This bookmaker is utterly convinced Britain's house prices are going to fall no matter what
Loughead is so convinced that this is the case, he has odds for anyone that wants to bet against him, as of June 11 he's offering:
- 8/13 - house prices will drop as of January 8, 2017.
- 6/5 - house prices will increase as of January 8, 2017.
This is compared to the odds he had as of February 8:
- 8/11 - based on a probability of 54.9% that house prices would decrease from Nationwide's average house price of £196,930.
- 11/10 - based on a 45.1% probability that house prices would increase on an annual basis when Nationwide releases its data on January 8, 2017.
Star Sports is the "biggest bookmaker you've never heard of" - they have a small but wealthy client base. They count footballers, "city boys" - basically brokers, traders and affluent people who work in London - and even "the odd billionaire" as customers. Star Sports regularly receives four-figure bets on anything from horse racing to betting on house prices. It has a turnover of £200 million annually.
When Loughead first told me over three months ago that he was convinced that house prices were going to fall year-on-year - I was very skeptical. After all, his argument seemed counterintuitive. Britain's property market has a severe supply and demand imbalance - there are too few properties to match up to the rampant demand for housing.
The average house price in Britain is currently at £292,000 ($422,099), according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics for March. Meanwhile, the average price to buy a home in London is now more than £550,000. Properties in London are now almost 60% more costly than they were prior to the 2008 financial crisis.
But over the last two months things have changed.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors warned that Britain's property prices are going to fall for the first time since 2012, and London's house prices will be affected the most. Developers are panicking because people aren't snapping up properties as quickly anymore and everyone is blaming a potential Brexit and the government's implementation in April of a new tax on people buying a second home. Various reports have shown a very clear drop off in instructions and people taking out mortgages during this time.
So now I think he has a pretty good case. And when I caught up with him over the phone, he told me why his bearish take on Britain's property market has nothing to do with a potential a Brexit and that professional institutions like RICS are using this as a "scapegoat" for problems brewing within the industry.
"The Brexit effect is a red herring," said Loughead in no uncertain terms."Sure it would affect some people but domestic customers, who are just looking to buy a home because they need a place to live do not care about waiting until after the EU referendum. I find it bizarre [that RICS thinks that Brexit is the cause for the potential property price fall].
"I suppose RICS is motivated by its membership to find a scapegoat for what's happening to housing at the moment but I think there are other problems in the housing market that will cause prices to fall. So I remain confident that property prices will reduce year-on-year.
"I understand why people think the market will rise because of lack of supply and lots of demand but there are many issues undermining the market and I cannot see any big rises happening this year."
And he may be right. The bets taken by Star Sports on whether house prices will rise or fall this year are based on the property price on January 8, 2017, compared to February 4, 2016.
So why does he think house prices will fall?
"The main reasons are the government's new Stamp Duty tax and widespread inaffordability of housing, as well as the restrictions on overseas ownership. The recent government incentivisation to invest in stocks and shares through the lower of capital gains tax and the tightening of affordability ratios from 4.75% down to 4.45% is also affecting the market," said Loughead.
And he has a point. Business Insider has pointed out several times through various reports how Britain's properties, especially in London, are quickly becoming unaffordable - house prices are far too high and people are not earning enough to keep up.
Basically the house-price-to-income ratio is completely screwed up and people need to take on more debt in order to get on the housing ladder.
Macro-research firm Fathom Consulting said this month that "property prices would need to fall by up to 40%, or household income grow at ten times its current pace for the next five years, in order to bring the ratio back to balance."
But if you don't believe the data, then you can bet against him. In fact, he said he has already taken several four-figure bets over the last few days from people that want to prove him wrong.