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<ul class="summary-list"><li>US bank stocks surged following Donald Trump's presidential election victory.</li><li>Markets see looser regulations and changes in oversight spurring more profits for banks. </li></ul>US bank stocks rallied on Wednesday after Donald Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">cruised to victory</a> in the presidential election, with markets eyeing a better environment for dealmaking and lending to drive stronger profits. Shares of the largest US banks soared ahead of the opening bell. JPMorgan and Bank of America both rose 6%, Citi rose 8%, and Wells Fargo jumped 10%. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley climbed 6% and 8%, respectively. The SPDR S&amp;P Bank exchange-traded fund climbed 8%. Investors flocked to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">financial stocks</a> as a popular "Trump trade" in the weeks leading up to the election, with allies of the president-elect stating that Trump planned to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/if-trump-wins-he-plans-free-wall-street-burdensome-regulations-2024-04-12/">unravel many of the regulations</a> imposed on the banking sector after the 2008 financial crisis.According to Gerard Cassidy, a large-cap bank analyst from RBC Capital Markets, Trump's victory is likely to see some top regulators ousted, including the heads of agencies like the Consumer Protection Bureau and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.More banks could also consolidate in the coming years, assuming Trump's cabinet and advisors adopt a "pro-business" stance, Cassidy speculated. Commercial lending could also pick up, potentially causing bank revenue to beat expectations next year, he added."We've been very optimistic and bullish about the bank stocks all year, and last night's win by Trump continues that bullishness," Cassidy said in an interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/11/06/outlook-for-banks-from-a-regulatory-standpoint-is-quite-positive-says-rbcs-gerard-cassidy.html">CNBC</a> Wednesday morning. "We're going to see a real change in anti-trust, and we're going to see a change in banking regulation as well, and that's going to be positive for the banks."Leading up to the election, analysts also said they saw a fresh wave of dealmaking under Trump amid a potentially looser anti-trust stance from his administration. That could result in increased advisory revenue for big banks and help drive up profits.

