<div class="image-container float_right"><div class="image"><img src="http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/5220feb76bb3f70b358b457d-600-450/breaking-bad-chemistry-meth.png?maxX=480" border="0" alt="breaking bad chemistry meth" width="480" />AMC screencapBreaking Bad</div></div>This is a new indicator that I'm following that appears to be a leading indicator for the economy.
From the American Chemistry Council: <a href="http://www.americanchemistry.com/Media/PressReleasesTranscripts/ACC-news-releases/Leading-Economic-Indicator-Shows-US-Economy-on-the-Upswing.html">Leading Economic Indicator Shows U.S. Economy on the Upswing; Consumer-Driven Production Gains Strengthen</a>
The pendulum of the U.S. economy remains on the upswing, according to the American Chemistry Council’s (ACC) monthly <keyword id="1846814" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Chemical-Activity-Barometer">Chemical Activity Barometer</keyword> (CAB), released today. The economic indicator, shown to lead U.S. business cycles by an average of eight months at cycle peaks, increased 0.1 percent over July on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis, marking its fourth consecutive monthly gain. The barometer is now up 3.8 percent over a year ago, the largest year-over-year increase since September 2010. The index itself is at its highest point since June 2008. Prior CAB readings for March through July were all revised.
“As we approach the fourth quarter, the U.S. economy seems to be making strides, compared to the baby steps of earlier in the year,” said Dr. Kevin Swift, chief economist at the American Chemistry Council. “The Chemical Activity Barometer is showing a strengthening of year-over-year growth and suggests an economy which finally may be gaining momentum,” he added.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in the 3-month moving average for the Chemical Activity Barometer compared to Industrial Production. It does appear that CAB (red) generally leads Industrial Production (blue).
And this suggests that economic activity is increasing.
<div class="image-container"><div class="image"><img src="http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/5220fd326bb3f703358b4586-1037-765/cabaugust2013.jpg" border="0" alt="chemical activity" width="800" /><keyword id="1745510" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Calculated-Risk">Calculated Risk</keyword></div></div>

The 'Chemical Activity Barometer' Confirms That The US Economy Is On An Upswing

Black women are spending more than $1,000 on Botox to avoid sweating out their edges while exercising

