<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image"><img src="http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/50521d5369bedd1d58000000/seals.jpg" border="0" alt="SEALs" /><a href="http://www.dvidshub.net/image/176727/combined-hasty-traffic-control-point-kirkuk-iraq#.UEoZQ9BrPfg">DvidsHub</a></div></div></div>
The U.S. nabbed the Al Qaeda leader believed to be behind the 1998 embassy attacks in Africa on Saturday.
On the same day, a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/navy-seal-team-somalia-raid-2013-10">Navy SEAL team raided a house full of Al-Shabab militants</a> two weeks after the terror group's deadly attack on a Nairobi shopping mall.
We think it's safe to say that America's elite - the Navy SEALs - have been keeping busy.
Thanks to Matt Bissonette, a SEAL that was on the Bin Laden raid and wrote the book No Easy Day, we know what they likely brought with them.
In his book, he details getting ready for deployment in Norfolk, Va., when he asks a more experienced SEAL what he should bring. The senior SEAL stopped, looked at his new teammate and said: "Dude, what do you think you need to bring for deployment? Load it ... Bring what you think you need."
The following list is what Bissonnette said, in the book, he needed.

18 Things Navy SEALs Won't Leave Home Without

<div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/54ef11dd6bb3f7bf4086bcc9-541-405/jihadi-john.jpg?maxX=480" border="0" alt="JIhadi John" width="480">Screenshot"Jihadi John"</img></div></div>The British Islamic State militant known as "Jihadi John" was <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/jihadi-john-the-islamic-state-killer-behind-the-mask-is-a-young-londoner/2015/02/25/d6dbab16-bc43-11e4-bdfa-b8e8f594e6ee_story.html?tid=hpModule_04941f10-8a79-11e2-98d9-3012c1cd8d1e&amp;hpid=z10">identified Thursday</a> as Mohammed Emwazi by a report in The Washington Post.The Post reports that Emwazi, who is believed to be responsible for multiple executions of Western hostages, became radicalized after run-ins with British intelligence officials.But questions remains about whether UK security services inadvertently radicalized Emwazi or simply recognized his potential for radicalization."Jihadi John" has appeared masked, but speaking with his British accent, in ISIS hostage-beheading videos, leading some who knew him before he left for Syria in 2012 to identify him to the newspaper.A senior British official <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/27/world/europe/jihadi-john-mohammed-emwazi-identified.html?smid=tw-share&amp;_r=0">confirmed</a> his identity to The New York Times.Emwazi, 27, was reportedly born in Kuwait. He was from a "well-to-do" family, lived in London, and was described as polite and stylish. He is also educated, with a degree in computer programming, according to the Post.Emwazi occasionally prayed at a mosque and was known to adhere to his faith while he lived in London, but it wasn't until he planned a post-college graduation safari trip to Tanzania that he started to radicalize, sources said.He and two friends were detained in mid-2009 once they landing in Dar es Salaam. They were then held overnight and then deported, according to the Post.Emwazi claimed that a British intelligence officer accused him of trying to travel to Somalia, where the militant group Al Shabab, an ally of Al Qaeda, is based.Emwazi later returned to his native Kuwait and got a job at a computer company. He landed on the radar of British intelligence officials again in 2010, when they detained him and searched his belongings the day before he was due to fly back to Kuwait. He was prevented from returning there.He wrote in an email to Qureshi that he felt "like a prisoner ... a person imprisoned &amp; controlled by security service men, stopping me from living my new life in my birthplace &amp; country, Kuwait."<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5453c08369beddef28bd6af5-1200-800/455143258.jpg" border="0" alt="London Skyline">Oli Scarff/Getty ImagesLondon</img></div></div></div>One of Emwazi's friends told the Post that he was "upset and wanted to start a life elsewhere" outside of London. "He at some stage reached the point where he was really just trying to find another way to get out."Emwazi was also reportedly unable to travel to Saudi Arabia, where he wanted to teach English.Around this time, other signs of his radicalization started to show. When a court in the US sentenced an Al Qaeda operative who murdered Americans in Afghanistan, Emwazi reportedly said that he "heard the upsetting news regarding our sister," noting "this should only keep us firmer towards