<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/544f91f66bb3f7896eb3adc2-851-638/jerry-jones-jason-garrett.png" border="0" alt="jerry jones jason garrett"><p class="source"><span><a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNNFL/status/526934922846814208">ESPN</a></span></p><p class="caption">Jones talking to coach Jason Garrett in the fourth quarter.</p></img></div><p></p></div></div>During the fourth quarter of the Dallas Cowboys' 20-17 overtime loss to the Washington Redskins on Monday, Jerry Jones had a face-to-face conversation with Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett on the sideline.</p>
<p>Jones, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/how-jerry-jones-spends-his-money-2014-10">the league's most eccentric and bombastic owner</a>, has a more hands-on approach than any of his peers.</p>
<p>He took that to the extreme on Monday, coming down from the owner's box to talk to his coach.</p>
<p>After the game, Jones explained what he was doing on the sidelines during the final stages of a huge game. He said he told Garrett that Tony Romo - who went down with an ugly-looking back injury earlier in the half - was going to come back into the game.</p>
<p>"I told Jason that he would be back in," he said.</p>
<p>Based on <a href="http://www.star-telegram.com/2014/10/28/6235872/jerry-jones-i-told-jason-that.html?storylink=addthis#.VE8wBIrNZEQ.twitter&amp;rh=1">Jones' explanation of his conversation</a>, it's unclear whether he was telling Garrett to put Romo back in the game, or if he was merely telling Garrett that Romo was ready.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.star-telegram.com/2014/10/28/6235872/jerry-jones-i-told-jason-that.html?storylink=addthis#.VE8wBIrNZEQ.twitter&amp;rh=1">Clarence Hill of the Fort-Worth Star Telegram had the full quotes</a>:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">I was here during the tail end of the examination and knew he planed to come back out and play if he were needed. Of course he was needed. I felt good that he could come back out. When he saw the opportunity he did. I told Jason that he would be back in.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">We knew there were no structural issues when they gave him the X-rays. I very concerned the fact that he laid there as long as he laid there. After we looked at the play and saw that was a knee kind of to the side of the back, then we felt better about it.</p>
<p>Either way, if Jerry Jones tells you Romo is going back in, he goes back in.</p>
<p>Jones was on the sideline cheering Romo on when he emerged from the locker room (that's Garrett looking peeved in the background):</p>
<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/544f91cdecad046b3db3adc2-1013-602/screen shot 2014-10-28 at 8.52.25 am.png" border="0" alt="jerry jones jason garrett tony romo"><p class="source"><span><a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNNFL/status/526934922846814208">ESPN</a></span></p></img></div><p></p></div></div></p>
<p>Romo was lobbying hard to go back in. He appeared to have an animated conversation with the team doctor on the sidelines:</p>
<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/544f949b69bedd0570b3adca-1088-624/screen shot 2014-10-28 at 9.03.32 am.png" border="0" alt="romo doctor"><p class="source"><span>ESPN</span></p></img></div><p></p></div></div></p>
<p>It's still unclear why Jones, not the doctor, had to update Garrett on Romo's health status. </p>
<p>Brandon Weeden had engineered two scoring drives in Romo's absence. When Romo came back in for the game's final drive and overtime, he was unable to move the ball, and the Cowboys lost.</p>

Jerry Jones Explains What He Was Doing Talking To His Head Coach In The Middle Of A Game

<p class="p1"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/567afd99e6183edf2e8b479e-4604-3453/gettyimages-501212068.jpg" alt="Russell Wilson" data-mce-source="Patrick Smith/Getty Images" /><p class="source"><span>Patrick Smith/Getty Images</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>We've arrived at the penultimate week of the regular season, and if the Eagles vs. Redskins showdown for the NFC East title isn't indicative of just how wonky this NFL season's been, I don't know what is. </p><p class="p1">As my grandfather told me last weekend - as he scolded me about my NFL pessimism - there are no bad football games, there are only good football games between bad teams.</p><p class="p1">He's evidently more optimistic than I am, but luckily for both of us, and everyone, Week 16 has a whole bunch of genuinely good games.</p><p class="p1">Between the Packers/Cardinals, Broncos/Bengals, and the terrific slate of NBA games (Cavs/Warriors!), you've got more than enough ways to shamelessly avoid your in-laws and extended family.</p><p class="p1">So happy holidays, everyone, and enjoy the games. This year, I got my two nephews baseball bats to teach them the importance of motivation! </p><p class="p1"><strong>[Last week: 8-7-1]</strong></p><p class="p1"><strong>[Season: 111-98-7]</strong></p><h3 class="p1">San Diego Chargers (+5) @ Oakland Raiders</h3><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/567aee5fc08a8017028b4994-3728-2796/ap_624944917710.jpg" alt="Khalil Mack" data-mce-source="Ben Margot/AP" /><p class="source"><span>Ben Margot/AP</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p class="p1">The Chargers showed up for their last game at the Qualcomm Center, and I think the Raiders show up for what might be their last game at The Coliseum. </p><p class="p1"><strong>The pick: Raiders -5</strong></p><p class="p1"> </p><h3 class="p2">Washington Redskins (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles</h3><p class="p2">What if I told you that Kirk Cousins and Sam Bradford would square off in a division-deciding game?  </p><p class="p2"><strong>The pick: Redskins +3</strong></p><p class="p2"> </p><h3 class="p2">New England Patriots (-3) @ New York Jets</h3><p class="p2">For as well as the Jets have been playing, this is a must-win for the Pats in order to lock up the 1-seed. Brady and Belichick aren't letting that slip away. Especially not against the Jets.</p><p class="p2"><strong>The pick: Patriots -3</strong></p><p class="p2"> </p><h3 class="p2">Houston Texans (+4.5) @ Tennessee Titans</h3><p class="p2">Brandon Weeden is going to be a starting quarterback in the playoffs for a division winner. Is this some sort of sick joke?</p><p class="p2"><strong>The pick: Texans -4.5</strong></p><p class="p2"> </p><h3 class="p2">Cleveland Browns (+12.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs</h3><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/567af2fee6183e28008b4a1e-1138-853/johnny manziel.jpg" alt="Johnny Manziel" data-mce-source="Jason Miller/Getty" /><p class="source"><span>Jason Miller/Getty</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p class="p2">This is the game Johnny Football cements himself as Cleveland's franchise quarterback. Or at the very least keeps it close against the Chiefs. Maybe?</p><p class="p2"><strong>The pick: Browns +12.5</strong></p><p class="p2"> </p><h3 class="p2">Indianapolis Colts (+1) @ Miami Dolphins</h3><p class="p2">I genuinely feel sorry for Matt Hasselbeck. He did not sign up for the sort of unrelenting physical beatdown he's suffered over the course of the season. He should be playing golf right now. Lucky for him, he'll have Chuck Pagano to golf with all of next season.</p><p class="p2"><strong>The pick: Miami -1</strong></p><p class="p2"> </p><h3 class="p2">San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Detroit Lions</h3><p class="p2">Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III are both going to be on the move over the summer, and it's my great hope that they somehow both end up in the NFC East. </p><p class="p2"><strong>The pick: Lions -9</strong></p><p class="p2"> </p><h3 class="p2">Dallas Cowboys (+6) @ Buffalo Bills</h3><p class="p2">Matt Cassel, bless his heart, threw an interception on a play that was also flagged for intentional grounding. That's fantastic stuff. </p><p class="p2"><strong>The pick: Bills -6</strong></p><p class="p2"> </p><h3 class="p2">Chicago Bears (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers</h3><p class="p2">Truly nothing to watch for in this one.</p><p class="p2"><strong>The pick: Bears +3</strong></p><p class="p2"> </p><h3 class="p2">Carolina Panthers (-7) @ Atlanta Falcons</h3><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/567af592e6183e1d008b4a68-1149-862/josh norman.jpg" alt="Josh Norman" data-mce-source="Streeter Lecka/Getty" /><p class="source"><span>Streeter Lecka/Getty</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p class="p2">I think <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/14424066/handing-holiday-gifts-all-32-nfl-teams-nfl">Bill Barnwell</a> best summed up this whole BATGATE imbroglio:</p><p class="p2" style="padding-left: 30px;"><span>Does anybody really think that there was ever a threat that Carolina players were going to attack </span>Odell Beckham Jr<span>. with a bat? Reports that Panthers players used </span><a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/14416271/odell-beckham-jr-new-york-giants-irked-carolina-panthers-bat-stunt" target="_new">homophobic trash talk</a><span> before the game are what really deserve genuine scrutiny, not the possibility that they were somehow going to execute a Tonya Harding-style attack on the star receiver.</span> </p><p class="p2"><strong>The pick: Panthers -7</strong></p><p class="p2"> </p><h3 class="p2">Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) @ Baltimore Ravens</h3><p class="p2">Should be a snooze, although as we saw last week, the Steelers are good at making their lives much more difficult than they need to. </p><p class="p2"><strong>The pick: Steelers -10</strong></p><p class="p2"> </p><h3 class="p2">Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints</h3><p class="p2">A definite snooze.</p><p class="p2"><strong>The pick: Jaguars +3.5</strong></p><p class="p2"> </p><h3 class="p2">St. Louis Rams (+13.5) @ Seattle Seahawks</h3><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/567af72ac08a80880e8b4926-1136-852/todd gurley .jpg" alt="Todd Gurley " data-mce-source="Michael B. Thomas/Getty" /><p class="source"><span>Michael B. Thomas/Getty</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p class="p2">The Rams always seem to play well against Seattle.</p><p class="p2"><strong>The pick: Rams +13.5</strong></p><p class="p2"> </p><h3 class="p2">Green Bay Packers (+4.5) @ Arizona Cardinals</h3><p class="p2">What a bummer about Tyrann Mathieu. I still think the Cards are good enough to make the Super Bowl, but it's going to be tougher now.</p><p class="p2"><strong>The pick: Cardinals -4.5</strong></p><p class="p2"> </p><h3 class="p2">New York Giants (+6) @ Minnesota Vikings</h3><p>Thanks, Tom Coughlin, for the two Super Bowls. It was fun while it lasted. (Was it?)</p><p class="p2"><strong>The pick: Vikings -6</strong></p><p class="p2"> </p><h3 class="p2">Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos</h3><p>Let's see what A.J. McCarron is really made of against the league's most handsome 6'7 quarterback, Brock Osweiler.</p><p class="p2"><strong>The pick: Broncos -3.5</strong></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-cramer-on-how-to-win-fantasy-football-league-mad-money-cnbc-nfl-2015-12">Jim Cramer reveals how to win your fantasy football league</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="lhYnlneTrqPVJq4ZMzfAB2qgjpjP6HzX" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', 'lhYnlneTrqPVJq4ZMzfAB2qgjpjP6HzX',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div>

