Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis could wipe out the airline industry's nascent recovery, experts say

• President Donald Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis threatens the meager gains made by the aviation industry in recent months, as renewed fears of the virus could hinder travel.
• Experts believe that the revelation itself won't greatly affect travel, but its outcome and resulting policy changes could end up hindering aviation's fragile recovery.
• The place of transmission will also determine how travel is impacted, especially if the president contracted the virus aboard Air Force One.

Thursday marked a glimmer of hope for the travel industry: The fifth busiest day for air travel in the US since March 21 set a positive tone for October, as struggling airlines gird themselves for a difficult holiday season.

But President Trump's Friday morning announcement that he and First Lady Melania Trump had tested positive for COVID-19 may wipe out that trend, and further jeopardize the American airline industry.

Aviation's nascent recovery is still incredibly fragile, as fears of new lockdowns and coronavirus outbreaks hinder advance bookings and threaten to sour the upcoming holiday travel season. In June, daily passenger numbers rose above 500,000 for the first time since March 21. Then, a summer of spreading disease stalled what many hoped would be a quick recovery.

The news of Trump's diagnosis itself won't impact Americans' travel choices, industry watchers say. "I don't believe the president getting COVID will affect travel in a material way," Henry Harteveldt, president of Atmosphere Research Group, told Business Insider.

But adding the president to the list of those infected could end up limiting Americans' ability to travel. Uncertainty surrounding quarantine rules and lockdowns remains the largest determining factor when making travel plans. Even with Thanksgiving less than two months away, travelers may be hesitant to invest money in non-refundable tickets when their destination could become embroiled in an outbreak, Harteveldt said.

Trump's diagnosis could encourage governors and other leaders to implement lockdowns and quarantine scenarios that would further stall aviation's growth.

"I'm really less worried about airline travel and more about the question, where would you possibly go that doesn't have restrictions put in place?" Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis at Teal Group, told Business Insider, when asked if Trump's diagnosis could increase fears of flying on airplanes.

Business travelers would likely be among the most impacted by Friday's revelation, as they are bound by their employer's travel rules. Business travel has been largely grounded since March, as companies don't want to take the risk of exposing their employees to the virus.

It's also the segment that airlines are relying on to make up for the lackluster summer. Business flyers typically help bridge the gap between Labor Day and Thanksgiving, a downtime for leisure flyers, and spend more than the average flyer when booking travel.

The point of transmission could also play a role in how travel is affected. If the president contracted the virus aboard Air Force One or while traveling, it could make potential flyers think twice about taking to the skies and put airlines on the offense to strengthen their health and safety procedures.

"If it is determined that the virus was spread on Air Force One, that may cause some people who are undecided or tentative about taking a trip to avoid traveling because they will say: Well, if the virus can spread on Air Force One, it still has a risk of spreading on a commercial plane," Harteveldt said.

Those fears would be largely unfounded, as both experts believe that the health and safety practices implemented by airlines – chief among them being face covering requirements – have made flying quite safe. The low incidence of flight attendants contracting COVID-19, Harteveldt explained, is one of many indicators that airlines have taken the right measures to avoid the spread of the virus on airplanes.

Air Force One likely also has all of the air filtration systems that a commercial airliner has, despite the old age of the modified Boeing 747 aircraft, since the fleet is meticulously maintained and upgraded by the US Air Force.

The possibility of Trump not recovering from COVID-19 could also spell trouble for aviation as it would break the myth that health officials have overplayed the danger of the virus. But that would also render the concerns of US airlines insignificant.

"If the president doesn't recover from coronavirus, I think the country is going to be facing much larger issues than people traveling," Harteveldt said.