<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span><a href="http://photo.gallery.youngester.com/2011/09/sukhoi-t-50-photo-world.html?m=1">Marina Lystseva via the youngster</a></span></p><p class="caption">A prototype of Russia's Su-57.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul><li><strong>Russia is struggling to fund its new Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jet, and have only ordered 12 of the jets while the US ramps up its sales and production of the F-35 - a direct competitor.</strong></li><li><strong>Specifically, the US and India have engaged in some preliminary talks about selling the F-35, when India was initially a key investor in the Su-57 project.</strong></li><li><strong>Russia's Su-57 is still in a theoretical stage with few airframes built and new engines and weapons integration sorely lacking, but the F-35 is ready to sell.</strong></li></ul><p><br />Russia recently grabbed a bunch of publicity for its new Su-57 fifth-generation jet by sending a pair of the supposedly stealth fighters to practice dropping bombs in Syria - but it looks like the F-35 could squash the program in its infancy.</p><p>Multiple <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-looks-to-have-deployed-su-57-to-syria-posing-problem-for-f-22-2018-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">experts recently told Business Insider</a> that Russia's program to acquire and field the Su-57 desperately needs an infusion of cash from an international investor like India. </p><p>Initially, India was a partner in the Su-57 program, and intended to help develop, build, and eventually buy scores of the advanced fighter jet pitched as a rival to the US F-22 and F-35, but those talks soured and Russia never saw the money.</p><p>Experts <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-su-57-syria-deter-scaring-nobody-2018-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">now allege</a> that Russia's deployment of the underdeveloped, underpowered fighters to Syria, a combat zone where they're hardly relevant as air-superiority fighters not facing any real air threats, was a marketing ploy to get more investment.</p><p>But while Russia rushes off the Su-57s for a deployment that lasts mere days and demonstrates only that the supposedly next-generation fighters can drop bombs, the US has made real inroads selling the F-35 to countries that might have looked at the Su-57.</p><p>The <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-us-will-send-a-diplomat-to-the-singapore-air-show-to-sell-us-arms-like-the-f-35-2018-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US sent F-35s to the Singapore Air Show in February as part of an international sales pitch</a>. President Donald Trump's administration has <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/trump-to-open-the-floodgates-on-selling-us-made-weapons-2018-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">loosened up regulations on who the US can sell weapons to</a>, and the F-35, once a troubled program, finally seems to have hit its stride.</p><p><span>"The Russian economy is a mess," retired US Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, now head of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, told Business Insider. "One of the things they can actually get money for is the advanced tech in their weapons systems." </span></p><p><span>But with the Su-57 seeming like a long shot with trouble ahead, and the F-35 now ready to buy, the Trump administration's expressed strategy of punishing the Kremlin's cash flow with military sales might bear fruit.</span></p><p><span>Asked if the F-35's export to countries like India posed a threat to Russia's Su-57 program, Deptula gave a short answer: "Yes."</span></p><h2>The Su-57's death blow could fall in a boardroom in New Delhi</h2><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>US Air Force</span></p><p class="caption">India wants a single-engine fighter jet. It could by the F-16 or F-35.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Japan and South Korea are both thinking about buying more F-35s, but most importantly, <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2018/02/report-India-requests-classified-f-35a-joint-strike-fighter-briefing/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Diplomat rounded up several reports</a> indicating that India's Air Force formally requested a classified briefing on the F-35A, and it may buy up to 126 of the jets.</p><p>At around $100 million per airframe, such a purchase would likely leave little room in the budget for India to buy Su-57s, which would require vastly different support infrastructure than the US jet. </p><p>"Having been to India and met with their Air Force leadership, while they are a neutral country, their culture is one that fits very well with English speaking nations around the world," said Deptula, who said the US trying to sell F-35s to India would be "worthwhile."</p><p>If India decided to buy F-35s, or really any Western jet, Russia would have it's struggling Su-57 and one fewer customer for it. Meanwhile, Russia has only ordered 12 of the Su-57s, not even enough for a full squadron.</p><p>So while jet enthusiasts have <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-puts-to-sea-first-f-35-aircraft-carrier-uss-wasp-2018-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">long debated who would win in a fight between the F-35 and the Su-57</a>, we may never find out.</p><p>The US's F-35 is a real jet - three real jets actually - that has significant money behind it to keep it flying in air forces around the globe for decades to come. Russia's Su-57 has no such security.</p>     <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/sea-craft-looks-like-a-plane-docks-boat-airfish-8-widgetworks-2018-3">This sea-craft looks like a plane, has a race-car engine, and docks like a boat</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

The F-35 could dismantle Russia's Su-57 'stealth' jet program without even firing a shot

