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New Delhi: Steel companies in the country are likely to face margin pressure in the third quarter of FY25 as muted steel prices compress spreads, according to a report by Axis Securities. The report stated that the weak demand in China and higher exports from the country have been identified as key factors behind the decline in steel prices. The report highlighted that <keyword id="24048830" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chinese-steel-exports" source="keywords">Chinese steel exports</keyword> reached 92 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) between January and October 2024, marking a 22 per cent year-on-year increase. This has led to an oversupply in the global market, weighing down prices domestically. It said "Weak Chinese domestic demand along with higher Chinese exports has led to a decline in steel prices in India. Chinese steel exports from Jan'24 to Oct'24 stood at 92 MTPA, up 22 per cent YoY" In India, the average price of hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel in the trader's market in Mumbai fell by 8 per cent year-on-year and 6 per cent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 51,802 per tonne in the second quarter of FY25. Spot prices have further declined to Rs 49,000 per tonne, 5 per cent lower than the Q2FY25 average. The report also noted some signs of recovery in China's residential property sector, with increased transactions in major cities following policy measures aimed at boosting demand. However, challenges remain, as the three-month moving average of year-to-date floor space declined by 19 per cent year-on-year in September 2024, remaining in negative territory. It said "China's residential property sector is showing some signs of improvement with the transactions in major cities rising after recent policy measures introduced to boost demand". On the global front, the report noted that the probability of a 25-basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in its December 2024 meeting has fallen to 58.9 per cent, down from 76.8 per cent in October 2024, owing to strong economic data from the US. Additionally, China has removed a 13 per cent export rebate on aluminum and copper, effective December 1, 2024, in response to anticipated tariff measures by the new US administration. These developments highlight the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the global and domestic steel and metals markets.

Falling steel prices amid Chinese export surge, to reduce profits of companies in Q3 FY25: Report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Investors are worried that labor market weakness could thwart a soft landing.</li><li>However, Goldman Sachs' Joseph Briggs doesn't think there's reason for concern.</li></ul>As inflation creeps downward, investors are increasingly turning their attention to the labor market to look for clues of a soft landing.Both July and August employment data fell short of Wall Street expectations after revealing lower-than-expected job additions, sparking fears of a recession and sending stocks tumbling. The highly anticipated September jobs data will be released this Friday.Investors shouldn't be worried, though. Labor market fundamentals remain strong, according to Joseph Briggs, co-lead of Goldman Sachs' global economics team and a former Federal Reserve senior economist."If we take a broad assessment across a number of different labor market indicators, they are still roughly where they were from 2017 to 2019, and that was a pretty healthy labor market," Briggs said.In Briggs' view, the following three indicators point to a normalizing late-cycle labor market, and in turn, a strong economy.<h2 id="8324345f-3390-4c5f-b3f9-7002460cb3bb">3 signs of a healthy labor market</h2>Layoffs are one important indicator of the job market's health, and luckily, companies aren't laying off many workers right now.Both layoff rates and initial claims are hovering at or below pre-pandemic levels, Briggs pointed out. Initial claims, or first-time jobless claims filed by individuals seeking unemployment benefits, dropped to a four-month low of 218,000 last week.Low layoffs, in particular, are a positive sign because they help the economy avoid a dangerous feedback loop, Briggs said. Layoffs lead to decreased consumer spending, hurting companies, which leads to even more layoffs.Thankfully, the labor market isn't experiencing this sort of spiral right now. "We're not really seeing any signs on a widespread basis that employers are actually firing workers," Briggs said.On the contrary, consumer spending is quite robust, driven by continued job gains and wage growth, according to Briggs.Wage growth is improving and exceeding inflation this year, posting 3.5% year-over-year growth in August 2024. Real average weekly earnings increased 0.2% from July to August of this year. Briggs predicts that US workers could see 2.0 to 2.5% real income growth in the upcoming year.The US economy is also adding jobs at a steady pace that supports consumer spending, Briggs said. In August, 142,000 jobs were added, which Briggs sees as a healthy monthly increase. He expects the US economy to continue adding jobs at a rate of 140,000 to 150,000 a month. This pace of job growth isn't as aggressive as it was during the post-pandemic hiring frenzy, but that's to be expected as the labor market normalizes, and investors shouldn't take this development as an indicator of recession.Lastly, GDP growth remains strong, setting the stage for a favorable hiring environment. The US economy posted 3% annualized GDP growth in the second quarter of 2024, faster than the 1.4% growth rate in the first quarter and beating Wall Street expectations.Briggs is optimistic about future GDP growth as well. He expects the impacts of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle to start manifesting in the economy relatively quickly, boosting US GDP within the next few quarters.The overall economy has been improving in the past few months in anticipation of rate cuts and will continue to do so, in Briggs' opinion. Most notably, mortgage rates have been decreasing."The changes that we've seen over the last few months point to about a half-point boost to annualized GDP growth over the second half of 2024 and the first half of 2025," Briggs said."There are sectors of the economy that are still highly rate sensitive, and these will have a clear impact on GDP growth," he added.These areas include the housing market, consumer durables, small-cap companies, and industries such as software and pharmaceuticals. With multiple areas of the economy set to benefit from rate cuts, investors should be confident that a soft landing and strong labor market are in the cards.

