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<ul class="summary-list"><li>US inflation saw some moderation in April.</li><li>The Consumer Price Index increased 3.4% year over year in April, just below March's rise of 3.5%.</li></ul>Inflation in the US is still above 3%, new <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bls.gov/cpi/">Consumer Price Index</a> data released on Wednesday suggested, but cooled off slightly in April.The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/consumer-price-index">Consumer Price Index</a> or CPI, an inflation measure, climbed 3.4% from April 2023 to this past April. That's the same as the 3.4% <a target="_blank" href="https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733">forecast</a> stated on Investing.com and below <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-food-energy-gas-prices-consumer-price-index-2024-4">March's year-over-year increase</a> of 3.5%.The CPI increased month-over-month between March and this past April, but a smaller increase than in March. It rose by 0.3% in April after it rose 0.4% in March. Analysts expected the month-over-month change to be a 0.4% increase.Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed 3.6% year over year in April, matching the forecast. The previous year-over-year growth was 3.8% in March."With the 3.4% year-over-year headline increase and 3.6% in the core (excluding food and energy), these remain irritatingly high," Mark Hamrick, Bankrate senior economic analyst, said in a statement. "The status of the battle against inflation requires that interest rates remain elevated in the near-term."Core CPI increased by 0.3% from March to April, per the news release from the BLS. That follows March's increase of 0.4%. A slight moderation seemed to have been expected — the forecast was 0.3%."We still believe a broad disinflationary trend remains in place and five key elements should bring more disinflation throughout 2024: mildly softer consumer spending growth as evidenced by the goose egg retail sales print in April, moderating wage growth and slower job growth, declining rent inflation, narrower profit margins, and stronger productivity growth," EY chief economist Gregory Daco said in written commentary.Food away from home prices increased 4.1% for the 12 months ending April, which is just below the 4.2% increase in March. Meanwhile, food at home prices climbed 1.1% year over year in April, a small moderation from the 1.2% year-over-year increase in March."The index for shelter rose in April, as did the index for gasoline," Wednesday's news release from the BLS stated. "Combined, these two indexes contributed over seventy percent of the monthly increase in the index for all items."The shelter index increased 0.4% from March to April, matching the month-over-month growth rates seen in February and March. Looking at year-over-year unadjusted changes, shelter <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SAH1#0">continues to cool down</a>. It rose 5.5% year-over-year this past April compared to the 5.7% increase for the 12 months ending March and also the 12 months ending February.Gas prices surged 1.2% year over year in April — similar to the 1.3% rise in March. Plus, they rose 2.8% month over month in April, above March's 1.7% increase. The energy index increased 2.6% year over year in April. It rose 1.1% in April from the previous month, the same monthly rate as in March.Additionally, a news release from the BLS on Tuesday showed the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bls.gov/ppi/home.htm">Producer Price Index</a> for final demand increased 0.5% month over month in April after a decline of 0.1%. An increase was expected though for April's month-over-month change; the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-238">forecast</a> stated on Investing.com was 0.3%."The higher than expected increase in the monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) is not good news for markets and the Federal Reserve," Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James' chief economist, said in an economic note. "However, revisions to previous months' data brought the year-over-year PPI in line with expectations."Despite CPI still remaining stubbornly high, wage growth is still outpacing inflation. April's <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003">average hourly earnings</a> for private workers rose 3.9% in April from a year ago, higher than the 3.4% CPI growth rate.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said at a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ulOCkTfRHI">press conference</a> on May 1, "we, like everyone else, like to see high wages, but we also want to see them not eaten up by high inflation.""And that's really what we're trying to do, is to cool the economy and work with what's happening on the supply side to bring the economy back to 2% inflation," Powell added. "Part of that will probably be having wage increases move down incrementally toward levels that are more sustainable."

