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Days after Trump won his way to the White House, becoming the 47th President of the United States, the US Federal Reserve slashed the interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them within the range of 4.5-4.75%. This is the second time this year that the Fed has lowered the interest rates, after cutting them down by 50 basis points in September 2024. u Fed chair Jerome Powell noted that monetary policy remains tight as inflation remains elevated at 2.4% as of September 2024, slightly above the 2% mark set by the commission. However, the Fed remained optimistic about the current state of the economy. "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at 2% over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) noted in its press release. The rate cut was along widely anticipated lines, although experts were wary of the Fed's way ahead, given that Donald Trump has been elected as the US President. In the past, he has, on multiple occasions, expressed his desire to yield greater influence on the Fed, apart from publicly criticizing Powell. However, Powell continued to stand his ground, noting that Trump cannot legally sack him. He believed in keeping the Fed independent, at least until his tenure as governor ends in 2028. He highlighted that even if he is explicitly asked by Trump to quit, he won't do so. <h2>Trump's regime to inch up inflation?</h2> Trump's electoral promises, if translated into policies, could spell disaster for the Fed's effort to curtail inflation. Reportedly, Trump has promised to levy aggressive tariffs against US trading partners, particularly China, and even extend his 2017 tax cuts. This could mean higher levels of the federal deficit, which would push up prices, wages, and hence, inflation, even as the Fed tries to consistently bring it under control. Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that it wasn't a surprise when the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. The Fed had given enough clues, and the market too had anticipated these rate cuts. "However, what was surprising was how the <keyword id="23863852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-10-year-bond-yields" source="keywords">US 10-year bond yields</keyword> moved over the last one and a half months, which have been rising relentlessly from 3.6% to almost 4.5% despite the 50 bps cut in the last Fed meeting. It seems that the market is anticipating slower rate cuts going ahead, and maybe there are even chances of inflation rising. The bond yields have cooled off and slipped below the 4.335% mark. This should be bullish for emerging markets like India," he added.

US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump's victory to have no impact on policy decisions

<keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> are navigating choppy waters as global economic shifts, from rate cuts to evolving political climates, create new pressure points across the financial landscape, according to a recent report by ANI attributed originally to the Union Bank of India. The domestic stock and bond markets showed signs of strain, with <keyword id="19910363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bond-yields" source="keywords">bond yields</keyword> witnessing slight adjustments. India’s 10-year government bond yield dipped to 6.82%, a decrease from the previous session, reflecting cautious investor sentiment as the markets react to shifting global indicators. Meanwhile, the 5-year bond yield remained steady at 6.76%, a signal of lingering hesitation amid economic unpredictability. In the currency market, the rupee faced a notable decline, ending the day at ₹84.3725 against the US dollar, slipping from its prior close of ₹84.2800. Market analysts point to significant capital outflows as a key factor, with investors moving funds to perceived safer assets overseas. This migration has weighed heavily on the rupee, underlining the currency’s vulnerability in an environment of global economic flux. India’s stock market bore the brunt of this volatility, with key indices falling over 1%, effectively erasing the gains of a previous rally. This abrupt drop reportedly reflects renewed investor anxiety, largely triggered by the recent <keyword id="20189882" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-presidential-election" source="keywords">US presidential election</keyword> results. Experts suggest that the election has introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty, not only for the US economy but for global markets, impacting everything from policy decisions to investor sentiment. Analysts are also keeping a close eye on upcoming decisions by central banks, which will likely shape the path forward for the Indian equities market. Commodities showed contrasting trends, with Brent crude prices falling on lower demand expectations, as economic indicators point toward cautious spending globally. Gold, on the other hand, experienced a modest rise as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets, highlighting a shift towards risk aversion among market participants. Globally, major central banks made coordinated efforts to sustain economic growth, with the Bank of England (BoE) announcing a 25 basis-point cut, lowering its benchmark rate to 4.75%. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) largely backed this move to counter inflation, which has been declining, albeit gradually. Across the Atlantic, the US Federal Reserve mirrored this action with its own 25 basis-point cut, a sign of confidence in the ongoing economic recovery. Both rate cuts, though modest, signal a global trend towards caution as economies work to balance growth with stability. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) maintained its supportive stance. Governor Pan Gongsheng sought to reassure foreign investors by reaffirming the PBoC’s commitment to growth-oriented policies. Pan emphasized enhanced communication and pledged to open China’s financial services sector further, aiming to attract more international participants. Europe, meanwhile, faced mixed economic signals. Germany reported a steep 2.5% drop in industrial production in September, signalling a slowdown in manufacturing, while the Eurozone saw a mild 0.5% rise in retail sales, reflecting cautious consumer optimism in the region. Adding another layer to the global economic landscape, the European Union’s Climate Change Service warned that 2024 could be the hottest year on record, underscoring urgent climate challenges just as the UN COP29 climate summit approaches. The summit, set to take place in Azerbaijan, aims to rally increased funding for climate action, though tempered expectations linger in light of recent US political shifts. On the domestic front, Niti Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam spoke about India’s potential role in pivotal global trade agreements, specifically the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). These partnerships, Subrahmanyam suggested, could bolster India’s Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector, which currently accounts for 40% of India’s exports, offering a strategic advantage for Indian trade in an interconnected world. As the Indian markets digest these developments, experts believe continued volatility could be the theme for the coming months. (with ANI inputs)

Indian markets under pressure as global rate cuts stir uncertainty, new report says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>It sure seems like <keyword id="19959118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Twitter" source="keywords">Twitter</keyword> is more likely to show content from <keyword id="20052066" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Republican" source="keywords">Republican</keyword> or right-wing accounts.</li><li>That's the conclusion from two new reports in The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal.</li></ul>Is X, the service many of us still call <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-twitter">Twitter</a>, more likely to show users political posts from Republicans, or right-leaning accounts? Yes. Probably. That's the conclusion from two different deep dives published in The Washington Post and The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/x-twitter-political-content-election-2024-28f2dadd?mod=hp_lead_pos3">Wall Street Journal</a> on Tuesday. Next question: Is Twitter doing this intentionally, at the behest of owner <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk">Elon Musk</a>? That one is harder to answer. Both questions matter, obviously, because we're a week away from the <keyword id="20189882" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-presidential-election" source="keywords">US presidential election</keyword>. And while <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-advertisers-cannes-speech-tweets-twitter-x-peter-kafka-2024-6">Twitter has become a financial disaster under Musk's ownership</a>, it still remains an important news hub for many millions of people. Meanwhile, Musk, who used to support Democrats, has thrown himself completely behind Donald <keyword id="19906203" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Trump" source="keywords">Trump</keyword>'s campaign. He says "<a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1840409051357696324">Democracy is over</a>" if Trump loses. Neither the Journal nor the Post want to draw a direct line between Musk's politics and Twitter's operations. But there are certainly some suggestions of dotted lines. I've asked Twitter for comment. The details: Both papers used software to analyze what users see on Twitter. The Post looked at a year-plus of tweets from top congressional accounts; the Journal created 14 brand-new Twitter accounts, controlled by bots and spread throughout the US. The Post's conclusion: Tweets from congressional accounts across the spectrum are getting less attention than they did a year ago. But Republican tweets are much more likely to go viral than Democrats. The Journal's findings don't exactly sync with the Post. It finds that its theoretical new users, who told