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<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="13357801" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="food-scarcity" source="Orion">Food scarcity</keyword> is likely to surge in countries throughout the world due to Russia's war with Ukraine. </li><li>In the past, that's led to <keyword id="13357802" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="riots" source="Orion">riots</keyword> — most recently the <keyword id="13357803" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="arab-spring" source="Orion">Arab Spring</keyword> and <keyword id="11894142" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="food" source="Orion">food</keyword> crises in 2007 and 2008. </li></ul><p>When Vladimir Putin invaded Europe's breadbasket, he may have set off shockwaves that could cause civil unrest worldwide.</p><p>Together, Ukraine and Russia <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-gold-platinum-russia-invades-ukraine-aluminum-nickel-wheat-2022-2">produce</a> nearly a third of the world's wheat, 19% of the world's corn, and 80% of its sunflower oil <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-europe-sunflower/eu-facing-shortfall-in-sunflower-oil-due-to-ukraine-war-producers-idUSKBN2L118T">supply</a>. The crisis in these countries means the world's food supply chain will take a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60653856">major hit</a>, putting more people at risk of starvation throughout the globe. </p><p>"I would almost say that no country is going to be immune from this kind of trifecta of political risk: pandemic hangover, rising prices, and pressure on living standards," Tina Fordham, a global political analyst, told Insider. </p><p>Soaring food prices, especially bread, have been a trigger for protests, civil unrest, and revolutions in France, Russia, and the Middle East in the past. With wheat prices up <a href="https://www.axios.com/wheat-prices-surge-russia-ukraine-middle-east-80b49d7d-9227-4786-946d-5012b8d8f373.html">70%</a> in the last month, experts worry that countries with an unstable food supply that rely on Ukraine and Russia are at particular risk. Egypt, Cameroon, Nigeria, and Yemen, in particular, get <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/03/06/1083769798/russias-war-on-ukraine-is-dire-for-world-hunger-but-there-are-solutions?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=newsletter_axiospm&amp;stream=top">more than half</a> of their imported calories from the region — they're looking at a possible surge of severe malnutrition and starvation. </p><h2>Hunger has driven rebellions in very recent history</h2><p>Two events in recent history renewed scholastic interest in the relationship between food prices and political instability, Slate's Joshua Keating <a href="https://slate.com/technology/2014/04/food-riots-and-revolution-grain-prices-predict-political-instability.html">wrote</a> in 2014. A food crisis in 2007 and 2008 due to <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/environment/integration/research/newsalert/pdf/225na1_en.pdf">weather shocks and trade restrictions</a> to the food market triggered riots in countries like Haiti, Bangladesh, and Mozambique.</p><p>Food scarcity also played a large role in the Arab Spring, a series of anti-government protests in the Middle East in the early 2010s after international food prices <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2011/jul/17/bread-food-arab-spring">shot up</a>, unemployment rose, and frustration with corrupt political systems peaked. </p><p>One of the driving forces behind the Arab Spring, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/world-july-dec11-food_09-07">experts say</a>, was the high cost of food. Shrinking farmlands, bad weather, and poor water distribution contributed to higher prices and, as a result, anti-government sentiment. </p><p>"I think that the prices of food mobilized people," Rami Zurayk, an agronomy professor at the American University of Beirut, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/world-july-dec11-food_09-07">told </a>PBS NewsHour about the Arab Spring. </p><p>In Syria, for instance, drought disrupted food production in the late 2000s. Poverty and food insecurity shot up in the country, and "the social unrest that had been simmering for a while in rural areas erupted into riots," Giulia Soffiantini, a researcher for the <em>Global Food Security Journal</em>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2211912420300547">wrote</a> in 2020. Soffiantini said that these riots largely involved many of those young people who had left their lands because of the drought. </p><p>"While the riots that swept through Syria in March 2011 are clearly a reaction to a brutal regime far from the needs of the people and a response to the wave of political change that began in Tunisia," she said, "the civil war and the rise of rebel groups exemplifies the potential effects of food insecurity on political instability as a catalyst for social unrest." </p><p>Civil unrest is one likely outcome of the impending food crisis, Fordham said, in addition to leaders becoming more unpopular, crime, increased health and malnutrition, especially for populations in countries that are at most risk. And she says that this is going to have a powerful impact on how people view their governments and leaders. </p><p>"This is a problem for every sitting incumbent leader: Boris Johnson, Jair Bolsonaro, Joe Biden, this is the worst combination of factors for elected officials," she said. "Countries having elections in the coming months are at special risk of tensions."  </p><h2>Surging food prices have caused people to revolt in centuries past too </h2><p>Bread shortages were flashpoints for unrest throughout history, including in the <keyword id="13357805" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="french-revolution" source="Orion">French Revolution</keyword> in the late 18th century.</p><p>Tensions began in the 1700s in France, when the crown deregulated the domestic grain trade — meaning sellers were free to increase prices as they wished. That deregulation, among other factors such as a huge rise in population, contributed to food shortages and high costs. In April and May of 1775, at least 300 riots and expeditions occurred in the span of three weeks, in what was coined the "Flour War." </p><p>The rioters set the prices of grain, flour, and bread back to lower levels, Cynthia A. Bouton, a women's and gender studies professor specializing in French history, writes in her book, <em>The Flour War. </em>Farmers and merchants had no choice but to accept them, given that the alternative was pillaging. </p><p>Bouton describes people with families and jobs as being driven to rioting. The "average" person involved was "a middle-aged, married, semi-skilled wage-earning male or female with young children" whose family's survival was threatened by the increasing price of grain. </p><p>"Food rioting flourished during the 18th century and the Revolutionary period, so much so that historians have often observed that food riots were the most classic form of popular protest during that period," Bouton says.</p>

Russia is disrupting food prices worldwide and it could cause civil unrest — it's happened before