fighting for freedom and justice!"The last contact Qureshi reportedly had with Emwazi was in January 2012.Qureshi said: "This is a young man who was ready to exhaust every single kind of avenue within the machinery of the state to bring a change for his personal situation." He said he thought "actions were taken to criminalize [Emwazi] and he had no way to do something against these actions."However, some journalists and experts are raising doubts about the notion that security services were the defining factor in Emwazi gravitation toward ISIS (aka IS, ISIL, Daesh):<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">WaPo interpretation of Emwazi's trajectory reminds of Scahill on Awklaki. State pressure -&gt; radicalisation. Not sure. <a href="http://t.co/WDY2ifCoBi">http://t.co/WDY2ifCoBi</a>- Shashank Joshi (@shashj) <a href="https://twitter.com/shashj/status/570913878382653440">February 26, 2015</a></blockquote><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">So Emwazi hangs around with an al-Shabab terrorist. Then is "incensed" when he's not allowed to go to Kuwait. Right. <a href="http://t.co/bjlHFDFFUS">http://t.co/bjlHFDFFUS</a>- Shashank Joshi (@shashj) <a href="https://twitter.com/shashj/status/570931387596980224">February 26, 2015</a></blockquote><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">Mohammed Emwazi as Rorschach test: Did the state radicalize him? Or did the state correctly ID a radical? <a href="http://t.co/G0zu9PkjKK">http://t.co/G0zu9PkjKK</a>- Andrew Exum (@ExumAM) <a href="https://twitter.com/ExumAM/status/570912692132818944">February 26, 2015</a></blockquote><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">Just as I suspected, people are already rolling out their Jump To Conclusions Mats regarding the motives and radicalization of Emwazi.- Andrew Exum (@ExumAM) <a href="https://twitter.com/ExumAM/status/570916472303845376">February 26, 2015</a></blockquote><script async="" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8" type="text/javascript"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">The Guardian almost makes UK man behind ISIS beheadings into a victim of persecution <a href="http://t.co/RYakh72R0A">http://t.co/RYakh72R0A</a>- Mike Doran (@Doranimated) <a href="https://twitter.com/Doranimated/status/570915222199934976">February 26, 2015</a></blockquote>Yaroslav Trofimov <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/islamic-states-scariest-success-attracting-western-newcomers-1424932279">wrote in The Wall Street Journal</a> on Thursday that the "Islamic State's ability to lure thousands of Westerners is unprecedented in modern history."Trofimov explained that many of these "newly baked jihadists" are frustrated with their own countries and have "embraced Islamic State's genocidal cult simply because it is the most obvious counterpoint to the West."<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/54e5135beab8ea4126f8ab64-840-620/isis map.jpg" border="0" alt="isis map"><a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2015/02/what-isis-really-wants/384980/">via The Atlantic</a>This map, adapted from the work of the Institute for the Study of War, shows the territory under the ISIS caliphate's control as of January 15, along with areas it has attacked.</img></div></div></div>Thomas Hegghammer, director of terrorism research at the Norwegian <keyword id="6354810" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="Defense">Defense</keyword> Research Establishment, told the Journal: "It is fundamentally the same malaise that is also inspiring the far-left activists. A lot of young people have the same idea that the capitalism-centric Western system is not for them, and that another society is being set up."ISIS, which has claimed large swaths of Iraq and Syria, is trying to build an Islamic state ostensibly governed by a 7th-century interpretation of sharia law.Thousands of Westerners are thought to have traveled to the Middle East to join Islamist groups. <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-headphones-tricks-2015-2">14 things you didn't know your iPhone headphones could do</a></h3> <div> <div> <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="o2OGM3czpWcydnvhjbkDBd6feXPuExiD" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> <script> if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; } RunFunctions.push(function() { var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', 'o2OGM3czpWcydnvhjbkDBd6feXPuExiD',{ autoplay: 'false' }); }); </script> <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div> </div> <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script> </div>

