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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Former President Donald Trump bested Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.</li><li>Trump won largely by breaching Democrats' "blue wall."</li></ul>Former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> won a second term in office, overcoming an intense level of political opposition — as well as doubts over his fitness for office — by driving home a message that he would be the best candidate for Americans' pocketbooks.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/FoxNews/status/1854053633198825482">Fox News</a> called the race early Wednesday morning. A little under four hours later, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/CNN/status/1854109735076676021">CNN</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/NBCPolitics/status/1854109434735169912">NBC News</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/CBSNews/status/1854111079984501068">CBS News</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/ABCPolitics/status/1854111153305088285">ABC News</a> also called a Trump victory after the result in Wisconsin put Trump over the 270 electoral votes he needed to win the presidency.In defeating Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a>, Trump will return to the White House after voters ousted him from office in the 2020 election.Trump had essentially been running for president since his 2020 loss. He sought to overturn Joe Biden's victory and was impeached by the US House of Representatives for "incitement of insurrection" over his role in the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021. (He was later acquitted by the US Senate.)In November 2022, Trump launched his presidential campaign on the heels of a disappointing night for the GOP, as the party failed to retake the Senate and only barely won back a House majority. But he used the head start to hammer potential GOP primary opponents and gradually reaffirmed his standing as the party's leader.Trump easily dispatched top figures like Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ron-desantis-wife-kids-family-photos">Ron DeSantis</a> of Florida and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nikki-haley-family-husband-kids-immigrant-parents-photos">Nikki Haley</a>, the former ambassador to the UN, in the 2024 GOP primaries, which further strengthened his hand as he eyed a general-election rematch against Biden.But Biden's exit from the race — following a disastrous <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happened-biden-trump-debate-takeaways-2024-6">debate against Trump</a> in June — paved the way for Harris' candidacy. The vice president quickly consolidated Democratic support and attracted the sort of donor base that was able to compete directly with GOP megadonors.Still, Trump continued to hold a polling advantage on the economy throughout the general-election race, which for many voters overrode concerns over his behavior while in office.And despite Harris' strong start and her robust campaign apparatus, she was still unable to overcome Trump's enduring level of support from his conservative base.Addressing his supporters in West Palm Beach, Florida, early Wednesday morning, before the race was called, Trump said his election victory would usher in the "golden age of America" and vowed to "help our country heal.""America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate," he added.Trump's return to the White House is also poised to have profound effects on the judiciary.Should either Associate Justices <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/clarence-thomas-takes-aim-at-osha-2024-7">Clarence Thomas</a> or Samuel Alito retire from the bench within the next four years, Trump has the potential to name at least one more conservative jurist to the court. And if he is able to appoint two additional justices, it means that a majority of the court would consist of his appointees — a stunning level of influence that could have reverberations for generations.

Trump wins the 2024 presidential election

Ever since Donald Trump won the 2024 US presidential elections, bitcoin has been surging, going up over 40% in the last two weeks. Recently, the cryptocurrency soared past $97,000, having risen 8.32% in just the last 7 days, and is currently trading at $96,906.09. The overall crypto market is also buoyant, with the crypto volume jumping 10.06% over the past 24 hours to touch $198.83 billion. The markets are enthused about Bitcoin's prospects going ahead, given that Trump has hinted towards establishing a dedicated role in the White House for deliberating crypto policies. Trump has been vocally pro-crypto and had promised, during his presidential campaign, to scale back <keyword id="24085738" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crypto-regulations" source="keywords">crypto regulations</keyword> and fire SEC chair Gary Gensler, who had initiated a crackdown on digital assets in the US. The crypto lobby in the US has been advocating for crypto-friendly SECs and access to banks. In a bid to do so, crypto companies have pumped in over $119 million to support pro-crypto candidates. Says Edul Patel, co-founder and CEO of Mudrex, "Market sentiment grew stronger from Bloomberg's report of Trump’s plan to establish a dedicated White House role for crypto policy. The anticipation of faster regulatory clarity coupled with BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF options projecting a $176k price target by 2026 has driven BTC’s price to the $95K milestone and beyond." The ongoing rally is not restricted to just bitcoin but also extended to Solana and XRP, which gained 10.85% and 59.02%, respectively, over the last 7 days. But does this mean that good times are coming for <keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> as well? Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives &amp; Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that bitcoin is a proxy for risk-taking in the markets. Bitcoin moving up means the risk appetite of investors is rising. Conversely, if it falls, then investors prefer safety." Both Nifty and Sensex have lost over 5% each over the last month. FIIs (<keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-institutional-investors" source="keywords">foreign institutional investors</keyword>) have also been scrambling out of Indian markets, having withdrawn Rs 1,14,445.89 crores during October 2024 and offloading Rs 34,348.30 crore so far in November. During trade today, Nifty and Sensex remained in red, with Nifty down by 0.74% and Sensex down by 0.6%. DIIs (domestic institutional investors) have been trying to keep the market afloat in both October and November, pumping in Rs 31,636.77 crore in Indian markets in November so far. Last month, DIIs infused Rs 1,07,254.68 crore in the Indian markets. According to an NSE report, by the end of the previous quarter, FPIs holding in NSE-listed companies stood at 36.3%, despite the seventh consecutive quarterly decline. Previously, FIIs holding in listed companies had hit a record high of 39.9% in December 2021. In contrast, DIIs are increasingly making headway into the Indian markets. Active Domestic Mutual Funds (DMFs) have been increasing their investments in the NSE-listed companies. Their ownership in these companies has risen from 12.4% in December 2021 to 15.7% as of September 30, 2024. Banks and insurance companies have also expanded their market share. Their ownership in NSE-listed companies has grown from 8.8% three years ago to 11% as of pr quarter.

The Bitcoin rally does not seem to be stopping anytime soon! Does this spell good news for Indian markets?