Bank stocks soar after Donald Trump's election victory

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US economy is on solid footing with cooling inflation and continued growth.</li><li>Yet, the outlook for the stock market is less clear, with analysts divided over how long the bull rally can run. </li></ul>Things are looking great for the US economy.Inflation is falling, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/employee-productivity-booming-workers-jobs-ai-stock-market-gdp-2024-3">productivity is rising,</a> and the Federal Reserve is easing monetary policy, which should act as a tailwind for economic growth.Economists have shifted from arguing about a potential recession to forecasting whether a "soft landing" or "no landing" is more likely. It seems the debate is simply <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/america-new-economic-supercycle-growth-inflation-stock-market-global-chaos-2024-10">about how fast the economy can grow from here.</a>But the outlook for the stock market is less clear, with major Wall Street banks still divided on whether stock prices have further room to run.Stocks are trading near record highs, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> on track to deliver back-to-back annual gains of more than 20%.Among the top analysts at Wall Street banks, there's some disagreement about whether all of the good news is priced in already or if the market can continue to rise beyond already lofty valuations. On the one hand, most see the gains set to continue, pushing past election uncertainty and continuing to lift stocks into 2025. However, beyond that timeline, uncertainty builds and outlooks get murky. Here's what Wall Street is saying about the prospects for the stock market heading into 2025 and beyond.<h2 id="62a39dfb-29e2-437a-b286-98b65dca264e">The Bulls</h2>A slew of Wall Street banks are chasing the record rally in the stock market this year, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-targets-bull-market-goldman-ubs-bmo-2024-10">boosting their S&amp;P 500 year-end price targets</a> to play catch-up.Strategists at UBS <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-prediction-us-economy-no-landing-ubs-2024-10">increased their S&amp;P 500 price targets</a> in a note last week, expecting the S&amp;P 500 to hit 6,300 by June 2025 and 6,600 at the end of next year.That represents potential upside of 8% and 13%, respectively.UBS CIO head of US equities David Lefkowitz said "healthy" earnings growth will pave the way for further stock gains."Third-quarter earnings season has started on a positive note with bank management teams highlighting that consumer spending remains healthy and consistent with normal economic growth," Lefkowitz said.The bank said improving inflation, more Fed rate cuts, and accelerating investment in artificial intelligence should all help support the stock market next year.Strength begets more strength, and that's a big part of BMO strategist Brian Belski's bullish outlook for stocks into 2025.Belski <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bmo-raises-year-end-sp500-price-target-2024-9">increased his year-end S&amp;P 500 price target to 6,100</a> from 5,600 last month, making him one of the most bullish strategists on Wall Street."We continue to be surprised by the strength of market gains and decided yet again that something more than an incremental adjustment was warranted," Belski said in the note.He's also encouraged by the broadening out of the stock market rally, as it's no longer concentrated in a handful of tech giants. That's healthy behavior for sustainable stock market gains, according to the note."This is a trend we expect to continue and should help to support future market gains even if the price and fundamental performance of Mag-X stocks continues to decelerate in the months ahead," Belski said.<h2 id="fc7c3d7b-c8d5-4665-bd3c-1c08a92b6ce4">The Bears</h2>The bearish strategists on Wall Street are sticking to their views even after being wrong all year. Their top worry is the potential for fewer interest rate cuts than expected and growing hype in AI that might fail to deliver.JPMorgan strategists have held firm to their bearish S&amp;P 500 year-end price target of 4,200, which represents potential downside of 28% from current levels.In a note earlier this month, JPMorgan strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas admitted that a recession appears off the table but said that AI investments are unlikely to pay off with lingering questions around monetization issues.Additionally, investor expectations of a Federal Reserve that is about to embark on a string of interest rate cuts could be disappointed if the economy continues to stay resilient, as it would limit the Fed's ability to cut rates, likely putting downward pressure on stock prices.Finally, JPMorgan warned in a note on Monday that third-quarter earnings have seen a flurry of estimate downgrades as sell-side analysts lower their expectations."Earnings downgrades have been significant," JPMorgan said, adding that they "appear to be worsening."Stifel strategist Barry Bannister has warned investors about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-sp500-prediction-bubble-overvalued-stifel-outlook-2024-10">a potential plunge in the stock market in 2025.</a>Elevated valuations, unfounded expectations for more Fed rate cuts, and hype for AI that ultimately falls short of expectations could create a perfect storm for lower stock prices next year."We took a clean sheet look at the equity market and came away with the same smh (shaking my head) emoji reaction. Despite all the soft-landing and Fed rate cut optimism, the S&amp;P 500 up almost 40% y/y has simply over-shot," Bannister said.While the strategist admitted that a "mania" could take hold in the market and push stock prices even higher from here, it will ultimately end with a crescendo and then a fresh swing to the downside."Sure, we can cherry-pick with the best of them and apply the most over-valued cyclically adjusted valuation level of the past 35 years to show about 10% further upside, but that same analysis of a century of manias also returns the S&amp;P 500 in 2025 to where 2024 began (down 26% from that prospective peak)," Bannister said.<h2 id="1f44d16a-28c8-40a7-bee1-9a426c3bf02e">Somewhere in between</h2>Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin is bullish, at least in the short term.The bank's chief stock strategist recently increased his year-end S&amp;P 500 price target to 6,000 on the prospect of further growth in corporate earnings. "The primary driver of the upward revision to our 2025 EPS estimate is greater margin expansion," Kostin said. "The macro backdrop remains conducive to modest margin expansion, with prices charged outpacing input cost growth."And yet, Kostin also argues that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-future-returns-decade-forecast-goldman-sachs-2024-10">a golden era of stock market returns is probably over</a>. In a note over the weekend, Kostin issued his 10-year forecast for the stock market. He said that a combination of extreme market concentration and high valuations suggests the S&amp;P 500 will deliver annualized returns of just 3% over the next 10 years. That's compared to the S&amp;P 500's annualized return of about 13% over the past 10 years."Investors should be prepared for equity returns during the next decade that are towards the lower end of their typical performance distribution relative to bonds and inflation," Kostin said.Goldman also sees stocks struggling relative to other assets over the next decade. The bank says the S&amp;P 500 has about a 72% chance of trailing bond-market returns and a 33% probability of lagging inflation through 2034.His long-term view aligns with other bears who fret that the coming decade will look much worse than the last. Stifel's Bannister has also argued for a "lost decade" for the stock market.

