18 cities with reasonably priced homes that will be million-dollar markets in the next decade
James Faris
- Home prices have soared in the last decade, so buyers get less for their money than they once did.
- Although home affordability is an issue, property prices will almost certainly keep rising.
Million-dollar houses aren't what they used to be, as homebuyers across the US can attest.
Gone are the days when seven-figure sums are automatically associated with massive homes on picturesque properties. In fact, in some of the nation's competitive markets, $1 million is nothing more than the price of admission to home ownership.
US property values have soared since the financial crisis during a widespread housing shortage that created a home affordability crisis for buyers. The multi-decade-high inflation surge during and after the pandemic also contributed to home-price appreciation.
This housing-market boom is best exemplified by major cities in California, like Los Angeles and San Francisco. The median cost of a home in those markets has nearly doubled in the last decade — from $420,300 in 2014 to $854,800 now and $769,600 to $1,449,000, respectively, according to data from the National Association of Realtors cited by real-estate site Zoocasa.
Most homebuyers will be out of luck looking in the Golden State, which has seven of the 10 priciest housing markets in the US and will soon have four cities where the typical single-family home costs more than $2 million — including San Jose, San Francisco's Bay Area neighbor.
Persistent property-price growth means that home affordability will likely remain stretched, even as mortgage rates recede to lower levels. That means buyers may still have limited options.
"As prices creep up higher and higher, future home buyers may look outside of these large metros if income growth doesn't start to keep pace with the cost of housing," wrote Zoocasa's Mackenzie Scibetta in a mid-October report.
Though many families will be priced out of this market, those who can swing a home purchase may want to consider it before property prices rise even further in the coming decade.
"While rising prices may seem daunting, they also offer the promise of long-term equity gains, providing stability and a solid return on investment down the road," Scibetta wrote.
18 top cities for real-estate investorsNo real-estate analyst can predict exactly how much or how quickly home prices will rise, though past gains can be a solid harbinger of what's ahead.
With that in mind, Zoocasa researchers compiled data on single-family home price growth from 40 large US markets dating back to 2014, and then extrapolated them out over the next decade to estimate when cities would see their median home prices breach the $1 million mark.
Factors like interest rates and the economic climate will certainly change, though this can be a solid starting point for buyers or real-estate investors who are comparing markets to buy in.
"While growth rates offer a helpful estimate, they may not hold steady if the market experiences drastic changes," Scibetta wrote. "However, they can still provide a general sense of where prices could head in the future."
Of the 40 metropolitan areas used in this analysis, Business Insider limited the list to cities that are within 50% of the US median home price, which was $422,100 in the second quarter, according to the National Association of Realtors. That means the cutoff point was $633,150.
Below are 18 cities with homes that cost $633,150 or less in Q2 that are set to be million-dollar markets by the end of 2035, sorted by which will reach the $1 million threshold the fastest. Along with each reasonably priced real-estate market is its median home price and projections for the years ahead, as well as the home price growth rate from 2014 to 2024 that it's based on.