Days after Trump won his way to the White House, becoming the 47th President of the United States, the US Federal Reserve slashed the interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them within the range of 4.5-4.75%. This is the second time this year that the Fed has lowered the interest rates, after cutting them down by 50 basis points in September 2024. u Fed chair Jerome Powell noted that monetary policy remains tight as inflation remains elevated at 2.4% as of September 2024, slightly above the 2% mark set by the commission. However, the Fed remained optimistic about the current state of the economy. "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at 2% over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) noted in its press release. The rate cut was along widely anticipated lines, although experts were wary of the Fed's way ahead, given that Donald Trump has been elected as the US President. In the past, he has, on multiple occasions, expressed his desire to yield greater influence on the Fed, apart from publicly criticizing Powell. However, Powell continued to stand his ground, noting that Trump cannot legally sack him. He believed in keeping the Fed independent, at least until his tenure as governor ends in 2028. He highlighted that even if he is explicitly asked by Trump to quit, he won't do so. <h2>Trump's regime to inch up inflation?</h2> Trump's electoral promises, if translated into policies, could spell disaster for the Fed's effort to curtail inflation. Reportedly, Trump has promised to levy aggressive tariffs against US trading partners, particularly China, and even extend his 2017 tax cuts. This could mean higher levels of the federal deficit, which would push up prices, wages, and hence, inflation, even as the Fed tries to consistently bring it under control. Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that it wasn't a surprise when the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. The Fed had given enough clues, and the market too had anticipated these rate cuts. "However, what was surprising was how the <keyword id="23863852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-10-year-bond-yields" source="keywords">US 10-year bond yields</keyword> moved over the last one and a half months, which have been rising relentlessly from 3.6% to almost 4.5% despite the 50 bps cut in the last Fed meeting. It seems that the market is anticipating slower rate cuts going ahead, and maybe there are even chances of inflation rising. The bond yields have cooled off and slipped below the 4.335% mark. This should be bullish for emerging markets like India," he added.

US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump's victory to have no impact on policy decisions

<ul class="summary-list"><li>AOC during a recent Instagram Q&amp;A asked voters why they backed her candidacy and Trump's reelection.</li><li>The responses were candid, and many pointed to the economy and the conflict in Gaza.</li></ul>Similar to Democrats across the country reflecting on Vice President Kamala Harris' election loss, New York Rep. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/aoc-democratic-national-convention-speech-political-evolution-progressives-mainstream-2024-8">Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</a> has spent time thinking about the ramifications of President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House. Ocasio-Cortez, a strong backer of Harris and one of the most progressive voices in the US House of Representatives, took to Instagram this past weekend where <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/SJohnson99/status/1855782107118735587/video/1">she argued that "most people" aren't ready</a> for the president-elect in office again. During her conversation, she highlighted Trump's pledge to initiate <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-mass-deportation-thomas-homan-illegal-immigration-border-czar-ice-2024-11">mass deportations</a> as well as his <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-tariffs-threats-world-ceos-thoughts-trade-2024-11">tariff threats</a>. Then Ocasio-Cortez opened up the floor to Instagram users, asking for responses from people who backed her reelection in New York's 14th Congressional District and Trump's candidacy or who backed Trump and downballot Democrats in other states. Many of the responses pointed to two key issues: the economy and the conflict in Gaza. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-blue-wall-democrats-suburban-voters-unions-2024-11">Harris crafted an economic message</a> that she believed would differentiate herself from President Joe Biden, who stepped aside as the presumptive Democratic nominee in July. And the vice president sought to reassure voters concerned over the Israel-Hamas war and the plight of Palestinians that she would work to secure peace in the region as president. But she wasn't able to counter Trump's electoral performance. A slew of Instagram users said they registered their general frustration by not supporting Harris. The responses to Ocasio-Cortez included: <ul><li>"It's real simple… Trump and you care for the working class"</li><li>"Trump is going to get us the money and lets men have a voice. You're brilliant and have amazing passion!"</li><li>"I feel like Trump and you are both real."</li><li>"I know people that did this and it was bc of Gaza."</li><li>"You are focused on the real issues people care about. Similar to Trump populism in some ways."</li><li>"Because of Gaza"</li><li>"I voted Trump and dems because he reached out to Muslims"</li></ul>Democrats struggled to rally core parts of their longtime base — which included younger Black men and Latino voters — which benefited Trump. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-margins-democratic-states-harris-underperform-2024-11">The president-elect made major inroads</a>, notably in several Democratic-heavy states, as many voters remained frustrated over the direction of the country. Harris argued that her presidency would have tackled of some of the biggest economic and foreign policy challenges that the country faced, but in the end she wasn't able to recreate Biden's 2020 coalition. Correction: November 12, 2024 — An earlier version of this story overstated what is known about the people who responded to Rep. <keyword id="22445548" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez" source="keywords">Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</keyword> on Instagram. It's unclear whether the respondents voted.

