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<ul><li>Global bankruptcy expert Professor <keyword id="7460777" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Edward-Altman">Edward Altman</keyword> warns that global debt levels are too high</li><li>Macro-economic data, Fed's policy, oil and gold prices, all point to an unfolding recession</li><li>Unsecured, short-term credit to corporates has ballooned in India too</li><li>On the other hand, <keyword id="3414353" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global-Ratings">S&amp;P Global Ratings</keyword> expects the next crisis to be milder than the one in 2008</li></ul>The US Federal Reserve set off alarm bells when it unexpectedly decided not to hike interest rates. The signal from Fed has eroded the markets' confidence in the world's largest economy and triggered fears of another recession. And when a giant economy like America wobbles, panic is inevitable. Markets are tumbling across the world and India is no exception. Benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, fell as much as a percent on Monday as investors were gripped by the fears of a global crisis. And the next economic crisis may be bigger than the one in 2008, according to global bankruptcy expert Professor Edward Altman. "Impact of the crisis will depend on the level of debt. Debt levels in US are twice as much as it was just before 2008 crisis. Default rate when it rises it will rise against a lot more debt than ever before," Altman told Business Insider in an interview in February. "Default rates peak after a recession," he added. The total debt in US was 231% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) compared to 208% in June 2008, according to S&amp;P Global Ratings. US corporate debt has gone from nearly $4.9 trillion in 2007, before the crisis blew up, to nearly $9.1 trillion by June 2018, according to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/21/theres-a-9-trillion-corporate-debt-bomb-bubbling-in-the-us-economy.html" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association data</a> quoted by CNBC in November last year. The picture may be equally ominous even for India, where government debt-to-GDP ratio is 68.4%. The only other emerging economy whose debt situation is worse than that of India is Brazil, according to an <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/india-s-debt-to-gdp-ratio-second-worst-among-emerging-markets-report-119022400732_1.html" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">analysis by Motilal Oswal</a>. Not just the government, one in every $10 lent to emerging market corporates, is reportedly borrowed by a company in India. “A significant global economic slowdown may trigger a severe risk-off, which could spill over into our markets,” Upasana Bharadwaj, senior economist at <keyword id="46013" type="CITY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kotak-Mahindra-Bank">Kotak Mahindra Bank</keyword> <a href="https://in.reuters.com/article/india-stocks/indian-shares-join-asian-sell-off-financials-top-drag-idINKCN1R60GY" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">told Reuters</a>. Higher the debt, deeper the crisis As Indian banks found themselves saddled by bad loans, and the corrective measures constrained them from lending more, companies gravitated towards bond markets, ratings agency <a href="https://www.crisil.com/en/home/our-analysis/reports/2018/10/crisil-yearbook-on-the-indian-debt-market-2018.html" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Crisil said in a report</a> last year. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 Within India, corporate borrowing via commercial papers has risen ten-fold in the last eight years and the outstanding debt on that account has quadrupled, according to <keyword id="6359483" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Crisil">Crisil</keyword>. Commercial paper is an unsecured, short-term loan used by a corporation to meet immediate funding requirements like working capital, inventories, and receivables. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 While companies have not borrowed from banks directly, 30% of all outstanding commercial paper were held by banks at the end of March 2018. A weaker global economy will further dent demand for exporting countries like India, which is already feeling the heat from rising protectionism in developed countries. The growing fear is if the global economy weakens then many borrowers may default on their loans. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 Even the recent rebound is coming off a very low-base in exports. Falling exports and rising imports lead to a rise in borrowing cost, weaker rupee, and higher inflation. "Debt is a double-edged sword, but people and politicians forget it," Altman added. Not everyone agrees However, there are optimists around. "Although another credit downturn may be inevitable, we don't believe it will be as bad as the 2008-2009 global financial crisis," <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/12/global-debt-up-50-percent-since-the-financial-crisis-sp-says.html" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">according to credit analyst Terry Chan</a> from S&amp;P Global Ratings. The reason for Chan's optimism is that the rise in debt is largely at the government end, and lesser at household or corporate level. "The high ratio of domestic funding for Chinese corporate debt also reduces contagion risk, because we believe the Chinese government has the means and the motive to prevent widespread defaults," S&amp;P reportedly said. Simply put, the impact of defaults may not spread as widely around the world as it did in 2008, because, this time, companies in China borrowed from local lenders and not from those abroad. The fear is spreading On the other hand, fear itself can be the starting point of a credit crunch. "Estimates for growth and earnings have been revised down materially across all major regions," <a href="https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-prices-slide-on-concerns-of-sharp-economic-slowdown-1816534" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">according to Morgan Stanley</a>. The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/yet-another-recession-warning-just-flashed-red-a-treasury-yield-curve-just-inverted-for-the-first-time-since-2007/articleshow/68527618.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">yield on US 10-year government bonds</a> fell below the three-month bonds for the first time since 2007. Such moves have historically signalled a possible recession in the near future. German manufacturing growth too, slumped to the lowest level since the financial crisis. <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/business/gold-prices-gold-gains-as-us-recession-fears-boost-safe-haven-assets-2012290" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Gold prices</a> are rising and <a href="https://in.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-prices-drop-almost-1-percent-on-concerns-recession-may-be-looming-idINKCN1R601R" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">crude oil prices</a> falling, are other signs confirming that the market is getting increasingly jittery. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/yet-another-recession-warning-just-flashed-red-a-treasury-yield-curve-just-inverted-for-the-first-time-since-2007/articleshow/68527618.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Yet another recession warning just flashed red - a Treasury 'yield curve' just inverted for the first time since 2007</a>

