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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US economy looks strong, judging by GDP growth, profits, productivity, and the labor market.</li><li>JPMorgan Asset Management is upbeat heading into 2025, but a major risk looms.</li></ul>It looks like the most obvious threats to the economy have been neutralized for now, but a veteran strategy chief fears that an under-the-radar risk poses a threat to the global expansion.This economic backdrop bears little resemblance to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-stagflation-disaster-high-prices-inflation-high-unemployment-2022-3">so-called stagflationary environment</a> of 2022, a year where <a target="_blank" href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-change-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/">US GDP shrank in the first two quarters</a> as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-price-growth-june-2022-7">inflation hit multi-decade highs</a>.Fast forward to late 2024, and GDP has grown by at least 3% for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product">three of the last four quarters</a> and is expected to do so again in the third quarter, according to JPMorgan Asset Management. The firm estimates that consumer spending, which <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCERE1Q156NBEA">accounts for about two thirds of US GDP</a>, also likely accelerated to 3.5% on an inflation-adjusted basis last quarter, up from 2.8% in Q2.Meanwhile, price growth is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">remarkably close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target</a>, which allowed the US central bank to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">start the interest rate easing cycle with a bang</a> in mid-September.Perhaps most encouraging is that the labor market appears to be healthy. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">Job additions easily exceeded estimates</a> in September, and the unemployment rate is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf">in check at 4.1%</a>.Corporate earnings growth, productivity growth, and business fixed investment all seem to be headed in the right direction as well. The same is true of wage growth, which JPMAM found has topped inflation for the last 17 months, underpinning solid consumer spending in the process.These signals have given David Kelly, JPMAM's chief global market strategist, great confidence.The economic outlook "seems remarkably benign with solid economic growth, low unemployment, resilient profits, a slow drift down in inflation, and gradual easing from the Federal Reserve," Kelly said in written commentary on October 28. The market veteran added that there aren't "signs of an imminent change in the economy's path."<h2 id="59ff7859-06ea-46e1-a918-af568c5cb476">A 'tariff'ying risk</h2>That seemingly picturesque backdrop helps explain why the S&amp;P 500 has risen 22% this year and is near record highs. But Kelly believes investors can't let their guards down."Investing has always been as much about risk as about return, and the key to long-term success is being prepared for both," Kelly said in his commentary.Kelly said to be wary of elevated stock valuations — which he and his colleagues at JPMAM <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-strategy-real-estate-stocks-bonds-portfolio-jpmorgan-asset-management-2024-10">said last week</a> could put a lid on future returns — and the market's heavy tilt toward mega-cap growth companies, even though <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cheap-stocks-to-buy-strong-growth-market-outlook-garp-bmo-2024-10">that has been changing</a> in recent months.However, neither of those overhangs is more serious than the potential fallout from a domestic or international political shock. When asked last week about the biggest risk to his long-term outlook, Kelly quickly arrived at an answer: a fierce global trade war marked by escalating tariffs."No matter which set of economists you have sitting here, every one of 'em will tell you that tariffs are not a good idea," Kelly said at JPMAM's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-strategy-real-estate-stocks-bonds-portfolio-jpmorgan-asset-management-2024-10">annual long-term capital market assumptions conference</a> on October 21. "You can use it as a threat, though it's kind of like a nuclear threat — the whole point is, if you actually end up using it, you kind of screwed up somewhere."Economists usually disapprove of tariffs, which are taxes on foreign imports, in most cases. Tariffs promise to generate revenue for the home country while aiding domestic industries, but they can drive up consumer prices and prompt counter-tariffs that lead to trade wars.In a worst-case scenario, tariffs would result in higher prices and lower growth due to the waste and inefficiency that they create while hurting importers and exporters in both countries."A trade war could cause us to push up our inflation forecast and push out our growth forecast at the same time," Kelly said at the conference.While Democrats and Republican presidents have leaned on tariffs in the past, it's former President Donald Trump who's <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/business/4945577-trump-tariffs-economy-trade/">promising to implement substantial tariffs</a> in this election cycle.While some say the threat of aggressive tariffs would help the US secure better trade terms, others are skeptical — if not outright scared.Such tariffs <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-trump-harris-economy-inflation-stock-market-volatility-risk-orlik-2024-10">would cause "seismic shocks to the US economy,"</a> Tom Orlik, the chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, said earlier this month. Charles Schwab global investment strategy chief Jeffrey Kleintop <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-stock-market-international-investing-strategy-charles-schwab-2024-6">cited tariffs as a top risk</a> back in June. The nonpartisan Peterson Institute <a target="_blank" href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/trumps-proposed-blanket-tariffs-would-risk-global-trade-war">spoke out against Trump's tariff proposals</a>, as did the right-leaning <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-tariffs-economy-2024-election-kamala-harris-robert-lighthizer-29c07e94">Wall Street Journal editorial board</a>.Although investors may want to take the possibility of tariffs more seriously, Kelly noted that even if they're a major headache, stocks and the economy should still be fine in the long term."I could have said 'pandemic' five years ago, if I'd been incredibly prescient," Kelly said at the conference. "But oddly enough, the global economy bounced back anyway. And so it wouldn't actually have been a very good thing to worry about."