AOC asked voters why they backed her candidacy and Trump's reelection. Instagram users pointed to the economy and Gaza.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>There are just 15 days until Election Day.</li><li>The presidential race remains razor close, with control of the White House at a coin-flip.</li></ul>In just over two weeks, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-swing-states-election-2024-10">Election Day 2024</a> will be here — a final cap to a wild, at times unprecedented presidential fight that, for the moment, remains far too close to call.The story of the 2024 race is that amid the chaos — President Joe Biden dropping out of the race, Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-national-polls-election-2024-10">Kamala Harris</a>' emergence, and two assassination attempts on former President Donald Trump's life — control of the White House still hinges on a coin-flip.As pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson pointed out, the 2024 race is exceptional because there has been little movement in national polling since Labor Day, the traditional starting date of the final pre-Election Day slog. Without a second presidential debate between Trump and Harris, there are also no major moments left that could presumably shake up the race. All that remains are the unexpected "October surprises," though, in today's media environment, the bar for earth-shattering is pretty hard to cross if you're not North Carolina Lt. Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-robinson-trump-north-carolina-gop-harris-election-2024-9">Mark Robinson</a>. (And even then, can one really be surprised when it comes to him?)The good news for Trump is that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-national-polls-election-2024-10">he has gained ground</a> since his widely panned debate performance against Harris. The RealClearPolitics national average has narrowed by roughly 0.5 percentage points in the past week. Noted election forecaster Nate Silver's model now shows Trump with an extremely slight lead in what continues to remain a toss-up race. According to FiveThirtyEight's state averages, Trump has narrowed Harris' lead in the three so-called Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.Harris trolled Trump on Friday for being "exhausted," referencing a string of interviews he has reportedly walked away from."Well, if you are exhausted on the campaign trail, it raises real questions about whether you are fit for the toughest job in the world," Harris said in Michigan, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/18/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/trump-skips-another-interview-00184327">referencing a Politico report</a> that Trump begged out of an interview due to "exhaustion."In response, Trump said she's a "loser" who "doesn't have the energy of a rabbit."Instead, the former president has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-going-for-crypto-bro-vote-world-liberty-financial-2024-9">hit the podcast circuit hard</a> — approaching the end of the campaign like a retired athlete loaded with stories from the glory days. In all seriousness, his team is focusing on young men. It appears to be working. According to The New York Times, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/18/upshot/polls-trump-harris-young-men.html">Trump leads Harris among young men</a> "58 percent to 37 percent, across the last three Times/Siena national polls." In contrast, Harris is driving an even larger gender gap among young women.In an era of close elections, 2024 is entering the home stretch with the potential to be one of the closest on record.<h2 id="5b26390b-d82d-4995-9be4-9043c97c0ea9">The big names are about to come out.</h2>Amid the final push, both campaigns are turning to a mix of their top surrogates. Like Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton before her, Harris has virtually every top Democrat at her beck and call. She's set to stump with both Obamas separately in Georgia and Michigan, respectively. In recent days, Harris has also appeared alongside former "Shark Tank" star <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-mark-cuban-campaign-swing-states-sec-chair-2024-10">Mark Cuban</a>, her go-to billionaire. Former Congresswoman <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/2020-is-back-on-the-2024-campaign-trail-2024-10">Liz Cheney</a> and other top Republicans will also continue to push Harris' theme of democracy and attack the former president for his refusal to accept his 2020 loss.Harris' team has teased bigger guests. They have touted a Get Out the Vote concert in pop star <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/charli-xcx-responds-to-kamala-is-brat-reaction-x-cnn-2024-8">Charli XCX's signature "Brat Green."</a> Democrats often turn to musicians and celebrities to make the final push. Obama ended his reelection with an Election Eve rally in Des Moines, Iowa, accompanied by a Bruce Springsteen performance. Clinton called on the Boss and Bon Jovi to campaign with her at her final 2016 rally in Philadelphia. The pandemic muted the 2020 race, but there's little doubt about big spectacles this time.Trump is getting an early start with a rally in New York City's Madison Square Garden. He's never had as deep of a bench or as glitzy of guests as the Democrats. It's still news when his wife, former first lady <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/melania-trump-book-memoir-scandals-2024-10">Melania Trump,</a> joins him — as she did for Thursday night's Al Smith dinner.The former president's entire appeal is predicated on breaking with traditional US politics. It's why few, if any, GOP standard-bearers ever campaign with him. His actions leading up to and during the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot have also further eroded relationships, namely with his former running mate, Mike Pence, who has said Trump endangered his family. On Friday, "Fox &amp; Friends" cohosts practically begged Trump to campaign with former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Instead of talking about his former primary foe, Trump extolled Tesla CEO <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-america-super-pac-2024-10">Elon Musk</a>. The world's richest man has donated roughly $75 million to a pro-Trump super PAC he founded. Musk also joined Trump for a recent rally and is now hosting his own series of events.<h2 id="8f498ba3-30f7-454c-82a3-9ead88ce5113">Here's where the all-important Electoral College map stands.</h2>With those numbers in mind, there's a clear picture of how each candidate can win.<div type="image" title="Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns in Michigan." height="3587" width="5381" msid="114396471" hostid="261" sizebytes="321400"></div><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-blue-wall-economic-message-unions-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin-2024-10">Harris' easiest path</a> remains what was once Biden's Hail Mary strategy before he dropped out of the race: sweep the Great Lakes states and complete the Blue Wall with Nebraska's blue dot. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have voted for the same presidential candidate since 1992. But in a razor-close election, there's always the possibility that one could fall out.Most models predict that if Trump wins Pennsylvania again, he will be the next president. If he punches a hole elsewhere, Harris could repair the damage by picking up a state like North Carolina — though the Tar Heel state has only voted for a Democratic presidential nominee once this century (Obama's 2008 victory). There's also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-trump-georgia-battleground-state-suburbs-2024-8">the possibility of Georgia</a>, a state that you might remember that Biden won by just 11,779 votes in 2020.The good news for the vice president comes from Nebraska. Like Maine, Nebraska awards some of its Electoral College votes by congressional district. In the overwhelmingly conservative state, there's a swing district, the Omaha-based Nebraska 2nd. Obama narrowly won it in 2008. Nebraska Republicans then successfully pushed to gerrymander the seat. Amid a broader demographic realignment, Biden easily won the district in 2020. Trump's best plan for Warren Buffett's backyard was a last-minute change to the state law. But <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-nebraska-2nd-electoral-college-vote-omaha-harris-mcdonnell-2024-9">it didn't work</a>. It means there is still a possibility that Harris wins the presidency 270 to 268, avoiding the possibility of just the second tie in the nation's history.Trump's team once dreamed of flipping Minnesota, New Hampshire, and perhaps even New Mexico in a rout of Biden. Since Harris' rise, they have tried to hang on to North Carolina. It's quite possible Trump could flip Georgia and Arizona, seizing on his increased standing among Black and Latino men. But barring a major surprise, Trump's best path remains to find a way to flip at least one Great Lakes state.