The next economic crisis is almost here -- will it be worse than 2008?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Hello there! Smartphones are great, but easy access to a camera means many of us have way too many photos. (Especially true if you have kids.) A professional declutterer offered tips for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-do-with-all-your-digital-photos-2024-8">getting your digital images in order</a>.In today's big story, viewers are opting for free TV, and that's throwing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/behind-free-tv-rise-big-problem-for-hollywood-2024-8">a massive wrench in Hollywood's plans</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: A billionaires' beef at a hedge fund led to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/two-sigma-founders-step-down-as-ceos-new-leadership-2024-8">both cofounders stepping down</a>.</li><li>Tech: A stock dip and key takeaways from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-earnings-call-live-updates-nvda-stock-2024-8">Nvidia's earnings report</a>.</li><li>Business: You can stop stressing about <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/credit-score-report-monitoring-worth-it-experian-emails-anxiety-2024-8">your credit score so much</a>.</li></ul>But first, what's on (free) TV?If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="a0493b1f-5bc3-4eca-a1ca-3d3c43f9e628">The big story</h3><h2 id="0975dd9d-8109-4649-9ea2-0c0b28cac2bf">Changing channels</h2><div type="image" title="TV screen on red carpet" height="1500" width="2000" msid="112899878" hostid="261" sizebytes="402406"></div>If the best things in life truly are free, Hollywood is about to learn a brutal lesson.More viewers are opting for free TV options in a move threatening to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/behind-free-tv-rise-big-problem-for-hollywood-2024-8">upend Hollywood's decades-old business model of people paying for content</a>, writes Business Insider's Lucia Moses.Hollywood spent years (and hundreds of millions of dollars) building massive libraries that people would be willing to subscribe to. By 2022, the business model was proving difficult, and cheaper, ad-supported options were offered.But what's really caught people's attention over the past year has been "free, ad-supported TV" or FAST services. Chief among them is YouTube, which became the first streaming TV service to surpass 10% of total viewing this July, according to Nielsen. Netflix, meanwhile, sits at 8.4%.Tubi, The Roku Channel, and Pluto TV are also gaining on their paid counterparts. This July, the biggest FAST services saw their share of TV viewing jump to 14.8% from 12.5% the previous year. Paid streaming's 17.2% share, meanwhile, remained flat.Every industry is dealing with cost-cutting consumers. But FAST's rise isn't just about saving a couple bucks. Many of the FAST services mirror old-school linear TV that let viewers flip through channels, making it an easier way to passively watch TV.<div type="image" title="Bar graph of share of TV viewing for select paid and free streaming services" height="932" width="1238" msid="112899881" hostid="261" sizebytes="22672"></div>Legacy media companies have their own FAST services, but that's only half the battle.Fox's Tubi has been the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-fox-tubi-streamer-won-gen-z-grew-audience-2024-5">fastest-growing streamer in the past year,</a> and is a hit with Gen Z. Paramount (Pluto TV) and Comcast (Xumo) are also in the mix, with Warner Bros. Discovery reportedly not far behind.But growth is one thing. Making money is something else entirely. Despite launching over a decade ago and having 80 million monthly active users, Tubi isn't profitable.Figuring out how to make money from free TV is a big enough problem. But that's not the only fire legacy media is fighting. A recent ruling against a to-be-launched sports streamer has opened questions about <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/venu-fubo-tv-cable-bundle-cord-cutting-disney-fox-wbd-2024-8">the future of the cable bundle</a> and has competitors <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/directv-disney-cable-bundle-pay-tv-venu-sports-fubo-streaming-2024-8">out for blood</a>.But Hollywood's biggest problem might be its inability to keep pace with an audience that expects its content at lightspeed.YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram have the benefit of an endless amount of user-generated content that's always atop the cultural zeitgeist. Very demure. Very mindful.Meanwhile, the traditional TV model takes much longer. And what once was considered hot can very quickly cool off when viewers finally get their hands on it. (See: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-bear-season-3-reviews-critics-2024-6">"The Bear" season 3</a>.)And trying to replicate the magic of YouTube or social media on television comes with its own issues. Just ask Amazon about <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-mrbeast-reality-show-deal-became-problem-for-amazon-2024-8">its MrBeast project</a>.<h3 id="12a45b91-89ab-4f08-9e85-2abf5485fa8e">News brief</h3><h2 id="9b3881fa-95c6-4cf8-b0bf-0d990f72e921">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Why the November election is a win for the stock market <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-trump-harris-bullish-equities-deficit-dollar-strength-2024-8">no matter who comes out on top</a>.</li><li>US home prices <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-housing-market-home-prices-record-case-shiller-affordability-mortgage-2024-8">hit another record high</a>.</li><li>A former Nvidia researcher who left the chip giant for academia shares <a target="_blank" href="https://businessinsider.com/post/preview?svapi&amp;post_id=66cb945bb6269761a73a49ec">why AI models should be open source and free</a> for all.</li><li>The middle class's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/social-security-retirement-savings-middle-class-outlive-benefits-income-expenses-2024-8">worst retirement fear</a>.</li><li>NATO must learn <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nato-must-learn-from-ukraine-keep-air-supremacy-us-general-2024-8">lessons from Ukraine</a> to keep its air superiority, US general says.</li><li>Legal expert explains why <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-trump-indictment-shorter-stronger-case-legal-expert-2024-">Trump's new indictment</a> is far stronger despite being 9 pages shorter.</li></ul><h2 id="ffd542f4-634d-47f6-a12c-b8d3d33ae14a">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="AI hand holding cash." height="882" width="1654" msid="112899875" hostid="261" sizebytes="89674"></div><ol><li>Welcome to the AI-driven stock market, where everything is made up and the points don't matter. When interest rates are high, companies usually tighten their purse strings. But the opposite has been true amid the AI boom, as Big Tech continues to invest heavily. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-sparks-capex-spending-boom-despite-feds-higher-interest-rates-2024-8">And it's not slowing down</a>.</li><li>Two Sigma's leadership shakeup. The $60 billion fund's billionaire cofounders, John Overdeck and David Siegel, grabbed headlines for a personal spat that eventually spilled into public view. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/two-sigma-founders-step-down-as-ceos-new-leadership-2024-8">Now they are both stepping down</a>, with Carter Lyons and Scott Hoffman replacing them as co-CEOs.</li><li>Warren Buffett's bittersweet $1 trillion. The legendary investor's conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway, briefly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-trillion-dollar-valuation-2024-8">surpassed a $1 trillion market cap on Wednesday</a>. But the milestone highlights a pain point Buffett has previously lamented: Berkshire's massive size makes it harder to deliver great returns.</li></ol><h2 id="3299e11b-ae8c-4116-b97c-6b55a37b9447">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Photo illustration of Jensen Huang" height="975" width="1300" msid="112899876" hostid="261" sizebytes="114242"></div><ol><li>Nvidia's stock dips as earnings fall short of highest expectations. Though the chip giant exceeded second-quarter expectations when it reported earnings Wednesday, it <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-earnings-call-live-updates-nvda-stock-2024-8">fell short of some of its loftiest guidance</a> for Q3. That triggered a small slide of 5% in after-hours trading. During the earnings call, CEO Jensen Huang faced questions about the return on AI spending and drilled down on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-swift-returns-on-ai-infrastructure-2024-8">several places he sees profits coming from</a>.</li><li>The 9 factors to consider before buying AI, according to Amazon. Leaked Amazon sales documents show which key components customers take into account when buying generative AI models. The guidelines offer a clue into the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-l-9-factors-customers-consider-before-buying-ai-aws-2024-8">e-commerce giant's AI strategy</a>.</li><li>So ordered, with help from the robots. Legal tech is undergoing an AI revolution as lawyers seek to outsource the more tedious parts of their job to artificial helpers. These are the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/15-legal-tech-startups-ai-raised-most-vc-funding-2024-8">15 startups that have raised the most funding</a> from VCs like A16z and Menlo Ventures</li></ol><h2 id="e0d014df-9f3f-45fb-a7ec-c4ebdbdc3dfc">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="An anxious person scrutinizing a credit score meter, with a needle pointing to a good rating." height="1500" width="2000" msid="112899880" hostid="261" sizebytes="84956"></div><ol><li>Your credit score anxiety is a real money-maker. Credit-card companies have figured out how to profit from consumers' anxiety, offering credit monitoring add-ons for a cost. But many credit card owners don't know that a lot of those services are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/credit-score-report-monitoring-worth-it-experian-emails-anxiety-2024-8">available for free</a>.</li><li>Wall Street's big green flip-flop. Banks once promised to fix the planet; now, they're making an about-face. Here's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-banks-backtrack-climate-change-fighting-promises-2024-8">why the big banks are backsliding</a> on their sustainability promises.</li><li>Sam Altman's rocky year has nothing on OpenAI's fundraising frenzy. Despite a string of high-profile controversies this year, OpenAI's fundraising momentum <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sam-altman-openai-100-billion-club-2024-8">shows no signs of slowing</a>. The AI pioneer is in talks to raise more funds that would value it at over $100 billion.</li></ol><h2 id="4ada8d3a-ea14-42e9-b26e-195e2593ebbc">In other news</h2><ul><li>Chinese Tesla rival launches $22,000 EV with self-driving features. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-rival-china-xpeng-launches-cheap-ev-self-driving-tech-2024-8">Here's why that's a big problem for Tesla</a>.</li><li>8 market-beating stocks that professional money managers love most: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-hedge-funds-mutual-funds-investing-goldman-sachs-2024-8">Goldman Sachs</a>.</li><li>Taylor Swift praised Charli XCX in a new interview. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taylor-swift-charli-xcx-friendship-feud-explained-2024-8">Here's everything you need to know about their rumored feud</a>.</li><li>See 5 lavish homes billionaires are selling — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/billionaire-homes-for-sale-photos-2024-8">and why some could struggle to find a buyer</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="ea4a0de9-7f2a-4894-828c-56a89081eeb4">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Kamala Harris and Tim Walz's interview with Dana Bash airs on CNN.</li><li>Revised GDP data for Q2 is released.</li><li>Second season of "The Rings of Power" drops on Prime.</li><li>Gap, Best Buy, Campbell's Soup and other companies <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/earnings-calendar">report earnings</a>.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.