These 3 indicators are pointing to a healthy labor market similar to the pre-pandemic boom, according to Goldman Sachs

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks rebounded Monday, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining over 1% after last week's losses.</li><li>Investors are optimistic ahead of key inflation data to be released on Wednesday. </li></ul>US stocks staged a rebound on Monday from last week's painful losses.The S&amp;P 500 gained just over 1%, recouping about a quarter of its 4% decline last week.Investors pushed stocks higher ahead of key inflation data this week.The consumer price index report for August will be released Wednesday morning. Average economist estimates suggest prices rose 2.6% year-over-year last month, a sizable drop from the 2.9% reading seen in July.According to Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn, a light CPI reading could help determine whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points at its policy meeting next week."The disinflation process has stalled in recent months but if forecasts are right, the August drop could see expectations lean closer to a 50 basis point cut throughout this week, possibly giving risk assets another leg higher," Hathorn said in an email.The CME FedWatch Tool shows investors expect a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed next week, with just a 25% chance for a 50 basis point cut.The CPI data will be followed by the producer price index on Thursday morning, which market veteran Louis Navellier believes will help push yields lower."With the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index rising at only a 1.7% annual pace in the past three months, I am expecting favorable CPI and PPI data to further help drive Treasury yields lower," Navellier said in a Monday note.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,471.05, up 1.16% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 40,829.59, up 1.2% (+484.18 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 16,884.60, up 1.16% </li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-event-iphone-16-announcement-live-updates-2024-9">Apple unveiled several new products on Monday with AI-focused features, including the Apple Watch Series 10, AirPods 4, and iPhone 16.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-momentum-presidential-race-debate-polls-2024-9">Here's why the presidential race between Trump and Harris remains a virtual dead heat.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-major-flaw-7-trillion-cash-bull-thesis-2024-9">There's a major flaw in the stock market's most bullish thesis.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/aging-world-population-stock-market-risk-jpmorgan-returns-valuations-growth-2024-9">A shrinking world population is bad news for the stock market, according to JPMorgan.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/10-us-cities-metros-housing-market-home-prices-texas-florida-2024-9">Home prices are falling the fastest in these 10 US cities, according to data from Realtor.com.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/palantir-stock-price-soars-ai-company-added-sp500-index-pltr-2024-9">Palantir soared as much as 14% on Monday after it was revealed the company would be added to the S&amp;P 500 later this month.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil increased 1.37% to $68.60 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, jumped 0.93% to $71.72 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was up 0.39% to $2,534.50 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was lower by 1 basis point to 3.703%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> rose 4.13% to $57,144.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Dow jumps 484 points as US stocks rebound ahead of key inflation report