We are 15 days from the 2024 presidential election. Here's where things stand. 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>On <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-watch-for-election-day-harris-trump-congress-2024-11">Election Day 2024</a>, both parties are eyeing their pathways to victory.</li><li>Vice President Kamala Harris is facing former President Donald Trump.</li></ul>Over the past two decades, the road to the White House — once dominated by Florida and Ohio — has evolved.While bellwethers like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remain a critical part of the calculus for Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in reaching the 270 electoral vote threshold for victory, the Sun Belt region has also grown in importance.For Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a> and former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a>, who are facing each other in 2024 presidential election on Tuesday, every vote will be crucial in what is considered a tight race.Both campaigns have been targeting a narrow band of seven swing states to capture the White House: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.Democrats — who defied conventional political wisdom in 2022 by retaining their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/live-results-us-senate-midterm-elections-2022-11">Senate majority</a> and minimizing major losses in the House despite losing control of the lower chamber — are working hard to hold the White House as they face voter unease over the economy and pushback over the Israel-Hamas war.Before President Joe <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-presidential-race-2024-7">Biden dropped out</a> of the race for reelection in July 2024, Republicans believed that he would be a liability for Democrats. But the GOP's political calculus for the race evolved after the emergence of Harris as the Democratic nominee.And Republicans have had myriad struggles over the last two years as their stewardship of the House has not exactly worked out how they had hoped. They elected a speaker (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kevin-mccarthy-lost-speakership-cbs-interview-angered-democrats-votes-2023-10">Kevin McCarthy</a> of California) who was subsequently removed and have struggled to enact an agenda under a new speaker (Mike Johnson of Louisiana) with a razor-thin majority. The series of events created a "chaos" narrative around the party, which doesn't help at the top of the ticket.The GOP must also contend with the toxicity of Trump's political brand among a sizable contingent of voters, especially among suburbanites and Independents who are likely to decide the election.One major issue that has continued to weigh down Republican candidates is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/abortion-rights-ohio-virginia-kentucky-elections-gop-roe-v-wade-2023-11">abortion rights</a>, especially as voters in an array of states have rejected several anti-abortion measures following the Supreme Court's 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Democrats have won big in urban and suburban districts over the issue — from congressional races to local elections — and they've even made inroads in some GOP-leaning areas where blocs of Republicans support some form of abortion rights.Trump has been eager to take credit for installing three conservative justices on the Supreme Court, and in April 2024 he stated that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-said-abortion-bans-should-be-left-states-2024-4">abortion was now an issue to be determined in the states</a>, frustrating many conservatives who have sought a national abortion ban.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/streaming/where-to-watch-election-results-live-stream-2024">Election results</a> are set to start coming in on Tuesday night, but it could take days before a winner is called.Here's what to know about the seven battleground states that will ultimately determine who wins the race.<h2 id="898f6da7-6aef-4802-9d80-a0b3bf74da20">Arizona</h2>2012 margin: Romney +9.0%2016 margin: Trump +3.5%2020 margin: Biden +0.3%Between 1952 and 2016, Arizona backed the Republican presidential nominee in every election except for 1996 — when then-President Bill Clinton won the state over former Kansas Sen. Bob Dole by a little over 2 points.Long associated with Barry Goldwater, the conservative political icon who was the Republican presidential nominee in 1964, the Grand Canyon State for decades had a decidedly red lean in federal races.But as the population of Arizona has swelled, its political orientation has also shifted.In 2012, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney easily won the state over then-President Barack Obama, but former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton whittled the GOP margin of victory down to just under 4 points in 2016.Biden, buoyed by gains among the state's burgeoning <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/young-latino-educated-voters-helped-biden-flip-arizona-trump-election-2020-11">Latino population</a>, narrowly won the state over Trump in 2020 by a little under 11,000 votes out of nearly 3.4 million ballots.Democrats remain encouraged by their performance in Arizona in the 2022 midterms.Not only did Secretary of State Katie Hobbs defeat MAGA-infused <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-katie-hobbs-kari-lake-arizona-governor-election-2022-11">Kari Lake</a> in the gubernatorial race, but Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-mark-kelly-blake-masters-arizona-senate-election-2022-11">Mark Kelly</a> won a full six-year term over Republican Blake Masters. Adrian Fontes was also elected to succeed Hobbs over state Rep. Mark Finchem, who repeatedly questioned the 2020 presidential election results.Harris will have to recreate a win in a state where Republicans have long been the dominant party. And Lake is now running in the state's marquee Senate race, where she's facing Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego.<h2 id="2db802c5-f372-4aac-a96d-982425694dbf">Georgia</h2>2012 margin: Romney +7.8%2016 margin: Trump +5.1%2020 margin: Biden +0.2%For decades, Republicans could easily depend on the Peach State's electoral votes falling into their column. No more.While GOP politicians were enjoying double-digit wins in statewide races, former Democratic state House Minority Leader <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stacey-abrams-bio-georgia-joe-biden-democrats-voter-registration-election-2020-11">Stacey Abrams</a> — who saw the possibility of a more politically competitive Georgia — worked behind the scenes to build a turnout organization that could rival that of the Republican Party.In 2018, Abrams came within 55,000 votes of winning that year's gubernatorial election.Two years later, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-wins-georgia-democratic-party-south-presidential-election-2020-11">Biden won Georgia</a> by roughly 12,000 votes over Trump, followed by the dual <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/raphael-warnock-jon-ossoff-georgia-senate-shifting-demographics-religion-stimulus-2021-1">2021 runoff victories</a> of Sens. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff over Republicans Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, respectively.The exponential growth of the Atlanta suburbs, driven by new Black, Asian, and Latino residents, has given the state a purple veneer — but the 2022 midterms also showed the limitations of Democratic gains.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/raphael-warnock-herschel-walker-georgia-senate-runoff-election-results-2022-12">Warnock won</a> a full six-year term in a December runoff after fending off a challenge from Republican Herschel Walker, becoming the only Democrat to win statewide in the midterms. But Walker, aided by robust support in the state's rural counties, still won 48.6% of the vote in the runoff, despite a candidacy that some Republicans saw as deeply flawed.And Republicans were victorious in every other statewide election, led by Gov. Brian Kemp, who defeated Abrams in a rematch of their 2018 contest by nearly 300,000 votes.This year, both parties will <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-biden-trump-swing-state-election-atlanta-jump-ball-2024-4">have fought hard</a> to capture the state's 16 electoral votes: Democrats have focused heavily on turning out Black voters and suburban voters in metro Atlanta, while Republicans looked to boost their traditional support in the state's rural stretches.Translation: Georgia has remained on everyone's mind this year.<h2 id="746ed130-5944-4a3b-a75d-e8b8a536f565">Michigan</h2>2012 margin: Obama +9.5%2016 margin: Trump +0.2%2020 margin: Biden +2.8%Michigan has long been a critical part of the electoral calculus for Democrats, as they carried the state in every presidential race from 1992 to 2012 by appealing to voters in Detroit and its middle- and upper-middle-class suburbs, while also enjoying support among union households and moderates in the exurban and rural stretches of the state.But the party was stunned by Trump's narrow 2016 win in the longtime blue state, as the Republican made significant inroads with the base of white working-class voters who had been slowly drifting away from Democrats cycle after cycle.In 2020, the party put a premium on flipping the Wolverine State back into its column, which Biden did, winning by nearly 3 points over Trump.And in November 2022, Democrats in the state boasted some of their party's most impressive victories in the entire country.Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-gretchen-whitmer-tudor-dixon-michigan-governor-election-2022-11">Gretchen Whitmer</a> won reelection by nearly 11 points, while state Attorney General Dana Nessel and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson easily won their races. The party also flipped control of both houses of the Michigan legislature, and a referendum enshrining reproductive rights into the state Constitution was approved by voters.Still, despite the Democratic wins, the state's 15 electoral votes have been a sought-after prize for both parties in 2024.A major caveat: Biden has faced enormous pushback from the state's Arab American community over his handling of the conflict in Gaza, which led more than 100,000 Michiganders to vote "uncommitted" instead of selecting the president in the March Democratic primary. It remains unclear how these voters will respond to Harris' candidacy.<h2 id="662fa2f3-defd-4355-9bae-934ddc230f86">Nevada</h2>2012 margin: Obama +6.7%2016 margin: Clinton +2.4%2020 margin: Biden +2.4%Democrats have been victorious on the presidential level in the Silver State since 2008, when Obama won by nearly 13 points, followed by his victory of nearly 7 points in 2012.But Clinton and Biden both won the state by a little over 2 points, as Republicans have seen the fast-growing Western state as one that can be flipped into their column, especially if they can make inroads in Democratic-heavy Clark County.In the 2022 midterms, Republicans got a huge boost in the state when their gubernatorial nominee, Clark County Sheriff <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-steve-sisolak-joe-lombardo-nevada-governor-election-2022-11">Joe Lombardo</a>, defeated incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak.But Democrats also notched a major win by reelecting Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-catherine-cortez-masto-adam-laxalt-nevada-senate-election-2022-11">Catherine Cortez Masto</a> to a second term over former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who had been strongly backed by Trump. And after state Democrats approved congressional maps that some in the party saw as especially risky in a GOP wave year, all three of the party's House incumbents — Dina Titus, Steven Horsford, and Susie Lee — won their respective races.The ticket-splitting in the midterms once again showed the critical nature of Nevada in national politics. Both parties are looking to win the state in 2024, especially as the economy remains at the forefront of voters' minds.<h2 id="4e302a43-e844-46e3-b75c-b5be667c5284">North Carolina</h2>2012 margin: Romney +2.04%2016 margin: Trump +3.7%2020 margin: Trump +1.3%Since 1980, Republican presidential nominees have won North Carolina in virtually every election, with the exception being Obama's razor-thin 2008 victory over then-Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain.And no presidential candidate has secured a majority of the vote in North Carolina since Romney won 50.4% of the vote in 2012, making this once solidly-red presidential state a real battleground.Democrats have focused heavily on North Carolina this year, given the close nature of the results in 2020, as well as the fact that the party sees the state as one where they can appeal to its suburban electorate — a critical part of Biden's coalition four years ago.However, the GOP is banking on Trump's popularity in the state's rural regions, which could sway the statewide tally in the former president's favor if he's able to effectively turn out his supporters.And in addition to the presidential race is the highly-competitive gubernatorial contest between Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, two well-known statewide figures who are angling to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.<h2 id="10b160e7-a52c-4e12-adfa-b0b6cf0da82c">Pennsylvania</h2>2012 margin: Obama +5.4%2016 margin: Trump +0.7%2020 margin: Biden +1.2%Biden's hometown of Scranton is dear to his heart so Pennsylvania was always going to be a key state for the party in 2024. And even with Biden out of the presidential race, the state remains just as critical for Democrats.Democrats carried Pennsylvania in every presidential race from 1992 to 2012, until Trump narrowly edged out Clinton in 2016, gaining support among the white working-class voters who populate the exurban and rural communities across the state.But Biden clawed back in 2020, boosted by strong returns in Philadelphia and its affluent suburbs, as well as a robust vote in Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh.And in 2022, Democrats had a huge year in the state, electing Lt. Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-john-fetterman-mehmet-oz-pennsylvania-us-senate-election-2022-11">John Fetterman</a> to the Senate to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, while also electing state Attorney General <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-doug-mastriano-josh-shapiro-pennsylvania-governor-election-2022-11">Josh Shapiro</a> in a landslide to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf.The party also regained control the state House of Representatives, winning back a majority they lost in the 2010 midterms.Despite the GOP losses, the party — keen on winning back some suburban voters and improving their margins in the state's rural outposts — has been making a major play for Pennsylvania this year.<h2 id="dc1790c5-fa2e-4bc3-8a48-8e88a92bbe00">Wisconsin</h2>2012 margin: Obama +6.9%2016 margin: Trump +0.8%2020 margin: Biden +0.6%Wisconsin is one of the most politically divided states in the country.Democratic presidential nominees Al Gore and John Kerry eked out statewide wins in 2000 and 2004, respectively, and Obama won the state easily in 2008 and 2012.But Trump flipped Wisconsin to the GOP in 2016, the first time it had supported a Republican presidential nominee since 1984.Democrats, stunned by the loss, regrouped and elected Tony Evers as governor in 2018 — knocking out onetime GOP star Scott Walker — while also reelecting Sen. Tammy Baldwin to a second term.Biden went on to narrowly win the state over Trump in 2020.And in November 2022, Evers was reelected to a second term over Republican businessman Tim Michels, while GOP Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-ron-johnson-mandela-barnes-wisconsin-us-senate-election-2022-11">Ron Johnson</a> narrowly defeated then-Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes to earn a third term in the upper chamber.Both parties have been eyeing the Badger State — and looking to turn out their respective bases — in what will be another competitive race on the presidential level.

