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As the Papal voting gets underway, it's hard not to be reminded of the 2012 GOP primary.
At the time, everyone knew that Mitt Romney was the favorite, while the others (Newt, Santorum, etc.) tried to emerge as the anti-Romney.
At the Vatican, <keyword id="1557061" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Angelo-Scola">Angelo Scola</keyword> (from Milan) is the clear favorite.
And the question is whether a <keyword id="22680" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Pope">pope</keyword> from somewhere else can emerge as the anti-Scola.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Pope odds: Scola 30%, Scherer 15%, Turksin 13%, Erdo 10%, Bertone 9%, Ouellet 8%, O'Malley 6%, Von Schonborn 6%. (Via Betfair.)
— David Leonhardt (@DLeonhardt) <a href="https://twitter.com/DLeonhardt/status/311470998702669825">March 12, 2013</a></blockquote>

There's One Clear Favorite For Pope, And The Question Is Who Will Emerge As His Rival

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:400px"><div class="image"></div>AP</div>After weeks of deliberation, the formal process that will elect the next <keyword id="22680" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Pope">Pope</keyword> <a href="http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/08/17235761-vatican-papal-conclave-will-begin-tuesday">has been set for next Tuesday</a>.
And now, for the first time, we're beginning to see a clear favorite.
<a href="http://vaticaninsider.lastampa.it/en/the-vatican/detail/articolo/22983/">La Stampa's Vatican Insider</a>has published an article from respected reporter Andrea Tornielli that reports that Italian Cardinal Angelo Scola has become "Papabile."
Crucially, Scola, the Archbishop of Milan, can draw support not just from the Italian cardinals, but also bridge the gap with some American Cardinals, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-vatican-is-trying-to-subdue-a-growing-feud-between-cardinals-2013-3">who have reportedly been seeking more reforms than Vatican-based Cardinals</a>.
"[Scola] has been considered one of the possible candidates for the Papal Seat right from the beginning," Tornielli writes. "The votes of several American cardinals and of other European cardinal electors, from Germany to Eastern Europe, as well as those of some Italians, could be cast for him."
La Repubblica <a href="http://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2013/03/08/news/conclave_partita_a_due-54090146/?ref=search">concurs with Tornielli</a>, estimating that Scola has around 40 cardinals — including many who seek reform in the church — backing him so far.
Today online markets appear to be reflecting Scola's changing status. <a href="http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/current-affairs/pope-betting">Paddy Power now lists him as the clear favorite with 3/1 odds</a>, pulling away from Cardinal Peter Turkson and Cardinal Tasisio Bertone. These numbers can't be flat-out ignored — <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/03/04/betting-on-next-pope-gives-favorable-odds-to-italian-ghanaian-clerics.html">as Matthew Zeitlin explained over at the Daily Beast</a>, Paddy Power allows large bets, and as such it is possible that those with inside information could be placing bets on Scola.
Well-respected by Pope Benedict, the 71-year-old Scola <a href="http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/130307/angelo-scola-italian-cardinal-benedict-xvis-mould">is considered an ideological heir</a>. While his doctrinal views are considered conservative, he is known for social advocacy on issues like immigration and poverty, and has spoken out in favor of dialogue with the Islamic community.
One of Scola's key strengths is also one of his biggest weaknesses — he is Italian. While Europeans, and especially Italians, will dominate the papal conclave, a big question is whether the push for a non-European, "New World" Pope will gain serious traction.
If it does, Scola may have a serious competitor — both La Repubblica and La Stampa have pointed to Cardinal Odilo Scherer, the Archbishop of São Paulo, as another candidate being seriously considered.

