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<ul><li>Goldman Sachs' <keyword id="44404" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Abby-Joseph-Cohen">Abby Joseph Cohen</keyword> told Bloomberg on Thursday that <keyword id="31671" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets">markets</keyword> could see "considerable downside" before the election due to factors that financial models aren't picking up. </li><li>These factors include the outcome of the election and what Congress and the president will do next before election day, Cohen said. </li><li>The senior investment strategist added that the market is vulnerable to volatility and disappointment given the"wide gaps" in the relative valuation of stocks. </li></ul><ul><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/international?r=US&amp;IR=T?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingesttm_medium=ingest">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories</a>.</li></ul>Goldman Sachs' Abby Joseph Cohen <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-10-08/goldman-s-abby-joseph-cohen-sees-s-p-500-modestly-undervalued-video">told Bloomberg on Thursday</a> that markets could soon see "considerable downside" based on factors that financial models cannot predict.What Congress will do next, what the president will say, and how the election will end cannot be forecasted by modeling, the senior investment strategist said."Those of us who have lived our professional lives really focusing in on the math, I think should feel very humble right now," Cohen said. "Because what we recognize is that the models may not be able to properly reflect all of the volatility not just in the markets, but in the economy, in policy, and of course in investor sentiment."Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-snowflake-barrick-gold-shareholder-brian-gongol-2020-10">Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway shocked investors with its Snowflake and Barrick Gold bets. A veteran shareholder explains why they might be part of a new strategy</a>While Cohen said that it's not unusual for volatility to rise before an election, there's also been "erratic movement" with regard to fiscal policy. Stocks quickly sold off on Tuesday after Trump tweeted that negotiations for the next stimulus plan would be halted until the election. The famed strategist also said there are "wide gaps" in the relative valuation of stocks. Just a handful of stocks drove the market's record rally following its March lows. Cohen said this can make the market more volatile, and more vulnerable to disappointments.

Goldman Sachs senior strategist warns stocks could see 'considerable' pre-election downside that isn't being factored into models

<table class="image-container float_right" width="200"><tr><td><div class="image"></div><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/video/89504679/">Bloomberg Television</a></td></tr></table>Top Goldman strategist <keyword id="44404" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Abby-Joseph-Cohen">Abby Joseph Cohen</keyword> is on BloombergTV talking stocks with Tom Keene.
Cohen is known for being generally bullish, and she is not disappointing today.
She is bullish on US stocks, despite stocks being at record highs.
She says that contrary to popular belief, the real economy has actually roared back more than the stock market has.
And furthermore, for the first time since the crisis ended, the US economy has found momentum, suggesting in her view that the next recession is "pretty far off into the future."
If you've missed this rally, she doesn't suggest jumping in all at once, but engaging in a diversification process, trimming down cash and bond exposure.

Abby Joseph Cohen: Here's Why You Still Have To Be Bullish On This Market

<table class="image-container float_right" width="200"><tr><td><div class="image"></div>Getty Images/ Stephen Lovekin</td></tr></table>It's International <keyword id="624" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Women">Women</keyword>'s Day, so we're publishing our first ever list of the 25 most powerful women on <keyword id="42111" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Wall-Street">Wall Street</keyword>.
For the list, we talked to several people on Wall Street to see whom they regarded as the most powerful. Some of them we selected ourselves. 
A big thanks to Bloomberg TV and anchor Stephanie Ruhle who helped provide names. Bloomberg TV "Market Makers" featured a bunch of these awesome ladies on-air today.
If you feel we missed someone big, feel free to send an email to jlaroche@businessinsider.com. We're always open to adding more women.