Arumugam Chinnaswamy set up his makeshift booth selling firecrackers in a Chennai neighbourhood a week ahead of <keyword id="188" type="ENTERTAINMENT" weightage="20" keywordseo="Diwali">Diwali</keyword>, the Hindu festival of lights, with great expectations of doing a brisk trade.<br /><br />Yet a week later, he has been forced to pack up more than half his stock in the hope he’ll have better luck next year.<br /><br />“Four years ago, I sold firecrackers worth 800,000 rupees (US$11,288) on the eve of Diwali alone. This year, the sales have not even been a quarter of that,” said Chinnaswamy, 65, painting a grim picture that will be recognised by many in the Indian fireworks industry.<br /><a href="https://hp.teads.com/?utm_source=inread&amp;utm_medium=credits&amp;utm_campaign=invented%20by%20teads" target="_blank"></a><br />Chinnaswamy buys his firecrackers in Sivakasi, an industrial town in the southern Indian state of <keyword id="20154" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="tamil-nadu">Tamil Nadu</keyword> that produces more than 90 per cent of the country’s fireworks.<br /><br />Sivakasi’s dry climate has helped to make it the firework capital of <span class="text"><a href="https://www.scmp.com/topics/india" class="link-text">India</a> </span>and many production facilities in the town have been in the business for close to a century. For the most part, the industry has resisted mechanisation and still deals in handmade products. Its 1,100-plus manufacturing units provide jobs for 800,000 mostly uneducated workers and its diligent labour force have earned the town the nickname of ‘Little <keyword id="6355311" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="japan">Japan</keyword>’.<br /><br />But this reputation is under threat, struggling under the weight of an anti-pollution campaign, regulatory uncertainty and the arrival of cheap black-market Chinese imports. Irregular monsoons and a slowdown-induced cash crunch have not helped matters either.<br /><br />Industry figures estimate the Diwali sales of India’s 80 billion-rupee firecracker industry took a 30 per cent drop this year.<br /><strong><br /><span class="generic-article__body article-details-type--strong content--strong">A TOXIC PROBLEM</span></strong><br /><br />With pollution in Indian cities among the worst in the world, the government has come under pressure to do something about the nation’s toxic air – a problem that becomes more acute during Diwali due to the toxic fumes emitted when celebratory fireworks are set off. This Diwali, for instance, many areas in New Delhi recorded an Air Quality Index (AQI) of 999, the highest possible reading (the recommended limit is 60).<br /><br />That makes the fireworks industry seem like an easy target when it comes to meeting government air quality targets.<br /><br />Trouble began brewing in October last year when the Supreme Court banned the manufacture of traditional fireworks containing barium nitrate, a chief polluter. That decision put a rocket under the industry, as barium nitrate is cheap and is used in about 75 per cent of all firecrackers in India.<br /><br />Factories in Sivakasi responded with a four-month shutdown protest that decimated annual production levels by up to a third.<br /><br />Apparently realising it had overstepped the mark – and that enforcing the Supreme Court regulations would be next to impossible – the government stepped in to rescue the industry, offering its assistance in the manufacture of environment-friendly crackers containing fewer pollutants, but it was too little, too late.<br /><br />“The Supreme Court verdict was simply Delhi-centric with the vague idea of [cracking down on] urban pollution. It lacked any on-the-ground knowledge of the fireworks industry,” said Tamil Selvan, president of the Indian Fireworks Association, which represents more than 200 medium and large manufacturers.<br /><br />“Fireworks are low-hanging fruit for the anti-pollution drive as the industry is unorganised. Could the government or judiciary place a similar blanket ban on more pollution-causing industries like automobiles, plastics or tobacco?” asked Selvan.<br /><br /><span class="generic-article__body article-details-type--strong content--strong"><strong>CHINESE COMPETITION</strong></span><br /><br />The industry has also been hit by a flood of cheap Chinese firecrackers that are smuggled into the country on the black market.<br /><br />In September, the country’s federal anti-smuggling agency, the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence, cautioned various government departments that huge quantities of Chinese-produced firecrackers had reached Indian soil in the lead up to Diwali.<br /><br />But industry sources complain they have seen little action from the government to combat the problem.<br /><br />Legally, Indian manufacturers can neither import nor export firecrackers. The Indian firecracker industry is the second-largest in the world after <keyword id="1334" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="China">China</keyword>’s.<br /><br />Raja Chandrashekar, chief of the Federation of Tamil Nadu Fireworks Traders, a lobbying body, said low-end Indian-manufactured firecrackers such as roll caps and dot caps – popular among children – had struggled to compete with Chinese-made pop pops and throw bombs.<br /><br />“Despite our repeated complaints to government bodies, Chinese firecrackers find a way into India, particularly in the northern parts. This is severely affecting our business,” said Chandrashekar.<br /><br />While more Chinese fireworks might be entering India, the effect has been to undermine the industry, resulting in fewer sales overall.<br /><br /><strong><span class="generic-article__body article-details-type--strong content--strong">FIZZLING OUT?</span><br /></strong><br />The Sivakasi fireworks industry faces other problems, too. Not least among these is the use of child labour, which had been rampant until a government crackdown a few years ago, and the practice of some factories to operate without proper licences and with questionable safety standards.<br /><br />But despite the darker aspects of the industry, its role goes beyond merely helping Diwali celebrations go with a bang every year.<br /><br />“The livelihoods of over five million people who are indirectly involved in the business, in areas such as trade and transport, depend on the survival of the industry,” said Chandrashekar.<br /><br />That survival looks increasingly in question. Dull sales of fireworks have been reported in major cities including New Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore and Hyderabad, though exact numbers can be hard to come by due to the unregulated nature of the industry and unreliable numbers shared by manufacturers.