These 12 charts show why Italy's stagnant economy is poised to tear up the eurozone
The country's financial sector is on the brink of collapse, and a referendum on constitutional reforms in October has the potential to topple prime minister Matteo Renzi's government and cause an unprecedented political crisis.
All of this has sparked fears that Italy could be the country to spark the eventual collapse of the European Project, notably from notoriously bearish Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards, who describes Italy as the "weak point in the eurozone both economically and politically" in his weekly Global Strategy note.
Here's an extract from Edwards (emphasis ours):
My own view is that I believe it is only a matter of time before the eurozone project fractures. Clearly the UK referendum has not helped matters. For me the problem is Italy and France in that order. Why? Because you have got disaffected populations in ?too-big-to-fail economies? who are disillusioned with what the eurozone project has delivered in terms of employment and economic growth. AND much more significantly, you have major opposition parties who are committed to leaving the eurozone and who would be likely to do so if they were to attain power.
Edwards continues:
Italy simply does not appear to be able to grow inside the eurozone and more importantly probably never will. That is why after the next recession I believe a majority of Italians will have had enough of the eurozone experiment and vote in the radical Five Star Movement, whose openly stated policy is for Italy to leave the eurozone no one-sided negotiations with Germany will occur as they did with Greece. There will be no bluffs.
Italy's economy is so weak that it will eventually end up in a recession, which in turn will trigger political discontent and the rise of populism. That will push Italians to follow the UK and vote to leave the EU, setting off a domino effect across the whole of the continent, and eventually leading to the decline and fall of the European Union.
Check out the charts that show just why Edwards holds this belief, below.