty much unchallengeable now, and that gives him a very stable platform to operate from," Doyle added.<h2>Pragmatic diplomat on the world stage</h2>Five years ago, the crown prince attracted global condemnation after the CIA concluded that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.insider.com/the-murder-of-jamal-khashoggi-2019-10">he'd ordered the assassination</a> of the dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.But after years of receiving the cold shoulder from global leaders, and increasing demand for Saudi oil amid turbulent energy markets, he's found a way back into global favor.French President Emmanuel Macron has hosted the crown prince, and Saudi Arabia recently <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dollarization-brics-saudi-arabia-argentina-egypt-ethiopia-iran-uae-2023-9">joined the BRICS bloc</a> of rising economies. US President Joe Biden, who called Crown Prince Mohammed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-fist-bump-mbs-mohammed-bin-salman-saudi-arabia-video-2022-7">a "pariah"</a> during his presidential campaign, even paid him a visit in Jeddah last year — which started with a fist bump instead of a handshake.<div type="image" title="MBS and Biden" height="2496" width="3086" msid="104245043" hostid="261" sizebytes="448456"></div>A visit to the UK by the crown prince that had been expected to take place later this month is now unlikely to happen for some time, possibly next year, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-04/saudi-crown-prince-s-planned-uk-visit-may-be-later-than-expected">Bloomberg reported</a> this week. The reason for the delay is uncertain – but Grant Shapps, the UK defense secretary, said "visits and timetables change all the time."What is now clear is that Crown Prince Mohammed has re-emerged onto the global stage, confident in pursuing a nationalist, Saudi-first strategy.He <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-mbs-rejected-biden-request-discuss-russia-oil-crisis-wsj-2022-3">refused Biden's request</a> to lower oil prices, even as critics said that he would be aiding Russian objectives in President Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine. In March, the crown prince made a surprise move again by normalizing relations with Iran, one of Saudi Arabia's biggest foes, in a deal brokered by China. Now even talks with Israel are on the agenda."He's trying to deliver a Saudi-first program, and that means that the kingdom isn't going to always roll over and align with the demands of Washington or other Western countries," said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/">Chatham House</a>, an international affairs think tank.The impact on energy markets by Russia's war on Ukraine has also emboldened the crown prince's diplomatic stance. Western leaders are having to be more pragmatic and transactional, and "a bit more sober about the importance of partnerships," said Vakil.Despite denying Biden a reduction in oil in March, at the G20 summit in Delhi last month the two leaders warmly greeted each other with a handshake and smile, a step-up from their awkward first-bump, per <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-saudi-crown-prince-mohammed-handshake-g20-c33e0f9bd2c6aff967a9d3d61529d9bd">The Associated Press</a>.<div type="image" title="Mohammed bin Salman and Joe Biden handshake" height="3021" width="4511" msid="104245145" hostid="261" sizebytes="969834"></div>When asked about his diplomatic moves in a recent interview with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.foxnews.com/video/6337519179112">Fox News</a>, the crown prince said that if there's an opportunity for prosperity, "then why not?"<h2>His legacy is tied to the success of Vision 2030</h2>On the economic front, the crown prince has devised a hugely ambitious plan called <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vision-2030-saudi-arabia-plan-future-proof-oil-economy-2023-8">Vision 2030</a>, with the goal of preparing his country for a post-oil future. Big spending on sports, entertainment, and development made Saudi Arabia the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-population-gdp-gulf-kingdom-taking-sports-tech-2023-9">fastest-growing G20 economy</a> last year.International criticism of his moves does not seem to bother Crown Prince Mohammed. As long as sports investment keeps boosting the Saudi economy, it'll "continue to do sports washing," he told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.foxnews.com/video/6337519179112">Fox News</a>."His leadership is underpinned by the economic and social transformation that he's supporting," Vakil told Insider.While he has a team of advisors, "it's very much connected to him personally," she added.But she said the success of Vision 2030 was not guaranteed."There's huge amounts of infrastructure investment needed for the kingdom to become the tourism hub that it is seeking to be," Vakil said. "And, of course, this is all taking place at a time of $100-a-barrel oil. The question will be, 'Will there be cuts and reductions if oil prices decline?'"<div type="image" title="The Line, NEOM" height="1080" width="1920" msid="104245147" hostid="261" sizebytes="176838"></div><h2>The leader paints himself as a liberal reformer, but experts warn of a darker reality</h2>The crown prince has presented himself as a reformer, pointing to his liberalizing reforms including allowing women to drive and enter the workforce and reopening theaters that'd been dark since the early 1980s following pressure from conservative clerics. Doyle said these changes would have previously been "unheard of" in the conservative Saudi society.However, concerns about human rights remain.Duaa Dhainy, a researcher at the European Saudi Organization for Human Rights, told Insider that "torture and ill-treatment of detainees, arbitrary arrests, and unfair sentences" continue to create a reality of repression in the country.She said that despite some reforms, Saudi women had been "subjected to an unprecedented campaign of arrests, torture, and sexual harassment that did not exist before MBS came to power."In May, three men from the Howeitat tribe were sentenced to death. The tribe usually lives in the area where Neom, the centerpiece of his Vision 2030 strategy, is being developed."Despite being charged with terrorism, they were reportedly arrested for resisting forced evictions in the name of the Neom project," <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/05/saudi-arabia-un-experts-alarmed-imminent-executions-linked-neom-project">the United Nations said</a>.<div type="image" title="Saudi human rights" height="683" width="1024" msid="104245148" hostid="261" sizebytes="117976"></div>Saudi Arabia has also faced accusations from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2023/08/21/they-fired-us-rain/saudi-arabian-mass-killings-ethiopian-migrants-yemen-saudi">Human Rights Watch</a> that hundreds of Ethiopian migrants and asylum seekers had been killed at the border by Saudi guards."The world must realize that the image that Saudi Arabia is working to promote is sports and academic washing, but the attempt to attract world stars and companies does not reflect the reality of this regime," Dhainy added.The Executive Office of the Crown Prince did not respond to a request for comment from Insider.

How Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman went from pariah to pragmatic diplomat

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The State Department relies on its Diplomatic Security Service to protect diplomats around the world.</li><li>The department and DSS are confronting more challenges amid increasing geopolitical tensions.</li></ul>The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 shocked the world and drew a scathing response from the international community.In the 20 months since then, the US has led an international effort <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pentagon-military-aid-to-ukraine-never-been-done-that-fast-2022-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">to arm and train Ukraine's military</a> and support its government economically and diplomatically. Meanwhile, half a world away, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-declassifies-images-chinese-intercepts-over-east-south-china-seas-2023-10" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the US faces increasing competition</a> with <a href="https://www.sandboxx.us/news/weapons-of-mass-destruction-strategy-iran-could-have-a-nuclear-weapon-in-14-days/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China</a>, which US leaders have condemned for its pressure on Taiwan, violations of international law, and political repression at home.US diplomats are at the tip of the spear for those efforts, living and working on the frontlines as they deal with friends and adversaries, at times in dangerous or isolated outposts. To protect those diplomats, the State Department relies on a little-known but highly capable agency — the Diplomatic Security Service.<h2>Protecting US diplomats in an evolving world</h2><div type="image" title="Diplomatic Security Service Mobile Security Deployments team" height="1333" width="2000" msid="105447842" hostid="261" sizebytes="157030"></div>As the State Department's law-enforcement and security arm, the Diplomatic Security Service has been <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/state-departments-diplomatic-security-service-protects-diplomats-2022-4" target="_top">protecting US diplomats at home and abroad since 1916</a>. The DSS is the US law-enforcement agency with the largest global footprint, and it works closely with governments around the world.With about 2,500 active special agents, the DSS is responsible for four main missions: protecting US diplomats and foreign diplomats in the US, conducting passport and visa fraud investigations, ensuring the security of classified US travel documents, and performing security background checks.The DSS has developed several initiatives to ensure the safety of US diplomats and missions amid an evolving operational environment.As part of its mission to protect State Department personnel, facilities, and information, DSS routinely conducts emergency planning and exercises to prepare for incidents at US missions overseas.Its Mobile Security Deployments, which are specialized tactical units, are on standby to respond to any heightened threats or emergencies at home and abroad.<div type="image" title="State Department Diplomatic Security Service Mobile Security Deployment" height="1500" width="2000" msid="105447845" hostid="261" sizebytes="155322"></div>Regional security office teams also develop and maintain an emergency action plan, which outlines the roles and responsibilities of individuals in an emergency or crisis, for each diplomatic mission. These plans are reviewed regularly to ensure that they are still relevant and reflect any changes in the operational environment.DSS agents <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/state-dept-diplomatic-security-service-agents-back-in-kyiv-ukraine-2022-6" target="_top">led the way when the US reopened its embassy</a> in Kyiv in May, and Insider understands that the DSS has created a robust security program tailored to that facility.The Overseas Security Advisory Council, which is part of the DSS, provides another layer of security. The council collects information from private-sector security professionals to gain insight from US businesses and institutions operating overseas about the security situation on the ground."Through the council, the State Department can exchange information in real-time with hundreds of private businesses, faith-based organizations, and other US entities," a State Department spokesperson told Insider.The DSS also manages the department's Foreign Emergency Response Team, an interagency team that is on call to respond on short notice to critical incidents worldwide.<div type="image" title="US flag embassy Kyiv Ukraine" height="1333" width="2000" msid="105447846" hostid="261" sizebytes="406058"></div>"The team deploys overseas to advise, assist, assess, and coordinate crisis-response activities. It may deploy in response to terrorism incidents and significant threats, to support chiefs of mission during large events like the Olympics, and during US counterterrorism exercises," the State Department spokesperson added.The US military, mainly through its Joint Special Operations Command, also has special-operations units on constant standby to respond to any terrorism or hostage situations abroad.Another DSS initiative aims to give diplomats and their families the tools to survive overseas. The Foreign Affairs Counter Threat training program is a five-day course that provides diplomats and their families with skills to enhance their security awareness and preparedness.As relations with <a href="https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/10/historic-tragedy-the-war-in-ukraine-continues-to-be-a-bloody-stalemate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Russia</a> and China have deteriorated, the DSS has had to adjust its activities to ensure it can protect US facilities in those countries and the diplomats and staff at them, but it's dealing with a growing set of threats from outside the physical realm.<h2>Proliferating cyber threats</h2><div type="image" title="Diplomatic Security Service computer" height="1333" width="2000" msid="105447847" hostid="261" sizebytes="104744"></div>Following a string of high-profile cyberattacks against government agencies and private businesses, US national-security officials are increasingly focused on cybersecurity.Insider understands that the State Department's IT network is under attack by malicious state and non-state cyber actors on a daily basis.Protecting the communications, data, and systems used by US diplomats is part of the DSS purview. The service operates a cyber-operations center staffed by a leading team of dedicated cyber operators who monitor diplomatic digital infrastructure and data on a 24/7 basis.Moreover, the DSS works closely with the Department of Homeland Security and the Office of Management and Budget to ensure the State Department meets the requirements for cyber operations laid out by federal regulations and legislative mandates.The DSS has changed how it protects US diplomats and classified information in order to keep pace with the evolution of technology and the cyber domain. It is pivoting to a "zero trust" security model in which it takes a "never trust, always verify" approach to all requests for access.As a result, the DSS is no longer looking to protect all its data at the same level but to adopt levels of protection that reflect the sensitivity of the data and its importance to the State Department's overall mission.In addition, Insider understands that the DSS is currently completing the roll-out of an advanced, multi-factor identity management system that would provide further protection against intrusions.Stavros Atlamazoglou is a defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He has a B.A. from the Johns Hopkins University, an M.A. in strategy, cybersecurity, and intelligence from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and is currently pursuing a Juris Doctor degree from Boston College Law School.