<ul><li>Created on May 26, 1896, the <keyword id="70622" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Dow-Jones-Industrial-Average">Dow Jones Industrial Average</keyword> turned 125 years old today.</li><li>The <keyword id="6357440" type="DEFINITION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Stock-Market">stock market</keyword> index was created by Wall Street Journal founder Charles Dow and was created to help serve as a barometer of the US economy.</li><li>Here's what happened to the 12 original companies of the <keyword id="55718" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Dow-Jones">Dow Jones</keyword> Industrial Average.</li><li><a href="https://newsletter.businessinsider.com/join/4np/10-things-opening-bell?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestce=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell.</a></li></ul><hr />The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a> turned 125 years-old today, as it was launched on May 26, 1896, when it notched its first daily closing price at 40.94.Created by Charles Dow, co-founder of Dow Jones &amp; Company, Edward Jones, and The Wall Street Journal, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has served as a popular health barometer of the US economy and financial <keyword id="31671" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets">markets</keyword> to investors for well over a century. The index has risen on average 7.69% per year since its launch, and has seen 1,464 record closes, according to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/dow-jones-industrial-average-celebrates-125-years-as-wall-streets-bellwether-11622001661">The Wall Street Journal,</a> citing data from Dow Jones Market Data. It has survived two world wars, the Great Depression, two global pandemics, and countless economic recessions. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average is only the second oldest stock market index. The oldest title goes to the Dow Jones Railroad Average, which was created in 1884 and is now known as the Dow Jones Transportation Index.Charles Dow laid the groundwork for technical analysis with the launch of these two indexes, which serve as key components to <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dow-theory-stock-market-bullish-outlook-signal-further-gains-transportation-2020-10-1029663292">his Dow Theory studies.</a>The index has undergone numerous revisions since its creation. The index first started with 12 members, then expanded to 20 members in 1916, and ultimately settled on 30 members in 1928. While no stock has been in the Dow for the entire 125 years, only two original <keyword id="6354298" type="DEFINITION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Stocks">stocks</keyword> of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are still publicly traded.The stock with the longest continuous tenure in the index is <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/pg-stock">Procter &amp; Gamble</a>, which was added in 1932. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently operated by the S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices, which is a joint venture between <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/spgi-stock">S&amp;P Global</a> and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/cme-stock">CME Group.</a>Here's <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/education/spdji-the-dow-turns-120.pdf">what happened</a> to the <a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/04/09/what-happened-to-the-first-12-stocks-on-the-dow.aspx">12 original companies</a> of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.1. American Cotton OilFate: Dissolved in 1889. Distant ancestor of BestFoods, which was ultimately acquired by Unilever.2. American SugarFate: Removed from the index in 1930. Evolved into Amstar Holdings, which changed its name to Domino Foods.3. American TobaccoFate: Removed from the index in 1899, added again in 1924, removed again in 1930, added again in 1932, and removed finally in 1985. American Tobacco was the original Tobacco Trust that was broken up in 1911 in antitrust action.4. Chicago GasFate: Acquired by Peoples Gas in 1897, which was then added to the index. Peoples Gas removed from the index in 1915. Remnants of the business are currently operated by the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/wec-stock">WEC Energy Group.</a>5. Distilling and Cattle FeedingFate: Removed from the index in 1899, added again in 1934, and finally removed in 1959. This was a whiskey trust that evolved into Millenium Chemicals.6. General ElectricFate: <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/ge-stock">GE</a> was removed from the index early on, and then added back to it in 1907. It remains a publicly traded company, but was finally removed from the index in 2018.7. Laclede GasFate: Removed from the index in 1899. Still active as a public company, though it changed its name to <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/sr-stock">Spire</a> in 2016.8. National LeadFate: Removed from the index in 1914. The company is still publicly traded, though it changed its name to NL Industries.9. North AmericanFate: Removed from the index in the late 1890s, added back in 1928, and finally removed in 1930. It was a utility that was broken up in the 1940s.10. Tennessee Coal &amp; IronFate: Absorbed by <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/x-stock">US Steel</a> in 1907.11. US LeatherFate: A trust that was dissolved in 1911, and finally liquidated in 1952. It's the only original member of the Dow with no corporate remnants still operating today.12. US RubberFate: Removed from index in 1897, but added back in 1898. Ultimately removed from index in 1928. Became Uniroyal and is now part of Michelin.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average turned 125 years old today. Here's what happened to its 12 original members.

<div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image on-image"><img src="http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/52b7ffe0eab8ea414f3fafaf-1200-924/holiday-shopping-sign-3.jpg?maxX=480" border="0" alt="holiday shopping sign" width="480" />Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</div></div>It's going to be a quiet week, but there's at least some action on the economic front today.
Via <a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/12/monday-personal-income-and-outlays.html">Calculated Risk</a>, there are two economic datapoints coming up:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Personal Income and Outlays report for November. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.
...
• At 9:55 AM, the Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for December). The consensus is for a reading of 83.5, up from the preliminary reading of 82.5, and up from the November reading of 75.1.
There's also a couple of relatively minor datapoints coming up, including the "Chemical Activity Barometer" (which monitors the chemical industry) coming out at 9.

