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New Delhi: India's fossil fuel emissions are projected to rise by 4.6 per cent in 2024, while China could see a marginal rise of 0.2 per cent, according to new research by a group of international scientists. As the UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, discussed raising trillions of dollars to tackle <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword>, the group of scientists known as the "Global Carbon Project" warned that emissions from fossil fuels -- the main driver of warming -- could hit a record 37.4 billion tonnes in 2024, up 0.8 percent from 2023 levels. This comes despite rapid growth in renewable energy and a landmark agreement at COP28 in Dubai last year to move away from fossil fuels. The "<keyword id="23948569" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Global-carbon-budget-2024" source="keywords">Global Carbon Budget 2024</keyword>" report said total global CO2 emissions are set to go up from 40.6 billion tons in 2023 to 41.6 billion metric tons in 2024, which is on course to become the warmest year on record. "The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked," Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter's Global Systems Institute, who led the study, said. The 'Global Carbon Project' team said India, the world's most populous country and fastest-growing major economy, may see its fossil fuel emissions rise by 4.6 percent. According to a UN report released last month, India's greenhouse gas emissions surged by 6.1 per cent in 2023, contributing to 8 per cent of the global total. However, the country's historical contribution to global CO2 emissions stands at only 3 per cent. India's per capita emissions remain low at 2.9 tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e), far below the global average of 6.6 tCO2e. India, the world's third-largest greenhouse gas emitter, has pledged to reach net zero emissions (balancing emissions with removals) by 2070 and aims to achieve 500 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030. China's emissions, which make up 32 per cent of the global total, are likely to increase slightly by 0.2 per cent, though there is a chance they could decline, according to the data released on Wednesday. Emissions from the United States and the European Union, which contribute 13 per cent and 7 per cent of the global total, are both set to decline, with drops of 0.6 per cent for the US and 3.8 per cent for the EU. Emissions from the rest of the world, which together account for 38 per cent of global emissions, could see a rise of 1.1 per cent. The researchers said that in 2024, coal emissions will likely increase by 0.2 per cent, oil by 0.9 per cent, and gas by 2.4 per cent, globally. Coal, oil, and gas contribute 41 per cent, 32 per cent, and 21 per cent of global fossil CO2 emissions, respectively. However, given the uncertainty in projections, it remains possible that coal emissions could decline in 2024, they said. The report also pointed out that emissions from international aviation and shipping, which account for 3 per cent of global emissions and are tracked separately from national or regional totals, are expected to rise by 7.8 per cent in 2024. However, these emissions will still be 3.5 per cent below the 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Globally, emissions from land-use changes, like deforestation, have dropped by 20 per cent over the past decade but are expected to rise in 2024. Permanent CO2 removal through reforestation and new forest planting now offsets about half of the emissions from permanent deforestation, they added. Technology-based CO2 removal accounts for only a tiny fraction -- around one-millionth -- of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. The report said that emissions from fires in 2024 have been above the average since the beginning of the satellite record in 2003, particularly due to the extreme 2023 wildfire season in Canada (which continued into 2024) and severe drought in Brazil. Land and ocean carbon sinks continued to absorb around half of the total carbon emissions, despite being negatively affected by climate change.

Global fossil emissions to reach record high in 2024; India's share to rise by 4.6 pc: Report

<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword> requires an investment support of USD 1.4 trillion — an average of USD 28 billion per year — to become a net-zero economy by 2070 and raising <keyword id="20260327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-resources" source="keywords">financial resources</keyword> for adaptation and mitigation action of this scale is an "unprecedented challenge", according to the <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> 2023-24 tabled in Parliament on Monday. Reaching net zero means achieving a balance between greenhouse gas emissions and the amount of these gases removed from the atmosphere by either natural processes, such as photosynthesis, or by other methods of carbon capture and storage. The consolidated report on the state of the economy in the previous year said India's climate action has been largely financed through domestic resources and the flow of international finance has been "very limited". Citing the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) data, the report said bridging the "substantial funding gap" necessitates allocating 2.5 per cent of India's annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to <keyword id="20018880" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="green-finance" source="keywords">green finance</keyword>. "Preliminary estimates indicate that the aggregate investment support required by India to achieve its 2070 net-zero target will be USD 1.4 trillion at an average of USD 28 billion per year. Raising financial resources for <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword> adaptation and mitigation actions of this scale is an unprecedented challenge," the document read. A 2022 report by the Climate Policy Initiative found that domestic sources accounted for the majority of green finance in India, at 87 per cent and 83 per cent in financial years 2019 and 2020 respectively. While international sources are increasing (from 13 per cent in FY 2019 to 17 per cent in FY 2020), the economic survey said they are still insufficient to meet India's net-zero target. "Mobilising substantial capital from traditional sources presents multifaceted challenges in emerging economies like India. The perceived sovereign risks associated with emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) and the capital-intensive nature of such projects, coupled with lengthy gestation periods and evolving regulatory frameworks, can create misalignment between investor expectations and project timelines," the government said. The economic survey also noted that the flows of global capital to <keyword id="20200084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="developing-countries" source="keywords">developing countries</keyword> have been impeded by high costs of capital. Despite securing a good rating on its green-bond framework, Indian sovereign <keyword id="20177085" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="green-bonds" source="keywords">green bonds</keyword> have hardly received any "greenium" from private investors. It is more a "wall of capital" than a "flood of capital" that is waiting to fund energy transition in EMDEs. It is just not mobile. All of these together have severely hampered the flow of finance for green-transition projects, the survey said. "Greenium" or green premium refers to the savings an issuer of a green bond realises on the associated coupon payment because the bond is green. Financial support to help middle-income and poor countries fight climate change will be at the centre of this year's UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, where the world will reach the deadline to agree on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) -- the new amount developed nations must mobilise every year starting 2025 to support climate action in developing countries. But achieving consensus will not be easy, given the disappointing progress made on major conflict points at the mid-year UN climate talks in Bonn, Germany. At the 2009 UN climate conference in Copenhagen, rich nations pledged to provide USD 100 billion annually from 2020 to help developing countries mitigate and adapt to climate change. However, delays in achieving this goal have eroded trust between developed and developing nations and have been a continual source of contention during annual climate negotiations. In May, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) claimed that developed countries had met the long-standing USD 100 billion-a-year promise by providing nearly USD 116 billion in <keyword id="20000757" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-finance" source="keywords">climate finance</keyword> to developing countries in 2022, with nearly 70 per cent of the money given in the form of loans. However, international non-profit organisation Oxfam last week said climate finance provided by rich countries in 2022 totalled no more than USD 35 billion. Developing nations argue that they cannot be expected to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions faster if developed countries -- historically responsible for climate change -- do not provide enhanced financial support. Rich countries are now expected to raise more than USD 100 billion, with developing countries, including India, demanding trillions of dollars to tackle climate change.

Raising massive financial resources for net-zero goal unprecedented challenge: Economic Survey

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Global fossil emissions to reach record high in 2024; India's share to rise by 4.6 pc: Report

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