Twitter they are not interested in politics, saw their feeds clogged with <keyword id="20531476" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="political-content" source="keywords">political content</keyword> anyway. And while it says Kamala Harris' campaign was the most-seen account, the platform skewed right overall: "Ten of the other top 14 most-seen leaned right, including Trump's, and overall, pro-Trump content appeared about twice as frequently as pro-Harris material." What accounts for the right-leaning shift? Neither paper wants to say definitively. But they both hover around two possibilities, which aren't mutually exclusive: Theory 1: Twitter is showing users what users want to see. That's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1807089883602956465">the argument Musk makes himself.</a> And there is decent logic behind it. For starters, even before Musk bought Twitter,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2025334119"> its own researchers found that the "political right enjoys higher amplification compared to the political left"</a> on the platform. And it's entirely plausible that some left-leaning users have left the platform during Musk's ownership, in part because he reinstated accounts from right-leaning users, including Trump himself. Conservatives may also be flocking to it for the same reason. And those users may be more likely to engage with right-leaning content, prompting the site's algorithm to show them more of it — the same way all social media sites generally work with popular content. Theory 2: Twitter is showing users what Musk wants them to see. This is a notion that some current and former Twitter users believe, though there's no direct proof that it's the case. But there is plenty of precedent for it, since Musk has repeatedly moved the platform according to his whims in the past. Most famously, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/musk-changed-twitter-algorithm-tweets-didnt-get-attention-book-2024-2">Musk ordered engineers to highlight his own tweets after the 2023 Super Bowl</a>, as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.platformer.news/">Platformer's</a> Zoe Schiffer has reported. Musk has also used the site to host interviews with political figures he's interested in, including a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/desantis-campaign-launch-on-twitter-spaces-off-to-gltichy-start-2023-5">buggy chat with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2023</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzWjFzRMQNA">one with Trump this summer</a>. The Journal also reports that "more recently, Musk complained that a fraction of users saw his livestreams," and compelled his engineers to promote those chats on the site. Correction: October 29, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misattributed the detail about Musk complaining about his livestream views. The Journal reported it, not the Post.

Elon Musk is backing Trump. Is Musk's Twitter backing Trump, too?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Election Day is just two days away.</li><li>Harris and Trump are campaigning in swing states as they make their final appeals to voters.</li></ul>With Election Day on Tuesday, the end is in sight for what has been a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-presidential-debate-takeaways-2024-9">contentious US presidential race</a> between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.More than 68 million Americans have already cast their ballots, a stunning figure that demonstrates the high interest and high stakes in a contest that has had more twists and turns than any presidential contest in recent memory.Throughout the campaign, Trump has benefited from unease over the economy, a consistently top issue for voters. When President Joe Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee, it was his biggest vulnerability, despite low unemployment and consistent job gains after the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.Inflation has been driving much of the voter anxiety about the economy. Although wages have increased in recent years, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/07/briefing/us-job-market-biden-ev-push.html">higher prices</a> have affected the finances of millions.After Biden stepped aside as the nominee in July and Harris became the Democratic Party standard bearer, she immediately focused on the issue, vowing to attack price gouging and unveiling a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-us-economy-would-look-like-with-trump-biden-presidency-2024-5">broad economic plan</a> of her own.It wasn't long before Harris began to narrow the gap between the Democrats and the GOP in the presidential race.Now, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-15-days-swing-states-polling-2024-10">in its final days</a>, the race remains tight, with both candidates virtually tied in the swing states as they make their last appeals to voters.