The Archbishop Of Milan Is Emerging As A Clear Papal Favorite

UPDATE: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/live-papal-conclave-day-two-round-two-2013-3">HABEMUS PAPEM! But we don't know yet who it is &gt;</a>
This post from earlier today shows the final odds on the papacy.
Before the papal conclave started, it was beginning to look like <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/cardinal-angelo-scola-pope-favorite-2013-3">Cardinal Angelo Scola, the Archbishop of Milan,</a> had emerged as a clear favorite, with talk of a Brazilian or Canadian Cardinal becoming the "anti-Scola."
However, as the conclave prepares for the fourth round of voting today, <a href="http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/current-affairs/pope-betting/Next-Pope-4825595.html">something funny is happening to the odds on Paddy Power</a>:
<table class="image-container" width="200"><tr><td><div class="image"></div>paddy power</td></tr></table>
Yes, Peter Turkson, a Cardinal from Ghana, is now getting almost as good odds as Scola. In fact, at one point both Turkson and Scola were at 3-1.
A few weeks ago Paddy Power was calling Turkson the favorite, and a lot of people like the idea of a black, African <keyword id="22680" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Pope">pope</keyword>. As we wrote before, however, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/a-black-pope-2013-2">his potential to be Pope always seemed like a long shot</a>. The Catholic Church in Africa is a very different beast from that in Europe or Latin America, and Cardinals Scherer and Ouellet are very good candidates.
In recent days, Turkson had been placing much further down the pack. With these new odds he appears to have surged.
While we shouldn't rely too much on Paddy Power's odds, these numbers can't be flat-out ignored. 
<a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/03/04/betting-on-next-pope-gives-favorable-odds-to-italian-ghanaian-clerics.html">Matthew Zeitlin explained over at The Daily Beast</a> that Paddy Power allows large bets, and as such it is always possible that those with inside information could be placing them.
The longer the papal conclave goes on, the more obvious it is that the cardinals cannot agree on a pope. 
Given that Scola is the favorite, this means that each time we see black smoke, the more likely we are to see an unorthodox candidate such as Turkson.
But there may be a less scientific reason for Turkson's surge. Dennis Rodman is in the <keyword id="54513" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Vatican">Vatican</keyword> today, making a very public display of support for the Ghanian cardinal. Rodman's trip is, of course, <a href="http://www.freep.com/article/20130313/NEWS07/130313038/Dennis-Rodman-backs-black-papal-candidate-in-PR-stunt-at-Vatican">being sponsored by Paddy Power</a>.

TIED: There Are Now Two Front Runners In The Race For Pope...

<div class="image-container" style="width:590px"><div class="image"></div>Screengrab</div>
Black smoke has appeared at the chimney of the Sistine Chapel, meaning that no <keyword id="22680" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Pope">Pope</keyword> has been selected in the first round of the papal conclave voting.
The election to select a new Pope sees Catholic cardinals holed up in the chapel until they decide upon a new Pope. It will end once we see white smoke from the chimney (<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/how-the-papal-conclave-works-2013-3">for more on that, check here</a>).
Here's a live feed from the <keyword id="54513" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Vatican">Vatican</keyword>: 

It was always unlikely that the first round would result in a Pope — the new Pope needs a two thirds majority and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/angelo-scola-pope-favorite-2013-3">it's an unusually divided electorate this year</a>.
The current favorite on <a href="http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/current-affairs/pope-betting">live betting site Paddy Power</a> is the Archbishop of Milan, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/cardinal-angelo-scola-pope-favorite-2013-3">Angelo Scola</a>. He has some tough competition though, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/we-could-have-an-american-pope-2013-3">including some from American cardinals</a>.
Here's a shot of the world's most important chimney from earlier today.
<div class="image-container" style="width:590px"><div class="image"></div>Screengrab</div>
Tomorrow we'll be watching the chimney from 6am EST.

BLACK SMOKE AT VATICAN, NO POPE FOUND

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:400px"><div class="image"></div>AP</div>If you're interested in the <keyword id="67764" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Conclave">Conclave</keyword> -- the process of the Cardinals voting on the next <keyword id="22680" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Pope">Pope</keyword> -- you really should be reading <a href="http://vaticaninsider.lastampa.it/en/the-vatican/detail/articolo/conclave-23059/">Vatican Insider</a>, which is published by Italian newspaper La Stampa.
A report from superstar vatican reporter Andrea Tornielli has dish on who the frontrunners are right now. Remember, the voting starts Tuesday.
There seems to be one established certainty. Already as of tomorrow evening, when the 115 voters will shut themselves in the Sistine Chapel for the election, a fair number of votes (some mentioned 35, others 40) should go to the Archbishop of Milan, Angelo Scola, who has the support of various European cardinals and a few Americans. If he is elected, the papacy will become Italian again, thirty-five years after the election of John Paul I. Another candidate who should gather a fair amount of consensus is the Archbishop of São Paulo, Odilo Pedro Scherer, a Brazilian with a long experience in the Curia. Unconfirmed reports on the eve of the Conclave - which of course need to be taken with a pinch of salt – suggest the Brazilian could get 25 votes. A third candidate who might stand out from the beginning is the Canadian Marc Ouellet, Prefect of the Congregation for Bishops who is believed to be able to draw to himself twelve votes from South America and the United States. 
Meanwhile, we're likely to get <a href="http://vaticaninsider.lastampa.it/en/the-vatican/detail/articolo/conclave-23072/">our first sight of "smoke" at 1 PM ET tomorrow</a>. And it's likely to be black, suggesting that no candidate will get the requisite 2/3 of votes on the first day.

