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This is the right time for PM Modi to make gains in industrial south. Here’s why

Dec 7, 2016, 13:23 IST

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Jayaram Jayalalithaa’s demise has given a political opening for Prime Minister Narendra Modi in one of India's most industrialized states.

Jayalalithaa, the political icon, who seized control of several Indian states at the expense of national parties such as Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party and the Indian National Congress. Modi tweeted that her passing "left a huge void in Indian politics,, and flew to the southern state to pay his respects.

Jayalalithaa died at 68 after a cardiac arrest and this could cause a reemergence of national parties in Tamil Nadu, which is a politically important and economically vital state of nearly 80 million people.

According to Sandeep Shastri, a political analyst and pro vice chancellor of Jain University in Bangalore, her powerful regional party will attempt to use her legacy to its advantage, but doesn't have anyone capable of replicating her popularity.

"In the short run, you may see a mask of stability, but in the long term I think there's going to be a reconfiguration in state politics. The primary beneficiary will be the BJP,” Shastri told Bloomberg.
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“BJP could see gains in the state during federal elections in 2019. To do well, a dramatic reshaping of the BJP's local party operations is needed,” N. Sathiya Moorthy, director of the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation think-tank's Chennai chapter said.

"They have to put their house in order,, he said. "They don't have candidates or organization in the state,” he added.

It has also being said that her passing also represents a "short-term opportunity, for rival Tamil party, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam but over the medium-to-long-term, he said, the major beneficiary will be Modi and his BJP.

A.R. Venkatachalapathy, a professor at the Madras Institute of Development Studies, said the BJP likely smells an opportunity and has been working over the past two months to capitalize on the situation.

"Whether they will win the elections in 2021 is not the question. They will try to become a player,” he said.
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Talking about the economic affect of her death, M.R. Venkatesh, a New Delhi-based independent policy analyst said, “the state may see political instability over the next few years as parties jostle for position. Economic growth could be stunted, corruption will definitely go up and foreign investors might even begin avoiding the state.”

"The state is headed towards political vacuum," Venkatesh said. "How it will be filled up is a critical question.”
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