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India's retail inflation is projected to surge to 6.15% in October, exceeding the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) tolerance threshold of 6%, according to a new report by Union Bank of India. The spike is attributed to persistent <keyword id="21013592" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-price-pressures" source="keywords">food price pressures</keyword> and the waning of favorable base effects from the previous year. Earlier this month, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das also echoed similar sentiments and noted that the inflation print for October 2024 could stay well above 5.5%. This is why, as Das highlighted, cutting interest rates as early as December would be very early and premature The <keyword id="19999655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Index" source="keywords">Consumer Price Index</keyword> (CPI) data for October, which will be released at 4 pm on Tuesday, as opposed to the previous practice of releasing this data at 5:30 pm on the 12th of every month, follows September's inflation reading of 5.49%, up from 3.65% in August 2024. The last time inflation breached the RBI's upper limit was in August 2023. Despite the RBI's anticipation of an October inflation "hump," the Union Bank report suggests that the magnitude of the increase might raise concerns, particularly as November's figures are also tracking at elevated levels. The bank maintains its forecast of unchanged interest rates in December's monetary policy meeting, with a modest 50 basis points rate cut cycle predicted to begin in February 2025. Food inflation remains a key driver of price pressures, with vegetables and edible oils leading the recent surge. In September 2024, India's YoY food inflation rate hit 9.24%, up from 5.66% in the month prior. However, the report projects some easing of food inflation in the January-March quarter, citing typical winter price moderation and improving prospects for rabi crops. Despite this, potential risks from food supply disruptions, imported edible oil prices, and the impact of potential trade tariff hikes will exist. The RBI, which aims to maintain retail inflation at 4%, has held the repo rate steady at 6.5% for the tenth consecutive time in its last meeting as part of its inflation containment strategy. A recent SBI report also noted that expecting rate cuts in this quarter would be immature, and easing was possible only during the first half of 2025. "Given the current estimates of FY25 real GDP growth at 7.2% and CPI at 4.50%, the RBI would quite possibly keep policy rates stable over the coming quarter at least. Emerging trends in the growth outlook would possibly determine the timing and extent of any policy easing. With near-term CPI numbers likely to stay elevated, it’s premature to consider expectations of any easing in the December review. "However, high-frequency data do validate a softness in growth data on an incremental basis. Given the anticipated aligning of CPI closer to the target over H2, a shallow easing, if any can be a reasonable possibility over H1 of CY 25", it added.

Retail inflation expected to breach 6% mark in October, says UBI Report

The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> announced the decision of the newly formed six-member MPC (<keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword>) today, following the conclusion of the three-day meeting, which began on October 7, 2024. Treading along expected lines, RBI rate-setting panel left the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the 10th consecutive time, in its 51st meeting today. The decision was made by a majority, with 5 out of 6 members voting for leaving the rate unchanged. This is the fourth bi-monthly monetary policy review for FY25, and the first since three external members were appointed to the panel earlier this month. The tenure of the previous three members had come to an end on October 4, 2024. While the outgoing members include Ashima Goyal (emeritus professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research), Shashanka Bhide (honorary senior advisor, National Council of Applied Economic Research); and Jayanth R. Varma(professor, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad), the income members are Ram Singh (Director, Delhi School of Economics), Saugata Bhattacharya, an economist; and Nagesh Kumar (Director and chief executive, Institute for Studies in Industrial Development). <h2>Wait and Watch </h2>RBI also changed its policy stance to neutral, while remaining committed to growth and bringing down inflation to its target of 4%. This means that at present, the bank is not inclined to either increase or decrease the interest rates, but will take a call depending on macroeconomic conditions and prevailing factors. "Taking all these factors into consideration, the real GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 7.2%, with Q2 at 7%, Q3 at 7.4% and Q4 at 7.4%", he said. As for inflation, Das highlighted that headline inflation had softened significantly in July and August and even food inflation experienced a certain degree of correction during these two months. Keeping this in mind, CPI inflation for 2024-25 i.e. current year is projected at 4.5%, with Q2 at 4.1%, Q3 at 4.8% and Q4 at 4.2%. CPI for first quarter of next financial year i.e. 2025-26 is estimated at 4.3%. "It's with a lot of effort that inflation horse has been brought to the stable, i.e. closer to the target and within the tolerance span, compared to its place or heightened levels two years ago. We have to be very careful about opening the gate, as the horse may simply hold again. We must keep the horse in tight leash, so that we do not lose control", Das added. Most economists had anticipated a change in the central bank's current policy stance of 'withdrawal of accommodation'. This policy stand indicates that any interest rate cuts are presently off the table. However, given the ongoing geopolitical crisis and Fed's jumbo rate cut by 50-basis points last month, RBI may bring about a cut in interest rates, sooner than later. However, since food inflation remains high at 5.42% as of July 2024, experts had also estimated that now might not have been a good time for RBI to bring down interest rates. Moreover, PMI (purchase managers index) indices, which help in gauging the health of manufacturing and service sectors in the country, presently stand at a multi-month low, and even the core sector output is witnessing a contraction after 42 straight months. As Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research had highlighted, the current circumstances are not really conducive for RBI to opt for any affirmation action towards an easier monetary policy. "While the fear of the inflation “elephant” may have subsided with the CPI headline print well within 4.0% over the last two months and a favorable monsoon, the concerns around the stability of food inflation still linger among policy makers. The RBI may wait till December 2024 or February 2025 to make a rat cut, he continued. <h2>Housing sector rejoices</h2>From the point of view of homebuyers, the relatively affordable home loan interest rate regime will continue at a critical time for the Indian housing market - the festive season - amid rising housing prices and tapered sales. Q3 2024 saw average housing prices rise by a cumulative 23% in the top 7 cities even as average prices in these markets collectively rose to approximately Rs 8,390 per sq. ft. by Q3 2024-end, from Rs 6,800 per sq. ft. in Q3 2023. "The unchanged home loan rates are much-needed demand support in the ongoing festive quarter. We are expecting faster sales momentum in Q4 2024 when compared to the preceding quarter. This year's festive quarter may see similar demand to that seen in this period a year ago, if not higher. Over 1.27 lakh units were sold across the top 7 cities back in Q4 2023. Unchanged interest rates will play and important role in achieving and maintaining this momentum", says Anuj Puri, Chairman - ANAROCK Group