<br /><br />So great has the resultant outcry been that some cynics even wonder whether the industry is struggling as much as it claims or whether it is part of a ploy by manufacturers to gain more government concessions and avoid any further crackdown.<br /><br />“These firecracker manufacturers lie through their teeth about the Diwali sales for self-serving motives such as tax avoidance. The overall business is healthy,” said Vijay Kumar, editor of the Sivakasi-based monthly magazine <em>Pyro India News</em>.<br /><br />“Though there was a 30-40 per cent shortage in annual production, all the manufactured products have been sold this year. No large stockpile is left with any manufacturer.”<br /><br />Still, regardless of the manufacturers’ motives, the result of the industry’s struggles has been that street sellers like Chinnaswamy have fewer fireworks to sell – and they are struggling even to sell those.<br /><br />Chinnaswamy says people are confused about the government’s anti-pollution drive and about what firecrackers are now legal and this has discouraged them from buying. Despite the government’s effort to promote “green crackers” he says these are too hard to come by to be a ready solution, at least for this year.<br /><br />“There was no clarity on what type of firecrackers, whether green crackers or otherwise, can be set off and at what time of the day. Many consumers even asked me whether or not the conventional firecrackers are totally banned while there was much misinformation floating about on social media,” said Chinnaswamy.<br /><br />Shaking his head, all he can do is hope that next year his Diwali goes with more of a bang.<br />

The explosive truth about the link between Chinese fireworks and India’s dim Diwali

<br />A few days ago, the <keyword id="2797629" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Institute-of-Health-Metrics">Institute of Health Metrics</keyword> and Evaluation (IHME), a US-based research institute, published a report on the global prevalence of <keyword id="6355291" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Cancer">cancer</keyword>. The <a href="http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/increase-lifestyle-related-cancers-over-past-decade-spotlights-critical-need-prevention">report </a>found a large disparity between the incidence rates of cancer among developed and developing countries. <br /><br />The countries with the highest rates of cancer were Australia and New Zealand, with 743.8 and 542.8 new cases of cancer per 100,000 people in 2016. They were followed by the US, with 532.9 cases. Over 17.2 million cases of cancer were reported worldwide in 2016. <br /><br />More notably, the IHME’s analysis indicated that <keyword id="3658" type="COUNTRY" weightage="20" keywordseo="India">India</keyword> ranked tenth among the countries with the lowest rate of cancer incidence in the world - with only 106.6 new cancer cases in 2016 for 100,000 members of its population. India was outranked by its regional neighbours - Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka - all of which boasted of lower cancer rates.<br /><br />These findings beg the question. For a country with such a large population, how are India’s rates of cancer so low? Is it an issue of genetics? Or is there something intrinsic to the Indian diet like turmeric that makes us less prone to cancer?<br /><br /><strong>It’s an issue of <keyword id="6355729" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="data">data</keyword> reporting</strong><br /><br />Interestingly, the list of countries with the lowest rate of cancer was topped by Syria, which had only 85 cases per 100,000 members of its population. Well, when you’re faced with the threat of being bombed on a regular basis, going to the doctor or reporting your cancer diagnosis seems like less of an urgency, doesn’t it?<br /><br />The fact that Syria tops the list could indicate why India even made the top 10 to begin with. The reporting of cancer cases in India leaves a lot to be desired. While we have <a href="http://ncdirindia.org/NCRP/index.aspx">a national cancer registry</a>, its most recent data seems to be from 2014. <br /><br />Further still, according to Dr Ajay Sharma, a New Delhi-based oncologist, record-keeping in hospitals, especially in smaller towns, is not upto the mark. “Data isn’t collated properly and as a result, a lot of India’s cancer cases aren’t reported,” Sharma says. <br /><br />Dr Sarika Gupta, a women’s cancer specialist at Apollo Hospital in New Delhi, also disagreed with the IHME’s assessment of India. “We have the third-highest rate of female cancer cases in the world after China and the US,” Gupta says. She also added that the symptoms in more than half of India’s cancer patients go undetected due to a shortage of adequate <keyword id="6370536" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="screening">screening</keyword> technology in rural or underdeveloped areas, or worse, a lack of awareness about the disease itself. <br /><br />According to <a href="http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY-Call-for-action-expanding-cancer-care-in-india/$FILE/EY-Call-for-action-expanding-cancer-care-in-india.pdf">a report by Ernst and Young</a> in 2015, there were only 2,700 mammograms, a breast cancer screening device, in India at the time - a fraction of the total number in the US. More surprisingly, there were only 120 PET-CT scanners, most of which were in Tier-1 cities.<br /><br /><strong>A larger problem</strong><br /><br />In addition to causing the under-reporting of cases, the lack of awareness about the disease translates into higher death rates. According to a study published in Lancet, a medical journal, in 2014, <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/hyderabad/indias-cancer-cases-far-lower-than-those-in-the-west-yet-death-rate-higher/articleshow/62550136.cms">around 70% of India’s cancer cases</a> lead to death due to lack of medical resources as well as the fact that most people don’t seek medical treatment until the late-stage symptoms start manifesting themselves. <br /><br />The EY report found that while the cancer incidence rate in India was estimated to be at 94 cases per 100,000 people, the actual rate was somewhere between 150-200 cases due to the deficiencies in data collection and screening. <br /><br />It isn’t far-fetched to think that the reporting and detection problems experienced in India could also be seen in other developing countries. Hence, it feels incorrect to assume people in richer, developed countries are more prone to contracting cancer. They just have more avenues to detect it and these countries have the systems in place to report and collect this data. <br />

