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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's oil revenue fell sharply year-over-year in October.</li><li>Oil-related tax revenue dropped 29% last month, while oil and gas proceeds fell more than 25%.</li></ul>Russia saw a double-digit drop in oil revenue last month, hitting an important source of funds for the Kremlin amid pressure on global crude prices. Moscow's revenue from oil-related taxes plummeted 29% year-over-year in October, from 1.48 trillion rubles to 1.05 trillion rubles, according to data from Russia's Finance Ministry. Oil and gas proceeds, which is largely made up of oil production taxes and profit-based taxes in the industry, also fell more than 25% to 1.21 trillion rubles.Total oil and gas revenue rose on a monthly basis, with October levels up more than 75% compared to September. However, that's largely because the profit-based tax on Russia's oil industry is due four times a year, with companies paying taxes in March, April, July, and October, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-05/kremlin-oil-revenue-shrank-by-29-in-october-amid-lower-prices">Bloomberg reported</a>.The yearly drop has largely been fueled by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-economy-oil-war-revenue-crude-prices-opec-production-cut-2024-9">falling crude prices</a>. International crude prices logged their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-today-israel-strike-iran-production-brent-wti-crude-2024-10">biggest drop in two years</a> last month after Israel's strike against Iran spared its oil infrastructure. Meanwhile, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-oil-opec-crude-production-record-oil-prices-commodity-market-2024-11">US producers are pumping more than ever</a>, complicating efforts by OPEC+ to crimp supply and boost the price. Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded around $75 a barrel on Tuesday, down 11% over the last year. Meanwhile, Urals crude, Russia's flagship oil blend, traded around $63.57, down around 24% compared to the same time last year, Bloomberg data shows.The drop in oil revenue throttles a key source of funds for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-outlook-moscow-sanctions-west-firms-uchicago-2024-10">Russia's war-driven economy</a>, which is becoming increasingly strained under the rising costs of its invasion of Ukraine. Russia's oil and gas industries have accounted for around 30%-50% of Russia's federal budget revenue for the last decade, according to an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/follow-the-money-understanding-russias-oil-and-gas-revenues/">analysis</a> from The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Russia's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-defense-budget-spending-ukraine-war-putin-sanctions-2024-10">defense state spending</a>, meanwhile, is on track to hit a post-Soviet high in 2025.

Russia's oil revenue plummeted 29% in October amid volatile global crude prices

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US crude production hit a new all-time monthly high in August.</li><li>This complicates things for OPEC+, which was planning to start increasing output in December.</li></ul>The US is pumping a record amount of oil. But that may not be welcome news to other crude-producing nations.Domestic output reached <a target="_blank" href="https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/">13.4 million barrels a day in August,</a> eclipsing all previous monthly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&amp;s=mcrfpus1&amp;f=m">records</a>. According to US Energy Information Administration data, firms in Texas and New Mexico led the surge.That level of production puts the US at odds with the plans of other oil-producing nations. OPEC+, an alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has said it plans to begin in December a sequence of monthly output increases. But given the decline in the price of crude oil — down 20% from an April high — continued record production from the US, and weakening demand, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-29/oil-traders-split-on-whether-opec-will-hike-supply-in-december">oil traders believe OPEC+ will delay its program</a> for a second time.It's the culmination of a multi-year period that saw OPEC+ members cut production to support higher market prices, only to be undercut by expanding production from non-OPEC exporters.Looking into 2025, analysts speculate that global demand will continue sliding, especially given <a target="_blank" href="https://www.iea.org/commentaries/china-s-slowdown-is-weighing-on-the-outlook-for-global-oil-demand-growth">China's decelerating oil consumption</a>. That's one reason the global oil surplus could swell to 1.2 million barrels per day next year, according to JPMorgan. Otherwise, expanding outflows from the US, Brazil, Guyana and Canada will also play a part."OPEC+ increasingly appears to be searching for El Dorado: an oil market where demand is strong enough that it can increase output and prices stay above $80 per barrel," wrote Bill Weatherburn, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics. "We suspect that this won't be found in 2025 either as China's demand growth will remain soft and more oil supply from non-OPEC+ producers will enter the market."

The US is pumping more oil than ever, and it's complicating things for other crude-exporting countries