The 25 Most Powerful Women On Wall Street

<table class="image-container float_right" width="200"><tr><td><div class="image"></div><a href="http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=1206767531">CNBC</a></td></tr></table><keyword id="166540" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Barrons">Barron's</keyword> recently held its annual <a href="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704843204578245523623098286.html">Roundtable</a> with some of the luminaries of finance. 
Participants included Scott Black of Delphi Management; Fred Hickey of The High-Tech Strategist; Abby <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/joseph-cohen" class="hidden_link">Joseph Cohen</a> of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/goldman-sachs" class="hidden_link">Goldman Sachs</a>, Brian Rogers of T. Rowe Price, Meryl Witmer of Eagle Capital Partners, Mario Gabelli of GAMCO Investors, Oscar Schafer of O.S.S. Capital Management, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/bill-gross" class="hidden_link">Bill Gross</a> of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/pimco" class="hidden_link">PIMCO</a>, and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/felix-zulauf" class="hidden_link">Felix Zulauf </a>of Zulauf Asset Management.
And the battle between the bulls and the bears has never been more heated.
Here's an exchange between Goldman Sachs' <keyword id="44404" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Abby-Joseph-Cohen">Abby Joseph Cohen</keyword> and PIMCO's <keyword id="174544" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Bill-Gross">Bill Gross</keyword> over profit growth expectations. From <a href="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704843204578245523623098286.html">Barron's</a>:
What is your S&amp;P 500 earnings estimate for 2013?
Cohen: Consensus estimates for earnings growth are on the order of 12% to 13% this year and next. Corporate performance has diverged from the economy's performance for many years, and that could continue. Companies in the S&amp;P 500 are increasing their exposure to other parts of the world, not just for production purposes, but more important, in terms of end demand. ... Gross: Time out, people. Let's try to analyze why earnings have done so well in recent years. Corporate profits have come at the expense of labor. Wages as a percentage of GDP have declined to 54% from 59% in the past 10 years. That trend would have to continue for earnings to keep going up. Also, 30% to 35% of earnings growth in the past five years has come from lower interest expense. Most of you probably would agree that is coming to an end, as well. Corporations have to sell their products to somebody. They can't benefit when that somebody has depressed wages and high leverage. At some point the game begins to change. A forecast of 12%-to-13% earnings growth under such circumstances is not only extreme but almost farcical.
Cohen: I gave you bottom-up estimates [industry analysts' estimates]. Our top-down number [market strategists' estimates] is lower, but still in the mid- to high single digits. That is much better than many people, Goldman Sachs included, felt 12 months ago.
Indeed, that data shows that <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/wall-streets-analysts-vs-strategists-2013-1">stock pickers (i.e. bottom-up analysts) tend to be more bullish than strategists (i.e. top-down analysts)</a>.
It's worth noting that Gross, the bond king, wasn't safe from jabs either. Here's Brian Rogers:
Rogers: ...One thing we haven't talked about is the great rotation: money coming out of Bill Gross's portfolio and going into the equity market.
Gross: Sorry, that hasn't happened.
Rogers: It hasn't happened, yet. It will be a factor in boosting equity returns this year, unless investor sentiment turns very negative, which could be a risk next month as the debt-ceiling fight gets under way. That is going to be a mess, and February probably will be the worst month for stocks. But a combination of decent economic performance, reasonable valuations, and decent dividend activity suggests stocks could do well this year. Dividend growth substantially outpaced earnings growth last year, and there were a number of special dividends toward year end before tax rates were slated to rise...
Barron's Roundtable is always a must read. Read it at <a href="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704843204578245523623098286.html">Barrons.com</a>.

Bill Gross Told Goldman's Abby Cohen That Her Forecast Was 'Farcical' At Barron's Roundtable

