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New Delhi: Steel companies in the country are likely to face margin pressure in the third quarter of FY25 as muted steel prices compress spreads, according to a report by Axis Securities. The report stated that the weak demand in China and higher exports from the country have been identified as key factors behind the decline in steel prices. The report highlighted that <keyword id="24048830" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chinese-steel-exports" source="keywords">Chinese steel exports</keyword> reached 92 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) between January and October 2024, marking a 22 per cent year-on-year increase. This has led to an oversupply in the global market, weighing down prices domestically. It said "Weak Chinese domestic demand along with higher Chinese exports has led to a decline in steel prices in India. Chinese steel exports from Jan'24 to Oct'24 stood at 92 MTPA, up 22 per cent YoY" In India, the average price of hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel in the trader's market in Mumbai fell by 8 per cent year-on-year and 6 per cent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 51,802 per tonne in the second quarter of FY25. Spot prices have further declined to Rs 49,000 per tonne, 5 per cent lower than the Q2FY25 average. The report also noted some signs of recovery in China's residential property sector, with increased transactions in major cities following policy measures aimed at boosting demand. However, challenges remain, as the three-month moving average of year-to-date floor space declined by 19 per cent year-on-year in September 2024, remaining in negative territory. It said "China's residential property sector is showing some signs of improvement with the transactions in major cities rising after recent policy measures introduced to boost demand". On the global front, the report noted that the probability of a 25-basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in its December 2024 meeting has fallen to 58.9 per cent, down from 76.8 per cent in October 2024, owing to strong economic data from the US. Additionally, China has removed a 13 per cent export rebate on aluminum and copper, effective December 1, 2024, in response to anticipated tariff measures by the new US administration. These developments highlight the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the global and domestic steel and metals markets.

Falling steel prices amid Chinese export surge, to reduce profits of companies in Q3 FY25: Report