<keyword id="1404739" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="housing-development-finance-corp-ltd" source="Orion">Housing Development Finance Corp Ltd</keyword> hiked its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points, with effect from August 1, the company said in an exchange filing. The hike in rate by the mortgage lender came before the <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>'s (<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>) monetary policy meeting, which is to be held between August 3 and August 5. "<keyword id="45123" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="hdfc" source="Orion">HDFC</keyword> increases its <keyword id="648146" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="retail-prime-lending-rate" source="Orion">Retail Prime Lending Rate</keyword> (<keyword id="413108" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rplr" source="Orion">RPLR</keyword>) on housing loans, on which its Adjustable Rate Home Loans (ARHL) are benchmarked, by 25 basis points, with effect from August 1, 2022," the exchange filing said. The revised rates for new borrowers will range between 7.80 per cent and 8.30 per cent, against the existing range of 7.55 per cent to 8.05 per cent. For existing customers, the rates will rise by 25 bps. SEE ALSO : <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/uneven-rains-could-have-a-detrimental-impact-on-crop-production-and-inflation/articleshow/93228276.cms">Uneven rains could have a detrimental impact on crop production and inflation: Nomura report</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sustainability/news/centuries-old-indian-stepwells-may-serve-as-a-solution-to-water-conservation-during-the-scorching-heat/articleshow/93212987.cms?utm_source=social_sticky_non_amp&amp;utm_medium=social_sharing&amp;utm_campaign=Click_through_social_share">Centuries-old Indian stepwells may serve as a solution to water conservation during the scorching heat</a>

HDFC hikes its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points

Mumbai: Indian <keyword id="19900617" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="stock-markets" source="keywords">stock markets</keyword> opened at a new high on Friday, with both indices continuing the bull run. The <keyword id="20641216" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty-50" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Nifty 50" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Nifty 50">Nifty 50</keyword> index opened closer to its 52-week high, while the <keyword id="19896382" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Sensex" source="keywords">Sensex</keyword> opened above the 83,000 mark for the first time. The Nifty 50 index opened at 25,430.45, gaining 41.55 points or 0.16 percent, while the BSE Sensex opened at 83,091.55 points, a surge of 128.84 points or 0.16 percent. Global markets are rallying ahead of the Fed rate cuts, and <keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> are continuously reaching new highs, reflecting strong investor confidence. "The focus is totally on the Fed action and Fed speak of Sep 18th. But the Sep 12th Indian markets action is pointing to a classical flows pattern of equity markets getting inflows as the US dollar weakens on the back of Fed rate cuts. Markets will move sharply in anticipation of this. Some minor risk off is possible early next week, in the lead up to the FOMC announcement on Sep 18th night time in India. FIIs have cut the "caution" out from our "cautious optimism" and made us ardently "optimistic" said Ajay Bagga, Banking and market expert. In the sectoral indices on the National Stock Exchange, Nifty Media led in gains, followed by Nifty Metal and Nifty PSU Bank. In the Asian markets on Friday, there was mixed movement, with Japan's Nikkei index falling 0.89 percent, along with flat movement in South Korea's KOSPI. Meanwhile, Hong Kong's stock index surged 1.16 percent, and Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted also gained marginally, by 0.14 percent at the time of filing this report. The U.S. markets on Thursday marked the fourth consecutive session of gains, with the S&amp;P index gaining 0.75 percent, while the Nasdaq surged 1 percent by the closing bell. The European markets also closed with positive gains after the EU announced rate cuts of 25 basis points. Germany's DAX surged 1.02 percent, France's CAC index gained 0.51 percent, while the UK's FTSE index gained 0.57 percent on Thursday. The Indian stock markets hit a record-breaking milestone on Thursday, with both Sensex and Nifty closing at record highs. This surge was driven by broad-based buying across sectors, reflecting strong investor confidence and robust market sentiment. The Sensex skyrocketed by 1,439.55 points to close at 82,962.71, while the Nifty surged by 395.40 points, closing at 25,313.85 points.