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's oil revenue has plummeted as global crude prices fall. </li><li>Oil sales dropped to $1.44 billion in the week ending September 8, per data cited by Bloomberg.</li></ul>Russia's oil business has taken a hit, with the nation's crude revenue dropping to its lowest levels in seven months, according to Argus Media data cited by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-10/russia-s-oil-exports-earn-the-least-since-february-as-prices-tumble">Bloomberg</a>.Moscow, which relies on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-west-secondary-sanctions-hitting-oil-exports-payments-revenue-2024-3">crude sales</a> for a big chunk of its revenue, saw the gross value of its oil exports drop to $1.44 billion in the week ending September 8, down from $1.52 billion netted the prior week, the outlet reported. That's the lowest amount Russia has netted from crude exports since January, despite the nation pumping out 40,000 more barrels of oil a day over the last week.The decline has largely been fueled by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-outlook-supply-demand-break-down-record-us-production-2024-9">plunging oil prices</a> as the demand outlook falters amid predictions of a recession in the US, while US producers continue to pump record amounts of crude. <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://oilprice.com">Urals crude</a>, Russia's flagship oil blend, has edged lower to $67.61 a barrel, down around 20% from its peak in the spring of this year.Russia is also selling less oil than it did in the prior years, thanks to weaker demand from its Asian customers and oil pipeline disruptions to Hungary in August. Russia's four-week average sales volume slumped to 3.13 million barrels a day as of September 8, down 30,000 barrels a day from the prior monthly average.Observed Russian crude shipments to Asia, in particular, dropped to an average 2.92 million barrels a day in the month over that time frame, around 10% below the average shipped earlier this year, the report said.Russia is set to make even steeper oil production cuts later in 2024, as part of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-crash-opec-saudi-arabia-us-production-brent-outlook-2023-12">OPEC's goal to boost crude prices</a>. The nation is planning to ramp up production cuts in October and November to make up for producing more than it promised earlier in the year, Russia's Energy Ministry said in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://t.me/s/minenergo_official/3799">post</a> on Telegram, though it didn't clarify how much further it would cut.

Russia's oil revenue has plunged as global crude prices tumble

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Saudi Arabia's oil minister says crude prices could fall as low as $50 per barrel.</li><li>OPEC delegates consider this a signal that the Saudis are ready to engage in a price war.</li></ul>Saudi Arabia's oil minister says oil prices could fall as low as $50 per barrel if OPEC+ keeps overproducing, according to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/saudi-minister-warns-of-50-oil-as-opec-members-flout-production-curbs-216dc070">Wall Street Journal</a> report.Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman's forecast, made during a conference call last week, was regarded as an indirect threat aimed at others in the oil coalition. According to delegates who spoke with WSJ, it signals Riyadh's readiness to launch a price war if the cartel's outflows aren't restrained.One delegate summarized the minister's remarks bluntly: "Some better shut up and respect their commitments toward OPEC+."$50 per barrel oil would drag <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent</a> crude, the international benchmark, down 33% from current levels.The commodity was trading around $74 per barrel as of Wednesday morning. Crude markets have soared this week amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, as Israel's ground offensive into Lebanon prompted a heavy missile attack from Iran.Though fear grew that this would disrupt regional production, geopolitical tensions have had a limited impact on crude this year. Instead, prices have slumped on waning demand and an excessive supply glut, pushing Brent down 16% since peaking in April.That's despite OPEC's efforts to keep prices elevated by slashing output. Although numerous production cuts have been announced since mid-2023, this has only cost the coalition market share, without arresting prices.Part of the issue is that members are not sticking to their pledged cuts. The Saudi minister called out Iraq, which surpassed its quota by 400,000 barrels per day in August, according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/080824-opec-produces-437000-bd-above-quota-in-first-month-of-compensation-cuts">S&amp;P Global Ratings</a> data. Kazakhstan, which overproduced by 120,000 barrels a day, was also singled out.Although Saudi Arabia's economy depends on higher pricing, a report from last week suggests that the kingdom might be ready to boost its <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/saudi-arabia-oil-prices-brent-crude-outlook-opec-production-cuts-2024-9">oil output and bolster its market share</a>.One source told the Financial Times that Riyadh would ditch its curbs quicker than expected if countries such as Iraq and Kazakhstan keep producing above their quota.This decision will become public on December 1, when OPEC is scheduled to determine whether to increase production. Though it was initially meant to do so in October, the decision was delayed.Saudi Arabia has a history of shaking up the market by increasing production. The OPEC leader caused prices to fall below $10 per barrel in 1986 after boosting output to penalize other producers.

Saudi minister says crude prices could fall 33% if OPEC members don't stop pumping so much

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia is still using blacklisted ships to transport its oil, per Bloomberg data. </li><li>The nation loaded at least 17 cargoes of oil and oil products onto ships sanctioned by the West.</li></ul>Russia is leaning more heavily on crude tankers that have been blacklisted from the West in a sign Moscow is still finding ways to skirt Western restrictions on its oil trade.Since April, Russian ports have loaded at least 17 cargoes of oil and oil products onto ships that have already been restricted by the West, according to Bloomberg ship tracking data.Moscow appears to have ramped up its use of sanctioned vessels over the last several months. A dozen sanctioned ships were known to load Russian crude and crude products in August and September, up from just one sanctioned ship recorded in April, the outlet reported.Many of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-sanction-oil-tankers-shadow-fleet-crude-exports-price-cap-2024-2">Russia's sanctioned oil tankers were idle</a> after they were placed under trade restrictions, but some seemed to have operated under the radar and have recently started to show up on digital tracking systems, Bloomberg reported.The Bratsk and Belgorod, for instance, two ships sanctioned by the West, had fallen off the map during their first trip after they had been sanctioned. But both reappeared this month after docking and unloading their cargoes in China, the outlet said.Another 20 sanctioned tankers are known to be idling near Russia's coasts or anchored at Russian ports, the report added.Putin has openly brushed off Western sanctions on its oil trade, calling the Western ban and $60 price cap on its crude "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/vladimir-putin-russian-oil-price-cap-eu-ban-production-cut-2022-12">stupid</a>" shortly after those measures were implemented. But even the nation's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-west-secondary-sanctions-hitting-oil-exports-payments-revenue-2024-3">central bankers have admitted</a> that sanctions are crimping its oil business, with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-energy-revenue-crude-oil-prices-gas-exports-sanctions-ukraine-2024-1">Russia's energy revenues dropping</a> by nearly a quarter last year.Falling crude prices also appear to be hitting Russia's oil trade. In the first week of September, Moscow <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-economy-oil-war-revenue-crude-prices-opec-production-cut-2024-9">pulled just $1.44 billion from its oil exports</a>, the lowest crude revenue recorded since January, Bloomberg previously reported.