The 2024 presidential election may come down to swing states' results. Here's where Trump and Harris lead in the polls.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Betting markets are booming ahead of the US Presidential election.</li><li>Kalshi has attracted $100M in election bets this month and is the top free finance app in Apple's app store. </li></ul>Betting markets are having a moment in the 2024 presidential election cycle. The popularity of platforms that allow users to wager on politics has exploded, with sites like Polymarket and Kalshi allowing users to place bets on specific election outcomes. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://newsroom.aboutrobinhood.com/introducing-the-presidential-election-market/">Robinhood</a> is the latest platform to get in on the action, with the popular brokerage app announcing the launch of its own election betting contracts on Monday. Earlier this month, a US federal appeals court <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/betting-us-election-cftc-kalshi-legal-battle-prediction-market-2024-10">cleared Kalshi to open its election betting platform</a> for US citizens. Since then, the platform has attracted more than $100 million in bets related to who will win the election on November 5.Kalshi has rocketed in popularity on the Apple App Store, sitting at #7 on Tuesday morning. Among free finance apps, Kalshi is the top download, eclipsing Cash App, PayPal, and Venmo."I think we're gunning for number one for the entire app store by election day, so the demand curve truly is exponential," Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told CNBC on Monday.Meanwhile, Polymarket, which is not available to US citizens, has seen an explosion in trading volume this year.According to data from The Block, nearly $2 billion has been wagered on Polymarket's website in October, about quadruple the $533 million wagered in September and more than 10 times the $39 million wagered in April.Before 2024, the monthly trading volume on Polymarket was typically less than $20 million.<div type="image" title="Polymarket monthly trading volume" height="391" width="1647" msid="114735533" hostid="261" sizebytes="10760"></div>While Polymarket isn't available to US users, it's attracted a lot of attention and shaped the discussion of these betting platforms in US media in the final stretch of the election cycle. That's because the odds of the election outcome on the platform highly favor Donald Trump, in stark contrast with the polls, which are extremely close one week from the vote.There's also been scrutiny of the betting itself on the platform. Some of Polymarket's trading volume this month has come from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-election-odds-polymarket-whale-kamala-harris-polls-betting-markets-2024-10">a massive "whale" trader</a> that has bet more than $30 million on the outcome of the US election, at times <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-trump-vs-harris-betting-odds-polls-election-2024-10">placing as many as 71 bets per minute</a>. The bets have been mainly for Donald Trump to win the presidential election. Interactive Brokers also launched a slew of election betting contracts earlier this month following the court decision to allow Kalshi to operate. Between the rapid legalization of sports betting, the continued popularity of crypto trading, and now the sudden spike of interest around election odds, there's a clear convergence of ways for the average person to make — and in many cases, lose — money through a few clicks on their phone. It's a situation where everyday hobbies are becoming financialized.According to Mansour, the CEO of Kalshi, the boom in betting markets is a good thing because it allows for a new arbiter of truth based on money."Now when you're asking a question of will TikTok get banned? Who are we relying on to get that answer? Now there is a market-based mechanism to look to," Mansour said.Kalshi's mission is to bring "more truth to the world through the power of markets," a job posting on its website said.