Indian markets open at record high, Sensex above 83,000 and Nifty above 25,400

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks staged a sharp rebound on Friday, snapping a three-day streak of losses.</li><li>Encouraging inflation data stoked optimism that the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates in September.</li></ul>US stocks rebounded Friday, helping reverse a streak of losses that dominated most of this week.With investor confidence starting to waver in the tech-stock bull run, rotations out of the mega-cap sector sent indexes on a three-day decline. On Wednesday, the tech-heavy <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_100">Nasdaq 100</a> suffered its worst day since 2022, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-nasdaq-tech-selloff-tesla-alphabet-q2-earnings-2024-7">dropping 3.6%</a>.That changed Friday, as encouraging inflation data injected new life into the rally. June's personal consumption expenditures index aligned with forecasts, boosting investor certainty that interest rates could soon come down.Headline PCE rose 0.2% from May and 2.6% year-to-year."Next week we expect [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell to set the table for future rate cuts, speaking confidently about progress bringing inflation down. Today's PCE report supports this," said David Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth. "While we don't think he will use the word 'imminent,' we do think he will leave the impression that a September rate cut is likely."According to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">CME FedWatch Tool</a>, the market no longer expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates steady in September.Instead, investors indicated 87.7% odds of one cut that month. The market also forecasts high chances that the Fed will slash rates by up to 75 basis points through December.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Friday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,459.10, up 1.1%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 40,589.34, up 1.6% (654 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,357.88, up 1%</li></ul>"The Fed is on track for two cuts this year – one in September and another in December – and as long as the data keeps coming in like it has (e.g. not too hot and not too cold) they have the luxury of keeping rates unchanged next week and proceeding at a 25-basis-point pace every other meeting in the short run," predicted Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer for Independent Advisor Alliance.While some commentators feel the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/next-recession-outlook-forecast-interest-rate-cuts-sahm-rule-unemployment-2024-7">Fed should cut at its policy meeting next week</a>, concerns over a meaningful economic slowdown were diminished on Thursday, with second-quarter GDP data coming in <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-tech-earnings-selloff-gdp-economy-growth-inflation-2024-7">hotter-than-expected</a>.Next week, investors will be on the lookout for June's jobs report to offer more clues on economic conditions.Among Friday's notable stock movers, medical device firm Dexcom fell over 40% on disappointing guidance. Meanwhile, the rotation into small-cap stocks continued, sending the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/russell_2000">Russell 2000</a> up over 1%.Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-prices-starter-home-million-dollar-cities-home-costs-2024-7">Typical starter homes are worth at least $1 million in a record 237 US cities</a>, Zillow reported.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-economy-gdp-growth-russia-war-arms-trade-deal-2024-7">North Korea's economy ended three-years of stagnation as its arms deal with Russia boosted growth.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-housing-market-outlook-nightmare-home-prices-mortgage-rates-affordability-2024-7">Florida homebuyers are backing out in droves as affordability concerns take over</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/andrew-left-accused-fraud-citron-research-market-manipulation-short-selling-2024-7">Famed short-seller Andrew Left falls into regulatory cross-hairs amid accusations of fraud</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/next-fed-interest-rate-cut-december-september-employment-inflation-bofa-2024-7">The Fed won't cut until December, Bank of America says</a>.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures were down. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dropped 2.02% to $76.71 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 2.08% to $80.66 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> gained 0.83% to $2,384.39 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield slid six basis points to 4.19%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> rose 3.15% to $67,852.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Dow soars 654 points as traders celebrate inflation data