NFL WEEK 16: Our official picks for this weekend's games

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/524ef366eab8ea24118b1681-1200-900/brian-hoyer-2.jpg" border="0" alt="brian hoyer" /><p class="source">Hannah Foslien/Getty Images</p><p class="caption">Brian Hoyer</p></div><p></p></div></div>There are two things I'd like to talk about before making my picks for this week. </p>
<p>First, what happened to Cleveland Browns quarterback Brian Hoyer on Thursday night is super sad. </p>
<p>Hoyer was an undrafted player who backed up Tom Brady for his first three years in the league. He was then cut, and bounced between Pittsburgh and Arizona last year. </p>
<p>This year he was backing up Brandon Weeden in Cleveland. When Weeden got hurt, Hoyer had his chance. And he made the most of it. He won two games, and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-cleveland-browns-are-good-2013-10">appeared to be playing pretty well</a>. </p>
<p>Then, in his third game as a starter, he had a season-ending injury with a partial ACL tear.</p>
<p>The Browns have a solid defense, and a great kick returner. But with Weeden as QB, it's hard to see them winning very many games. It's easy to imagine them getting a top-10 draft pick. This year's draft is deep with QB talent, so expect the Browns to pick a QB in the first round. </p>
<p>That means Hoyer will be hosed. He'll be returning from an injury - a fourth-year journeyman QB with a two-game resume competing against someone the team will have made a serious investment in. </p>
<p>It's possible defenses would have figured him out and he would have lost a ton of games this year anyway. It's also possible, however, that he would have gotten better and better, and established himself as a good quarterback.</p>
<p>Now, all of that's out the window. </p>
<p>Imagine dedicating your entire life to one goal - being a starting quarterback - finally reaching that goal and then having it all taken away from you in one moment. Heartbreaking. </p>
<p>Hopefully he recovers, and he gets a second chance. </p>
<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/51eed35beab8ead659000007-1200-1800/josh-freeman-2011.jpg" border="0" alt="josh freeman 2011" /><p class="source">Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images</p><p class="caption">Au revoir, Josh Freeman. </p></div><p></p></div></div>Second thing on the agenda: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Boy are they a total mess. </p>
<p>I don't know the ins and outs of what's going on in Tampa, but it looks ugly. The team seems to be <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/josh-freeman-cut-by-tampa-bay-buccaneers-2013-10">trashing Josh Freeman as it kicks him out of the building</a>. Greg Schiano appears to embody the worst aspects of an overly enthusiastic college coach trying to take over a professional team. </p>
<p>And yet... if there's one team in the league that I see as having reason for hope, it's the Bucs. They seem destined to be next year's Kansas City Chiefs.</p>
<p>The Bucs will stink this year, which will give them a good draft pick. With the right quarterback and better coach, the team could be great. The defense is solid, the offensive pieces around the quarterback appear to be good. They just needs those two pieces, then voila, they're a contender. </p>
<p>Now, on to this week's picks...</p>
<p>I nailed Thursday night's game on Twitter, <a href="https://twitter.com/jyarow/status/385890950360211456">calling for the Browns to win</a>. I must say I got a little nervous when Hoyer went down, but it all worked out. That makes me 4-1 on Thursday game this year. <a href="https://twitter.com/jyarow">Follow me on Twitter</a> to get that pick in the future. </p>
<p>Last week I went 5-1 with my picks, which astounds me. Picking games is hard, especially when you watch as little football as I do. For the year I am now 14-12-1, which means if you're foolish enough to bet based on my picks, you're making money. I do not recommend betting on my picks. <keyword id="103436" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="NFL">NFL</keyword> games are largely a crapshoot. You are just burning your money. But, it is a fairly thrilling way to burn money. I've never literally set money on fire, but I'm willing to bet it's not exciting. </p>
<p>I'm not feeling great about this week's picks. There's a lot of in-between games.</p>
<p>As always, I took five games I feel good about. The lines are from the Las Vegas Hilton, <a href="http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/matchups/">via Vegas Insider</a>. </p>
<h2><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/523c45da6bb3f768298d4db4-1200-600/andy-reid-gatorade-bath.jpg" border="0" alt="andy reid gatorade bath" /><p class="source">NFL Network</p><p class="caption">Soon to be hall of fame coach Andy Reid.</p></div><p></p></div></div><strong>Kansas City is on the road against the Tennessee Titans, who are getting 3 points. </strong></h2>
<p>I'm new to picking games. I think there are unwritten rules. Or maybe they're written. I don't know. But, one of those wise man-type things people say is, "Don't take road favorites." This is the only reason I can think of to stay away from this game. The Chiefs are good. The Titans, while not bad, just lost their quarterback. Do we really believe that Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Titans backup, is going to beat Kansas City's fantastic secondary? We do not. </p>