The election-betting market has exploded in popularity this presidential cycle

<keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> are navigating choppy waters as global economic shifts, from rate cuts to evolving political climates, create new pressure points across the financial landscape, according to a recent report by ANI attributed originally to the Union Bank of India. The domestic stock and bond markets showed signs of strain, with <keyword id="19910363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bond-yields" source="keywords">bond yields</keyword> witnessing slight adjustments. India’s 10-year government bond yield dipped to 6.82%, a decrease from the previous session, reflecting cautious investor sentiment as the markets react to shifting global indicators. Meanwhile, the 5-year bond yield remained steady at 6.76%, a signal of lingering hesitation amid economic unpredictability. In the currency market, the rupee faced a notable decline, ending the day at ₹84.3725 against the US dollar, slipping from its prior close of ₹84.2800. Market analysts point to significant capital outflows as a key factor, with investors moving funds to perceived safer assets overseas. This migration has weighed heavily on the rupee, underlining the currency’s vulnerability in an environment of global economic flux. India’s stock market bore the brunt of this volatility, with key indices falling over 1%, effectively erasing the gains of a previous rally. This abrupt drop reportedly reflects renewed investor anxiety, largely triggered by the recent <keyword id="20189882" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-presidential-election" source="keywords">US presidential election</keyword> results. Experts suggest that the election has introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty, not only for the US economy but for global markets, impacting everything from policy decisions to investor sentiment. Analysts are also keeping a close eye on upcoming decisions by central banks, which will likely shape the path forward for the Indian equities market. Commodities showed contrasting trends, with Brent crude prices falling on lower demand expectations, as economic indicators point toward cautious spending globally. Gold, on the other hand, experienced a modest rise as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets, highlighting a shift towards risk aversion among market participants. Globally, major central banks made coordinated efforts to sustain economic growth, with the Bank of England (BoE) announcing a 25 basis-point cut, lowering its benchmark rate to 4.75%. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) largely backed this move to counter inflation, which has been declining, albeit gradually. Across the Atlantic, the US Federal Reserve mirrored this action with its own 25 basis-point cut, a sign of confidence in the ongoing economic recovery. Both rate cuts, though modest, signal a global trend towards caution as economies work to balance growth with stability. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) maintained its supportive stance. Governor Pan Gongsheng sought to reassure foreign investors by reaffirming the PBoC’s commitment to growth-oriented policies. Pan emphasized enhanced communication and pledged to open China’s financial services sector further, aiming to attract more international participants. Europe, meanwhile, faced mixed economic signals. Germany reported a steep 2.5% drop in industrial production in September, signalling a slowdown in manufacturing, while the Eurozone saw a mild 0.5% rise in retail sales, reflecting cautious consumer optimism in the region. Adding another layer to the global economic landscape, the European Union’s Climate Change Service warned that 2024 could be the hottest year on record, underscoring urgent climate challenges just as the UN COP29 climate summit approaches. The summit, set to take place in Azerbaijan, aims to rally increased funding for climate action, though tempered expectations linger in light of recent US political shifts. On the domestic front, Niti Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam spoke about India’s potential role in pivotal global trade agreements, specifically the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). These partnerships, Subrahmanyam suggested, could bolster India’s Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector, which currently accounts for 40% of India’s exports, offering a strategic advantage for Indian trade in an interconnected world. As the Indian markets digest these developments, experts believe continued volatility could be the theme for the coming months. (with ANI inputs)