Inflation slightly cooled off in April as expected

Economists at the country's largest lender, SBI, today said they see India's Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5% in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and whether it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7%. SBI analysts join a long line of agencies like Fitch, ADB, IMF, Moody, World Bank, S&amp;P, and even RBI in forecasting India's GDP growth for FY25 in the range of 6.8% to 7.2% for FY25, driven by robust consumption and investment. SIP inflows have been at an all-time high, and so has QIP (qualified institutional placement) fundraising. As many as 71 companies raised Rs 88,678 crore this year through QIPs. Activity in Indian primary markets also remained robust, with 78 mainboard IPOs in 2024; this is a 111% rise from just 38 listings in FY23. Between April and June 2024, India's real GDP grew by 6.7%, the lowest growth seen in 15 quarters, pushing experts to believe that India is caught in a cycle of slowdown. "There is some incipient pressure evident on the domestic economy. Based on our analysis of 50 meaningful leading indicators (both consumption and demand-centric), a dip looks plausible across select cohorts of agriculture, industry, and services in Q2," the <keyword id="22337294" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-economists" source="keywords">SBI economists</keyword> added. Stating that they track 50 indicators to gauge economic activity, SBIs note said the proportion of indicators showing acceleration declined to 69% in Q2 FY25, as against 80% in Q2 FY24 and 78% in Q1 FY25. However, things might be changing now, given that rural demand has started looking up amidst muted urban demand. SBI also explained that the ongoing regulatory tightening on unsecured lending and roadblocks that are hindering rollover/refinancing of debt through unsecured credit are dismantling the unwarranted exuberance that had built up post-pandemic, especially in the urban areas. Madhu Lunawat, CIO &amp; Fund Manager, Bharat Value Fund states that the overall investment environment remains strong due to favorable economic conditions supporting government policies &amp; reforms. "The sustainable inflow from domestic investors is going to support the Indian equity market in any kind of correction. The long-term bullish structure of Indian economy will continue to attract new domestic &amp; global investors to participate in India’s growth story through various Investment avenues.” <h2>Rate cuts not on cards</h2>RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das clarified today that changing the monetary policy stance to 'neutral' does not mean a rate cut is imminent in the central bank's next policy announcement. Notably, RBI MPC is set to meet between December 4 and 6, 2024, to decide if the prevailing repo rate of 6.5%, which has stayed unchanged for the last 2 years, should be brought down or not. In its last meeting, The <keyword id="20501100" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-monetary-policy" source="keywords">RBI monetary policy</keyword> committee had shifted its stance to 'neutral' indicating that it is open to adjusting interest rates based on economic conditions. "It should not be assumed that we have done this, so therefore the next step is a rate cut. A change in stance doesn't mean that the next step is a rate cut in the very next meeting. It's not so," Das said. Das also cautioned that inflation remains a key factor, and inflation and CPI prints for October are expected to stay high.