<p><strong>The pick: Chiefs, -3</strong></p>
<p><strong>(For non-gamblers like my boss Henry Blodget, this means I think the Chiefs win by 3 or more.)</strong></p>
<h2><strong>Philadelphia is on the road against the New York Giants, who are 1 point favorites. </strong></h2>
<p>This line opened at Eagles +14, and moved to Eagles +1. The reason? People think the Eagles can win. I'm one of those people. Maybe I'm a sucker. The Eagles are the team I root for. This year, I'm 1-2 picking Eagles games, so beware. My rationale on this one: The Eagles aren't as bad as they looked against the Broncos. The Giants just aren't any good this year. Their weaknesses match up with the Eagles' strengths, so Chip Kelly should get his second win of the year. </p>
<p><strong>The toothpick: Eagles, +1</strong></p>
<p><strong><strong>(For non-gamblers like my boss Henry Blodget, this means I think the Eagles win or lose by 1.)</strong></strong></p>
<h2><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/51f693c6ecad04fa4700001c-1200-900/wolfe.jpg" border="0" alt="Derek Wolfe Denver Broncos Breakout 2013" /><p class="source">Justin Edmonds/Getty Images</p><p class="caption">BRONCOOOOOOOOS</p></div><p></p></div></div><strong>Denver is on the road against the Dallas Cowboys, who are getting 7.5 points. </strong></h2>
<p>This game opened with the Broncos as just 3.5 favorites! I hope you were lucky enough to grab it then. Because that's nuts. The Broncos are a juggernaut and this line should be double digits. I suppose even juggernauts have off weeks, and it's possible the Cowboys lose by less than 7, but I wouldn't feel comfortable with that wager.</p>
<p><strong>The T. Boone Pickens: Broncos, -7.5</strong></p>
<p><strong><strong>(For non-gamblers like my boss Henry Blodget, this means I think the Broncos win by 7.5 or more.)</strong></strong></p>
<h2><strong>Detroit is on the road against the Green Bay Packers, who are 7 point favorites.</strong></h2>
<p>A 7-point spread in a division game? I'm not a big believer in the Lions, but they clearly have some juice with Reggie Bush in the lineup. The defense is serviceable, and it's possible the Packers aren't good this year. The Packers are coming off a bye week, so they should be primed to get after Detroit and win this one. But, I just see those seven points and have to do it. Maybe it's a sucker's bet, but I like the Lions here. </p>
<p><strong>The stone cold lock pick: Lions +7</strong></p>
<p><strong>(For non-gamblers like my boss Henry Blodget, this means I think the Lions win or lose by 7 or less.)</strong></p>
<h2><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/524ae400ecad04552b40fda2-1200-900/andrew-luck-indianapolis-colts-1.jpg" border="0" alt="andrew luck indianapolis colts" /><p class="source">Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images</p></div><p></p></div></div><strong>Seattle is on the road against the <keyword id="205793" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Indianapolis-Colts">Indianapolis Colts</keyword>, who are getting 3 points. </strong></h2>
<p>How good are the Seahawks? We'll find out this weekend. They're clearly awesome at home, but on the road they're a little shaky, with a near loss at Houston and a close game in Carolina. The Colts are pretty good, and QB Andrew Luck might be enough to get a win here. So... why not, one of the unbeaten teams has to lose eventually. </p>
<p><strong>The Loch Ness Monster pick of the week: Colts +3</strong></p>
<p><strong>(For non-gamblers like my boss Henry Blodget, this means I think the Colts win or lose by 3.)</strong></p>

NFL WEEK 5: Here Are Our Official Predictions For Who Wins This Weekend

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table full"><div><div class="image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/53f4cceeecad04a562f7d185-1200-813/johnny-manziel-browns-5.jpg" border="0" alt="johnny manziel browns"><p class="source"><span><a href="http://www.apimages.com/Search?query=johnny+manziel&amp;ss=10&amp;st=es&amp;entitysearch=P%7CJohnny+Manziel%7CCB7C15957A834F20AD1CE5C01E06C19A&amp;toItem=15&amp;orderBy=Oldest">AP</a></span></p></img></div><p></p></div></div>Johnny Manziel is great.</p>
<p>Sports is entertainment, and Manziel is an entertainer in a league that has a frustrating aversion to outgoing personalities. <span style="line-height: 1.5em;">We'd love nothing more than to see him ripping up NFL defenses every week.</span></p>
<p>But Manziel <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/johnny-manziel-benched-2014-8">losing the Cleveland Browns quarterback competition to Brian Hoyer</a> is not a good thing. The numbers suggests that rookies who win the starting job in Week 1 turn out to be better players than their peers. In addition, the recent track record of 1st-round picks who fail to start in Week 1 is worrisome.</p>
<p>In the last seven years the conventional wisdom about how rookie quarterbacks should be integrated into the NFL has changed.</p>
<p>NFL teams used to treat rookie quarterbacks as apprentices, sitting them on the bench for months until they were completely ready to play. The theory used to be that throwing rookies into the fire would hinder their development. Was this true?</p>