<ul><li>India slipped two places to come in at the 53rd position on the Democracy Index 2020 as compared to last year.</li><li>The dip in its score has largely been attributed to mishandling of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA).</li><li>“The increasing influence of religion under the Modi premiership, whose policies have fomented anti-Muslim feeling and religious strife, has damaged the political fabric of the country,” said the report by The Economist Intelligence Unit.</li></ul>India is the world’s largest democracy but its 1.38 billion citizens do not seem to be enjoying many freedoms. According to the latest report by the Economist Intelligence Unit, the South Asian giant fell another two spots to 53rd position in the Democracy Index 2020.<br /><br />The primary reason for the massive fall was <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/nrc-npr-and-caa-are-not-the-same-know-the-differences/articleshow/72963691.cms">the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act </a>(CAA) that came into being in January 2020.<br /><br /><strong>India versus rest of South Asia<br /></strong>While being categorized as a ‘flawed democracy’, at first glance, India fares better than its neighboring countries. However, while India has been falling in the ranks, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Pakistan have improved marginally in 2020. Even those countries which saw a fall in scores, none were as massive as India’s drop.<br /><br /><table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; width: 468pt; table-layout: fixed;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Country<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Change in Democracy Index score from 2019 to 2020<br /><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">India<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">-0.29<br /><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Bhutan<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+0.41<br /><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Bangladesh<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+0.11<br /><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Pakistan<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+0.06<br /><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">China<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+0.01<br /><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Afghanistan<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">No change<br /><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Nepal<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">-0.06<br /><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Sri Lanka<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">-0.13<br /><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><strong>India’s ranking has been falling and it may get worse</strong>      <div type="image" title="India democracy ranking" msid="80671295" hostid="261"></div><br />The Economist Intelligence Unit calls it ‘democratic backsliding’ under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The instances of high handedness by the state have only increased. For instance, stand-up comedian Munawar Farooqui was <a href="https://www.news18.com/news/buzz/comedian-munawar-faruqui-in-jail-for-22-days-for-joke-on-hindu-gods-a-timeline-of-events-3320342.html">arrested</a> for a joke that he didn’t even crack. Not to mention the heavy language used by the judiciary while denying him bail. <br /><br />The judiciary’s sensitivity was seen yet again when lawyer and activist Prashant Bhushan was brought under the scanner for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/prashant-bhushan-files-fresh-plea-in-supreme-court-seeking-review-contempt-case-punishment/articleshow/78422984.cms">tweets criticizing the government. </a><br /><br />Access to the internet was <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/internet-access-in-jammu-and-kashmir-isnt-about-the-right-to-freedom-its-about-the-right-to-life-according-to-lawyers/articleshow/75708351.cms">blocked in Kashmir</a> for 213 days — two-thirds of a full year — after Article 370 of the Constitution was scrapped by the Modi government. Even today, internet shutdowns are being used to stifle the farmers' protest against India’s new farm laws along the borders of New Delhi.<br /><br />Creators of shows like <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/entertainment/news/tandav-controversy-fir-filed-against-the-shows-director-and-amazon-india-head-of-content-in-up/articleshow/80329036.cms">Tandav</a>, Sacred Games, and others have been dragged to court after being accused of hurting religious sentiments. <br /><br />Most recently, the Uttarakhand Director General of Police Ashok Kumar <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/uttarakhand-anti-national-posts-to-hit-passport-clearance-101612289325781.html">stated</a> that the state police will track people posting ‘anti-national’ and ‘anti-social’ posts on social media to be taken into consideration when verifying passport and arms.<br /><br /><table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; width: 468pt; table-layout: fixed;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Type of democracy<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Number of countries<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Percentage of countries<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Percentage of world population<br /><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Full democracies<br /><br />(E.g. Canada)<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">23<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">13.8%<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">8.4%<br /><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Flawed democracies<br /><br />(E.g. The US)<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">52<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">31.1%<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">41%<br /><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Hybrid regimes<br /><br />(E.g. Myanmar)<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">35<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">21%<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">15%<br /><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Authoritarian regimes<br /><br />(E.g. China)<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">57<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">34.1%<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">35.6%<br /><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><strong>The issue with the new citizenship law<br /></strong>The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) allows persecuted minorities who are, by religion, Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist, Jain, Parsi and Christian from ⁠— from neighbouring countries namely Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan — eligible for Indian citizenship. The fundamental argument against this bill is that religion was never a criteria and should never be.<br /><br />When critics questioned why persecuted Muslims were left out of the Act, the government said that in the three countries specified, Muslims are the majority and not persecuted. However, many debaters have pointed out that Muslims are a minority in Nepal and Sri Lanka, and the amendment excludes them.<br /><br />What’s worse, the government had planned to execute the National Registrar of Citizens, which would identify the undocumented and illegal migrants. However, if any non-Muslim gets caught without papers, he could be reinstated under the CAA. But a Muslim does not have the safety net that other communities have. <br /><br />The fear of many Muslims, who have been living in India for decades or generations, losing their state led to the widespread protests going into 2020. It took a riot in Delhi and the pandemic thereafter to bring the protests to an end. <br /><br /><strong>India scores well for its electoral process but takes a hit in political culture</strong><br /><table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; width: 468pt; table-layout: fixed;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Metric<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">India’s score<br /><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Electoral process and pluralism<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">8.67<br /><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Functioning of government<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.14<br /><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Political participation<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6.67<br /><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Political culture<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">5<br /><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Civil liberties<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">5.59<br /><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><strong>SEE ALSO:<br /><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/budget/news/no-covid-cess-but-agri-infra-cess-will-hike-prices-of-fuel-imported-alcohol/slidelist/80629471.cms">No COVID-cess but agri infra cess will hike prices of fuel, imported alcohol</a><br /><br /><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/budget/news/indias-health-budget-sees-a-137-jump-in-2021/slidelist/80626468.cms">India’s health budget sees a 137% jump in 2021</a><br /><br /></strong><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/budget/news/india-budget-2021-updates-and-highlights-from-nirmala-sitharaman-speech/articleshow/80624564.cms"><strong>Union Budget 2021 highlights: Pensioners over 75 years need not file IT returns, says FM</strong></a><br />

New citizenship law pulls India down in the democracy rankings — and 2021 is not looking better