Sanctioned tankers are back to transporting Russian oil in a blow to the West's efforts to restrict crude flows

Mumbai: The rupee fell sharply by 15 paise against the US dollar to 83.44 in early trade on Wednesday amid muted trends in the domestic equity markets. However, a decline in the dollar index and a marginal fall in the Brent crude index prevented further losses in the domestic unit, according to experts. At the interbank foreign exchange, the local unit opened at 84.38 -- down 9 paise from its previous close -- and then slid further to 84.44, registering a decline of 15 paise from its previous close. On Tuesday, the rupee pared its intra-day losses to settle flat at 84.29 against the US dollar. "The <keyword id="24182640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-banking-liquidity" source="keywords">Indian banking liquidity</keyword> fell into deficit as industry players paid Rs 1.6-1.8 lakh crore as GST payment. This was after two months that liquidity has fallen into a deficit as the RBI also intervened into forex markets to defend the rupee weighing on liquidity conditions," Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said. "The rupee may be in the broad range of 84.00 to 84.50 in the near term as markets await a slew of data from the US this evening," Bhansali added. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.15 per cent to 106.84. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was marginally down 0.10 per cent to USD 72.74 per barrel in futures trade. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share equity benchmark Sensex was trading 46.69 points lower, or 0.06 per cent, at 79,957.57 points. <keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Foreign-Institutional-Investors" source="keywords">Foreign Institutional Investors</keyword> (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Tuesday, purchasing shares worth Rs 1,157.70 crore, according to exchange data.

Rupee falls 15 paise to 83.44 against US dollar in early trade

Mumbai: The rupee slipped 1 paisa to an all-time low of 84.40 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday, as persistent <keyword id="20520117" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-fund-outflows" source="keywords">foreign fund outflows</keyword> and a muted trend in domestic equities weighed on the local unit. Forex traders said the USDINR pair has shown significant volatility in recent sessions, with the rupee inching closer to its all-time low of 84.40. This downward pressure is largely driven by global factors, particularly the Dollar Index's strengthening. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.40 against the greenback, registering a fall of 1 paisa over its previous close. On Tuesday, the rupee fell 1 paisa to a new lifetime low of 84.39 against the US dollar. "It appears that the rupee has established support around the current levels, with depreciation limited near 84.50," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Pabari further added that the RBI stands tall as the depreciation in the rupee seems to be limited as the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) continues to sell the dollars to protect the sharp depreciation. "For the 5th consecutive week, India's forex reserves declined, possibly due to RBI selling the dollars. Currently, the forex reserves of India stand at USD 682 billion down from the recent all-time high of USD 704 billion," he said. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.04 per cent at 105.98. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.25 per cent to USD 72.07 per barrel in futures trade. On the domestic equity market front, Sensex was trading 210.66 points, or 0.27 per cent lower, to 78,464.52 points. The Nifty fell 100.45 points, or 0.42 per cent, to 23,783.00 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Tuesday, as they offloaded shares worth Rs 3,024.31 crore, according to exchange data. On the macroeconomic front, retail inflation breached the Reserve Bank's upper tolerance level, soaring to a 14-month high of 6.21 per cent in October mainly on account of rising food prices. Inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) was 5.49 per cent in September and 4.87 per cent in the year-ago month. India's industrial production expanded by 3.1 per cent in September after recording a contraction in the preceding month, as all three major segments -- mining, manufacturing, and power generation -- showed improvement. However, the growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) during the month was lower than 6.4 per cent registered in September 2023.

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Russia's oil revenue plummeted 29% in October amid volatile global crude prices

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The US is pumping more oil than ever, and it's complicating things for other crude-exporting countries

Filip De Mott

Russia's oil revenue has plunged as global crude prices tumble

Jennifer Sor

Saudi minister says crude prices could fall 33% if OPEC members don't stop pumping so much

Filip De Mott

Sanctioned tankers are back to transporting Russian oil in a blow to the West's efforts to restrict crude flows

Jennifer Sor

Rupee falls 15 paise to 83.44 against US dollar in early trade

PTI

Rupee falls 1 paisa to all-time low of 84.40 against US dollar in early trade

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