<h2 id="50876ac4-ebc3-448d-bba2-b26367be04b6">The battleground states remain close</h2>Harris' clearest path to reach 270 electoral votes — and an overall victory — is to sweep every Democratic stronghold and blue-leaning state while also winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District.<div type="image" title="Vice President Kamala Harris." height="5504" width="8256" msid="114911575" hostid="261" sizebytes="1811384"></div>Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin form a critical core of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-blue-wall-economic-message-unions-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin-2024-10">the "blue wall" of states</a> that backed Democratic presidential nominees from 1992 until 2012, but have more recently been less reliable for Democrats.The three states — which both Harris and Trump have crisscrossed in their hunt for votes — contain urban, suburban, and rural areas that will be key for each candidate in the race.(Pennsylvania offers 19 electoral votes, while Michigan has 15, and Wisconsin has 10. Nebraska's 2nd offers one vote, which could be decisive for Harris.)In 2016, Trump breached the blue wall, winning all three states by making inroads with working-class voters that had previously supported former President Barack Obama, including a critical bloc of independents and union workers.But in 2020, Biden <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-sweeps-pennsylvania-michigan-wisconsin-battleground-states-election-2020-11">flipped the blue wall states</a> back into the Democratic column, but only narrowly. That year, Biden also won Nebraska's Omaha-anchored 2nd District, and recent polling <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nebraska/2/">suggests</a> that Harris may, in fact, also hold an advantage there.Harris has directed much of her energy on these states, where she'll need to perform well to counter Trump's stronger standing in the Sun Belt.<h2 id="334dda81-d219-41e5-bd70-2bd8ffaf260b">The Sun Belt states</h2>Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-sun-belt-gains-trump-swing-states-polls-2024-8">appeared favored</a> to win Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina when he was running against Biden. But Harris' candidacy activated young and minority voters who were unenthusiastic about Biden, allowing her to broaden the Democratic map.As a result, the Sun Belt states remain competitive. Republicans <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024">appear to have built an early-vote advantage</a> in Nevada. However, Election Day turnout and the direction of the remaining mail-in ballots remain anyone's guess.Voters in the Sun Belt have been focused on the economy and immigration, two issues that benefit Trump. But Harris has managed to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/30/us/elections/trump-harris-economy-poll.html">cut into Trump's edge</a> on economic issues while also polling strongly on issues like abortion, democracy, and supporting the middle class.<h2 id="f8034860-3827-40ca-abe2-4b0ee46c261d">We could see a historic gender gap</h2>Shortly before Biden left the race, he held a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/26/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html">small advantage</a> with women, while Trump fared much better with male voters.However, with Harris as the Democratic nominee — and the potential for the United States to elect its first-ever female president — the country will likely see a historically large gender gap once all the votes are counted.<div type="image" title="Former President Donald Trump at a rally." height="4328" width="6648" msid="114911576" hostid="261" sizebytes="731590"></div>Harris' robust female stems, in part, from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-beyonce-abortion-reproductive-rights-trump-allred-2024-10">abortion rights</a>. The Supreme Court in 2022 overturned Roe v. Wade, sending the issue of abortion back to the states. Now, millions of women live in states with near-total abortion bans, while millions of other women live in states where abortion rights have been strengthened.In the closing days of the race, Harris has heavily emphasized the issue, which also helped Democrats in the 2022 midterms.Meanwhile, Trump has appeared on podcasts that appeal to conservative-leaning male listeners and seems to have attracted some significant support from young Black and Latino men, <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://api.genforwardsurvey.com/download/442/?f=true&amp;_gl=1*jq7n7p*_ga*OTI5MzUxOTAzLjE3Mjk2OTUzMzc.*_ga_CSCXTK5ECE*MTcyOTY5NTMzNi4xLjEuMTcyOTY5NjQ4NS4wLjAuMA">according to polling</a>.The huge gender gap is illustrated in a recent top-rated national poll.A late October <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/27/us/elections/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html">New York Times/Siena College survey</a> of likely voters showed Trump ahead of Harris by 14 points among men (55% to 41%), while Harris held a 12-point edge over Trump (54% to 42%) with women. Overall, the survey showed the race tied, with the candidates each earning 48% support from respondents.