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The war in <keyword id="11985141" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ukraine" source="Orion">Ukraine</keyword> has lifted <keyword id="13561385" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="fertilizer" source="Orion">fertilizer</keyword> prices, leading to concerns of a global food shortage.</li><li>Many low-income countries were struggling with hunger and pricey fertilizer before the invasion.</li></ul><p>In an era of abundant economic worries, the chaos in the world's fertilizer market is one of the most concerning.</p><p>The war in Ukraine has boosted already high fertilizer prices. Russia serves as the world's top fertilizer exporter, selling <a href="https://oec.world/en/profile/hs92/fertilizers#:~:text=In%202020%2C%20the%20top%20exporters,and%20France%20(%241.83B).">some $7.6 billion worth of fertilizer</a> in 2020, according to data from the French research organization CEPII. Russia's invasion of Ukraine slammed both countries' abilities to trade, and in early March the Russian government called on fertilizer producers <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/russia-calls-on-domestic-fertilizer-producers-to-halt-exports">to suspend exports entirely</a>.</p><p>The new supply pressures have lifted prices at a stunning clip. The <a href="https://fertilizerpricing.com/priceindex/">Green Markets North America fertilizer-price index</a> — which tracks the costs of urea, potash, and diammonium phosphate — has soared by 42% since the invasion began in late February.</p><p>Higher fertilizer prices may not seem worrisome for the average American — potash and urea don't show up on most people's grocery lists. But the prices of food staples like wheat are also soaring, risking hunger crises in low- and middle-income countries. Persistently higher fertilizer costs could turn food inflation into a lasting problem and plunge the world into a new kind of economic turmoil.</p><p>"I am deeply concerned that the violent conflict in Ukraine, already a catastrophe for those directly involved, will also be a tragedy for the world's poorest people living in rural areas who cannot absorb the price hikes of staple foods and <keyword id="11994879" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="farming" source="Orion">farming</keyword> inputs that will result from disruptions to global trade," said Gilbert Houngbo, the president of the UN's International Fund for Agricultural Development.</p><p>"We are already seeing price hikes, and this could cause an escalation of hunger and poverty with dire implications for global stability."</p><h2>Soaring fertilizer prices escalate food-shortage concerns</h2><p>The world was already short on food before Russia invaded Ukraine in late February. A <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb4474en/online/cb4474en.html#chapter-executive_summary">UN report on food security</a> estimated that between 720 million and 811 million people faced hunger in 2020 — an increase of as many as 161 million from 2019 — as the coronavirus crisis and economic recession hobbled poorer countries.</p><p>The Russia-Ukraine conflict has only worsened the problem. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/wheat-price">Wheat prices</a> have soared by 27% since the invasion began, with markets bracing for supply from both Russia and Ukraine to fade. While advanced economies can absorb higher costs and turn to alternatives, developing countries are stuck with few options aside from footing a larger bill.</p><p>Fertilizer prices are also up about 260% from prepandemic levels, having been dented by higher energy costs and new export-licensing mandates imposed by major exporters like Russia and China.</p><p>These higher costs are forcing farmers to scale back production or use less fertilizer and risk harvesting smaller yields. Some <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/manure-big-business-high-demand-russia-ukraine-war-fertilizer-prices-2022-4">are clamoring for animal manure</a> to replace commercial nutrients. Even if the Russian invasion were to end soon and food inflation cooled, soaring fertilizer costs would have a delayed effect on the market and leave supply strained well into the future.</p><p>Expensive crop nutrients hinder advanced economies' ability to fill the hole in the world's food supply. The US Department of <keyword id="11963490" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="agriculture" source="Orion">Agriculture</keyword> <a href="https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/2022/03-31-2022.php">said in late March</a> that it expected farmers in the US to plant less corn but a record amount of soybeans in 2022. Soybeans require less commercial fertilizer than corn, and a shift signals that farmers are gearing up for prolonged disruption in the fertilizer market.</p><p>The uptick in fertilizer prices could even spark civil unrest in countries with unstable food supplies. Food-price shocks triggered riots in Haiti, Bangladesh, and Mozambique in 2007 and 2008, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russia-bread-food-prices-civil-unrest-arab-spring-egypt-2022-3">Insider's Jason Lalljee reported in March</a>. Food scarcity also played a role in the Arab Spring protests of the early 2010s as people struggling with hunger and poverty mobilized against their governments.</p><p>Intense damage has already emerged in the world's most vulnerable countries. The UN's World Food Programme <a href="https://www.wfp.org/news/countdown-catastrophe-begins-yemen-funding-food-assistance-dwindles">said in late February</a> that it had been forced to halve food assistance for 8 million people facing hunger in Yemen. The program's executive director, David Beasley, said the combination of dwindling funds and soaring prices risked pushing millions of Yemenis into famine conditions.</p><p>"We have no choice but to take food from the hungry to feed the starving," Beasley said, adding, "This will be hell on earth."</p><h2><strong>Pricey fertilizer worsens the world's inflation problem</strong></h2><p>The fertilizer-price surge is also a major obstacle in the fight against inflation. Food prices are a major component of headline inflation measures; the category has a 14% weighting in the consumer price index, for example. If fertilizer prices don't fall back to earth, it could weigh on future crop yields and keep food supply well below US demand.</p><p>The price surge also strikes at a weakness in the Federal Reserve's plan to quell price growth. The central bank <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-hikes-interest-rates-inflation-higher-costs-loans-mortgages-2022-3">started raising interest rates in March</a> partly in an effort to ease inflation. Higher borrowing costs help rein in demand for a range of goods, but  people need to eat, and the Fed's plan to fight inflation can't do much to close the gap between food supply and demand.</p><p>Inflation in other pockets of the <keyword id="11893570" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="economy" source="Orion">economy</keyword> is worsening the fertilizer problem. Energy prices have soared more than any other major CPI category, leaping by nearly 26% over the past year. Natural gas is one of those surging energy commodities and a crucial component in the production of commercial fertilizers. Rising natural-gas prices have already forced European fertilizer factories <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/09/business/food-costs-fertilizer-yara/index.html">to scale back production</a>, threatening an even bigger nutrient shortage in the months ahead.</p><p>The world is adjusting somewhat to combat the new price pressures. The USDA announced in March that it would make $250 million available in the summer <a href="https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2022/03/11/usda-announces-plans-250-million-investment-support-innovative#:~:text=USDA%20will%20make%20available%20%24250,production%20to%20supply%20American%20farmers.">to boost domestic fertilizer production</a>.</p><p>But last-minute adjustments aren't likely to fully counter a fertilizer shortage. The world is already struggling to shoulder rising food costs, and there's little indication that the war in Ukraine will end soon. As farmers make do, elevated fertilizer prices loom over hungry countries and inflation-rattled economies.</p>