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks gained as investors adjust their portfolios to a second Trump presidency.</li><li>Investors will turn their attention to inflation this week, with October CPI set to be released on Wednesday.</li></ul>US stocks gained on Monday, extending the postelection rally as investors adjust their portfolios to prepare for a second Donald Trump presidency.Everything from bitcoin to Tesla to the US dollar rallied Monday morning. The world's largest cryptocurrency hit an all-time high above $82,000 as investors continued to celebrate Trump's win, which the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-crypto-industry-donald-trump-election-reserve-regulation-sec-2024-11">market expects to be a positive</a> catalyst for crypto. Tesla stock rose over 8% to about $348.50. The stock reclaimed a $1 trillion market cap at the end of last week for the first time since April 2022. Tech analyst Dan Ives said in a note Monday morning that the Trump win was a "game changer," and raised his price target to $400 a share. Investors' top concern this week is inflation data, with consumer price index data for the month of October set to be released Wednesday morning.Economists expect a 2.5% year-over-year jump in CPI, compared to a rise of 2.4% in the prior month.Investors will get more inflation data on Thursday when the producer price index is released. Economists expect it to rise 0.2% month over month compared to a flat reading in September.In addition to inflation data, corporate earnings remain on investors' radars, though they are starting to wind down.So far, 91% of S&amp;P 500 companies have reported third-quarter results. Of those companies, 77% beat profit estimates by a median of 6%, while 59% beat revenue estimates by a median of 6%, according to data from Fundstrat.Nvidia is the last big company that will report earnings The chip giant is scheduled to report its third-quarter results after the market close on November 20.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 6,015.56, up 0.33%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 44,384.62, up 0.90% (+395.63 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,339.95, up 0.28%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-high-inflation-risk-tariffs-deportations-taxes-2024-11">Economists say Trump could give Americans the very thing they voted against.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-reaches-80000-for-first-time-trump-election-crypto-2024-11">Bitcoin surged past the $80,000 price level over the weekend and hit a high of $82,500.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/retirement-saving-inflation-cost-of-living-crisis-investing-401k-pensions-2024-11">Americans' cost-of-living anxiety is creating a population of oversavers.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil declined 2.76% to $68.44 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 2.52% to $72.01 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> dropped 2.07% to $2,639.00 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was flat at 4.310%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> gained 1.80% to $81,875.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes jump as post-election rally continues ahead of inflation data

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks rose as traders took in slightly cooler inflation figures.</li><li>Consumer prices rose 3.4% year-per-year in April, down from the prior month's 3.5% increase.</li></ul>US stocks jumped on Wednesday as traders took in the latest inflation report, which showed prices cooled slightly in April. Major averages gained while bond yields tumbled. The 10-year Treasury fell seven basis points to 4.369%. Consumer prices rose 0.3% last month, cooler than the 0.4% expected. Year-over-year, prices grew 3.4% in April, cooler than the prior month's 3.5% annual increase.Falling inflation has fueled some hope the Fed is set to issue several interest rate cuts this year, which is bullish for stocks. But investors have mostly accepted that rates will stay higher for longer, with <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">markets anticipating one to three rate cuts</a> by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool."The first downside surprise in inflation since the turn of the year will be a relief to the niggling concerns that inflation was starting to trend upwards again. It will inevitably be well received by the market given that it puts 2024 Fed cuts back on the table," Seema Shah, the chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management said in a note on Wednesday.Still, the Fed is largely expected to keep interest rates level at its next policy meeting. Traders see a 92% chance rates will stay between 5.25%-5.5% in June. "It does keep the Fed in a holding pattern, with no rate cuts until September at the earliest and a rate hike looking even less likely," Sonu Varghese, a global macro strategist at Carson Group said on the latest inflation figures.Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,278.01, up 0.6%</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 39,782.29, up 0.57% (+224.18 points)</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 16,612.24, up 0.61%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-pomboy-consumer-spending-savings-debt-inflation-interest-rates-recession-2024-5">People are raiding their savings and racking up debt</a>, an expert warns.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-steve-hanke-berkshire-hathaway-cash-pile-stocks-recession-2024-5">Warren Buffett is hoarding $200 billion</a> as he may see 'storm clouds' ahead, top economist Steve Hanke says.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-flashes-bullish-signal-suggesting-record-highs-this-summer-2024-5">The S&amp;P 500 has flashed a bullish indicator</a> pointing to record highs this summer. </li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped 0.91% to $77.31 a barrel. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, dropped 0.95% to $81.61 a barrel. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> climbed 0.49% to $2,369 per ounce. </li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield dropped seven basis points to 4.369%. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> jumped 4% to $64,496. </li></ul>