Over the past few months, there’s been a lot of brouhaha about the lagging pace of bank deposits in India. Simply put, the rate at which Indians are depositing their hard-earned money in banks has been falling constantly, and some blame the increasing financialization of household savings in the country, or the rising preference of Indians towards mutual funds and shares. So, the hypothesis is that people are choosing to invest more in mutual funds and the Indian equity markets through direct investments, IPOs, or NFOs, the money flowing into Indian banks in the form of deposits is slowing down. But is that really the case? <h2>A crisis or a phase?</h2><keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> data suggested that for the quarter ended June 2024, bank deposits grew at 11.7%. On the other hand, credit growth has outpaced this at 15%. This means that the outflow from banks as loans is far greater than the inflow into them in the form of deposits in Q1 of FY 2024-25. The situation largely saw cut-copy-paste in the first week of September as well, with loans registering a 13.3% YoY growth during the period, while deposits rose only 11.1%. This gap has only been widening for the last 3 years. Since deposits are how banks gather assets to further lend and earn interest income as a consequence, even a slight dip could set the alarm bells ringing for banks, and rightfully so. And truth be told, mutual funds are indeed taking on bank deposits in a big way. Per a report by <keyword id="20250971" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="franklin-templeton" source="keywords">Franklin Templeton</keyword>, in August 2024, the AUM (assets under management) of Indian mutual funds, or the total funds managed by them, stood at 31.3% of total bank deposits in the country, up from 24.20% during the year-ago period. As of August 2024, the AUM of mutual funds stood at Rs 66.17 lakh crore, an all-time high. But all said and done, is this really the reason why the rate of bank deposits is falling behind? SBI has dismissed this to be a “statistical myth”, and experts point out that since equity and fund houses also keep the cash in their respective bank accounts, there’s no cause for concern. So, is financialization really to be blamed for the trailing tempo of deposits? Or is something else happening behind the scenes? We take a closer look: <h2>First, are <keyword id="4000333" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="household-deposits" source="Orion">household deposits</keyword> really slowing down? And is that a cause of concern?</h2>Data from Motilal Oswal suggests the contrary. Deposits grew by around 10.4% between March 2020 and August 2024. Data from RBI also highlights that as of August 9, 2024, bank deposits witnessed a YoY growth of 10.8%. The loan-to-deposit ratio for the retail segment, which indicates what percentage of its total deposits the banks lend out as loans, has stayed at 77.5%, above the 77% mark for the tenth straight month. Also, we can’t forego the fact that the share of Indian <keyword id="20319599" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="households" source="keywords">households</keyword> in bank deposits has indeed slowed down. However, data from Axis AMC shows that the dip is marginal—from 63% in 2022 to 62% in 2023 and 61% in 2024. What has slowed down even more considerably is the share of government deposits in the aggregate bank deposits, which has dipped from 14% in 2018 to 9% in 2024. So, it's not just household deposits, you see. Moreover, as of March 2024, the collective CASA ratio (current and savings account deposits) of all commercial banks in India stood at 41.00%, down from 43.1% in March 2023 and 45.2% in March 2022, marking a nearly 5% point decline over the past year, while still staying over the 10-year average of 39.2%. This implies that Indian banks are relying more on higher-cost funds (savings accounts), which can limit their profitability. <h2>What is this financialisation of savings we are talking about?</h2>Then again, there is no doubt about the growing affinity of Indians towards mutual funds and stock markets. Recent data from CBDT (<keyword id="19942037" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="central-board-of-direct-taxes" source="keywords">Central Board of Direct Taxes</keyword>) highlights that India’s net direct tax collection surged by around 22%, driven exclusively by the significant uptick in the collection of <keyword id="20930760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="securities-transaction-tax" source="keywords">Securities Transaction Tax</keyword> (STT), which doubled to Rs 26,154 crore, from Rs 13,352 crore in the year-ago period. Why does this matter? STT is levied when you buy or sell equity shares on stock exchanges, sell equity mutual funds, and trade in futures and options in the equity segment. Such taxes, including the multiple other taxes in equity market investments, are considered as leakages as the money moves out of the economy into government coffers. Data from a ValueQuest report explains that over the last 20 years, the markets have handsomely rewarded the investors, generating over $900 billion in incremental value for them. This is the major driver behind the dramatic rise in investment flowing towards the equity markets. There’s further proof of this budding romance, if you check the demat pudding. The number of demat accounts, which are a primary requisite for participating in the stock markets, also burgeoned by 42.3 lakh in August 2024, taking India’s total tally of demat accounts beyond 17 crore. To put this in perspective, this is almost equivalent to the population of just 8 nations in the world, including China, the US, Brazil and more. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat thinks it's rather important, as well. “Financialisation of household savings in India is an indication of deepening capital markets in the market, especially from a retail investor standpoint. Bank deposits with a modest rate of return are no longer the only option for savings for investors. Investors today have more avenues for wealth creation in the form of public capital markets, which have democratized wealth creation and provided equality of opportunity to retail investors”, he says. Yes, Indians are investing more and more in the markets, and in mutual funds. But is it a sin to look out for inflation-beating returns, which the stock markets offer, and vanilla bank deposits don't? After all, the allure of 12-13% annual returns offered by equities can certainly pale the stability offered by good old deposits, which generally do not go beyond 9% when it comes to annual returns. But all of this is not what is behind the slowdown. India is still a toddler in the school of savings financialization, with less than 10% of the population holding a demat account, and less than 5% of us saving in equities. That's a drop in the ocean of deposits, far inadequate to trigger a tsunami. <h2>Tell me why lagging deposits have nothing to do with Indians investing more in mutual funds!</h2>Says Shweta Rajani, Head - Mutual Funds, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, “Households' equity holdings composition grew from 11.1% in FY 23 to 14.7% in FY 24. This trend reflects a growing awareness of investment options, empowering individuals to take control of their financial futures. Despite this transition towards equities, banks still hold a significant share of household financial savings—33.5% in FY24 compared to 34.9% in FY23”. Also, household savings and their subsequent financialization do not have much to do with deposit creation, which is entirely made by banks. What actually drives increased deposits is credit growth or increased lending. When interest rates are eased, people tend to borrow more and spend more, which circulates more money in the economy. For the past 4 years, RBI has been tightening the screws on interest rates, which raises the cost of borrowings, and makes it more expensive to take loans, putting a dampener on credit growth, but effectively curbing inflationary pressures. The last time RBI cut the repo rate by 40 basis points was back in May 2020, 4 years ago. The lag in deposit growth we’re witnessing is almost 3 years old. Coincidence much, or just good old economics at work? But with the <keyword id="19900043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fed" source="keywords">Fed</keyword> recently setting a rate cut precedent by slashing 50 bps off its interest rate, RBI is expected to follow suit in the next <keyword id="19918491" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mpc" source="keywords">MPC</keyword> (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting, scheduled for November 2024. A rate cut would ease the aforementioned high cost of borrowing, and increase loan-taking for corporates and institutional investors, thereby stoking consumption in the economy. And then, deposit creation in banks is likely to return to its former glory. If not, then that would be a curious case to unravel! But that worry is for another day.