RBIs MPC meet concludes today: Repo rate left unchanged at 6.5%

In a significant move, the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) has imposed penalties on <keyword id="19952948" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="axis-bank" source="keywords">Axis Bank</keyword> and <keyword id="19895995" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="hdfc-bank" source="keywords">HDFC Bank</keyword> for lapses in regulatory and statutory compliance. The fines, which amount to a total of ₹2.91 crore, highlight the central bank's ongoing efforts to ensure that financial institutions adhere to prescribed guidelines. The RBI levied a penalty of ₹1.91 crore on Axis Bank for violations that included contraventions of the <keyword id="19976511" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banking-regulation-act" source="keywords">Banking Regulation Act</keyword> and non-compliance with specific RBI directions related to interest rates on deposits, Know Your Customer (KYC) norms, and collateral-free loans for agriculture. Meanwhile, HDFC Bank faced a ₹1 crore fine for failing to comply with directions concerning interest rates, customer service practices, and the use of recovery agents. <h2>Axis Bank: Key regulatory failures</h2>Axis Bank’s penalty stems from a supervisory evaluation conducted by the RBI based on its financial position as of March 31, 2023. Upon reviewing the bank’s activities, the RBI found several areas of non-compliance. One of the primary issues was the opening of savings deposit accounts in the names of ineligible entities, a direct violation of regulatory norms. Additionally, Axis Bank was found to have issued multiple customer identification codes to certain clients instead of assigning a Unique Customer Identification Code (UCIC), which is mandatory to avoid duplication and ensure proper monitoring of accounts. The bank also violated guidelines concerning agricultural loans. RBI regulations prohibit banks from asking for collateral for agricultural loans up to ₹1.60 lakh, but Axis Bank had obtained such collateral in certain cases. Lastly, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Axis Bank was found to be engaged in providing technology services—an activity that is not permissible for a banking company. This contravention added to the overall penalty levied by the central bank. <h2>HDFC Bank: Regulatory shortcomings</h2> In the case of HDFC Bank, the RBI’s investigation was based on its financial position as of March 31, 2022. The central bank uncovered several violations, including the offering of gifts, specifically covering the first-year premium for complimentary life insurance, which exceeded the permissible limit of ₹250. Moreover, HDFC Bank was found to have opened savings accounts in the names of ineligible entities, a violation similar to that of Axis Bank. Another significant failure was the bank’s inability to ensure that customers were not contacted by bank officials outside the permitted time frame of 7 am to 7 pm. <h2>RBI's Stance on Compliance</h2> While the RBI has been stringent in penalising both banks, it clarified that these penalties are based on lapses in regulatory compliance and are not reflective of the validity of any transactions or agreements between the banks and their customers. The central bank’s message is clear—financial institutions must adhere strictly to guidelines to maintain transparency, protect customers, and uphold the integrity of the banking system. The penalties serve as a reminder to all banks to stay vigilant and maintain high standards of compliance to avoid such financial and reputational damage in the future. Both Axis Bank and HDFC Bank have accepted the fines and are expected to take corrective actions to avoid future infractions. For customers, this action from the RBI is a reassurance that regulatory oversight remains a priority to ensure fair banking practices across the country.

