Find out if home prices in your state overvalued or undervalued
William Edwards
- Moody's economist Matthew Walsh says US home prices are 15.7% above their fundamental value.
- Some of the most overvalued states include Idaho, Tennessee, and North Carolina.
Moody's economist Matthew Walsh sees US home prices on a national basis as slightly overvalued.
According to the renowned market research firm's model, national median prices are currently 15.7% above their fundamental value, leading Walsh to believe they'll face another 4-4.5% decline in the coming months. The model accounts for variables like construction costs, household formation rates, and where home prices stand relative to median incomes. Nationally, homes are the least affordable relative to incomes that they've been in four decades, Walsh said.
But as the saying goes, all real estate is local, and some areas of the country are more overvalued than others. Below, we've listed where every state — plus Washington, DC — stood as of Q2 2023, according to Moody's model. We've also included their median home prices as of September, pulling data from Redfin.
Walsh said that he considers home prices in any state where they exceed their fundamental value by over 10% as "overvalued." The states are listed from the least to most overvalued.
1. Maryland
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): -9.17%
Median home price: $410,000
Source: Moody's and Redfin
2. California
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): -1.81%
Median home price: $789,000
Source: Moody's and Redfin
3. New York
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): -1.65%
Median home price: $491,500
Source: Moody's and Redfin
4. Illinois
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): -0.78%
Median home price: $272,600
Source: Moody's and Redfin
5. Alaska
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 2.37%
Median home price: $362,000
Source: Moody's and Redfin
6. West Virginia
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 3.79%
Median home price: $284,100
Source: Moody's and Redfin
7. Pennsylvania
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 4.74%
Median home price: $275,800
Source: Moody's and Redfin
8. Delaware
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 5.26%
Median home price: $342,600
Source: Moody's and Redfin
9. Mississippi
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 6.54%
Median home price: $258,200
Source: Moody's and Redfin
10. Connecticut
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 6.92%
Median home price: $388,200
Source: Moody's and Redfin
11. Washington, DC
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 7.26%
Median home price: $625,000
Source: Moody's and Redfin
12. New Jersey
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 7.84%
Median home price: $495,200
Source: Moody's and Redfin
13. Massachusetts
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 8.09%
Median (listed) home price: $730,000
Source: Moody's and Redfin
14. Washington
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 9.86%
Median home price: $603,000
Source: Moody's and Redfin
15. Louisiana
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 9.97%
Median home price: $242,500
Source: Moody's and Redfin
16. Iowa
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 10.85%
Median home price: $229,200
Source: Moody's and Redfin
17. New Hampshire
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 10.97%
Median home price: $470,400
Source: Moody's and Redfin
18. Oregon
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 12.38%
Median home price: $502,000
Source: Moody's and Redfin
19. Alabama
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 13.48%
Median home price: $276,200
Source: Moody's and Redfin
20. Arkansas
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 16.1%
Median home price: $257,400
Source: Moody's and Redfin
21. New Mexico
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 16.45%
Median home price: $367,400
Source: Moody's and Redfin
22. Montana
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 16.46%
Median home price: Redfin data unavailable
Source: Moody's and Redfin
23. Kentucky
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 16.9%
Median home price: $250,600
Source: Moody's and Redfin
24. Oklahoma
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 17.5%
Median home price: $236,000
Source: Moody's and Redfin
25. Ohio
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 17.79%
Median home price: $235,200
Source: Moody's and Redfin
26. North Dakota
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 17.82%
Median (listed) home price: $329,000
Source: Moody's and Redfin
27. Virginia
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 17.91%
Median home price: $413,500
Source: Moody's and Redfin
28. Rhode Island
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 18.67%
Median home price: $468,200
Source: Moody's and Redfin
29. Minnesota
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 20.2%
Median home price: $339,000
Source: Moody's and Redfin
30. Wyoming
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 22.03%
Median home price: $210,000
Source: Moody's and Redfin
31. Maine
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 21.76%
Median home price: $393,100
Source: Moody's and Redfin
32. Wisconsin
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 22.03%
Median home price: $297,800
Source: Moody's and Redfin
33. Vermont
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 22.63%
Median home price: $393,900
Source: Moody's and Redfin
34. Nebraska
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 23.64%
Median home price: $281,700
Source: Moody's and Redfin
35. Florida
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 23.99%
Median home price: $402,100
Source: Moody's and Redfin
36. Michigan
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 25.21%
Median home price: $254,600
Source: Moody's and Redfin
37. Missouri
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 25.4%
Median home price: $258,500
Source: Moody's and Redfin
38. Colorado
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 25.57%
Median home price: $612,200
Source: Moody's and Redfin
39. Texas
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 26.13%
Median home price: $348,300
Source: Moody's and Redfin
40. Utah
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 26.31%
Median home price: $566,900
Source: Moody's and Redfin
41. Kansas
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 27.35%
Median home price: $258,700
Source: Moody's and Redfin
42. South Dakota
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 29.02%
Median (listed) home price: $369,900
Source: Moody's and Redfin
43. Hawaii
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 29.63%
Median home price: $750,600
Source: Moody's and Redfin
44. Nevada
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 29.79%
Median home price: $437,300
Source: Moody's and Redfin
45. Arizona
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 30.08%
Median home price: $435,700
Source: Moody's and Redfin
46. Indiana
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 32.39%
Median home price: $249,700
Source: Moody's and Redfin
47. Georgia
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 32.92%
Median home price: $367,400
Source: Moody's and Redfin
48. South Carolina
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 37.33%
Median home price: $370,800
Source: Moody's and Redfin
49. North Carolina
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 37.66%
Median home price: $363,000
Source: Moody's and Redfin
50. Tennessee
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 40.81%
Median home price: $368,400
Source: Moody's and Redfin
51. Idaho
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 41.87%
Median home price: $467,000
Source: Moody's and Redfin
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