This year's Oscars best-picture race is incredibly close - here's who will probably win

Will it be "The Revenant"? Will it be "Spotlight"? Will it be "The Big Short"?

Those are the questions swirling around Hollywood and in all likelihood your living room heading into Sunday's Oscars night.

The best-picture category is in a tight three-way race for the statue, with no clear favorite, which will allow for some much-needed drama on a night when many of the other categories are forgone conclusions.

A big reason there's so much conflict among the Oscar pundits: the key awards these films did (and didn't) win in the run-up, which are always good indicators of what will ultimately grab Oscars.

Here we analyze the best-picture category and predict who will take home the prize.