Jim Rogash/GettyWith just two weeks left in the regular season, the New England Patriots remain the favorite to win this year's Super Bowl. But the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks are close behind according to the latest model by Nate Silver.
Using a rating system that accounts for margin of victory, home-field advantage, strength of schedule, and prior performance, and then simulating the rest of the season thousands of times, Silver determined the probability each team had of making the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.
The Patriots have a 26% chance to win the Super Bowl, unchanged from last week. The Seahawks now have a 19% chance to win it all and are the favorite in the NFC after winning four games in a row. The Broncos are a close third at 17%.
In all, just six teams still have a realistic chance (at least 5%) of winning this year's Super Bowl, including only two in the AFC:
- New England Patriots, 26%
- Seattle Seahawks, 19%
- Denver Broncos, 17%
- Arizona Cardinals, 11%
- Green Bay Packers, 6%
- Dallas Cowboys, 5%
The biggest loser this past week was the Green Bay Packers, dropping from 13% to just 6% after their ugly loss to the Buffalo Bills. The Philadelphia Eagles, losers of two in a row, are down to just 1% after being at 10% just two weeks ago.
The Patriots, Cardinals, Broncos, and Indianapolis Colts are the only teams to clinch playoff spots so far.
At the other end, 12 teams have either been eliminated from playoff contention or have less than a 1% chance of making the postseason. These teams are the Jets, Dolphins, Browns, Titans, Jaguars, Raiders, Redskins, Giants, Bears, Vikings, Buccaneers, 49ers, and Rams.
That leaves 16 teams still battling for the final eight playoff spots.