The war in Ukraine is sending fertilizer prices through the roof. That could spark food shortages in countries already struggling with widespread hunger.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A global food crisis is unfolding, spurred by the Ukraine invasion and climate events.</li><li>Food shortages have led to civil unrest in the past, with deadly consequences.</li><li>Experts warn that even if you are well-fed, rising food costs in the country will impact you.</li></ul><p>In India, the cost of lemons has skyrocketed. Jollof rice has become so expensive in Nigeria that people are skipping meals. In Mexico, avocado prices have jumped, making them a luxury few can afford. Orange groves in Florida are yielding the lowest amount of fruit in years. And in Japan, a shortage of salmon is hitting the sushi trade.</p><p>Zoom out and it's clear: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-food-crisis-unfolding-how-its-affecting-13-places-worldwide-2022-8">A food crisis is unfolding around the world</a>, with prices shooting up everywhere. And when that happens, everyone feels the pain. People can cut back on movies or even driving when the cost of tickets or gas surges, but everyone needs to eat.</p><p>The crisis — a long time in the making, but brought to a head by Russia's invasion of Ukraine — is already having profound effects. In Peru, protests against a jump in food and fuel costs turned deadly in April. Sri Lanka's government collapsed and its president was ousted in July, as people took to the streets to demonstrate against a scarcity of food, fuel, and medicine.</p><p>Unless urgent action is taken, experts warn that the crisis could have dire global consequences. In some countries, changes in the availability of food might alter age-old recipes and customs. Civil unrest could spread, fueling instability and even war in some of the world's poorest regions. A breakdown in food systems could drive huge waves of migration.</p><div type="image" title="A large crowd of protestors waving flags gather in front of the presidential building in Sri Lanka." height="3152" width="5184" msid="93281523" hostid="261"></div><h2><strong>'A food crisis is a price crisis'</strong></h2><p>Global food prices have surged following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February. In the US, prices jumped 10% year-over-year as of May, the biggest increase since 1981, and rose to a record 8.9% in the eurozone. Globally, things are even worse: The UN's world food price index shot up 23% year-over-year as of June. Simply put, more and more people are struggling to afford food. </p><p>"A food crisis is a price crisis," Chris Barrett, an economist and food-policy expert at Cornell University, told Insider. He said its implications are widespread and touch every person's life, even if they don't immediately realize it.</p><p>"If you worry about domestic politics, if you worry about environmental matters, if you worry about immigration matters, if you worry about diplomacy in the military, you should be paying attention to the food crisis, because it is lurking in the background, pushing those things," Barrett said.</p><p>Warnings from global organizations are growing louder and more desperate. According to the UN World Food Programme, 50 million people around the world are on the brink of famine and risk being tipped over, with the WFP's director calling it a "looming hunger catastrophe."</p><h2><strong>'It really is a bunch of crises coming together'</strong></h2><p>Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine pushed the global food system to a breaking point. Before the war, Russia and Ukraine together accounted for 30% of globally traded <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-wheat-russia-prices-food-crisis-2022-6">wheat</a>, 20% of maize, and 70% of sunflower supplies, according to the WFP.</p><p>The war hasn't just laid waste to farms. Putin's troops have blockaded Ukraine's Black Sea coast, stopping vital agricultural products from leaving the country. Meanwhile, the conflict and the resulting Western sanctions on Russia have sent energy costs shooting up, with oil prices up more than 40% this year, which in turn drives up the cost of fertilizer.</p><p>"This issue could be easily prolonged into next year, because if you're a Ukrainian producer and your domestic price is, say, half of what it is on a global basis, your incentive or your ability to plant the next crop has been curtailed significantly due to poor margins, as you are still paying high prices for inputs," Wayne Gordon, a senior commodities strategist at UBS, told Insider. </p><p>Although the Ukraine war sparked the crisis, other factors have been bubbling for a long time. Climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the rising number of conflicts around the world have piled pressure on the global food system in recent years.</p><div type="image" title="A drying ditch of water surrounded by golden grassy hills." height="2624" width="3936" msid="93281526" hostid="261"></div><p>Warning signs have been around since long before the Russian invasion — and can largely be chalked up to the climate crisis. In 2011, for example, the Black Sea region suffered a severe drought that caused a spike in the price of food, particularly wheat. Many analysts have said it contributed to the unrest that triggered the Arab Spring. Samuel Tilleray, a sovereign credit analyst at S&amp;P Global Ratings, told Insider that "there are clear parallels" to that 2011 drought today.</p><p>Greenhouse-gas emissions have sparked unpredictable weather patterns, and a UN report from last year found that by the end of the century, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/06/13/climate-disasters-collide-with-ukraine-war-deepen-hunger-crisis/">as much as 30%</a> of current farmland could become unsuitable to grow crops.</p><p>It's something the world is already seeing now. Severe drought has limited wheat production in major production states like Kansas, and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cooking-oil-shortage-ukraine-war-us-uk-indonesia-germany-netherlands-india-2022-5">cooking-oil prices have spiked</a> globally, thanks to drought in South America that limited soybean production.</p><p>The pandemic didn't help matters much, either. Cornell's Barrett said governments across the globe were "trying to revive economies struggling under the weight of the pandemic," but supply-chain disruptions were running rampant, and oil and ocean-freight prices were spiking. As a result, he said, supply was not keeping pace with demand, and prices were continuing to rise. </p><p>"Things were already really strained, and now we are facing even greater strain," Annabel Symington, a spokesperson for the World Food Programme on the global food crisis, said. "It really is a bunch of crises coming together."</p><h2><strong>The crisis impacts you</strong></h2><p>Food is a key element of any community's culture. When that element becomes scarce — or is removed altogether — civil unrest can occur. In 2008, the international price of wheat doubled, along with milk and meat, leading major producers to ban exports to ensure domestic populations would continue to have supply.</p><p>In Morocco, 10 people died in 2008 protesting the food shortages, spurring a wave of strikes and protests. In Bangladesh the same year, 10,000 workers rioted by smashing cars and vandalizing factories out of anger at spiking food prices. Experts say there's no reason this time will be different. </p><p>"High-food-price periods are associated and causally associated with a higher incidence of violence, of political unrest and social unrest," Barrett said. "They're also causally associated with higher rates of forced migration. When people can't feed their families where they live, they leave in search of food. And some of those migrations are quite treacherous."</p><p>But there are remedies — short- and long-term — that governments can employ to keep people fed. Symington, of the World Food Programme, said governments should give all they can to help avert the growing risk of famine in the world's most vulnerable regions. Barrett said that automatic safety-net provisions should always be in place to ensure there are financial resources when anyone becomes food insecure.</p><p>Over the longer term, Symington said international organizations and political leaders should also encourage a shift toward more local food production, making people less reliant on global supply chains. Barrett suggested the World Trade Organization should price stabilize exports to prevent "crazy price gyrations."</p><p>But no matter what actions governments take, life is going to get more expensive for all of us, and a lot more difficult for billions. "Even if you are well-fed and all your loved ones and neighbors are well-fed, you are impacted by this," Barrett said.</p>

We're in a global food crisis that will wreak havoc on local economies and trigger civil unrest

<ul><li>West Bengal sends 42 members to the Lok Sabha. </li><li>The two major political parties playing big roles this elections in the state are the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Trinamool Congress (TMC). </li><li>However, the state’s election is also marred by communal politics. </li></ul>The state of West Bengal sends 42 members to the Lok Sabha, the lower house of Indian Parliament, which has 543 seats. The polling has been spread out through all the seven phases of the ongoing election, not because of the states’ strength in the Parliament, but because the state embodies the country’s polarised and vitiated political environment like few others.<br /><br />The two major political parties playing big roles in this election are the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and both have completely different stance in the state. The fallout of the Congress and CPI(M) alliance further led to the BJP and TMC command authoritative positions in the elections. <br /><br />In its election manifesto, the BJP has once again pushed for the Citizenship Amendment Bill, which will move to grant citizenship to immigrants from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan and to deport undocumented immigrants, even  though Muslim immigrants will not be considered for it.<br /><br />The BJP’s <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/west-bengal/mamata-allying-with-those-who-wish-to-break-country-pm-modi/articleshow/68763916.cms">charge</a> is that the TMC has covertly built a Muslim vote bank for itself by bringing in illegal immigrants from neighbouring countries. The party’s growing <a href="https://www.firstpost.com/politics/bjp-making-inroads-in-bengal-clear-from-crowd-at-modis-kolkata-rally-tmcs-minority-appeasement-policy-a-factor-6384681.html">prominence</a> is a sign that the allegation is being accepted by a part of the state’s hindu population. <br /><br />Meanwhile, the TMC had <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/at-bengal-rally-pm-attacks-mamata-seeks-tmc-support-for-citizenship-bill/story-BOkijM1yoe0xdWBDZAjEvK.html">called</a> the bill “discriminatory” and the state’s muslim minority is backing her despite the annoyance with the government’s performance. A slew of governance issues and <a href="https://theprint.in/theprint-essential/saradha-ponzi-scheme-the-scam-behind-mamatas-dharna-against-cbi/187686/">corruption scandals </a>have marred chief minister Mamata Banerjee’s image. But the minorities back the chief minister, against the BJP, for the fear of vilification if the latter were to gain ground in the state.<br /><br />"Despite having anger against the state government over various issues including several riots that took place in the state, the minorities will vote for TMC in the state to ensure their safety and security," Mohammed Kamruzzaman, General Secretary of All Bengal Minority Youth Federation told PTI in <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/west-bengal/to-stop-bjp-minorities-likely-to-go-with-tmc-in-bengal/articleshow/68450898.cms">March</a>. <br /><br />Bengal used to be the hotbed for communal violence even before independence but communal violence had nearly disappeared by the turn of the previous century. It is making a comeback now.<br /><br />It is because of the heightened tensions that the BJP had even asked the Election Commission to declare West Bengal as a “super sensitive state”. <br /><br />The EC had then deployed 24 police observers in the state. “In every state, police observers are deployed. According to rough estimates of appointment, a police observer will supervise two constituencies. This is not unique to Bengal. In some places, the number of officers can be lesser, depending on the political situation,” a senior EC official had told <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/west-bengal/election-commission-appoints-24-observers-to-scan-west-bengal-police-machinery/articleshow/68624047.cms">ET</a>. <br /><br /><strong>See Also:</strong><br /><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/election-2019-bjp-candidate-list-for-west-bengal/articleshow/68811097.cms">Election 2019: BJP Candidate list for West Bengal</a><br /><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/lok-sabha-election-2019-tmc-candidate-list-for-west-bengal/articleshow/68811351.cms">Lok Sabha Election 2019: TMC Candidate List for West Bengal</a><br />