There Are 3 Frontrunners For The Pope - Here's How Much Support They May Already Have

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:276px"><div class="image"></div><a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&amp;search_source=search_form&amp;version=llv1&amp;anyorall=all&amp;safesearch=1&amp;searchterm=hannah+simone&amp;search_group=#id=126311996&amp;src=B3423F1E-8B74-11E2-816F-AE8B71D9A14D-1-98">Shutterstock</a></div>Good morning. Here's what you need to know.
<ul>
<li>Asian markets sold off in overnight trading, with the with Hang Seng index down 1.46 percent, and the <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/13/markets-hongkong-china-stocks-idUKL3N0C51D620130313">Shanghai Composite down nearly 1 percent on concerns of liquidity.</a> Europe is selling off, and U.S. futures are modestly lower.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/retail-sales-crush-expectations-2013-3">Retail sales beat expectations in February rising 1.1 percent</a>, above expectations of a 0.5 percent rise &gt;</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The Chinese central bank held a press conference in which Governor Zhou Xiaochuan struck a more hawkish tone than before. He said inflation should be watched closely and that monetary policy should be determined by inflation rather than asset classes like real estate. Bank of America's Ting Lu writes that this "might be a consequence of being criticized by the public for carrying out overly loose monetary policy since late 2008." <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/jefferies-seven-china-megatrends-2013-3">The seven megatrends that will dominate China's next decade &gt;</a></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>After failing to elect a new Pope Tuesday, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/13/us-pope-succession-idUSBRE92808520130313">115 Cardinals are reconvening for the Papal election today.</a> Reuters reports that in recent times there has never been a decision on the first day and the first vote just helps shortlist the top candidates. For now, Italy's Angelo Scola and Brazil's Odilo Scherer remain the favorites.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>After <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-ryans-budget-plan-2013-3"></a>Paul Ryan revealed his plan for a balanced budget yesterday, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/democratic-budget-1-trillion-in-new-taxes-2013-3">Democrats are expected to introduce their budget</a> during a press conference at 10:30 a.m. ET. <a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/budget/287625-senate-dem-budget-includes-nearly-1-trillion-in-new-taxes">Erik Wasson at The Hill</a> wrote "the first budget from Senate Democrats in four years includes nearly $1 trillion in new taxes but would not balance the budget". <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/howard-marks-oaktree-presentation-2013-3">Howard Marks' presentation on investing in uncertain times &gt;</a></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/100548520">Italian borrowing costs increased</a> at a Treasury auction of €3.3 billion of the three-year bond. Meanwhile, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-12/ireland-plans-first-sale-of-10-year-bonds-since-2010-bailout.html">Ireland received €12 billion in bids for 10-year bonds</a>. This is its first debt sale after its bailout in 2010, according to Bloomberg.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Business inventories for January are out at 10 a.m. ET. Consensus is for a 0.1 percent MoM rise in inventories. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/moneygame">Follow the release at Business Insider &gt;</a></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The IEA expects oil demand to be weak in 2013 on the back of a slow global economic recovery. <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/100548456">It lowered its 2013 oil demand forecast to 820,000 barrels per day (bpd)</a>, from 840,000 bpd.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/we-just-got-an-ugly-eurozone-industrial-production-number-2013-3">Euro area industrial production fell 0.4 percent</a> month-over-month in January, missing expectations for a 0.1 percent decline.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The U.S. Department of Agriculture <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324096404578356740206766164.html">(USDA) might purchase 400,000 tons of sugar</a> to avoid default by sugar processors, according to the WSJ. This is meant to support sugar prices that have tumbled ever since the USDA offered loans to sugar processors in October.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Bonus - New Girl star <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2292334/New-Girl-star-Hannah-Simone-embraces-figure-elegant-photoshoot.html">Hannah Simone told Glow magazine</a> that she hates being told she is "curvy or voluptuous" because they are polite ways of saying fat.</li>
</ul>

