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<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="3658" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="India">India</keyword> and <keyword id="1334" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="China">China</keyword> have both invested in their armored forces since the 1962 war on their disputed border in the <keyword id="52569" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="himalayas">Himalayas</keyword>.</li><li>The armor that both sides fielded during another recent period of heightened tension on that border show that a future war could be more destructive.</li></ul><p>Two months ago, the Indian and Chinese militaries <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56147309" target="_top">pulled back</a> their forces stationed around Pangong Lake, on their disputed border in the western Himalaya mountains.</p><p>The pullback, described as a "disengagement" by India's Defense Ministry, was meant to be a first step to ease tensions on the disputed border - <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-photos-show-border-buildup-after-deadly-china-india-clash-2020-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">swaths of which have been heavily militarized</a> since 20 Indian and at least <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-acknowledges-deaths-in-indian-border-clash-for-first-time-2021-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">four Chinese soldiers died</a> in a medieval-style brawl in the nearby Galwan River Valley almost a year ago.</p><div type="image" title="India China troops soldiers Pangong Ladakh border" height="720" width="960" msid="82407120" hostid="261"></div><p>The Indian Army <a href="https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/1361600793678241794" target="_top">released</a> photos, videos, and <a href="https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/1362660165208530945" target="_top">aerial images</a> of the pullback, showing Chinese troops dismantling bunkers, removing tents, and evacuating the area.</p><p>The most interesting images, though, were the ones that showed the large number of <keyword id="71883" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Tanks">tanks</keyword> and <keyword id="3160282" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="armored-vehicles">armored vehicles</keyword>. Indian media <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/china-surprises-india-with-pace-of-withdrawal-pulls-out-200-tanks-in-2-days-101613088444899.html" target="_top">reported</a> that China alone withdrew 200 tanks from the area.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amid-border-dispute-tensions-how-china-and-india-militaries-compare-2020-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sheer sizes of the armored forces indicates</a> that both sides were quite serious about their military buildups, and that the next violent incident on the border <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-general-warns-china-border-dispute-could-escalate-to-war-2020-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">could escalate into something far more deadly</a>.</p><h2>Armor in the Himalayas</h2><div type="image" title="Indian military trucks in Ladakh" height="1333" width="2000" msid="82407121" hostid="261"></div><p>In general, large-scale armor deployments in mountainous and high-altitude regions are rare, especially in the Himalayas.</p><p>The low air pressure, freezing conditions, and rough terrain make operating and maintaining such vehicles difficult and often lead to losses from wear and tear or mechanical failure.</p><p>Tanks and armored vehicles have to be restarted for up to 30 minutes every two or three hours to prevent them from freezing, <a href="https://thewire.in/security/india-china-pullback-pangong-tso-winter" target="_top">according to one retired Indian general</a>.</p><p>That operational challenge is believed to have been a significant factor in both countries' decisions to pull back their armor from Pangong Tso.</p><div type="image" title="India China troops soldiers Pangong Ladakh border" height="1333" width="2000" msid="82407122" hostid="261"></div><p>"These operational issues simply cannot be ignored either by Beijing or Delhi for a variety of operational reasons that are common to both forces," a high-ranking Indian Army officer <a href="https://thewire.in/security/india-china-pullback-pangong-tso-winter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">told The Wire</a>.</p><p>That is also the reason armor - and aircraft, for that matter - played a very limited role in the <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Lessons_of_History_The_Chinese_Peopl/BLUtKP-JpgsC?hl=en&amp;gbpv=0pv=0" target="_top">month-long war</a> India and China fought in the region in 1962. During that war, India <a href="https://swarajyamag.com/defence/when-india-airlifted-tanks-to-ladakh-to-halt-the-invading-chinese-army" target="_top">airlifted</a> six AMX-13 light tanks to an area just south of Pangong Tso, but the feat was extremely difficult, and there were no large-scale tank battles.</p><p>The 1962 war itself was an embarrassment for India, which had over 8,000 soldiers killed, wounded, captured, or missing and lost the territory Aksai Chin to China. China lost 722 soldiers killed and 1,697 wounded.</p><h2>Modern tank forces</h2><div type="image" title="India army Arjun tank beach Chennai" height="1333" width="2000" msid="82407123" hostid="261"></div><p>Both India and China set about building up their militaries after the 1962 war.</p><p>Today, India's tank force is made up primarily of three models. Two of them, the <a href="https://guardingindia.com/china/exclusive-why-are-the-indian-army-trusting-t-72-ajeya-tanks-for-lac/" target="_top">T-72 "Ajeya"</a> and <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/meet-indias-t-90m-bhishma-tank-russian-tech-indian-made-136987" target="_top">T-90 "Bhishma"</a> main battle tanks (MBTs), are built in India using Russian designs. The third, the <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-what-is-the-arjun-main-battle-tank-mk-1a-7188226/" target="_top">Arjun</a>, is of Indian design.</p><p>The Russian tanks, designed to operate in the cold, make up most of India's fleet of about 4,000 tanks. The Arjun has had a <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-indias-army-hates-its-homemade-arjun-tank-119911" target="_top">troubled rollout</a>, and only 124 are in service.</p><p>China's People's Liberation Army, or PLA, maintains a large number of legacy models from the Cold War, like the Type 59, Type 69, and Type 80/88 tanks, but China's tank force is centered on three modern models: the <a href="https://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.com/2017/12/20/the-pla-loves-its-thousands-of-type-96-tanks/" target="_top">Type 96</a> and <a href="http://www.military-today.com/tanks/type_99.htm" target="_top">Type 99</a> MBTs, and the new <a href="http://www.military-today.com/tanks/ztq_15.htm" target="_top">Type 15</a>.</p><p>While the Type 96 and Type 99 are MBTs, the Type 15 is one of the few light tanks developed this century.</p><div type="image" title="China army type 99 tank Army Games Russia" height="1334" width="2000" msid="82407126" hostid="261"></div><p>The Type 96 and Type 99 weigh about 42 tons and 54 tons, respectively, and are armed with 125 mm guns, whereas the Type 15 weighs just 35 tons and has a 105 mm gun.</p><p>By comparison, India's T-72, T-90, and Arjun tanks weigh about 41 tons, 46 tons, and 68 tons, respectively. The T-72 and T-90 are armed with 125 mm guns and the Arjun with a 120 mm.</p><p>Despite being smaller and under-gunned, the Type 15 is far more capable in the mountainous terrain of the Himalayas than its Indian counterparts.</p><p>The Type 15 is just one of the PLA's <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1190083.shtml" target="_top">numerous new weapon systems</a> designed with mountain operations in mind, and China has <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93-FeziqiLA" target="_top">shown </a><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93-FeziqiLA" target="_top">it</a><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93-FeziqiLA" target="_top"> off in a number of live-fire drills</a> in Tibet.</p><p>Both the PLA's Xinjiang and Tibet military commands have <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202102/1214633.shtml" target="_top">received</a> Type 15s. They have also been deployed to the Sino-Indian border, <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-india-deploys-t-72-t-90-tanks-infantry-combat-vehicles-along-lac-in-eastern-ladakh-2845676" target="_top">as have</a> India's T-72 and T-90s.</p><h2>At the 'roof of the world'</h2><div type="image" title="India China tanks armor Pangong Ladakh border" height="1332" width="2000" msid="82407127" hostid="261"></div><p>The <a href="https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/1361600793678241794" target="_top">images</a> and a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9ZfCggVOM" target="_top">video</a> released by the Indian military appear to indicate that the pullout around Pangong Tso was a coordinated event in which tanks were purposely shown to withdraw one at a time.</p><p>Indian T-72 and BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/1361614678284140544/photo/1" target="_top">can be seen</a> on the Indian side of the border, as can a number of small fighting positions and foxholes.</p><p>The Chinese armored force that can be seen is more diverse. A few of the tanks <a href="https://twitter.com/PBNS_India/status/1361612912062730243/photo/2" target="_top">appear</a> to be legacy models, likely Type 80/88s. There <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/dh-galleries/photos/in-pics-indian-chinese-troops-disengage-from-pangong-lake-951782#5" target="_top">also appear</a> to be several modern models, most likely Type 96s or Type 99As.</p><p><a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/dh-galleries/photos/in-pics-indian-chinese-troops-disengage-from-pangong-lake-951782#6" target="_top">Another image</a> shows at least 12 Chinese <a href="https://www.armyrecognition.com/china_chinese_light_armored_armoured_vehicle_uk/zbd-04_zbd97_armoured_infantry_fighting_vehicle_technical_data_sheet_specifications_information_uk.html" target="_top">ZBD-04 IFVs</a> and three other armored vehicles, possibly tracked variants of the <a href="http://www.military-today.com/missiles/hq_17.htm" target="_top">HQ-17</a> short-range surface-to-air-missile system, <a href="https://www.armyrecognition.com/china_artillery_vehicles_and_weapon_systems_uk/pgz-07_twin_35mm_self-propelled_anti-aircraft_gun_data_sheet_specifications_description_pictures.html" target="_top">Type 09</a> self-propelled anti-aircraft artillery units, or a combination of both.</p><p>It's unclear if the tanks and IFVs were always deployed so close to one another or if they were only brought forward for verification during the disengagement.</p><p>What is clear is that both sides are far more mechanized, capable, and lethal than they were in 1962.</p><p>The pullback from Pangong Tso has not been followed by additional pullbacks in other contested areas, as was originally hoped. Recent reporting <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3131031/china-india-border-dispute-was-new-delhis-pull-out-pangong-tso" target="_top">suggests</a> some Indian officials may regret pulling back from a strategically important area with little to show for it.</p><p>Despite the difficult conditions in a region known as the "roof of the world," flare ups along the border are still a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112" target="_top">real possibility</a>.</p><p>With so much heavy hardware present, future fighting in the area could be much deadlier than before.</p>