Hollywood has a big problem with how people are watching TV these days

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Hello! Ah, to be young and optimistic. Gen Z's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-reject-corporate-jargon-corporate-accent-2024-7">latest takedown target is corporate jargon</a>. Let's put a pin in that and circle back in a couple of years.In today's big story, what to expect from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-gpt5-gpt4-expectations-ai-2024-7">OpenAI's newest AI model</a> that's in the works.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: A research firm says this chart shows why <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-chart-prediction-cyclical-bull-rally-last-years-2024-7">the current bull market is far from over</a>.</li><li>Tech: One canceled Microsoft AI deal <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pharma-cio-cancelled-microsoft-copilot-ai-tool-2024-7">should worry the whole industry</a>.</li><li>Business: Internal documents show Amazon's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-healthcare-one-medical-billion-loss-cost-cutting-profitability-2024-7">projections for its healthcare business</a>.</li></ul>But first, let me upgrade you.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="0642bd0e-e971-4663-bff4-7c413bf24f3d">The big story</h3><h2 id="8e8b25cf-af5c-4ba5-823b-ade7efe8b096">Great expectations</h2><div type="image" title="Photo illustration of Sam Altman." height="1500" width="2000" msid="112172694" hostid="261" sizebytes="132654"></div>OpenAI shook up the world with the launch of ChatGPT in 2022. But can its latest upgrade do the same?GPT-5, the newest model upgrade for OpenAI's chatbot, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-launch-better-gpt-5-chatbot-2024-3">is coming soon</a>. Business Insider's Darius Rafieyan spoke to OpenAI customers and developers about <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-gpt5-gpt4-expectations-ai-2024-7">their expectations for the latest iteration</a>.Plenty of people have high hopes, and for good reason. The jump between GPT-3, which powered ChatGPT when it launched, and GPT-4, which came out last year, was substantial. One user compared it to going from grade school to undergrad.But others don't see the newest model making as big a step as its predecessor. One potential customer told Darius the gap between GPT-4 and GPT-5 will be more like going from undergrad to a PhD program.But they can still dream! High on the wishlist is "agentic actions," or when a model performs <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/multi-agent-systems-are-the-next-big-thing-in-ai-2024-7">multiple complex steps in a row</a>. Instead of just giving you a trip itinerary, ChatGPT could actually book the trip. Being able to seamlessly work across audio, video, and text is also high on the list.<div type="image" title="sam altman" height="950" width="1440" msid="112172688" hostid="261" sizebytes="167996"></div>Users aren't the only ones with big hopes for GPT-5.OpenAI has a lot riding on its newest model, including its ability to get customers to cough up more cash. The startup hasn't been shy about spending big, with operating costs that could <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-big-tech-spending-on-ai-investments-2024-7#open-ai-2">reportedly surpass $8 billion this year</a>.With investors pressing tech companies on their <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-hype-train-profits-valuations-startups-google-openai-2024-7">AI projects' paths to profitability</a>, OpenAI could quickly face pressure if GPT-5 can't attract more customers.But it's not just about making money. (I'll wait for you to stop laughing.)OpenAI took considerable heat during its last big unveiling. The launch of GPT-4o in May <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-chatgpt-audio-feature-talk-ai-2024-5">was initially praised</a>, but it wasn't long before a literal superhero <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/scarlett-johansson-angry-chatgpt-voice-declined-offer-openai-sam-altman-2024-5">came after the startup</a>.Criticism <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-mess-concerns-over-nda-safety-sam-altman-2024-6">continued to mount against OpenAI</a> and CEO Sam Altman about its lack of focus on safety.A new model is bound to get plenty of scrutiny — remember the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-gemini-bias-sundar-pichai-memo-2024-2">Google Gemini controversy</a> earlier this year? — which could open the startup to additional risk.That's not ideal for a company that's preparing to take on one of the biggest juggernauts in tech: Google's Search. OpenAI announced plans for SearchGPT that's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-searchgpt-search-engine-prototype-declares-war-with-google-2024-5">a direct shot at Google's business</a>.SearchGPT relies on GPT-4 at the moment, but it's safe to assume that GPT-5 will take on that underlying role in the future. A big stumble by the latter would almost certainly hurt the former's chances of competing with one of the most widely used tools on the web.<h2 id="e7ad5a04-e409-4b8e-a5a6-9c0198f1ef94">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="wall street bull with illustration of cash floating behind" height="1000" width="2000" msid="112172695" hostid="261" sizebytes="321014"></div><ol><li>The bull market isn't going anywhere. Ned Davis Research highlighted historical trends indicating the current cyclical bull rally will last well into 2025. Slight market corrections like the Nasdaq's dip last week are expected, but the risk of a new bear market is low, according to the research firm. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-chart-prediction-cyclical-bull-rally-last-years-2024-7">This chart maps out the length of previous rallies</a>.</li><li>David Solomon is feeling more bullish about interest rate cuts. The Goldman Sachs CEO, who previously said the Fed would skip rate cuts this year, now believes we could get as many as two. He credits the shift in consumer behavior in the face of inflation <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/next-interest-rate-cut-forecast-goldman-sachs-ceo-david-solomon-2024-7">as a reason for his U-turn</a>.