<ul class="summary-list"><li>David Rosenberg warned the buzz around stocks today is similar to the mania before past crashes.</li><li>He highlighted the Great Crash of 1929, the dot-com bubble bursting, and the financial crisis.</li></ul>The feverish excitement around stocks today is similar to the mania that preceded the Great Crash of 1929, the dot-com bubble bursting in the early 2000s, and the housing market's collapse in 2008, David Rosenberg has warned.The veteran economist and Rosenberg Research president also rang the alarm on the US economy in a research note on Wednesday. He underscored that American consumers are running short of cash, and finding it harder to borrow money.Rosenberg highlighted three famous quotes uttered before past crashes, to underscore the similarities between investors' unwavering confidence then and now:"Almost like the Irving Fisher refrain in 1929: 'Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.' Maybe a bit like Abby Joseph Cohen ahead of the tech wreck: 'We expect 2001 to be yet another year of profit expansion, albeit at a slower pace.' Or how about Chuck Prince's doozy in July 2007 that 'as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance.'"The former chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch said the fear of missing out (FOMO) driving stocks higher today reminded him of those periods. The S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average have all surged this year, in part because investors are bullish on Big Tech and artificial intelligence."The balloon does have a lot of hot air in it," Rosenberg noted, suggesting it was hard to say when speculation and emotion would cease trumping fundamentals and rational thought.Rosenberg struck a bearish tone on the US economic outlook too. Consumers had been living off their pandemic savings and relying heavily on credit cards to weather historic inflation and rising interest rates, but now they're "at the end of the rope," he said.The economics guru pointed to a 2.6% drop in real, annualized retail sales in the second quarter. He also noted the New York Fed Credit Access Survey showed a decline in the percentage of loan applications approved in June, and higher rejection rates for credit cards, mortgages, and auto loans.Moreover, the surveyed households reported a historically high risk of needing to come up with $2,000 in the next month, plus a lower ability to find that extra money, Rosenberg said.It's undeniably bad news for the US economy if consumers are exhausting their savings, and struggling to secure loans to buy homes, cars, and other products and services. Tighter credit and a decline in consumer spending could slow overall growth, erode corporate profits, pull down asset prices, and plunge the US economy into recession.Rosenberg has <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-economic-outlook-recession-spx-banks-credit-crunch-rosenberg-2023-4">issued</a> similarly dire warnings in recent months. He <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/david-rosenberg-stocks-crypto-house-prices-inflation-recession-fed-portfolio-2023-2">told Insider</a> in February that a recession appeared inevitable, and predicted the S&amp;P 500 would plummet to 3,000 points — a 34% decline from its current level of about 4,575 points.However, several <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-economy-outlook-recession-inflation-jobs-unemployment-krugman-fed-housing-2023-7">economists</a> and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jpmorgan-jamie-dimon-consumer-spending-economy-recession-inflation-war-food-2023-7">executives</a> have grown less worried about a recession. Inflation has dropped from a 40-year high of 9.1% to 3% over the last year, paving the way for the Federal Reserve to cease hiking interest rates and start cutting them in time.The US central bank has raised rates from almost zero to over 5% since last spring in an effort to curb price growth. That has raised borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, and wreaked havoc on debt-fueled industries such as commercial real estate.If the Fed reverses course and begins to loosen its monetary policy, that could boost the prices of stocks and other risky assets, and allow the economy to escape a recession.

A top economist says the stock-market mania reminds him of the dot-com and housing bubbles - and warns consumers are feeling the squeeze