Stock market today: Stocks jump on cooler April inflation report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks edged higher on Monday, with the S&amp;P 500 nearly testing its all-time high.</li><li>Investors have a big week ahead for economic data, including April CPI and retail sales results.</li></ul>US stocks edged higher on Monday ahead of a busy week of economic data that could shake stock prices.The S&amp;P 500 was within striking distance of its all-time high Monday morning, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is trying for its ninth consecutive day of gains.The most anticipated report for investors this week is Wednesday's release of the April consumer price index report. The inflation data will help investors determine when the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates this year. Investors are expecting Core CPI to rise 0.3% in April, compared to the 0.4% gain in March.Ahead of consumer inflation data, the producer price index will be released on Tuesday, with median estimates suggesting a 0.2% rise in April. Other economic data on investors' radar this week includes retail sales data, set to be released Wednesday morning, the home builder confidence index, housing starts and building permits, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey.Finally, investors will hear comments from several Federal Reserve officials, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Wednesday.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Monday: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,233.43, up 0.21%</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 39,598.34, up 0.22% (+85.50 points)</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 16,383.41, up 0.28%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-predictions-recession-soon-inflation-corporate-profits-decline-2024-5">From a 65% stock market crash to an imminent recession,</a> here's a roundup of all the bearish forecasts on Wall Street.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-stock-market-crash-inflation-debt-jobs-economic-collapse-reddit-2024-5">It's not just Wall Street pros that expect a stock market crash.</a> Meet the retail doomsayers waiting for the economy to crash. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/gamestop-meme-stocks-keith-gill-roaring-kitty-wall-street-bets-2024-5">The return of Roaring Kitty on social media has led to GameStop stock soaring more than 50%</a> in Monday morning trades.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil jumped 0.74% to $78.84 a barrel. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, rose 0.59% to $83.28 a barrel. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> edged lower by 0.87% to $2,354.30 per ounce. </li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 4.46%. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> jumped 2.26% to $62,850. </li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks rise ahead of a big week with April inflation on deck