With crises brewing around the world, the US's diplomatic 'special agents' are sharpening old skills and learning some new ones

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="11985141" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ukraine" source="Orion">Ukraine</keyword> said on Wednesday that it officially broke diplomatic relations with <keyword id="11935793" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="north-korea" source="Orion">North Korea</keyword>.</li><li>North Korea earlier recognized independence of Moscow-backed separatist regions in eastern Ukraine.</li></ul>Ukraine's foreign ministry announced on Wednesday that it severed diplomatic relations with North Korea after the country recognized the independence of two Moscow-backed separatist regions. "Ukraine today breaks diplomatic relations with DPRK in response to its decision to recognize the so-called 'independence' of the temporarily Russian-occupied territories in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine," Oleg Nikolenko, a spokesperson for the foreign ministry, wrote in a <a href="https://twitter.com/OlegNikolenko_/status/1547263172297506818?s=20&amp;t=irXpaG1cTOFizPBDFI24jA">tweet</a>.Russian state media TASS <a href="https://tass.com/world/1479501?utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=smm_social_share">reported</a> earlier on Wednesday that North Korea had recognized the independence of eastern Ukraine's Donetsk People's Republic, citing separatist leader Denis Pushilin. In a separate article, TASS <a href="https://tass.com/politics/1479539?utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=smm_social_share">reported</a> that North Korea's ambassador to <keyword id="11894337" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword> presented a document with official recognition. In a <a href="https://mfa.gov.ua/en/news/zayava-mzs-ukrayini-shchodo-rozrivu-diplomatichnih-vidnosin-iz-korejskoyu-narodnoyu-demokratichnoyu-respublikoyu">statement</a>, Ukraine's foreign ministry called the move "an attempt by Pyongyang to undermine the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine," slamming it as "a gross violation of the Constitution of Ukraine, the UN Charter and the fundamental norms and principles of the international law." The foreign ministry said North Korea's recognition won't change Ukraine's internationally recognized borders and carries no legal weight. For some, the move sparked an opportunity to joke about whether there was any diplomacy between the two countries to begin with. "Ukraine severed diplomatic relations with North Korea. In my 26 years in diplomacy, I was never aware we had them," former Ukrainian diplomat Olexander Scherba <a href="https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1547277300978356231?s=20&amp;t=arns_aE2m9gTckLOmrIfSg">tweeted</a>.Foreign Ministry Dmytro Kuleba said in a <a href="https://mfa.gov.ua/en/news/zayava-mzs-ukrayini-shchodo-rozrivu-diplomatichnih-vidnosin-iz-korejskoyu-narodnoyu-demokratichnoyu-respublikoyu">statement</a> that Russia will "soon reach the level of isolation" of North Korea, which is already <a href="https://apnews.com/article/united-nations-general-assembly-coronavirus-pandemic-health-east-asia-north-korea-5eb25eb2eeca3cfe75063146d56241b4">extremely isolated</a> from the international community. Days before Russia launched its February 24 invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-recognizes-ukrainian-separatist-regions-independent-states-2022-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recognizing</a> Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states — sparking widespread outrage. Ukraine has <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/map-where-are-donetsk-luhansk-ukraine-russia-2022-2">fought rebels</a> in the two Kremlin-backed regions since 2014. US and Western officials had warned Putin would try to use the regions to stage a pretext for a full-scale invasion. Even before the full-scale invasion began, the Kremlin-backed rebels controlled roughly one-third of the region.Last month, Syria — a Russian ally — also recognized Donetsk and Luhansk as independent, the Associated Press <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-middle-east-syria-moscow-c5505e965d7d354b2b1f408385197829">reported</a>.Following major setbacks in the early days of the war, including failing to take Kyiv, the Russian military is gradually making progress in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk comprise the Donbas). In early July, Russia seized control of Luhansk. Russian forces now appear to be regrouping and reconstituting for further offenses in the coming days, according to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-might-recruit-prisoners-into-wagner-group-to-fight-in-ukraine-uk-intel-2022-7">a recent UK intelligence report</a>. Meanwhile, Ukraine is beginning to use Western-supplied equipment, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-says-killed-russia-general-using-us-donated-rocket-systems-2022-7">including HIMARS</a> (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) from the US, to strike targets in Russian-controlled territory.In an overnight address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-07-13-22/h_d673ebdd3aadd675fee9547ec6d3107e">said</a>: "The occupiers have already felt very well what modern artillery is, and they will not have a safe rear anywhere on our land."