There's Two Important Economic Datapoints Coming Out Today

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/53b0225269bedd9d638877ef-1200-924/lennar-corp-3.jpg" border="0" alt="lennar corp" /><a href="http://pictures.reuters.com/C.aspx?VP3=SearchResult_VPage&amp;VBID=2C0BXZ6NJ0YLA&amp;SMLS=1&amp;RW=1491&amp;RH=855">REUTERS/Rick Wilking</a></div></div></div>Lennar Corporation, the second largest US home builder in 2013, reported that net home orders in the quarter ended May 31, 2014 totaled 6,183, up 8.4% from the comparable quarter of 2013. Sales per active community were down about 7.5% from a year ago. Home deliveries last quarter totaled 4,987, up 11.7% from the comparable quarter of 2013, at an average sales price of $322,000, up 13.8% from a year ago. The company's order backlog at the end of May was 6,858, up 11.3% from last May, at an average order price of $343,000, up 13.6% from a year earlier. Here is a comment from Lennar's CEO in its press release.
<blockquote>"While the spring selling season was softer than anticipated by us and the investor community, the homebuilding recovery continued its progression at a slow and steady pace. The fundamentals of the homebuilding industry remain strong driven by high affordability levels, favorable monthly payment comparisons to rentals and overall supply shortages. Demand in most of our markets continues to outpace supply, which is constrained by limited land availability."</blockquote>
With respect to land, the company said in its conference call that it owned or controlled bout 164,000 homesites at the end of May, up 18.3% from last May ... That lot inventory was 7.6 times Lennar's expected level of home deliveries in 2014 - which is a lot! In its conference call officials said that the company's sizable land/lot position left it "well positioned" to take advantage of an increase in demand from first-time home buyers, but officials said that demand from first-time home buyers last quarter remained very weak - which officials attributed mainly to continued very tight mortgage lending standards. Officials also highlighted the company's relatively new multifamily rental segment, which it apparently started on concerns that a higher share of householders, especially young adults/new householders, may be more likely to be renters and/or live in urban areas than has been the case in the past. KB Home, the fifth largest US home builder in 2013, reported that net home orders in the quarter ended May 31, 2014 totaled 2,269, up 4.9% from the comparable quarter of 2013. Net orders per community last quarter were down 2.2% from a year ago. Home deliveries last quarter totaled 1,751, down 2.6% from the comparable quarter of 2013, at an average sales price of $319,700, up 10.1% from a year ago. The company's order backlog at the end of May was 3,398, up 8.6% from last May. In an excessively long opening remark on the company's earnings conference call, KB Home's CEO Jeff Mezger made two observations that raised analysts' eyebrow: he said that (1) while mortgage credit remained tight, the company has seen evidence of easing in credit standards; and (2) the company has seen some "re-emergence" of first-time home buyers. Not surprisingly he faced questions on these observations in the Q&amp;A session. On mortgage credit standards, Mezger pointed to "still high" but lower average credit scores on mortgage bonds issued, and to "anecdotal" reports of reduced "credit overlays" from "some lenders." (No story here!). On the re-emergence of first-time home buyers, Mezger said that there's been an increase in first-time home buyer purchases in some areas of Texas where job growth has been strong. Here are net orders for the quarter ended May 31, 2014 for three large home builders. (Note: Hovnanian reported result for the quarter ended April 30, 2014, but it showed net orders for May 2014 in its earnings presentation). 
<center style="text-align: left;">
<table style="width: 738px; height: 180px;" border="2" cellpadding="4">
<tbody>
<tr><th>Net Home Orders, 3 Months Ending:</th><th>5/31/2014</th><th>5/31/2013</th><th>% Change</th></tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">Lennar</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">6,183</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5,705</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">8.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">KB Home</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2,269</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2,162</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">Hovnanian</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1,799</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1,862</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-3.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">Total</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">10,251</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">9,729</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</center>
 Earlier this week, Census estimated that new SF home sales in the first five months of 2014 totaled 194,000 (not seasonally adjusted), up just 0.5% from the first five months of 2013. Net, the "spring" new home buying season, while not really a "bust," fell considerably short of "consensus" forecasts at the beginning of the year. While results varied considerably among large publicly-traded builders, overall net home orders appear to have fallen considerably short of builder expectations as well, and net order per community appear on aggregate to have declined about 6% YOY. The 13 large publicly-traded home builders I track in aggregate increased the number of lots they owned or controlled from the fall of 2011 to the fall of 2013 by about 30% -- with the bulk of the gain occurring since the middle of 2012 - and in aggregate these companies planned to increase both community counts and sales by 15-17% this year. One reason net orders have been below consensus is that many builders raised prices aggressively last year. Now that builders have substantially larger land/lot inventories - and a lot more of it is developed now compared to a year ago - it is a pretty good bet that builders' "pricing power" has fallen sharply, and that new home prices will on average (and adjusted for mix) show little if any increase for the remainder of this year.<div class="feed-footer-wrapper"><div class="feed-footer">

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You Searched For "Chemical Activity Barometer" and got 5 results

The 'Chemical Activity Barometer' Confirms That The US Economy Is On An Upswing

Calculated Risk

Black women are spending more than $1,000 on Botox to avoid sweating out their edges while exercising

Lauren Edmonds

The Dow Jones Industrial Average turned 125 years old today. Here's what happened to its 12 original members.

Matthew Fox

There's Two Important Economic Datapoints Coming Out Today

Joe Weisenthal

Here's What Home Builders Are Saying About Land Availability, Mortgage Credit, And The Return Of First-Time Buyers

Calculated Risk