Wall Street is divided on the future of stocks. Here are bull and bear cases from the biggest banks.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The biggest money managers on Wall Street are shedding billions in stocks for this one tax strategy.</li><li>Tax-loss harvesting allows investors to offset capital gains taxes by selling securities at a loss.</li></ul>It's officially stock-selling season, according to Bank of America.Institutional investors usually increase their selling activity towards the end of the year, and this year was no exception. Bank of America's clients alone sold $1.3 billion in US equities last week. The bank reported that institutional selling activity was 80% higher this October than the historical average.What's the reason behind these elevated levels of security selling? The answer is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-savings-strategy-offset-gains-income-loss-harvesting-morgan-stanley-2024-10">tax-loss harvesting</a>.Tax-loss harvesting has long been a strategy of Wall Street and the wealthy to reduce their tax bills. They do this by selling underperforming investments for a loss to offset capital gains taxes on other investments sold at a profit. As a result, taxes are only paid on the net profit.You can replicate this strategy in your own portfolio, too. Below are some tips and tricks on how to use it to reduce your taxes, according to Jere Doyle, estate planning strategist at BNY Wealth.<h2 id="68a94438-775f-431a-954e-0e5b2d8dcb75">How tax-loss harvesting works</h2>Investors might look to rebalance some portfolio positions as the end of the year approaches. For example, after this year's incredible runup in tech stocks, some investors might be looking to sell their positions to realize their gains and diversify their holdings.That's where tax-loss harvesting comes in. If you're selling Nvidia stock with a $10,000 gain, you can pair that with a sale of another asset with a $10,000 loss to avoid paying capital gains taxes.You can also front-load your losses, according to Doyle. If you sell one asset at a $10,000 gain and another at a $15,000 loss, you can use up to $3,000 of the loss to offset other ordinary income — and carry forward the remaining $2,000 to subsequent years.Tax-loss harvesting can be especially advantageous in today's environment, according to Doyle.The market has been experiencing heightened volatility from factors such as mega-cap earnings and the election.This environment creates big winners and losers, giving investors plenty of opportunity to recognize losses. Investors shouldn't be scared of pullbacks in a volatile market. Instead, take advantage of price dips in the market to sell losing securities and lower your tax bill.<h2 id="c83964ce-4da2-4126-a044-a3769347944b">Tax-loss harvesting tips and tricks</h2>There are a few things to consider before using a tax-loss harvesting strategy.First, investors should be aware of the wash-sale rule. The wash-sale rule states that if you sell a security at a loss and buy the same or "substantially identical" security in a 30-day timeframe before or after the sale, you cannot use the loss for income tax purposes.Sometimes, people forget about this rule. "They made the mistake of repurchasing those same assets within that 61-day period, and they lose the deductibility of loss," Doyle said.If you want to sell a security at a loss but still want exposure to a specific area of the market, you can use the proceeds of the sale to purchase a similar, but not substantially identical, asset. However, the IRS hasn't provided a clear definition of what constitutes a substantially identical asset, so investors should approach this with caution. Or, you could double down on the asset more than 30 days before selling at a loss.Another piece of advice Doyle: try to match your gains and losses.It might be tempting to record a larger loss than gain to carry it over in subsequent years, but it might not be worth taking the loss if you don't plan to use it for tax-harvesting purposes in the near future."Given the time value of money, those long-term capital gain losses lose their value over a period of time," Doyle said. A $2,000 loss today will be worth less carried over many years in the future — in that case, it would be more advantageous to just record the loss in the future. In other words, don't incur excessive losses today just to be able to use them in the future.Lastly, Doyle recommends thinking through this strategy carefully to make sure it's a good fit for your current portfolio."From an investment point of view, it may not make sense. Maybe the securities you have at a loss are going to bounce back later on. Maybe the securities you're selling at a gain have future appreciation left," Doyle said.Investors should keep in mind that tax-loss harvesting isn't a one-size-fits-all strategy — but if you do have gains and the losses to offset them, the end of the tax year might be a good time to think about implementing this plan.

Bank of America's clients are selling stocks 80% more than normal to use this strategy that allows you to avoid capital gains taxes on big returns