<p>We looked at the performance of 1st-round quarterbacks from 1999 to 2009. Using <a href="http://www.footballperspective.com/draft-value-chart/">Chase Stuart's expected draft value data</a> (which assigns a value to every draft position) and ProFootballReference's <a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&amp;match=combined&amp;year_min=1999&amp;year_max=2014&amp;season_start=1&amp;season_end=5&amp;age_min=0&amp;age_max=99&amp;league_id=&amp;team_id=&amp;is_active=&amp;is_hof=&amp;pos_is_qb=Y&amp;c1stat=av&amp;c1comp=gt&amp;c1val=0&amp;c2stat=&amp;c2comp=gt&amp;c2val=&amp;c3stat=&amp;c3comp=gt&amp;c3val=&amp;c4stat=&amp;c4comp=gt&amp;c4val=&amp;order_by=av&amp;draft=0&amp;draft_year_min=1936&amp;draft_year_max=2014&amp;type=&amp;draft_round_min=0&amp;draft_round_max=99&amp;draft_slot_min=1&amp;draft_slot_max=500&amp;draft_pick_in_round=0&amp;draft_league_id=&amp;draft_team_id=&amp;college_id=all&amp;conference=any&amp;draft_pos_is_qb=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_rb=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_wr=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_te=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_rec=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_t=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_g=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_c=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_ol=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_dt=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_de=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_dl=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_ilb=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_olb=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_lb=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_cb=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_s=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_db=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_k=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_p=Y">"approximate value" stat</a> (an advanced metric that quantifies a player's total value), we looked at how all these QBs performed relative to expectations. </p>
<p>It turned out that the seven rookies who started in Week 1 from 1999 to 2009 were worth 78% more than their expected value based on draft position. The rookies who sat in Week 1 were worth 46% more than their expected value.</p>
<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image"><a title_source="Tony Manfred/Business Insider" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/53f4c327eab8ea9a2ff7d189-960/screen shot 2014-08-20 at 11.17.51 am.png"><span class="sprites click-to-enlarge-icon" title="Click to enlarge"></span><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/53f4c327eab8ea9a2ff7d189-1200-480/screen shot 2014-08-20 at 11.17.51 am.png" border="0" alt="nfl quarterback value" /></a><p class="source"><span>Tony Manfred/Business Insider</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p>
<p>The guys who convinced their teams that they were good enough to start in Week 1 generally turned out to be slightly better players than those who didn't.</p>
<p>There are a bunch of complicating factors here.</p>
<p>Stuart only uses the first five years of a player's career in his draft data (<a href="http://www.footballperspective.com/creating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii/">check out the whole methodology here</a>), so we only used the each quarterback's total approximate value over the first five years of his career. As a result, late-bloomers like Aaron Rodgers (who didn't start as a rookie) get penalized.</p>
<p>The sample size is small, so massive busts like JaMarcus Russell (82% worse than expected) and massive hits like Joe Flacco (370% better than expected) had a disproportionate impact on the numbers.<span style="line-height: 1.5em;"> That being said, the NFL's most notorious busts (Russell, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, Brady Quinn) all failed to start in Week 1.</span></p>
<p>You also have to understand that this was a different era.</p>
<p>Between 1999 and 2009, only seven of the 31 quarterbacks taken in the first round of the draft started in Week 1. Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jay Cutler all sat in Week 1.</p>
<p>In general, the guys who started in Week 1 were better during this period. But plenty of players sat in Week 1 and went on to be stars.</p>
<p>Today, rookie quarterbacks who are picked in the first round are expected to start.</p>
<p>Between 2010 and 2013, seven of the 11 QBs taken in the first round started in Week 1. Here's the breakdown of 1st-round rookie quarterbacks:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Started Week 1 (7 players):</strong> Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, E.J. Manuel</li>
<li><strong>Sat Week 1 (4 players):</strong> Tim Tebow, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder</li>
</ul>
<p>The guys is the first group are generally better than those in the second. Tebow and Gabbert are busts, and the jury is still out Locker and Ponder.</p>
<p>We're in an era when it's unusual for 1st-round rookies to sit on the bench. And the guys who have sat on the bench during this period haven't faired well when they've eventually played.</p>
<p>Again, the sample size is small. There's also a possibility that Manziel is being benched for reasons that have little to do with football. But at the end of the day, history tells us that failing to win the starting job is a bad sign.</p>

Not Starting In Week 1 Is An Ominous Sign For Johnny Manziel