No, India’s rate of cancer incidence isn’t among the lowest in the world

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>AP/Fareed Khan</span></p><p class="caption">Pakistan army troops.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul class="summary-list"><li><strong>Pakistan has readied its military and alerted its hospitals to stand by to receive wounded troops as tensions rise in anticipation of war with its nuclear rival, India. </strong></li><li><strong>A Pakistan-based Muslim separatist group carried out a massive terror attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, a contested region the two countries have already fought two wars over.</strong></li><li><strong>India and Pakistan both built nuclear arsenals to counter each other, and now appear on the brink of war.</strong></li><li><strong>Statements from China and the US indicate the two larger nuclear powers may already be picking sides in a potential fight. </strong></li></ul><p>Pakistan has readied its military and alerted its hospitals to stand by to receive wounded troops as tensions rise after its nuclear rival and neighbor India,<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/indias-modi-unleashes-military-on-pakistan-after-pulwama-terrorism-2019-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> unleashed its military to extract vengeance</a> after a terror attack in Kashmir left 44 dead. </p><p>India and Pakistan both claim the border region of Kashmir, but administer different parts of the disputed territory the countries have already fought two wars over.</p><p>A Muslim separatist group, called Jaish-e-Mohammed and based in Pakistan, took responsibility for the terror attack, but India has accused Pakistan of having official involvement. <div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Reuters</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi responded to the attack by saying his country's "blood boils" and that he had set the military free to respond however it saw fit. </p><p>Pakistan then wrote to hospitals on February 20 to arrange a plan for medical support in the event that fighting breaks out, <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/pak-army-begins-preparations-for-conflict-tells-hospitals-to-be-ready/articleshow/68104050.cms" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Times of India reported</a>. </p><p>The letter called for hospitals to earmark 25% of their beds for injured soldiers, to prepare for expanding their capacity to house patients, and to plan on shifting them around and away from the front lines during fighting, according to the Times of India. </p><p><span>"We have no intention to initiate war, but we will respond with full force to full spectrum threat that would surprise you," Army spokesman Major General Asif Ghafoor told Reuters from the city of Rawalpindi. "Don't mess with</span><span data-qa-component="highlight-text"> Pakistan</span><span>."</span></p><h2><span>Nuclear rivals on the brink</span></h2><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span><a href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Pakistan/117ec1fbc38241e4b69e0f271e5e4b68/7/0">Anjum Naveed/AP</a></span></p><p class="caption">A Pakistani-made Shaheen-III missile, that is capable of carrying nuclear warheads, is on display during a military parade to mark Pakistan's Republic Day, in Islamabad, Pakistan.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p><span>The UN on Friday "condemned in the strongest terms the heinous and cowardly suicide bombing" in Kashmir and called out </span>Jaish-e-Mohammed by name. </p><p>Pakistan banned Jaish-e-Mohammed in 2002, but on Friday, they knew exactly where to find the terror group. Authorities "took control" of the terror group in <span>Bahawalpur and appointed an administrator to look after its affairs, according to its government. </span></p><p><span>Jaish-e-Mohammed headquarters hosted a seminary with 600 students and 70 teachers, it said. </span></p><p><span>The Kashmir issue and other regional issues have kept India and Pakistan on the edge of war for decades, but in recent years things have taken a turn for the worse.</span></p><p><strong>Read more: </strong><em><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-rejects-nationalizing-5g-weakens-us-hand-against-huawei-china-2019-2" data-analytics-position="1">Trump's rejection of 'socialism' makes America weak in the fight for 5G against China's Huawei</a></em></p><p><span>Today, both Pakistan and India have grown in nationalist fervor, with online militias on Facebook and elsewhere lusting for blood and mocking each other's militaries and nations.</span></p><p><span>India and Pakistan developed nuclear arsenals to deter each other from fighting, but small cross border raids and violence have been common for years.</span></p><p><span>Furthermore, both Pakistan and India's nuclear-armed backers have taken sides in the conflict already. </span></p><h2><span>China and US picking sides?</span></h2><p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/B Mathur</span></p><p class="caption">A surface-to-surface Agni V missile during the Republic Day parade in New Delhi, January 26, 2013.</p></div><p></p></div></div></span></p><p><span>China tried to block the UN statement condemning Jaish-e-Mohammed and <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/china-indicates-it-wont-budge-on-masood-azhar-issue/articleshow/68118223.cms" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bizarrely downplayed the statement in its state-run media</a> while US National Security Adviser to President Donald Trump, John Bolton, <a href="https://twitter.com/AmbJohnBolton/status/1096743998625062912" target="_blank" rel="noopener">defended India's right to self defense</a> and called for Pakistan to crack down on the group, suggesting Pakistan provided safe haven for terrorists.