Good morning. <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">Markets</keyword> continue to reel as Russia and Ukraine hold negotiations. Today we're going over what investors can expect amid the uncertain landscape — and what that means for portfolios. And one more thing… Introducing our new audio product from the Insider newsroom: <a href="https://www.insider.com/therefresh">The Refresh from Insider!</a> Keep up with the latest market moves with our audio news briefing that constantly updates throughout the day. <a href="https://www.insider.com/therefresh">Give it a listen here.</a>Here we go.If this was forwarded to you, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/10-things-opening-bell">sign up here</a>. Download Insider's app <a href="https://www.insider.com/app">here.</a><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bottom-bounce-russia-ukraine-fed-rate-hikes-2022-2"></a>1. Don't make any sudden moves with your stocks yet. JPMorgan analysts said investors should <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/russia-ukraine-conflict-stock-market-outlook-rebound-jpmorgan-economy-strong-2022-2">hold onto shares despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict</a> so they don't miss out on a rebound. In a Monday note, the bank added that war should not massively impact the global economy, and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-today-western-sanctions-against-russia-ramp-higher-2022-2">stocks</a> are poised to recover. Meanwhile, iCapital's chief investment strategist said the Fed's rate-hike pace, as well as what happens in Ukraine, will dictate <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bottom-bounce-russia-ukraine-fed-rate-hikes-2022-2">whether markets bottom out and bounce back</a>. The market could see an upswing if the geopolitical crisis de-escalates and if the Federal Reserve signals it's "paring back some of the more hawkish interest rate increases," Anastasia Amoroso told CNBC. And top economist <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-russia-ukraine-fed-investors-mohamed-el-erian-2022-2">Mohamed El-Erian cautioned investors</a> to position themselves for uncertainty even if markets look like they're returning to normal. Here's what's going on with Russia's economy right now:<ul><li>Russia <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nasdaq-nyse-halt-trading-russia-stocks-yandex-ukraine-invasion-putin-2022-2">closed its stock market on Monday</a> and it will remain closed Tuesday with <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/russia-closed-stock-market-blocks-foreigner-sales-central-bank-ukraine-2022-2">no indication</a> yet on when it'll reopen. </li><li>Western nations pledged to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economic-measures-swift-golden-passports-economic-measures-2022-2?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">remove Russian banks from SWIFT</a>, a communication network for the global financial system.</li></ul>The<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/russia-closed-stock-market-blocks-foreigner-sales-central-bank-ukraine-2022-2"> central bank of Russia</a> doubled its interest rate to 20% after the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/russia-ukraine-war-central-bank-ruble-dollar-gold-sanctions-economy-2022-2?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">ruble plummeted</a>, and instructed brokers not to execute sell orders from foreigners.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/russia-ukraine-putin-markets-lost-war-rabobank-ruble-sanctions-resistance-2022-2"></a><div type="image" title="russia ukraine" height="997" width="1995" msid="89924663" hostid="261"></div>In other news:2. Global shares are trading sharply lower. Talks between Russia and Ukraine have not stopped the hostilities, pushing oil close to $100 a barrel and weighing on futures. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-russia-ukraine-talks-oil-price-ceasefire-deal-2022-3">Here is what's happening on markets.</a>3. Earnings on deck: Target, Hostess Brands, and Wendy's, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/earnings-calendar">all reporting</a>.4. A former Goldman Sachs investment chief explained why you shouldn't panic about inflation. Abby Joseph Cohen was one of the few experts who called the strength of the historic 1990s market. She said investors are overly concerned about rising interest rates and price surges — <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-inflation-fear-abby-joseph-cohen-goldman-sachs-2022-2">and shared what to buy right now. </a>5. Crypto is playing a major role in the Ukraine war. From sanctions to bitcoin donations, the various moves are a sign of the times: a 21st century world <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/cryptocurrencies-emerge-weapon-ukraine-russia-war-sanctions-dao-nft-fundraising-2022-2">arming itself with digital currencies in an inaugural war of the crypto age. </a>6. A top SEC official said crypto companies that admit violations of securities laws won't get an amnesty. SEC chief Gary Gensler has said crypto regulation is high on the regulator's priority list for this year — <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/sec-no-amnesty-for-companies-self-reporting-securities-laws-violations-2022-2">and the new report confirms it.</a>7. Vladimir Putin has "lost this war — and so have markets." That's according to Rabobank's global strategist, who predicts a rough road ahead as Western allies step up economic sanctions on Russia. "The greatest risks lie in <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/russia-ukraine-putin-markets-lost-war-rabobank-ruble-sanctions-resistance-2022-2">how much damage he is prepared to inflict on to attempt to deny that fact."</a>8. A pair of Amazon analysts debate whether the company should spin off its undervalued cloud business. While shares of the tech giant are underperforming Wall Street estimates, some believe a spin-off could create $1 trillion in value. Plus, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-stock-amzn-outlook-prediction-aws-spinoff-dan-loeb-antitrust-2022-2">here's why Amazon stock has up to $500 billion in untapped value.</a>9. Evercore said investors should bet on these 10 stocks for their improving prospects amid market volatility. Julian Emanual said profit growers make a good bet right now — <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-picks-to-buy-best-options-trades-evercore-julian-emanuel-2022-2">and he shared a simple options trade to amplify gains. </a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/job-mismatch-impacting-hiring-challenges-during-pandemic-indeed-2022-2"></a><div type="image" title="job mismatches between job seekers' and employers' interests" height="940" width="1240" msid="89924664" hostid="261"></div>10. Businesses are still struggling to attract workers. But a new study found that the labor shortage isn't exactly being driven by workers and employees wanting different things. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/job-mismatch-impacting-hiring-challenges-during-pandemic-indeed-2022-2">Dig into the data here.</a> Don't forget to listen to <a href="https://www.insider.com/therefresh">The Refresh from Insider to stay on top of the news.</a>Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email <a href="mailto:prosen@insider.com">prosen@insider.com</a> or tweet <a href="https://twitter.com/philrosenn">@philrosenn</a>.)