Photos of tanks and armored vehicles in the Himalayas show that China and India's next border showdown could be much deadlier

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Disputes between <keyword id="3658" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="India">India</keyword> and <keyword id="1334" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="China">China</keyword> over their border in the Himalayas have intensified in recent months, after a deadly clash between their troops in June.</li><li>That adds to broader competition between India and China on land and at sea around Asia, but recent military agreements with the US allow India to watch rival Chinese forces more closely.</li></ul><p>As tension between India and China has increased in recent months, the US military has helped India keep an eye on Chinese forces, senior US military commanders said in November.</p><p>A <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/indian-troops-unarmed-and-surprised-in-china-clash-families-say-2020-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">deadly brawl</a> on India and China's disputed border in the Himalayas in June was their first such clash in decades. Since then both have <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-photos-show-border-buildup-after-deadly-china-india-clash-2020-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reinforced their positions</a>, and India has had help monitoring Chinese forces.</p><p>"From the real-world standpoint, we've gotten closer this year with India, especially on the <keyword id="656002" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Intelligence-sharing">intelligence sharing</keyword>, particularly related to the situation that's occurring on their northeast border with China," Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, head of US Pacific Air Forces, said at an event in November.</p><p>"We've been doing quite a bit of intelligence sharing, as much as we can, with them to help out our great friend, India," added Wilsbach, who took command in July.</p><div type="image" title="India troops soldiers Ladakh" height="1333" width="2000" msid="79885495" hostid="261"></div><p>That sharing likely has been facilitated in recent weeks by the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement, a military agreement the US and India signed in late October.</p><p>BECA "will allow us to expand our partnership and exchange foundational information," Vice Adm. Robert Sharp, director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and the US signatory on the deal, said at <a href="https://www.cfr.org/event/conversation-vice-admiral-robert-sharp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a separate event</a> last month.</p><p>BECA gives India access to topographical, nautical, and aeronautical data and allows the US to provide advanced navigational aids and avionics, a defense industry source <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-asia/india-u-s-set-for-military-pact-on-satellite-data-during-pompeo-visit-idUSKBN27711P" target="_blank" rel="noopener">told Reuters</a> ahead of the signing. Geospatial data provided under the deal will give Indian missiles "<a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/beca-the-deal-that-will-make-indian-missiles-deadlier-has-finally-been-signed/articleshow/78885862.cms#:~:text=India%20and%20the%20US%20inked,information%20between%20the%20two%20countries" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a killer edge</a>" in targeting, as one Indian media outlet put it.</p><p>"That exchanging and sharing of foundational information is a good basis to start to operate ... off the same map," Sharp said.</p><h2>Crossing the hump</h2><div type="image" title="India runway Port Blair Andaman Nicobar Islands" height="903" width="1400" msid="79885496" hostid="261"></div><p>BECA is the fourth of four foundational agreements. A 2002 deal allowed sharing of classified military information. A 2016 logistics deal allows each military to use the other's facilities for repair or resupply. A third deal in 2018 gave India access to secure communications equipment, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-india-comcasa-deal-improves-ability-to-communicate-and-track-subs-2018-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">allowing closer coordination</a> with US forces.</p><p>There have already been demonstrations of cooperation under these deals. US ships have refueled Indian warships, and a US maritime patrol aircraft recently refueled in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the eastern <keyword id="12350" type="ENTERTAINMENT" weightage="60" keywordseo="Indian-Ocean">Indian Ocean</keyword>, which the US government called "<a href="https://www.dla.mil/AboutDLA/News/NewsArticleView/Article/2397837/us-aircraft-inaugural-refueling-in-india/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a historical event</a>."</p><p>The agreements are a sign of India softening the strict non-aligned stance it held throughout the Cold War, which is driven in part by recent US overtures and Chinese aggressiveness.</p><p>"These two complimentary forces, I think, are pushing India toward sort of more overt balancing activities and more confidence in establishing a meaningful strategic partnership with the US," said Jeff Smith, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation think tank.</p><p>The shift reflects "a revolution in the way that India views the world and aligns with partners in Asia," Hervé Lemahieu, director of the Power and Diplomacy Program at Australia's Lowy Institute think tank, said in October.</p><p>India "has chosen to align itself with the United States far more assertively, and with countries like Australia, with whom it doesn't really have much of a traditional relationship," Lemahieu told Insider.</p><p>Disputed land borders with Pakistan and China are likely to remain the Indian military's major focus, but New Delhi is increasingly active in the Indian Ocean - <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-china-border-clashes-could-cause-more-indian-ocean-activity-2020-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">where China's military and diplomatic presence is growing</a> - bolstering its own forces as well as its cooperation with others.</p><div type="image" title="India Navy guided-missile cruiser Princeton destroyer Chennai" height="1333" width="2000" msid="79885506" hostid="261"></div><p>The meeting where BECA was signed also reportedly included a maritime information-sharing agreement, allowing India to better track activity in the Indian Ocean. India's Information Fusion Center-Indian Ocean Region, set up two years ago, now has <a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/expanding-outreach-indian-navy-ties-up-with-21-nations-for-maritime-awareness-346490" target="_blank" rel="noopener">21 countries sharing</a> information on maritime activity in the area.</p><p>Indian foreign aid, meant to counter Chinese lending, also continues to flow despite recent economic headwinds. "That tells you, I think, how important building these relationships are to India in terms of countering China in the region," Rani Mullen, a professor at William and Mary and expert on South Asia, <a href="https://www.hudson.org/events/1901-video-event-partnering-in-the-indo-pacific122020" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> at a recent think-tank event.</p><p>India is "is deepening its defense diplomacy" and "being more ambitious" with those partnerships, Lemahieu said, but there are still questions about how India will apply the agreements it spent two decades negotiating with the US.</p><p>"We went on for years negotiating over the dots and the T's ... and I guess in some ways it's a good thing that we've crossed that hump," Ashley Tellis, an expert on <keyword id="6356001" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">international</keyword> security at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said at an event in November.</p><p>"Now the question to my mind is, OK, you've done the agreements. What are you going to do about them? How are you actually going to implement them?" Tellis added. "This is where I think India still has a long ways to go."</p><p>In the weeks since signing BECA, India has leased two US-made MQ-9B surveillance drones to monitor its maritime and land boundaries, an acquisition facilitated by policy <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-arms-trump/u-s-relaxes-rules-to-export-more-aerial-drones-idUSKCN24P2IC" target="_blank" rel="noopener">changes</a> in both <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-leases-hi-tech-us-naval-drones-to-boost-surveillance-intel/story-NeW0gNA1HYJ44V3m9C5qAL.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">countries</a>. Those exchanges and others under the foundational agreements will likely inspire more trust, feeding a "virtuous cycle," Smith said.</p><p>"In many cases, India benefits more than the US does from these military cooperation agreements," Smith told Insider. "The practitioners are operationalizing these agreements and realizing that it brings real benefit to India."</p>