Indian markets under pressure as global rate cuts stir uncertainty, new report says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>It sure seems like <keyword id="19959118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Twitter" source="keywords">Twitter</keyword> is more likely to show content from <keyword id="20052066" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Republican" source="keywords">Republican</keyword> or right-wing accounts.</li><li>That's the conclusion from two new reports in The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal.</li></ul>Is X, the service many of us still call <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-twitter">Twitter</a>, more likely to show users political posts from Republicans, or right-leaning accounts? Yes. Probably. That's the conclusion from two different deep dives published in The Washington Post and The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/x-twitter-political-content-election-2024-28f2dadd?mod=hp_lead_pos3">Wall Street Journal</a> on Tuesday. Next question: Is Twitter doing this intentionally, at the behest of owner <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk">Elon Musk</a>? That one is harder to answer. Both questions matter, obviously, because we're a week away from the <keyword id="20189882" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-presidential-election" source="keywords">US presidential election</keyword>. And while <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-advertisers-cannes-speech-tweets-twitter-x-peter-kafka-2024-6">Twitter has become a financial disaster under Musk's ownership</a>, it still remains an important news hub for many millions of people. Meanwhile, Musk, who used to support Democrats, has thrown himself completely behind Donald <keyword id="19906203" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Trump" source="keywords">Trump</keyword>'s campaign. He says "<a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1840409051357696324">Democracy is over</a>" if Trump loses. Neither the Journal nor the Post want to draw a direct line between Musk's politics and Twitter's operations. But there are certainly some suggestions of dotted lines. I've asked Twitter for comment. The details: Both papers used software to analyze what users see on Twitter. The Post looked at a year-plus of tweets from top congressional accounts; the Journal created 14 brand-new Twitter accounts, controlled by bots and spread throughout the US. The Post's conclusion: Tweets from congressional accounts across the spectrum are getting less attention than they did a year ago. But Republican tweets are much more likely to go viral than Democrats. The Journal's findings don't exactly sync with the Post. It finds that its theoretical new users, who told Twitter they are not interested in politics, saw their feeds clogged with <keyword id="20531476" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="political-content" source="keywords">political content</keyword> anyway. And while it says Kamala Harris' campaign was the most-seen account, the platform skewed right overall: "Ten of the other top 14 most-seen leaned right, including Trump's, and overall, pro-Trump content appeared about twice as frequently as pro-Harris material." What accounts for the right-leaning shift? Neither paper wants to say definitively. But they both hover around two possibilities, which aren't mutually exclusive: Theory 1: Twitter is showing users what users want to see. That's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1807089883602956465">the argument Musk makes himself.</a> And there is decent logic behind it. For starters, even before Musk bought Twitter,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2025334119"> its own researchers found that the "political right enjoys higher amplification compared to the political left"</a> on the platform. And it's entirely plausible that some left-leaning users have left the platform during Musk's ownership, in part because he reinstated accounts from right-leaning users, including Trump himself. Conservatives may also be flocking to it for the same reason. And those users may be more likely to engage with right-leaning content, prompting the site's algorithm to show them more of it — the same way all social media sites generally work with popular content. Theory 2: Twitter is showing users what Musk wants them to see. This is a notion that some current and former Twitter users believe, though there's no direct proof that it's the case. But there is plenty of precedent for it, since Musk has repeatedly moved the platform according to his whims in the past. Most famously, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/musk-changed-twitter-algorithm-tweets-didnt-get-attention-book-2024-2">Musk ordered engineers to highlight his own tweets after the 2023 Super Bowl</a>, as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.platformer.news/">Platformer's</a> Zoe Schiffer has reported. Musk has also used the site to host interviews with political figures he's interested in, including a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/desantis-campaign-launch-on-twitter-spaces-off-to-gltichy-start-2023-5">buggy chat with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2023</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzWjFzRMQNA">one with Trump this summer</a>. The Journal also reports that "more recently, Musk complained that a fraction of users saw his livestreams," and compelled his engineers to promote those chats on the site. Correction: October 29, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misattributed the detail about Musk complaining about his livestream views. The Journal reported it, not the Post.

