This year's Oscars best-picture race is incredibly close - here's who will probably win

Those are the questions swirling around Hollywood and in all likelihood your living room heading into Sunday's Oscars night.

The best-picture category is in a tight three-way race for the statue, with no clear favorite, which will allow for some much-needed drama on a night when many of the other categories are forgone conclusions.

A big reason there's so much conflict among the Oscar pundits: the key awards these films did (and didn't) win in the run-up, which are always good indicators of what will ultimately grab Oscars.

Here we analyze the best-picture category and predict who will take home the prize.