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Perth: (The Conversation) Last week, three tiny Australian satellites from Curtin University's <keyword id="23932163" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Binar-Space-Program" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Binar Space Program" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Binar Space Program">Binar Space Program</keyword> burned up in Earth's atmosphere. That was always going to happen. In fact, Binar means "fireball" in the Noongar language of the First Nations people of Perth. When a satellite is in low Earth orbit (2,000km or less), it experiences orbital decay as it drags closer and closer to the surface, eventually burning up. <br /><br />But these cube satellites (<keyword id="21533654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CubeSats" source="keywords">CubeSats</keyword>), known as Binar-2, 3 and 4, entered the atmosphere much sooner than originally planned. They only lasted for two months - a third of what was expected. This significantly reduced valuable time for science and testing new systems. <br /><br />The reason for their untimely demise? Our Sun has kicked into high gear, and the Binar satellites are far from the only casualty. Recent high <keyword id="20792842" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Solar-activity" source="keywords">solar activity</keyword> has been causing an unexpected headache for satellite operators in the last few years, and it's only increasing. <br /><br /><h2>Why is the Sun so active? <br /></h2><br />Solar activity includes phenomena such as sunspots, solar flares and solar wind - the stream of charged particles that flows toward Earth. <br /><br />This activity is a product of the Sun's ever-changing magnetic field, and approximately every 11 years, it completely flips. At the midpoint of this cycle, solar activity is at its highest. <br /><br />While this cycle is known, specific solar activity is challenging to predict - the dynamics are complex and solar forecasting is in its infancy. <br /><br />In the last few months, indicators of solar activity were more than one and a half times higher than predictions for this point in the current cycle, labelled <keyword id="22712826" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="solar-cycle-25" source="keywords">solar cycle 25</keyword>. <br /><br /><h2>The impact of <keyword id="20087207" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="space-weather" source="keywords">space weather</keyword> <br /></h2><br />Space weather refers to the environmental effects that originate from outside our atmosphere (mostly the Sun). It affects us on Earth in a variety of noticeable and unnoticeable ways. <br /><br />The most obvious is the presence of auroras. In the past few months, auroras have been visible far more intensely and closer to the equator than in the last two decades. This is a direct result of the increased solar activity. <br /><br />Space weather, and solar activity in particular, also creates additional challenges for satellites and satellite operators. <br /><br />Higher solar activity means more solar flares and stronger solar wind - resulting in a higher flux of charged particles that can damage or disrupt electrical components on satellites. <br /><br />It also means an increase in ionising radiation, resulting in a higher dose for astronauts and pilots, and potential disruptions to long-distance radio communications. <br /><br />But for satellites in low Earth orbit, the most consistent effect of solar activity is that the extra energy gets absorbed into the outer atmosphere, causing it to balloon outward. <br /><br />As a result, all satellites less than 1,000km from Earth experience a significant increase in <keyword id="23473319" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="atmospheric-drag" source="keywords">atmospheric drag</keyword>. This is a force that disrupts their orbit and causes them to fall towards the planet's surface. <br /><br />Notable satellites in this region include the International Space Station and the Starlink constellation. These satellites have thrusters to counteract this effect, but these corrections can be expensive. <br /><br />Low Earth orbit also contains many university satellites, such as the Binar CubeSats. Cube satellites are rarely equipped with tools that can adjust their altitude, so they're entirely at the mercy of space weather. <br /><br /><h2>What happened to Binar? <br /></h2><br />The Binar Space Program is a satellite research program operating out of Curtin University. It aims to advance our understanding of the Solar System and lower the barrier for operating in space. <br /><br />The program began operations with its first satellite, Binar-1, in September 2021. This was less than a year into solar cycle 25 when solar activity was relatively low. <br /><br />In these conditions, the ten-centimetre cube satellite started at an altitude of 420km and survived a full 364 days in orbit. <br /><br />The program's follow-up mission - Binar-2, 3, and 4 - were three equally sized CubeSats. However, they were expected to last approximately six months owing to the extra surface area from new deployable solar arrays and a forecast increase in solar activity. <br /><br />Instead, they only made it to two months before burning up. While cube satellite missions are relatively cheap, the premature ending of a mission will always be costly. This is even more true for commercial satellites, highlighting the need for more accurate space weather forecasting. <br /><br />The good news is the Sun will calm down again. Despite the current unexpectedly high solar activity, it will likely slow down by 2026, and is expected to return to a solar minimum in 2030. <br /><br />While this was not an explicit goal of the mission, the Binar Space Program has now poignantly demonstrated the dramatic effects of solar activity on space operations. <br /><br />While the untimely loss of Binar-2, 3 and 4 was unfortunate, work has already begun on future missions. They are expected to launch into far more forgiving space weather. (The Conversation).

