More people could move after the 2024 election — just like politics have pushed people to relocate for hundreds of years
- For hundreds of years, people have been hunting for the best food, shelter, and community.
- Factors like better homes and like-minded neighbors still push Americans to relocate today.
Many of the factors that motivate people to move today — including the desire to be governed by laws that resonate with their values, to live in an affordable neighborhood, and to secure a better job — are the same reasons our parents, grandparents, and great-great-grandparents packed up and moved, too.
Take the flow of people leaving pricey California cities for cheaper spots in Texas hoping to buy more affordable homes or politically conservative residents relocating from progressive cities in California and New York to more traditional Southern ones, where policies on fraught issues like gun control and abortion better align with their views.
The 2024 presidential election will potentially trigger even more people to move both within and outside of the US. A February 2024 Redfin survey of 500 real estate agents found that 32% had at least one client in 2023 who moved primarily due to local laws or politics.
"I know at least 10 people who have moved away from Texas in the last year, mainly because they don't agree with state laws," Andrew Vallejo, a Redfin agent working in Austin, said in the Redfin report. "They all moved to the West Coast, to blue areas where the policies align better with their personal views."
Americans move in protest
Politics and social movements have played a vital role in shifting American demography over the years, said James Gregory, a history professor at the University of Washington who studies moving as part of the institution's America's Great Migrations project.
He cited the two Great Migrations out of the American South between 1910 and the 1970s, in which African-Americans fled the region, in part, for political reasons, such as a surge in Jim Crow-era laws that targeted them for their race. White liberals also left the South during that time in search of more progressive places, he said, heading north and west.
Today, tensions around ideology and identity have also prompted migration, particularly among conservatives who are fleeing to red states in search of like-minded communities and more agreeable political policies, Gregory said.
On the flip side, progressives are also seeking out states that better align with their political beliefs.
In 2023, Texas native Jessica Hoxworth and her husband moved to Seattle partly in response to increasing conservatism in politics, along with the implementation of stricter abortion policies within the state.
"The most recent Roe v. Wade decision has further reinforced our need to get out of Texas in order to maintain bodily autonomy and safety," Hoxworth previously told Business Insider, adding, "I'm encouraging my friends to get out of Texas if they can."
Since the overturn of Roe v. Wade in 2022 — which made abortion a state issue without federal protection — there has been an increase of pro-choice residents moving from southern states like Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi — known for their stringent abortion laws — to northern and western states such as Washington, California, and Virginia, where abortion remains legal.
Movers are still on the hunt for cheaper homes
According to Gregory, one of the most common migration factors that pops up time and time again — including today — is Americans' never-ending quest for affordability and attainable housing.
Seeking a fresh start and an affordable place to buy a home, divorcée Janelle Crossan, a 44-year-old single mother, moved from Costa Mesa, California, to New Braunfels, Texas, in 2020.
"I paid $1,750 for rent in a crappy little apartment in California," Crossan told BI earlier this year. "Now, three years later, my whole payment, including mortgage and property taxes, is $1,800 a month for my three-bedroom house."
The search for affordable lifestyles dates back to the very founding of America, in which the first European immigrants arrived on US shores with a promise of more economic opportunity.
The desire for affordability and economic prosperity continued to motivate migration in the US. Many Americans started moving West after the Revolutionary War destroyed their lands and cut off import-export opportunities with England, according to The International Institute of Genealogical Studies. Nearly two centuries later, a stagnating economy would prove the primary factor in the decline of the post-World War II migration boom, Gregory said.
In the 2020s, with housing affordability at an all-time low, housing has reemerged as a leading force shaping migration patterns, as well as a significant focal point for policymakers and voters — it is likely to play a pivotal role in the 2024 election.
Another February 2024 survey from Redfin shows of the 3,000 US homeowners and renters commissioned by the brokerage, more than half (53.2%) say that housing affordability will impact their voting decisions in November.