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes posted big gains Thursday, with the Dow jumping 555 points as investors digested encouraging new data.</li><li>New releases showed retail sales jumped 1% in July, surpassing analyst expectations of 0.3%.</li></ul>Indexes rose sharply across the board on Thursday as investors reacted to encouraging retail sales and jobless claims data.The Dow jumped 555 points, a 1.4% increase, while the S&amp;P 500 saw a 1.6% rise and the Nasdaq composite climbed 2.3%.The gains come after retail sales data showed a 1% increase in July, led by spending in the auto and electronics sectors, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That increase outpaced analyst expectations of 0.3%.Jobless claims for last week, also reported Thursday, fell to 227,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the prior week. The encouraging data comes after a weaker-than-expected July jobs report helped kickoff a market selloff last week.Treasury yields rose too, with the 10-year treasury yield up more than 10 basis points to 3.926%.Retail sales and jobless claims data seem to be continuing to ease investor worries over the strength of the US economy after yesterday's CPI report added further confidence that inflation is easing.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4 p.m. closing bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,543.22, up 1.6%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 40,563.06, up 1.4% (555 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,594.50, up 2.3%</li></ul>Data released Wednesday showed consumer inflation cooled to 2.9% in July, its lowest level in over three years. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-costs-inflation-cpi-consumer-price-index-shelter-real-estate-2024-8#:~:text=Housing%20costs%20are%20the%20big,its%20lowest%20level%20since%202021.?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Sticky housing inflation accounted for 90% of the rise in core CPI</a>, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, making it the biggest factor keeping inflation high as the Fed targets 2%.Investors continue to see a 100% chance that the Fed cuts rates in September, with a 65% chance of 25 basis points and a 36% chance of 50 basis, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>.Here's what else happened today:<ul><li>Danish monkeypox-vaccine maker Bavarian Nordic <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/monkeypox-mpox-vaccine-bavarian-nordic-stock-mover-who-emergency-outbreak-2024-8">surged as much as 17%</a> on Thursday after the WHO declared monkeypox a global health emergency.</li><li>Stocks could be <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-fed-rate-cuts-bull-market-economy-inflation-2024-8">poised for a 1995-like rally</a> amidst falling inflation and a resilient economy, according to Wells Fargo strategy chief.</li><li>Walmart's stock <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/walmart-sales-inflation-consumers-spending-retail-online-stock-surge-ubs-2024-8">soared as much as 8.4% to all-time highs Thursday</a> after reporting strong sales last quarter, even as consumers pull back on spending in general.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 1% to $76.04 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, ticked higher 0.9% to $79.02 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> traded higher at $2,463.30</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose two basis points to 3.98%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> rose 8% at $59,549.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Dow soars 555 points as strong economic data calms recession worries

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Economist David Rosenberg warns the stock market is in a "mega-bubble."</li><li>Rosenberg cites high valuations, investor positioning, and sentiment as warning signs.</li></ul>It's a tempting time to jump into the stock market. The S&amp;P 500 continues to register new highs and has climbed an incredible 23% so far this year. That's on the heels of a 22% gain in 2023.But now isn't the time for greed, says famed economist <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-recession-labor-market-revisions-rate-cuts-rosenberg-2024-8">David Rosenberg</a>.In notes to clients this month, the founder of Rosenberg Research, who called the 2008 recession, warned that the market is overvalued, eventually setting investors up to get burned."This is the mother of all momentum-driven stock markets," he wrote in an October 9 note."When this mega-bubble pops, it will be spectacular," he added on October 18. "This is no time to chase momentum or the herd mentality."Rosenberg said a large reason for his bearish outlook is a trifecta of measures sitting two standard deviations outside of average values: positioning in stocks, market valuations, and investor sentiment.While he didn't cite specific measures in his notes, many widely followed indicators corroborate these assertions.For investor positioning, here's household equity ownership as a percentage of assets as of the start of this year. North of 40%, it exceeds levels reached during the dot-com bubble.<div type="image" title="household equity allocation" height="1126" width="2360" msid="114372880" hostid="261" sizebytes="56840"></div>For valuations, there are a myriad of different gauges, but two common ones to consider are the Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio and the ratio of the Wilshire 500-to-GDP, shown below, respectively.<div type="image" title="shiller pe ratio" height="380" width="600" msid="114372881" hostid="261" sizebytes="14270"></div><div type="image" title="total market cap to gdp" height="380" width="600" msid="114372882" hostid="261" sizebytes="11862"></div>There are also many measures of investor sentiment. One popular indicator is the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.aaii.com/latest/article/239694-aaii-sentiment-survey-pessimism-spikes">AAII Sentiment Survey</a>. As of Thursday, 45.5% of its respondents characterized themselves as bullish, above the historical average of 37.5%. Almost half of respondents, however, said they think the market is overvalued.By Rosenberg's measure, the S&amp;P 500 is at least 25% higher than where fundamentals suggest it should be."Prices have outpaced earnings growth in the past year and if this were a classic earnings-driven rally, the S&amp;P 500 would be sitting near 4,600, not at 5,751," Rosenberg said in the October 9 note. "Not only that, but analyst EPS revisions have been squarely to the downside."Since then, the S&amp;P 500 has risen to 5,864.Rosenberg's bearish views on the market come alongside a pessimistic view of the economy. He said an expectation-beating September jobs report was an outlier in a downward trend, and he still expects a recession ahead.<h2 id="defdb45d-ba91-4e39-8f1f-99b2833d082b">Rosenberg's views in context</h2>The bearish economist has been calling for a recession for a couple of years now, and has warned at various points of an overvalued stock market.Meanwhile, the market has soared, outperforming the expectations of even the most bullish strategists on Wall Street, and the economy has continually shown resilience despite interest-rate hikes.But signs of weakness are emerging as the unemployment rate trends upward and job openings and new hires drop.The Federal Reserve has started to take action to prevent further slowing by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September. But it's still not clear whether the economy is at the start of a new business cycle, or whether it will buckle under the weight of elevated rates and plunge into recession.Rosenberg thinks the latter scenario is more likely, and therefore cautioned investors about investing at this stage of the bull market, after such an aggressive rally over the last couple of years."Managing money means, at all times, preserving capital while capturing part of the upside," Rosenberg wrote in the October 18 note. "J.P. Morgan reportedly once commented that he got wealthy not by buying at the lows and selling at the highs, but rather by being involved in the middle 60% of the bull market. We are well past that point."