Right now, the Sun is far more active than predicted - and small satellites are paying the price

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump administration policies at home and abroad have strained relations with countries all over the world.</li><li>Those strains have been felt acutely in <keyword id="6355478" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="australia">Australia</keyword>, a country already wary of Trump, which is now increasingly at odds with both the US and <keyword id="1334" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="China">China</keyword>.</li></ul><p>The Trump administration's confrontational approach at home and abroad have tarnished the US's standing with one of its most important allies: Australia.</p><p>President <keyword id="6354484" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Donald-Trump">Donald Trump</keyword>'s poor handling of the coronavirus pandemic and hardline response to widespread protests against systemic racism and police brutality have further dismayed Australians who were already wary of Trump's leadership and done so at a time when Canberra is struggling to deal with China.</p><p>Those domestic and foreign tensions were joined in Lafayette Park, in front of the White House, on June 1, when law enforcement forcefully dispersed a crowd of protesters, allowing Trump to take part <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lawmakers-dont-know-how-trump-pentagon-will-use-troops-protests-2020-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in a photo op at a nearby church</a>.</p><p><div type="image" title="White House protest Australia" height="982" width="2100" msid="76674538" hostid="261"></div></p><p>Caught in that crowd was a team of Australian journalists, whose beating by US police <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5GNB_7cQxY&amp;feature=youtu.beu.be" target="_blank" rel="noopener">was broadcast into Australian homes</a> and drew an official complaint.</p><p>"It's really a jarring scene for a lot of Australians who have a cultural affinity with the US. I think that seemed like a very profoundly sad moment to watch," Ryan Heath, an Australian journalist who works in the US, said of the incident on a June 3 episode of the <a href="https://www.politico.com/podcasts/dispatch" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Politico Dispatch</a> podcast.</p><p>"I think that a lot of people either looked up to the US in a moral sense or looked to the US for protection, and I think a lot of people watching the scenes will now question whether the US can provide that leadership," Heath said.</p><h2>'Australia is disgusted with us'</h2><p><div type="image" title="Trump Australia Wapakoneta Ohio" height="1667" width="2223" msid="76674544" hostid="261"></div></p><p>Reservations about Trump are not new in Australia. Polling by Australia's United States Study Center <a href="https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/public-opinion-in-the-united-states-and-australia-compared" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in July 2019</a> found that just 20% of Australians said they'd prefer Trump win a second term and that Australians by a 2-to-1 margin preferred a Democrat beat Trump in the 2020 election.</p><p>Polling <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/generation-why-younger-australians-wary-united-states" target="_blank" rel="noopener">done in March</a> by Australia's Lowy Institute found just 30% of Australians had some or a lot of confidence that Trump would "do the right thing regarding world affairs." That was up five points from 2019, but Australians also widely rejected Trump's "America First" policies, such as tariffs on imports or withdrawing from <keyword id="6356001" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">international</keyword> agreements.</p><p>While most Australians supported partnering with the US and other democracies to promote security in the region, only 40% agreed that "Australia should act in accordance with our security alliance with the United States if it means supporting military action in the Middle East, for example, against Iran," down eight points from 2013.</p><p><div type="image" title="Demonstrators observe a minute's silence in Canberra, Australia, on Friday, June 5, 2020 in memory of deaths in custody including George Floyd, who died after being restrained by Minneapolis police officers on May 25. Thousands gathered in Australia's capital to remind Australians that the racial inequality underscored by Floyd's death was not unique to the United States. (AP Photo/Rod McGuirk)" height="3003" width="4296" msid="76674551" hostid="261"></div></p><p>"The US-Australia alliance is the most strained it's been in my lifetime, maybe ever," Van Jackson, a senior lecturer in international relations at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, said in an email days after the events in Lafayette Park.</p><p>"When I worked in the Pentagon [during the Obama administration] we generally thought of Australia as our closest ally in the world, and there was stiff competition for that title at the time," Jackson added. "But Australia is disgusted with us, and its policymakers increasingly see us as unreliable."</p><p>Malcolm Turnbull, Australia's prime minister from 2015 to 2018, recently <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-and-johnson-reacted-too-slow-covid-malcolm-turnbull-says-2020-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">told Business Insider</a> that the US has less influence around the world now than it did prior to Trump's presidency, "in large part because under his presidency, the US has sought to have less influence."</p><h2>Caught between the US and China</h2><p><div type="image" title="Donald Trump Scott Morrison Australia" height="1558" width="2077" msid="76674556" hostid="261"></div></p><p>The response to the coronavirus pandemic, for which Australians have given US and Chinese leaders poor marks, has contributed to a sense in Australia that it is caught between the two powers.</p><p>Australia's call in late April <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-australia-wants-investigation-into-china-role-in-pandemic-2020-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">for an independent review</a> into the origins of the pandemic drew backlash from Beijing, which accused Canberra of following Washington's lead.