The US presidential election is 2 days away. Here's where things stand.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Former President Donald Trump bested Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.</li><li>Trump won largely by breaching Democrats' "blue wall."</li></ul>Former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> won a second term in office, overcoming an intense level of political opposition — as well as doubts over his fitness for office — by driving home a message that he would be the best candidate for Americans' pocketbooks.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/FoxNews/status/1854053633198825482">Fox News</a> called the race early Wednesday morning. A little under four hours later, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/CNN/status/1854109735076676021">CNN</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/NBCPolitics/status/1854109434735169912">NBC News</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/CBSNews/status/1854111079984501068">CBS News</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/ABCPolitics/status/1854111153305088285">ABC News</a> also called a Trump victory after the result in Wisconsin put Trump over the 270 electoral votes he needed to win the presidency.In defeating Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a>, Trump will return to the White House after voters ousted him from office in the 2020 election.Trump had essentially been running for president since his 2020 loss. He sought to overturn Joe Biden's victory and was impeached by the US House of Representatives for "incitement of insurrection" over his role in the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021. (He was later acquitted by the US Senate.)In November 2022, Trump launched his presidential campaign on the heels of a disappointing night for the GOP, as the party failed to retake the Senate and only barely won back a House majority. But he used the head start to hammer potential GOP primary opponents and gradually reaffirmed his standing as the party's leader.Trump easily dispatched top figures like Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ron-desantis-wife-kids-family-photos">Ron DeSantis</a> of Florida and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nikki-haley-family-husband-kids-immigrant-parents-photos">Nikki Haley</a>, the former ambassador to the UN, in the 2024 GOP primaries, which further strengthened his hand as he eyed a general-election rematch against Biden.But Biden's exit from the race — following a disastrous <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happened-biden-trump-debate-takeaways-2024-6">debate against Trump</a> in June — paved the way for Harris' candidacy. The vice president quickly consolidated Democratic support and attracted the sort of donor base that was able to compete directly with GOP megadonors.Still, Trump continued to hold a polling advantage on the economy throughout the general-election race, which for many voters overrode concerns over his behavior while in office.And despite Harris' strong start and her robust campaign apparatus, she was still unable to overcome Trump's enduring level of support from his conservative base.Addressing his supporters in West Palm Beach, Florida, early Wednesday morning, before the race was called, Trump said his election victory would usher in the "golden age of America" and vowed to "help our country heal.""America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate," he added.Trump's return to the White House is also poised to have profound effects on the judiciary.Should either Associate Justices <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/clarence-thomas-takes-aim-at-osha-2024-7">Clarence Thomas</a> or Samuel Alito retire from the bench within the next four years, Trump has the potential to name at least one more conservative jurist to the court. And if he is able to appoint two additional justices, it means that a majority of the court would consist of his appointees — a stunning level of influence that could have reverberations for generations.

Trump wins the 2024 presidential election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Markets are bracing for the US presidential election amid a tight race between Vice President Harris and former President Donald Trump.</li><li>The US dollar is in firm focus as traders tread cautiously ahead of the polls.</li></ul>Markets are holding their breath at the start of a big week.The US presidential election on Tuesday is the biggest event this week, and traders are firmly focused on a jittery dollar on Monday amid a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.On Monday, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index">US Dollar Index</a> — which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies — was 0.5% lower at 3:27 a.m. ET.Meanwhile, the US dollar was 0.6% lower against the Japanese yen and the euro was 0.5% higher than the dollar.The dollar lost ground after weekend polls showed the odds of a Republican sweep falling, and the likelihood of a Democratic win with a split Congress increasing, Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ig.com/sg/news-and-trade-ideas/aud-usd-looks-to-us-election-for-relief-241104">trading platform IG,</a> wrote on Monday.Polls that show Trump's odds falling would put pressure on the dollar. This is because Trump, the Republican candidate, has pledged to impose <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-trade-tax-proposal-inflation-interest-rates-outlooks-predictions-2024-7">wide-sweeping tariffs on imports</a>, which would stem currency outflow and drive up inflation and interest rates — which would support the greenback."This shift has weighed on the US dollar, as traders unwind some of the 'USD <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-djt-bitcoin-harris-election-odds-betting-kalshi-polymarket-2024-11">Trump Trade</a>' premium," wrote Sycamore, referring to the weekend poll.Cash trade in US Treasuries trade was closed in Asian trading hours as markets in Japan were closed for a public holiday.