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Even though the official market consensus forecast for today’s payrolls report has now fallen slightly below our forecast of 195K to 190K, recent positioning in the markets (captured by the dramatic rally in Treasures) suggests that the “whisper number” may be for something far weaker—closer to 150K. In fact, the forecast revisions in the Bloomberg survey over the past two days have ranged between 124K and 190K, with a median entry of 175K, well below the consensus forecast of 200K at the beginning of the week. While some of the move lower in yields is attributable to the geopolitical concerns on the Korean peninsula, the last leg down in employment expectations and yields has come following the unexpected sharp rise in the pace of weekly jobless claims, which showed the biggest weekly gain since November.
For a full guide to tomorrow's jobs report, see Matthew Boesler's preview here.