The economy seems to be firing on all cylinders — but a veteran JPMorgan strategy chief says one underappreciated risk could cause a serious global slowdown

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The central government has reduced <keyword id="20442280" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="windfall-tax" source="keywords">windfall tax</keyword> on crude petroleum, according to a government notification. The special additional <keyword id="20253895" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="excise-duty" source="keywords">excise duty</keyword> (<keyword id="20211971" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="saed" source="keywords">SAED</keyword>) on crude petroleum has been slashed from Rs 9,600 per tonne to Rs 8,400 per tonne. The new <keyword id="20452955" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tax-rates" source="keywords">tax rates</keyword> will come into immediate effect. The taxes on <keyword id="6356109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="diesel" source="Orion">diesel</keyword>, petrol and aviation turbine fuel will continue to remain nil. The government had on April 16 raised the windfall tax on <keyword id="20201860" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="petroleum-crude" source="keywords">petroleum crude</keyword> to Rs 9,600 per cent tonne from Rs 6,800. A tax levied on an unforeseen or unexpectedly large profit is called a windfall tax. Meanwhile, bringing a measure of respite to the people, <keyword id="19979741" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="oil-marketing-companies" source="keywords">oil marketing companies</keyword> have slashed the prices of <keyword id="21488887" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="commercial-LPG-gas-cylinders" source="keywords">commercial LPG gas cylinders</keyword> by Rs 19 per unit with immediate effect. The retail sales price of a 19 kg commercial LPG cylinder would be now Rs 1745.50 in Delhi, sources said. Last month, the price was cut by Rs 30.50 for a 19-kg commercial cylinder at Rs 1764.50. While the precise reasons behind the <keyword id="21488889" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="price-decrease" source="keywords">price decrease</keyword> remain undisclosed, various factors, such as changes in <keyword id="21488888" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="international-oil-prices" source="keywords">international oil prices</keyword>, shifts in taxation policies, and supply-demand dynamics, likely contribute to such adjustments. Revisions for both commercial and domestic LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) cylinders typically occur on the first day of each month. (ANI)

India slashes windfall tax on crude petroleum

<ul><li>The US economy is still firing on all cylinders despite slowing GDP growth in the first quarter.</li><li>Carson Group strategist Sonu Varghese highlighted five economic indicators that show the strength.</li><li>"The workhorse of the US economy remains the consumer, and there's really not much sign of a slowdown," Varghese said.</li></ul>The US economy is firing on all cylinders despite <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-economy-growth-2024-4">a slowdown in first-quarter GDP growth,</a> according to Carson Group global macro strategist Sonu Varghese.Varghese highlighted five economic indicators that show continued underlying strength in the US economy, giving him little reason for concern as the labor market continues to power higher."The workhorse of the US economy remains the consumer, and there's really not much sign of a slowdown as far as household spending is concerned," Varghese said in a note last week. "In fact, services spending, which makes up 45% of the economy rose at an annualized pace of 4%."That 4% growth rate is more than double the 1.8% growth trend seen from 2010 through 2019, according to Varghese, and it represents the fastest pace of growth since the third-quarter of 2021. "The current strength of consumption is directly related to the strength of American household finances," Varghese said.These are the five indicators that give Varghese confidence that the US consumer, and therefore the US economy, remains on solid footing.<h3>1. Income growth is outpacing inflation</h3>Despite elevated inflation, wage growth continues to outpace inflation growth, and that's ultimately a boon for consumers.Disposable incomes grew at an annualized pace of 4.8% in the first-quarter, and employee compensation soared 7.8%. Meanwhile, PCE inflation rose 4.4%."That's the simplest explanation for why consumption continues to run strong," Varghese said.<div type="image" title="Income versus inflation" height="803" width="626" msid="109792200" hostid="261" sizebytes="20070"></div><h3>2. Average hourly earnings are also outpacing inflation</h3>It's not only high-income earners that are seeing their wages outpace inflation. The average every-day worker is also seeing their income grow faster than the pace of inflation."Inflation-adjusted hourly wages are growing even when you look at the average worker, and separate non-managers from managers," Varghese explained.That's important because non-managers tend to spend a greater portion of their incomes from wages, so it's important that they see their wage growth outpace inflation. <div type="image" title="hourly earnings growth outpaces inflation" height="752" width="647" msid="109792202" hostid="261" sizebytes="27276"></div><h3>3. Consumer balance sheets are strong</h3>A continued rise in the stock market and housing prices means Americans are more wealthy today than they have ever been.US consumers held a collective $176.7 trillion in assets as of December 31, and their liabilities have not risen as quickly as their assets have.That means consumers have ample room to spend money and save less, which makes it no surprise that the savings rate of US consumers has steadily declined over the past few years to 4.2% today from 7.4% in 2019."This is not surprising considering net worth is higher. Why save more if you're worth more?" Varghese said. <div type="image" title="Consumer balance sheet" height="696" width="653" msid="109792204" hostid="261" sizebytes="27840"></div><h3>4. Consumer's have capacity to borrow more</h3>Across all levels of the income spectrum, consumers owe less in debt relative to their income than they have in decades.The household debt service ratio, which measures debt payments as a percentage of disposable income, stood at 9.8% in the fourth-quarter of 2024. That's significantly below the 13.3% peak hit in 2007 and the historical average of 11.2%, and it suggests that consumers have ample flexibility to borrow more money and consumer if they have to. "Across all income groups, liabilities as a percent of assets are well below what we've seen historically. In short, households are significantly less levered than in the past," Varghese said.<div type="image" title="Debt service ratio" height="837" width="648" msid="109792206" hostid="261" sizebytes="28142"></div><h3>5. The jobs market is still resilient</h3>"The labor market is the entire ballgame as far as the consumer is concerned. If the labor market deteriorates, incomes fall, consumption falls, and the economy is in trouble," Varghese said.And so far, there are no signs of that happening. "We have the opposite now," Varghese highlighted.The unemployment rate has stayed below 4% for 26 consecutive months, representing the longest streak since the late 1960s. Meanwhile, there is still more than one job opening for every unemployed worker, and weekly jobless claims continue to hover near historically low levels. "Ultimately, here's what's important to keep in mind: consumption makes up 70% of the US economy, and right now consumption is running strong thanks to strong labor markets, which are pushing incomes higher to above the pace of inflation, and higher net worth, which means households can spend more," Varghese concluded.