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stock index trades were mixed Tuesday morning.</li><li>Estimate-beating earnings from three banks set a positive tone on Tuesday.</li></ul>Stocks were mixed Tuesday morning as traders assessed the latest earnings, though several results before the bell helped strike a positive tone in early trading.A trio of Wall Street banks — Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America — all topped third-quarter estimates, potentially giving more firepower to this week's rally.Stocks notched a winning session on Monday that drove the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a> to record closing highs. Estimate-beating reports from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo last week are also helping drive bullish momentum, though gains were more muted as trade kicked off on Tuesday. International oil prices were down sharply, with Brent crude falling 4.27% to $74.15.Though Middle Eastern tensions sparked a rush in oil prices this month, the market's depreciation follows reports that Israel will limit its retaliation against an earlier Iranian missile strike.While earnings will be this week's focal point, investors will also watch for September's retail sales and initial jobless claims to release on Thursday. Among Fed commentary, governor Adriana Kugler and president Mary Daly will speak on Tuesday.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,864.41, up 0.08%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,791.76, down 0.63% (-273.46 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,534.01, up 0.14%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/financial-stocks-bank-cyclicals-investment-advise-jobs-data-morgan-stanley-2024-10?_gl=1*co3rbk*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODk5NDM3MS43MjkuMS4xNzI4OTk1OTI5LjYwLjAuMA..">Financial stocks are being woefully underappreciated by investors</a>, Morgan Stanley says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-crash-collapse-black-swan-nassim-taleb-bubble-2024-10?_gl=1*l21opq*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODk5NDM3MS43MjkuMS4xNzI4OTk2MDU3LjEwLjAuMA..">Risk of collapse looms as markets are the most fragile in 20 years</a>, says "Black Swan" author Nassim Taleb.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-recession-risk-soft-landing-labor-unemployment-rate-consumer-confidence-2024-10">The US risks being caught off-guard by a recession</a>, Paul Dietrich says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-waller-rate-cuts-easing-hot-economy-monetary-policy-2024-10">Fed Governor Waller wants "more caution" on Fed rate cuts as economic data stays hot.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-overvalued-sp500-bullish-earnings-momentum-rally-valuations-2024-10?_gl=1*1vwi8z1*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODk5NDM3MS43MjkuMS4xNzI4OTk2NTMxLjYwLjAuMA..">The stock market is overvalued by 8%, but Piper Sandler says that's no reason to sell</a>.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dropped 4.19% to $70.73 a barrel.<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets"> Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 3.92% to $74.41 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> was nearly flat at $2,666.4 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield slid two basis points to 4.049%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> was inched 0.07% lower to $65,918.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes trade mixed as investors sift through big bank earnings

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Bank of America says a jump in mentions of "bottom" in earnings calls is a positive sign.</li><li>Mentions of "weak demand" also fell to a two-year low. </li></ul>Executives have been dropping hints in third-quarter earnings calls that suggest corporate profits will surge in 2025, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/bac-stock">Bank of America.</a>Strategist Savita Subramanian highlighted in a Monday note that with more than one-third of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> companies having reported results, mentions of the word "bottom" on earnings calls have surged."Companies have been operating in a weak demand environment for almost two years now due to the weakness in goods/manufacturing. But we see signs that the worst may be behind us," Subramanian said. Bank of America scanned the transcripts of third-quarter earnings calls and observed a 56% year-over-year increase in the word "bottom" being mentioned.On top of that, mentions of "weak demand" have dropped to two-year lows, a good sign for cyclical companies in the manufacturing economy."Historically, a jump in 'bottom' mentions has often marked an inflection in EPS," Subramanian said.Notable surges in the word "bottom" being mentioned on earnings calls in 2009 and 2020 were soon after marked by a more than 75% year-over-year surge in S&amp;P 500 quarterly earnings per share, according to the note.<div type="image" title="chart of S&amp;P 500 earnings" height="537" width="1207" msid="114741554" hostid="261" sizebytes="53224"></div>These signals suggest to Subramanian that manufacturing activity will pick up in the first half of next year as the Fed is likely to continue lowering interest rates and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">uncertainty about the Presidential election passes.</a>Subramanian said that the word "election" being mentioned on earnings calls has soared 62% compared to the 2020 election cycle, suggesting "a potential 'wait-and-see' investment approach given the uncertainty.""Interestingly, history suggests that investment activity typically accelerates post-election. We believe the election could be a clearing event for companies to unleash capex, especially with lower rates," Subramanian said.

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Bank stocks soar after Donald Trump's election victory

Jennifer Sor

Wall Street is divided on the future of stocks. Here are bull and bear cases from the biggest banks.

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Bank of America's clients are selling stocks 80% more than normal to use this strategy that allows you to avoid capital gains taxes on big returns

Christine Ji

Stock market today: Indexes trade mixed as investors sift through big bank earnings

Filip De Mott

A hint in 3rd-quarter earnings calls suggests S&P 500 corporate profits are about to boom, Bank of America says

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