In April, the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) governor Shaktikanta Das referred to <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> as the ‘elephant in the room’. He said, “The elephant has now gone out for a walk and appears to be returning to the forest. We would like the elephant to return to the forest and remain there on a durable basis… Elephant moves slowly, and last mile inflation tends to be sticky.” On Friday, the Indian government data showed that the year-on-year inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (<keyword id="20468215" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CPI" source="keywords">CPI</keyword>) for June 2024 stood at 5.08 per cent — rising from 4.75% last month. This was the first time the headline inflation had risen since December 2023! Looks like the elephant decided to stop and look back on its way to the forest. The question remains, what’s next — will it return to the forest or return to the room to haunt us again? <h2>Food price inflation at a record high</h2> The major driver for the higher inflation figures this month has been the rising <keyword id="19960157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-prices" source="keywords">food prices</keyword> across India. In fact, food price inflation almost doubled year-on-year in June, rising to 8.36 per cent last month compared to 4.63 per cent in June 2023. Inflation in the food basket was 9.36 per cent in June, up from 8.69 per cent in May, according to the data of the National Statistical Office (NSO). Government data showed that <keyword id="513422" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="Orion">retail inflation</keyword> for all food segments, including cereal, meat, eggs, milk, oils, fruits, vegetables, pulses, sugar, spices, prepared snacks, and sweets, increased month-on-month. This was the main cause for retail inflation hardening in June, diverging from the previous months' moderation. While the inflation rate based on the all-India CPI for June 2024 stood at 5.08%, rural and urban inflation rates also spiked to 5.66 per cent and 4.39 per cent, respectively. “Barring the food basket, inflation is indicating signs of bottoming out broadly across the non-food categories, also seen in the inflation in the core categories averaging at 3.5% in the last six months. A stable monsoon will play an important role in stabilising food prices and inflation levels over the next few months,” said Vivek Rathi, National Director Research, Knight Frank India. In May, annual retail inflation was at a 12-month low of 4.75%, slightly down from April's 4.83%. In December last year, retail inflation stood at 5.7 % and had been moderating until June. On the other hand, the US CPI rose only 3% on an annual basis in June versus expectations of 3.2%. Month-over-month, the US CPI declined 0.1%, on expectations for a 0.1% rise. <h2>There goes the chance of an early rate cut?</h2> While European central banks started to cut interest rates last month, hopes of such policy moves seem to have been derailed by these inflation figures. Indian central bank, RBI, has remained cautiously focused on inflation as the growth prospects remained robust. It has been waiting for the final phase of disinflation to materialise before considering rate cuts. The situation, however, does seem rather peculiar — as long as inflation does not align with the central bank's 4% target, the interest rates may remain rather high. However, the current economic environment is not gloomy at all, characterized by a robust GDP growth rate, estimated at 8.2% for 2023-24. Hence, the RBI adopts a wait-and-see approach. And the wait is likely to continue a little while longer. This year, food prices have become a significant issue for policymakers in India, and the RBI governor pinned his hopes on a good monsoon season to alleviate the food price inflation concerns. So far, the monsoon has stood up to our expectations, yet the food prices have remained stubbornly high, mainly due to extended heat wave conditions in June. "The CPI inflation came marginally higher than our expectations. While the <keyword id="67286" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="Orion">food inflation</keyword> risks will continue to dominate in the near term, we expect better sowing patterns and spatial distribution of rains to eventually ease the price pressures beyond these volatile months. Having said that, the central bank will be in no hurry to ease <keyword id="20104157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policy" source="keywords">monetary policy</keyword> given the headroom from robust growth in the backdrop of near-term inflation risks," said Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank. India's retail inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) comfort range of 2-6% but exceeds the ideal 4% scenario. While inflation is a global concern, India has so far managed its inflation trajectory relatively well. Since May 2022, the RBI has raised the repo rate by 250 basis points cumulatively to combat inflation. However, over the last eight policy cycles, the central bank has kept the rates consistent at 6.5%. The next monetary policy meeting of the RBI is scheduled for early August. And with the higher-than-expected inflation data, the central bank is likely to keep the rate unchanged next month as well for the ninth consecutive month. However, hopes are still alive for a rate cut towards the end of the year. "We are not ruling out a stance change in October 2024 and a 25 bps rate cut each in December 2024 and February 2025, followed by an extended pause, if the food inflation outlook turns decidedly favourable on the back of a normal magnitude and favourable distribution of rainfall in the rest of the monsoon season, and there are no other shocks, either global or domestic," said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA. (With inputs from ANI and PTI) <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="110784179" title="Monetary Policy Committee keeps repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, confirms RBI governor Shaktikanta Das" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"><payload><![CDATA[seealso]]></payload></div> <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="110788776" title="RBI retains inflation projection for FY25 at 4.5%" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"><payload><![CDATA[seealso]]></payload></div>

Inflation spikes in June 2024 due to high food prices; Likely to affect RBI’s decision on interest rate