</p><p>One Chinese state-media outlet <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6158222121001" target="_blank" rel="noopener">called</a> Australia "a giant kangaroo that serves as a dog to the US." Beijing has also <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-australia-barley/china-hits-australia-with-barley-tariff-in-latest-blow-to-relations-idUSKBN22U1J6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">slapped tariffs</a> on Australian goods and purportedly conducted <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/australia-all-but-accuses-china-cyberattack-government-companies-2020-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a months-long cyberattack</a> against Australia's government and businesses.</p><p>Canberra has resisted efforts to push an unsubstantiated claim, touted by the US, that the coronavirus was developed in a Chinese lab. A dossier supposedly compiled by Western governments and cited by Australian media as supporting that claim <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-26/china-coronavirus-dossier-came-out-of-us-state-department/12282994" target="_blank" rel="noopener">raised concerns</a> in Canberra that the US was promoting inaccurate information.</p><p><div type="image" title="The mostly deserted city centre is seen following the implementation of stricter social-distancing and self-isolation rules to limit the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Sydney, Australia, April 16, 2020. REUTERS/Loren Elliott" height="2609" width="3914" msid="76674559" hostid="261"></div></p><p>China's effort to "recast Australia's independent call for a COVID-19 inquiry as 'doing Washington's bidding' is designed to discredit Canberra and put the government in a difficult diplomatic position," Ashley Townshend, director of foreign policy and defense at the United States Studies Center, said in an email at the end of May.</p><p>"At the same time, Australia has not been well served by the Trump administration's hyper-confrontational stance towards China on COVID-19," including its unproven theories about pandemic's origins, Townshend added.</p><p>"Washington must protect the integrity of the shared information landscape — and allow Canberra's independent voice to ring through" if Australia is to resist Beijing's efforts to paint it as a US lackey, Townshend said.</p><h2>Fraying 'mateship'</h2><p><div type="image" title="Obama Julia Gillard troops Marines Darwin Australia" height="919" width="1400" msid="76674564" hostid="261"></div></p><p>Despite recent strains in the relationship, the US and Australian continue to work closely together, particularly on security matters.</p><p>Australia's location is valuable to the US, which operates a satellite surveillance base at Pine Gap in Central Australia and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-marines-australian-troops-train-on-each-others-weapons-2020-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">regularly deploys</a> Marines to Darwin in north-central Australia. An Australian navy ship also recently <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-security-malaysia/australia-joins-u-s-ships-in-south-china-sea-amid-rising-tension-idUSKCN2240FS" target="_blank" rel="noopener">joined US warships</a> for exercises in the increasingly tense South China Sea.</p><p>"Cultural similarities and robust bilateral arrangements" also undergird the "unique bilateral partnership" that Australia <a href="https://usa.embassy.gov.au/australia-and-us-relations" target="_blank" rel="noopener">describes</a> as "mateship."</p><p>But fraying bilateral relations would have consequences for the US's strategic position in the region.</p><p>"Losing Australian support would hobble America's ability to compete with China outside of Northeast Asia," Jackson said, adding that alienating Australia would almost certainly mean losing the goodwill of other Asian allies and partners.</p><p><div type="image" title="Australia Marines Osprey" height="1667" width="2500" msid="76674568" hostid="261"></div></p><p>"I can't think of a scenario where the US-Australia alliance fractures but the US ties with Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and New Zealand remain in good stead," Jackson said. "At that point, the United States will either have no meaningful strategic position in the Pacific outside Hawaii and Guam, or the United States itself will be a menace to the region."</p><p>Rising tensions between the US and China, increasingly characterized as a cold war, have stoked debate within Australia about its positioning between the US, a major ally, and China, its largest trading partner.</p><p>"The problem for us here in Australia is the government needs to make up its mind," said Alexey Muraviev, a professor focused on security studies at Curtin University in Perth.</p><p>"Part of the frustration that I think some experts in Australian security and defense communities have is the government is trying to sit on two chairs." Muraviev said in an interview. "One chair is called our security and strategic concerns about China as a strategic counterweight to the United States, and the other chair is called China is our number one trading partner, and there are too many eggs in that basket."</p><p><div type="image" title="Trump Asia ASEAN handshake" height="1505" width="2500" msid="76674572" hostid="261"></div></p><p>The US and Australia have overlapping strategic objectives in the region, but their interests and threat perceptions regarding China "are by no means symmetrical," Townshend said. A more robust China policy, focused on boosting national sovereignty and resilience, is a common goal and one that "will drive a high degree cooperation."</p><p>But Canberra and Washington have "very different capabilities, policy priorities, and political tolerance for accepting costs and risks in the China relationship," Townshend added. "Australia, as a middle power, is far more concerned about preserving the overall health of a multilateral regional order than the current White House appears to be."</p><p>While many so-called middle powers have hedged between the US and China, seeking to work with both and spurn neither, Australia's deep ties to the US and economic reliance on China put it in a precarious position.</p><p>"They've hedged in the sense that they've placed two very different bets, but they've bet the farm on both of them. And it's not possible for them both to work out well in this environment," Jackson said on <a href="https://www.undiplomaticpodcast.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a recent episode of his podcast</a>.</p>

Caught between Trump and China, one of the US's closest allies is starting to have second thoughts

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Right now, the Sun is far more active than predicted - and small satellites are paying the price

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Caught between Trump and China, one of the US's closest allies is starting to have second thoughts

Christopher Woody

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