RBI slaps fine of Rs 2.91 crore on Axis Bank and HDFC Bank: All details

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Investors need to be wary as sticky inflation remains a risk, Deutsche Bank says.</li><li>The firm detailed five reasons why consumer prices could stay persistently elevated.</li></ul>It's tempting to think the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation is over, given the central bank's recent rate cuts and sharpened <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cut-explained-inflation-labor-market-conditions-outlook-recession-2024-9">focus on the labor market</a>. But it's not yet time for investors to relax, Deutsche Bank wrote on Monday.Though inflation now hovers close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target rate, it's not yet time to declare victory: prices continue to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">run hotter than expected</a>, and that's happening alongside monetary easing."If inflation does return, this could have very important implications for markets," Deutsche Bank strategists said. "We saw in 2022 how there was a massive selloff across both bonds and equities."The firm detailed five reasons why inflation risks must still be monitored:First, initial interest-rate cuts have been more broader and deeper than expected on a global basis. In the US, the Federal Reserve cut the Fed funds rate by 50 basis points, citing lower headline inflation to justify its aggressive policy flip.While that much is true, history shows that easing cycles are precisely the time to be cautious over inflation, Deutsche said."If inflation does prove sticky above target today, then that could force central banks to keep monetary policy in restrictive territory for longer," the note said.Second, stimulus momentum in China and worsening geopolitics in the Middle East have triggered a notable pickup in commodity prices.Oil prices have jumped this month as investors adjust to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. After an Iranian missile attack on Israel triggered promises of retaliation, the market has braced for a possible disruption to the region's crude output.<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent</a> crude gained sharply in early October, peaking at $80 per barrel. Deutsche noted this as a considerable high, noting that the international benchmark traded below $70 a barrel just one month prior.If Israel's response decimated Iran's oil installations, analysts expect prices to hit as much as $200 per barrel.Meanwhile, industrial metals such as <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/copper-price">copper</a> have also taken flight, after China announced a series of stimulus measures to reenergize its fleeting economy. The metal is a key component in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-copper-iron-ore-stay-stimulus-believers-others-sceptical-russell-2024-10-14/">construction and manufacturing</a>, and can stand to benefit if the world's second-largest economy recovers.Third, odds of a US recession are ebbing as the economy shows signs of resilience that could keep inflation elevated."Much as the stronger news on growth is welcome, it also means that economic demand and inflation is likely to be stronger than it would otherwise have been," analysts wrote.Fourth, September's consumer price index report surprised investors last week.Not only was the inflation reading higher than estimated, core CPI ran at its fastest pace in six months, gaining 0.31%. Core CPI's three-month annualized rate moved up to 3.1%, compared to August's 2.1% print."Although that's only one report, it served as a reminder of how inflation could prove more persistent, and it were the stickier categories in the basket that were holding inflation up," Deutsche wrote. For instance, the Atlanta Fed's "sticky CPI" measure stood at its strongest in five months.Fifth, money supply growth is still accelerating.According to the bank, an increase in this measure can be read as an advance warning that inflation could stay persistently high. This was the case in the post-pandemic period, Deutsche said — though it is admittedly moving up from a low base.The firm cited the fact that in August, US M2 money supply rose 2.0% year-over-year, the highest growth rate since September 2022.

5 reasons why inflation will be stickier than expected going forward, Deutsche Bank says