Elections 2019: Voting begins in West Bengal amid simmering communal tensions that have polarised the state’s population

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Kevin Frayer/Getty</span></p><p class="caption">The Uighurs, a Muslim ethnic minority in China, are subject to some of the most brutal and intrusive surveillance measures in the world.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul class="summary-list"><li><strong>The governor of Xinjiang, western China, claimed that Uighur Muslims in his region's re-education camps have a good life.</strong></li><li><strong>He said they were taught history and hairdressing, among other courses to make life "colorful."</strong></li><li><strong>Former detainees, meanwhile, have described being physically and psychologically tortured.</strong></li><li><strong>China subjects Uighurs to brutal and intrusive surveillance measures, which it describes as counterterrorism measures.</strong></li></ul><p>China has claimed that its controversial re-education camps - where persecuted Muslim ethnic minorities have described being beaten up and forced to chant patriotic songs or starve - were "free vocational training" centers that make life more "colorful."</p><p>Xinjiang government chairman Shohrat Zakir <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-10/16/c_137535821.htm">made the claim</a> to the state-run Xinhua news agency on Tuesday, referring to camps in the western Chinese region of Xinjiang, where 11 million members of the Uighur minority live.</p><p>Zakir said the camps exist "to get rid of the environment and soil that breeds terrorism and religious extremism and stop violent terrorist activities from happening."</p><p>His remarks are the first detailed description of re-education camps from a Chinese official. His account could not be further from how former detainees and witnesses have described those camps.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Lintao Zhang/Getty</span></p><p class="caption">Shohrat Zakir, chairman of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, claimed that Uighurs "have realized that life can be so colorful" after going to China's re-education camps.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>Hairdressing courses and film-screening rooms, according to Beijing</h2><p>Zakir said that people in the camps "will advance from learning the country's common language, to learning legal knowledge and vocational skills." He added that they will take lessons in subjects like Chinese history and constitutional law.</p><p>The vocational skills training includes courses on making clothes and footwear, assembling electronic products, typesetting, and hairdressing, Zakir said.</p><p>"Businesses in garment making, mobile phone assembly and ethnic cuisine catering are arranged to offer trainees practical opportunities," he said.</p><p>He also claimed that the centers have reading rooms, film-screening rooms, auditoriums, and open-air stages.</p><p>"Many trainees have said that they were previously affected by extremist thought and had never participated in such kinds of art and sports activities, and now they have realized that life can be so colorful," Zakir said, adding that the centers "pay high attention to the trainees' mental health" and provide psychological counseling services.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>AP Photo/Ng Han Guan</span></p><p class="caption">Omir Bekali, a Uighur man who had been detained in Xinjiang before, demonstrates how he was strung up by his arms at a Chinese detention camp during a March 2018 interview in Kazakhstan.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>Physical and psychological torture, according to former detainees</h2><p>People who have witnessed or been interned in one of Xinjiang's re-education or detention camps have described being <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/life-inside-china-internment-camps-for-uighur-minority-in-xinjiang-bbc-report-2018-8">shackled and beaten up, and forced to sing patriotic songs</a> about Chinese President Xi Jinping in order to be fed.</p><p>Some also described being told to renounce their religion, and believe that the Communist Party would take care of them instead, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/13/uighur-xinjiang-family-missing-china-kazakhstan">according to The Guardian</a>.</p><p>A former detainee told Human Rights Watch that he tried to kill himself while in one of the camps, and was given seven extra years of imprisonment as punishment for attempting suicide.</p><p>Many people also described being detained for <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/china-gives-these-excuses-to-imprison-uighur-ethnic-minority-2018-9/">bizarre and flimsy reasons</a>, such as setting a clock to two hours behind Beijing time, or knowing people who had traveled out of Xinjiang.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Kevin Frayer/Getty Images</span></p><p class="caption">Activists claim that China imprisoned 1 million Uighurs in detention centers or re-education camps in the region. Here, a Uighur man has his beard trimmed in Kashgar, Xinjiang, in 2017.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Zakir's remarks come as Xinjiang regional authorities passed new laws to <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/china-xinjiang-authorities-okay-uighur-re-education-camps-in-new-law-2018-10">encourage the building of "re-education centers"</a> in Xinjiang, which Beijing previously said did not exist.</p><p>The new laws also called on tech companies to <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/china-likely-laid-out-how-google-can-help-persecute-uighur-minority-2018-10">install "monitoring systems" on people's devices</a> and stop the transmission of messages unsavory to the Chinese regime.</p><p>Earlier this year activists claimed that China has imprisoned 1 million Uighurs in detention centers or re-education camps in the region. The United Nations in August also said it <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-rights-un/u-n-says-it-has-credible-reports-that-china-holds-million-uighurs-in-secret-camps-idUKKBN1KV23P">received "numerous and credible reports"</a> of those figures.</p><p>Beijing has repeatedly denied that number. On Monday, Hu Xijin, the editor of the state-run Global Times newspaper, <a href="https://twitter.com/HuXijin_GT/status/1051837551063916544">claimed</a> that the number of people in those camps were "much fewer" than the 1 million figure. He did not give another figure.</p><p>Hu added on Tuesday: "Vocational training centers may not be the ideal solution, but it works."</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Guang Niu/Getty</span></p><p class="caption">China has blamed Uighurs for various terrorist attacks and riots in the country. Here, Chinese policemen scuffle with Uighur women demonstrating against their relatives' detentions in Urumqi, Xinjiang, on July 7, 2009. More than 100 people died and hundreds others were detained from protests that day.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Uighurs are subject to some of the most brutal and intrusive surveillance in the world, which include being <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/meghara/the-police-state-of-the-future-is-already-here?utm_term=.prX2XROaV#.vjVnM3q0a">monitored by 40,000 facial recognition cameras</a> across the region, and having their <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-collects-dna-fingerprints-biometrics-from-residents-human-rights-watch-2017-12">DNA samples and blood types</a> recorded.</p><p>China justifies the surveillance as a counterterrorism measure, having blamed Uighurs for hundreds of terror attacks and riots over the past years.</p><p>Lijian Zhao, the deputy chief of mission at the Chinese embassy in Pakistan, also <a href="https://twitter.com/zlj517/status/1052113688818200576">claimed in a Tuesday tweet</a> that "thousands of terrorist incidents happened in Xinjiang" from the 1990s, but that "there is 0 terrorist attack in [the past] 21 months."</p><p>Leaders of the Muslim world have <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-muslim-countries-arent-criticizing-china-uighur-repression-2018-8">largely been silent</a> over China's Uighur crisis. But over the last month <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/pakistan-criticizes-china-over-repression-of-muslim-uighur-xinjiang-2018-9">Pakistan</a> and <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/malaysia-defies-china-over-muslim-uighur-perscutions-beijing-furious-2018-10">Malaysia</a> - two of China's largest economic allies in the Islamic world - broke ranks to criticize China's activity in Xinjiang. Hundreds of people across Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Kazakhstan <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-detentions-of-muslims-trigger-protests-in-islamic-world-1538040605">have also been protesting</a>.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span><a href="https://www.gettyimages.com/license/813182770">Kevin Frayer/Getty Images</a></span></p><p class="caption">Uighur men in Kashgar make bread under a poster of Chinese leaders, including Mao Zedong and Xi Jinping, in 2017. Detainees are reportedly forced to chant patriotic songs about Xi in order to get food in detention camps.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>The US is watching</h2><p>Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the UN <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/nikki-haley-resigns-un-ambassador-2018-10">who recently resigned</a>, slammed China's internment of Uighurs at a dinner for <keyword id="6354810" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="defense">defense</keyword> chiefs in Washington, DC, on Monday.</p><p>"In China, the government is engaged in the persecution of religious and ethnic minorities that is straight out of George Orwell," she said, according to Fox News national security correspondent <a href="https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1052013484945408001">Jennifer Griffin</a>.</p><p>"It is the largest internment of civilians in the world today - it may be the largest since World War II," Haley added.</p><p>A group of bipartisan US senators also <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/us-lawmakers-push-for-sanctions-against-china-over-uighur-repression-magnitsky-act-2018-8?r=US&amp;IR=T">wrote a letter last month</a> pushing for sanctions against Beijing over its Uighur surveillance.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/is-activated-charcoal-safe-for-eat-drink-teeth-whitening-2018-9">What activated charcoal actually does to your body</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

