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This is how to tell whether China is really heading in the right direction

Jan 28, 2016, 23:52 IST

A guard stands in front of the Great Hall of the People at sunrise March 6, 2004, where China's parliament, the National People's Congress, is meeting until March 14.Reuters

Economist Michael Pettis, a superstar of China analysis, wrote a must-read (but massive) blog post on the state of the Chinese economy and whether planned reforms are likely to work.

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There are a lot of uncertainties in terms of timing and policy implementation, he said.

What Pettis considers a certainty is how the world will know China's serious problems with debt and overcapacity are being dealt with.

From his blog post:

And it's only getting worse

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