Tesla Q3 deliveries preview: Wall Street expects a beat as Musk & Co. get their 'mojo' back

• Tesla's third-quarter vehicle deliveries are expected to exceed Wall Street estimates.
• Analysts cite strong demand in China and stable pricing as key factors for the positive outlook.

Tesla's upcoming third-quarter vehicle deliveries report should impress investors, according to Wall Street experts.

Analysts from Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and Wedbush all expect Tesla to deliver a beat when it reports deliveries later this week, which is expected to be announced Wednesday morning.

Tesla stock has been on a wild ride this year. At its lowest point in the first four months of 2024, it declined 43%, but it has since surged 82% and is up 4% year-to-date.

Investors will be laser-focused on Tesla's two upcoming catalysts: its third-quarter delivery report later this week and its robotaxi event on October 10.

Barclays: 'Concerns on fundamentals have dissipated'

Barclays analyst Dan Levy is expecting Tesla to report solid vehicle deliveries later this week, according to a recent note.

Levy said that thanks to expected strength in Tesla's China business, the company will announce third-quarter vehicle deliveries of 470,000, ahead of Wall Street estimates.

"Given the positive data points reported thus far in the quarter, particularly in China, we believe Tesla's sales trajectory is well understood and investors are expecting a stronger result," Levy said.

All-in, the delivery report should be a positive catalyst for Tesla stock, according to Levy, as he expects the stock to rise heading into its robotaxi day on October 10.

"We believe that a beat could drive further strength of the stock into Robotaxi Day, serving as a reminder that at least for now concerns on fundamentals have dissipated," Levy said.

Levy rates Tesla at "Equal Weight" with a $220 price target.

Goldman Sachs: Third-party data shows mixed trends

Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney lowered his third-quarter delivery target to 460,000 vehicles in a recent note.

Delaney observed that his estimate is slightly ahead of Visible Alpha Consensus Data of 457,000 vehicles.

Delaney had previously expected Tesla to deliver 475,000 vehicles in the quarter, but lowered that due to mixed trends from various regions, citing registration, insurance, and third party data.

"Regionally we believe that sales have been strong in China, flattish in the US, and weak in Europe on a you basis," Delaney said.

Delaney rates Tesla at "Neutral" with a $230 price target.

Wedbush: 'A major step in the right direction'

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a recent note that the "mojo is back at Tesla" as the company shows signs of rebounding from a slowdown in vehicle sales earlier this year

Ives saw positive signs in demand from China and a lack of price cuts in recent weeks.

"We believe 3Q will provide a solid rebound looking to 2H for the company as China continues to heat up and price/demand stabilization has continuously been seen throughout the quarter. We believe this quarter is a major step in the right direction for the Tesla story," Ives said.

Ives expects Tesla will beat consensus estimates of 462,000 vehicles delivered in the quarter and noted that "whisper numbers" are between 465,000 and 470,00 vehicles.

For the full-year, Ives expressed confidence that Tesla could hit 1.8 million deliveries, matching last year's numbers.

Ives rates Tesla at "Outperform" with a $300 price target.