</span></p><p><span>Pakistan famously hosted Osama Bin Ladin for years before a 2011 US raid took him out in Abbottabad. Iran blamed a terror attack that killed 27 members of its elite Revolutionary Guards on a Pakistan man in February. </span></p><p><strong>Read more: </strong><em><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-officials-sought-to-help-saudi-arabia-build-nuclear-weapons-2019-2" data-analytics-position="2">Trump's administration reportedly looked for ways to help Saudi Arabia build a nuclear weapon</a></em></p><p><span>India's Modi seeks re-election this year and has built a name for himself as a strong Hindu nationalist. Christopher Clary, an international affairs expert and professor at the Rockefeller College of Public Affairs &amp; Policy at the University of Albany, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/indias-modi-unleashes-military-on-pakistan-after-pulwama-terrorism-2019-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previously told Business Insider</a> the situation could quickly spiral out of control due to political pressure on both sides.</span><span></span></p><p><span>"We don't have that many countries with nuclear weapons that share a common border, so things can get pretty hairy," said Clary.</span><span></span></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/twin-brothers-chicago-helped-take-down-el-chapo-margarito-pedro-flores-wives-cocaine-traffickers2017-6">The wives of high-level cocaine traffickers reveal how their husbands took down 'El Chapo'</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

Pakistan readies military, hospitals for war with its nuclear rival India after Pulwama terror attack

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">Chinese troops march during the military parade marking the 70th anniversary of the end of World War Two, in Beijing, China, September 3, 2015.</p></div><p></p></div></div>Buried in the Himalayas in the Siliguri Corridor, also known as the Chicken's neck, Chinese and Indian military forces sit on the respective sides of their vague borders and entrench themselves for what could become a shooting war between nuclear powers.</p><p>Both Beijing and New Delhi see the conflict as a shoving match for dominance in the Himalayas, an age-old struggle between the two states that most recently went hot in 1962, before either state had perfected nuclear bombs.</p><p>But now a Chinese construction project aiming to build a road that can support 40 ton vehicle traffic threatens a critical passage in India and risks alienating New Delhi from its ally, Bhutan.</p><p>As China asserts sovereignty over the disputed border zone with the building project, Indian troops have entrenched themselves, according to <a href="http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2103881/dispatch-doklam-indians-dig-long-haul-standoff-china?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=EBB%2007.25.2017&amp;utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a dispatch from the South China Morning Post</a>. </p><p>"New bunkers are being built, the ground is being mined to pre-empt Chinese attack, machine-gun nests are being placed at strategic points, and soldiers are performing battle drills at least twice a day," according to the Post. </p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Wikimedia Commons</span></p><p class="caption">  The Chicken's Neck-also known as the Siliguri Corridor-is a narrow strip of land, 24 kilometers (15 mi) in width separating India from its northeast states. The area is marked in red. Note that the disputed region of Jammu and Kashmir is divided between India, China, and Pakistan (the colored areas represent the parts which are not under control of India).  </p></div><p></p></div></div>Both India and Bhutan have protested China's ambitious one belt one road program to undertake massive infrastructure projects across Asia, and now China seems intent on testing the two nations' resolve. </p><p>"They are trying to show Bhutan who calls the shots in the Himalayas. So we have to ensure we are capable of defending Bhutan's territorial integrity," Maj. Gen. Gaganjit Singh, who commanded a division in India's Northeast before retiring as the deputy chief of the Defence Intelligence Agency, told the Post. "We have to prove we can defend Bhutan and we are determined not to lose the current terrain and tactical advantage we have in Chumbi Valley."</p><p>At 9,800 feet in elevation, the Indian troops sit and watch the Chinese below as they push forward with their road.</p><p>"It's important for us to stop the Chinese here because if we fail, they will roll on to the Chicken's Neck and can cut off our northeast," said Singh.</p><p>Meanwhile, China, the numerically superior army, declared it would protect its border "<a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2103864/chinas-defence-spokesman-warns-india-not-take-any?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=EBB%2007.25.2017&amp;utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">at all costs</a>," and that the Indians should have "no illusions" about their resolve. </p><p>But while China sees this step as vital for asserting dominance and achieving a major construction initiative, and India sees it as a vital threat to its national integrity, neither side wants serious fighting to start. </p><p>"A hot war between India and China could squander all the gains from their extensive economic diplomacy, and that would work against each country's interests in a big way," Michael Kugelman, the Deputy Director of the Wilson Center's Asia Program, <a href="https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/asia/border-dispute-china-wont-back-india-cant-back-down-1095?utm_source=Join+the+Community+Subscribers&amp;utm_campaign=eb69641594-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_07_25&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_02cbee778d-eb69641594-122507317" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">told The Cipher Brief</a> of the conflict. </p><p>Hopefully at the upcoming summit between Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, (BRICS) the two sides can work out a way to end the conflict while saving face, before we see two nuclear-armed nations with a combined population of nearly 3 billion go to war. </p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/secret-bunkers-nuclear-missile-war-hydrogen-fallout-radiation-attack-2017-6">These are the secret bunkers government officials will go to in the event of an attack</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="1uamxyYjE6133KHdmppfb43JIovzjTW0" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