The US is helping India keep an eye on China's military, top US commanders say

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The disputed borderlands between <keyword id="3658" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="India">India</keyword>, <keyword id="1334" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="China">China</keyword>, and <keyword id="3001" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Pakistan">Pakistan</keyword> are increasingly becoming a flashpoint for conflict.</li><li>The world can't ignore these growing challenges, and while the international community should look to help manage the situation, direct US involvement is probably not the best way forward, writes Abby Pokraka, a program coordinator for the Center for Arms-Control and Non-Proliferation.</li></ul><p>For decades, India and Pakistan have clashed over <keyword id="6354495" type="LOCATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="kashmir">Kashmir</keyword>, the mountainous region both countries claim. But to make matters more complicated, China has a stake in the area, too. The Aksai Chin region — located between Kashmir and Tibet — is under Chinese control and has been a source of conflict between India and China since 1962.</p><p>The borderlands between these three nuclear-armed states is increasingly a flashpoint for conflict. The international community ignores these growing challenges at its peril and should be looking for ways to help manage potential crises in the region.</p><p>And while the United States can play a role, in this particular instance, direct US involvement is probably not the best way forward.</p><div type="image" title="Kashmiri women walk past an Indian security personnel during restrictions after the scrapping of the special constitutional status for Kashmir by the government, in Srinagar, August 11, 2019. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui" height="2333" width="3500" msid="78409592" hostid="261"></div><p>The Kashmir region has been disputed since British India was <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/in_depth/south_asia/2002/india_pakistan/timeline/1947.stm">partitioned</a> into India and Pakistan in 1947. The first Indo-Pakistani war began after armed Pakistani tribesmen invaded Kashmir. The ceasefire agreement on January 1, 1949 established the Line of Control (LoC) — the de facto border between Indian-controlled and Pakistani-controlled Kashmir.</p><p>The second Indo-Pakistani war took place in <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1961-1968/india-pakistan-war">August 1965</a> after a series of clashes across the LoC, with a third war starting when Pakistan erupted in civil war in 1971.</p><p>Tensions only escalated when India became a nuclear power in 1974 and Pakistan in 1998. Conflict across the LoC continues today, with the most recent clash occurring in February 2019. It was the deadliest altercation in three decades, with <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/topic/pulwama-attack">40 members</a> of India's police force killed.</p><p>India and China have a similarly violent history over the Line of Actual Control, which divides Chinese-controlled territory from Indian-controlled territory high up in the Himalayas. After the 1962 Sino-Indian War, an uneasy truce was established, but regular conflicts create a simmering tension between the two countries.</p><p>The Indian government <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/india/north/story/chinese-troops-had-dismantled-bunkers-on-indian-side-of-line-of-actual-control-in-august-2011-160035-2013-04-25">claims</a> that Chinese troops cross the LAC multiple times a year, leading to increased volatility between the nations. Chinese forces killed <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/16/world/asia/india-china-border.html">20 Indian</a> soldiers in hand-to-hand combat along the border in June.</p><div type="image" title="Indian soldiers troops Himalayas Ladakh" height="1666" width="2500" msid="78409594" hostid="261"></div><p>This was the deadliest confrontation between the two nations in four decades, and negotiations <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/02/asia/india-china-himalayas-border-intl-hnk/index.html">did not</a> diffuse the situation. Tempers flared again when China and India <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/02/asia/india-china-himalayas-border-intl-hnk/index.html">accused</a> each other of illegally trespassing on the other's side and firing warning shots in early September, which would be the<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/08/world/asia/india-china-border.html"> first time guns were used</a> amid tensions. Little has been done to resolve any of this.</p><p>China was drawn into a dispute between India and Pakistan when India revoked Kashmir's <a href="https://lite.cnn.com/en/article/h_e57b0ab399a59b28e5373e2fd0890cfa">autonomy</a> in August 2019 and wanted to <a href="https://tribune.com.pk/story/2251770/kashmirs-role-boiling-china-india-tensions">incorporate</a> parts of "Xinjiang and Tibet into its Ladakh union territory," which China believes violates its dominion due to its occupation of Tibet. It appears that over the last year the situation in Kashmir has not gotten better.</p><p>"Mass <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/08/05/india-revoked-kashmirs-autonomy-year-ago-what-has-happened-since-then/">disenfranchisement</a> of Kashmiri Muslims, deteriorating security, economic backsliding and a contentious political agenda" negatively contributes to the tension between India and Pakistan, exacerbating the historical friction in the region.</p><p>It seems clear that after decades of poor relations, the tensions in this part of the world may reach a <a href="https://tribune.com.pk/story/2251770/kashmirs-role-boiling-china-india-tensions">boiling point</a>.</p><div type="image" title="india kashmir.JPG" height="1373" width="2000" msid="78409596" hostid="261"></div><p>Finding a solution to these half-century conflicts seems daunting, but it is necessary. While many nations have fought throughout history, a conflict between nuclear-armed states carries an unbearable risk of escalation.</p><p>To start, these countries can take small steps to stabilize the security of the region and pave the way for better relations. Starting a dialogue, bilateral or trilateral, can improve communication in the longer term, which can help reduce the likelihood of conflict.</p><p>Establishing crisis communications was an important step the United States and the Soviet Union took in the wake of the Cuban Missile Crisis, and de-escalation practices the two countries implemented in the early 1960s remained in place through the end of the Cold War.</p><p>A third party could help facilitate regional discussions. Given its history in the region, the United States might have seemed like a good option for such facilitation, but that is not the case at this time.</p><p>The Trump administration's <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-prime-minister-khan-islamic-republic-pakistan-bilateral-meeting/">offer</a> to mediate negotiations between India and Pakistan in July 2019 was generally ignored. Beyond that, the administration's own growing Cold War posture towards Beijung has deteriorated whatever diplomatic leverage it might have had in this situation. This week, President Trump took aim at China before the United Nations, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/22/world/americas/UN-Trump-Xi-China-coronavirus.html">blaming it for the global COVID pandemic</a>.</p><p>At this point, there is no reason China would see the United States as a desirable mediator for any regional conflict.</p><div type="image" title="Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping" height="2522" width="4800" msid="78409600" hostid="261"></div><p>Moreover, it may not be America's responsibility to step into the void. Perhaps there is an opportunity for other nations to take that lead. China and India both have substantial trade relationships with <a href="https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/russia-hopes-sco-may-facilitate-indo-pak-talks-too-138273">Russia</a>, which may be willing to moderate discussions.</p><p>Of course, Russia's own differences with China might complicate such an effort. The United Kingdom has made efforts in recent years to better its relationship with <a href="https://www.britishcouncil.org/research-policy-insight/insight-articles/india-and-uk-2050-vision">India</a> and <a href="https://nation.com.pk/10-Sep-2020/pakistan-uk-vow-to-enhance-relations">Pakistan</a>, putting London in the position to be a potential mediator. The Gulf states, with the help of the United States, have <a href="https://www.voanews.com/south-central-asia/us-gulf-countries-helped-ease-india-pakistan-tensions">diffused</a> tensions between India and Pakistan in the past, so perhaps they could offer further assistance.</p><p>In the meantime, friction among China, India, and Pakistan continues to grow. The only way to diffuse the tension and prevent destructive escalation is through diplomacy.</p><p>Other countries need to step up and work to reduce the hostilities. Make no mistake, a large-scale, regional conflict among nuclear-armed states would have global consequences.</p>