<h2 id="43e035ed-ee9e-417b-ab2c-dcd98ece54aa">Fed meeting and China stimulus</h2>The US elections aren't all that's influencing the markets this week.The US Federal Reserve is also set to hold its interest rate-setting meeting on Wednesday and Thursday.Regardless of who wins the election, the Fed is expected to cut key rates by 25 basis points, according to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/federal-reserve-cut-rates-by-25-basis-points-next-two-meetings-2024-10-29/">Reuters poll</a> of 111 economists.Factors driving the potential cut include Friday's jobs data, which showed the US economy added just <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/october-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-11">12,000 jobs in October</a> — far lower than the forecast of 106,000 jobs. Meanwhile, inflation has cooled over the last few months."The Fed is more relaxed about inflation and is putting more focus on the jobs market as it attempts to secure a soft landing for the economy," analysts at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://think.ing.com/articles/fed-to-cut-25bp-irrespective-of-election-outcome/">ING wrote in a note on Friday.</a>Since Joe Biden will still be president until January 20, macro newsflow would still drive the Fed's interest rate decisions until December, the ING analysts added.On the other side of the world, China is expected to greenlight a fresh round of stimulus as its Standing Committee of National People's Congress — its top legislative body — meets from Monday through Friday.The world's second-largest economy has been mired in a prolonged economic downturn amid an epic property crisis. In late September, it announced <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">aggressive stimulus</a> to boost its economy, but analysts say much more is needed to drive flagging consumption.This week, China's legislative body would be considering a plan to raise $1.4 trillion in extra debt over the next few years to fund a part of an economic rescue package, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/eyeing-us-election-china-considers-over-14-trillion-extra-debt-over-next-few-2024-10-29/">Reuters</a> reported on Tuesday, citing two sources with knowledge of the matter.The amount could be increased if Trump wins the presidential race, underscoring the outsized influence of the US election on the rest of the world."US election outcomes and the resulting tariff risks are consequential to China equity via the intertwined economic, currency, policy, earnings, and valuation channels," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote on Monday.

The US dollar is jittery ahead of a big week, and there's more to it than the presidential election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's hybrid warfare tactics against the US and Europe are reaching new levels.</li><li>The disinformation efforts seek to influence elections and stir chaos in domestic politics.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/front-line-nato-allies-baltics-face-russian-hybrid-threats-2024-6">Russian disinformation and interference</a> — hybrid warfare tactics — are on the rise and again showed up in the US presidential election, but this is a problem for more than just America.Earlier this week, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that Russia was conducting "an intensifying campaign of hybrid attacks across our allied territories, interfering directly in our democracies, sabotaging industry, and committing violence," echoing long-standing concerns.Russian tactics were on full display in the 2024 US presidential election. On Tuesday, various polling sites in five battleground states were the targets of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-poll-bomb-threats-russia-election-harris-trump-2024-11">hoax bomb threats from Russian email domains</a>, the FBI said, and that was only part of Russian actions.Georgia's Secretary of State accused Moscow of being "up to mischief," saying that "they don't want us to have a smooth, fair and accurate election, and if they can get us to fight among ourselves, they can count that as a victory."The Russian embassy in Washington denied the accusations as "malicious slander" and said "Russia has not interfered and does not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries," including the US, but such activities are well documented.<h2 id="193769f6-1321-4ffb-b08c-2325bce96246">Rising levels of interference</h2><div type="image" title="Russian President Vladimir Putin and then-US President Donald Trump sit in chairs opposite each other, shaking hands." height="3327" width="4889" msid="115115440" hostid="261" sizebytes="445288"></div>Experts and officials began to seriously take note of efforts by Russia and other US adversaries, such as China and Iran, to disrupt US politics in 2016, and it's continually gotten worse."Undoubtedly we've seen an uptick in the scope and scale and, really, the kind of brazenness of Russian election interference in the information environment," Doug Livermore, a member of the US special operations community and the director of engagements at the Irregular Warfare Initiative, told Business Insider.