China and India are edging closer to a war in Asia that neither can back down from

In the last few days, TV channels and newspaper headlines have been screaming out not-so-pleasant headlines of IS men arrests, murders, suspicious activities, intelligence warnings of threat and tightened security across several cities. All of this is not without a reason. In fact, it would be correct to say that India is reeling under greater terror threat than any time in the past as R-Day approaches. Flurry of intelligence reports have been warning us of possible <keyword id="6406102" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Terror-attacks">terror attacks</keyword> in the country for the past few days. Two men on the radar are Mr Modi and Mr Francois Hollande, the Chief Guest of our R-Day celebrations. Of course, India’s warming up to the French President in the aftermath of Paris attacks has not gone down very well with IS terrorists, who are now on the prowl waiting for the perfect moment to strike.<br />
 <br /> So, we are doubly under threats this time around– from Pak-based terrorists and <keyword id="174501" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="ISIS">ISIS</keyword>. In the wake of nationwide alert to stay aware and safe, here’s why stepping out of your homes this <keyword id="6416557" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Republic-day">Republic Day</keyword> would not be a good idea at all:<br />
 <br />
<u>SEVERAL ISIS SYMPATHISERS ARRESTED</u><br />
 <br />
Nearly twenty people with suspected Islamic State links were nabbed from across the country in just a single day on Friday. This was the biggest crackdown on ISIS sympathizers in India. Six men, including a chemical engineering dropout, detained by the National Investigation Agency in Karnataka is suspected to have links with the Islamic State. According to reports, the raids were carried out after Indian intelligence agencies received tip-off from the CIA. Cops recently arrested four more men in Uttarakhand last Wednesday on suspicion of planning an attack in Delhi. Security officials said the four had been under surveillance for several months after their online activities drew suspicion, including contacts with people in territory in Iraq and Syria controlled by the Islamic State group. Police said the men had also been planning strikes in Haridwar, where thousands of devotees are now gathered for the Ardh Kumbh festival.<br />
 <br />
<u>SUSPICIOUS ACTIVITIES</u><br />
 <br /> In Panaji, Goa Police have stepped up security in the state and were investigating a postcard received by the State Secretariat and warning to harm Prime Minister <keyword id="6354477" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Narendra-Modi">Narendra Modi</keyword> and Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar. In Mumbai, the police are yet to trace six mysterious paragliders who were seen near the city’s coast on January 13. Authorities said they have taken the incident seriously because of a 2010 intelligence report that the terrorist group <keyword id="53557" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lashkar-e-Taiba">Lashkar-e-Taiba</keyword> had procured 50 paragliders from Europe and was conducting a training in Pakistan to launch an aerial attack. Authorities in Madhya Pradesh are on alert after a suspected terrorist named Syed Ahmed escaped from police custody by jumping off a running train on Wednesday night at Hoshangabad, about 70 km south east of Bhopal.<br />
 <br />
<u>ENEMY’S FRIEND IS ALSO AN ENEMY</u><br />
 <br /> French President Francois Hollande is the Chief Guest of the republic day celebrations at a time when France is engaged in an air-strike against ISIS following the <keyword id="2677655" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Paris-terror-attacks">Paris terror attacks</keyword>. Extra paramilitary forces were deployed in New Delhi, Mumbai and Bengaluru, where the French consulate received a letter warning against its president’s presence at India’s Republic Day celebrations. Police are investigating the source of the letter which said Francoise Hollande should cancel his trip to India beginning Sunday. Bangalore’s additional commissioner of police, Chengal Reddy, told reporters that the letter--written in poor English and mentioning al Qaeda--has still not been ruled out as a hoax.<br />
 <br />
<u>CARJACKING FOR TERROR PURPOSES</u><br />
 <br />
Delhi Police on Friday issued an alert after the driver of a taxi hired by three unidentified persons from Pathankot was found dead in Kangra district in Himachal Pradesh, in the aftermath of the airbase attack. The taxi driver, identified as Vijay Kumar, a resident of Gaggal village in Kangra district, was found dead on Wednesday at the Kalta bridge in Kangra and his taxi missing, police said. In a similar incident, on Tuesday night an SUV belonging to a top ITBP official had gone missing from his residence in Noida. These activities are suspected to have been done by terror outfits like ISIS who are notorious for car-bomb attacks in Iraq and Syria could use them as potential weapons to target to carry out blasts in crowded places.<br />
 <br />
<u>POSSIBILITY OF LONE WOLF ATTACK</u><br />
 <br />
Mohammad Sirazudin, an executive of the Indian Oil Corporation, who was arrested in Jaipur in December 2015 for allegedly spreading ISIS activities online and trying to recruit Indian youths in the Middle-East terrorist group, was allegedly on the verge of turning into a ‘lone wolf’. With increased activities of ISIS supporters online, the government has taken the threat of this dreaded terror group seriously and asked states to remain alert against the possibility of ‘lone wolf attack’ in the country. The threat of ISIS was discussed threadbare at a meeting of top officials of central intelligence and investigative agencies and police of 13 states on Saturday which was chaired by Home Minister Rajnath Singh. <br />

This
Republic Day is the most dangerous it has been in a long while!