Tensions between 3 nuclear-armed powers are rising toward the boiling point

<ul class="summary-list"><li>In late August, Indian and Chinese troops clashed on their disputed border high in the Himalayas, another brawl in a summer of heightened tensions.</li><li>The latest clash killed one soldier and wounded another from <keyword id="3658" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="India">India</keyword>'s <keyword id="321996" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Special-Frontier-Force">Special Frontier Force</keyword>, a secretive unit made up largely of ethnic Tibetans, many of whom oppose <keyword id="1334" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="China">China</keyword>'s control of their home region.</li></ul><p>At the end of August, tensions between India and China flared with another <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/31/india-captures-chinese-camp-disputed-ladakh-violence-erupts/" target="_top">brawl</a> between their soldiers high in the Himalayas.</p><p>The brawl around Pangong Tso lake in Ladakh, along the disputed border known as the Line of Actual Control, reportedly involved over 500 men and lasted about three hours.</p><p>India claimed it was responding to a Chinese incursion and that an Indian special-operations battalion seized a Chinese camp in a stealth operation a few days later.</p><div type="image" title="India fighter jet Ladakh" height="1666" width="2500" msid="78038830" hostid="261"></div><p>This incident comes slightly more than two months after a <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1563892" target="_top">similar clash</a> in the same region killed 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese troops.</p><p>No casualty figures have been released for the latest brawl, but one Indian commando was <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-china-tibet/tibetan-soldiers-death-near-tense-india-china-border-sheds-light-on-covert-unit-idUSKBN25T2JN" target="_top">killed</a> and another wounded when they ran into a minefield.</p><p>Those soldiers were part of the Special Frontier Force (SFF), an Indian special-operations unit composed almost entirely of ethnic Tibetans.</p><p>The episode thrust the secretive unit into the spotlight. Now, almost six decades after its founding, it's fulfilling what many members and other Tibetans in India feel is its main purpose: to challenge China.</p><h2>Establishment 22</h2><div type="image" title="India soldiers troops Special Frontier Force" height="1406" width="2100" msid="78038834" hostid="261"></div><p>The SFF, units of which are known to Indian soldiers as Vikas battalions, was established during India and China's 1962 border war. Losing that war made India realize that it needed dedicated mountain troops capable of conducting reconnaissance and strike operations at high altitudes.</p><p>The best candidates came from India's large Tibetan refugee community, many of whom fled to India with their leader, the Dalai Lama, after a failed <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/rebellion-in-tibet" target="_top">u</a><a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/rebellion-in-tibet" target="_top">prising</a> in <keyword id="6364076" type="LOCATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="tibet">Tibet</keyword> in 1959.</p><p>The refugees were acclimated to the high altitudes and motivated to fight Chinese communist forces. Some were veterans of the uprising, and a few were previously <a href="https://www.historynet.com/cias-secret-war-in-tibet.htm" target="_top">trained</a> by the CIA in guerrilla warfare.</p><p>The unit was created by India's domestic intelligence agency, the Intelligence Bureau, before being taken over by the Research and Analysis Wing, India's foreign intelligence agency.</p><p>It was originally called "Establishment 22" before being renamed the SFF in 1967. The CIA assisted with training and equipment until the early 1970s.</p><p>They were dedicated mountain troops and masters of patrolling and fighting in the unforgiving climate and altitudes of the Himalayas.</p><h2>A history of dedication and service</h2><div type="image" title="India army soldiers Special Frontier Force" height="1666" width="2500" msid="78038838" hostid="261"></div><p>The SFF was not created in time fight the Chinese in 1962, and although a central reason for its creation was to confront China, it was rarely put in a position to do so — possibly because the Indians worried its members, <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3100153/rare-spotlight-indias-mysterious-special-frontier-force-amid" target="_top">passionate</a> about countering China, might escalate tense situations.</p><p>But the SFF has served in battle numerous times. During the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971, 3,000 SFF commandos were <a href="https://www.thedailystar.net/wide-angle/phantoms-the-hills-168325" target="_top">dropped</a> behind Pakistani lines in Bangladesh, capturing strong points and preventing Pakistani soldiers from retreating into Burma. Fifty SFF commandos were killed and 190 wounded.</p><p>They fought against Sikh insurgents in <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/fyi/story/1984-operation-blue-star-amritsar-1251681-2018-06-06" target="_top">Operation Blue Star</a> and helped <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/operation-meghdoot-34-years-ago-how-india-won-siachen-5135429/" target="_top">secure</a> Indian control of the Siachen Glacier in 1984 and then fought in the Kargil War in 1999.</p><p>SFF commandos also secretly assisted the CIA in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1978/04/13/cia-put-nuclear-spy-devices-in-himalayas/61cf72f2-dfdc-4586-a695-11a6d823a097/" target="_top">tra</a><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1978/04/13/cia-put-nuclear-spy-devices-in-himalayas/61cf72f2-dfdc-4586-a695-11a6d823a097/" target="_top">cking</a> China's nuclear weapons program by <a href="https://www.wired.com/2013/04/cia-himalayan-spies/" target="_top">helping</a> install and maintain advanced monitoring devices along the Sino-Indian border.</p><p>Gurdip Singh Uban, the son of the SFF's first commander and a veteran of the Indian military who fought with the SFF, <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/special-frontier-force-china-line-of-actual-control-lac-ladakh-jawaharlal-nehru/article32532182.ece" target="_top">recently described</a> them as "fearless" and said they "never, ever hesitate."</p><h2>A message to China</h2><div type="image" title="India army soldiers Special Frontier Force" height="1695" width="2500" msid="78038842" hostid="261"></div><p>The SFF reports directly to India's Cabinet secretariat and is not a part of the Indian military. Estimates put the unit's numbers between 3,000 to 5,000 troops.</p><p>Indians and Nepalese fighters known as Gurkhas are now also in the SFF, but its identity is still distinctly Tibetan; the unit's insignia, for instance, is a Tibetan snow lion — the same kind found on the Tibetan flag.</p><p>Because of their origin and mission, the unit has largely been kept secret. Indian officials asked the family of Tenzin Nyima, the 33-year veteran commando killed in the August clash, not to talk about his service.</p><p>But recent events have given the unit renewed attention. Its members took the Chinese camp in late August, and <a href="https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/himachal/tibetans-give-warm-send-off-to-special-frontier-force-on-way-to-indo-china-border-136267" target="_top">video</a> has emerged of Tibetans in India giving warm send-offs to SFF soldiers heading to the border — part of a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/31/world/asia/india-china-troops-border.html" target="_top">massive buildup</a> of forces by both India and China.</p><div type="image" title="India Special Frontier Force soldier funeral Tibet" height="1666" width="2500" msid="78038845" hostid="261"></div><p>The new focus has led to hopes that the SFF, and the Tibetan community in India as a whole, will get the recognition and attention they deserve. It has also stirred the emotions of some Tibetans living in India, who see a chance to face their archenemy.</p><p>"Most of us Tibetans join the unit because this is our only chance to fight the Chinese," one SFF veteran recently <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3100153/rare-spotlight-indias-mysterious-special-frontier-force-amid" target="_top">told</a> the South China Morning Post.</p><p>Those factors give their deployment more than military significance, melding a long-standing territorial dispute with much deeper ethnic and political tensions that the Chinese Communist Party has suppressed at home for decades.</p><p>"China's position is very clear," a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said earlier this month. "We firmly oppose any country providing convenience in any form for the 'Tibet independence' forces' separatist activities."</p>