10 things before the opening bell

<a href="https://newsletter.businessinsider.com/join/4np/10-things-opening-bell&amp;hash=8122c716833601fc1471f79af063b104?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestm=ingest" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Welcome to 10 Things Before the Opening Bell. Sign up here to get this email in your inbox every morning.</a>Here's what you need to know before <keyword id="31671" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets">markets</keyword> open.1. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/uk-economy-gdp-august-covid-coronavirus-august-slowest-rate-2020-10-1029664762">The UK's economic recovery is running out of steam - GDP grew just 2.1% in August despite government support</a>. This fell far short of expectations for a reading of 4.6%.2. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/london-stock-exchange-sell-italy-borsa-italiana-euronext-5-billion-2020-10-1029665009">The London Stock Exchange is selling Italy's only stock market platform to Euronext for $5 billion</a>. LSE began discussions with Paris-based Euronext last month.3. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-downside-considerable-before-election-goldman-models-volatility-2020-10-1029663545">Goldman Sachs senior strategist warns stocks could see 'considerable' pre-election downside that isn't being factored into models</a>. What Congress does next, what the president says, and how the election will end cannot be forecasted by modeling, Abby Joseph Cohen said.4. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-square-buys-million-ubiquitious-potential-currency-digital-tech-2020-10">Square buys 4,709 bitcoins for $50 million on the potential it will be a 'ubiquitous currency'</a>. The investment represents about 1% of Square's total assets at the end of the second quarter.5. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-outlook-japan-growth-investing-baillie-gifford-stock-strategy-portfolio-2020-10">'A paradise for growth investors': A Baillie Gifford fund manager overseeing almost $2 billion explains why investors are underestimating Japanese stocks — and shares his 3-part strategy for picking winners</a>. It's "very simple," Praveen Kumar said.6. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-picks-value-investing-strategy-from-fund-manager-david-herro-2020-10">David Herro has steered the $22.2 billion Oakmark International fund through 5 crises since its inception 28 years ago. The veteran investor shares 3 stocks he's betting on, and the pandemic-related opportunities he's seizing</a>. He shares where he is finding value and 3 "punished" stocks he is betting on. 7. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trading-strategy-legend-richard-dennis-shares-secrets-rules-to-millions-2020-10">Self-taught market wizard Richard Dennis took a $1,600 loan and turned it into an estimated $200 million. He shares the 13 trading rules that turned his performance parabolic</a>. "I didn't know what I was doing," he said when asked about his early years on the trading floor.8. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-analysis-q3-earnings-season-preview-revisions-tobias-levkovich-2020-10">Citi's US equities chief warns of an 'extreme peak' in earnings revisions heading into the crucial reporting season — and explains why it makes stocks vulnerable to a pullback in the weeks ahead</a>. He said a loss of momentum in positive earnings revisions could weigh down stock prices. 9. US futures are up. Germany's DAX was about flat, Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.6%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.2%. In Asia, China's Shanghai Composite rose 1.6%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.3%, and Japan's Nikkei fell 0.2% at the close. In the US, futures on the Dow Jones, the S&amp;P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 rose between 0.2% and 0.4%.10. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar">On the data docket</a>. US wholesale inventories and the Baker Hughes oil rig count are due today.