10 Things You Need To Know This Morning

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:275px"><div class="image"></div><a href="http://pictures.reuters.com/C.aspx?VP3=SearchResult_VPage&amp;VBID=2C04WNVVD16VB&amp;SMLS=1&amp;RW=1217&amp;RH=568#/SearchResult_VPage&amp;VBID=2C04WNVVD16VB&amp;SMLS=1&amp;RW=1217&amp;RH=568&amp;PN=2">REUTERS/Henry Romero</a></div>Good morning. Here's what you need to know.
<ul>
<li>Asian markets sold off in overnight trading with the Shanghai Composite down 1.04 percent, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-12/china-s-stock-futures-rise-signaling-gains-for-benchmark-index.html">falling for the fourth straight day.</a> Europe is mixed and U.S. futures are modestly lower.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/uk-industrial-output-falls-2013-3">UK industrial production fell 1.2 percent on the month in January</a>, missing expectations of a 0.1 percent increase. <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-12/u-k-industrial-output-unexpectedly-falls-as-oil-platform-halts.html">Manufacturing fell</a> 1.5 percent. Meanwhile, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-12/u-k-house-price-index-declines-as-demand-rebound-falls-short.html">UK home prices fell to -6 in February</a> from -4 the previous month, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Spanish borrowing costs fell at its latest Treasury auction. <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-12/spain-beats-maximum-target-at-bill-auction-as-yields-decline-1-.html">Spain sold €5.83 billion of six and 12-month notes</a>, at an average yield of 0.794 percent and 1.363 percent respectively. The sale beat the upper target of €5.5 billion. Meanwhile, <a href="http://www.startribune.com/business/197286991.html">Italian borrowing costs were up</a> at its €7.75 billion auction of 12-month bonds, the first since its downgrade.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323826704578354473539931716.html?mod=WSJ__MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsTop">115 Cardinals will begin voting for a new Pope</a> at the Sistine Chapel this afternoon. This comes at a time when there have been differences between Cardinals that work outside Rome and those inside the Vatican. <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/12/us-pope-succession-idUSBRE92808520130312">Italy's Angelo Scola and Brazil's Odilo Scherer</a> are said to be favorites, according to Reuters. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/who-are-the-pope-frontrunners-2013-3">The 3 frontrunners for the Papal election &gt;</a></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>At 10 a.m. ET,<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-ryan-unveils-his-budget-plan-today--heres-why-democrats-one-will-be-so-much-different-2013-3"> Paul Ryan will unveil his plan to balance the U.S. budget by 2013</a>. Ryan's “The Path to Prosperity: A Responsible, balanced budget,” seeks to do so with $4.6 trillion in spending cuts.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The Treasury Budget for February is out at 2 p.m. ET. Economists polled by Bloomberg are looking for deficit of $205.0 billion. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/moneygame">Follow the release at Business Insider &gt;</a></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324735304578355833310183530.html">Costco's earnings were up 39 percent</a> in the second quarter, and same store sales were up 5 percent. The retailer reported earnings of $1.24 per share, on revenue of $24.86 billion. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/gartman-why-i-have-exited-stocks-2013-3">Gartman: I'm staying out of stocks because of all the insider selling &gt;</a></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Blackberry, formerly known as Research in Motion, saw its shares surge 14 percent on Monday, after <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/12/us-blackberry-att-idUSBRE92A0KR20130312?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=technologyNews&amp;utm_source=dlvr.it&amp;utm_medium=twitter&amp;dlvrit=56505">reports that it could be acquired by Lenovo.</a> Share prices were also driven by news that the Blackberry Z10 smartphone would be on sale in the U.S. on March 22.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-12/india-industrial-production-beats-estimates-after-policy-changes.html">Indian industrial production was up 2.4 percent on the year</a>, beating expectations of a 1.3 percent rise. Meanwhile <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-11/rbi-s-91-billion-bond-buying-aids-india-deficit-it-criticizes.html">consumer prices</a> are up almost 11 percent year-over-year in February. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/photos-indias-illegal-coal-mines-2012-10">Devastating photos of India's illegal coal mines &gt;</a></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/german-inflation-falls-2013-3">German inflation eased to 1.8 percent in February</a> from 1.9 percent the previous month. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/11-awesome-math-tricks-that-will-make-your-life-so-much-easier-2013-2">11 math tricks that will make your life so much easier &gt;</a></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Bonus - Actress Olivia Wilde said <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2291618/Olivia-Wilde-worried-funnyman-Jason-Sudeikis-league.html">she worried that she wasn't beautiful enough</a> when she first met her fiance Jason Sudeikis.</li>
</ul>