A secretive unit India sent to its disputed border with China is more than just a military challenge to Beijing

China is seeking to set up more robust logistics in about a dozen countries, including three in India's neighbourhood, to allow its army to project and sustain its power at greater distances, a <keyword id="6362444" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="pentagon">Pentagon</keyword> report has said. <br /><br /> In addition to the three Indian neighbours -- Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Myanmar -- the other countries where China is considering to base its military logistics and infrastructure are Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola, and Tajikistan, the report said on Tuesday. <br /><br /> In its annual report "Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China (PRC) 2020" that was submitted to the US Congress on Tuesday, the Pentagon said these potential <keyword id="95524" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chinese-military">Chinese military</keyword> logistics facilities are in addition to the Chinese military base in Djibouti, which is aimed at supporting naval, air and ground forces projection. <br /><br /> "A global PLA (Peoples Liberation Army) military logistics network could both interfere with US military operations and support offensive operations against the United States as the PRC's global military objectives evolve," the Pentagon said in the report. <br /><br /> China has probably already made overtures to Namibia, Vanuatu, and the Solomon Islands, it said, adding the known focus areas of PLA planning are along the Seal Lines of Communication from China to the Strait of Hormuz, Africa, and the Pacific Islands. <br /><br /> Similarly, the Pentagon said, Beijing uses One Belt One Road (OBOR) to support its strategy of national rejuvenation by seeking to expand global transportation and trade linkages to support its development and deepen its economic integration with nations along its periphery and beyond. <br /><br /> "OBOR projects associated with pipelines and port construction in Pakistan intend to decrease China's reliance on transporting energy resources through strategic chokepoints, such as the Strait of Malacca," it said. <br /><br /> China leverages OBOR to invest in projects along China's western and southern periphery to improve stability and diminish threats along its borders, the report said. <br /><br /> First announced in 2013, China's OBOR initiative is a signature foreign and economic policy advanced by President Xi Jinping. <br /><br /> According to the Pentagon, a global PLA military logistics network could both interfere with the US military operations and support offensive operations against the United States as the Chinese global military objectives evolve. <br /><br /> "Host nations can perform an essential role in regulating the PRC's military operations as Chinese officials very likely recognise that a stable long-term relationship with the host nation is critical to the success of their military logistics facilities," it said. <br /><br /> Chinese military academics assert that bases abroad can enable forward deployment of its forces and support military conflict, diplomatic signalling, political change, bilateral and multilateral cooperation, and training. <br /><br /> They also suggest that a military logistic network could enable intelligence monitoring of the US military. <br /><br /> In August 2017, China officially opened its first military base in Djibouti. <br /><br /> Chinese Navy Marines are stationed at the base with wheeled armoured vehicles and artillery but are currently dependent on nearby commercial ports due to the lack of a pier on base, the report said. <br /><br /> Chinese personnel at the facility have interfered with US flights by lasing pilots and flying drones, and China has sought to restrict Djiboutian sovereign airspace over the base, the report said.

Chinese military is expanding its network into at least another dozen countries, according to the US Department of Defense