<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/55cf45672acae72d5f8bfebb-1200-864/teddy bridgewater.jpg" alt="teddy bridgewater" data-mce-source="Jim Mone/AP" /><p class="source"><span>Jim Mone/AP</span></p></div><p></p></div></div><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/nfl-week-3-picks-against-the-spread-2015-9">Last week</a> I wrote about how addictive the NFL sometimes feels - about how even when none of the games are the least bit exciting, and your fantasy team is a hodgepodge of no-name third-stringers conspiring to lose you money, and every big hit calls to mind the latest CTE study, somehow we still find ourselves glued to the couch and to our phones every Sunday. </span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And then I went 13-3 with my picks against the spread, and now I take back everything I said. Football is the best!</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">That's right, ladies and gentlemen. 13-3! NFL teams get first-round byes with that sort of record. Do you think it's a coincidence that Bill Simmons came back on the air today? I certainly don't. Now, I'm still waiting for the call to become ESPN's new gambling expert, and neither DraftKings nor FanDuel has reached out to me yet about any sort of sponsorship, but I am riding high on a personal level and that's what's important. Plus, everyone at Business Insider this week has been noticeably more excited than usual - the place is just buzzing - and let me just say it's nice to work at a website where my occasional successes don't go unnoticed. </span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">So expect me to go 0-15 this week. </span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But before we get to the picks, let's talk very briefly about baseball. The playoffs are around the corner, and this feels like the most exciting post-season in a while. The usually-terrible Jays, Cubs, Mets are all in, the Yankees are slightly more likeable than usual, the Cardinals are just as hateable, and we're in for some great series (Dodgers vs. Mets, especially). I can't wait. Plus, it'll only take a few innings until someone starts complaining about the game being played the wrong way, which is always fun!</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Anyway, here are my Week 4 picks:</span></p><h3>Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers</h3><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/52a4f37669bedd2f528631a0-1200-791/antonio-brown-td-dance.jpg" alt="antonio brown td dance" data-mce-source="Justin K Aller/Getty Images" /><p class="source"><span>Justin K Aller/Getty Images</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Vick is going to look like the game-manager of all game-managers tonight. All he has to do is hand the ball of to Le'Veon Bell and throws screen passes to Antonio Brown and let them take care of it.</p><p><strong>The pick: Steelers +3</strong></p><p> </p><h3>New York Jets (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins (in London)</h3><p>Both these teams are coming off ugly losses in Week 3, but I think the Dolphins will come out looking a little more desperate. Or they've already quit on Joe Philbin. We'll find out! (P.S. I feel bad for NFL fans in London who just get the <em>worst</em> NFL games every single year.)</p><p><strong>The pick: Dolphins +1.5</strong></p><p> </p><h3>Jacksonville Jaguars (+9) at Indianapolis Colts</h3><p>I'm making this pick under the assumption that Luck plays on Sunday. The Jags are awful and completely depleted on defense. Colts get back to .500 this week. </p><p><strong>The pick: Colts -9</strong></p><p> </p><h3>Houston Texans (+6.5) at Atlanta Falcons</h3><p>This is a pretty big line, and there are a lot of these this week. But one thing I know for certain is that you don't put your money on Ryan Mallett and/or Brian Hoyer on the road.  </p><p><strong>The pick: Falcons -6.5</strong></p><p> </p><h3>Carolina Panthers (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers</h3><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/560078849dd7cc17008bbfc6-4650-3138/gettyimages-489355380.jpg" alt="Cam Newton" data-mce-source="Streeter Lecka/Getty" /><p class="source"><span>Streeter Lecka/Getty</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>This line feels way too low considering how bad the Bucs are. What am I missing here?</p><p><strong>The pick: Panthers -3</strong></p><p> </p><h3>New York Giants (+5.5) at Buffalo Bills</h3><p>This is the most exciting game of the weekend, which is absolutely the first time in my life I've ever said that about a Giants vs. Bills match-up. I like the Bills to win this, but I'm taking the homer pick for the G-Men to keep it close. </p><p><strong>The pick: Giants +5.5</strong></p><p> </p><h3>Oakland Raiders (-3) at Chicago Bears</h3><p>The Raiders are fun! Khalil Mack, Amari Cooper, and Derek Carr are all pretty exciting young players. The Bears are ... neither fun nor exciting.</p><p><strong>The pick: Raiders -3</strong></p><p> </p><h3>Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Washington Redskins</h3><p>Let's figure out a way to blame Hurricane Joaquin on RGIII!</p><p><strong>The pick: Eagles -3</strong></p><p> </p><h3>Kansas City Chiefs (+4) at Cincinnati Bengals</h3><p>Expect Andy Reid to just horribly mismanage his timeouts in this one.</p><p><strong>The pick: Bengals -4</strong></p><p> </p><h3>Cleveland Browns (+7.5) at San Diego Chargers</h3><p>This is another semi-scary line. Neither of these teams are particularly good, but again, I just don't think you can trust bad quarterbacks on the road. Free Johnny Football!</p><p><strong>The pick: Chargers -7.5</strong></p><p> </p><h3>Green Bay Packers (-8.5) at San Francisco 49ers</h3><p>Not much to say here!</p><p><strong>The pick: Packers -8.5</strong></p><p> </p><h3>Minnesota Vikings (+6.5) at Denver Broncos</h3><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/560d7cbabd86ef21008be79b-3852-2780/gettyimages-490320796.jpg" alt="Teddy Bridgewater Adrian Peterson" data-mce-source="Hannah Foslien/Getty" /><p class="source"><span>Hannah Foslien/Getty</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Two of the league's best defenses face off here, which should be fun. I think the Vikings win outright.