- Severe clear-air turbulence has increased by 55% since 1979, moderate by 37%, and light by 17%.
- Clear-air turbulence is invisible and hard to forecast and it is predicted to double by 2050.
It's not just your imagination. Turbulence is indeed getting worse.
According to a new study by the Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading, UK, the occurrence of severe clear-air turbulence has increased by 55% in the past 40 years, while moderate turbulence has increased by 37%, and light by 17%.
The turbulence is considered severe when it causes "loose objects to move around the cabin and causes brief periods where effective control of the aircraft is impossible," according to the FAA. It's considered moderate when loose objects begin to move and people have a hard time moving around the cabin.
The increases have been tracked in some of the busiest air traffic areas in the world, over the North Atlantic, and over the continental US, since satellites began observing the atmosphere in 1979.
The FAA defines turbulence as "air movement created by atmospheric pressure, jet streams, air around mountains, cold or warm weather fronts, or thunderstorms."
Clear-air turbulence is not the kind you experience going through a storm. Rather, it's the invisible turbulence that happens when the skies are clear. It's hard to track before getting in the middle of it.
It can often be caused by wind shear, a sudden change in the speed and direction of the wind, which has been increasing in occurrence due to climate change. As wind shear gets worse, so does clear-air turbulence, with some weather researchers predicting it will double by 2050, with severe turbulence increasing the most.
Aside from being very uncomfortable, turbulence can be harmful to both the aircraft and the people inside. According to the National Center for Atmospheric Research, turbulence and its consequences — injuries, cabin and aircraft damage, maintenance, and delays — can cost airlines up to $500 million per year.
The FAA has tracked 163 serious injuries related to turbulence from 2009 to 2022, with the vast majority involving the planes' crew.