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indian and Chinese troops came to blows last month in a disputed area along their mutual border in what was the deadliest such clash in more than 40 years.</li><li>The disputed northern border has been a source of tension for decades and will remain so, but growing rifts between <keyword id="3658" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="India">India</keyword> and <keyword id="1334" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="China">China</keyword> mean the <keyword id="12350" type="ENTERTAINMENT" weightage="60" keywordseo="Indian-Ocean">Indian Ocean</keyword> will likely grow as an area of competition as well.</li></ul><p>Clashes in June between India and China high in the western Himalayas saw <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amid-border-dispute-tensions-how-china-and-india-militaries-compare-2020-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the first deadly encounter</a> between their forces there in four decades. Both sides appear to be disengaging, and India's northern border, parts of which are in dispute with Pakistan and China, will remain a point of focus for its military.</p><p>But India's southern maritime approaches, where increasing Chinese naval activity was already a concern, may gain even more attention from New Delhi in the wake of those clashes.</p><p>"On the military side, I think we have to stay on guard. The situation is very fragile, even tenuous," former Indian Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao, also former Indian ambassador to China and the US, said at an <a href="https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/events/webcast-crossing-precipice-india-china-border-clash" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Asia Society Policy Institute event</a> this week.</p><p>"Diplomatically, [India has to] keep our channels open with China, but at the same time, obviously, seek possibilities of closer convergence with friends and partners in the Indo-Pacific."</p><p>China is "clearly seeking to improve strategic advantage for itself through naval outreach and construction of ports and facilities," in that region, Rao added. "We know that, and all these [facilities] have clear military potential. So we need to leverage our assets, in the Indian Ocean region particularly, better."</p><h2>Wary of China's active navy</h2><p><div type="image" title="India navy ship vessel Philippines" height="3262" width="4919" msid="76902499" hostid="261"></div></p><p>Like other countries, India has watched Chinese activity in the Indian Ocean warily, especially since a 2014 visit by Chinese submarines to Sri Lanka, where <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/indias-concern-with-beijing-expansion-grows-with-sri-lanka-port-deal-2017-8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Beijing's growing influence</a> has concerned India and others.</p><p>India's navy said in 2015 that it overlooks "strategic sea lanes" that link the country's "security and prosperity inextricably to the seas." The recent reorientation <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amid-simmering-tension-with-china-india-is-increasing-naval-strength-2017-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has been called</a> "a tectonic shift in India's security calculus."</p><p>India has long sought to retain independence in <keyword id="6356001" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">international</keyword> affairs, but increasingly contentious relations with China have affected that thinking.</p><p>A <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tensions-between-china-and-india-continue-year-after-doklam-standoff-2018-8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">73-day standoff</a> between China and India in Doklam, a disputed area in the eastern Himalayas, in summer 2017 "clarified for India that signing, for example, some information-sharing agreements with the US could actually benefit India," Tanvi Madan, an expert on India at the Brookings Institution, said <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/world/2020/06/podcast-india-china-us-triangle" target="_blank" rel="noopener">on a recent episode</a> of the New Statesman's World Review podcast.</p><p>"India during Doklam saw the benefits of some of the capabilities that it had acquired from the US — the P-8I maritime surveillance aircraft, which flew right up to the India-China boundary for reconnaissance during that [standoff]," Madan said. "So you see then a decision, for example, to buy more of those."</p><p><div type="image" title="India navy Boeing P-8I Neptune anti-submarine maritime aircraft" height="521" width="1000" msid="76902501" hostid="261"></div></p><p>Since Doklam, those <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-china-more-us-made-sub-hunting-planes-2018-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">P-8I aircraft</a> have been more active in the Indian Ocean, where the Indian navy <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/will-the-india-china-border-conflict-lead-to-a-naval-war/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">is working</a> to increase its capabilities and to keep an eye on Chinese warships.</p><p>Indian officials have previously announced <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-is-beefing-up-its-navy-to-counter-chinas-powerful-fleet-2018-12" target="_blank" rel="noopener">intentions to dramatically expand</a> its navy, and this month, New Delhi said it would buy <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2020/07/06/india-accelerates-weapons-purchases-in-wake-of-border-clash-with-china/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$5.5 billion</a> in weaponry. Much of it is for the army and air force, reflecting continued emphasis on the land border, but navy projects include spare parts for Kilo-class submarines and other Russian-built warships.</p><p>In the wake of Doklam, India also signed <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/r-india-boosts-maritime-reach-with-seychelles-pact-to-build-naval-facilities-2018-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a 20-year pact</a> with the Seychelles to build naval infrastructure there. In late 2018, India and the US signed a communications agreement <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-india-comcasa-deal-improves-ability-to-communicate-and-track-subs-2018-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">allowing closer coordination</a> of military operations such as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-and-india-practiced-hunting-subs-in-the-indian-ocean-2019-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tracking subs</a>.</p><p>India has been <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/national/india-japan-to-ink-pact-to-share-military-logistics-781355.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in talks</a> with Japan on a military mutual logistics support deal, which New Delhi already <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/06/india-australia-sign-deal-military-bases-200604083007978.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">agreed to</a> with Australia and <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/lemoa-already-fully-operational/article24904359.ece" target="_blank" rel="noopener">with the US</a>.</p><p>"India's maritime enthusiasm and the Indo-Pacific approach is fairly recent. Many of these partnerships and engagements are foundational, but due to the absence of an active maritime-focused policies in the last decades, these agreements/partnerships are important," Darshana​ Baruah, an expert on the Indian Ocean at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said in an email.</p><h2>Using maritime leverage</h2><p><div type="image" title="India runway Port Blair Andaman Nicobar Islands" height="903" width="1400" msid="76902503" hostid="261"></div></p><p>The weeks since the clashes in Ladakh have seen more calls for India to put that navy to use.</p><p>At the end of June, Sujan Chinoy, a former Indian diplomat, <a href="https://idsa.in/policybrief/strategic-potential-andaman-nicobar-sujanchinoy-260620" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recommended</a> "opening up" the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/r-india-navy-set-to-open-third-base-in-strategic-islands-to-counter-china-2019-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Andaman and Nicobar Islands</a> in the Bay of Bengal to "friendly navies," incluing the US, Japan, and Australia, "to promote greater naval cooperation."</p><p>India's chief of naval staff, Adm. Karambir Singh, <a href="https://www.thequint.com/voices/opinion/india-china-geostrategy-indian-ocean-region-strait-of-malacca-indian-and-chinese-navy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has said</a> the navy told the government it could act in the Malacca Straits, which connect the Indian and Pacific oceans, in response to tension on the northern border. And this month, a former chief of naval staff, retired Adm. Arun Prakash, <a href="https://www.thequint.com/voices/opinion/india-china-navy-maritime-strategy-conflict-indian-ocean-south-china-sea-trade-choke-points" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suggested</a> using that "maritime leverage" to add "weight to India's negotiating position."</p><p>India has also engaged more with partners, which it has been historically cautious about doing. In June, India <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-to-take-a-call-on-australias-inclusion-in-malabar-exercises-with-japan-us/article32034664.ece" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said it was open</a> to Australia joining this year's Malabar naval exercises as an observer, something New Delhi has hesitated to do for years.</p><p>Recent tensions "will likely underscore to strategists in New Delhi and Beijing that they should be prepared for sustained competition across domains, and that India cannot take for granted its partnerships in the region," Joshua White, a professor of South Asia Studies at Johns Hopkins University, said in an email.</p><p><div type="image" title="US Navy aircraft carrier Indian Ocean Malabar" height="714" width="1000" msid="76902505" hostid="261"></div></p><p>"The decision to use India's advantage at sea is completely political and will depend on Delhi's political appetite," Baruah said. "There most certainly is an advantage and a role to be played, which can be maximized in collaboration with India's Indo-Pacific partners."</p><p>Logistics exchanges and the use of Indian Ocean islands are just a few potential areas of collaboration, and India is likely to pursue a combination of them, Baruah said. Partnering with the US and others in the region offers "options to maximise some of [India's] advantage in the maritime domain."</p><p>India has long valued strategic autonomy, and while it's likely to seek to retain some of that freedom, there's reason to think it will work more closely with an international coalition to counter an increasingly aggressive China, <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-india-border-conflict-strategic-shift-by-shashi-tharoor-2020-07" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according</a> to Shashi Tharoor, a former Indian minister of state for external affairs.</p><p>Baruah expected an increase in maritime cooperation either way.</p><p>"What I hope is that [the] Ladakh issue has highlighted the maritime option available to India," Baruah said. "I hope this provides a chance to raise the urgency to clear some of the bureaucratic challenges in recognizing the role of the navy and maritime partnerships in India's strategic and security interests."</p>

India's deadly mountain-top showdown with China could lead to more military activity at sea