5 indicators that show the US economy is still firing on all cylinders despite slowing GDP

<ul class="summary-list"><li>At a meet-and-greet in Maryland, Democratic Rep. David Trone was largely complimentary of Biden.</li><li>He did note the 81-year-old president's age has begun to affect him.</li></ul>In a speech largely complimentary of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-good-sex-key-to-a-great-marriage-book-2024-2">President Joe Biden</a>, Democratic Rep. David Trone said the 81-year-old president's age has begun to affect him.As first reported by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2024/02/26/spending-talks-go-off-the-rails-00143259?cid=hptb_primary_0">Politico</a> on Monday, a video shows Trone telling the crowd at a Maryland Democratic club's meet-and-greet on February 21 that the president is "working and firing on all cylinders."He admitted, though, that Biden's age has become obvious."Does he talk slower?" Trone asked the crowd. "Yes. Does he move like he's older? Yes."Citing his experience as a CEO, he said the role of a president is to hire "smart people" around them to help run the nation."People who run the thing are the smart people you hire, the people around you," Trone said in the 20-minute video, shared with Business Insider by Politico. "And getting great people in all those jobs, as many as you can — that's how the government works, is through others. We can't ever be a one-man team that's going to fail. You got to leverage your talents, leverage your skills through other people, and trust them to run with it."And as he spoke to a room that appeared to be full of seniors, Trone joked about the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/special-counsel-report-biden-age-poor-memory-reason-no-charges-2024-2">recent discourse</a> over Biden's age."'I wish he was 10 years younger,'" the 67-year-old Trone said, mocking <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-ruth-bader-ginsburg-comparison-age-health-step-down-2024-2">people critiquing</a> the president's age. "Okay, I got it. Who here doesn't? I know I do… But you know what it is, it is. We do the best we can."While continuing to represent Maryland's 6th Congressional District in the House, Trone is in the running to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin. Trone <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/maryland-larry-hogan-senate-campaign-presidential-year-gop-democrats-2024-2">could face off</a> against former GOP Gov. Larry Hogan should they both win their respective primaries in May."I often say I wish I was 10 years younger," Trone said in a statement. "I also often say Joe Biden is doing an incredible job, which is exactly what I said in the unedited version of this video."

A House Democrat admits Biden's aging is noticeable, but says the president is 'firing on all cylinders' 

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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The patent, filed by Apple in November and published on July 13, shows a rollable electronic display.</li><li>The design uses thinned glass and components that create compression to protect the screen when rolled.</li></ul>In the market for a new iPhone? Your next device could get quite the upgrade: Apple has filed a patent for a device that's capable of rolling up.The <a href="https://image-ppubs.uspto.gov/dirsearch-public/print/downloadPdf/20230221766">patent</a>, filed in November and published on July 13, demonstrates a design for a rolling phone that relies on thinned glass and components that place compressive pressure on the screen to ensure the display is not damaged when rolled. While the patent is for general electronic displays, Apple specifically noted in the application this design could be used for phones.Apple would be joining Samsung, Motorola, and LG in the quest to bring to market a rollable smartphone.Both Samsung and Motorola are <a href="https://www.cnet.com/tech/mobile/why-you-wont-be-buying-a-rollable-phone-anytime-soon/">also working toward a rollable phone</a>, but neither company has actually brought the product to market. LG too has <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lg-rollable-phone-screen-expands-video-ces-2021-2021-1">advertised</a> a rollable phone that they have yet to release. The company now <a href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=52f11b749a32c4b60a50256f08f69d25aa21b42b24b99ab03bc4cd1e0c3ed2fd&amp;postID=64b41a0122f2a9342c4220b6&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lg.com%2Fglobal%2Flg-signature%2Frollable-oled-tv-r">sells</a> a rollable OLED television.

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