Elon Musk is backing Trump. Is Musk's Twitter backing Trump, too?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Peter Thiel made a "contrarian" prediction that the election wouldn't be close.</li><li>He ended up being right, with Trump sweeping every swing state and overperforming in blue states.</li></ul>In September, conservative tech billionaire Peter Thiel made what he acknowledged was an unusual <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/peter-thiel-2024-election-cheating-trump-vance-harris2024-9">prediction</a> about the 2024 election."I think the odds are slightly in favor of Trump, but it's basically 50-50. My one contrarian view on the election is that it's not going to be close," Thiel said in September at an appearance at the All In Summit in Los Angeles. "You know, most presidential elections aren't."Thiel, a venture capitalist who co-founded PayPal and Palantir, said that "two-thirds of elections" aren't close, and that either Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a> or former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> could handily defeat the other."I think either the Kamala bubble will burst, or you know, maybe the Trump voters get really demotivated and don't show up," Thiel said. "But I think one side is simply going to collapse in the next two months."Thiel's prediction came true. Trump easily <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">won the election</a> and is on track to sweep all seven swing states. He also put up <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-margins-democratic-states-harris-underperform-2024-11">strong performances</a> in some traditionally Democratic states and projected to win the popular vote, the first time a Republican has done so since 2004.Thiel's argument may have also been partially self-serving. At the time, he was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-peter-thiel-donald-trump-get-off-sidelines-2024-8">facing a call</a> to "get off the sidelines" from Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, a personal friend who Thiel <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/peter-thiel-super-pac-jd-vance-ohio-fec-ruling-2024-5">spent millions</a> to elect in 2022.While Thiel said he was personally supportive of Trump this year, he had declined to spend any money on the 2024 elections, arguing that his financial contributions wouldn't make a difference at the presidential level."If it's not even close, I don't think it makes much of a difference," Thiel said in September.A spokesman for Thiel did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Thiel is known for being a contrarian who tends to make bets, via his business ventures and investments, that cut against the conventional wisdom.In his book "Zero to One" — which he wrote with his protege-turned-politician <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blake-masters-loses-arizona-primary-abe-hamadeh-jd-vance-2024-7">Blake Masters</a> — Thiel advises entrepreneurs to focus on building companies that do things that others aren't doing, rather than spending energy trying to compete with existing companies.His right-wing political views have also long been an outlier for his Silicon Valley milieu, though that may be increasingly less than case, with other tech figures like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-pennsylvania-america-pac-donald-trump-harris-2024-11">Elon Musk</a> coming around to Trump.

Peter Thiel was right about the 2024 election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ali Abbasi's film "The Apprentice" explores Trump's rise with lawyer Roy Cohn's guidance.</li><li>The film highlights Trump's tactics, which influenced his career and presidency.</li></ul>Director Ali Abbasi's "The Apprentice" presents a dramatized origin story for Donald Trump (played by Sebastian Stan), who, in the span of a few decades, goes from a nobody to a New York real-estate tycoon under the guidance of his lawyer, Roy Cohn (Jeremy Strong).Though the movie doesn't delve into Trump's political aspirations — it ends right when author Tony Schwartz begins to discuss ghostwriting the 1987 book "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-art-of-the-deal-donald-trump-leadership-2017-1">The Art of the Deal</a>" with Trump — we see how the main lessons from Cohn would be Trump's guiding principles through his career and into his presidency, including attack, attack, attack; deny everything, admit nothing; and always claim victory.That "always claim victory" rule came into play during the 2020 presidential election. After his loss, Trump maintained that the election was stolen from him and that he'd actually won over Joe Biden.Soon after, Pro-Trump insurrectionists attacked the US Capitol in an attempted coup on January 6, 2021, that left four dead. Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-denies-responsibility-jan-6-reaffirms-support-mccarthy-leaked-call-2022-4">denied responsibility for the January 6 insurrection</a> and publicly <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/videotaped-remarks-the-attack-the-united-states-capitol-the-certification-the-electoral">condemned</a> it as a "heinous attack" that left him "outraged by the violence, lawlessness, and mayhem."<div type="image" title="trump speaking in nevada 2024" height="683" width="1024" msid="114227281" hostid="261" sizebytes="45562"></div>The 2024 presidential election, in which Trump seeks to reclaim the presidency against Vice President Kamala Harris, is now less than a month away.The question of whether Trump will accept the results of this election remains unclear. In May, Trump said he'd <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/02/politics/donald-trump-accept-2024-election-results/index.html">accept the results if "everything's honest."</a> A month later, at the first debate with President Joe Biden, he was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/trump-2024-election-results">unwilling to say if he would accept the results or not</a>. In August, he told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmfGRdlBq38">CBS News</a> he would accept the results if they were "fair and free."In a recent interview promoting "The Apprentice," Abbasi, who has been studying Trump since he signed on to make the film in 2018, weighed in on whether he believes Trump will accept the results in the event of a loss."I saw, like everyone else, what happened on January 6, which was horrific," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-apprentice-ali-abbasi-director-donald-trump-movie-challenges-2024-10">he told Business Insider</a>. "And I have a feeling that a lot of people got away with insane stuff. Look at that footage.""When you see that, you think, why would they change their opinion about this election? Why would they magically accept this when they didn't accept that?" Abbasi continued.<div type="image" title="Maria Bakalova as Ivana Trump and Sebastian Stan as Donald Trump in &quot;The Apprentice.&quot;" height="675" width="1200" msid="114227280" hostid="261" sizebytes="66734"></div>"But somehow, I'm an optimist," he added. "I was optimistic when people told me not to do this movie, or when people said no one would buy this movie. So, I really hope that everyone learned their lesson on January 6th. I hope to think that even though people may be tempted to do that again, they know what the consequences are, and they don't do it."In August 2023, Trump was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-january-6-criminal-indictment-charges-explained-2023-7">indicted on four charges in connection to January 6,</a> including conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction or an attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, and conspiracy against rights. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-hit-with-revised-january-6-indictment-jack-smith-2024-8">A year later</a>, the four counts were revised to remove some of the alleged conduct that may now be protected by presidential immunity. Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/03/politics/trump-not-guilty-plea-january-6-charges-smith/index.html">pleaded not guilty</a>.After interviewing Abbasi, Business Insider reached out to Trump for comment. A spokesperson for the former president slammed the movie."This 'film' is pure malicious defamation, should never see the light of day, and doesn't even deserve a place in the straight-to-DVD section of a bargain bin at a soon-to-be-closed discount movie store," Trump communications director Steven Cheung said in a statement. "It belongs in a dumpster fire.""The Apprentice" is now playing in theaters.

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