The <keyword id="22906567" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Unified-Pension-Scheme" source="keywords">Unified Pension Scheme</keyword> (<keyword id="19904859" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="UPS" source="keywords">UPS</keyword>) is a newly introduced <keyword id="20146379" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pension" source="keywords">pension</keyword> system approved by the <keyword id="19909268" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-government" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Indian government" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Indian government">Indian government</keyword> aimed at providing guaranteed pensions, family pensions, and a minimum assured pension for central <keyword id="19933272" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-employees" source="keywords">government employees</keyword>. It is set to take effect from April 1, 2025. <h3>Who is eligible for the UPS?</h3>The scheme is applicable to central government employees who have completed a minimum of 10 years of service. It also reportedly offers a choice to current employees between the existing National Pension System (<keyword id="19919089" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NPS" source="keywords">NPS</keyword>) and the new UPS. This includes employees who are retired or retiring on or before 31 March 2025 with arrears. Once selected, the choice will reportedly be final for both current and future employees. <h3>What are the key benefits of the UPS?</h3><ul><li>Guaranteed Pension: Employees will receive a pension equivalent to 50% of their average basic salary from the last 12 months prior to <keyword id="19908343" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retirement" source="keywords">retirement</keyword>, provided they have completed at least 25 years of service. This is proportionately reduced for those with less than 25 years but more than 10 years of service.</li><li>Family Pension: In the event of the pensioner's death, the family is entitled to receive 60% of the pension amount that was being disbursed at the time of the pensioner's passing.</li><li>Minimum Pension: A guaranteed minimum monthly pension of Rs 10,000 is assured after retirement for those with at least 10 years of service.</li></ul><h3>How will the pension be adjusted for inflation?</h3>The UPS includes a provision for <keyword id="22911270" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation-adjustment" source="keywords">inflation adjustment</keyword> through Dearness Relief (DR), which is linked to the All India Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (AICPI-IW). This ensures that the pension, family pension, and minimum pension keep pace with inflation. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="112777109" title="GST Council meet: TMC&amp;#39;s O&amp;#39;Brien urges Sitharaman to withdraw 18 pc GST on insurance premiums" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>The government's contribution to the pension fund has been increased from 14% to 18.5% of the employee's salary. This is part of the government's commitment to ensuring the <keyword id="20615853" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-security" source="keywords">financial security</keyword> of its employees in retirement. In addition to the regular pension, employees will receive a lump-sum payment at the time of superannuation. This will be 1/10th of the monthly salary (including basic pay and Dearness Allowance) for every six months of completed service. <h3>How does the UPS compare with the NPS?</h3>The UPS offers a guaranteed pension and family pension, whereas the NPS is a contributory scheme where the final pension amount depends on the accumulated corpus and market performance. Employees under the UPS have the security of a fixed pension, while the NPS offers potentially higher returns but with associated risks. The central government has made the framework of the UPS available to state governments. If adopted, it could benefit around 90 lakh state government employees currently under the NPS. <h3>What is the broader impact of the UPS?</h3>As per current estimates, the implementation of the UPS is expected to cost the government an additional Rs 6,250 crore in its first year. The costs will be reassessed every three years to ensure sustainability. The introduction of the new pension scheme is potentially a significant step toward ensuring the financial security and dignity of government employees in their retirement years. It remains to be seen whether it will effectively address the growing demands for a more secure pension system and improve <keyword id="21935721" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="employee-welfare" source="keywords">employee welfare</keyword>.

Confused by the newly introduced Unified Pension Scheme? Here’s all you need to know about how it will work