Ukraine breaks diplomatic relations with North Korea after it recognizes independence of Kremlin-backed separatist regions

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Israel and Turkey announced they're restoring full diplomatic relations. </li><li>This came four years after they expelled their respective ambassadors. </li></ul>Turkey and Israel on Wednesday announced they were restoring diplomatic relations and returning their ambassadors to Tel Aviv and Ankara.After speaking with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid in a tweet said that Israel and Turkey "have decided to restore full diplomatic ties between our nations, including returning ambassadors." "This will contribute not only to deepening our bilateral ties, but to strengthening regional stability," Lapid added.And Israeli President Isaac Herzog <a href="https://twitter.com/Isaac_Herzog/status/1559865051552649217?s=20&amp;t=jIhbDk0HwiDALwShoTBwng">tweeted</a>, "I commend the renewal of full diplomatic relations with Turkey—an important development that we've been leading for the past year, which will encourage greater economic relations, mutual tourism, and friendship between the Israeli and Turkish peoples.""Good neighborly relations and the spirit of partnership in the Middle East are important for us all. Members of all faiths — Muslims, Jews, and Christians — can and must live together in peace," Herzog added.Ties between the two countries have been rocky over the past decade, and particularly since 2018 — when then-US President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jared-kushner-speech-jerusalem-embassy-opening-2018-5">controversially moved the US embassy to Jerusalem</a>. After 60 Palestinians were killed by Israeli forces on the Gaza border that year amid protests over Trump moving the embassy, Israel and Turkey expelled their respective ambassadors. In moving the US embassy, Trump formally recognized Jerusalem — a city at the heart of tensions in the Middle East — as Israel's capital and went against decades of US policy. Erdogan has been an outspoken critic of the Israeli government's treatment of Palestinians. In 2018, <a href="https://twitter.com/RTErdogan/status/996408779594969088?s=20&amp;t=8b6MigrxTCnPRnfEkMxjeQ">Erdogan decried Israel</a> as "an apartheid state that has occupied a defenseless people's lands for 60+ yrs in violation of UN resolutions," and said then-Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had "the blood of Palestinians on his hands."Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu on Wednesday told reporters that restoring full relations with Israel did not mean Ankara was "giving up on the Palestinian cause," <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-and-turkey-to-restore-ambassadors-in-full-renewal-of-diplomatic-ties/">the Times of Israel reported.</a>"As we have always said, we will continue to defend the rights of Palestinians," the top Turkish diplomat said.Cavusoglu also said that returning ambassadors to each country "is important to improving bilateral ties."

You Searched For "Diplomatic Relations" and got 9 results

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