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6 global cities most at risk of being in a real-estate bubble, according to UBS

<p class="ingestion featured-caption">Miami, Florida.Alexander Demyanenko/Shutterstock</p><ul class="summary-list"><li>UBS's 2024 Global Real-Estate Bubble Index shows a decline in bubble risks over the last 12 months.</li><li>Only six cities are now at elevated or high risk, down from 16 last year.</li></ul><p>UBS released its 2024 <a target="_blank" class href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-cities-most-overvalued-home-prices-bubble-index-ubs-2023-9">Global Real-Estate Bubble Index</a> report last week, and it showed bubble risks have generally declined over the last 12 months.</p><p>While 16 cities worldwide were considered to be at elevated or high risk of a real-estate bubble last year, just six cities fit that description today, the report said. That's thanks to falling home prices in many cities that were considered overextended in 2023.</p><p>"Inflation-adjusted housing prices in the cities analyzed are now, on average, roughly 15% lower than in mid-2022, when interest rates started to surge globally," the report's authors, Claudio Saputelli and Matthias Holzhey, wrote.</p><p>"The cities recording the strongest price corrections are those that displayed a high risk of a real estate bubble in previous years," they continued. "Real prices in Frankfurt, Munich, Stockholm, Hong Kong, and Paris are 20% or more below their post-pandemic peaks."</p><p>To create its index, UBS considered local home price-to-income ratios, price-to-rent ratios, mortgage-to-GDP ratios, new construction-to-GDP ratios, and the ratio of home prices in a particular city compared to the rest of its country.</p><p>Cities with a score above 1.0 are considered to be at an elevated risk, and those with a score above 1.5 are considered high risk.</p><p>The six cities with scores above 1.0 are listed below in ascending order. Last year's score is also included.</p>
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