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A hand-to-hand skirmish high in the Himalayas this month was the deadliest border clash between <keyword id="3658" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="India">India</keyword> and <keyword id="1334" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="China">China</keyword> in decades.</li><li>The two sides are working to ease tensions, but the showdown still has the potential to spark a broader war between two of the world's largest and well-equipped militaries — here's how those two forces stack up.</li></ul><p>A medieval-style brawl between Chinese and Indian soldiers on their border in <keyword id="26604" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="ladakh">Ladakh</keyword> this month turned a usually bloodless dispute into a potential cause for war between the world's two most populous countries.</p><p>The brawl lasted six hours and killed 20 Indian soldiers. Chinese officials have not said how many of their soldiers were killed or wounded but have <a href="https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2020/jun/22/china-finally-admits-it-lost-less-than-20-soldiers-in-clash-with-india-2159915.html?fbclid=IwAR0pxiHVF-AmAV6iaEW9FKvYDeTejMoMMoSvrvLBvosmhH5R2sFX4svchig">admitted</a> to losing "less than 20" troops after India reportedly handed over 16 bodies.</p><p>The clash is the biggest development in a standoff that began in early May and was the first time <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/forgotten-in-fog-of-war-the-last-firing-on-the-india-china-border/article31827344.ece">since 1975</a> that the two nuclear-armed nations shed blood over their decades-long <keyword id="6417196" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="border-dispute">border dispute</keyword>.</p><p>Both sides are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-china/indian-and-chinese-military-agree-to-disengage-on-disputed-himalayan-border-idUSKBN23U115" target="_blank" rel="noopener">working to ease tensions</a> in the region, but the days since, both have deployed hundreds of thousands of soldiers. India and China have also <a href="https://www.opindia.com/2020/06/while-china-builds-new-fortifications-india-moves-its-jets-and-helicopters-to-forward-bases-along-lac-report/">moved</a> advanced air assets to forward operating bases in the region and begun building new fortifications.</p><h2>The world's 2 biggest militaries</h2><p><div type="image" title="Indian army soldiers" height="982" width="1500" msid="76580460" hostid="261"></div></p><p>China and India today are giants.</p><p>The two countries together <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/19/health/india-china-world-population-intl-hnk/index.html#:~:text=China%2520and%2520India%2520currently%2520account,and%2520India%2520to%25201.3%2520billion.&amp;text=That%2520would%2520put%2520China's%2520population,1.5%2520billion%2520forecast%2520for%2520India.dia.">account</a> for about 37% of the world's population and are the second- and fifth-largest <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-5-largest-economies-in-the-world-and-their-growth-in-2020-2020-01-22">economies</a>, respectively. They are also the second- and third-largest <a href="https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2020/global-military-expenditure-sees-largest-annual-increase-decade-says-sipri-reaching-1917-billion">spenders</a> on defense and are <a href="https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp">ranked</a> fourth and fifth on the Global Firepower Index, which ranks potential military strength.</p><p>China and India also have the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/militaries-most-active-duty-soldiers-troops-2018-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">two largest active-duty armies</a>, China with about 2.1 million active servicemen and India with roughly 1.4 million.</p><h2>China has a technological advantage</h2><p><div type="image" title="China army base Himalayas" height="1729" width="2500" msid="76580464" hostid="261"></div></p><p>On the whole, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is widely seen as more technologically advanced than India's military.</p><p>In China's arsenal are stealth fighters, a larger number of nuclear submarines, more military <a href="https://ucsusa.org/resources/satellite-database">satellites</a>, and a wider array of modern vehicles and small arms.</p><p>Some of those weapon systems were built with places like the Himalayas in mind, such as the <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/type-15-meet-tank-china-could-use-fight-india%25E2%2580%2594or-launch-amphibious-invasion-119781">Type 15</a> light tank and a new 155 mm vehicle-mounted howitzer; both were <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5EueZdJW_DM">recently featured</a> in televised drills in Tibet.</p><p><div type="image" title="China Chinese troops soldiers Tibet training" height="1809" width="2500" msid="76580474" hostid="261"></div></p><p>This technology gap "owes primarily to the fact that the Chinese have invested more resources into modernizing their military for a long time at a sustained and high level," Timothy Heath, a senior international and defense researcher at the Rand Corporation, told Insider.</p><p>The PLA has gone through a massive modernization and restructuring effort since the 1990s, which has been one of the biggest priorities for its leaders, <a href="https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/stratperspective/china/ChinaPerspectives-10.pdf/">especially</a> President Xi Jinping.</p><p>China has also shifted from buying advanced equipment from foreign suppliers to being able to produce its own domestic designs.</p><p><div type="image" title="India border soldier troops Himalayas" height="1667" width="2500" msid="76580482" hostid="261"></div></p><p>Conversely, India has had to rely on foreign suppliers for advanced equipment, and its domestic industries have not been able to produce the type of equipment in the numbers needed to rival China.</p><p>Until recently, India had not been able to invest the amount of money in defense that countries like China, Russia, and the US do because of its smaller economy. India also needs to send resources to address more immediate threats.</p><p>"Part of the issue with India is that their security problem is much more fragmented," Heath said, noting India's long-time fight with insurgents and the constant challenge from Pakistan.</p><h2>The technology gap is smaller the Himalayas</h2><p><div type="image" title="Indian fighter jet Himalayas Ladakh" height="1667" width="2500" msid="76580492" hostid="261"></div></p><p>But none of this means that the <a href="https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/2020-03/india-china-postures/China%2520India%2520Postures.pdf">outcome is preordained</a>. While the PLA has more advanced equipment, most of its best assets and units are focused in eastern and southern China, poised to face off against the US, Japan, or Taiwan.</p><p>A war with India would be fought largely in the tough, mountainous terrain of the Himalayas, landscape that is radically different from what most of the PLA is trained to deal with. Moreover, India's military is a <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/imbalance-of-power">capable and well-equipped force</a>.</p><p>In particular, the Indian Air Force's (IAF) Su-30MKI all-weather multirole air-superiority fighter is regarded as superior to the Chinese J-8, J-11, and Su-27 fighters stationed in the region.</p><p><div type="image" title="India Chinook helicopter Himalayas Ladakh" height="1666" width="2500" msid="76580501" hostid="261"></div></p><p>The IAF also has a number of US-made Apache attack helicopters and Chinook heavy-lift helicopters already deployed, and unlike the Chinese pilots, they have more dedicated experience flying in the region's <a href="https://www.drivespark.com/off-beat/why-planes-dont-fly-over-himayalas-tibet/articlecontent-pf84128-025108.html">very difficult conditions</a>.</p><p>Further, India has more advanced air assets already in the region and closer to potential conflict zones, whereas China's air bases are fewer and further inland.</p><p>India is also expecting its order of S-400 air-defense systems from Russia this fall. This will free up more IAF aircraft for ground-attack roles.</p><h2>India's army is modernizing</h2><p><div type="image" title="India Brahmos cruise missile" height="920" width="1400" msid="76580514" hostid="261"></div></p><p>India's army is going through a modernization process. It's <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkxWgZZlHeU">replacing</a> its domestically made INSAS rifle and AK-47s with the modern AK-203 and SIG 716 assault rifles. It is also replacing the World War II-era Sterling submachine gun with Caracal CAR 816s and for the first time introducing dedicated sniper rifles like the Barret M95 and Scorpio TGT.</p><p>In February, the army <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-us-sign-contract-for-additional-apache-attack-choppers/articleshow/74299279.cms">signed</a> a contract for six US-made Apache helicopter gunships and is expected to soon order a number of Indian-made HAL light combat helicopters, which are designed to operate in the Himalayas.</p><p>When it comes to armor, India's T-90 and T-72 tanks should also be worthy adversaries to China's Type 99 and Type 96 tanks.</p><p>India also has the Brahmos ram-jet supersonic cruise missile. Developed in a joint venture between India and Russia, it is capable of reaching Mach 3, making it one of the fastest missiles in the world. It can be launched from ground and naval launchers and was recently <a href="https://swarajyamag.com/insta/amid-mounting-tensions-with-china-iafs-brahmos-a-supersonic-cruise-missile-is-now-ready-for-combat-use">approved</a> for use by the Indian Air Force.</p><h2>Experience is a factor</h2><p><div type="image" title="Indian soldiers troops Himalayas Ladakh" height="1666" width="2500" msid="76580525" hostid="261"></div></p><p>The Indian army also has an edge in experience. India has fought numerous wars with Pakistan, most recently the Kargil War in 1999. It has also fought decades-long insurgencies in Jammu and Kashmir and was involved in the Sri Lankan Civil War.</p><p>One Chinese analyst <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-has-largest-most-experienced-mountain-army-in-the-world-says-chinese-military-expert/story-4eR8hDrrshV7j59OHvfIYO.html">acknowledged</a> that India is "the world's largest and experienced country with plateau and mountain troops."</p><p>Conversely, China has not fought a major war with anyone since its brief war with Vietnam in 1979 and has used <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/what-motivates-chinese-peacekeeping">UN peacekeeping missions</a> as a way for its troops to gain experience.</p><p><div type="image" title="China Chinese troops soldiers Tibet training" height="1833" width="2500" msid="76580537" hostid="261"></div></p><p>However, as Heath <a href="https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/11/chinas-military-has-no-combat-experience-does-it-matter.html">points out</a>, "combat experience does not automatically translate into military advantage."</p><p>In particular, the Chinese "are in a better position to concentrate and mass force than the Indians," Heath says. "It doesn't matter how good and experienced your troops are if you're outnumbered 10 to one."</p><p>Moreover, China's ability to move forces means it may be able to quickly redeploy some of its best equipment and assets, like stealth fighters and ballistic-missile systems.</p><h2>A naval confrontation</h2><p><div type="image" title="Chinese China navy submarine" height="920" width="1400" msid="76580546" hostid="261"></div></p><p>While China and India don't share a maritime border, they both have vested interests in the Indian Ocean, particularly in the Strait of Malacca, the shipping channel that connects the Indian and Pacific oceans.</p><p>The vast majority of China's oil imports flow through that strait, as does a large percentage of global trade.</p><p>China is <a href="https://bpr.berkeley.edu/2019/08/26/the-malacca-dilemma-a-hindrance-to-chinese-ambitions-in-the-21st-century/">keenly aware</a> of its importance and is determined strengthen its presence in the Indian Ocean. China has established <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-troops-to-overseas-base-operational-security-concerns-for-us-2017-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a naval base in Djibouti</a>, may be <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/hisutton/2020/06/02/chinas-new-high-security-compound-in-pakistan-may-indicate-naval-plans/#7c1ce8631020">building</a> another in Pakistan, and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/world/asia/china-sri-lanka-port.html">controls</a> a port in Sri Lanka.</p><p>The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has benefited greatly from investment and reforms. It is now one of the <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/a27532437/china-now-has-more-warships-than-the-us/">largest and strongest</a> navies in the world and has advanced vessels like nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarines, guided-missile frigates and destroyers, and two aircraft carriers with more on the way.</p><p><div type="image" title="India navy Kalvari submarine" height="667" width="1000" msid="76580556" hostid="261"></div></p><p>India too has advanced naval assets and <a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/top-story/indian-navy-to-build-24-submarines-including-six-nuclear-warships/story/392809.html">plans</a> to build more. It currently has one active aircraft carrier with another expected to start sea trials next year and has a number of advanced frigates and submarines, including two nuclear ones.</p><p>But the Indian Navy is still outclassed. China's Southern Theater Command alone has more diesel-electric attack submarines and guided-missile frigates than the entire Indian fleet.</p><p>However, India has the same advantage that China enjoys in the East China Sea: proximity to its mainland. Any fight with the PLAN would likely be in India's backyard, which means it can use land-based aircraft and coastal defenses against PLAN ships.</p><h2>Ballistic and nuclear missiles</h2><p><div type="image" title="India missile" height="1454" width="2200" msid="76580563" hostid="261"></div></p><p>The biggest fear, of course, is that any conflict between China and India will turn nuclear. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute <a href="https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2020/nuclear-weapon-modernization-continues-outlook-arms-control-bleak-new-sipri-yearbook-out-now">estimates</a> that China has 320 nuclear warheads while India has 150.</p><p>Though China has more advanced delivery systems and warheads, the proximity of the two countries means that even conventional missiles and aircraft could still deliver massive destruction to Chinese and Indian cities.</p><p>However, most observers don't believe that a conflict stemming from current border disputes will lead to nuclear war. Both countries have a "no first use" policy, meaning they will only use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack.</p><p><div type="image" title="China soldiers India border guard" height="1094" width="2300" msid="76580571" hostid="261"></div></p><p>The mass use of ballistic missiles also runs the risk of unintended escalation and prolonging conflict, as they would likely only create stretches of no man's land.</p><p>The disputes in question may not be seen as worth such destruction. As Heath put it: "risking such massive losses over a barren and desolate stretch of land up in the mountains — it's hard to see how that would be justified."</p><p>Any war between China and India, then, will most likely see troops attempting to take and hold land in the harsh Himalayas, where air support will be limited, and Indian efforts to fend Chinese ships off of its mainland.</p>