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks soared on Wednesday, with the S&amp;P 500 notching an all-time high.</li><li>The benchmark index surpassed 5,300 for the first time after April inflation came in cooler than expected.</li></ul>US stocks surged on Wednesday, with the S&amp;P 500 breaking its all-time record as traders took in cooling inflation numbers.All three benchmark indexes rose, while bond yields ticked lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 350 points while the 10-year Treasury fell 10 basis points to 4.344%.The benchmark S&amp;P 500 rose past 5,300 for the first time ever as investors grow optimistic that the Federal Reserve is still on track to cut interest rates this year after April inflation numbers were softer than the prior month.Consumer prices rose 3.4% year-over-year in April, according to data from the Labor Department, lower than the 3.5% increase in March. On a monthly basis, inflation rose 0.3% in April, less than 0.4% in March. Markets are anticipating one to three rate cuts by the end of 2024, while odds that the Fed won't cut rates this year at all have been slashed in half, according to the <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CME FedWatch tool.</a>"Today's inflation news keeps multiple rate cuts on the table for the second half 2024," Preston Caldwell, the chief US economist at Morningstar said in a note on Wednesday. "Our base case is two cuts in 2024 (September and December) but three or four is not implausible with continued inflation progress in conjunction with weakening economic activity."Retail sales also came in softer than expected for the month of April, another sign the economy is cooling. Slower economic activity helps lower inflation, though it could also indicate a slowdown in economic growth."The 'soft landing' narrative is still a possibility but not a guarantee," Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist of LPL Financial said in a note. "Markets will be looking for more confirmation and the weak retail sales report did not help."Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,308.15, up 1.17% </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 39,908.00, up 0.88% (+349.89 points)</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 16,742.39, up 1.40%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/mormon-church-stock-portfolio-top-investments-holdings-ensign-peak-advisors-2024-5?_gl=1*1w9y4ns*_ga*MjMxMzA1Mzg2LjE2NTY0NDQxNTU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcxNTc4OTgzNi4xMTIwLjEuMTcxNTc5MDc4NC41Ni4wLjA.">These are the top 10 holdings of the Mormon Church's $55 billion stock portfolio</a>.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-flashes-bullish-signal-suggesting-record-highs-this-summer-2024-5?_gl=1*17imr0v*_ga*MjMxMzA1Mzg2LjE2NTY0NDQxNTU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcxNTc4OTgzNi4xMTIwLjEuMTcxNTc5MDc4NC41Ni4wLjA.">The S&amp;P 500 just flashed a bullish signal that suggests the stock market will hit record highs</a> this summer. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-prediction-artificial-intelligence-chips-gpu-earnings-report-2024-5?_gl=1*17imr0v*_ga*MjMxMzA1Mzg2LjE2NTY0NDQxNTU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcxNTc4OTgzNi4xMTIwLjEuMTcxNTc5MDc4NC41Ni4wLjA.">Nvidia's rally is bound to run out of steam</a>, as the chip giant's customers are turning into competitors, one analyst warns.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-china-russia-trade-relations-us-biden-tariffs-taiwan-2024-5">Jamie Dimon says China's relationship with Russia</a> will make it difficult for the US to fully engage with it.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ev-solar-tariffs-china-shock-economy-property-trade-war-krugman-2024-5">Biden's new tariffs shows he's willing to play hardball</a> as China ramps up its exports, according to Nobel economist Paul Krugman.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 0.99% to $78.79 a barrel. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, ticked higher 0.13% to $82.86 a barrel. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> climbed 1.21% to $2,3876.77 per ounce. </li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 10 basis points to 4.344%. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> surged 6.82% to $65,667. </li></ul>

Stock market today: S&P 500 closes at a record high as stocks rise on cooler April inflation

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Employment costs rose less than estimated last quarter, new data from the Labor Department shows.</li><li>The Fed often looks to the employment cost index for signs of inflation easing.</li></ul>US labor costs rose less than expected in the second quarter, giving the Fed new data to use toward a much-anticipated decision on rate cuts.New Labor Department figures showed employment costs rose by 0.9% between April and June, slowing from a 1.2% rise in the first-quarter. Economists had estimated a 1% increase, according to a Bloomberg survey.Growth in wages and salaries, a measure included in the index, eased to its slowest pace in over three years.The data is a welcome sign that inflation is easing, and could add to the Fed's confidence that inflation has slowed enough to allow for rate cuts. The Fed often uses the employment cost index as an indicator of inflation.In the past few weeks, Fed officials have consistently said they need more data on cooling inflation and a soft labor market before deciding when (and if) to cut interest rates.In a Wednesday <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20240731a1.pdf">press release</a> ahead of the FOMC meeting, the Fed said inflation is "somewhat elevated," showing inflation has eased closer toward the Fed's 2% target."The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance," the statement said. "The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate."That language marks a shift in the Fed's focus away from focusing wholly on inflation and toward ensuring both inflation and the labor market continue to cool before cutting rates.Investors are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-september-not-july-inflation-federal-reserve-powell-2024-7">widely expecting a September rate cut</a>, and are eagerly awaiting any confirmation signs during Wednesday afternoon's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to issue guidance on cuts during the meeting.Some analysts, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/next-fed-interest-rate-cut-december-september-employment-inflation-bofa-2024-7">including those from Bank of America</a>, think the Fed will continue to wait for more data on slowing inflation before making a decision on rate cuts.

You Searched For "April inflation" and got 9 results

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Stock market today: S&P 500 closes at a record high as stocks rise on cooler April inflation

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