- Recently released US Census data shows there is no ethnic majority for children in the country.
- Experts told Insider "the nation is maturing into diversity," a claim supported survey data.
- New questions added to the Census make it difficult to determine the extent of diversity increases.
There is no longer an ethnic majority among children in America, according to the new 2020 data from the US Census Bureau, a statistic that, according to experts, could have far-reaching political implications.
The share of non-Hispanic white youth in the US dropped from 53.5% to 47.3% between 2010 and 2020, according to the data.
The overall white population of the US actually dropped 5.9% over the past decade, with Hispanic and Asian Americans some of the only ethnic groups in the US to increase in population
Data from the American Community Survey, a US project similar to the US Census that collects demographics data on an annual basis, shows that the Census's findings are a part of a much larger trend that spans all age groups.
The country as a whole is diversifying
Steven Martin, a senior research associate at the Urban Institute, told Insider that it isn't just the youngest generation that's diversifying, but the whole country.
"The increasing diversity of the nation is really a story across all age groups," Martin said. "Our nation is maturing into diversity and seeing people who were already here moving into age groups that were less diverse in the past."
"Our analysis of the 2020 Census results show that the US population is much more multiracial, and more racially and ethnically diverse than what we measured in the past," said Nicholas Jones, US Census Bureau's Population Division
Martin pointed to additional ACS data from the last decade that shows the 45 to 64 years old age group is rapidly becoming even more multicultural than those younger than 18.
While the share of under-18 Americans identifying as non-Hispanic and White decreased 3.4%, the share of 45 to 64-year-olds decreased nearly double that: 6.2%. Every age group of the non-Hispanic and White populace is shrinking in size as other ethnicities grow.
The new Census data may be somewhat misleading
While the larger Census and ACS data certainly show that there was an increase in non-white ethnicities, the exact numbers are unclear due to changes in how race and ethnicity questions were posed in the 2020 Census.
According to the US Census' website, the details behind two questions were revised to better articulate the survey respondent's and their household's race and ethnicity. The changes were minor, however the Census Bureau claims they made a noticeable difference.
Our analysis of the 2020 Census results show that the US population is much more multiracial, and more racially and ethnically diverse than what we measured in the past.
Nicholas Jones, US Census Bureau's Population Division
Martin said that the survey changes make it difficult to fully understand what in the data is a result of an actual population change and what is the result of a change in data collection.
"It does appear that certain aspects of that information did a better job of capturing the multi-racial and Hispanic populations than in the past, Martin said, "but it can be difficult to distinguish a demographic trend from an update in the way the information was coded."
The political implications of more diversity
Every state relies on Census data to update the shape of each of its districts to best fit a changing populace.The practice, however, can lead to what's known as gerrymandering, or changing the boundaries of an electoral district for political gain. The Republican Party has a state government trifecta - a Republican governor and majority-GOP senate and house - in 23 states compared to the Democratic Party's 15. There are 12 states that neither party wholly controls.
With full control over the redistricting in nearly half of the states, Republicans have an immense leg up in shaping the makeup of the US House of Representatives through partisan redistricting. An increasing number of states, however, are relying on independent advisory commissions for that task.
It's sometimes assumed that a more diverse electorate will lead to more liberal voters. Even as white share of the electorate steadily decreases, data from the 2020 US presidential election may prove the theory isn't so simple.
Census Bureau data shows that voter turnout among each ethnicity increased between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, with record turnout at the polls among every non-Hispanic, white group.
But according to Catalist, a Democratic-leaning database company, President Joe Biden actually received less of the vote among Latino, Black, and Asian communities than Hillary Clinton received in the 2016 election - despite a more multicultural electorate.
Some Democrats laid the blame for low Democratic Hispanic-voter turnout on pandemic restrictions. Gilbert Hinojosa, Texas Democratic Party Chair, confirmed the party sentiment to NBC News in February.
"Our inability to campaign was really devastating for us, especially with our main base," Hinojosa said. "Our main base is Latino voters, and they do not take well to mail and texting contact."
A study of Latino participation rates in the 2020 election from the City University of New York, however, suggests the Democratic Party may have a messaging problem as 3.8 million more Hispanic people voted in the election in 2020 than in 2016.