A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="11935793" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="north-korea" source="Orion">North Korea</keyword>'s huge <keyword id="11538186" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="crypto-hack" source="Orion">crypto hack</keyword> marks a new era in cybersecurity threats. </li><li>"If there was ever a doubt that hacks were not tied to <keyword id="11922549" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="national-security" source="Orion">national security</keyword>, that's been resolved," a <keyword id="11902216" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="blockchain" source="Orion">blockchain</keyword> expert told Insider. </li></ul>US authorities this week tied North Korean hackers to the historic $625 million <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/axie-infinity-hack-ronin-network-crypto-adoption-eth-blockchain-2022-4">Axie Infinity crypto swindle</a>, with the massive hack signifying the emergence of a new type of national security threat, according to a blockchain expert.On Thursday, the US Treasury Department added an Ethereum wallet address to its sanction list after the wallet facilitated transfers for more than $86 million of the stolen funds.The hacking outfits Lazarus and APT38, both linked to North Korea, were behind the theft, the FBI said in a statement, and the funds are generating revenue for Kim Jong Un's regime.Ari Redbord, head of legal and government affairs at blockchain research firm <a href="https://www.trmlabs.com/">TRM</a>, says the attack shows that even a nation as isolated as North Korea can participate in new-age cyber-warfare."Over the last few years many hacks have been perpetrated by North Korea," Redbord told Insider. "But the magnitude of <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/crypto-hack-ronin-network-heist-cybercrime-cryptocurrency-axie-infinity-polynetwork-2022-3?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">this one</a> shows things have moved from small exploits to true national security concerns. It's staggering — bank robbery at the speed of the internet." For years, North Korean actors have been responsible for cyberattacks, including a high-profile hit against <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/north-korean-regime-backed-programmer-charged-conspiracy-conduct-multiple-cyber-attacks-and">Sony</a> in 2014. But groups like Lazarus have grown increasingly sophisticated and ambitious. Meanwhile, businesses within the nascent <keyword id="11893898" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="crypto" source="Orion">crypto</keyword> sector are still finding their footing when it comes to cybersecurity, which makes them vulnerable to hacking groups which are continuously honing their tactics. "North Korea realized a hack against an online retailer was one thing, but going after crypto exchanges is a more effective way to fund destabilizing activity at a very low cost to them," Redbord said. The country was an early adopter of <keyword id="11892695" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="cryptocurrency" source="Orion">cryptocurrency</keyword> money laundering, he added, and there's no sign it's bad actors will slow their efforts since it's proven to be extremely profitable. What's more, Redbord noted that social engineering attacks, such as the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/axie-infinity-hack-ronin-network-crypto-adoption-eth-blockchain-2022-4">Axie Infinity infiltration</a>, are becoming more advanced. These hacks aren't a consequence of simple, mass-phishing emails, he explained, but nuanced and targeted strikes on specific individuals. <h3>The new digital battlefield</h3>While North Korea has an extremely small economy and limited infrastructure, it has proven it can participate in cyber-warfare at a scale similar to global superpowers like the US and China. The <keyword id="11971138" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="axie-infinity" source="Orion">Axie Infinity</keyword> hack in particular reinforced Redbord's belief that the scale of digital attacks are climbing at such a rate that a new type of warfare is emerging. "Over the last year or so, we've moved from a post 9/11 world into a new digital battlefield," Redbord said. "Nation-state actors know to go after crypto businesses to fund real weapon proliferation, it's not just some hackers trying to fund a lifestyle."North Korea's use of the group Lazarus confirms that the country's isolated status and lack of modern infrastructure doesn't hold it back from participating in cyber warfare on the world stage, Redbord explained.The cryptocurrency industry is an excellent target for these attacks because of the volume of transactions and funds being moved every day, but also because the businesses aren't fully mature and may still be developing their own cyber security protocols. Unfortunately, this means many firms often do not have the most up to date security measures in place, Redbord said. "It comes down to hardening cyber defenses. We're still in a world where these companies are learning how to protect themselves, and now we've seen that a small group is responsible for crypto's largest hack." he said. "If there was ever a doubt that hacks were not tied to national security, that's been resolved."

A blockchain expert explains how North Korea's $625 million crypto hack presents a new national security threat — and why it marks a shift in the global 'digital battlefield'

You Searched For "Axis Securities" and got 3 results

Falling steel prices amid Chinese export surge, to reduce profits of companies in Q3 FY25: Report

ANI

A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

Ira Alok Puranik

A blockchain expert explains how North Korea's $625 million crypto hack presents a new national security threat — and why it marks a shift in the global 'digital battlefield'

Phil Rosen

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