Car prices aren't going down. Automakers are just finally building something other than expensive trucks.

• Individual vehicle prices aren't going down, but the average car price is overall.
• That's because automakers are mixing up vehicle types and trims, according to analysts at AlixPartners.

Car prices could fall by about 7% by 2025, providing some much-needed relief for car shoppers after years of jacked-up prices, according to consultancy AlixPartners. But the drop won't be the result of individual vehicles getting cheaper.

The average transaction price of a new vehicle is hovering around $46,000 today (including existing incentives), per AlixPartners. That's up more than 25% from a pre-pandemic price tag of $36,400 in 2019 — the result of sticker price increases, fewer deals, and automakers focusing on the money-making models and trims.

But that could fall to closer to $42,000 in two years.

The reason isn't that automakers are going to make cars themselves any less expensive. What's actually happening is a change in the vehicle types and trim levels that car companies are pushing, plus a resurgence in incentives.

The dynamics don't "mean the price of the same vehicle comes down," Mark Wakefield, global co-leader of the automotive & industrial practice at AlixPartners, said press conference. Instead, "the predominant driver of that is mix shift and trim shift within a product to reduce the higher, more profitable vehicles and get more volume out."

Simply put, in addition to building the $80,000-plus pickup or SUV chock-full of the top equipment and tech afforded by the highest trim levels available, automakers are starting to diversify their offerings.

There might be multiple trims available for the same vehicle, providing more options to consumers than they've had in recent years. There might also be more options than simply luxury or higher-end vehicles, resulting in a blanket drop in average auto-buying prices.

Another element is incentives. Pre-COVID, incentives were as much as 10 to 12% of a vehicle's purchase price, per AlixPartners' data. During the pandemic, that fell to between 2 and 4%.

But as the macroeconomic environment shifts, interest rates remain high, and buying demand evolves, excess inventory is starting to be found on dealership lots (which dealers aren't used to anymore). Now, incentives are creeping back and hovering over 4%, which AlixPartners expects will continue to increase, crawling up to 8% in the next two years.

Major strategy shift by carmakers

It's a change in strategy by the auto industry, which has been prioritizing high-margin vehicles to snag profits rather than market share in recent years.

Car companies learned they could sell more expensive vehicles and vehicles at higher prices overall, especially during the vehicle supply-and-demand scare brought on by the pandemic.

The chip shortage was especially to blame. With a limited supply of chips, automakers opted to allocate those crucial parts to the vehicles that would make them the most money. As that supply recovers and car companies have more chips at their disposal, they don't have to make those decisions. Now, they have the ability, and market indicators, to build base vehicle models yet again.