Questions surround British ISIS executioner Jihadi John's path to radicalization

<img class="float_right" src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/545be0a5eab8ea4a28d0d994-1200-800/rtr31iif.jpg?maxX=600" border="0" alt="RTR31IIF" width="600">The United Arab Emirates is flexing its military muscle in a chaotic, post-Arab Spring Middle East.</img>
What was once a nation with a limited presence on the international stage is acquiring advanced weaponry, instituting universal military service, and expanding its fleet of fighter jets and heavy vehicles.
A country of less than 10 million citizens has even proven willing frequently to use military force around the region.
The biggest sign of this came in August, when the UAE cooperated with Egypt to <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-uae-aircraft-bombed-islamists-in-libya-us-says-2014-8">bomb</a> Islamist militias vying for the Libyan capital; the Emirates had contributed <a href="http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/03/25/142959.html">a dozen aircraft</a> to the international campaign that helped oust Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi back in 2011. Also in 2011, it contributed troops to the multi-national force that <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-12729786">crushed a peaceful uprising in Bahrain in 201</a>1 and the country is involved in anti-ISIS operations as well.
The UAE had the <a href="http://www.sipri.org/googlemaps/milex_top_15_2013_exp_map.html">15th-highest military expenditures</a> of any country in the world in 2013 according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Its military spending has nearly doubled in the last ten years; behind Saudi Arabia it enjoys the second biggest <keyword id="6354810" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="Defense">defense</keyword> budget of the oil-rich Persian Gulf states at more than $14 billion.
It's also on pace to become <a href="http://www.thenational.ae/uae/uae-defence-imports-to-double-to-3bn-by-2015">the world's third-largest defense importer</a> in 2015.
A network of monarchical city states that includes Dubai and Abu Dhabi is now <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/most-powerful-militaries-in-the-middle-east-2014-8">the rising military power in the Middle East.</a>
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/most-powerful-militaries-in-the-middle-east-2014-8"></a><img class="full" src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/545a601669bedd917c8b456a-1200-800/uae f16 f-16 french army military exercise.jpg" border="0" alt="UAE F16 F 16 French army Military Exercise" style="color: #000000;">The UAE has backed up its military expansion with an assertive and independent-minded foreign policy.</img>
Neither Egypt nor the UAE informed the United States of the anti-Islamist air strikes in Libya, attacks which AFP <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-uae-aircraft-bombed-islamists-in-libya-us-says-2014-8">reported</a> "signaled a step toward direct action by regional Arab states that previously have fought proxy wars in Libya, Syria and Iraq in a struggle for power and influence."
At the same time, the US working with UAE as an ally in the fight against ISIS. It's one of <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/23/world/meast/syria-airstrikes-countries-involved/">five</a> Arab nations to contribute to bombing efforts against the group, and the country hosts Australian fighter jets on its territory. The US also <a href="http://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RS21852.pdf">bases aircraft</a> at Al Dhafra airbase, outside of Abu Dhabi.
The Emirates are involved in intelligence efforts to counter ISIS' expansion. Last week the country's foreign minister, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan, <a href="http://www.defensenews.com/article/20141102/DEFREG04/311020011/Is-Islamic-State-Group-Getting-Into-Piracy-Business-">warned</a> of a potentially growing link between ISIS and al-Shabab, an Al Qaeda subsidiary operating in the Horn of Africa.
"As groups like Daesh [Islamic State] develop ties to criminal networks and arms networks like al-Shabab, it is essential that we prevent them from expanding their operations into the sea and threaten vital channels such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, Bab al Mandab and the Gulf of Aden," he said at a conference on counter-piracy in Dubai.
<img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/545bca5deab8eaee56d0d994-1200-800/uae opening ceremony of defence exhibition abu dhabi.jpg" border="0" alt="UAE opening ceremony of defence exhibition Abu Dhabi">The UAE, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait are even in talks to form a coalition "not intended to intervene in Iraq or Syria but to act separately to address other extremist hot spots," according to the <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/nov/3/egypt-gulf-arab-allies-eye-anti-militant-alliance/?page=1">AP</a>. Budding conflicts cited by anonymous Egyptian military officials included Libya and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-houthis-take-over-in-yemen-2014-10">Yemen</a>, where an Iranian-armed Shi'ite militia has taken over the capital.</img>
Iran actually helps explain why the UAE has expanded its military so rapidly.
The UAE is mostly thought of as an economic power - Dubai is a center of world finance and the UAE has oil and gas deposits along with some of the busiest ports in the Middle East. But it's just across the Persian Gulf from Iran, a country with which it actually has a <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/04/201241610277611428.html">number of outstanding border disputes</a>.
The UAE's <a href="http://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/page/trade_register.php">purchase of new ships and aircraft from the US</a>, an upgrade of its F-16 force - which now boasts some of the most advanced versions of that aircraft in use anywhere in the world - and its <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/21/us-airshow-dubai-fighters-idUSBRE9AK14Z20131121">interest in the F-35 fifth-generation fighter jet</a> may give it a qualitative military edge over its much larger and geopolitically meddlesome neighbor.
The UAE could be also be using its military buildup to project power and jostle for greater prestige in the wider global community. That could explain why Abu Dhabi has such vaunted ambitions around one other traditional marker of national greatness: space exploration. In July the country announced that it would create a <a href="http://time.com/2994926/middle-east-mars-mission/">space agency</a> by 2021 and planned on sending a probe to Mars.
<img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/545beac1ecad04290b028e58-1200-800/rtr31i2j.jpg" border="0" alt="RTR31I2J" style="color: #000000;" />
But the Emirates might be looking a bit closer to home, too.
The Arab Spring proved that none of the region's leaders were totally safe from internal turmoil - and demonstrated that the Middle East's political and security climate could shift in ways that almost no one can predict.
<img class="float_left" src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/545a60a0eab8ea281b8b456a-600-409/uae rifle exhibition abu dhabi.jpg" border="0" alt="UAE rifle exhibition Abu Dhabi" />
The UAE has used a degree of internal oppression to solidify its situation in an unstable region, arresting <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-25824395">dozens of Islamist activists</a>, and exiling secular voices of dissent, like the once Dubai-based Arab Spring activist <a href="https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2014/10/21/uae-tried-silence-popular-arab-spring-activist/">Iyad al-Baghdadi</a>. 
The country's conservative rulers see Islamists as a threat to the existing state system in the Middle East, which explains the UAE's willingness to carry out airstrikes against militants in Libya and Syria - and its hostility towards Islamist parties at home.
Also on the domestic front, the UAE introduced <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-united-arab-emirates-is-rapidly-militarizing-2014-6">mandatory conscription</a> this past June for males between the ages of 18-30. Those with a high school education must serve for nine months, and those without for a full two years.
The UAE is an autocracy in a time when no Middle Eastern government's rule seems totally secure. And it's a fairly prosperous country in a region where threats can emerge without warning. 
Its rapid militarization and assertive security policy is a way of keeping its edge in this uncertain environment.