</li><li>Inside Blackstone's summer internship. It's 10 times harder to score a first-year analyst job at Blackstone than it is to get into Harvard. But the easiest way for undergrads to get a foot in the door is through the private equity giant's <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-blackstone-summer-analyst-program-and-internship-2024-7">10-week summer internship program</a>. Two executives walked BI through recruitment, the internship, and how to land a return offer.</li></ol><h2 id="62bb4334-a805-49b4-89b9-d7825f87b766">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="mark and jensen" height="1000" width="2000" msid="112172690" hostid="261" sizebytes="219782"></div><ol><li>Inside the tech industry's most powerful bromance. Mark Zuckerberg and Jensen Huang have a lot in common, and have become increasingly close. But it's not all cozy cookouts and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-zuckerberg-meta-nvidia-jensen-huang-bromance-cooking-2024-4">leather-jacket swaps</a>: Behind their shared experiences and mutual flattery are billions of dollars in deals, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/business-bromance-nvidia-jensen-huang-mark-zuckerberg-siggraph-2024-7">an increasingly tied future</a>.</li><li>The collapse of a Microsoft AI deal is cause for industry-wide concern. A pharmaceutical company stopped using Microsoft's Copilot AI because of high cost and low value, comparing its AI-generated slides to "middle school presentations." <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pharma-cio-cancelled-microsoft-copilot-ai-tool-2024-7">The canceled deal is a warning sign</a> for companies hoping their AI products will catch on with consumers — and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-investors-freaked-out-about-ai-spending-azure-growth-2024-7">for already freaked-out investors</a>.</li><li>The networking queen of New York City's tech and venture scene. Alexa von Tobel is the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/alexa-von-tobel-super-connector-new-york-buzzy-tech-scene-2024-7">superconnector of New York's tech entrepreneurs and investors</a>. Those who work with her say she has a natural extroversion that makes her extremely good at bringing high-powered people together.</li></ol><h2 id="3c244a91-acbf-4e23-8cde-90d1f2a8f4a7">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="One Medical Collage" height="1000" width="2000" msid="112172687" hostid="261" sizebytes="99028"></div><ol><li>A leaked document gives a rare look inside the projected finances of Amazon's big healthcare bet. In December, the company forecast more than $1 billion in losses in 2024 for its healthcare business. But that's an improvement from last year, when it lost $1.28 billion. The tech giant also expected revenue <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-healthcare-one-medical-billion-loss-cost-cutting-profitability-2024-7">to jump 30% to over $3 billion this year</a>.</li><li>Your trip to Starbucks just got shorter. Long lines, plunging sales, and frustrated workers are all contributing to the chain's downwards spiral. Earlier this month, though, it changed the way it runs its cafes — and it could <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/starbucks-reinvented-cafes-managment-plan-lines-waits-sales-2024-7">turn things around for the company and customers alike</a>.</li><li>What to expect when Apple and Meta report earnings. Mark Zuckerberg's company reports Q2 earnings today, and investors will likely <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-q2-earnings-preview-tiktok-uncertainty-and-political-ad-boost-2024-7">focus on AI-investment returns</a>. Meanwhile, Apple reports its third-quarter earnings tomorrow, and analysts are expected to ask questions on the recently delayed Apple Intelligence and the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-q3-earnings-what-to-look-for-ai-china-services-2024-7">iPhone's lagging performance in China</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="b691d3d2-a3d7-4ee3-8890-aa84cf68a80c">In other news</h2><ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/women-men-medicine-drug-reviews-online-health-medical-advice-webmd-2024-7">Worried about starting a new drug? See how women say it works</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-couch-sex-joke-author-speaks-2024-7">The author of the viral joke post about JD Vance having sex with a couch breaks his silence</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-vp-pick-roy-cooper-gretchen-whitmer-rule-selves-out-2024-7">Harris' running mate list is narrowing after 2 top contenders ruled themselves out</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-whatsapp-growth-us-messaging-app-ai-apple-imessage-2024-7/">Meta's $19 billion bid to own messaging in the US gains steam — and AI could give it an edge over Apple's iMessage</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/miu-miu-revenue-jumps-93-gen-z-asia-sales-prada-2024-7">One of Prada's red-hot brands for Gen Z luxury shoppers just posted crazy growth numbers</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coffee-badging-crackdown-rto-rules-must-change-2024-7">Stop the crackdown on coffee-badging — here's the real problem</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/googles-ai-powered-olympics-ad-faces-backlash-scores-viewers-2024-7">Google's AI Olympics ad is drawing jeers online but scores surprisingly well among viewers</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/analyst-says-near-tesla-crash-tesla-shows-fsd-not-ready-2024-7">Tesla keeps touting self-driving but one analyst's near-crash shows it's 'not even close' to autonomy</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/white-dudes-for-harris-twitter-account-elon-musk-donald-trump-2024-7">'White Dudes for Harris' fundraiser thinks Elon Musk might have suspended his account. He's going to keep using Twitter</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ubi-universal-basic-income-ai-risks-destroying-jobs-solutions-2024-7">The tech industry wants to create an AI utopia. Its leaders think Universal Basic Income is the answer</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="265f2581-0e55-4ab6-8ce7-1a67b2d79f37">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>The Fed announces its July interest rate decision. It's expected to hold rates steady today, though analysts believe a rate cut is likely in September.</li><li>Meta, Boeing, Kraft, and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/earnings-calendar">other companies</a> are reporting.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Annie Smith, associate producer, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.

