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Foreign investors have withdrawn nearly Rs 20,000 crore from Indian stock markets in just five trading days (November 4–8), continuing a trend of large-scale selling that began last month. Experts say investors are now moving their money to China, largely due to the high valuations presently prevailing in Indian markets. In early November, FPIs have offloaded as much as Rs 19,994 crore in Indian markets. The month prior, i.e., October, was one of the worst months in terms of foreign outflows, with FPIs making a net withdrawal of Rs 94,017 crore. Before this, Indian markets faced such a situation during the pandemic, when FPIs withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities in March 2020. <h2>Why Are Investors Leaving? </h2>According to Himanshu Srivastava of Morningstar Investment Research India, two main factors are driving this exodus. First is China's renewed appeal due to lower stock valuations and new economic stimulus measures. In a bid to nudge the domestic economy and bail state governments, China recently approved a 10-trillion yuan (US $1.4 trillion) package. Per reports, approximately 60% of this stimulus focuses on allowing local governments to refinance the mountain of debt on them. Srivastava explains foreign investors are also flocking to US dollar and Treasury yields, which have appreciated significantly in the recent past, leading FPIs to anticipate a stronger US economy going ahead. Moreover, high valuations in Indian markets are discouraging foreign investors from putting more money in the economy. As a result, over the past week, the selling pressure eroded Rs 74,563 crore in market value for Reliance Industries, while Bharti Airtel and ICICI Bank lost Rs 26,274 crore and Rs 22,254 crore, respectively. The combined market valuation of six of the top 10 most-valued firms dipped by Rs 1,55,721.12 crore last week. <h2> Silver linings</h2>Despite the ongoing outflux of funds since last month, November also saw unprecedented applications of about 40–50 new FPI registrations, which are eyeing to enter the Indian market. This was due to markets SEBIs recent relaxation to NRIs, permitting them to participate up to 100% and announcing measures for ease of entry and operations in India. On the other hand, FPIs invested Rs 599 crore in the debt general limit and Rs 2,896 crore in the debt voluntary retention route (VRR) during the period under review. So far this year, FPIs have invested Rs 1.06 lakh crore in the debt market. <li class="whitespace-normal break-words"></li>Going ahead, investors will be looking for certain macroeconomic cues, which include corporate earnings reports, India's inflation (CPI) and industrial production (IIP) data on November 12, the US inflation report on November 13, and wholesale price index (WPI) data on November 14.

FPIs withdraw nearly Rs 20,000 crore from equities in the last 5 trading sessions, make a beeline for China and US

<ul><li>Telecom operators are expected to announce a major <keyword id="20382313" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tariff-hike" source="keywords">tariff hike</keyword> after the general elections.</li><li><keyword id="19951944" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bharti-Airtel" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Bharti Airtel" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Bharti Airtel">Bharti Airtel</keyword> will reportedly lead the tariff hike which will increase the prices by up to 17%.</li><li>The last major tariff hike in the telecom industry increased the prices by around 20% in December 2021.</li></ul> Indian <keyword id="20243474" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="telecom-companies" source="keywords">telecom companies</keyword> may hike the tariff by 15 to 17% after the 2024 general elections. The tariff hike is expected to take place around July-October. A <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/airtel-to-lead-telecom-tariff-hike-of-15-17-post-lok-sabha-elections-analysts-12613121.html" data-type="tilCustomLink">report</a> by Moneycontrol, citing analysts, has said that Sunil Mittal-led Bharti Airtel will lead the upcoming round of tariff hike. The last major tariff hike was announced in December 2021 and Airtel had increased the prices by around 20% back then. The general elections are scheduled to commence on April 19 and the last phase will end on June 1. The result of the election will be declared on June 4. According to analysts at Antique Stock Broking, Airtel will emerge as the biggest beneficiary of the tariff hike as it will be able to increase its average revenue per user (<keyword id="20233536" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ARPU" source="keywords">ARPU</keyword>) from the existing ₹208 to ₹286 by the end of FY27. Additionally, the telco’s subscriber base is expected to grow at 2% per annum, higher than the industry’s growth of 1%. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Prices in India are among the cheapest in the world" comment="subhead" text="Prices in India are among the cheapest in the world">Prices in India are among the cheapest in the world</cmsannotation> As per analysts, the prices of telecom services are among the cheapest in the world and need revision to stabilise revenues. The ARPU may need to be increased from around ₹200 to ₹300 to ensure profitability for large telecom players like Bharti Airtel. The company’s plan to increase its ARPU to ₹286 includes the tariff hike contributing around ₹55, customers moving from 2G to 4G contributing ₹10 and customers opting for costlier 4G and 5G plans contributing ₹14. This also hints towards the company introducing new 5G plans. At present, there are no separate 5G plans and 4G users are being offered complimentary 5G services by both Reliance Jio and Airtel. While challenges do exist as Bharti has chosen a different 5G rollout path versus key competitors, we believe it is unlikely to dent Bharti's subscriber base or growth significantly. We also believe valuations do not reflect the emerging highly positive macro telecom sector environment, opines the analysts. Airtel and Jio have been gaining subscribers over the past few years at the cost of cash-strapped Vi and state-run Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL). The two telcos, who are yet to launch 5G services in the country, are expected to continue losing subscribers over the current financial year as well. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/reliance-jio-and-airtel-add-nearly-5-million-subscribers-in-january-2024/articleshow/109040220.cms">Reliance Jio and Airtel add nearly 5 million subscribers in January 2024</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/ussd-based-call-forwarding-to-be-suspended-soon-to-curb-fraud/articleshow/108933705.cms">USSD-based call forwarding to be suspended soon to curb fraud</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/mobile-number-portability-revamped-to-reduce-sim-swap-frauds-here-are-the-new-rules/articleshow/108613683.cms">Mobile Number Portability revamped to reduce SIM swap frauds – Here are the new rules</a>

Telecom companies may hike tariffs by up to 17% after the general elections, predict analysts

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FPIs withdraw nearly Rs 20,000 crore from equities in the last 5 trading sessions, make a beeline for China and US

BI India Bureau

Telecom companies may hike tariffs by up to 17% after the general elections, predict analysts

Sourabh Jain

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