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There's a real chance that some of Labour's most prominent MPs risk losing their seats to UKIP

Nov 29, 2016, 14:53 IST

Labour MP Alan JohnsonReuters / Luke MacGregor

Some of Labour's most prominent MPs are at risk of losing their seats if UKIP enjoys a surge under its new leader, according to research.

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The analysis, by political academic Matthew Goodwin for the Sun, suggests that 20 seats are at particular risk, including former home secretary Alan Johnson.

Other names include shadow ministers Tristram Hunt, Gloria de Piero, and Caroline Flint, policy chief Jon Cruddas, and former chief whip Rosie Winterton.

Paul Nuttall was elected as UKIP's new leader on Monday in a landslide victory.

The Liverpudlian MEP vowed to replace Labour as the official opposition and become the "patriotic voice of working people," targeting traditional, working-class Labour supporters who voted for Brexit.

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Nuttall believes UKIP have an "open goal" when it comes to Labour, which campaigned to remain in the EU and whose position since has confused its voters.

The leader said on Tuesday that Labour "have a leader who will not sing the national anthem, a shadow chancellor who seems to admire the IRA more than he does the British Army, a shadow foreign secretary who sneers at the English flag and a shadow home secretary who seems to advocate unlimited immigration."

Goodwin's research identified 20 seats that are especially vulnerable to a working-class UKIP surge. He looked at the Labour constituencies where over 50% voted Leave in the EU referendum, and where UKIP are already in second or third place.

In some constituencies he identified, the Leave vote was significantly higher than 50%. It was 70% in Jon Cruddas' constituency of Dagenham & Rainham, and 70.5% in Gloria de Piero's Ashfield seat - and in both cases, the Labour majority is less than 20%.

Goodwin said those seats offer "the ideal mix of local conditions for UKIP."

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"These are the ones that I would be watching and where Corbyn could find himself under new pressure," he said.

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