There's something strange happening to the Maine lobster population this year - and it could drastically raise prices
Reports of fisherman hauling out record amounts of lobster over the past few years make it seem that lobster should be pretty cheap.
But that's last year. This year the price of lobster is going up thanks to changing water temperatures, experts have told Business Insider.
A lot of the lobsters people buy come from New England - specifically the Gulf of Maine, which produces 94% of America's lobsters. And for the most part lobsters are only harvested after the lobsters have grown and shed their shells. But changing ocean temperatures over the last few years have messed with when lobsters molt.
Basically, warmer water makes them molt earlier in the year, and back in 2012 New England's ocean was relatively warm thanks to a "ocean heat wave" that hit much of the East Coast, according to University of Maine research professor Richard Wahle.
This meant that lobsters matured earlier in the year. So when the summer fishing season started lots of lobster were ready for fisherman to catch.
These fisherman caught so many lobster that prices per pound plummeted to the lowest they've been since the 1930s:
But now, three years later, price is on the rise again because the harsh winter that recently hit New England dropped ocean temperatures around Maine to the lower end of the lobster comfort zone.The cold water delays when lobsters molt, so fisherman aren't pulling nearly as many lobsters in their traps as usual.
Which makes a nasty case of supply and demand for lobster lovers. Until more lobsters molt the supply will remain low, but people will still want their lobster bakes and lobster rolls. The price is already $1-$2 more expensive per pound than last year.
It also looks like the supply will remain low for the whole year. In a normal year lobsters molt twice, but because of the first molt coming so late, a second molt might not even happen.
"I predict that it will be a one molt season, based on temperatures," says University of Maine professor Bob Steneck.
This year Steneck thinks the one and only molt will occur around July or August, not enough time for the lobsters to grow enough for a second molt before winter hits and cooler temperatures slow down their growth.
And even if most of the lobster population participates in one big molt, overall landings for the year will probably still end up lower than usual - an odd turn for a haul that's been on the upswing since the early 90s:
This could be the start of a turning point for the American lobster market.Wahle is finding fewer lobster larva in the ocean, international demand for lobsters is rising, and lobsters are moving north to Canada as they move north as water temperatures rise.
Better get to cracking those shells while you can still afford it.