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- An estimate from Morgan Stanley is that 50% of the workforce could be back at work in the summer.
- Workers would come back in stages, with the "first wave" being people who have recovered from the virus, as well as the young and healthy, the researchers said.
- "Variable levels of social distancing" are expected to remain in place until spring 2021, when a vaccine would likely be widely available, the researchers said.
- People should expect the virus to come back in waves, as early as this fall, they said.
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Half of the United States' workforce could be back at work this summer, according to researchers from Morgan Stanley.
"We see a maximum of 50% of employees being allowed back in the office over the summer months," Morgan Stanley researchers said. Workers would be expected to come back in stages, with the "first wave" being people who have recovered from COVID-19, as well as younger, healthier workers.
Social distancing to some extent is likely to remain in place until spring 2021, they said, when a vaccine is likely to be widely available.
The researchers said that schools should be reopened in the fall "as kids do not appear to be significant vectors for disease spread."
But, they cautioned people to "expect new waves of infection to arrive, as early as this fall. Those new waves will require variable levels of social distancing that are turned on or off depending on the level of the outbreak."
On March 29, President Donald Trump extended social distancing deadlines through the end of April, giving Americans a clearer scope of the severity of the coronavirus crisis. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, Trump anticipates that the country will be in the process of recovering from the pandemic by June 1.
But predictions like Morgan Stanley's are a stark reminder that it will take time before things go back to how they were prior to the outbreak. In fact, some health experts say we may be dealing with the effects of the pandemic for the next 12 to 18 months.
As Business Insider's Blake Dodge reported, Morgan Stanley recently tripled its projected coronavirus caseload in the US to 570,000, up from 200,000 just two weeks earlier. Researchers at the bank don't expect to see a slowdown until the end of April. Researchers at the bank also fear that if the US doesn't increase quarantine measures, the middle of the country could become the next breeding ground for the virus and reinfect coastal cities.
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