China claimed its re-education camps for Muslim minorities are 'free vocational training' that make life 'colorful'

<p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table center"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div><ul class="summary-list"><li><strong>China's Muslim minority, the Uighurs, are subject to harsh surveillance, with many interned in prison-like detention camps and forced to work.</strong></li><li><strong>Beijing justifies this crackdown as a counterterrorism measure, and calls the internment camps "free vocational training."</strong></li><li><strong>Countries in the Muslim world have largely avoided confronting Beijing over this crackdown in the past, but the tide is turning.</strong></li><li><strong>More and more Muslim countries are openly calling out China over its human rights record.</strong></li><li><strong>Human Rights Watch's China director says the next step is for the countries to take action to persuade or punish Beijing.</strong></li></ul><p>More and more countries are standing up to China over its oppression of the Uighurs, the country's majority-Muslim ethnic minority.</p><p>Beijing is accused of interning up to 1 million Uighurs in <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-camps-for-muslims-look-like-jail-cells-in-purported-video-2018-11">prison-like detention camps</a>, forcing them to renounce their religion and native language, and even <a href="https://apnews.com/99016849cddb4b99a048b863b52c28cb">pushing them into forced labor</a> with little to no pay.</p><p>Activists have found evidence of Chinese authorities <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/xianjiang-province-china-police-state-surveillance-2018-7">tracking Uighurs' cellphone activity</a> in their home region of Xinjiang, also known as East Turkestan.</p><p>Others say Beijing has demanded <span>demanded the Uighur diaspora&#xa0;</span><a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/china-compiling-uighur-muslim-global-database-reports-2018-8">hand over personal information</a>,<span>&#xa0;and threatened their families if they do not.</span></p><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div><p>Chinese authorities say the policies are a counterterrorism strategy, and that placing Uighurs in internment camps is "<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-calls-xinjiang-uighur-detention-camps-free-vocational-training-2018-10">free vocational training</a>."</p><p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-tries-to-cite-islamophobia-to-export-model-of-muslim-repression-2018-11">China is locking up its Muslim minorities, and pushing Islamophobia to get Europe to do it too</a></em></p><p>Until now,&#xa0;countries from the Muslim world <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-muslim-countries-arent-criticizing-china-uighur-repression-2018-8">have largely avoided bringing up China's Uighur crackdown</a>.</p><p>Experts say this was because countries feared economic retribution from China, or because many Arab states didn't want to draw attention to their own poor human rights records.</p><p>But the tide is turning.</p><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div><h2><strong>The crumbling wall of silence</strong></h2><p>In September, the federal minister for religion in Pakistan - China's closest economic ally in the Muslim world - openly criticized Beijing's regulation of Uighur activity, saying that the crackdown actually "<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pakistan-criticizes-china-over-repression-of-muslim-uighur-xinjiang-2018-9?r=US&amp;IR=T">increases the chances of an extremist viewpoint growing in reaction</a>."</p><p>A month later, Malaysia - another major economic ally, and home to many ethnic Chinese - <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/malaysia-defies-china-over-muslim-uighur-perscutions-beijing-furious-2018-10">ignored Beijing's requests</a> to deport a group of Uighurs imprisoned in the country.</p><p>Most prominently, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation -&#xa0; a consortium of 57 countries which calls itself &#xa0;"the collective voice of the Muslim world" - <a href="https://twitter.com/OIC_OCI/status/1072400713068744704">noted</a> in December "disturbing reports" of China's Muslim crackdown.</p><p>It said it hoped China "would address the legitimate concerns of Muslims around the world."</p><p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-xi-jinping-is-attacking-religion-in-china-2018-11">Jailing Muslims, burning Bibles, and forcing monks to wave the national flag: How Xi Jinping is attacking religion in China</a></em></p><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div><p>In countries where world leaders haven't stood up to China, there are prominent protests.</p><p><a href="https://nasional.sindonews.com/read/1363048/15/fadli-zon-pemerintah-indonesia-harus-bersuara-bela-muslim-uighur-1544864520">Prominent politicians</a> and <a href="https://en.antaranews.com/news/121350/indonesian-ulema-council-strongly-condemns-oppression-of-chinese-uighurs">religious figures</a> in Indonesia - the country with the highest proportion of Muslims in the world - are urging the government to speak up. It has so far refused to do so, <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2018/12/17/kalla-reasserts-indonesias-non-interference-stance-on-chinas-uighur-issue.html">saying</a> it that it didn't "want to intervene in the domestic affairs of another country."</p><p>Muslim groups in <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-detentions-of-muslims-trigger-protests-in-islamic-world-1538040605">India, Bangladesh, and Kazakhstan</a> also staged multiple protests&#xa0;over the Uighur detentions this year.</p><p>People have been particularly vocal in Kazakhstan, as many ethnic Kazakhs are said to be imprisoned in the China's camps. The government in June <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/qishloq-ovozi-kazakhstan-confronts-china-over-disappearances/29266456.html">said</a> "an urgent request was expressed" over the welfare of Kazakhs detained in China, but there have not been any significant updates.</p><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div><p>Western powers like the US, UK, and UN have criticised Beijing over its actions in Xinjiang in the past.</p><p>But the criticism of Muslim nations shows a turning tide in the world's attitude to China, said Sophie Richardson, Human Rights Watch's China director.</p><p>China has long batted away Western criticism, with state-run Global Times tabloid describing Western critics as "a <a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1126028.shtml">condescending judge</a>" earlier this year. China's foreign ministry said a reported investigation by western diplomats into the Uighur issue was "<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-slams-western-ambassadors-over-plan-to-grill-uighur-persecution-2018-11?r=US&amp;IR=T">very rude</a>."</p><p>Richardson said: "When governments like Indonesia or Malaysia ... or organizations like the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation speak up, China can no longer dismiss concerns about Xinjiang being some kind of Western conspiracy."</p><p>"That's very encouraging."</p><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div><h2><strong>The world is paying attention</strong></h2><p>The rising tide of outrage against China comes as more and more of the country's human rights record was brought to light this year.</p><p>This summer journalists, academics, and activists were taken aback by the disappearance of the Chinese "X-Men" actress <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/fan-bingbing">Fan Bingbing</a>, who Chinese authorities detained and kept from the public eye for three months over accusations that she evaded taxes.</p><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/meng-hongwei">Meng Hongwei</a>, the Lyon-based president of Interpol, remains missing after being mysteriously detained in China in late September. His wife <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meng-hongwei-interpol-president-missing-china-answers-2018-11">thinks he could be dead</a>.