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div>The Iranian foreign minister might be <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/top-iranian-nuke-negotiator-ordered-to-stop-screaming-at-john-kerry-2015-2">habitually screaming at his American counterpart</a>, but that they're at least scheduled to renew talks in Geneva this week raises the possibility that a final nuclear deal could be in the offing.</p><p>Time is running out, after all: Barring another extension, the Joint Plan of Action, signed in Geneva in November 2013, will expire July 1. The sides <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-30180968">planned on reaching a "political agreement" by March 1</a>.</p><p>And as the Brookings Institution's Suzanne Maloney <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/why-iran-nuclear-talks-are-deadlocked-2015-1">argued in a January 21 article</a>, the talks have been a disappointment even for some supporters of the negotiating process, with Iran showing little flexibility on key issues.</p><p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">The urgency of the negotiating round has reportedly led to the US softening its position on a crucial demand. </span></p><p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div>This week, controversy erupted when the Israeli government allegedly leaked supposed details of the American negotiating stance, which included assertions the US would be willing to let Iran keep 6,500 uranium enrichment centrifuges under a final agreement. </span></p><p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/18/world/fear-of-israeli-leaks-fuels-distrust-as-us-and-iran-hold-nuclear-talks.html">A New York Times report</a> on February 17 stated the US offered to let Iran keep 4,500 centrifuges in an offer made last fall, but that "t</span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">here is now talk of raising that figure to 6,500 centrifuges." </span></p><p>This isn't that important, at least according to an anonymous American official that quoted by the Times. </p><p>"They tell part of the story, like how many centrifuges we might consider letting the Iranians hold," the official said in an apparent reference to the alleged Israeli leaks. "What they don't tell you is that we only let them have that many centrifuges if they ship most of their fuel out of the country."</p><p><span><span>The thinking on display here is that stockpile control is <em>the</em> key to a nuclear deal. </span></span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">US negotiators believe restrictions on enrichment and rigorously enforced enriched uranium stockpile limits - along with other caveats, like the aforementioned requirement that Iran ship its enriched uranium to Russia, where it will be converted to non-weaponizable fuel rods - will be able to prevent Tehran from accumulating enough high-enriched uranium to construct a nuclear weapon undetected.</span></p><p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div></span></p><p><span>By this logic, the problem with Iran's nuclear program isn't its 19,000 centrifuges, secretive and heavily guarded nuclear facilities, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/20/world/middleeast/un-says-iran-still-evades-queries-on-possible-nuclear-work.html?smid=tw-share&amp;_r=0">weaponization</a> and advance centrifuge research, Revolutionary Guards Corps involvement, ballistic missile program, and plutonium reactor. </span></p><p><span>Instead, the problem at hand is the much more narrow and solvable issue of preventing Iran from having enough plutonium or high-enriched uranium needed to actually construct a bomb within a certain time limit.</span></p><p>So, the latest reports suggest Iran would be allowed to keep between 4,500 and 6,500 centrifuges. According to Olli Heinonen, a senior fellow at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and <keyword id="6356001" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">International</keyword> Affairs and a former deputy director general for safeguards at the International Atomic Energy Agency, a<span> nuclear weapon requires 5,000 separative work units (SWU) of uranium enrichment</span>. (SWU is a standard unit for <a href="http://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.cfm?id=Separative%20work%20unit">measuring the effort</a> needed to separate uranium isotopes.)</p><p>Each Iranian centrifuge produces 1 SWU a year, although the country has 1,000 more advanced machines capable of producing 5 SWU. So it would take Iran about six months to create a single nuclear weapon with 10,000 centrifuges if it had no previous stockpile of low or high-enriched uranium to bump up to weapons grade. At the moment, Iran has over <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/08/us-iran-nuclear-uranium-idUSKBN0IS0AO20141108">8 metric tons of low-enriched uranium</a>, shortening its path to a bomb.</p><p>Interestingly, one of Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei's stated "red lines" in negotiations is 190,000 SWU a year (No. 8 below).</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>The reasoning for letting Iran have <span>those 4,500-6,500 centrifuges in any deal is that they wouldn't be numerous or efficient enough to produce nuclear weapons faster than international monitors could detect them. Just keep enriched uranium stocks below a certain level, the thinking goes, and the Iranian nuclear crisis is solved as Tehran keeps it nuclear infrastructure while its economy is open to the rest of the world.</span></p><p><strong>However, there's one glaring problem with this train of thought: Heinonen told Business Insider that "there's no technical reason" for Iran to possess 5,000 centrifuges. <span style="line-height: 1.5em;"> </span></strong></p><p>That said, there are three primary reasons why Iran would keep enriching uranium after a nuclear deal: securing its enriched uranium stocks for civilian reactors, maintaining its mastery of the nuclear fuel cycle, and/or remaining on the threshold of a nuclear weapons capability (or actually obtaining it) so as to further project its power throughout the region.</p><p>Only the last of these requires nearly as many centrifuges as Iran is asking for and what US negotiators are reportedly willing to give.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div></p><h3>Reason 1 for enrichment: Getting enriched uranium for a civilian reactor</h3><p>If Iran were really building a nuclear program for purely civilian reasons, it could just purchase all of its enriched uranium from a foreign seller. The price per SWU has gradually increased in recent years, but not to the point where buying foreign enriched uranium is more expensive than say, building an expensive indigenous program that may result in diplomatic isolation and crippling international economic sanctions.</p><p>Most countries have figured that out by now. There just aren't that many places with their own domestic uranium enrichment infrastructure.