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2024/04/26/russias-hybrid-war-against-the-west/index.html">Hybrid warfare</a> covers a range of tactics, such as assassinations, espionage, cyberattacks, electoral interference, and disinformation, intended to deniably influence or disrupt national security and domestic affairs.2016 saw the rising influence of Russian bot farms and mass disinformation while the 2020 election saw major efforts by Russia and other US foes to stoke violence and unrest, particularly as then-President Donald Trump contested the results and inspired the January 6th insurrection on the US Capitol.A month prior to the 2024 election, the National Intelligence Council released a report <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/NICM-Declassified-Foreign-Threats-to-US-Elections-After-Voting-Ends-in-2024.pdf">warning that Russia, China, and Iran were better equipped to influence the election</a> and undermine confidence in the results due to lessons from 2020; the council cited a range of tactics that could be used, including cyberattacks, artificial intelligence, and encouragement of electoral chaos and violence.<div type="image" title="capitol riot january 6" height="1666" width="2500" msid="115115445" hostid="261" sizebytes="414688"></div>Then, on Monday, the head of the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said disinformation was being spread by US adversaries "at a greater level than ever before."The efforts were designed to prompt distrust, fear, and misunderstanding in American voters and raise doubts over the integrity of US democracy. The 2024 presidential election was likely of particular interest to Russia, though, because of what was on the line: <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-win-clocking-ticking-on-ukraine-aid-2024-11">US support for Ukraine</a>, of which Trump has been less supportive.<h2 id="a4700f32-0a7c-4d04-93ea-ed4b4b837c59">More than an American problem</h2>This hybrid warfare is a broader problem for other Western countries, too. In recent months, Russia was accused of attempting to undermine Moldova's election in favor of a pro-Moscow candidate, using tactics such as a vote-buying scheme, organizing transportation to get Russians to vote at Moldovan missions in other countries, and cyberattacks and fake bomb threats to out-of-country voting operations.Russia was also recently accused of attempting to interfere in the Republic of Georgia's parliamentary election, as well as elections in France, the UK, Germany, and others. The big difference between <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-west-must-respond-to-russias-rapidly-escalating-hybrid-warfare/">how Russia engages in hybrid warfare in the US versus some European democracies</a> comes down to the political systems that exist in those countries, Livermore said. In the US' two party system, Russia's focuses on creating discontent within a certain party or between the parties.<div type="image" title="An older woman puts a paper ballot in a box at a voting location in a basketball gym." height="5119" width="7678" msid="115115442" hostid="261" sizebytes="993200"></div>In European democracies, Russia's focus often appears to be creating cracks within how the various parliamentary parties interact and form coalitions. Pro-European Union or NATO groups or candidates are often targeted, too, as was the case in Moldova's election.Across the board, Russia is opportunistic. "They don't really care about the ideology of the organizations," Livermore said, so long as it "advances the Kremlin's interests."These interference efforts also undermine democracy more generally, working in favor of autocratic governments. In the run-up to the US presidential election, Chinese state media emphasized deep divisions, dysfunction, and fears of violence in the US.The state-run Beijing Daily, for example, wrote: "the US election, once considered a highlight of the so-called 'beacon of democracy,' may now become the starting gun of 'social unrest.'"Livermore said such efforts allow Russia and China to indict democracy in favor of their authoritarian governments. Notably, experts have assessed Russia, China, and Iran are growing increasingly closer in efforts to challenge the US-led world order. North Korea, too, is right there with them.<h2 id="68359602-dfe7-4892-949e-9a8712a6b38f">Weakening the intended effect</h2><div type="image" title="Vice President Kamala Harris stands at a podium delivering her concession speech." height="3182" width="4773" msid="115115448" hostid="261" sizebytes="1578158"></div>After it Trump won the presidency, Vice President Kamala Harris conceded quickly. Her call for a peaceful transfer of power was echoed by President Joe Biden."For over 200 years, America has carried on the greatest experiment in self-government in the history of the world," he said, "where the people, the people vote and choose their own leaders and they do it peacefully. And where in a democracy, the will of the people always prevails."Livermore said that because this election's results, unlike in 2020, aren't being contested, that could mean failure for any hybrid warfare tactics from US adversaries in the months ahead of Inauguration Day. He said Russia, China, and Iran were likely "hoping that they were going to have a couple of months of chaos in the US," but that is now much less likely.US stability in the transition of power can be attributed to lessons learned from 2020, from local and federal governments to law enforcement, on how to maintain trust in the election process and suppress post-election violence.