India and China's deadliest border clash in decades risks war between nuclear-armed rivals — here's how the world's 2 largest militaries stack up

<keyword id="1021371" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Michael-Pillsbury">Michael Pillsbury</keyword>, senior adviser to the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=US+President+Donald+Trump&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">US President Donald Trump</a>, said that the US arms sales to India and China-India border disputes are among the top six "sensitivities" senior Chinese officials have listed for the new <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=Trump+administration&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">Trump administration</a>.<br />
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He also said that under Trump, the US-China relationship will be of critical interest to India, affecting its own grand strategy.<br />
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Pillsburry is a China expert and has been recently appointed as an adviser to Trump. He said that Chinese have never come out in open and objected <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=India&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">India</a> purchasing weapons from <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=US&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">US</a> or anyone but might do it now.<br />
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"Six areas of outsized importance to <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=President+Xi+Jinping&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">President Xi Jinping</a> and the ruling elite have been revealed. The Chinese have never openly objected to India's weapons purchases from the US or anyone. The fact that they would do so now is significant. This and the South Korean missile shield are on their list," he told TOI.<br />
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Also, China has asked that Trump not meet <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=Dalai+Lama&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">Dalai Lama</a>. According to Pillsburry, China is nervous about the THAAD (terminal high altitude area defence) missile interceptors and SPY radar systems that the US has agreed to position in <keyword id="5565" type="COUNTRY" weightage="20" keywordseo="South-Korea">South Korea</keyword>.<br />
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He also said China would not like the US to add to these, which could neutralise China's ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) capability that targets the US mainland.<br />
<br /> "Whether President Trump supports India's claim to <keyword id="46408" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Arunachal-Pradesh">Arunachal Pradesh</keyword> and continues US arms sales to India already requested by PM Modi, now America's largest customer of weapons, is another Chinese worry about the coming year," Pillsbury said at the recent Raisina Dialogue.<br />
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However, China would ideally like Trump to agree with its denial of the UNCLOS verdict on its South China Sea claims, said Pillsburry.

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