This Is The Most Powerful Military You've Never Heard Of

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/5275a3faeab8ea6d23d16dcc-1200-924/barack-obama-273.jpg" border="0" alt="Barack Obama" />AP</div></div></div>This will not go over well for the <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3uU_mCNcKM">2009 Nobel Peace Prize winner</a>.
According to the new book "<a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1594204403?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creativeASIN=1594204403&amp;linkCode=xm2&amp;tag=thewaspos09-20" data-xslt="_http">Double Down</a>," in which journalists Mark Halperin and John Heilemann chronicle the 2012 presidential election, President Barack Obama told his aides that he's "really good at killing people" while discussing drone strikes.
Peter Hamby of The Washington Post reported the nugget in <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/review-double-down-on-the-2012-election-by-mark-halperin-and-john-heilemann/2013/11/01/8bf4f050-3fdd-11e3-a751-f032898f2dbc_story.html">his review of the book</a>.
The claim by the commander-in-chief is as indisputable as it is grim.
Obama oversaw the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/lieutenant-colonel-davis-blows-the-lid-off-the-official-story-on-afghanistan-2012-4">2009 surge</a> in Afghanistan, <a href="http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/10/predator-libya/">145 Predator drone strikes</a> in NATO's 2011 Libya operations, the May 2012 raid that <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/02/world/asia/osama-bin-laden-is-killed.html?pagewanted=all">killed Osama bin Laden</a>, and drone strikes that <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/chief-of-taliban-in-pakistan-killed-us-drone-2013-11">killed leader of the Pakistani Taliban leader</a> and <a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-somalia-shabab-20131029,0,3771061.story#axzz2jXd5bdbT">a senior member</a> of the Somali-based militant group al-Shabab this week.
His administration also <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/05/22/world/DRONES.html">expanded</a> the drone war: There have been <a href="http://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/category/projects/drones/">326 drone strikes</a> in Pakistan, <a href="http://natsec.newamerica.net/drones/yemen/analysis">93</a> in Yemen, and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/02/world/africa/02somalia.html?pagewanted=all">several</a> in Somalia, compared to a total of <a href="http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/story/2012-06-12/drones-kill-Qaeda-terrorists/55556800/1">52</a> under George Bush. Two of those strikes killed American-born al-Qaeda propagandist <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2011/oct/01/world/la-fg-awlaki-killed-20111001">Anwar al-Awlaki</a> and his American-born <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/18/opinion/the-drone-that-killed-my-grandson.html">16-year-old son</a> within two weeks.
Under Obama U.S. <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/pain-continues-after-war-for-american-drone-pilot-a-872726.html">drone operators</a> began practicing "signature strikes," a tactic in which targets are chosen based on <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/top-pakistani-leaders-secretly-backed-cia-drone-campaign-secret-documents-show/2013/10/23/15e6b0d8-3beb-11e3-b6a9-da62c264f40e_story.html">patterns of suspicious behavior</a> and the identities of those to be killed aren't necessarily known. The administration counts all "<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/29/world/obamas-leadership-in-war-on-al-qaeda.html?pagewanted=1">military-age males</a>" in a strike zone as combatants.
Furthermore, the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-drone-tweets-reveal-double-tap-plan-2012-12">disturbing trend</a> of the "double tap" - bombing the same place in quick succession and often<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/drone-double-tap-first-responders-2012-9"> hitting first responders</a> - has become <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-drones-bomb-civilian-rescuers-2013-7">common practice</a>. 
Needless to say, a lot of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/npr-catches-leon-panetta-in-an-apparent-lie-about-civilian-casualties-from-drones-2013-2">innocent people</a> have <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/john-brennans-false-claim-about-drone-casualties-2013-1">been killed</a>.
Obama has also embraced the expansion of capture/kill missions by Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) after it developed into the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-rise-of-jsoc-in-dirty-wars-2013-4">primary counterterrorism tool</a> of the Bush administration.
One JSOC operator told investigative journalist Jeremy Scahill, author of "<a href="http://www.amazon.com/Dirty-Wars-Jeremy-Scahill/dp/1846688507/ref=sr_1_1_title_2_pap?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1373919446&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=Dirty+Wars%3A+The+World+Is+A+Battlefield">Dirty Wars: The World Is A Battlefield</a>," that operations became "harder, faster, quicker with the full support of the White House" under Obama.
Scahill, who also <a href="https://itunes.apple.com/us/movie/dirty-wars/id659803046">made a "Dirty Wars" documentary</a>, told <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/52100170/#.UnWiCWSTizY">NBC News</a> that Obama will "go down in history as the president who legitimized and systematized a process by which the United States asserts the right to conduct assassination operations around the world."
So it is true that President Obama is "really good at killing people," but he has demonstrated that is not necessarily noble.

Last Year President Obama Reportedly Told His Aides That He's 'Really Good At Killing People'