OpenAI's releasing a new AI model soon, and there's a lot at stake

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Welcome back to our Saturday edition! I'm here with a question: Would you ever go on a honeymoon-style trip with your best friend? One reporter <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/honeymoon-worthy-vacation-with-friend-led-to-stronger-bond-2024-3">enjoyed her buddymoon</a> — and found that her 14-year friendship was strengthened. On the agenda today:<ul><li>Kate Middleton was diagnosed with cancer after a surgery. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kate-middleton-cancer-found-during-abdominal-surgery-explained-2024-3">Here's how that happens</a>.</li><li>Bucket-list trip: Braving the Arctic <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/northern-lights-artic-circle-trip-findland-tips-3-2023">to see the northern lights</a>.</li><li>Sam Altman thinks his $180 million <a target="_blank" href="https://businessinsider.com/retro-biosciences-sam-altman-longer-lifespan-2024-3">supplement venture will extend our lifespan</a>.</li><li>Billionaire Steve Ballmer's son reflects on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/steve-ballmer-son-pete-net-worth-generational-wealth-2024-3">life in a high-net-worth family</a>.</li></ul>But first: Social media is making a comeback.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today-sunday-edition">sign up here</a>. Download Insider's app <a target="_blank" href="https://www.insider.com/app">here.</a><div type="image" title="Instagram logo with a crown" height="1000" width="2000" msid="108732024" hostid="261" sizebytes="77700"></div><h3>Dispatch</h3><h2>Social media is getting a second wind</h2>I joined Facebook with much enthusiasm back when they were only approving folks with a .edu email address. Before long, I was using the Mark Zuckerberg-created platform to upload a smattering of unedited photos from my digital camera, find out who was in my classes on campus, and "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-poke-feature-gen-z-2024-3">poke" old high school buddies</a>.Soon my account became a graveyard of photos, now hidden and viewable by "only me." Instead of coming up with pithy and creative — if I do say so myself — statuses, I began doing things IRL instead. I'm not alone: Sharing on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/social-media-dead-instagram-tiktok-bereal-replaced-group-chats-messaging-2023-8">social media has tapered off</a>, Business Insider reported back in 2023, but consuming content hasn't. Now social media platforms — Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and others — are clamoring to get users to stay just a little while longer.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-instagram-stories-reels-made-comeback-beat-tiktok-2024-3">Instagram beat TikTok</a> in downloads last year, mostly thanks to Threads and Reels. And now Facebook's Poke feature is back, and apparently a hit with Gen Z, a demographic that was waning on the platform.It's clear social media isn't giving up without a fight — and right now, it seems we're OK with that.<div type="image" title="Kate Middleton is receiving treatment for cancer." height="720" width="1280" msid="108732027" hostid="261" sizebytes="45732"></div><h2>Kate Middleton's diagnosis</h2>Kate Middleton, the Princess of Wales, revealed yesterday she's been diagnosed with cancer and is undergoing chemotherapy.She said she received the diagnosis while undergoing abdominal surgery in January. One oncologist told BI it's not uncommon for doctors to screen for cancer after invasive surgeries.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kate-middleton-cancer-found-during-abdominal-surgery-explained-2024-3">Get the full rundown here</a>.Also read:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/read-kate-middletons-full-statement-on-her-cancer-diagnosis-2024-3">Read Kate Middleton's full statement on her cancer diagnosis</a></li></ul><div type="image" title="The author standing on snow looking at green northern lights over mountains." height="2813" width="4211" msid="108732028" hostid="261" sizebytes="884830"></div><h2>Your guide to the aurora borealis</h2>BI's reporter traveled to Finland's northernmost municipality, Utsjoki, to check something off her bucket list: catching the northern lights. Nearly 300 miles north of the Arctic Circle, the tiny village offers some of the best chances at seeing the aurora.Her excursion was filled with surprises — like that the lights are less vivid in real life than in photos, and that she only saw them once on a five-night trip.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/northern-lights-artic-circle-trip-findland-tips-3-2023">Read all of her takeaways from Lapland</a>.<div type="image" title="Photo illustration of Sam Altman collaged with clocks, pills, and beakers." height="1334" width="1778" msid="108732030" hostid="261" sizebytes="132778"></div><h2>Sam Altman wants to extend our lives</h2>You may know him for his work with OpenAI, the parent company of ChatGPT. But Altman has another, lesser-known endeavor: Retro Biosciences.The $180 million project has an ambitious goal. By betting big on three antiaging methods, Altman hopes to add 10 healthy, enjoyable years to humans' lives.<a target="_blank" href="https://businessinsider.com/retro-biosciences-sam-altman-longer-lifespan-2024-3">Inside Altman's longevity ambitions</a>.<div type="image" title="Pete Ballmer Headshot" height="1000" width="2000" msid="108732031" hostid="261" sizebytes="34088"></div><h2>Life as a billionaire's son</h2>Growing up, Pete Ballmer knew his family was wealthy — but didn't realize just how rich they really were.Despite being billionaire and former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer's son, Pete says he and his siblings didn't get more expensive Christmas gifts. They didn't get fancy cars. He writes that he even felt a bit ashamed of it, and downplayed his wealth.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/steve-ballmer-son-pete-net-worth-generational-wealth-2024-3">Here's what it's like to grow up (really) rich</a>.<div type="image" title="A television with an interference screen" height="1500" width="2000" msid="108732032" hostid="261" sizebytes="193524"></div><h2>What we're watching this week</h2><ul><li>"Anatomy of a Fall": The Oscar-winning film is now available on Hulu.</li><li>"Palm Royale": Check out the first three episodes of Kristen Wiig's period comedy.</li><li>"3 Body Problem": Watch the highly anticipated new sci-fi epic from the creators of "Game of Thrones," now streaming on Netflix.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-tv-shows-movies-streaming-netflix-hulu-peacock-march-22-24">Check out the full list here.</a></li></ul><h2>More of this week's top reads</h2><ul><li>Her 91-year-old grandma still travels internationally. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/grandmother-longevity-secrets-international-travel-social-life-2024-3">Here are her secrets.</a></li><li>I hate posting on LinkedIn. So I asked experts <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/linkedin-cringe-how-to-post-new-job-hiring-resume-2024-3">how to get it right</a>.</li><li>What it's like to ride <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sri-lanka-train-coast-colombo-ticket-price-route-photos-2024-3">Sri Lanka's $1 coastal train</a>.</li><li>The pros and cons of catching a film at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/went-to-luxury-movie-theater-chain-cinepolis-review-worth-it-2024-3">luxury movie-theater chain Cinépolis</a>.</li><li>How a couple scored a 2.5% mortgage rate <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/couple-got-low-mortgage-when-everyone-getting-high-interest-rate-2024-3">when everyone else got 6%</a>.</li><li>New research confirms it: The worse the economy gets, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recessions-mortality-degrowth-economy-gdp-unemployment-environment-pollution-2024-3">the longer we live</a>.</li><li>Hannah Waddingham told us about her <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hannah-waddingham-tom-cruise-mission-impossible-8-coconut-cake-2024-3">"intense" first meeting with Tom Cruise</a>.</li><li>JetBlue is cutting 20 routes and abandoning five cities — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jetblue-cutting-20-routes-leaving-5-cities-see-list-2024-3">see the list</a>.</li><li>Take a tour of Virgin Voyages' <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/virgin-voyages-valiant-lady-cruise-ship-tour-photos-2023-9">adults-only, 17-deck cruise ship.</a></li></ul>The Insider Today team: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/joi-marie-mckenzie">Joi-Marie McKenzie</a>, editor-in-chief, in New York. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/jordan-parker-erb">Jordan Parker Erb</a>, editor, in New York. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/dan-defrancesco">Dan DeFrancesco</a>, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/lisa-ryan">Lisa Ryan</a>, executive editor, in New York.