<div class="image-container" style="width:594px"><div class="image"></div>AP</div>
At the time of writing, <a href="http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/current-affairs/pope-betting/Next-Pope-4825595.html">Irish betting shop Paddy Power is offering 3/1 odds</a> on Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana being the next pope. Just yesterday, with odds of 11/4, he was the clear favorite.
<table class="image-container" width="200"><tr><td><div class="image"></div>Paddy Power</td></tr></table>
InTrade is also offering good odds, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/who-will-replace-pope-benedict-voting-catholic-conclave-2013-2#cardinal-peter-kodwo-appiah-turkson-1">with 22.5% likelihood</a>.
That's a big deal. Turkson is not only black but he is from Africa, and would be a clear change from an almost uninterrupted line of white, European Popes going back two millennia. What's more surprising, Turkson isn't the only black candidate in the running. Cardinal Francis Arinze of Nigeria is another black, African contender who currently has 25/1 odds on Paddy Power.
It's a pretty amazing moment — there have been a few black candidates for Pope in the last few decades, but none have come this close. In a show of goodwill, Paddy Power is offering to refund all losing bets if a black Pope is elected.
The buzz around Turkson for the papacy could indicate that the <keyword id="64436" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Catholic-Church">Catholic Church</keyword> is finally acknowledging a key demographic shift. <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/24/world/africa/catholic-church-fills-growing-void-in-africa.html">The New York Times reports</a> that as many as 16 percent of Catholics now live in Africa, and many observers believe the religion's future lies with the continent.
Turkson could be a good choice — he's well-liked within the College of Cardinals and known as a a great communicator. His age may also count in his favor — at 64, he is over a decade younger than Benedict was when he became Pope. The Cardinal even seems to be angling for the job,<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/13/catholic-church-pope-ghanaian-cardinal"> telling reporters this month</a>, "I think in a way the church is always and has forever been ready for a non-European pope."
But while Turkson is the favorite, it remains more likely that a European Pope will be chosen — in fact, we get the impression that odds of 3/1 for Turkson could be inflated.
<a href="http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2013/02/white-smoke-for-a-black-pope.html">As Naunihal Singh notes over at the New Yorker</a>, if we're talking about demographics we should probably be thinking about a Pope from Latin America, where 40 percent of the world's Catholics live. In fact, any kind of Spanish-speaking priest would probably make sense — Cardinal Leonardo Sandri of Argentina is currently placed at <a class="tipper">14/1, and </a>Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines isn't too distant at <a class="tipper">33/1</a>.
Then, as always, there's the Italians. Right now the second and third favorites at Paddy Power are from Italy, and we shouldn't be too surprised if the <keyword id="54513" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Vatican">Vatican</keyword>'s bias for a local hero comes back into play — especially after two non-Italians in a row. One Italian candidate, Archbishop Angelo Scola, is currently at joint odds with Turkson on Paddy Power. Together, the two Italian favorites have odds of 9/20.
Then there's the Africa issue. The Catholic Church in Africa is very disconnected from the rest of the Church. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/who-will-replace-pope-benedict-2013-2#cardinal-peter-kodwo-appiah-turkson-2">While Catholics in Europe</a> talk about sexual politics and theological disputes, in Africa they talk about exorcism, animism, the growth of Islam, and condemnation of Western economic policy.
Turkson's personal views are conservative, and sometimes controversial — <a href="http://api.viglink.com/api/click?format=go&amp;key=af55b3e2b38e0fb15ca13cc095b84428&amp;loc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffingtonpost.com%2F2013%2F02%2F20%2Fpeter-turkson-gay-priests-to-blame-for-child-sex-abuse_n_2724241.html&amp;v=1&amp;libid=1361904973197&amp;out=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fnews%2Farticle-2281411%2FCardinal-Peter-Turkson-blames-gay-priests-abuse-scandals-facing-Catholic-church.html&amp;title=Cardinal%20Peter%20Turkson%2C%20Pope%20Contender%2C%20Suggests%20Gay%20Priests%20To%20Blame%20For%20Church%20Child%20Sex%20Abuse&amp;txt=Turkson's%20perceived%20anti-gay%20remarks&amp;jsonp=vglnk_jsonp_13619049775402">he has been perceived as anti-gay by some observers</a>. A Church that has seen so many scandals in recent years might be seeking someone seen as more open and liberal.
That's before we even get into a particularly thorny issue — racism and racial sensitivity.
Turkson himself seems to know that this could be a problem. <a href="http://ncronline.org/blogs/all-things-catholic/papal-contender-grabs-spotlight">In an interview in 2010 with the National Catholic Reporter</a>, Turkson, who lives in the Vatican, told John Allen Jnr:
The other day, for instance, somebody asked me about a black pope. I told him that obviously anybody who becomes a priest can become a bishop, a cardinal, whatever. But I also said point-blank that unfortunately, our world today is too color-sensitive. This is the truth. Somebody could report that in a way that makes me sound racist, which would be unfortunate, but I think the truth needs to be said. When it comes to a black pope, a lot of people say it doesn't matter, but the truth is that it would matter a lot.
When Allen asked him if racial sensitivity makes a black pope more or less likely he responded:
I can't say what the cardinals might be thinking, but I can say this: I wouldn't want to be that first black pope. I think he'll have a rough time.
It's worth noting that, even if he won, it's unclear whether Turkson would really be considered the "first black Pope." In the Catholic Church's first 500 years of existence, Popes Victor I, Miltiades, and Gelasius I all came from Northern Africa, though whether they would be considered "black" or "African" today is a matter of debate.