Are you an avid credit card user? Are you up to speed with all the changes that have come into effect starting today, which is all set to impact your credit card usage, and your pocket. Here's a quick snapshot of all the changes that you should be well aware of: <h2><keyword id="19900482" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ICICI-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="ICICI Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="ICICI Bank">ICICI Bank</keyword> </h2>Starting today, ICICI bank has done away with fees for many services, which include request for a charge slip, which was earlier chargeable at Rs 100/slip and cash and cheque pick up, which also carried a fee of Rs 100 earlier. Earlier, for outstation cheque processing and duplicate bank statement (for three months), a fee of Rs 100 was payable. Now, all those charges have been waived. However, going ahead, you'll have to dish out Rs 200 instead of Rs 100, if you wish to get your credit card replaced. <h2><keyword id="19952948" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Axis-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Axis Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Axis Bank">Axis Bank</keyword></h2>If you hold a <keyword id="19941660" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Citibank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Citibank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Citibank">Citibank</keyword> credit card, this is for you. The migration of all Citibank <keyword id="19953671" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="credit-cards" source="keywords">credit cards</keyword> to Axis bank will be complete by 15th July, 2024. Post that, you will receive new credit cards from Axis bank .However, until then, your existing Citibank cards will continue to work just fine. All your unredeemed points will be converted into EDGE miles. After migration, they will have an expiration period of 3 years. Starting today, RBIs new rules mandate that all credit card transactions in the country be processed through <keyword id="20779381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bharat-Bill-Payment-System" source="keywords">Bharat Bill Payment System</keyword> (BBPS). This means that if your bank has not come on board with BBPS, you will not be able to make payment through their credit card on other third-party platforms. Out of 34 banks that can issue credit cards, 12 banks have come onboard the BBPS. These include SBI, <keyword id="19938728" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kotak-mahindra" source="keywords">Kotak Mahindra</keyword>, IndusInd, Federal, HDFC, ICICI and IDFC bank. Indian Overseas bank and <keyword id="45660" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="yes-bank" source="Orion">YES Bank</keyword> are expected to go live soon. <h2>SBI Bank</h2>Starting July 15th, if you hold one of the 22 specified SBI credit cards, you will no longer accrue any reward points while making certain transactions, particularly if they are related to government services. These include Air India SBI Platinum Card, Air India SBI Signature Card, Central SBI Select+ Card, Chennai Metro SBI Card, Etihad Guest SBI Card, Fabindia SBI Card SELECT, IRCTC SBI Card, Mumbai Metro SBI Card and more. <h2>YES Bank </h2>If you hold a YES Bank credit card, the criteria for you to qualify for complimentary lounge access has changed. Starting today, you will have to spend at least Rs 35,000 from your credit card in the previous quarter, in order to be able to get a complimentary access to domestic airport lounges in the next quarter. Earlier, this threshold was set at Rs 10,000. This will impact YES Marquee, YES SELECT, YES Reserv, YES First Preferred, YES Bank ELITE, YES BYOC, and YES Wellness Plus cards. <h2>HDFC Bank</h2>Starting August 1st, if you make rent, or education related payments via platforms like Cred and Paytm, you will have to pay a fee of upto 1% of the transaction, which will be a maximum of Rs 3,000. However, if you make the payment directly through your school or college's website, you will be able to save on this charge. Similarly, on all fuel expenses of over Rs 15,000, a 1% fee will be applied, which can be a maximum of Rs 3,000.

What has changed for your credit cards, starting today?

Domestic <keyword id="19910265" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="keywords">gold prices</keyword> have risen by 10% on a year-to-date basis on the back of the strength in global gold prices, which have surged by 18% year-to-date, driven by robust <keyword id="19894998" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="central-bank" source="keywords">central bank</keyword> purchases, heightened geopolitical risks, and growing expectations of a monetary policy pivot from the <keyword id="19901377" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="us-federal-reserve" source="keywords">US Federal Reserve</keyword>, according to the <keyword id="20195223" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Gold-Council" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="World Gold Council" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="World Gold Council">World Gold Council</keyword>. The reduction in <keyword id="20069572" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="import-duty" source="keywords">import duty</keyword> has ignited a resurgence in gold demand across <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>. Reports from the recently concluded India International Jewellery Show indicate a substantial increase in order bookings from retailers, particularly in preparation for the upcoming festive and wedding season. Manufacturers have noted that in some cases, orders have reached levels not seen in several years, underscoring the strong buying interest among <keyword id="21595593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jewellery-retailers" source="keywords">jewellery retailers</keyword> and consumers alike. The trend of bar and coin buying has also remained robust, with both consumers and jewellers capitalizing on the more attractive prices to stock up for future manufacturing needs. Historical analysis suggests that Indian consumer demand, encompassing jewellery and bar and coin demand, could see an additional 50 tonnes or more in the second half of 2024. This potential increase is fueled by a combination of an initial boost in consumer appetite due to the more attractive prices and a longer-term alignment of local prices with international rates. In a notable shift, domestic gold prices, which had been trading at a discount to international prices for five consecutive months, have now started trading at a premium following the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> announcement. The discount had widened significantly in July, reaching a peak of around $80 per ounce in the third week of the month, driven by subdued demand and an increased supply of gold through various preferential trade agreements and unofficial channels. However, wholesalers who had inventory purchased under the old customs duty regime began selling gold at a premium to the landed cost to mitigate their losses, further supported by increased consumer demand. While the premiums have moderated recently, from $28 per ounce to around USD 5 per ounce, this shift highlights the changing market sentiment and the impact of rising international gold prices and potential inventory valuation adjustments. The changes introduced in the Union Budget, including a reduction in the long-term investment holding period and a lower tax rate, have made gold ETFs a more attractive investment option. Data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) reveals that net inflows into gold ETFs in July amounted to Rs 13.4 billion (approximately USD 160 million), marking the highest monthly inflows since February 2020 and an 84% increase compared to June 2024. Despite these inflows, the total assets under management (AUM) for Indian gold ETFs grew marginally by 0.3% from the previous month, reaching Rs 345 billion ($4.1 billion). This modest increase can be attributed to the 8 % fall in domestic gold prices following the import duty reduction. Year-to-date, net inflows into Indian gold ETFs have totalled Rs 45 billion ($543 million), with total AUMs rising by 48 % from a year ago. The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) has continued its gold purchasing trend, although at a slower pace following a significant increase in June, when purchases reached 9.3 tonnes--the highest monthly total in nearly two years. Year-to-date, the RBI's gold acquisitions have totaled 44.3 tonnes, surpassing the total purchases of the past two years combined. The RBI's gold reserves have now reached a record 849 tonnes, representing 8.8% of total foreign reserves, compared to 7.5 % a year ago. In July, gold imports remained steady at $3.1 billion, maintaining the stable trend observed over the previous three months. Between April and July, imports averaged $3.2 billion, with volumes ranging between 43 and 47 tonnes during this period. The gold import bill for July 2024 was 11 % lower than the previous year, with an estimated 26% decrease in volume terms, around 47 tonnes. Despite a surge in international gold prices, domestic gold prices in India have experienced a notable decline, primarily due to the 9 % reduction in import duty announced in the Union Budget 2024-25. This policy change has led to a 6% decrease in the landed cost of gold, marking a shift in the domestic gold market dynamics.