</p><p>Russia is the global enrichment leader, producing 26 million SWU a year, according to the <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle/Conversion-Enrichment-and-Fabrication/Uranium-Enrichment/">World Nuclear Association</a><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">. Germany, the Netherlands, the UK, and French chip in another 20 million or so combined, largely thanks to Urenco, the venerable European multi-national widely considered to be the civilian industry leader. Japan, Brazil, and Argentina all have small enrichment facilities. India enriches uranium for its nuclear submarine program, and North Korea has its own illicit program.</span></p><p><span><span>The United States has dozens of civilian nuclear reactors. But the US actually imports the vast majority of its enriched uranium and has no currently operating industrial scale enrichment facilities, Heinonen says. </span></span></p><p><span><span>Here's the Department of Energy's breakdown on the origin of civilian use enriched uranium since 1994. Ever since the late 1990s, US power plants have acquire most of their enriched uranium from overseas:</span></span></p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div><p></p></div></div>The US isn't the only country with an extensive nuclear infrastructure and no active enrichment program. South Korea has 23 nuclear power plants, but is <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-O-S/South-Korea/">prohibited from developing an indigenous enrichment capability</a> under a bilateral agreement with the US.</p><p>Which brings things back to Iran. As Heinonen explained, Iran would need somewhere on the order of 200,000 centrifuges (i.e., near Khamenei's red line amount) to domestically supply enriched uranium for the Bushehr reactor. Otherwise, Russia could to continue to fill stocks.</p><p><strong><div class="KonaFilter image-container"><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></strong></p><p>"Iran has this long-term contract from Russia so they don't need to do enrichment themselves," Heinonen, the Harvard fellow, told BI. "And if they did do it themselves they need many more centrifuges."</p><p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Significantly, there's no reason Iran absolutely needs to enrich its own uranium. The price of an SWU's worth of enrichment has gone up slightly over the past few years, but the estimated $27 million to fund Khameini's demand of 190,000 SWUs pales in comparison to the </span><a href="http://www.cfr.org/iran/sanctions-affect-irans-economy/p28329">heavy economic cost of the sanctions</a><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"> Iran has had to endure as a result of its program.<br><br /></br></span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>And uranium itself has actually <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle/Uranium-Resources/Uranium-Markets/"><em>decreased</em></a> in price lately, even if the price per SWU is creeping incrementally upward. </p><p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Basically, global enrichment capacity far outstrips demand.</span></p><p>"There's an oversupply of enrichment services," Heinonen said. "At this point in time, it's almost double [the global] enrichment capacity compared to the needs."</p><p>At the end of the day, as the World Nuclear Association <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-G-N/Iran/">notes</a>, <span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Iran's major project developing uranium enrichment capability "is heavily censured by the UN, since no commercial purpose is evident."</span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"> </span></p><h3>Reason 2: Mastery of the fuel cycle</h3><p>Heinonen sees one practical reason for Iran to keep its centrifuges: keeping up its mastery of the nuclear fuel cycle even under a greatly reduced program. "I think they want to be kind of a threshold state, where they can take a step either for peaceful or non-peaceful purposes," Heinonen says. "In order to maintain your skills you need to work with [the centrifuges] ... you cannot just shut them down."</p><p>Keeping up this nuclear expertise would conceivably require a "demonstration scale" cascade where Iran runs "several parallel cascades, to demonstrate that you can handle a great number of centrifuges," says Heinonen. </p><p>Nevertheless, that doesn't explain why Iran would need 4,500 to 6,500 centrifuges. According to Heinonen, a "demonstration cascade" can be maintained with only 1,000-2,000 centrifuges.</p><h3>Reason 3: Staying on or surpassing the nuclear threshold</h3><p>Importantly, allowing Iran to keep 4,500-6,500 centrifuges would be to let Tehran remain within striking distance of a nuclear weapon.</p><p>The reported number of centrifuges allowed is thousands more than what Iran would need to maintain some minimum degree of nuclear enrichment expertise. Furthermore, 4,500-6,500 centrifuges would place Iran on the cusp of what it needs to build a nuclear weapon in between six months and a year. That would allow them to maintain the threat of short-term nuclear breakout - and the amount of time assumes Iran has no hidden uranium stockpiles or enrichment facilities.<br><br><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div>There's a larger principle at stake, though. A deal including 4,500 centrifuges or more would make Iran one of the few countries in the world to have its uranium enrichment formally legalized under an international treaty.</br></br></p><p>Strikingly, this wouldn't happen as the result of an alliance with the US. The US has a <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/04/AR2008090401614.html">nuclear cooperation treaty</a> with India, for instance, but Delhi is a longstanding US economic and political ally and a fellow democracy. And this wouldn't be a reward for Iran's virtuous behavior on the world stage. Iran's uranium enrichment is banned under <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Security-Council-Resolutions-on-Iran">several UN Security Council resolutions</a>. Tehran is still a <a href="http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2013/224826.htm">US-listed state sponsor of terrorism</a>, and its assistance is responsible for Bashar al-Assad's regime hanging on in Syria.</p><p>Under an agreement that allows Iran to keep thousands of centrifuges, Iran will be given a greenlight to enrich uranium - something it has no practical need to do - thanks to decades of recalcitrance, single-minded policy dedication, and <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/sep/25/iran-secret-underground-nuclear-plant">outright deceit</a>. It would be a historic and nearly unprecedented accomplishment, and one with unknown implications for the future of nuclear proliferation.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-headphones-tricks-2015-2">14 things you didn't know your iPhone headphones could do</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="o2OGM3czpWcydnvhjbkDBd6feXPuExiD" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

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