</p><p><strong>The pick: Vikings +6.5</strong></p><p> </p><h3>St. Louis Rams (+7) at Arizona Cardinals</h3><p>Is Carson Palmer a lock for Comeback Player of the Year? Did I just jinx him?</p><p><strong>The pick: Cardinals -7</strong></p><p> </p><h3>Dallas Cowboys (+4) at New Orleans Saints</h3><p>Do I have to make a pick here? Either I roll with Brandon Weeden on the road, or pick a hobbled Drew Brees and the 0-3 Saints? I guess I'll take the Cowboys, even after their Giants-esque collapse last weekend.</p><p><strong>The pick: Cowboys +4</strong></p><p> </p><h3>Detroit (+10) at Seattle Seahawks </h3><p>Another line that's just a little to big for comfort. But Seattle did cover a bigger spread last week (against an admittedly awful Bears team), so I think they can do it again.</p><p><strong>The pick: Seahawks -10</strong></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/real-nfl-agents-review-hbos-ballers-esquire-2015-8">Here's what real NFL agents think about HBO's 'Ballers'</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="xtOGl5djpncv_J89_mLv8YIYOa5FSqyF" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', 'xtOGl5djpncv_J89_mLv8YIYOa5FSqyF',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div>

NFL Week 4: Here's who wins this weekend

<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5604294ebd86ef12008bcc92-3000-2055/gettyimages-489352812.jpg" alt="Antonio Brown" data-mce-source="Jared Wickerham/Getty"><p class="source"><span>Jared Wickerham/Getty</span></p></img></div><p></p></div></div>I always find the second week of the </span><span style="font-weight: 400;">NFL to be a little forgettable. Week 1 is mania, sheer blue-blooded, hoppy American bliss. Nobody really knows anything about the vast majority of the teams - except for probably the Browns and Patriots - which of course means that both the games themselves and the subsequent storylines that dominate (Jameis Winston is a bust!!!) are about as entertaining and outrageous as anything anywhere else in sports.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And then Week 2&#xa0;is pretty underwhelming. You start to get a better sense of your favorite team and you come to terms with the fact that this team will soon make you suffer, if it hasn't already. Your fantasy team becomes a lost cause because your quarterback breaks his clavicle and your running back pulls his groin and your friend claims the only good player available player on the waiver wire before you think to do the same. You accept that you will almost certainly not win one million dollars playing DraftKings.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">By the end of Week 2, the newness of football in your life is a little less new, and the NFL - as much as this is possible - settles back into the realm of just being another sport.&#xa0;Which is fine, because you continue to watch, and you will continue to watch every single week. </span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Last Friday, <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/sports/concussion-watch/new-87-deceased-nfl-players-test-positive-for-brain-disease/">PBS published a study from Boston University </a>that found 87 of 91 deceased former NFL players tested positive for chronic traumatic encephalopathy - the brain disease caused by repeated head trauma. </span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;"></span><span style="font-weight: 400;">This story made its rounds, as stories regarding the NFL and head injuries and player safety do. It scared and angered me, as stories about the NFL and head injuries and player safety do. And then on Sunday I watched the NFL all day. Just as I will watch it all day during this Sunday, as I convince myself that my team will win the Super Bowl, and that I will win a million dollars on DraftKings. </span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">This is the terrifying brilliance of the NFL: we know how bad football can be&#xa0;and yet we continue to watch anyway. We are all addicted to it.&#xa0;</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And soo, on that positive and upbeat note, here are my picks for Week 3!</span></p><h3><br><span style="font-weight: 400;"></span>Washington Redskins (+3.5) at New York Giants</br></h3><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/545c39d569bedd5723f16fd2-3000-2000/456697884.jpg" alt="Eli Manning" data-mce-source="Getty Images"><p class="source"><span>Getty Images</span></p></img></div><p></p></div></div><p>You can't spell "elite" without Eli, and the Giants can't possibly blow three consecutive 4th quarter leads in the first three weeks of the season, right? ... Right?</p><p><strong>The pick: Giants -3.5</strong></p><p>&#xa0;</p><h3>Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) at St. Louis Rams&#xa0;</h3><p>Le'Veon Bell&#xa0;is back! I love that the Steelers are going to keep going for two. More teams should do this, if only because it's so much more fun to watch than the PAT.&#xa0;</p><p><strong>The pick: Steelers -1.5</strong></p><p>&#xa0;</p><h3>San Diego Chargers (+2.5) at Minnesota Vikings</h3><p>Shout out to Norv Turner, who remembered last week that he has Adrian Peterson on his team!&#xa0;</p><p><strong>The pick: Vikings -2.5</strong></p><p>&#xa0;</p><h3>Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5) at Houston Texans</h3><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/554d9a395afbd396328b4567-800-542/quarterback-winston-files-counterclaim-against-rape-accuser.jpg" alt="May 1, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) is introduced at a press conference at One Buc Place the day after being selected as the number one overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports " data-mce-source="Thomson Reuters" data-mce-caption="NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Press Conference"><p class="source"><span>Thomson Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Press Conference</p></img></div><p></p></div></div><p>Jameis Winston looked better in Week 2 and the Texans continue to look atrociously bad.