Domestic gold prices surge 10% amid global price rally, central bank buying: World Gold Council

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks were on a roll following Donald Trump's victory in last week's election.</li><li>Markets are banking on lower taxes and fewer restrictions on businesses.</li></ul>The week since the US elections was better for stocks than anyone other than Donald Trump's biggest supporters could have expected.Many parts of the market <a target="_blank" href="https://www.sectorspdrs.com/sectortracker">caught fire</a> ever since Republicans significantly outpaced polls on November 5. The consensus view among strategists is that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-trump-win-election-stock-market-outlook-strategy-2024-11">US stocks are set up for success during Trump's next term</a>, as they believe his policies will benefit corporations and the economy.Sébastien Page, an investment chief and head of global multi-asset at T. Rowe Price, is mostly on board with this upbeat sentiment. He told Business Insider last week that the post-election relief rally checks out, as markets finally have more clarity about policy in the next four years."The reduction in the uncertainty that we had going into the election — that's good for stocks," Page said in an interview, as are the possibilities of deregulation and corporate tax cuts.Even more vital for stocks is the economic growth backdrop. Widely followed indicators like GDP growth and the unemployment rate <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-outlook-tariffs-trump-trade-war-slowdown-jpmorgan-david-kelly-2024-10">suggest that the US is already on solid ground</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence">consumer sentiment is rebounding strongly</a> from perplexingly low levels.While there have been signs of softness in the labor market, including <a target="_blank" href="https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/ces0000000001?output_view=net_1mth">lackluster job additions in four of the last five months</a>, Page expects the economic expansion to roll on — at least for now."The probability of recession is rarely zero, but my view is, it's unlikely for the next 12 months," Page said.<h2 id="d6647ee1-0cb2-4d09-9bed-457944a6aa59">3 key risks to watch heading into 2025</h2>Although Page is optimistic about the path forward for stocks and the economy, he thinks investors shouldn't ignore three risks that could cause a market reversal.Chief among Page's concerns is that valuations are historically high and leave little room for error on the earnings front.The S&amp;P 500's 35.6% rise in the last 12 months and 67% gain since its bear-market low in October 2022 has pushed the index's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to over 22x. That's the <a target="_blank" href="https://yardeni.com/charts/stock-market-p-e-ratios/">one of the richest marks in the last two decades</a>, and it suggests this supportive backdrop is no secret.<div type="image" title="S&amp;P 500 val 11-12-24" height="1120" width="1990" msid="115253245" hostid="261" sizebytes="168202"></div>And even if growth stays robust, stocks may have already pulled forward future gains."If you had to summarize my view, I'm positive on the economy, but I think it's mainly priced in," Page said.If earnings continue to defy expectations, as they have again in the third quarter, stocks could keep climbing. Profits increased about 7.1% in Q3, which is much higher than <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-q3-earnings-season-recession-risk-investing-strategy-2024-10">the 4.6% that analysts were calling for</a>. That's an underrated reason why stocks have done so well lately.But otherwise, it's quite possible that the S&amp;P 500 could give back much of its recent gains."There's a lot priced in," Page said. "The earnings expectations for next year are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-q3-earnings-season-recession-risk-investing-strategy-2024-10">about 15% growth</a>. We're tracking at around 9% growth this year."Page added: "Earnings coming up is good, but high expectations can lead to disappointment."Stocks often perform well in expansions, the investment chief said, though there are exceptions.In 2022, the S&amp;P 500 had its worst year since the financial crisis, <a target="_blank" href="https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/spearn.htm">even as earnings ticked up</a>. Stocks were plagued by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-price-growth-june-2022-7">multi-decade high inflation</a>, interest rate hikes, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-q2-economic-growth-recession-inflation-hiring-us-recovery-progress-2022-7">two quarters of negative GDP</a>, and geopolitical flare-ups like Russia's invasion of Ukraine.Most of those concerns have since been neutralized, though new ones could pop up whenever."There's always tail risks, and next year it could be geopolitics — maybe another oil shock," Page said. "But I don't personally see a repeat of '22, unless something major happens to maybe commodity markets, or a major disappointment in earnings — something unexpected in terms of some of those flagship companies that are dominating the market."The last major concern Page cited is one that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-trump-president-economy-tariffs-trade-war-kelly-2024-11">many market observers have warned about lately</a>: a global trade war defined by steep tariffs, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-trump-harris-economy-inflation-stock-market-volatility-risk-orlik-2024-10">which could hurt growth and spark inflation</a>."The market might be underestimating the potential impact of trade wars that could be disruptive," Page said. "Maybe the market is thinking, 'This is a problem for another day,' and we'll see. But the president has more power over trade policy than fiscal, and all those expectations [are] for lower taxes, so maybe the market's underestimating this a little bit."Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/trump-favors-huge-new-tariffs-how-do-they-work">has hinted</a> that he'll put 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and up to 20% tariffs on other foreign goods, though even some of his outspoken critics have said that he might be bluffing. That's Page's hunch as well."It's not necessarily what is actually going to happen," Page said. "With this administration, there's a tendency to use tariffs as part of a strategy to bring manufacturing into the country, as a negotiation tool."If Trump actually implements such tariffs, pundits like Anthony Scaramucci have said <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-risk-outlook-trump-deportation-tariff-anthony-scaramucci-2024-11">there'd be a major market meltdown</a>. Page had no such call, but even if there was a modest pullback, the investment chief wouldn't necessarily complain."We like to buy when markets sell off," Page said.