It's comeback season for social media

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Hello! Apple's Vision Pro has become the newest tech flex, but wearing it in public <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-vision-pro-how-do-they-look-public-influencer-2024-2">isn't exactly what Apple had in mind</a>. But that hasn't stopped people from trying. If you're wondering what's inside the $3,500 virtual reality headset, a video shows just <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-apple-vision-pro-looks-like-inside-teardown-video-2024-2">how much tech is crammed into it</a>.In today's big story, we're looking at why investors are eyeing an <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/economy-stock-market-rally-federal-reserve-inflation-recession-soft-landing-2024-2">even better outcome for the market than a soft landing</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Gen Z is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/financial-influencers-gen-z-investing-tiktok-youtube-finance-money-content-2024-2">skirting professional advisors for TikTokers</a>.</li><li>Tech: The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fintech-investors-investment-areas-ai-payroll-infrastructure-2024-1">startups focused on financial tech</a> that VCs are most excited about.</li><li>Business: Why Travis Kelce is teaming up with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/travis-kelce-experian-tv-commercials-nfl-taylor-swift-super-bowl-2024-2">one of the biggest credit bureaus in the US</a>.</li></ul>But first, not too cold, not too hot, but just right.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h2>The big story</h2><h3>Market's sweet spot</h3><div type="image" title="Charging Bull Looking Through Torn Page of Financial Newspaper" height="3840" width="5760" msid="107465569" hostid="261" sizebytes="742582"></div>Forget about a soft landing, some market watchers want something just right.For months, investors hoped the Fed's tightening policy would culminate in a soft landing: lowering inflation while avoiding a full-blown recession.The US is nearly there. Most experts believe the Fed will stick the landing as a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-labor-market-unemployment-rate-wage-growth-january-economy-2024-2">stream of strong economic data</a> continues to pour in.But why settle for a soft landing when you can get it all? A so-called <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/goldilocks-economy">Goldilocks economy</a> — where growth remains high while inflation and unemployment stay low — is a possibility <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/economy-stock-market-rally-federal-reserve-inflation-recession-soft-landing-2024-2">some market watchers are floating</a>, Business Insider's Matthew Fox writes.Cooling inflation and a strong jobs report means the Fed has the green light to get more aggressive with its rate cuts, Solita Marcelli, UBS's CIO for global wealth management in the Americas, wrote Monday. The result would be the S&amp;P 500 surging to 5,300 in 2024, finishing the year up 11%.The scenario would be a boon for small-cap companies, many of which have floating-rate debt that would benefit from a flurry of cuts, Marcelli said.<div type="image" title="US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell" height="1392" width="2000" msid="107465572" hostid="261" sizebytes="174080"></div>A Goldilocks economy still hinges on the Fed cutting rates, which has proved fleeting for investors.Fed Chair Jerome Powell crushed investors' dreams of a March rate cut last week, a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-today-fed-chair-powell-march-rate-cuts-2024-2">point he seemed to reiterate on "60 Minutes."</a> The chance of a March rate cut went from 50% last week to about 16% on Monday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.Not to be deterred, the market still believes we'll see the cuts it's been dying for, and more than the central bank currently anticipates. It's banking on the Fed being wrong, but ultimately seeing the error of its ways and accelerating cuts later this year.The market has priced in <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-first-interest-rate-cut-outlook-stock-market-bet-policy-2024-2">six rate cuts for the year</a> despite Powell already signaling the central bank was planning for just <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rates-fed-pauses-increases-december-rate-cuts-powell-inflation-2023-12">three</a>. That suggests it foresees the Fed <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-first-interest-rate-cut-outlook-stock-market-bet-policy-2024-2">making a "policy error,"</a> Bank of America analysts wrote in a note Friday.To be sure, it feels a bit like we're moving the goalposts.Powell has been unwavering in trying to snuff out any chance of inflation roaring back. Banks collapsed because they didn't manage their interest-rate risk, and that still didn't stop Powell from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-raised-interest-rates-again-amid-calls-to-pause-svb-2023-3">raising rates another three times</a>.To suggest he'll take such an aggressive approach to cutting rates after being so cautious seems a bit optimistic.That's not to say there's no chance of the Fed exceeding its three-cut prediction this year. Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff said last month the central bank could cut the rate 15 times… <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-forecast-soft-landing-economy-recession-inflation-rogoff-2024-1">if a deep recession is triggered</a>.<h2>3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, reacts to a video at his keynote address at CES in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S. January 7, 2018." height="2258" width="3500" msid="107465574" hostid="261" sizebytes="190552"></div>1. One of the hottest stocks in the market still has room to grow, Goldman says. Share prices of AI darling Nvidia have a potential 21% upside, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank is feeling bullish thanks to early evidence of AI monetization and talk of increased investment in AI by companies, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-artificial-intelligence-q4-earnings-outlook-semiconductor-chips-nvda-2024-2">among other reasons</a>.2. How things could go wrong for the stock market. Despite being bullish on stocks, BofA equity strategist Savita Subramanian still outlined some big potential risks to investors. Weak demand and layoff news <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-bearish-outlook-record-rally-investing-advice-warning-bofa-2024-2">were some headwinds that gave her pause</a>.3. Gen Z is turning to influencers for help with its finances. A new survey found young people look to TikTok and YouTube over professional advisors for help with their money. A demand for long-form content and young people's distrust of traditional players <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/financial-influencers-gen-z-investing-tiktok-youtube-finance-money-content-2024-2">has led to the trend</a>.<h2>3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Photo illustration of a phone and charts." height="1276" width="1702" msid="107465706" hostid="261" sizebytes="158000"></div>1. Fintechs could still soar in 2024. While venture funding to financial-technology startups fell by 50% in 2023 from 2022, VCs still see a handful of bright spots. Investors said that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fintech-investors-investment-areas-ai-payroll-infrastructure-2024-1">areas like generative AI and payroll providers</a> could take off this year.2. ChatGPT should be "much less lazy now," Sam Altman says. In a post to X, Altman said a new update would fix <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chatgpt-openai-sam-altman-chatbot-less-lazy-after-users-complain-2024-2">ChatGPT's refusal to complete some tasks</a>. Users had been complaining the bot was slacking off and sometimes even issuing sassy responses.3. A Salesforce exec suggested workers who didn't hit a training goal could see financial repercussions. The company set a 2023 goal for all employees to achieve the "Ranger" status on its training platform. A <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/salesforce-exec-email-trailhead-goal-bonus-2024-2">leaked email showed the exec telling staff they better "get going"</a> if they want their stock grant and bonus.<h2>3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Photo collage featuring Travis Kelce, the tight end for the Kansas City Chiefs (87), along with a credit score range icon with an arrow on red." height="900" width="1200" msid="107465708" hostid="261" sizebytes="69518"></div>1. Travis Kelce wants you to check your credit score. The Kansas City Chiefs tight end has partnered with Experian on a new ad campaign encouraging people to check their credit scores. It's probably a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/travis-kelce-experian-tv-commercials-nfl-taylor-swift-super-bowl-2024-2">better deal for Experian than for consumers</a>.2. The US Treasury will send officials to China this week. The New York Times reported that an envoy of department officials is heading to China to help <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/top-us-treasury-officials-delegations-travel-china-ease-economic-tensions-2024-2">iron out economic tensions</a> between the two countries.3. EVs just aren't working. A reliance upon high-priced, luxury EVs fell apart in recent months, and automakers are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/automakers-back-to-the-drawing-board-ev-plans-2024-2">going back to the drawing board</a>. And now it seems like hybrids are back in favor.<h2>In other news</h2><ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/king-charles-diagnosed-with-cancer-buckingham-palace-confirms-2024-2">King Charles diagnosed with cancer shortly after undergoing a prostate procedure</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tiktok-vs-umg-music-ban-indie-music-discovery-popular-songs-2024-2">Indie musicians are celebrating UMG's decision to pull its music off TikTok: 'It's our time to shine baby'</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taylor-swift-celine-dion-controversy-backlash-explained-grammys-2024-2">Why fans think Taylor Swift snubbed Céline Dion at the 2024 Grammys</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-wants-canada-83000-decommissioned-rockets-2024-2">Ukraine is so desperate for arms, it's itching to get its hands on Canada's 83,000 decommissioned rockets</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/snap-new-layoffs-hit-content-moderation-dei-roles-2024-2">Snap's new mass layoffs hit teams across tech, trust, and safety, and an internal analytics team aiding DEI efforts</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nomad-health-layoffs-employees-healthcare-2024-2">Exclusive: Healthcare staffing startup Nomad Health just cut more staff, its third layoff in a year</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cosmetic-treatments-save-time-so-stripper-can-earn-more-2024-2">A stripper and escort who caters to Wall Street clients says she has invested more than $57K in cosmetic treatments</a>.</li></ul><h2>What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Today's earnings: Snap, Spotify, UBS, and other companies <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/earnings-calendar">are reporting today</a>.</li><li>The FAA Administrator will testify to the House Transportation subcommittee after January's Boeing 737 Max 9 blowout.</li></ul>The Insider Today team<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/dan-defrancesco">Dan DeFrancesco</a>, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/hallam-bullock">Hallam Bullock</a>, editor, in London. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/jordan-parker-erb">Jordan Parker Erb</a>, editor, in New York.Get in touch<a target="_blank" rel="noopener" class="insider-today-blue-link" href="mailto:insidertoday@insider.com">insidertoday@insider.com</a>To read unlimited articles, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription">subscribe</a> to Business Insider.

