At the beginning of August, only two teams have effectively secured playoff spots while 12 teams can go ahead and make other plans for October. That means there are a whopping 16 teams still battling for the final eight playoff spots.
If we use the playoff projection model of BaseballProspectus.com and consider 95% the cutoff for teams that are locks to make the playoffs, the Cardinals (99.7%) and Royals (94.6%) are the only teams in, with the Dodgers, Yankees, and Astros knocking on the door. At the other end, 12 teams have less than a 5% chance of making the playoffs and really have no shot (we're giving the White Sox the benefit of the doubt and rounding up).
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