A worsening kind of Russian warfare was on display in the US presidential election, but it's a much bigger problem

Ever since Donald Trump won the 2024 US presidential elections, bitcoin has been surging, going up over 40% in the last two weeks. Recently, the cryptocurrency soared past $97,000, having risen 8.32% in just the last 7 days, and is currently trading at $96,906.09. The overall crypto market is also buoyant, with the crypto volume jumping 10.06% over the past 24 hours to touch $198.83 billion. The markets are enthused about Bitcoin's prospects going ahead, given that Trump has hinted towards establishing a dedicated role in the White House for deliberating crypto policies. Trump has been vocally pro-crypto and had promised, during his presidential campaign, to scale back <keyword id="24085738" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crypto-regulations" source="keywords">crypto regulations</keyword> and fire SEC chair Gary Gensler, who had initiated a crackdown on digital assets in the US. The crypto lobby in the US has been advocating for crypto-friendly SECs and access to banks. In a bid to do so, crypto companies have pumped in over $119 million to support pro-crypto candidates. Says Edul Patel, co-founder and CEO of Mudrex, "Market sentiment grew stronger from Bloomberg's report of Trump’s plan to establish a dedicated White House role for crypto policy. The anticipation of faster regulatory clarity coupled with BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF options projecting a $176k price target by 2026 has driven BTC’s price to the $95K milestone and beyond." The ongoing rally is not restricted to just bitcoin but also extended to Solana and XRP, which gained 10.85% and 59.02%, respectively, over the last 7 days. But does this mean that good times are coming for <keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> as well? Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives &amp; Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that bitcoin is a proxy for risk-taking in the markets. Bitcoin moving up means the risk appetite of investors is rising. Conversely, if it falls, then investors prefer safety." Both Nifty and Sensex have lost over 5% each over the last month. FIIs (<keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-institutional-investors" source="keywords">foreign institutional investors</keyword>) have also been scrambling out of Indian markets, having withdrawn Rs 1,14,445.89 crores during October 2024 and offloading Rs 34,348.30 crore so far in November. During trade today, Nifty and Sensex remained in red, with Nifty down by 0.74% and Sensex down by 0.6%. DIIs (domestic institutional investors) have been trying to keep the market afloat in both October and November, pumping in Rs 31,636.77 crore in Indian markets in November so far. Last month, DIIs infused Rs 1,07,254.68 crore in the Indian markets. According to an NSE report, by the end of the previous quarter, FPIs holding in NSE-listed companies stood at 36.3%, despite the seventh consecutive quarterly decline. Previously, FIIs holding in listed companies had hit a record high of 39.9% in December 2021. In contrast, DIIs are increasingly making headway into the Indian markets. Active Domestic Mutual Funds (DMFs) have been increasing their investments in the NSE-listed companies. Their ownership in these companies has risen from 12.4% in December 2021 to 15.7% as of September 30, 2024. Banks and insurance companies have also expanded their market share. Their ownership in NSE-listed companies has grown from 8.8% three years ago to 11% as of pr quarter.

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