</p><p>The New York Times also featured a story about the Xinjiang detention camps on its front page for the first time this September:</p><p>Richardson said: "Increasingly, governments are seeing the way in which China uses thuggish tactics at home and overseas on governments and citizens, and are starting to realize it's time to push back against it."</p><p>"Three months ago, if you were to tell me there would be critical language coming out of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, I would have suggested it was unlikely," she said.</p><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div><h2><strong>Next comes action</strong></h2><p>Muslim countries' speaking up against China over the Uighurs is a significant first step, but is not likely to do much by itself.</p><p>Countries now need to take concrete action to punish or persuade China to end their crackdown on the Uighurs, Richardson said.</p><p>"The question now is what everybody is willing to do," she said. "Talking and putting in consequential actions are two different things. That's where the game shifts next."</p><p>Countries will also have to be "mindful that China will fight it tooth and nail," she added.</p><p>Members of the Muslim world could demand independent access into Xinjiang to investigate reports of the detention camps, for example.</p><p>The United Nations has already been doing this for months, but Beijing <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-tells-un-to-back-off-after-alleging-xinjiang-has-1-million-in-camps-2018-9?r=UK&amp;IR=T">told it to back off</a>.</p><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div><p>Another form of punishment could come in the form of sanctions, or cancelling contracts.</p><p>Richardson, the Human Rights Watch director, noted that the latest spate of accusations against China came at a time when multiple Muslim countries started reassessing their economic ties with Beijing.</p><p>Malaysia <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/malaysia-axes-22-billion-of-belt-and-road-projects-blow-to-china-2018-8?r=US&amp;IR=T">axed $22 billion</a>&#xa0;of Beijing-backed infrastructure projects this August. Egypt's talks with a Chinese building company for a $20 billion development also broke down this week, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-16/china-s-20-billion-new-egypt-capital-project-talks-fall-through">reported</a>. Neither of those cancellations were over the Uighur issue.</p><p>A group of US bipartisan lawmakers last month <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.rubio.senate.gov_public_-5Fcache_files_1045ec83-2D597c-2D4418-2D9299-2Dcb5973dd24c8_997C1A8CB02CAABCEB7A415B11E8A6A2.dav18g88.pdf&amp;d=DwMFAg&amp;c=L93KkjKsAC98uTvC4KvQDdTDRzAeWDDRmG6S3YXllH0&amp;r=Unt1UKRirB_XlfpBmSNNWuLPnyNdMnHE2-JmOx-uFX4&amp;m=L6CBo4CKEsqMa_0EQAHz5AS5Y0H8uCs86L-1oP_jEKg&amp;s=TJ6kZozAeL0yfwr8o5FnEABZg3-3Cb-qangcd-aHrrk&amp;e=">introduced</a> the Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act ("Uyghur" is an alternative spelling). <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-lawmakers-bill-punishing-china-over-uighur-muslim-persecution-2018-11">The act urges</a> the White House to consider imposing sanctions on Chinese officials responsible for the Uighur crackdown, as well as banning exports of US technology that could be used to oppress Uighurs.</p><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div><h2>Chinese cash could be hard to quit</h2><p>Whether Muslim countries follow suit remains to be seen, however. China is the largest trading partner of 20 of the 57 member states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, according to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-30/muslim-governments-stay-silent-as-china-cracks-down-on-uighurs">Bloomberg</a>.</p><p>Pakistan, whose religious minister criticized China's Uighur crackdown this year, is also one of the <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1438023">largest recipients</a> of Chinese aid and infrastructure contracts.</p><p>Earlier this month its foreign ministry rowed back the religious minister's comments, accusing the media of "trying to sensationalize" the Xinjiang issue, Agence France-Presse <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/south-asia/article/2178987/muslim-pakistan-says-outcry-over-chinas-xinjiang-detention">reported</a>.</p><p>Mohammad Faisal, a spokesman for the foreign ministry, also appeared to echo Beijing's line on the detention camps, saying that some Pakistani citizens who were detained in Xinjiang were "undergoing voluntary training" instead.</p><div></div>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coast-guard-boot-camp-military-basic-training-cape-may-new-jersey-2018-12">Inside the Coast Guard's 8-week boot camp where recruits go through extreme physical tests and brutal 'smoke sessions'</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

A wall of silence around China's oppression of its Muslim minority is starting to crumble

<p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div>In his first year as prime minister of India, Narendra Modi has done a pretty good job of defining his image as a sensible leader who's in touch with young people, technology, and maybe even with fashion (remember <a href="http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/with-3-outfit-changes-pm-modis-so-far-beating-michelle-obama-733491">all his outfit changes</a> when Obama came to visit?)<p>But on Sunday he made a serious gaffe.</p><p>On a visit with Bangladeshi prime minister Sheikh Hasina, Modi <a href="http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/06/08/india-bangladesh-modi-idINKBN0OO11Z20150608">attempted to praise her</a> for her effort to fight terrorism&#xa0;- "despite being a woman."</p><p>The hashtag #DespiteBeingAWoman obviously <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/DespiteBeingAWoman-Modis-praise-for-Hasina-goes-sour/articleshow/47586858.cms">blew up on Twitter</a>.&#xa0;</p><div><div></div></div><p class="embed-spacer"></p><div><div></div></div><p class="embed-spacer">Modi is an avid Twitter user himself. On the one year anniversary of his leadership, he used Twitter to <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/indian-prime-minister-narendra-modi-just-sent-an-twitter-dm-about-his-first-year-in-office-to-125-million-people-2015-5">direct message each one of his 12.5 million followers</a>.</p><p class="embed-spacer">He has not tweeted any correction or clarification about the controversial comment.</p><h3 class="embed-spacer">A dark history</h3><p>The Indian leader has had to overcome a much darker image that many in India associated with him before he was voted in - one of a pro-Hindu nationalist, stemming from the 2002 religious riots in his home state of Gujarat, where he was chief minister, and where many believed he played a role in the violence.</p><p>Between 900 and 2,000 people were killed, and some human rights organizations and opponents said he didn't take sufficient action to stop the violence, while others said he actually condoned and inflamed it.</p><p>While Modi reportedly used anti-Muslim rhetoric in an ensuing state-level election, he steered clear of any religious comments in the national election.</p><p>Instead, his campaign was centered around improving the economy, and built off his successful pro-business policies in Gujarat.</p><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div><p>Foreign policy did not play a central role in Modi's 2014 campaign, but he has since made some unexpected strides on that front.</p><p>He's already made 20 foreign visits in the past year, from Europe to Africa, North America, Latin America, and around Asia. He's also received visits from leaders like US president Barack Obama, Russian president Vladimir Putin, and Chinese president Xi Jinping.</p><p>Bangladesh, a majority Muslim country, neighbors India. Despite some areas of contention, the two nations have shared relatively warm relations since Bangladesh's independence in 1971.</p><p>Hopefully Sunday's slip up doesn't change any of that.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/video-earthquake-damage-nepal-2015-4">Stunning video shows the earthquake damage across Nepal</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="8xMzdydDrBxdQLqopn9H4eNVL_xUBiWS" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