10 things you need to know before the opening bell

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">Brendan McDermid/ReutersAbby Joseph Cohen</div></div></div>Abby Joseph Cohen, the president of Goldman's Global Market Institute, is retiring. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-10/goldman-s-abby-joseph-cohen-famous-for-bullish-calls-to-retire">Bloomberg's Dakin Campbell</a> reported Friday that Cohen will step back from her management duties. But she's not leaving the investment bank completely; she will continue to advise investing clients and will stay on the committee that oversees Goldman's US retirement plans. Cohen, 64, gained a reputation as one of the most bullish and accurate strategists on Wall Street. She forecast the stock market surge in the 1990s that preceded the dotcom bubble, and advised clients to reduce their exposure to stocks right before the crash.But like many colleagues, she didn't see the most recent financial crisis coming. As <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2014/07/01/best-and-worst-predictions-of-the-past-25-years.html">CNBC noted</a>, Cohen 2008 price target on the S&amp;P 500 was a super-bullish 1,675. The market closed the year 46% below her target, at 903.25. As stocks sold off in January 2016 after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, Cohen criticized the bearishness as an "emotional response." In an <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sell-everything-goldmans-abby-joseph-cohen-says-stocks-are-best-place-to-be-2016-01-14">interview with Bloomberg</a>, she put off concerns at the time of a US recession, and said the economy would likely continue to grow by around 2.5%. Cohen joined Goldman Sachs in 1990 and was named a partner in 1998. Her career began at the Federal Reserve, where she worked as an economist. <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/never-wash-jeans-how-to-clean-2017-1">You should never wash your jeans - here's how to clean them</a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="lzbjY2OTE6ANMRreqGgeELCIk_h-dNWI" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

One of Wall Street's most prominent bulls is retiring

<keyword id="1334" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="China">China</keyword> has been one of the hottest economies in the world in recent decades.
However, the country has <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/march-chinese-trade-data-2013-4">largely been driven by exports</a>, not consumption. This dynamic is made very clear in its <keyword id="44844" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Trade">trade</keyword> deficit with the U.S.
Goldman Sachs' Abby Joseph Cohen included this stunning chart in a recent presentation that she gave.
<div class="image-container click-to-enlarge" style="width:1000px"><div class="image"><a title_source="Goldman Sachs" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/51657392ecad044822000028-960/screen%20shot%202013-04-10%20at%2010.04.44%20am.png"></a></div>Goldman Sachs</div>

CHART: How America's Trade Deficit With China Exploded From Nothing To $316 Billion In 26 Years

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div>Barron's <a href="http://online.barrons.com/articles/barrons-roundtable-part-1-masters-of-the-game-1421478968?mod=BOL_hp_highlight_1">published highlights</a> from its annual roundtable discussion this weekend, and among the participants this year was Swiss hedge fund manager Felix Zulauf. 
Overall, Zulauf has a downbeat view of the economy for 2015, and expects there will be tons of volatility in markets this year. 
But because volatility will reign supreme this year, Zulauf said of the investing landscape, "It will be a trader's dream, but an investor's hell."
Zulauf said that the biggest thing going for the US stock market right now is that bond returns stink. On <a href="http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield">Friday</a>, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 1.83% while the 30-year was near a record low at 2.44%.
Zulauf, however, expects that the economy will struggle in 2015 despite forecasts to the contrary, and this is likely to pressure stocks. Moreover, it's been a while since there has been a correction in the stock market and we could be overdue for a pullback.
Zulauf:
"The major U.S. stock indexes haven't declined by 10% for the past 3.5 years. Extreme readings of investor sentiment reflect a lot of complacency, which usually makes a market vulnerable. A lot of multinational growth stocks are extended on the upside, and cyclicals are extended on the downside. Usually, this situation ends in a big correction. I expect a decline of 15% or so moving into the spring. It could be worldwide, and probably triggered by earnings disappointments in the U.S., due to the strong dollar. I assume central-bank monetary policy will get even easier in the face of this decline."
The roundtable also talked about the decline in oil prices, and Zulauf came down on the side of the slide in oil being a negative for the market and the economy.
"The oil-price slump will hurt the economy dramatically in terms of capital spending and employment, and a lot of oilfield jobs are high-paying jobs," Zulauf said. "Yes, lower oil prices will bring down the cost of energy, which is good for consumers, but the private sector is going to save this money, instead of spending it."
The Barron's roundtable, which this year also included folks like Goldman's Abby Joseph Cohen, Janus' Bill Gross, and "Dr. Doom" Marc Faber, is a must-read for anyone who wants to get an extended read on what some of the sharpest folks on Wall Street are thinking about heading into this year.
<a href="http://online.barrons.com/articles/barrons-roundtable-part-1-masters-of-the-game-1421478968?mod=BOL_hp_highlight_1">Read the full report from Barron's here »</a>