'High expectations can lead to disappointment': A top strategist at T. Rowe Price outlines the 3 risks he's watching as markets celebrate Trump's win

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Tesla stock is down 7% since it reported third-quarter vehicle deliveries on Wednesday. </li><li>JPMorgan sees the stock drifting even lower, by as much as 48% to its $130 price target.</li></ul>JPMorgan raised its price target for Tesla stock — but the bank still sees shares of Elon Musk's electric carmaker falling almost 50% in the coming year. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/TSLA-stock">Tesla</a> stock is down 7% since it reported <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-q3-deliveries-preview-wall-street-expects-beat-mojo-returns-2024-9">third-quarter vehicle deliveries</a> on Wednesday, but JPMorgan thinks it can go much lower.In a Thursday note, the bank set its December 2025 Tesla stock price target to $130, representing potential downside of 48% from Wednesday's close.That target is a slight increase from the bank's prior target of $115 a share.According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/jpm-stock">JPMorgan</a> analyst Ryan Brinkman, Tesla could be on the verge of not growing its full-year unit volumes for the first time ever."The continued softer trend now appears to position Tesla to potentially not grow full year unit volumes for the first time in its history, which we estimate could cause incrementally more investors to reconsider the company's growth stock multiple," Brinkman said.Year-to-date, Tesla has delivered 1.29 million vehicles. To exceed its 2023 vehicle delivery volumes of 1.81 million vehicles, the company would have to deliver more than 520,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, which is more than what Wall Street analysts expect.Consensus estimates on Wall Street are tracking at about 500,000 vehicle deliveries in the fourth quarter, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said.Meanwhile, the most vehicles Tesla has ever delivered in a quarter is 484,507, which occurred in the fourth quarter of 2023.Brinkman believes Tesla's potential inability to grow vehicle deliveries this year, which CEO Elon Musk has previously said should grow at an annual rate of 50% for the long term, could cause investors "to pay more attention to the growing gap between fundamentals and valuation."And even with its $130 price target, Brinkman believes that's a generous valuation for the automaker."Despite implying material downside risk, we feel our valuation analysis, nevertheless, generously values Tesla as the world's most valuable automaker, given it is suggestive of a ~$400 market capitalization vs. Toyota $290 bn despite considerably less earnings and cash flow and given the company's stalled automotive growth over the past two years makes it harder to embrace the hyper growth story," Brinkman concluded.Of course, while Brinkman has been a longtime Tesla bear, the bulls view it as less of a traditional automaker and more of a technology company.Tesla is set to host an event on October 10 to showcase its robotaxi plans. Meanwhile, Tesla bull Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley has speculated that Tesla can grow its valuation by selling its own phone and even drones."Is it just me, or are you seeing more 'breadcrumbs' from Tesla's CEO that could potentially connect Tesla with aviation?" Jonas asked in a note earlier this week.This differing view among analysts — over whether Tesla is an automaker or a tech company — explains the widening gulf between price targets among the bears and the bulls. Jonas has a $310 price target for Tesla stock, more than double Brinkman's $130 target.