<div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/545be0a5eab8ea4a28d0d994-1200-800/rtr31iif.jpg?maxX=600" border="0" alt="RTR31IIF" width="600">ReutersAbu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan (C) watches the closing ceremony during joint military manoeuvres between the UAE and the French army in the desert of Abu Dhabi on May 2, 2012.</img></div></div>The United Arab Emirates is flexing its military muscle in a chaotic, post-Arab Spring Middle East.
What was once a nation with a limited presence on the <keyword id="6356001" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">international</keyword> stage is acquiring advanced weaponry, instituting universal military service, and expanding its fleet of fighter jets and heavy vehicles.
A country of less than 10 million citizens has even proven willing to frequently use military force around the region.
The biggest sign of this came in August, when the UAE cooperated with Egypt to <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-uae-aircraft-bombed-islamists-in-libya-us-says-2014-8">bomb</a> Islamist militias vying for the Libyan capital; the Emirates had contributed <a href="http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/03/25/142959.html">a dozen aircraft</a> to the international campaign that helped oust Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi back in 2011. Also in 2011, it contributed troops to the multi-national force that <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-12729786">crushed a peaceful uprising in Bahrain in 201</a>1 and the country is involved in anti-ISIS operations as well.
The UAE had the <a href="http://www.sipri.org/googlemaps/milex_top_15_2013_exp_map.html">15th-highest military expenditures</a> of any country in the world in 2013 according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Its military spending has nearly doubled in the last ten years; behind Saudi Arabia it enjoys the second biggest <keyword id="6354810" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="Defense">defense</keyword> budget of the oil-rich Persian Gulf states at more than $14 billion.
It's also on pace to become <a href="http://www.thenational.ae/uae/uae-defence-imports-to-double-to-3bn-by-2015">the world's third-largest defense importer</a> in 2015.
A network of monarchical city states that includes Dubai and Abu Dhabi is now <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/most-powerful-militaries-in-the-middle-east-2014-8">the rising military power in the Middle East.</a>
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/most-powerful-militaries-in-the-middle-east-2014-8"></a><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table full"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/545a601669bedd917c8b456a-1200-800/uae f16 f-16 french army military exercise.jpg" border="0" alt="UAE F16 F 16 French army Military Exercise" style="color: #000000;">ReutersSmoke is seen after United Arab Emirates F-16 fighter jets fired missiles during joint military manoeuvres with the French army in the desert of Abu Dhabi May 2, 2012.</img></div></div></div>The UAE has backed up its military expansion with an assertive and independent-minded foreign policy.
Neither Egypt nor the UAE informed the United States of the anti-Islamist air strikes in Libya, attacks which AFP <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-uae-aircraft-bombed-islamists-in-libya-us-says-2014-8">reported</a> "signaled a step toward direct action by regional Arab states that previously have fought proxy wars in Libya, Syria and Iraq in a struggle for power and influence."
At the same time, the US working with UAE as an ally in the fight against ISIS. It's one of <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/23/world/meast/syria-airstrikes-countries-involved/">five</a> Arab nations to contribute to bombing efforts against the group, and the country hosts Australian fighter jets on its territory. The US also <a href="http://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RS21852.pdf">bases aircraft</a> at Al Dhafra airbase, outside of Abu Dhabi.
The Emirates are involved in intelligence efforts to counter ISIS' expansion. Last week the country's foreign minister, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan, <a href="http://www.defensenews.com/article/20141102/DEFREG04/311020011/Is-Islamic-State-Group-Getting-Into-Piracy-Business-">warned</a> of a potentially growing link between ISIS and al-Shabab, an Al Qaeda subsidiary operating in the Horn of Africa.
"As groups like Daesh [Islamic State] develop ties to criminal networks and arms networks like al-Shabab, it is essential that we prevent them from expanding their operations into the sea and threaten vital channels such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, Bab al Mandab and the Gulf of Aden," he said at a conference on counter-piracy in Dubai.
<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/545bca5deab8eaee56d0d994-1200-800/uae opening ceremony of defence exhibition abu dhabi.jpg" border="0" alt="UAE opening ceremony of defence exhibition Abu Dhabi">Ben Job/ReutersMembers of the United Arab Emirates' armed forces participate in the opening ceremony of the International Defence Exhibition and Conference (IDEX) on Feb. 17, 2013.</img></div></div></div>The UAE, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are even in talks to form a coalition "not intended to intervene in Iraq or Syria but to act separately to address other extremist hot spots," according to the <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/nov/3/egypt-gulf-arab-allies-eye-anti-militant-alliance/?page=1">AP</a>. Budding conflicts cited by anonymous Egyptian military officials included Libya and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-houthis-take-over-in-yemen-2014-10">Yemen</a>, where an Iranian-armed Shi'ite militia has taken over the capital.
Iran actually helps explain why the UAE has expanded its military so rapidly.
The UAE is mostly thought of as an economic power - Dubai is a center of world finance and the UAE has oil and gas deposits along with some of the busiest ports in the Middle East. But it's just across the Persian Gulf from Iran, a country with which it actually has a <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/04/201241610277611428.html">number of outstanding border disputes</a>.
The UAE's <a href="http://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/page/trade_register.php">purchase of new ships and aircraft from the US</a>, an upgrade of its F-16 force - which now boasts some of the most advanced versions of that aircraft in use anywhere in the world - and its <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/21/us-airshow-dubai-fighters-idUSBRE9AK14Z20131121">interest in the F-35 fifth-generation fighter jet</a> may give it a qualitative military edge over its much larger and geopolitically meddlesome neighbor.
The UAE could be also be using its military buildup to project power and jostle for greater prestige in the wider global community. That could explain why Abu Dhabi has such vaunted ambitions around one other traditional marker of national greatness: space exploration. In July the country announced that it would create a <a href="http://time.com/2994926/middle-east-mars-mission/">space agency</a> by 2021 and planned on sending a probe to Mars.
<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/545beac1ecad04290b028e58-1200-800/rtr31i2j.jpg" border="0" alt="RTR31I2J" style="color: #000000;">ReutersFrench-made Mirage 2000 and U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets of the United Arab Emirates forces take part in joint military maneuvres with the French army in the desert of Abu Dhabi May 2, 2012. </img></div></div></div>
But the Emirates might be looking a bit closer to home, too.
The Arab Spring proved that none of the region's leaders were totally safe from internal turmoil - and demonstrated that the Middle East's political and security climate could shift in ways that almost no one can predict.
<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_left"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/545a60a0eab8ea281b8b456a-600-409/uae rifle exhibition abu dhabi.jpg" border="0" alt="UAE rifle exhibition Abu Dhabi">Warren Little/Getty ImagesA visitor is pictured looking at assault rifles during the Abu Dhabi 2014 International Hunting &amp; Equestrian Exhibition on Sept. 11, 2014.</img></div></div></div>
The UAE has used a degree of internal oppression to solidify its situation in an unstable region, arresting <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-25824395">dozens of Islamist activists</a>, and exiling secular voices of dissent, like the once Dubai-based Arab Spring activist <a href="https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2014/10/21/uae-tried-silence-popular-arab-spring-activist/">Iyad al-Baghdadi</a>. 
The country's conservative rulers see Islamists as a threat to the existing state system in the Middle East, which explains the UAE's willingness to carry out airstrikes against militants in Libya and Syria - and its hostility towards Islamist parties at home.
Also on the domestic front, the UAE introduced <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-united-arab-emirates-is-rapidly-militarizing-2014-6">mandatory conscription</a> this past June for males between the ages of 18-30. Those with a high school education must serve for nine months, and those without for a full two years.
The UAE is an autocracy in a time when no Middle Eastern government's rule seems totally secure. And it's a fairly prosperous country in a region where threats can emerge without warning. 
Its rapid militarization and assertive security policy is a way of keeping its edge in this uncertain environment.