A Goldilocks economy could be coming, but a key piece of the puzzle remains elusive

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Billionaire investor Marc Andreessen posted a mammoth 5000-word techno-optimist manifesto on Monday.</li><li>"We believe any deceleration of AI will cost lives. Deaths that were preventable by the AI that was prevented from existing is a form of murder," wrote Andreessen.</li></ul>Billionaire investor Marc Andreessen published on Monday a mammoth 5,000-word <a href="https://a16z.com/the-techno-optimist-manifesto/">"techno-optimist manifesto,"</a> outlining a long list of views, including the notion that slowing down on AI development is equivalent to murder.<a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315170237-19/critique-techno-optimism-samuel-alexander-jonathan-rutherford" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Techno-optimism</a> is the belief that technology can solve major social and environmental problems.Andreessen wrote that he believes AI is a universal problem solver: "There are scores of common causes of death that can be fixed with AI, from car crashes to pandemics to wartime friendly fire.""We believe any deceleration of AI will cost lives. Deaths that were preventable by the AI that was prevented from existing is a form of murder," wrote Marc Andreessen. In his wide-ranging and fifteen-part manifesto, Andreessen also articulated several other views — like calling out "sustainability," "social responsibility," and "risk management" as the enemy. "Our enemies are not bad people – but rather bad ideas, "Andreessen wrote.Writing about the importance of the free market, Andreessen said: "Love doesn't scale, so the economy can only run on money or force."This isn't the first time that Andreessen has shared his techno-optimist views. He published a blog post in June arguing that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/marc-andreessen-plan-use-ai-save-the-world-regulation-startups-2023-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">"AI will save the world"</a> and that government agencies and those seeking regulation on AI should get out of the way.His views mark a significant contrast from other tech leaders — like <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-ai-pause-openai-gpt4-powerful-development-2023-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Elon Musk</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-extinction-risk-openai-deepmind-anthropic-ceos-sam-altman-2023-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sam Altman</a> — who have warned of the threat that AI poses to society if left unchecked.Andreessen — who is worth $1.8 billion per <a href="https://www.forbes.com/profile/marc-andreessen/?sh=7586e92657aa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Forbes'</a> estimate — is a cofounder and general partner of venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz. This year, his company led a $50 million seed round for AI health startup <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hippocratic-generative-artificial-intelligence-raises-seed-funding-general-catalyst-a16z-2023-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hippocratic AI</a> and a $150 million funding round for chatbot startup <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/23/characterai-valued-at-1-billion-after-150-million-round-from-a16z.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Character.AI</a>. The manifesto carried a disclaimer that the views expressed in it are those of the author, and not the views of a16z.Andreessen and Andreessen Horowitz did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Insider, sent outside regular business hours.

Slowing down on AI will cause preventable deaths &mdash; and that's a form of murder, says Marc Andreessen

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Goldman Sachs says companies with strong balance sheets are not only safe investments today, but also unexpectedly cheap. </li><li>Companies with weaker balance sheets outperformed throughout the just-ended bull market thanks to low interest rates, but that's changing abruptly because it looks like a recession is beginning.</li><li>David Kostin, Goldman's chief US equity strategist, has a comprehensive financial metric to find the companies with the best chance of staying afloat as the economy stalls and spending dries up.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?hprecirc-bullet">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories</a>.</li></ul>The bull market of the 2010s was a great time to invest in companies with weaker balance sheets. And referring to the unprecedented run in the past tense will take some getting used to.For much of the 11-year streak, those companies outperformed "safer" companies with stronger balance sheets. Some were very strong growers, while low interest rates helped keep many others alive by offering traditional financial security, such as less debt and more cash on hand.This chart shows how dramatic that leadership was, and how extreme it grew in recent years - right up until recent months, when views of a slowdown became more prevalent. That's when it started to trend back upward.The very end of that chart shows that - with a recession a <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/economic-recession-forecast-coronavirus-fuel-us-gdp-contraction-market-goldman-2020-3-1028999426">presumed certainty in the months ahead</a>, or <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/coronavirus-recession-already-hit-us-economy-pandemic-bank-america-gdp-2020-3-1029012857">possibly underway already</a> - companies with stronger balance sheets now look much more appealing. And with few signs the market turmoil will slow down, and amid clear evidence the economy is headed for a downturn, Kostin and his team think this dynamic will last for a while.In the meantime, they've identified a universe of stocks that fit the bill. They're the strongest and safest companies in the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500" target="_blank" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500</a>, according to a so-called <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/altman.asp">Altman Z-Score</a>, which evaluates how profitable, liquid, solvent, and leveraged each company is.The score is based on a series of financial ratios: Working capital to assets, retained earnings to assets, operating income to assets, leverage ratio, and sales to assets.A higher Altman Z-Score means a company is in better financial position, and experts say a low score of about 1.8 means a company has a high probability of going bankrupt. Kostin says the average company in the S&amp;P 500 has a score of 2.8.The 15 companies listed below are ranked from lowest to highest based on their Altman Z-Score. This short list of stocks starts with companies whose scores are four times as high as the average S&amp;P 500 company.Get the latest Goldman Sachs stock price<a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stock/GS-Quote"> here.</a>

