It could take a decade for other automakers to catch Tesla — and none are 'leading contenders' just yet, experts say

• Automakers across the globe are racing to electrify.
• Many of them have their eye on beating Tesla at its own game.

It's hard to gauge which automaker will be the runner up to Tesla in the coming years — and there might not be one at all.

All of the electric car makers hoping to catch up to Tesla have their work cut out for them, a report from data firm Cloud Theory said Thursday, and it's unclear who will be able to withstand the next decades worth of challenges to get there.

"The honest answer is that nobody really knows," the report said.

Despite the auto industry's best efforts to fully electrify in the coming decade-plus, a number of hurdles stand in the way of all car companies, especially as they look to best Elon Musk's company.

Though Tesla's market share is waning, the firm still holds 56% of the US EV segment, data shows. It's the "800-pound gorilla in the EV space," Cloud Theory said, with a more-than 10-year head start on its hopeful competitors and a number of advantages over those who are just now getting their EV businesses rolling.

"Tesla is obviously the dominant player in the market right now and is well-positioned to maintain a leadership position," Rick Wainschel, VP of data science and analytics at Cloud Theory, said in a release. "The big question is which manufacturer will emerge to challenge Tesla's dominance. So far, no one else has emerged as a strong competitor."

Reality check

Pure-electric cars accounted for only about 8% of the vehicle market in the second quarter. EV sales are growing — they hit a record 300,000 sales in the US by Q3 — but it's happening at a less rapid pace than many in the industry were anticipating.

The percent of EVs that dealers sell within 30 days is declining, the number of days it takes to move EV inventory overall is on the rise, and EV price markups are reversing rapidly, all indications that demand is not red-hot, according to Cloud Theory. While some inventory build-up can be attributed to automaker production ramp ups, demand "is not keeping pace with this increase in supply," the firm said.

Some automakers' EV share is increasing healthily; by Q3, EVs accounted for 15.6% of BMW's sales, 12.7% of Audi's, and 12.6% of Volvo's, according to Cox Automotive, but Ford and Chevrolet, who are each spending billions of dollars to go electric, only saw EV shares of 4.2% and 3.6%, respectively.

It's also still the relatively early days of adoption. Pricing, lacking infrastructure, and macroeconomic factors will continue to influence buyers' uptake of EVs other than Teslas, the Cloud Theory report said.

"The EV leadership future is very much up for grabs, with no company currently holding a commanding position as a leading contender," it said.

EV efforts need to be like the moon landing

As a result, automakers are losing thousands per EV, and while Tesla isn't immune to that either (especially as the firm slashes its prices), Tesla is able to withstand that financial blow after years of building up its coffers selling EVs.

Legacy automakers can lean on their internal combustion engine businesses to absorb the hit, but the losses are stacking up.

"With auto manufacturers generally losing money on almost every EV they sell, squeezing margins further is a non-starter strategy," the report said. "The industry should not underestimate the scope and challenge of this transformation; it will take a concentrated focus and scope of effort akin to the Apollo moon landing or the Manhattan Project."

But even Tesla isn't immune to challenges, especially one key one: The China factor.

As such, Cloud Theory experts say: "No company — not even Tesla — is guaranteed a seat at the head table."