Why The United Arab Emirates Is The Middle East's Rising Military Power

<div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image on-image"><img src="http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/52499c5aeab8ea896ffa799e-486-365/white-widow-samantha.jpg?maxX=480" border="0" alt="White Widow Samantha" width="480" />via Interpol</div></div>More reports are coming out that the fugitive British woman known as the White Widow was involved in the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/gunfire-and-explosions-at-nairobi-mall-as-kenya-hostage-crisis-continues-2013-9">Sep. 21 attack by Islamic terrorists at the Westgate Mall</a> in Nairobi, <keyword id="6360004" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Kenya">Kenya</keyword> that left 67 people dead. 
Samantha Lewthewaite <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/white-widow-samantha-lewthwaite-smeared-face-in-blood-to-flee-nairobi-terror-mall-29619912.html">was the wife of suicide bomber Germaine Lindsay</a>, a man who blew himself up on July 7, 2005, at London's King's Cross subway station killing 26 people. Initially, she denounced her husband's attack, only later to flee the country with investigators on her trail.
Immediately following the attack, security personnel speculated if Samantha Lewthewaite was involved, as she had been previously <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-the-white-widow-2013-9">suspected of defecting to and becoming a leader in Somalian militant group al-Shabab</a>, which took credit for the attack. Within days, Interpol had issued a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/interpol-issues-arrest-warrant-for-notorious-white-widow-2013-9">warrant for her arrest</a>.
Now, security sources tell The Belfast Telegraph that Lewthewaite was indeed at the mall, and<a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/white-widow-samantha-lewthwaite-smeared-face-in-blood-to-flee-nairobi-terror-mall-29619912.html"> allegedly smeared her face in blood</a> in order to fool authorities and make her escape.
"Witness accounts reveal a woman closely resembling the 29-year-old mother of three was seen being led away among panicked survivors, her face and upper clothes splashed with blood," writes Jim Cusack of the Telegraph.
Further, it appears early reports that the militants may have <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-24306648">rented a shop in the mall</a> could be true. Reports are that Lewthewaite herself may have been the face of the shop operation.
<a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/white-widow-samantha-lewthwaite-smeared-face-in-blood-to-flee-nairobi-terror-mall-29619912.html">From the Telegraph:</a>
(Lewthewaite) hung up newspapers around the shop unit to conceal what was going on inside, pretending to be stocking up on goods.
Staff have told police in Nairobi they helped a woman fitting the description of Samantha Lewthwaite [sic] lift boxes into the shop unit.
A rented shop gave them access to service elevators, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-24306648">reports the BBC</a>. That access allowed them to stockpile weapons in a secure jump off point. With their own base of operations, terrorists would find it easy to reload and refit several times during the crisis.
Staging an attack of this scale highlights a bizarre evolution for Lewthewaite, who lost touch with her family after converting to Islam.
"I knew her when she was a child. She was very innocent," Raj Khan, the former mayor of Lewthewaite's hometown in England, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-27/white-widow3a-who-is-samantha-lewthwaite3f/4984124">told ABC.</a> "Lacking confidence, shy and very easy to get on with. She was a follower not a leader."