1. Reno, Nevada
Median home price in Q2 2024: $620,400
Median home price estimate for 2025: $683,680
Median home price estimate for 2026: $753,415
Median home price estimate for 2027: $830,263
Median home price estimate for 2028: $914,950
Median home price estimate for 2029: $1,008,275
Home price growth rate from 2014-24: 10.2%
Source: Zoocasa, National Association of Realtors
2. Riverside, California
Median home price in Q2 2024: $600,000
Median home price estimate for 2025: $654,000
Median home price estimate for 2026: $712,860
Median home price estimate for 2027: $777,017
Median home price estimate for 2028: $846,949
Median home price estimate for 2029: $923,174
Median home price estimate for 2030: $1,006,260
Home price growth rate from 2014-24: 9%
Source: Zoocasa, National Association of Realtors
3. Manchester, New Hampshire
Median home price in Q2 2024: $568,700
Median home price estimate for 2025: $617,608
Median home price estimate for 2026: $670,722
Median home price estimate for 2027: $728,404
Median home price estimate for 2028: $791,047
Median home price estimate for 2029: $859,077
Median home price estimate for 2030: $932,958
Median home price estimate for 2031: $1,013,192
Home price growth rate from 2014-24: 8.6%
Source: Zoocasa, National Association of Realtors
4. Portland, Oregon
Median home price in Q2 2024: $608,500
Median home price estimate for 2025: $657,789
Median home price estimate for 2026: $711,070
Median home price estimate for 2027: $768,667
Median home price estimate for 2028: $830,929
Median home price estimate for 2029: $898,234
Median home price estimate for 2030: $970,991
Median home price estimate for 2031: $1,049,641
Home price growth rate from 2014-24: 8.1%
Source: Zoocasa, National Association of Realtors
5. Portland, Maine
Median home price in Q2 2024: $566,400
Median home price estimate for 2025: $615,110
Median home price estimate for 2026: $668,009
Median home price estimate for 2027: $725,458
Median home price estimate for 2028: $787,847
Median home price estimate for 2029: $855,602
Median home price estimate for 2030: $929,184
Median home price estimate for 2031: $1,009,094
Home price growth rate from 2014-24: 8.6%
Source: Zoocasa, National Association of Realtors
6. Sacramento, California
Median home price in Q2 2024: $555,000
Median home price estimate for 2025: $606,060
Median home price estimate for 2026: $661,818
Median home price estimate for 2027: $722,705
Median home price estimate for 2028: $789,194
Median home price estimate for 2029: $861,800
Median home price estimate for 2030: $941,086
Median home price estimate for 2031: $1,027,666
Home price growth rate from 2014-24: 9.2%
Source: Zoocasa, National Association of Realtors
7. Salt Lake City, Utah
Median home price in Q2 2024: $583,200
Median home price estimate for 2025: $635,688
Median home price estimate for 2026: $692,899
Median home price estimate for 2027: $755,260
Median home price estimate for 2028: $823,233
Median home price estimate for 2029: $897,324
Median home price estimate for 2030: $978,083
Median home price estimate for 2031: $1,066,110
Home price growth rate from 2014-24: 9%
Source: Zoocasa, National Association of Realtors
8. North Port, Florida
Median home price in Q2 2024: $525,000
Median home price estimate for 2025: $575,925
Median home price estimate for 2026: $631,790
Median home price estimate for 2027: $693,073
Median home price estimate for 2028: $760,301
Median home price estimate for 2029: $834,050
Median home price estimate for 2030: $914,953
Median home price estimate for 2031: $1,003,703
Home price growth rate from 2014-24: 9.7%
Source: Zoocasa, National Association of Realtors
9. Boise, Idaho
Median home price in Q2 2024: $510,700
Median home price estimate for 2025: $566,877
Median home price estimate for 2026: $629,233
Median home price estimate for 2027: $698,449
Median home price estimate for 2028: $775,278
Median home price estimate for 2029: $860,559
Median home price estimate for 2030: $955,220
Median home price estimate for 2031: $1,060,294
Home price growth rate from 2014-24: 11.1%
Source: Zoocasa, National Association of Realtors
10. Las Vegas, Nevada
Median home price in Q2 2024: $478,800
Median home price estimate for 2025: $527,159
Median home price estimate for 2026: $580,402
Median home price estimate for 2027: $639,023
Median home price estimate for 2028: $703,564
Median home price estimate for 2029: $774,624
Median home price estimate for 2030: $852,861
Median home price estimate for 2031: $938,999
Median home price estimate for 2032: $1,033,838
Home price growth rate from 2014-24: 10.1%
Source: Zoocasa, National Association of Realtors
11. Austin, Texas
Median home price in Q2 2024: $496,500
