The US Will Reach Smartphone Saturation Sometime In 2015
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The Late Majority Of US Smartphone Adoption Will End In 2015 (Asymco)
Horace Dediu of Asymco surveyed the state of the U.S. smartphone market after comScore data revealed that smartphone penetration ticked up in the three months through August 2013 to about 61%.
Dediu then applies the "Logistic Function" to calculate a proper U.S. smartphone penetration curve, while also identifying at what points in time (and based on what smartphone releases) groups from Everett Rodgers "Diffusion of Innovations" theory took to smartphone adoption.
- The Innovators (first 2.5% of the market) took to the market by February 2007.
- The Early Adopters (next 13.5% of the market) had purchased smartphones by early 2010.
- The Early Majority (next 34%) had smartphones by October 2012.
- The Late Majority (next 34%) will run out by November 2015.
After November 2015, some remaining laggards will come aboard, but the U.S. smartphone market will be essentially saturated at that point.
From now until then, it'll be important to see how market shares of each of the U.S. platforms fill out. Right now, Android seems to have peaked while Apple is slowly gaining. Read >
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