Sorry, But The Next Pope Probably Won't Be Black

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:400px"><div class="image"></div>Getty / Franco Origlia</div>Today is officially the last day of <keyword id="22679" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Pope-Benedict">Pope Benedict</keyword> XVI's time as head of the <keyword id="64436" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Catholic-Church">Catholic Church</keyword> and the search for a new <keyword id="22680" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Pope">Pope</keyword> has already begun.
It may be a tough selection process. There's a lot of candidates out there — <a href="http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/current-affairs/pope-betting/Next-Pope-4825595.html">Paddy Power is listing over 70</a>. There's a few clear favorite, including a couple of Italians, a Cardinal from Quebec, and a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/a-black-pope-2013-2">Black cardinal from Ghana</a>.
However, we believe there's one great candidate right under our nose who isn't getting enough attention.
Boston Cardinal Sean O'Malley has <a href="http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion/local_coverage/2013/02/cardinal_o_malley_in_rome_as_pope_prepares_to_step_down">reportedly flown to Rome</a> where he will take part in a meeting to decide when the conclave to find the next Pope will take place. While Paddy Power puts <a href="http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/current-affairs/pope-betting/Next-Pope-4825595.html">him at a mid-ranking 40/1</a>, reports in the <a href="http://ncronline.org/blogs/ncr-today/buzz-grows-rome-bostons-omalley">Italian media linking his name to the top spot</a> have begun to appear.
O'Malley could be a great candidate for three crucial reasons.
<h2>His handling of abuse</h2>
In Boston, O'Malley is perhaps best known for a sympathetic, human response to sexual abuse in the region — a welcome change from one predecessor, Cardinal Bernard Law, who became notorious for cover-ups.
O'Malley was forced to confront abuse in the Church after <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sexual_abuse_scandal_in_Fall_River_diocese">the sexual abuse scandal in Fall River diocese broke in the early 1990s</a>. By 1995 when he required all Catholic clergymen, staff and volunteers with access to children to participate in abuse prevention workshops, complete a detailed questionnaire on their past, and agree to a criminal background check. His policy was summed up as zero-tolerance.
The work in Boston earned him a reputation. By 2002, when he accepted a position in Florida, replacing a Bishop accused of abuse, one lawyer who had <a href="http://www.boston.com/globe/spotlight/abuse/stories3/090402_bishop.htm">represented over 100 abuse victims told the Boston Globe</a> he "thought the world" of O'Malley.
For a Church that is widely seen as having mishandled decades of abuse, someone with O'Malley's experience could be vital for moving on. Even those that felt he didn't go far enough — and he certainly has critics — may admit he'd be a step in the right direction.
"He saw it firsthand. That's all I've got to go on. That doesn't mean I'm delighted, but he's the best they've got," Bernie McDaid, <a href="http://www.npr.org/2013/02/27/173045197/as-pope-resigns-clergy-abuse-survivors-remember-2008-meeting">a survivor of Catholic abuse in Boston told NPR</a>.
<h2>He speaks Spanish</h2>
O'Malley has never resided in the Vatican for an extended period, and <a href="http://ncronline.org/blogs/ncr-today/buzz-grows-rome-bostons-omalley">his Italian is described as "basic" by John Allen of the National Catholic Reporter</a> — far from ideal.
However, O'Malley has considerable language skills. Not only is he a Native-English speaker, but he holds a phD in Spanish and Portuguese literature. In both Boston and Florida, O'Malley has shown himself adept at understanding Latino communities. <a href="http://bostonglobe.com/opinion/columns/2013/02/21/why-cardinal-sean-malley-boston-should-pope/0dOYIh6qNitsjXuLMIgEBN/story.html">Writing in the Boston Globe</a>, Xavier L. Suarez says that his work with the community resulted in him being "unofficially but universally recognized as Hispanic".
Having a Spanish-speaker as leader of the Vatican is a clear advantage for the Catholic Church for one key reason — demographics.