Median home price estimate for 2025: $537,213
Median home price estimate for 2026: $581,265
Median home price estimate for 2027: $628,929
Median home price estimate for 2028: $680,501
Median home price estimate for 2029: $736,302
Median home price estimate for 2030: $796,679
Median home price estimate for 2031: $862,007
Median home price estimate for 2032: $932,692
Median home price estimate for 2033: $1,009,173
Home price growth rate from 2014-24: 8.2%
Source: Zoocasa, National Association of Realtors
12. Phoenix, Arizona
Median home price in Q2 2024: $480,400
Median home price estimate for 2025: $526,038
Median home price estimate for 2026: $576,012
Median home price estimate for 2027: $630,733
Median home price estimate for 2028: $690,653
Median home price estimate for 2029: $756,265
Median home price estimate for 2030: $828,110
Median home price estimate for 2031: $906,780
Median home price estimate for 2032: $992,924
Median home price estimate for 2033: $1,087,252
Home price growth rate from 2014-24: 9.5%
Source: Zoocasa, National Association of Realtors
13. Eugene, Oregon
Median home price in Q2 2024: $469,100
Median home price estimate for 2025: $512,726
Median home price estimate for 2026: $560,410
Median home price estimate for 2027: $612,528
Median home price estimate for 2028: $669,493
Median home price estimate for 2029: $731,756
Median home price estimate for 2030: $799,809
Median home price estimate for 2031: $874,191
Median home price estimate for 2032: $955,491
Median home price estimate for 2033: $1,044,352
Home price growth rate from 2014-24: 9.3%
Source: Zoocasa, National Association of Realtors
14. Raleigh, North Carolina
Median home price in Q2 2024: $484,900
Median home price estimate for 2025: $527,086
Median home price estimate for 2026: $572,942
Median home price estimate for 2027: $622,788
Median home price estimate for 2028: $676,971
Median home price estimate for 2029: $735,867
Median home price estimate for 2030: $799,887
Median home price estimate for 2031: $869,477
Median home price estimate for 2032: $945,121
Median home price estimate for 2033: $1,027,347
Home price growth rate from 2014-24: 8.7%
Source: Zoocasa, National Association of Realtors
15. Salem, Oregon
Median home price in Q2 2024: $456,100
Median home price estimate for 2025: $502,622
Median home price estimate for 2026: $553,889
Median home price estimate for 2027: $610,386
Median home price estimate for 2028: $672,645
Median home price estimate for 2029: $741,255
Median home price estimate for 2030: $816,863
Median home price estimate for 2031: $900,183
Median home price estimate for 2032: $992,002
Median home price estimate for 2033: $1,093,186
Home price growth rate from 2014-24: 10.2%
Source: Zoocasa, National Association of Realtors
16. Durham, North Carolina
Median home price in Q2 2024: $477,600
Median home price estimate for 2025: $517,241
Median home price estimate for 2026: $560,172
Median home price estimate for 2027: $606,666
Median home price estimate for 2028: $657,019
Median home price estimate for 2029: $711,552
Median home price estimate for 2030: $770,612
Median home price estimate for 2031: $834,573
Median home price estimate for 2032: $903,843
Median home price estimate for 2033: $978,862
Median home price estimate for 2034: $1,060,108
Home price growth rate from 2014-24: 8.3%
Source: Zoocasa, National Association of Realtors
17. Providence, Rhode Island
Median home price in Q2 2024: $504,800
Median home price estimate for 2025: $542,155
Median home price estimate for 2026: $582,274
Median home price estimate for 2027: $625,362
Median home price estimate for 2028: $671,639
Median home price estimate for 2029: $721,340
Median home price estimate for 2030: $774,719
Median home price estimate for 2031: $832,048
Median home price estimate for 2032: $893,620
Median home price estimate for 2033: $959,748
Median home price estimate for 2034: $1,030,769
Home price growth rate from 2014-24: 7.4%
Source: Zoocasa, National Association of Realtors
18. Wilmington, North Carolina
Median home price in Q2 2024: $467,400
Median home price estimate for 2025: $504,792
Median home price estimate for 2026: $545,175
Median home price estimate for 2027: $588,789
Median home price estimate for 2028: $635,892
Median home price estimate for 2029: $686,763
Median home price estimate for 2030: $741,704
Median home price estimate for 2031: $801,040
Median home price estimate for 2032: $865,123
Median home price estimate for 2033: $934,333
Median home price estimate for 2034: $1,009,080
Home price growth rate from 2014-24: 8%
Source: Zoocasa, National Association of Realtors
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