A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns stocks are in a 'mega-bubble' with the S&P 500 ahead of fundamentals by at least 25%

Revenues of organised <keyword id="21758362" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold-jewellery-retailers" source="keywords">gold jewellery retailers</keyword> are expected to surge by 22-25% this fiscal year, driven by the sharp reduction in import duties on <keyword id="18712" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold" source="Orion">gold</keyword> in the July Budget, according to a <keyword id="20874793" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CRISIL-report" source="keywords">CRISIL report</keyword>. A recent analysis by CRISIL Ratings, which examined 58 gold jewellery retailers representing a third of the <keyword id="21165181" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="organised-sector" source="keywords">organised sector</keyword>'s revenues, indicates that the sector will benefit from improved <keyword id="19900859" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="working-capital" source="keywords">working capital</keyword> management. Although many retailers plan significant store expansions--estimated at 12-14% of existing stores--lower gold prices will reduce inventory costs, providing working capital relief. The organised jewellery sector, which accounts for just over a third of the overall market, is poised for a stronger financial performance compared to its unorganised counterpart. The steep reduction in <keyword id="20069572" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="import-duty" source="keywords">import duty</keyword> has come at a crucial time for the industry, as retailers prepare for the festive and marriage seasons. Following the price decline, volumes are expected to grow by 3-5% this fiscal year, reversing earlier projections of stagnant demand. Gold prices had been steadily rising since February 2024, which had subdued consumer demand and led to revenue growth driven solely by higher realisations rather than increased sales volumes. Himank Sharma, Director at CRISIL Ratings, highlighted the timely impact of the duty cut and said, "The duty cuts to their decadal lows have come at an opportune time for the gold jewellery retailers as they start stocking for the festive and marriage seasons from the latter half of August." He added, "However, the inventory losses on the existing stock due to the price cuts will be partially mitigated by the reduced spends on marketing and discounts, as demand revives. All said <keyword id="19957745" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="profitability" source="keywords">profitability</keyword> will see a marginal dip on-year to 7.1-7.2%." Despite the pressure on profitability, retailers' cash flows will improve due to higher revenues, enabling them to pursue expansion plans. Store expansions, expected to increase by 12-14%, will require higher inventory levels. However, the lower input costs resulting from reduced gold prices will balance out the additional working capital requirements. Gaurav Arora, Associate Director at CRISIL Ratings, added, "Gold jewellery retailers will maintain comfortable financial metrics this fiscal, with total outside liabilities to tangible net worth (TOL/TNW) and interest coverage ratios remaining around 1.0 and 9 times, respectively. These will be moderately better than our earlier expectations, keeping credit profiles stable." As the festive season approaches, gold prices remain around 17% higher than last year's average, which is expected to sustain demand and further drive revenues in the second half of the fiscal year. However, potential volatility in gold prices, changes in government regulations, and shifts in consumer sentiment will need to be closely monitored. The combination of reduced prices, increased demand, and improved working capital management is expected to keep the financial outlook for gold jewellery retailers positive, despite the slight dip in profitability. The reduced duty has caused retail gold prices to fall by Rs 4,500-5,000 per 10 grams, leading to increased demand for gold jewellery. The growth projection, 500-600 basis points higher than earlier estimates of 17-19%, is fuelled by higher volumes as more consumers are enticed by the lower prices.