JPMorgan just raised its price target for Tesla — but it still expects a 48% crash in the stock

Private sector lender <keyword id="19952948" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Axis-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Axis Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Axis Bank">Axis Bank</keyword> on Wednesday reported a net profit of Rs 7,129 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2024. The bank had reported a net loss of Rs 5,728 crore in the March quarter of 2022-23 fiscal. Total income rose to Rs 35,990 crore in the March quarter of 2023-24 fiscal, from Rs 28,758 crore in the year-ago period. The bank's Net Interest Income (NII) grew 11 per cent Year-on-Year (YoY) to Rs 13,089 crore. For 2023-24 fiscal, the net profit jumped 160 per cent to Rs 24,861 crore. The numbers for the March quarter of 2022-23 fiscal and the full fiscal include the impact of exceptional items relating to the <keyword id="19941660" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="citibank" source="keywords">Citibank</keyword> business acquisition, Axis Bank said. Its balance sheet grew 12 per cent YoY to Rs 14,77,209 crore as on March 31, 2024. The bank issued 1.24 million new credit cards in the March quarter of FY24 and has been one of the highest credit card issuers in the country over the last nine quarters, Axis Bank said in a regulatory filing. The bank's board has recommended a dividend of Re 1 per equity share of the face value of Rs 2 per equity share for FY24. Shares of Axis Bank settled at Rs 1,063.70 apiece, up 0.69 per cent over the previous close on the BSE. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/realme-narzo-70-narzo-70x-5g-smartphones-launched-in-india-starting-at-11999/articleshow/109557895.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/realme-narzo-70-narzo-70x-5g-smartphones-launched-in-india-starting-at-11999/articleshow/109557895.cms" target="_blank">Realme Narzo 70, Narzo 70X 5G smartphones launched in India starting at ₹11,999</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/gigabyte-aorus-co49dq-49-inch-qd-oled-144hz-curved-gaming-monitor-launched-in-india/articleshow/109563798.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/gigabyte-aorus-co49dq-49-inch-qd-oled-144hz-curved-gaming-monitor-launched-in-india/articleshow/109563798.cms" target="_blank">GIGABYTE AORUS CO49DQ 49-inch QD-OLED 144Hz curved gaming monitor launched in India</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/apple-let-loose-event-scheduled-for-may-7-ipads-expected-to-be-launched/articleshow/109553148.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/apple-let-loose-event-scheduled-for-may-7-ipads-expected-to-be-launched/articleshow/109553148.cms" target="_blank">Apple Let Loose event scheduled for May 7 – New iPad models expected to be launched</a>