FELIX ZULAUF: 2015 Will Be 'A Trader's Dream, But An Investor's Hell'

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesMassachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren</div></div></div>Welcome to Finance Insider, Business Insider's summary of the top stories of the past 24 hours. Bridgewater Associates is as well known for being the world's largest hedge fund, with $150 billion in assets under management, as it is for its quirky culture of "<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bridgewater-ray-dalio-succession-radically-transparent-culture-2016-3">radical transparency</a>."An obvious question about the company is how - or if - Bridgewater's culture contributes to its success on the investment side. For the firm's co-CIO, Bob Prince, there's a clear correlation. We talked to Prince about the firm's <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bridgewater-bob-prince-culture-performance-2017-2">intense, unique culture, and how</a><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bridgewater-bob-prince-culture-performance-2017-2"> he views the relationship between performance and working environment</a>.We also recently caught up with Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, the head of US Equity Strategy at JPMorgan. Here's what he had to say <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/interview-with-jp-morgans-head-of-us-equities-dubravko-lakos-bujas-2017-2">about </a><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/interview-with-jp-morgans-head-of-us-equities-dubravko-lakos-bujas-2017-2">dollar strength, market volatility and where investors should put their money in 2017</a>. A former hedge fund manager <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/raol-pal-is-sounding-the-alarm-on-the-trump-trade-2017-2-1001741443-1001741443">who retired at 36 is sounding the alarm on the Trump trade</a>. And Abby Joseph Cohen, the president of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/abby-joseph-cohen-to-retire-from-goldman-sachs-2017-2">Goldman Sachs' Global Market Institute, is retiring</a>.Elizabeth Warren and Tammy Baldwin <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/elizabeth-warren-tammy-baldwin-ask-goldman-sachs-influence-on-trump-2017-2">wrote a letter to Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein asking how much influence Goldman has over Donald Trump</a>. And one of the world's leading <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/fitch-ratings-on-threat-of-trump-economic-policy-2017-2">credit-rating agencies thinks Trump could be a disaster for the global economy</a>.In deal news, the company behind <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/reckitt-benckiser-buying-mead-johnson-179-billion-deal-2017-2">Durex and Dettol just confirmed a $17.9 billion deal to buy a US baby milk maker</a>. Wall Street <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/reckitt-benckiser-mead-johnson-deal-fees-robey-warshaw-2017-2">stands to make more than $100 million from the deal</a>.And Walt Disney is <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/walt-disney-is-raising-its-stake-in-paris-disneyland-2017-2">buying most of Saudi Prince Alwaleed's stake in Paris Disneyland</a>.In corporate news:<ul><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/under-armour-travel-ban-statement">Under Armour denounces Trump travel ban after CEO praised president as 'a real asset for the country</a>'</li><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/sears-ceo-will-pay-40-million-to-settle-shareholder-lawsuit-2017-2">Sears CEO Eddie Lampert will pay $40 million to settle a lawsuit that alleged he unfairly enriched himself with the company's "crown-jewel assets"</a></li><li><a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/activision-blizzard-q4-2016-earnings-2017-2-1001741550">The company behind Call of Duty and Candy Crush is soaring after reporting record revenue</a></li><li>"<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-blasts-twitter-for-missing-q4-earnings-expectations-2017-2">Can't fly with broken wings" - Wall Street blasts Twitter for missing Q4 earnings</a></li><li><a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/yelp-sales-outlook-misses-stock-price-2017-2-1001739336">Yelp plunges after sales outlook misses estimates</a></li></ul>In macro news, Canada's <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/canada-jobs-report-february-10-2017-2017-2">jobs report crushed it</a>. And <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-might-have-something-to-do-with-investors-losing-confidence-in-the-fed-2017-2">investors don't trust the Fed anymore</a>, according to Business Insider's Pedro da Costa. There's a bunch of news in the healthcare sector, too:<ul><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-senate-votes-to-confirm-rep-price-as-health-secretary-2017-2">The Senate has confirmed Trump's pick to lead the Department of Health and Human Services</a></li><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/senators-question-price-of-4500-naloxone-auto-injector-evzio-2017-2">The list price of a life-saving overdose treatment has skyrocketed 680% in the last 3 years - and now 31 senators want answers</a></li><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-update-1-fda-approves-marathon-pharmaceuticals-dmd-drug-2017-2">A decades-old steroid used to treat a rare disease just got approved by the FDA - and it costs $89,000</a></li><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/what-pharmacy-benefit-managers-are-doing-about-trump-and-drug-pricing-2017-2">One of the largest middlemen in the drug industry just released a video showing why it should be able to remain secretive</a></li><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/state-uninsurance-rate-map-no-health-insurance-2017-2">Here's how many people in every state don't have health insurance</a></li><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/healthcare-costs-are-devastating-for-american-finances-2017-2">One chart shows just how devastating healthcare costs are for American families</a></li></ul>In other news, Tesla faces a unionization challenge <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-factory-employees-want-to-unionize-2017-2">after factory workers complain of injuries and long hours</a>. Elon Musk called the attacks on <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-defends-tesla-factory-conditions-2017-2">Tesla's working conditions "morally outrageous."</a>Lastly, here are <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/best-romantic-adventure-trips-for-couples-2017-2">35 trips every couple should take in their lifetime</a>.Here are the top Wall Street headlines from the past 24 hour<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/inside-capital-one-cafe-for-millennials-2017-2">Capital One is trying to curry favor with millennials with cafés around the US offering free Wi-Fi, local coffee and food, and complimentary money coaching</a> - The more than 80 million people born into the millennial generation have grown up with technology by their side.<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/china-january-currency-outflows-2017-2">This is how you know something desperate is going on in China's economy</a> - The country has been suffering from money outflows for months - something that troubles Beijing because it pulls down the value of the Chinese yuan and makes the economy harder to manage.<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bank-of-england-governor-mark-carney-diversity-the-spirit-of-the-millennial-2017-2">MARK CARNEY: Central banks need "the spirit of the millennial"</a> - Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said he wants to improve diversity at the central bank to avoid "being mono-culture, secretive and ridden with groupthink."<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/greece-debt-bonds-imf-eu-2017-2">Greece is in trouble again over its "explosive" debt - here's why</a> - Greece is back. A disagreement among Greece's creditors over how to deal with the country's "explosive" debt pile is making the market nervous.<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/trading-volumes-plunging-at-chinas-three-biggest-bitcoin-exchanges-2017-2">Trading volumes are crashing at China's 3 biggest bitcoin exchanges</a> - Trading volumes at China's three largest bitcoin exchanges have plummeted after the central bank put the virtual currency market under sharper scrutiny a month ago in a move that coincided with official efforts to stem capital outflows.<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/rbcs-michal-katz-on-wall-street-career-advice-2017-2">A banker who's been on Wall Street for 20 years explains why you shouldn't worry too much about your first job</a> - RBC Capital Markets' technology investment banking cohead, Michal Katz, has called some big-name Wall Street firms home over the course of her over 20-year career in finance.

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