GOLDMAN SACHS: Buy these 15 cheap, cash-rich stocks in order to dominate the market, even as we barrel towards recession

REUTERS<ul class="summary-list"><li>Goldman Sachs' US equity chief says companies with strong financial positions and inexpensive valuations can provide some of the safety investors crave in a "chaotic" stock market.</li><li>David Kostin points out that most companies haven't updated their forecasts to account for the economic contraction caused by the COVID-19 outbreak.</li><li>While that might seem like a secondary consideration right now, companies will start reporting their earnings and updating forecasts in less than a month, and Wall Street will react when that happens.</li><li>That means this might be the ideal time for investors to get their portfolios in order.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?hprecirc-bullet">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories</a>.</li></ul>If corporate earnings are the main source of fuel for the stock market, it's become almost impossible to tell how much gas is in the tank.With the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-virus-everything-we-know-deadly-2019-ncov-wuhan-spread-2020-1">COVID-19 pandemic</a> spreading around the world, with and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/countries-on-lockdown-coronavirus-italy-2020-3">one out of every five people living under some form of lockdown</a>, typical market milestones like earnings might seem quaint. But US earnings reports will start in about a month, and Wall Street has less idea than usual what to expect."Despite the sharp slowdown, few companies have reduced or withdrawn EPS guidance for 1Q, 2Q, or full-year 2020," said David Kostin, chief US equity strategist for Goldman Sachs.With a recession looming, a lot of forecasts will be slashed. And Kostin adds that stock buybacks, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/15-stocks-to-avoid-as-share-buybacks-fade-goldman-sachs-2019-10">a critical part of the 2009-2020 bull market</a>, will also be sharply curtailed.It's difficult to get an exact sense of what all of that will do to stocks, which makes it hard to take into account when investing. But Kostin says it's still possible to find the safest companies to bet on. They share these three key characteristics:<h2>(1) Size and liquidity</h2>"In uncertain times, investors seek liquidity, which in practical terms means an above-average market cap," Kostin said.For that reason he's zeroed in on companies that are large even compared to the S&amp;P 500, where the smallest company is worth about $3 billion and the median company is worth $16 billion.Just as important, they're more liquid than the typical S&amp;P 500 company as well.<h2>(2) Balance sheet strength</h2>Kostin notes that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/15-stock-picks-to-buy-recession-strong-balance-sheet-gs-2020-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">companies with stronger balance sheets</a> are already outperforming in a major way, which is a big reversal from the pattern that held for most of the 10-year bull market."As liquidity in the credit markets falls, companies with the strongest balance sheets are in the best position to weather the negative cash flow resulting from the economic shutdown," he wrote. He identified them based on Altman Z-Scoring, which blends five financial metrics to evaluate each company's risk of insolvency.<h2>(3) Margin of safety</h2>The group got creative to find the companies with the most to gain as GDP slows and earnings forecasts are slashed.To determine each company's margin of safety, the Goldman team looked at consensus earnings per share estimates for 2021 and reduced them by 20%. That reduced earnings number was compared to the stock's closing price on March 20 to calculate a kind of worst case price to earnings ratio.That worst case number was then evaluated against to the companies' P/E ratios from the market's last cycle low, which was on March 9, 2009. Comparing the 2021 and 2009 P/E ratios allowed Kostin and company to find a few stocks that look even less expensive than they did during the last major market crisis."Simply put, in the words of Ben Graham, these companies offer investors a "Margin of Safety" from a valuation perspective that is certainly appropriate for the current chaotic investment environment," Kostin wrote.Without further ado, here are 14 such stocks, ranked from smallest to largest based on the size of that discount. The list ultimately highlights which stocks might have the most to gain, and the least to lose.Get the latest <a href="/coronavirus-covid19">coronavirus analysis and research</a> from Business Insider Intelligence on how COVID-19 is impacting businesses.

GOLDMAN SACHS: Buy these 14 stocks, which all possess the 3 most important qualities for shielding against coronavirus fallout

<a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7f/Henry_VIII_Chatsworth.jpg">upload.wikimedia.org</a>King Henry VIIIThe days of easy money are over.And with the Federal Reserve expected to hike interest rates later this month, equity investors are seeking out companies well-equipped to withstand tighter lending conditions.In other words, they want to buy stocks with strong balance sheets - ones with easy access to liquidity and minimal debt exposure. And they've already started.Shares of firms with strong balance sheets are up 11% since the start of the year, outpacing their flimsier brethren by 3.5 percentage points, according to data compiled by Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg. That's the widest spread in 14 months for a period of that length.The recent outperformance has helped the strong balance sheet group close the gap on its weaker peers, which have piggybacked off an unprecedented wave of debt financing to bigger gains throughout the eight-year bull market.Business Insider / Andy Kiersz, data from Goldman Sachs / BloombergThe accommodative lending conditions, combined with an improving economic picture, created ideal conditions for traders looking to take on the added risk of companies with less-than-stellar finances. And it paid off. The weak balance sheet group rallied 50 percent in 2013, beating the 30 percent advance in the S&amp;P 500 that was itself the best return since 1997.But now that the increasingly hawkish Fed has started to tighten, the days of easy gains in highly-leveraged stocks appear to be winding down. After all, higher-quality companies are better suited to absorb market shocks, and don't experience as much volatility.The strong balance sheet basket maintained by Goldman contains 50 companies across eight core S&amp;P 500 industries that rank highest in measures comparing equity to total liabilities and earnings to assets, compiled in a gauge known as the Altman Z-Score.As of an update in January, the basket contained Facebook and Alphabet, which make up half of the so-called FANG group that's led gains in major US indices this year. The index also held such companies as Starbucks, Monster Beverage, Exxon Mobil, Bristol-Myers Squibb and 3M.Get the latest Goldman Sachs stock price<a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stock/GS-Quote"> here.</a> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ian-bremmer-on-the-biggest-takeaways-from-trumps-first-foreign-trip-2017-5">'Melania needs to get with the program': Ian Bremmer explains the biggest takeaways from Trump's first foreign trip</a></h3> Please enable Javascript to watch this video

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