The prime minister of India just made his first really embarrassing gaffe

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Reuters</span></p></div><p></p></div>Elections are underway in India and results are due May 16.</p>
<p>Many expect opposition leader Narendra Modi to become India's next prime minister and there's hope he could help revive economic growth in India which has been languishing.</p>
<p>Modi has been credited with driving Gujarat's economic growth since he took the helm as chief minister of the north west Indian state in 2001.</p>
<p><strong>Modinomics: The Gujarat story</strong></p>
<p>In a report published in September last year, Vijay K. Gaba at InvesTrekk wrote that "India is struggling with the limitations of the Nehruvian model of economic development that we have followed since independence." </p>
<p>He described the current model as one that general calls for a large role of the private sector, but with "active state intervention during extremities of business cycle and argues against higher savings in both private and public sector." Modinomics on the other hand supports a free market with minimal state intervention.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/daa87f88-ae0e-11e3-974d-00144feab7de.html#axzz2yVF5E74I">David Pilling at the Financial Times</a> also recently wrote of Modi's getting-things-done leadership style. "Part of Mr Modi's attraction is that, by sheer force of will, he may be able to override some of the checks and balances of Indian democracy and introduce some of the clear-headedness of growth-driven China," he wrote.</p>
<p>Gujarat's real GDP has climbed 10.3% year-over-year between fiscal year (FY) 2003 and FY12, that's 2.4 percentage points above India's real GDP growth in the same period, Christopher Wood at CLSA pointed out in a note late last year.</p>
<p>Modi's candidacy is "about marketing the impressive track record in Gujarat over a 12-year period of achieving broad-based growth across the agricultural, manufacturing and service sectors since Modi assumed office…" Wood writes. </p>
<p>"Modi's best chance of winning convincingly is if he can tap, helped by the intelligent use of social media, 'big data' and the like, the pro-growth aspirations of an estimated 149m young voters who will be voting for the first time in next year's general election, representing about 20% of the electorate.</p>
<p>Last year, Goldman Sachs put out a note titled <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-report-angers-indian-government-2013-11">'Modi-fying our view: raise India to Marketweight'</a>. Timothy Moe, author of the note cited six key reasons for this, the top being, ""optimism over political change, led by BJP's prime ministerial candidate Mr. Modi, is dominating economic concerns," sparking outrage in India.</p>
<p><strong>Is it all just hype?<br /></strong></p>
<p>But some legitimately wonder if Modinomics will work for the rest of India and if Modi has been too generous in slathering on this self-praise.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/13/modinomics-narendra-modi-india-bjp">The Guardian</a> and <a href="http://qz.com/171409/gujarat-by-the-numbers/">Quartz</a> took a long look at Gujarat's economy in the years before Modi came to power, and found that Gujarat was doing well in the two decades before Modi came to power. And certain indicators like foreign direct investment, show that Gujarat actually lags other states.</p>
<p>There are also those that argue that placing the blame of recent lackluster growth squarely on the shoulders of the central government is too simplistic.</p>
<p>"The belief in certain quarters is that as long as the next government were to go all out at de-bottle-necking projects, sentiment would surge and this would spark an investment revival in the economy," writes Toshi Jain at JPMorgan. But he thinks this is an "overly-simplistic read on the situation" because many stalled projects have more to do with various state governments than the central government. Perhaps then, a Modi government would also hit the same roadblocks.</p>
<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>AP Photo/Manish Swarup</span></p></div><p></p></div><strong>Modi can't shake his past<br /></strong></p>
<p>There is of course one thing that Modi has never been able to dodge, questions surrounding his role in the deadly Gujarat riots of 2002, in which over 1,000 people were killed, women raped, and thousands displaced.</p>
<p>Modi's detractors also point to his ties to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) a Hindu supremacist group.</p>
<p>Nomura's Alastair Newton points out that on a February 23 rally in Assam, Modi called for Hindu migrants from Bangladesh to be assimilated back into India. He also said non-Hindus should be sent back to their home nations. Modi's rhetoric has raised concerns about what this could mean for neighborhood politics. <a href="http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/VPNxrUuYeE4eSiC6nIF7NM/The-symbolism-of-Varanasi-in-2014.html"></a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/VPNxrUuYeE4eSiC6nIF7NM/The-symbolism-of-Varanasi-in-2014.html">Indian publication LiveMint</a> also pointed to Modi's decision to contest the seat in the holy city of Varanasi as a sign that he hasn't abandoned his Hindu supremacist ideology: </p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">"It is widely expected that Modi's nomination from Varanasi will positively affect the outcome for the BJP in a number of other seats in Eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar which are electorally important as together the two states send 120 lawmakers to the Lok Sabha. Further, the choice of Varanasi is also symbolic in nature which indicates that the party may not have completely abandoned the Hindutva ideology."</p>
<p><strong>It's a guessing game<br /></strong></p>
<p>For now the polls are calling for a BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) and NDA (National Democratic Alliance) coalition, winning 230-240 seats and headed by Narendra Modi. But Indian polls have been woefully wrong in the past. </p>
<p>In 2004, the polls grossly overestimated the seats the incumbent would win and the Sensex crashed 11% the day after, and the rupee lost 3%. In 2009, the polls underestimated the seats the incumbent would win and the following day stocks went on a tear and the rupee surged 4%.</p>
<p>The bottom line however is that whichever party comes to power, they have a long road to reviving economic growth. Morgan Stanley's Ridham Desai thinks the new government needs to <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/india-sees-worlds-biggest-election-2014-4">push through five key reforms</a>. Drive wage growth in line with productivity, cut the fiscal deficit, improve the business environment, rethink India's urbanization policy, and address structural rigidities in the energy and mining sectors.</p>
<p>If the rise of what's been <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/why-indian-2014-elections-matter-2013-9">dubbed India's third front</a>, a string of regional parties, does end with a messy coalition, the Indian economy could continue to sputter for another five years.</p>

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