Budget import duty cut will boost gold jewellery retailers' revenues by 22-25% this fiscal, notes CRISIL report

<ul><li><keyword id="4667782" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="sabnavis" source="Orion">Sabnavis</keyword> said it believes that the terminal repo rate for the financial year is expected to be 6.5 per cent.</li><li>An out-of-turn meeting of the <keyword id="6375120" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="monetary-policy-committee" source="Orion">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India was held in early November.</li><li><keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> had already hiked the key policy rate by 190 basis points since May to 5.9 per cent to cool off domestic retail inflation.</li></ul> The Reserve Bank of India's three-day monetary policy committee meeting commences today. Financial markets will be keenly watching the committee's stance as consumer inflation is still above the 6 per cent target band. "The RBI will be presenting the monetary policy against the backdrop of GDP growth slowing down as well as inflation being high above 6 per cent. We do believe that the MPC will continue with rate hikes this time though the magnitude will be lower - probably 25-35 bps," said <keyword id="170005" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="madan-sabnavis" source="Orion">Madan Sabnavis</keyword>, Chief Economist at <keyword id="6358007" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="bank-of-baroda" source="Orion">Bank of Baroda</keyword>. More specifically, Sabnavis said it believes that the terminal repo rate for the financial year is expected to be 6.5 per cent, which essentially means there will be one more rate hike in February meeting. "It is unlikely to change the stance and the withdrawal of liquidity will continue. While the RBI will take a hard look at both the GDP and inflation projections, there could be some downward revision for GDP growth. In short, there will not be any surprise for the market just as is the case for global markets too which are now expecting more moderate increases in interest rates by the <keyword id="45672" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="fed" source="Orion">Fed</keyword>," Sabnavis added. The central bank had already hiked the key policy rate by 190 basis points since May to 5.9 per cent to cool off domestic retail inflation that has stayed above the RBI's upper tolerance limit for over three quarters now. In October, retail inflation was 6.77 per cent. Under the flexible inflation targeting framework introduced in 2016, the RBI is deemed to have failed in managing price rises if the CPI-based inflation is outside the 2-6 per cent range for three quarters in a row. An out-of-turn meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India was held in early November to discuss and draft the report to be sent to the central government for having failed in maintaining the inflation mandate. The meeting was called under Section 45ZN of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Act 1934, which pertains to steps to be taken if the central bank fails to meet its inflation-targeting mandate. Further details about the special meeting are not officially in the public domain. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/more-to-be-expected-from-rbis-mpc-meeting-than-just-a-rate-hike-say-experts/articleshow/95991628.cms">More to be expected from RBI's MPC meeting than just a rate hike say experts</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/health/news/canada-overwhelmed-with-tridemic-of-covid-19-flu-and-respiratory-syncytial-virus/articleshow/95990833.cms">Canada overwhelmed with 'tridemic' of Covid-19, flu and respiratory syncytial virus</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/startups/news/jio-haptik-aims-to-turn-profitable-before-listing/articleshow/95975823.cms">With an eye on listing in the future, Jio Haptik trains guns on growth &amp; profitability</a>

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