South America is home to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/02/11/world/europe/the-catholic-church-shifted-southward-over-the-past-century.html">almost 40% of all Catholics</a>, where as Europe is just 23.7%. However, the church there is seen to be facing strong competition from both Evangelical movements and secularism, <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2013/02/white-smoke-for-a-black-pope.html">Naunihal Singh notes in the New Yorker</a>.
<h2>He understands the Internet</h2>
The Vatican can't have failed to notice how <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-pope-is-getting-his-own-twitter-account-2012-2">popular the Pope's Twitter account</a>, launched last year, was. With O'Malley they will have a Pope who has already proved himself adept at communicating with the internet.
In 2006, O'Malley became the first Cardinal with his own blog, <a href="http://www.cardinalseansblog.org/">which he continues to use to this day</a>. He later <a href="http://www.boston.com/news/local/articles/2006/12/21/cardinal_omalley_to_launch_podcasts/">launched a podcast series</a>, which <a href="http://www.cardinalseansblog.org/2006/12/22/leading-up-to-christmas/">he described as</a> "yet another tool I can use to reach the young people in our Church who more and more are turning to the Internet for their information."
He now <a href="https://twitter.com/CardinalSean">has a Twitter account</a> with over 10,000 followers, though it exists largely to promote his blog.
The blog acts as a pretty fascinating glimpse into his life. For example, here's a paragraph from <a href="http://www.cardinalseansblog.org/page/2/">the day after the Pope's resignation</a> was announced:
So many things appear on the Internet that are just jokes or hoaxes to get a rise out of people that I said, “I don’t think that can be an accurate statement.” However, by the time we came out of our meditation, lauds and Mass at about 8 o’clock, it was being reported by all the mainstream news outlets. So, I realized it had to be true.
A media-savvy Pope who can blog and tweet in English, Spanish, Portuguese and (maybe with a little help) Italian? That sounds like a 21st Century Pope.
<h2>Could he do it?</h2>
O'Malley is far from a favorite — he's not even the favorite American, according to Paddy Power. Cardinal Timothy Dolan currently leads him by 33/1 to 40/1, and is generally seen as a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/who-will-replace-pope-benedict-2013-2#cardinal-timothy-dolan-10">more charismatic speaker</a>.
While the desire for a non-European Pope is strong, it doesn't mean that it's going to happen. An overwhelmingly <a href="%20http://www.businessinsider.com/benedict-resignation-next-pope-cardinal-electorate-2013-2">European group of Cardinals will make up the conclave</a>, and its not hard to see why they may balk at the idea of a Pope from the world's richest, most powerful country.
Many observers believe that, after a Polish Pope followed by a German Pope, the numerous Italians in the conclave may want an Italian. Archbishop Angelo Scola and Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone, both from Italy, are among the favorites. Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana is being offered good odds, though<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/a-black-pope-2013-2"> he faces his own major obstacles</a>.
Cardinal Marc Ouellet from Canada is another strong possibility. Speaking English, French, Portuguese, Italian, Spanish and German, and having done missionary work in South America, he has some similar positive attributes to O'Malley. But Ouellet is from Quebec, where the Catholic Church has all-but-disappeared within his lifetime.
O'Malley is taking things lightly, joking that he has <a href="http://www.salemnews.com/opinion/x1503758282/Our-view-OMalley-an-intriguing-candidate-for-pope">bought a two-way ticket back to Boston</a>. “I assure you no cardinal goes into the conclave with the ambition of being chosen for this responsibility,” he <a href="http://www.wbur.org/2013/02/25/boston-catholics-omalley">told a mass last week</a>.
For the sake of the Catholic Church, we think the conclave should consider him seriously.

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