&#xa0;I won't&#xa0;be surprised if the Texans win, but 6.5 points is a lot. I like the Bucs to cover the spread.</p><p><strong>The pick: Buccaneers +6.5</strong></p><p>&#xa0;</p><h3>Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) at New York Jets</h3><p>The Eagles are currently the most dysfunctional team in the NFC East, and that's no easy feat! They can't run the ball, and the (2-0!) Jets have a stymieing run defense. This of course probably&#xa0;means that the&#xa0;Eagles will come out and win by 20 and everyone will go back to calling Chip Kelly a genius.</p><p>On the other hand:</p><p><div><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Eagles?src=hash">#Eagles</a> CB Byron Maxwell (6-yr, $64m contract offseason) has been thrown at 19x, allowed 15 comp, 240 yds, 2 TD, 158.3 (perfect) QB rating</p>- Connor Hughes  (@Connor_J_Hughes) <a href="https://twitter.com/mims/statuses/645943169511768064">September 21, 2015</a></blockquote><script async="" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div></p><p><strong>The pick: Jets -2.5</strong></p><p>&#xa0;</p><h3>New Orleans Saints (+3) at Carolina Panthers</h3><p>Even if Drew Brees plays, I still think the Panthers are better.</p><p><strong>The pick: Panthers -3</strong></p><p>&#xa0;</p><h3>Jacksonville Jaguars (+13.5) at New England Patriots</h3><p>This is a huge spread, especially considering the Jaguars are coming off a nice win over the Dolphins and the Patriots - as dominant as they have been - have been giving up a ton of points. But I'm not going to over-think it, especially since the Patriots are untouchable at home.</p><p><strong>The pick: Patriots -13.5</strong></p><p>&#xa0;</p><h3>Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) at Baltimore Ravens</h3><p>By far the best game of the weekend, and thus the hardest to pick. The Ravens just don't seem to have enough good skill-position players, and on defense they're&#xa0;really missing Terrelle Suggs.</p><p><strong>The pick: Bengals +2.5</strong></p><p>&#xa0;</p><h3>Oakland Raiders (+3.5) at Cleveland Browns</h3><p>If you wanna win, put Johnny Football (back) in!&#xa0;</p><p><strong>The pick: Raiders +3.5</strong></p><p>&#xa0;</p><h3>Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Tennessee Titans</h3><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/52bdba66eab8ea2743ce32e8-3342-2488/ap49909009647.jpg" alt="Andrew Luck" data-mce-source="AP"><p class="source"><span>AP</span></p></img></div><p></p></div></div><p>Andrew Luck and the Colts&#xa0;will definitely bounce back against the Titans. (I wrote this last week, too...)</p><p><strong>The pick: Colts -3</strong></p><p>&#xa0;</p><h3>Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys</h3><p>Try to read this with a straight face:</p><p><div><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Jerry Jones on <a href="https://twitter.com/1053thefan">@1053thefan</a>: Brandon Weeden is "a thing of beauty throwing the football. Frankly, you won't see a more gifted passer."</p>- Jon Machota  (@jonmachota) <a href="https://twitter.com/mims/statuses/646318075206176768">September 22, 2015</a></blockquote><script async="" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div></p><p><strong>The pick: Falcons -1.5</strong></p><p>&#xa0;</p><h3>San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) at Arizona Cardinals</h3><p>The Cardinals are quietly really, really good. Can Carson Palmer stay healthy all season long?</p><p><strong>The Pick: Cardinals -6.5</strong></p><p>&#xa0;</p><h3>Chicago Bears (+14.5) at Seattle Seahawks</h3><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/55d750c4bd86ef11008b4fb0-5760-3840/gettyimages-461308908.jpg" alt="Kam Chancellor" data-mce-source="Otto Greule Jr./Getty"><p class="source"><span>Otto Greule Jr./Getty</span></p></img></div><p></p></div></div><p>Poor Jimmy Clausen. It's bad enough that you have to make your first start of the season&#xa0;against Seattle in Seattle's home opener. And then news breaks that Kam Chancellor is coming back.&#xa0;</p><p>The Pick:&#xa0;Seahawks -14.5</p><p>&#xa0;</p><h3>Buffalo Bills (+3) at Miami Dolphins</h3><p>This will be a fun one. The Bills will cover, even in a loss.&#xa0;</p><p><strong>The pick: Bills +3</strong></p><p>&#xa0;</p><h3>Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Detroit Lions</h3><p>The Broncos probably didn't deserve to win last week, and Peyton's arm is definitely deteriorating, but the Broncos defense will be enough.&#xa0;</p><p><strong>The pick:&#xa0;Broncos -2.5</strong></p><p>&#xa0;</p><h3>Kansas City (+6.5) at Green Bay Packers</h3><p>Rodgers was great against the Seahawks and won't look any different against the Chiefs.</p><p><strong>The pick: Packers -6.5</strong></p><p>&#xa0;</p><p><strong>[<em>Last week's record: 8-8</em>]</strong></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/most-extravagant-vacations-in-world-2015-9">The most expensive and extravagant vacations in the world</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="tvMzRndzpNrgBqxHb0FavvEnwVT1v50q" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', 'tvMzRndzpNrgBqxHb0FavvEnwVT1v50q',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div>

You Searched For "Brandon Weeden" and got 7 results

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