'White Widow' Reportedly Smeared Blood On Her Face To Escape Authorities In Nairobi Attack

<div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image"><img src="http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/525bfa9ceab8ea76384c825e-1200-1691/seal-swcc-dot-com-navy-seal-photo-download-000022.jpg?maxX=480" border="0" alt="navy seal" width="480" /><a href="http://www.sealswcc.com/">www.sealswcc.com</a></div></div>ON OCTOBER 5th American special forces launched two nearly simultaneous raids in Libya and Somalia. Rather than sending in a Predator drone to vaporise jihadists with Hellfire missiles, the plan was to capture them and take them to America to face justice. The targets were Abdulkadir Mohamed Abdulkadir (a leader of the Shabab group that carried out the recent massacre in a shopping mall in Kenya) and Abu Anas al-Libi (a veteran al-Qaeda operative, long on the FBI's most- wanted list).
Could this mark a shift in tactics? To fight terrorism, <keyword id="15962" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Barack-Obama">Barack Obama</keyword> has relied far more than any previous president on the use of aerial drones to kill suspected terrorists. (He has ordered over 400 such attacks since 2008.) Such assassinations are, to put it mildly, controversial. Civil-liberties groups say they are illegal, as do some members of Congress. Even counter-terrorism officials privately fret that they may in some instances be creating as many militants as they kill.
Mr Obama's right-wing critics note that, although he has broken his promise to close the prison camp at Guantánamo Bay, he has not sent any new prisoners there. Rather than capturing and interrogating jihadists, he is simply killing them. That, say his critics, deprives America of vital intelligence.
The president himself has shown signs of unease about his drone campaign's secret aspects. Last May he announced the establishment of "a framework that governs our use of force against terrorists--insisting upon clear guidelines, oversight and accountability". Mr Obama also declared: "America does not take strikes when we have the ability to capture individual terrorists; our preference is always to detain, interrogate, and prosecute...and before any strike is taken, there must be near-certainty that no civilians will be killed or injured--the highest standard we can set."
These principles governed the two operations carried out last weekend. In the case of Mr Libi, who was grabbed by Delta Force commandos as he returned to his home in a Tripoli suburb after morning prayers, a drone strike would have been unthinkable--many innocent bystanders could have been killed. Even though Mr Libi was captured without a shot being fired, the fragile Libyan government was shaken by the temporary kidnapping of the prime minister, Ali Zidan, by a rebel militia group apparently in revenge. Federal prosecutors believe that they have ample evidence to bring a case against Mr Libi for his role in plots going back to the 1998 bombings of American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania that killed 224 people.
The storming of a villa in the Somali coastal town of Barawe was a different kind of mission. Mr Obama could have chosen to send in a drone. Instead, he sent in men from the same <keyword id="359579" type="ENTERTAINMENT" weightage="60" keywordseo="Navy-Seals">Navy SEALs</keyword> unit that killed Osama bin Laden.
Drones have been used in Somalia sparingly--no more than nine times since 2011--for various reasons. The administration sees the Shabab more as a local scourge than a direct threat to Americans. The intelligence informing drone attacks is worse in chaotic Somalia than in Yemen (where al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is the target). And drones flying over Somalia are at the limit of their range. Given these circumstances, special forces were regarded this time as a better bet.
The SEALs in Somalia failed to get their man. One reason for this was that their commander had a better idea of what was happening on the ground than a drone operator thousands of miles away. When he saw that his men were involved in a heavy firefight, he withdrew rather than call for air support and risk the lives of women and children who were also in the compound. Mr Obama's new guidelines undoubtedly influenced him.
Mr Obama's decision to start capturing terrorists does not mean he will stop killing them. As Tom Sanderson of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank, puts it, the president will still want a "quiver full" of weapons that include drones, special forces and local allies (whom Americans will continue to train and equip). Picking the right arrow for each target will never be easy.
Click <a href="http://www.store.eiu.com">here</a> to subscribe to <keyword id="425741" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="The-Economist">The Economist</keyword>
<img class="nc_pixel" src="http://pixel.newscred.com/px.gif?key=YXJ0aWNsZT03ZDM2ZTQxOTczZmU3YmU4MWMzOTU0ODg5NGVjNTc0OSZvd25lcj1kM2Y2MjMzYjQ4YzhmNmE1ZWQ2NzhjMzU2NDBkZmQxNCZub25jZT00ZWNmOTQzZi1hZThmLTRjOWYtOTJkNC01MjIxOWE1MmM4ZjMmcHVibGlzaGVyPThjMDBmYmVlNjFkNWJjZjBjNjA5MmQ4YjkyZWJiY2Ex" border="0" alt="" width="1" height="1" />

KILL OR CAPTURE? Two Raids By Special Forces Hint At A Tactical Shift By Barack Obama