Axis Bank posts net profit of ₹7,129 cr in March quarter

New Delhi: While the <keyword id="20199673" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="moderation" source="keywords">moderation</keyword> in <keyword id="20468215" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CPI" source="keywords">CPI</keyword> <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> is a welcome development, experts caution that the road ahead could be bumpy. The sequential momentum in <keyword id="19960157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-prices" source="keywords">food prices</keyword> remains strong, with a 2.5 per cent month-on-month increase in prices, higher than the average sequential growth, indicating that inflationary pressures may persist. The uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall and the potential for excess rainfall in the coming months pose additional risks to food prices. RajSinha, Chief Economist at CareEdge, noted, "Despite the moderation in the inflation of the food and beverage basket when compared to last year, the sequential momentum remains strong, with a 2.5 per cent M-o-M increase in prices, higher than an average sequential grow." Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist at CRISIL, highlighted the impact of the high-base effect, stating, While the high-base effect -- along with sequential monthly movements -- was supportive of food inflation, it had an adverse bearing on core inflation. The big worry now is food prices continue to be elevated with the on-month rise slightly higher than usual for July. "The good part is monsoon and sowing have been progressing well and the expectation is that the arrival of fresh supplies in the market should over the next few months curb the food price rise. Overall, though, we expect inflation to ease and average 4.5 per cent this fiscal mostly due to softer food prices. This should allow the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> to begin cutting earliest by October", Joshi added. Raghvendra Nath, Managing Director of Ladderup Wealth Management, expressed optimism regarding the CPI data, stating, "This decline is primarily attributed to a reduction in the Consumer Food Price Index, which fell from 9.36 per cent in June to 5.42 per cent in July. This improvement should offer reassurance to the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI), which has indicated that <keyword id="19920341" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rate-cuts" source="keywords">rate cuts</keyword> will occur only when inflation sustainably aligns with its 4 per cent target. He added, "Positive expectations for the monsoon and adequate buffer stocks support the continued downward trend of CPI. However, any substantial rise in crude oil prices due to the ongoing geopolitical crisis could adversely affect inflation and the broader economy." Sanjeev Agrawal, President of the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, also commended the decline in CPI inflation, stating, "It is highly appreciable that the CPI inflation has exhibited a decline in the year-on-year inflation rate at 3.5 per cent for the month of July 2024 from 5.08 per cent in June 2024." He added, "The food and beverages inflation eased sharply from 8.4 per cent in June 2024 to 5.06 per cent in July 2024 and fuel and light inflation from -3.7 per cent in June 2024 to -5.4 per cent in July 2024, are the main drivers of the softening inflation trajectory." India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased significantly to 3.54 per cent in July 2024, marking its lowest level in nearly five years and a sharp drop from 5.08 per cent in June. This decline, which brought inflation below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium-term target of 4 per cent for the first time since 2019, has been largely attributed to a favourable base effect and a dramatic reduction in <keyword id="20621131" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vegetable-prices" source="keywords">vegetable prices</keyword>. The primary driver behind this sharp moderation was the steep fall in vegetable inflation, which plummeted from 29.3 per cent in June to 6.8 per cent in July. The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) also saw a significant reduction, falling from 9.36 per cent in June to 5.42 per cent in July, contributing to the overall easing of CPI inflation. (ANI)

Experts welcome moderation of inflation in July, by warns of continued inflationary pressure ahead

New Delhi: The ongoing volatility in the prices of key food items such as tomatoes, onions, and potatoes (collectively known as TOP) and pulses continues to pose significant challenges for the <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policy-committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC) of the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>), highlights a report by <keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>. "Current volatility in prices of TOP and pulses continues to challenge the MPC, keeping the headline above target at 5.1 per cent in June 2024," said the report. The report highlighted that this instability in <keyword id="19960157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-prices" source="keywords">food prices</keyword> has kept the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> above the targeted level, reaching 5.1 per cent in June 2024. While the inflationary pressures remain a concern, the report stated that there is hope on the horizon due to the currently above-normal <keyword id="19968257" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon" source="keywords">monsoon</keyword> and increased sowing activity, which are further supported by the potential onset of a La Nina event later in the year. "The currently above-normal monsoon and sowing, backed up by a potential La Nina event later, promise reprieve in later quarters," said the report. Importantly, the report added that it is now expected that the CPI will remain above the RBI's medium-term target of 4 per cent in all quarters up until the first quarter of FY26. This persistent overshoot highlights the ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy. "Notably, now the CPI is expected to be above RBI's target of 4 per cent in all quarters till Q1FY26," the report added. However, the report noted that the Monetary Policy Committee expects a moderation in inflation during the fourth quarter, which is anticipated to help keep the overall CPI projection for FY24 unchanged at 4.5 per cent. The SBI report also believes that the volatility in food prices, driven by uneven spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon rains, presents an upside risk to the current inflation projections. As a result, SBI maintains its CPI estimate for FY25 at 4.7 per cent year-on-year. In the latest MPC meeting on Wednesday, RBI Governor <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> said inflation will moderate from July onwards as the monsoon has improved and global food prices have shown signs of easing in July. Das said, "Global food prices showed signs of easing in the month of July after registering an increase since March 2024." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. Das added, "Assuming a normal monsoon and taking into account the 4.9 per cent inflation print, Q1 CPI inflation for the current financial year (2024-25) is projected at 4.5 per cent, with q2 at 4.4 per cent, Q3 at 4.7 per cent and Q4 at 4.3 per cent. CPI inflation for the first quarter of next financial year (Q1 2025-26) is projected at 4.4 per cent."

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