<div class="KonaFilter image-container"><div class="image"><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=32"><img src="http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/5307dd606bb3f7130ec21ba6-1016-579/screen%20shot%202014-02-21%20at%206.10.55%20pm.png?maxX=800" border="0" alt="global conflict tracker" width="800" /></a><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/">Council on Foreign Relations</a>Click map to see interactive version.</div></div>Several of the <a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=32">2014 geopolitical risks that could affect the U.S.</a> that the Council on Foreign Relations warned about in December are already happening.
Political unrest in Ukraine, rated moderate likelihood, moderate impact, has erupted into "<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=32" target="_blank">civil violence and protracted political instability</a>." A political crisis in Venezuela, rated low likelihood, low impact, is starting to look a lot more likely, with protesters warning they have <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/venezuela-protest-2014-2">reached the point of no return</a>.
The <a href="http://www.cfr.org/peace-conflict-and-human-rights/preventive-priorities-survey-2014/p32072">CFR report</a> and <a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=32">accompanying map (click for interactive version)</a> is based on the assessment of approximately 1,200 government officials, foreign policy experts, and academics. Risk events are rated for likelihood and impact, with high impact events directly threatening the U.S. homeland, likely to trigger U.S. military involvement, or threatening the supply of critical U.S. strategic resources.
Below are the top ten threats threats, starting with the worst, with links to CFR's analysis for more information:
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=9">Strengthening of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula </a>High likelihood; moderate impact. The Arabian Peninsula is considered the "most dangerous al-Qaeda affiliate" to U.S. national security with more than two dozen U.S. diplomatic facilities in the area have shut down because of terrorist threats. In response, the United States will continue to escalate its drone counterterrorism campaign.
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=10" target="_blank">Political Instability in Jordan </a>High likelihood; moderate impact. Jordan's political stability and economy is severely threatened by the influx of Syrian and Palestinian refugees. The United Nations has estimated that Jordan will need $5.3 billion by the end of 2014 for its refugee crisis. 
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=8" target="_blank">Sectarian Violence in Iraq </a>High likelihood; moderate impact. According to the CFR, if sectarian violence continues, Iraq may plunge into a "deeper state of chaos" and potentially into civil war. 
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=7" target="_blank">Rising Security Threats in Pakistan</a> High likelihood; moderate impact. The withdrawal of U.S. and allied forces from Afghanistan after 2014 could increase instability by allowing anti-state militants from Pakistan to establish a terrorist safe haven in Afghanistan. 
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=3" target="_blank">Increased Violence and Instability in Afghanistan</a> High likelihood; moderate impact. Failure to sign a security pact could undermine U.S. and allied forces efforts to improve the security environment of Afghanistan. The reestablishment of al-Qaeda groups throughout Afghanistan is one possibility if agreements are not met.
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=1">Terrorist Attack on the U.S. Homeland </a>Moderate likelihood; high impact. Another attack on the scale of 9/11 is "plausible," according to CFR, with the White House warning that al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula "poses the greatest potential threat."
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=4">Iranian Nuclear Crisis </a>Moderate likelihood; high impact. The prospects for a breakthrough in the nuclear standoff with Iran have recently improved. A lasting settlement of the dispute is still uncertain and even "the possibility of military strikes cannot be discounted," according to the CFR.
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=5" target="_blank">North Korean Crisis</a> Moderate likelihood; high impact. The risk of conflict on the Korean peninsula remains high since there are continuous efforts by North Korea to develop nuclear weapons and long range missiles against UN Security Council resolutions. The execution of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's uncle following charges of treason has increased the potential for political instability and unrest in the country.
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=6" target="_blank">Civil War in Syria</a> Moderate likelihood; high impact. According to the CFR, ongoing civil strife threatens the stability of U.S. allies, particularly Turkey and Jordan. Increased regional instability could create another safe haven for extremist groups active in Syria, like al-Qaeda affiliates, Islamic State of Iraq, and Hezbollah.
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=2" target="_blank">Cyberattack on U.S. Infrastructure</a> Moderate likelihood; high impact. Due to the increasingly sophisticated nature of cyberattacks, such an attack on critical infrastructure could be significantly disruptive or potentially devastating. Energy is the most vulnerable industry, and therefore a large-scale attack could temporarily halt the supply of water, electricity, gas, transportation, communication, and financial institutions.
And 23 more threats:
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=26">Violence in the Central African Republic</a> High likelihood; low impact.
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=33">Internal Violence in South Sudan</a> High likelihood; low impact.
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=16" target="_blank">Escalation of Drug-Related Violence in Mexico</a> Moderate likelihood; moderate impact.
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=14" target="_blank">Political Instability in Libya</a> Moderate likelihood; moderate impact.
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=12" target="_blank">Increased Violence in Egypt</a> Moderate likelihood; moderate impact.
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=18" target="_blank">Indo-Pakistani Military Confrontation</a> Moderate likelihood; moderate impact.
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=20">Continuing Conflict in Somalia with Al-Shabab</a> Moderate likelihood; moderate impact.
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=15">Sectarian Violence in Lebanon</a> Moderate likelihood; moderate impact.
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=32">Political Unrest in Ukraine</a> Moderate likelihood; moderate impact. 
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=13">South China Sea Armed Confrontation</a> Low likelihood; high impact.
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=17">Increasing Sectarian Violence in Nigeria</a> Low likelihood; high impact.
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=11">East China Sea Armed Confrontation</a> Low likelihood; high impact. 
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=29">Political Crisis in Venezuela</a> Low likelihood; low impact. 
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=25">Violence in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo</a> Moderate likelihood; low impact. 
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=28">Sectarian Violence in Myanmar</a> Moderate likelihood; low impact. 
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=19">Internal Instability in Sudan</a> Moderate likelihood; low impact. 
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=27">Sino-Indian Clash</a> Low likelihood; moderate impact.
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=24">Sudan-South Sudan Military Conflict</a> Moderate likelihood; low impact. 
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=23">Conflict Between Armenia and Azerbaijan</a> Low likelihood; low impact.
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=30">Violence in Bangladesh</a> Moderate likelihood; low impact. 
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=31">Growing Instability in Thailand</a> Moderate likelihood; low impact. 
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=22">Conflict in Kurdish-Dominated Regions</a> Moderate likelihood; low impact. 
<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=21">Destabilization of Mali</a> Low likelihood; moderate impact.

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